Silver Undergoes 10% Correction As Dollar Poundage Resumes; Dollar-Backed Swiss Franc Now Flight To Safety

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Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:28 | 1206909 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Options expiry today... duh, could that have something to do with the shorts piling in? Haven't we seen this movie countless times?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:30 | 1206911 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Yup. It usually ends with a month of mountain climbing to k2 or something.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:02 | 1206947 dlmaniac
dlmaniac's picture

I smell BTFD in the air.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:31 | 1206985 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

What good is a dip if the shelves are empty.

It's like an empty grocery store sending out thousands of coupons.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:18 | 1207029 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

It's not empty at all, there is silver everywhere in your quantities..

I'm not sure what planet people are on. Just because Turk says there isn;t any isn;t true people. He's talking about big volume. They just won't pay the price nor the premium.

Scotia Mocatta has them all. It is the big guys who suffer not you guys who buy 2-5 ounces.

 

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:56 | 1207079 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ya sucks to be a dinosaur. They make nice museums though.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:02 | 1207083 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Agreed, silver is still available in various forms at www.tulving.com and www.apmex.com plus others.

BTFD and always take physical delivery.

What we are seeing is normal high volatility... like a rat in a cage desperately trying to get out. This pattern we are seeing is the new normal considering contract expiry, which usually makes for a good entry point to catch the next leg up.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:18 | 1207231 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

tulving out. apmex out.  now what?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:30 | 1206912 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

That 49.79 print was barely a real price. I guess comparable to the USDJPY flash-crash..

100% agree on the Chief, that sucker's done. How much pain will the shorts endure? It will be worth it if they can hold out a bit longer.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:37 | 1206916 ivars
ivars's picture

I told you yesterday we are in correction ( crash) .  More to come:

http://www.saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a...

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:04 | 1206949 Fred C Dobbs
Fred C Dobbs's picture

Turd Ferguson's prediction was closer.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:22 | 1206971 ivars
ivars's picture

You mean the value at the top? I expanded it after some deliberation here to include the range 42-50 but  did not put into graph- too complicated:

http://www.saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a...

Timing- I made the graph on March 13th, predicted top  22 days and 5 USD (45) early. My bad.

 

 

 

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:53 | 1207001 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

So you've made a ton of dollars in the silver trade? You're crystal ball is the best in the land? LOL... troll on clueless... wake me when the dollar strengthens. The fundamentals have not changed, the dollar is still being trashed by QE, and silver continues to be in backwardation.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:40 | 1206920 akak
akak's picture

Where is MomoTrader to gloat over all the silverbugs at how silver got "blowtorched" here --- and at the same time, how he brilliantly timed this move by selling at the 30-second peak and buying back in big at the 30-second low?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:56 | 1207076 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

What 30 second low?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:17 | 1207229 tmosley
tmosley's picture

lol, he wants to know to, so he can claim he bought there as well, after having claimed to have sold his whole physical position yesterday.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:51 | 1207324 eisley79
eisley79's picture

yup, i actually sold 1201 ounces yesterday at the penny top.  Today i will do exactly what he does +1.  He is my new investing guide.  Luckily I have unlimited imagi-ounces to sell when he sells, and of course unlimited imagi-confetti to buy n+1 imagi-puts or imagi-calls that he sees fit.

my porsche also coincidentally is one year less used then is.  My mom's basement is also 1 sq-ft bigger. ..  what are the odds!

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:40 | 1206923 AUD
AUD's picture

What's happening with yields on Swiss Franc denominated bonds?

Falling yields might explain a rush to buy an obligation which is a promise to pay US$!

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:40 | 1206924 Darth Silver
Darth Silver's picture

its a good day to buy.  i just bought 300 oz at a hair above $46.  pumped.  physical. 

feels GoooooooooooooooooD!

