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Silver Surge #2 Imminent?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Here it comes again, courtesy of Google Trends. We will shortly start taking bets how many hours will pass before the CME hikes silver margins by another 100%, despite not lowering them once in the spot price drop from $50 to $32 over the past two months.

h/t Mongo

 

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Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:06 | 1467780 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

40/1 today

5/1 at the peak

15/1 equilibrium

ok, and i'll guess when :

2011 , 2015 , 2025

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:01 | 1467757 Sofa King
Sofa King's picture

Plenty of Gold for a Gold Standard.  The deep asset devaluation will hurt but then again, why shouldn't everyone feel a little pain.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:15 | 1467821 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

You don't need any Au for a gold standard... Just empty vaults where you SAY the bricks are stashed (then you issue more paper or electrons off that)...

All u need is a really good con... But it never hurts to actually have the bricks... Wouldn't want to store them in vaults though... More like, the secret family basement...

 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 17:31 | 1468056 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I haven't done that since college. Can i say that? Unless u meant something else in which case "yes."

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 21:00 | 1468649 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 driving by looking in the rear view mirror. It's not quite that simple.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 15:48 | 1467707 unky
unky's picture

i think they will wait until friday, let silver climb until 42.50$ then come up with some margin hikes (because "increased vol") and at the same time the debt ceiling will be raised with maybe $2 trillion in cuts. then the may 2nd will repeat and silver will come down by $6.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:12 | 1467806 Jambo Mambo Bill
Jambo Mambo Bill's picture

Right!

With gold at 1600 and silver the absurd 40, next stop for silver should be at least 350! Silver droping to 6? Only in your dreams!

I silver ever get back to 35 I would change all my tequila for it!

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:17 | 1467830 fuu
fuu's picture

He said drop by $6 not down to $6.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 17:19 | 1468015 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

And very possible, I keep watching it over and over. Around the 26th =/- it will drop. Then it will pop again, trending higher. I don't program computers, trade, or nothing, all I have to do is watch to know these things. Disaster followed by fake solution or distraction, followed by disaster again. 

SAVOR YOUR SILVER

HOLD YOUR GOLD

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 20:22 | 1468524 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

"HOLD YOUR GOLD"

---

GoldMEMBER bitchez!... Hold on as tight as you can...

 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 21:56 | 1468808 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Not too tight, you will leave impressions into the metal.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:04 | 1467759 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

I truely hope they raise margin requirements again. I have some serious dry powder standing by. Buy the dips!!! If you buy physical, JPM is your friend!!!! Oh by the way, Silver spot price is now above JPM's stock price. Someone wrote awhile back that was bad for JPM and they would pull-out all the stops to prevent it.....to be cont.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:09 | 1467796 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

the original "silver bullet" dude.  and tonto.  suitable for framing.

lr & tonto pic

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:18 | 1467828 Jambo Mambo Bill
Jambo Mambo Bill's picture

Silver biches !

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:21 | 1467844 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

True, but their fiat system is going to implode either way.  Do they allow silver and gold to rise without any resistance or do they attack it one final time while they still can?

With HKMEX launching their silver contracts this Friday I would be SHOCKED if the banksters didn't attack one last time.  T-minus 3 days until COMEX no longer dictates silver prices.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:18 | 1467833 Jambo Mambo Bill
Jambo Mambo Bill's picture

Another margin raise game and would be the end of the system as we know it! Silver ain't a US thing! The Chinese stuffed US with the rare metals and if the States keed playing with silver they gona end up losing it all.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:33 | 1467875 FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

I'll get interested when it breaks above old highs.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 21:06 | 1468668 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 This is why amateurs lose and lose in most major markets. You can't trend follow in Silver or Gold. Buy the dips is what you do in a bull market. I published my last purchase here in plain English; $33.75 basis December contract on the comex; it was only a short while ago. I've been beating the Comex like a child for years; I'll publish the next time I want to buy. It's not now, because the rally is too new and there hasn't been any reaction. 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:36 | 1467884 caerus
caerus's picture

Just got back from bouillion store in TX.  Bought the last of their Ag eagles.  Other three people there were "seniors" selling their silver.  "seniors selling their silver" say that three times fast...

