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Silver Undergoes 10% Correction As Dollar Poundage Resumes; Dollar-Backed Swiss Franc Now Flight To Safety

Tyler Durden's picture





 

And so the proverbial correction in silver may have well been completed in the span of 24 hours. As the attached chart shows from its Sunday night peaks to its Monday night bottom silver has dropped over 10%, what some call a mini bear market (which takes it to those depressionary lows seen on Thursday of last week). Is the climb now set tp resume, although not so much due to anything else (and there is plenty else) but because the USD pounding is back in full brokeback style. The EURUSD is about to break above the Sunday night heights in the mid 1.46s and while weak hands are vacating gold and silver, everyone is scrambling to load up in CHF. We wonder how long until those same people realize that Hildebrand is just as mortal as any other central banker with a balance sheet behind him, and as recently as 12 months ago underwent a failed campaign to halt the surge of the CHF in the process contaminating his assets with some seriously ugly currency assets (if one may call $220 billion of dollars on the left side of your balance sheet assets and thus implicitly "supporting" the SNB liability - the Swiss Franc) whose eventual unwind will not be too kind on the Swiss currency.

Silver:

Dollar basket:

Amount of dollars held by the Swiss National Bank: at latest count, about 45% of GDP.

 


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Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:28 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Options expiry today... duh, could that have something to do with the shorts piling in? Haven't we seen this movie countless times?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:30 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Yup. It usually ends with a month of mountain climbing to k2 or something.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:02 | Link to Comment dlmaniac
dlmaniac's picture

I smell BTFD in the air.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:31 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

What good is a dip if the shelves are empty.

It's like an empty grocery store sending out thousands of coupons.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:18 | Link to Comment mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

It's not empty at all, there is silver everywhere in your quantities..

I'm not sure what planet people are on. Just because Turk says there isn;t any isn;t true people. He's talking about big volume. They just won't pay the price nor the premium.

Scotia Mocatta has them all. It is the big guys who suffer not you guys who buy 2-5 ounces.

 

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:56 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ya sucks to be a dinosaur. They make nice museums though.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:02 | Link to Comment MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Agreed, silver is still available in various forms at www.tulving.com and www.apmex.com plus others.

BTFD and always take physical delivery.

What we are seeing is normal high volatility... like a rat in a cage desperately trying to get out. This pattern we are seeing is the new normal considering contract expiry, which usually makes for a good entry point to catch the next leg up.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:18 | Link to Comment Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

tulving out. apmex out.  now what?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:30 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

That 49.79 print was barely a real price. I guess comparable to the USDJPY flash-crash..

100% agree on the Chief, that sucker's done. How much pain will the shorts endure? It will be worth it if they can hold out a bit longer.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:37 | Link to Comment ivars
ivars's picture

I told you yesterday we are in correction ( crash) .  More to come:

http://www.saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a...

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:04 | Link to Comment Fred C Dobbs
Fred C Dobbs's picture

Turd Ferguson's prediction was closer.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:22 | Link to Comment ivars
ivars's picture

You mean the value at the top? I expanded it after some deliberation here to include the range 42-50 but  did not put into graph- too complicated:

http://www.saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a...

Timing- I made the graph on March 13th, predicted top  22 days and 5 USD (45) early. My bad.

 

 

 

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:53 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

So you've made a ton of dollars in the silver trade? You're crystal ball is the best in the land? LOL... troll on clueless... wake me when the dollar strengthens. The fundamentals have not changed, the dollar is still being trashed by QE, and silver continues to be in backwardation.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:40 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Where is MomoTrader to gloat over all the silverbugs at how silver got "blowtorched" here --- and at the same time, how he brilliantly timed this move by selling at the 30-second peak and buying back in big at the 30-second low?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:56 | Link to Comment Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

What 30 second low?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:17 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

lol, he wants to know to, so he can claim he bought there as well, after having claimed to have sold his whole physical position yesterday.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:51 | Link to Comment eisley79
eisley79's picture

yup, i actually sold 1201 ounces yesterday at the penny top.  Today i will do exactly what he does +1.  He is my new investing guide.  Luckily I have unlimited imagi-ounces to sell when he sells, and of course unlimited imagi-confetti to buy n+1 imagi-puts or imagi-calls that he sees fit.

my porsche also coincidentally is one year less used then is.  My mom's basement is also 1 sq-ft bigger. ..  what are the odds!

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:40 | Link to Comment AUD
AUD's picture

What's happening with yields on Swiss Franc denominated bonds?

Falling yields might explain a rush to buy an obligation which is a promise to pay US$!