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:47 | 1206930 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Can we get it to $35 - I have a truck and I hate to move it unless I can fill it.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:14 | 1206956 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

You didn't pull the trigger and buy before... Why do you believe that you will have the nads to pull the trigger on a short lived decline? This market is not for the faint of heart and not for weak handed paper market players.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:22 | 1207035 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

No paper only physical and have you heard of income before? I stopped buying in bulk in the mid 30s', start again there.I switched my main purchases to physical gold past that - and kept it small.   FRNs have been accumulating. Why wouldn't I buy at $35 - I'm long physical. I really don't get your comment. Why would I buy on a short term rise? When I buy the dips, I want it to be a real one, not this shit from yesterday/last night. Dealers are buying and price is declining - hmmm.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:42 | 1207058 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

This market is not for the faint of heart

+1.  Gold is how I will move wealth into the next currency regime.  Silver's gonna make me rich...or kill me, one or the other.  Silver is the embodiment of greed and fear in the PM market.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:55 | 1206938 fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

I can see 'em breaking it down to $39.20 before this blip is over.....unless it goes straight back up to $51.50 of course....so just incase: Quick, buy some silver!!!

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:22 | 1207114 AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

Hey, that's my price target! This locomotive needs to blow off some steam...and daddy needs to reload.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:55 | 1206942 nontaxpayer
nontaxpayer's picture

Bot some silver between 44.90-45. Will try to sell @ 49+.
Easy and riskless ;-)

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:02 | 1207088 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Where do you buy from and to whom do you sell when you want to take profit? I am thinking of getting into PMs finally and need some input from an expert.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:59 | 1206944 Jack Donaghy
Jack Donaghy's picture

Guys, could someone possibly explain what just happened here in layman's terms? I'm a bit confused. Serious question.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:15 | 1206962 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Surge from sunday night into monday morning was due to very little liquidity. Easy to move markets then as not many players involved. Also, by pushing the price as high as they could (and towards the target as youll notice of just under $50) this no doubt triggered stops all the way up to there before the short squeeze ran out of steam. Also enabled some fresh shorts to be piled on. Weak shorts got stopped out/ran over.

And even yesterday, the LME was closed so you still didn't have the full depth of the market you normally do on a weekday. Look for further interesting action (i.e. volatile) today. Finally, futures expiry today and most times big boys try and pin (move) the stock right where they want it to benefit most from failed options positions.

Last interesting tidbit, check out the daily volume on the SLV compared to its ADV. People accumulating a shit load of shares either for the epic dump OR higher follow through which should occur shortly. See what happens.

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:23 | 1206975 Jack Donaghy
Jack Donaghy's picture

When you say liquidty what exactly do you mean? That there was little cash moving around on stocks? 

 

As for CHF, is that taking over from silver because of the volatility witnessed this weekend? 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:10 | 1207019 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Silver spot is in the futures market and has zero to do with stocks, but yes the point is there - little money supporting either side of the price (bid/ask) so any orders entered cleared out all the offers (to sell) and thus moved the price higher in a silly fashion. This is how securities move - if theres no more offers to sell silver at 4800, it goes to 4801, then 4802, and etc etc.

Read this to grasp a bit better: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_liquidity

 

I dont know if CHF is exactly taking over from silver but its considered the new safe haven currency due to its (supposed) gold backing and tighter fiscal constrictions (Swiss CB can make their own rules with respect to rates, devaluation, etc).

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 10:57 | 1207819 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

ZP very helpful.

Thanks Much.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 12:10 | 1208089 Jack Donaghy
Jack Donaghy's picture

You hero. Thank you. 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:00 | 1206946 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

KWN has a story, citing an unnamed source in London, that asian buyers are accumulating gold and silver.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:43 | 1207057 stopthenewworldorder
stopthenewworldorder's picture

the london source is the 'man' btw

he say weakness this week then 'when doors of opportunity open wide, confucius he say jump right in'.....

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:44 | 1207287 Spigot
Spigot's picture

Typical bull market behavior: Grinding higher day in and day out with much nay saying in the broader press, with short, sharp corrections.

Typical bear market behavior: Grinding lower day in and day out with much happy talk in broader press, with short, sharp rallies.

You get to decide if silver/gold are in a bear or bull market.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:04 | 1206948 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Silver is dropping because asian buyers are stepping away from the table until Bernanke talks . (they probably believe that the threat of china dumping 2/3rds of its USD reserves will make him change course it wont). top it off with options exp .and JPM/HSBC gunning the pedal down here you get a pretty niced sized correction. After the exp and no change of course from the FED (finish of qe2 in june /more than likely qe3) watch Asian buyers pull the trigger on silver like never seen before . I dont think to get above 50 is going to be a battle if nothing changes .