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:42 | 1467903 akak
akak's picture

Correction: seniors selling their financial insurance and their futures, and guaranteeing themselves some delightful cat food dinners down the road --- if they are lucky.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:53 | 1467941 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Says a lot about our society when even our ELDERS have no idea what the hell is going on in the world.  Makes sense though.  They care more about the Price is Right and their stories.  Every age group is fucked.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:57 | 1467952 akak
akak's picture

I thought I was poor because I had no gold, until I met a decrepit retirement home full of seniors who had no silver.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 21:09 | 1468679 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 US %90 silver coins are still available in bags from several vendors on the internet. You can open an account at Bullionvault.com, also on the internet, and use it for a savings account, put money in until it's time to buy a dip; it's real silver bullion it's a completely transparent business model. You can read all about it on their website.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 18:19 | 1468182 delacroix
delacroix's picture

top ramen (the new catfood)

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 16:59 | 1467965 lubyanka
lubyanka's picture

looking at some silver puts. margin hike will provide me with some $$$ to buy more physical. irony, bitchez

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 17:02 | 1467974 augie
augie's picture

i'm not an expert but I know one who is.

 http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/1638/another-winner

 

Be careful with the puts. 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 21:11 | 1468683 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 this is very poor reasoning.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 17:27 | 1468040 lawrence1
lawrence1's picture

Bought another 100 oz physical at $ 36, going to keep on buying.  Not going to try to time.  What a few percentage points when its headed to a hundred and more.  If the paper gets beat down a bunch, Ill be selling everything else to buy more, but dont think thats going to happen again.  May not be available at these cheap prices for long.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 18:24 | 1468198 delacroix
delacroix's picture

this weekend, the coinshop I frequent, lowered their premium, on generic bullion, from $1.50, to $1.00. I calculated a tank of gas, and a trip to the grocery store, and spent the rest on 1 oz coins. I'll probably do the same next week. and the week after, etc, until they don't have any more.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 17:44 | 1468099 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 17:44 | 1468100 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 18:44 | 1468250 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

XAU  +2.52
HUI    +9.25
TSX Gold + 8.43

now, the first phase of the rocket falls away as the second stage ignites flawlessly, taking the precious payload into freaking orbit

too simple?

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 18:49 | 1468261 Fred C Dobbs
Fred C Dobbs's picture

Any experts here have looked at a calender and see when the next coordinated takedown of silver will occur?  Any Monday Holidays, elections, for example or will they wait for a natural catastrophe or a funeral?  Or a big slide in the stock market? Any thoughts?

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 19:01 | 1468299 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

according to jon nadler's piece today, prob by wednesday. 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 19:42 | 1468415 vamoose1
vamoose1's picture

Thats nadless slewie,  not nadler,  and he may be be drifting along soon,  Kitco is in receivership, and owe the Combined Quebec and canadian Governments over 500 million,  nothing serious,  but nadless could certainly find a spot shilling for the Morgue.In fact they probably pay him now.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 19:03 | 1468305 caerus
caerus's picture

As some have already mentioned, the gold/silver ratio appears poised for imminent compression...in other words, gold down, silver up...too much to say about this here but if you're interested look it up.  IMO don't worry so much about causality as 1) its nearly impossible to prove anyway 2) even if you could it would probably be too late as the move has passed you by...instead watch the prices, get a feel for the repeated movements.  even more simply, wait to buy your Ag till after a too steep run settles down.  people lie, numbers dont.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 19:35 | 1468390 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

yes.  GSR = below 40 again, for the first time in a while.

here's a nice silver chart from w.bevan: Kitco - Commentaries - Warren Bevan  he puts the next resistance @ 41.16 (i'm looking @ 40.53 right now).

according to this chart, Ag's "settle down" buying point now = $39.08. 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 19:45 | 1468425 caerus
caerus's picture

livermore already took "pivotal point" he has alliteration, i have folksy talk and aqua vitae

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 21:09 | 1468678 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

does anybody have an E harp?

an E harp?  anybody? 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 21:14 | 1468693 caerus
caerus's picture

I gots a geetar

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 20:54 | 1468628 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

"Any Monday Holidays, elections, for example or will they wait for a natural catastrophe or a funeral?"