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:40 | Link to Comment Darth Silver
Darth Silver's picture

its a good day to buy.  i just bought 300 oz at a hair above $46.  pumped.  physical. 

feels GoooooooooooooooooD!

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:47 | Link to Comment Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Can we get it to $35 - I have a truck and I hate to move it unless I can fill it.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:14 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

You didn't pull the trigger and buy before... Why do you believe that you will have the nads to pull the trigger on a short lived decline? This market is not for the faint of heart and not for weak handed paper market players.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:22 | Link to Comment Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

No paper only physical and have you heard of income before? I stopped buying in bulk in the mid 30s', start again there.I switched my main purchases to physical gold past that - and kept it small.   FRNs have been accumulating. Why wouldn't I buy at $35 - I'm long physical. I really don't get your comment. Why would I buy on a short term rise? When I buy the dips, I want it to be a real one, not this shit from yesterday/last night. Dealers are buying and price is declining - hmmm.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:42 | Link to Comment SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

This market is not for the faint of heart

+1.  Gold is how I will move wealth into the next currency regime.  Silver's gonna make me rich...or kill me, one or the other.  Silver is the embodiment of greed and fear in the PM market.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:55 | Link to Comment fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

I can see 'em breaking it down to $39.20 before this blip is over.....unless it goes straight back up to $51.50 of course....so just incase: Quick, buy some silver!!!

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:22 | Link to Comment AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

Hey, that's my price target! This locomotive needs to blow off some steam...and daddy needs to reload.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:55 | Link to Comment nontaxpayer
nontaxpayer's picture

Bot some silver between 44.90-45. Will try to sell @ 49+.
Easy and riskless ;-)

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:02 | Link to Comment j0nx
j0nx's picture

Where do you buy from and to whom do you sell when you want to take profit? I am thinking of getting into PMs finally and need some input from an expert.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 04:59 | Link to Comment Jack Donaghy
Jack Donaghy's picture

Guys, could someone possibly explain what just happened here in layman's terms? I'm a bit confused. Serious question.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:15 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Surge from sunday night into monday morning was due to very little liquidity. Easy to move markets then as not many players involved. Also, by pushing the price as high as they could (and towards the target as youll notice of just under $50) this no doubt triggered stops all the way up to there before the short squeeze ran out of steam. Also enabled some fresh shorts to be piled on. Weak shorts got stopped out/ran over.

And even yesterday, the LME was closed so you still didn't have the full depth of the market you normally do on a weekday. Look for further interesting action (i.e. volatile) today. Finally, futures expiry today and most times big boys try and pin (move) the stock right where they want it to benefit most from failed options positions.

Last interesting tidbit, check out the daily volume on the SLV compared to its ADV. People accumulating a shit load of shares either for the epic dump OR higher follow through which should occur shortly. See what happens.

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:23 | Link to Comment Jack Donaghy
Jack Donaghy's picture

When you say liquidty what exactly do you mean? That there was little cash moving around on stocks? 

 

As for CHF, is that taking over from silver because of the volatility witnessed this weekend? 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:10 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Silver spot is in the futures market and has zero to do with stocks, but yes the point is there - little money supporting either side of the price (bid/ask) so any orders entered cleared out all the offers (to sell) and thus moved the price higher in a silly fashion. This is how securities move - if theres no more offers to sell silver at 4800, it goes to 4801, then 4802, and etc etc.

Read this to grasp a bit better: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_liquidity

 

I dont know if CHF is exactly taking over from silver but its considered the new safe haven currency due to its (supposed) gold backing and tighter fiscal constrictions (Swiss CB can make their own rules with respect to rates, devaluation, etc).

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 10:57 | Link to Comment Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

ZP very helpful.

Thanks Much.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 12:10 | Link to Comment Jack Donaghy
Jack Donaghy's picture

You hero. Thank you. 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:00 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

KWN has a story, citing an unnamed source in London, that asian buyers are accumulating gold and silver.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:43 | Link to Comment stopthenewworldorder
stopthenewworldorder's picture

the london source is the 'man' btw

he say weakness this week then 'when doors of opportunity open wide, confucius he say jump right in'.....

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:44 | Link to Comment Spigot
Spigot's picture

Typical bull market behavior: Grinding higher day in and day out with much nay saying in the broader press, with short, sharp corrections.

Typical bear market behavior: Grinding lower day in and day out with much happy talk in broader press, with short, sharp rallies.