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:08 | 1206950 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

KWN interviewed James Turk, who seems to think investors are losing confidence in the dollar.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:23 | 1206970 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Conclusion BTFD-

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:26 | 1206976 ivars
ivars's picture

True. And Bernanke may signal tightening, keeping those buyers out for some more time.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:29 | 1206981 bingaling
bingaling's picture

If he doesn't tighten I think the word "parabolic" for the past price moves of silver has been misused . There will be an explosion to the upside never seen before IMO. 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:53 | 1206999 ivars
ivars's picture

Worse so, USD will tank, and with that, hyperinflation is here.( in the USA, I mean, and worldwide USD being world reserve currency). A big risk to take with gas riots already coming. Also, one of things FED is supposed to do and can defend politically is price stability-easier than stock market and asset push it has performed so far, misquided by whatever theory, or intetionally to protect insolvent banks that has accumulated worthless assets.

I guess switching to austerity is short term less painful ( as the real austerity will only begin with 2012 budget, a lot of time to go).

I in fact expect him to be pretty clear on tightening of some form to protect USD and debt ratings. I do not know- rate increase, or clear statement there will be no QE3.

 

tightening would also solve JPM, HSBC etc problems with silver shorts.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:12 | 1207021 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Ok shtf in eurozone, the eur could/should dive so money would likely go to chf metals and usd right?

But the usd is shit, who wants to hold that going into the budget showdown and qe.

What's the likely trend if eur and usd are passed on for something else?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:32 | 1207099 ViewfromUnderth...
ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

ivars...I'm just going to try here:

"tightening", would have to take real interest rates (after inflation) to positive, not negative as they are now, to be effective. To convince people who eat and drive that real rates are positive (so as to affect their expectations and behaviour)...my guess is Bernanke would have to signal an intention of at least a 500 points increase tomorrow...maybe more...and seeing that the last FOMC used the words "for an extended period" then the chance of this happening is indistinguishable from zero...oh, and it would crash the world and blow up JPM's derivative book...unless the FASB can see a way around that again....so I am not trading on your suggestion, thank you.

The last time the US did this it resulted in a 30 year bull market for bond prices...

My best estimate of the reason for the enthusiasm for silver is all those people who suddenly understand that the debasement of US currency is for real, they feel they have missed the train on gold (because all the shills say it is overpriced)... and that leaves "the poor man's gold" which fortunately for them has been suppressed (confirmed by Maguire/Chilton) and as silver is re-monetised it is re-setting to its monetary ratio with gold.

I believe that re-set is what we are witnessing now. It is going to be a rocky ride and it is regrettable that it has come so far so quickly but the beach-ball underwater is a good analogy.

Parallels with 1980 are suspect because you had one player with more than 30% of silver, so the longs were very concentrated and vulnerable. Comex and CBOT enforced position limits and then Comex banned new long positions....just imagine Comex enforcing position limits now on the concentrated shorts and then, for good measure, allowing only new long positions...if that sounds insane to you then you are starting to understand what happened in 1980....and all the shills trot 1980 out as a cautionary tale as if it were an efficient and normal market reaction.

Buying physical silver is one of the very few ways that people can signal their disgust at the corruption of Wall St and politicians, and at the same time attempt to secure their own future.

For this reason I believe individuals will continue to buy physical silver for years, and by doing so will ultimately force accountability back into the financial system.

I believe it is an idea whose time has come. I hope this helps.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:19 | 1207421 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"gas riots already coming"

LOL

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:20 | 1207111 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Chances of Ben tightening? Slim and none.

You think Ben is going to destroy the equities mkts that he has trashed the dollar to buoy? Better put your thinking cap on.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:14 | 1206957 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Gold actually LOST in the last 12 months in CHF-terms - so much about a gold-bubble.

Silver obviously didnt. But it cost me 1,5 % of my physical metal holdings worth to hedge myself against dollar devaluation. It was worth the effort. Otherwise i would have lost about 25% to fx losses.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:19 | 1206968 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Indeed.  Yet narrow-minded 'Analysts' in the US who imagine that there is no other currency in the world will still maintain that there is a bubble in $Gold rather than seeing the truth which is that the bubble in the USD itself is bursting.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:56 | 1207003 ivars
ivars's picture

Gold is in no bubble, silver is.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:17 | 1207028 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

How? Inflation adj. High would be 100ish right?

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