As soon as they dredge Bin Laden's "frankensence & myhrr" scented & linen wrapped corpse out of the Indian Ocean & shoot him in the back again... 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 21:22 | 1468712 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 It doesn't take an expert to detect holidays; you look up the business holidays for UK and US and mark them on your calendar. Natural Catast. negative. funeral. negative. stock market, no known correllation. Watch the Kitco chart on Fridays when London closes, some times they push the price down to create a local buying opportunity for themselves. Probably not this Friday because the market is really strong right now; maybe next Friday if things cool off a little. When the LBMA closes on Friday New York gets to play for awhile. Sometimes the little waterfalls seem to come out of the blue; check the price chart a few times a day; the explanations in the news are bullshit; all you're interested in is the price.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 20:04 | 1468475 economists_do_i...
economists_do_it_with_models's picture

I think there will soon be a dip that many of you desire to provide another buying opportunity.

I like the idea about taking profits from paper shorts to finance the purchase of the physical.  Free money.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 22:47 | 1468944 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I may be so bold and say that the dips no longer matter. Not this close to a event horizion fast approaching in our Nation's History.

If you got the horses, do it.

I don't know who made this up, but "Fortune Favors the Bold" I say.

 

Say this to yourself.

"I am no longer SHEEP."

"I decide what my future is, no one else." Unless of course you face Justice for a crime or whatever you may have done here in this world or beyond with God on the other side.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 20:05 | 1468476 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

I'm going to predict that a margin hike of the same magnitude as May is unlikely.  Why?  Credibility.  The whole fiat system is based on credibility, and that is why metals are the enemy.  Appreciating metals damage the credibility of the dollar.  Raising margins again on silver, due to "volatility", is a real stretch, and would also damage credibility and faith in the system... possibly more than higher silver prices.  They were playing with fire last time.   Now, they may have reached a point of diminishing returns. 

Or maybe i underestimate their hubris.   

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 20:38 | 1468576 caerus
caerus's picture

prob is they haven't lowered their earlier hikes...eventually they'll get to the point where strong hands are putting up 100% and they can't deliver...

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 22:02 | 1468834 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

And someone will scream "Bullshite! Stop this thing NOOOOW!!" from the depths of the vault before breaking the level off.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebAkXuOk9rg

 

You are never truly reamed until someone breaks it off inside you.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 22:07 | 1468847 exiledbear
exiledbear's picture

Nah, they can't play that card again for a while. Or every time they do, they strengthen the remainsing hands that remain long. And then the next wave up, they have to fight the buying power that much more. If they're smart, they'll only play it a few times each year. If they're stupid, they use it all the time, the markets will adapt and become immune to it.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 22:35 | 1468920 gall batter
gall batter's picture

i'm becoming paranoid.  i don't think it's a great idea to talk about acquiring silver and gold or writing here or anywhere that you've cashed out your retirement, pd the penalty and taxes, and have bought PMs.  just sayin'.  

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 22:44 | 1468942 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

There is no law against paranoia.

It is easier to talk about the Gold and Silver in general terms here. Particularly when you consider that I for one, have ammunition, preparations and weapon for defense of home in a state that says Castle Doctrine. Plus insurance and other resources if that same is exercised against a home invader.

There is a system in place where a specific request for subpoena may be made to your ISP and a identification made on your particular machine when you are online by IP number and subnet.

Just keep in mind that my holdings are pathetically small compare to those here who have thousands on hand. And am not much of a target that way to anyone. If we paid taxes? Great. If we are not subject to the grasping hands of Uncle Sam that is ok too. Howeverr..

You will do well to study History from our Colonial Money all the way through to the Civil War (Greenbacks) and eventually the Gold Confisication in the 30's

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 02:45 | 1469342 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

well, go with the flow
scare the shit outa yerself, g_b
when we make new "connections"
we sometimes have different memories?

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 05:29 | 1469403 Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

'...and the funny thing is, Mr. Zacchaeus, I JUST got back from Tahoe and the slots weren't kind to me...sorry.'

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