You get to decide if silver/gold are in a bear or bull market.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:04 | Link to Comment bingaling
bingaling's picture

Silver is dropping because asian buyers are stepping away from the table until Bernanke talks . (they probably believe that the threat of china dumping 2/3rds of its USD reserves will make him change course it wont). top it off with options exp .and JPM/HSBC gunning the pedal down here you get a pretty niced sized correction. After the exp and no change of course from the FED (finish of qe2 in june /more than likely qe3) watch Asian buyers pull the trigger on silver like never seen before . I dont think to get above 50 is going to be a battle if nothing changes .

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:08 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

KWN interviewed James Turk, who seems to think investors are losing confidence in the dollar.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:23 | Link to Comment bingaling
bingaling's picture

Conclusion BTFD-

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:26 | Link to Comment ivars
ivars's picture

True. And Bernanke may signal tightening, keeping those buyers out for some more time.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:29 | Link to Comment bingaling
bingaling's picture

If he doesn't tighten I think the word "parabolic" for the past price moves of silver has been misused . There will be an explosion to the upside never seen before IMO. 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:53 | Link to Comment ivars
ivars's picture

Worse so, USD will tank, and with that, hyperinflation is here.( in the USA, I mean, and worldwide USD being world reserve currency). A big risk to take with gas riots already coming. Also, one of things FED is supposed to do and can defend politically is price stability-easier than stock market and asset push it has performed so far, misquided by whatever theory, or intetionally to protect insolvent banks that has accumulated worthless assets.

I guess switching to austerity is short term less painful ( as the real austerity will only begin with 2012 budget, a lot of time to go).

I in fact expect him to be pretty clear on tightening of some form to protect USD and debt ratings. I do not know- rate increase, or clear statement there will be no QE3.

 

tightening would also solve JPM, HSBC etc problems with silver shorts.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:12 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Ok shtf in eurozone, the eur could/should dive so money would likely go to chf metals and usd right?

But the usd is shit, who wants to hold that going into the budget showdown and qe.

What's the likely trend if eur and usd are passed on for something else?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:32 | Link to Comment ViewfromUnderth...
ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

ivars...I'm just going to try here:

"tightening", would have to take real interest rates (after inflation) to positive, not negative as they are now, to be effective. To convince people who eat and drive that real rates are positive (so as to affect their expectations and behaviour)...my guess is Bernanke would have to signal an intention of at least a 500 points increase tomorrow...maybe more...and seeing that the last FOMC used the words "for an extended period" then the chance of this happening is indistinguishable from zero...oh, and it would crash the world and blow up JPM's derivative book...unless the FASB can see a way around that again....so I am not trading on your suggestion, thank you.

The last time the US did this it resulted in a 30 year bull market for bond prices...

My best estimate of the reason for the enthusiasm for silver is all those people who suddenly understand that the debasement of US currency is for real, they feel they have missed the train on gold (because all the shills say it is overpriced)... and that leaves "the poor man's gold" which fortunately for them has been suppressed (confirmed by Maguire/Chilton) and as silver is re-monetised it is re-setting to its monetary ratio with gold.

I believe that re-set is what we are witnessing now. It is going to be a rocky ride and it is regrettable that it has come so far so quickly but the beach-ball underwater is a good analogy.

Parallels with 1980 are suspect because you had one player with more than 30% of silver, so the longs were very concentrated and vulnerable. Comex and CBOT enforced position limits and then Comex banned new long positions....just imagine Comex enforcing position limits now on the concentrated shorts and then, for good measure, allowing only new long positions...if that sounds insane to you then you are starting to understand what happened in 1980....and all the shills trot 1980 out as a cautionary tale as if it were an efficient and normal market reaction.

Buying physical silver is one of the very few ways that people can signal their disgust at the corruption of Wall St and politicians, and at the same time attempt to secure their own future.

For this reason I believe individuals will continue to buy physical silver for years, and by doing so will ultimately force accountability back into the financial system.

I believe it is an idea whose time has come. I hope this helps.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:19 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"gas riots already coming"

LOL

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:20 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Chances of Ben tightening? Slim and none.

You think Ben is going to destroy the equities mkts that he has trashed the dollar to buoy? Better put your thinking cap on.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:14 | Link to Comment swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Gold actually LOST in the last 12 months in CHF-terms - so much about a gold-bubble.

Silver obviously didnt. But it cost me 1,5 % of my physical metal holdings worth to hedge myself against dollar devaluation. It was worth the effort. Otherwise i would have lost about 25% to fx losses.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:19 | Link to Comment Quintus
Quintus's picture

Indeed.  Yet narrow-minded 'Analysts' in the US who imagine that there is no other currency in the world will still maintain that there is a bubble in $Gold rather than seeing the truth which is that the bubble in the USD itself is bursting.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:56 | Link to Comment ivars
ivars's picture

Gold is in no bubble, silver is.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:17 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

How? Inflation adj. High would be 100ish right?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:55 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

If it's simply ratio fixed and then adjusted more for what has been permanently lost to disrupt the ratio it's got way over 200 to run. Though the lack of accurate data will lead people to believe that 150 is reasonable and it would have to run up from there as the bluff is called.

Of couse that's time dual rate adjusted. By time silver could get to 150 gold would be 1650 to 1750.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:38 | Link to Comment tallen
tallen's picture

Dollar index plunging to 08 lows. 73.935! Ouch.

Bullionvault still has silver at 1-2% above spot. I'm backing the BTFD truck up.

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:24 | Link to Comment Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

People need to stop piling into CHF, all it is does create backdoor bailouts for non-Swiss debtors, and drive domestic inflation in Switzerland.  If the SNB starts running the printing presses again, then they need to demand non-fiat collateralization for their bailouts, and strongly consider an Au & 5.56mm dividend to the populace.

http://www.snb.ch/en/iabout/stat/statpub/statmon/stats/statmon

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:15 | Link to Comment Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Alternatively, the SNB could simply return the favor and reverse the flow with a simple press release stating, "All excess foreign currency flows will be used to immediately increase national (physical) gold and silver reserves."

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:27 | Link to Comment TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

Am I the only one around old enough to remember Bunker and Nelson Hunt? The lesson of the silver market is that it is the most illiquid market in the world. Silver bullion is but a fraction of the contracts traded. That results in imbalances that can make for volatility and whiplash that can kill, without the liquidity to make big upside. When does the madness stop? I won't be speculating in silver this year.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:29 | Link to Comment bingaling
bingaling's picture

Silver is the new liquid . Get on board or stfu.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:48 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Silvers consumable. Gold is not. The mining market is the tail in gold and it wags the dog the giant pool of already mined gold.

Silver has the same tail dog thing only there's not as big of a ratio already mined versus mined. So when gold goes into backwardation it doesn't take too much of a price rise to fix it. When silver does it has to go up much higher to fix the backwardation. If a 16 percent rise will plug the supply demand chain for gold it takes a 38 percent rise in silver to do the same thing.

Silvers seen several 40 percent rises that basically fix the backwardation problems. It's stopped working. Yes it is going to get ugly as greed will be much higher and fear will be much higher.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:50 | Link to Comment nontaxpayer
nontaxpayer's picture

stfu or btfd.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:02 | Link to Comment ViewfromUnderth...
ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

Well Tex, a billion dollars isn't what it used to be.

Feel better now?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:40 | Link to Comment Spartan
Spartan's picture

1985 - USDCHF = 2.9343

2011 - USDCHF = 0.8769

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) (2009) -- Timothy Geithner, President Barack Obama’s nominee for Treasury secretary, said that a “strong” dollar is in the U.S. interest.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:40 | Link to Comment not skint yet
not skint yet's picture

(beep, beep, beep)

That's the truck.  Here's some FRNs.  Load it up.

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:44 | Link to Comment Fast Twitch
Fast Twitch's picture

"USD pounding is back in full brokeback style." So much said in so few words A+

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:44 | Link to Comment Hushups
Hushups's picture

This is one of the dips I was hoping for. Unfortunately not only are the silver dealers around me sold out, they're no longer even taking orders due to being so backlogged on orders to begin with. So this dip just gets to drive right on by...

I'm glad I got what little physical I did while I could.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:01 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Thats the problem with waiting on dips. Dealers typically tell customers that they are 'out of stock' even if they have stock under the counter. Why should dealers fill orders with silver when there is a dip in the paper market? Do you believe that dealers want to lose money on recently purchased silver by selling it at a loss so you can buy the dip? Dealers will wait for the inevitable silver rebound after options expiry and continue to sell physical silver. This is nothing new...and this is not the beginning of a long term down trend in the price of silver. No fundamentals have changed.

Buy when the dealer is selling... waiting on a dip that is simply an options expiry blip is not going to work going forward.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:22 | Link to Comment Hushups
Hushups's picture

No, I think this is something a little different. The one place I deal with the most is no longer taking orders because their supplier is telling them that they're not going to have enough silver to fill the orders that they were placing, so they stopped taking in orders. Granted, you could be right and they could just be trying to screw everyone over, but getting physical silver has been difficult to begin with where I am, this seems more like the next expected step rather than some money making scam.

As far as buying when the dealer is selling, I've been trying to as much as I can. I'm just running out of fiat paper to trade for the actual good stuff :(

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:44 | Link to Comment mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

Scotia Mocatta in Canada has anything you want. They may deliver to your country. Fast and efficient and trusted worldwide.Dcelivered by courier to your door.

 

Check it out

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:26 | Link to Comment lance_manion
lance_manion's picture

They only deliver within Canada. 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:55 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

He's a big wig high flying super first class big boy can't pee like a puppy and run with the big dogs official rich dude. He knows that.

Or he doesn't.

And he just made his situation even worse. Silver is not in a bubble. It's in a troubled dollar zone. And people actually have a little bit of faith in the CAN.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:22 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

This is called capitalism for a reason. Because a silver dealer attempts to make a small profit on silver sales, instead of taking a loss on sales, does not mean the dealer is 'trying to screw someone over'.

Please do not attempt to attribute to me that which I did not say.

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:58 | Link to Comment earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

I have physical gold and have been reading ZH for a long time. It seems that you could accumulate physical using Futures contracts. Purchase a contract with the idea of posting 100% collateral to take delivery. Any one know the costs associated with this option instead of dealing with "retailers"?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 05:49 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

Please, let the dip continue...

Will you marry me, Blythe ?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:22 | Link to Comment Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

STFR

Sell the fkn rally.  This silver pig has a lot more room to fall.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:24 | Link to Comment AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

Do you actually think it will taunt it's 200MA at ~$30.50? I've seen you say "$30 this summer". You never say exactly when, just "summer." Be more specific or just give up already.

 

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:52 | Link to Comment Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I say low 30's as in 32-33 an ounce, not 30.  I would guess sometime in the next 10-12 weeks.

It could go lower, but I am not nearly as practiced in picking the bottom's of mini-manias......only the tops.  So I would rather just cover in that range as opposed to trying to time the exact bottom.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:34 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

It hasn't gone down significantly for long for 5 years. Unless you count the stock market crash. But during great depression it didn't double dip with the economy or the market and won't do it again.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:50 | Link to Comment Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Depends on your definition of "long".

In 2006 silver went from $15 to $10 for a 33% haircut within six weeks and never broke through $15 until about the start of 2008.  That was approximately an 18 month wait for those new highs.

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:46 | Link to Comment stopthenewworldorder
stopthenewworldorder's picture

interestingly i can tell you that in london at least there is no new interest at all in precious metals.  the only people involved are the people who have always been involved and my peers in asset management just yawn and continue to 'not get it'

we are so far from phase 3 i struggle to guess when that will actually happen, have even been involved with 2 mooted new pmetals funds which have both gone into cold storage because the guys setting them up think 'its all got ahead of itself' - hahahaha what a bunch on dunderheads in the industry

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:26 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Westerners have been conditioned to believe that monopoly money is a store of value. Easterners have no such belief.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:08 | Link to Comment xamax
xamax's picture

Hiltebrand is running Switzerland to a desaster. Here is mentionned only the USD-CHF huge position, but have in mind the EUR-CHF position held by the SNB is far more huge (the SNB doesnt disclose numbers but its around 300 bln !!), so if the EUR-CHF should go to 1.20, it's game over for Switzerland. Combined with a foreigners percentage of almost 40%, the most being supported by the Swiss social state, one can only wonder how long it will take until Switzerland will ask EU for assistance.    

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 10:38 | Link to Comment Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Switzerland, China & the Arabs are the ones bailing out the EU, not the other way around.

Since there are still only 5 PIIGS, the Swiss are pulling more than their weight, and if the resident EU deadbeats keep living off the state then the SVP will get the votes to exit Schengen and the riff-raff will be exported back to the EU.  On the off chance that things measurably improve worldwide before a new financial paradigm is built, then there will be healthy profits for the SNB on the CHF fall.  The SNB and the Bundesbank have a tough and expensive balancing act because the FED has made the USD as popular as a disease infested whore.  But the headaches of the SNB members would be wet-dreams for Benny & Timmy.  The value of the Swiss F/X reserves can go up or down, but it is an unrealized gain or loss on an open position.  The US is a deadbeat that doesn't even have F/X reserves to incur unrealized gains or losses against - look at the high % of total US reserves that are composed of meager the ¾ of oz of tungsten per capita that the FED has probably already loaned to JPM.  Switzerland, on the other hand, can pay off the entire public debt with F/X reserves on hand and still have over $10,000 per capita left over, plus all its gold.  Most of the EU falls on the US end of that spectrum not the Swiss, they couldn't bail out Switzerland if they wanted.  EURCHF 1.20 is only a number, but if Philipp Hildebrand can't deliver the bacon domestically at 1.20 then he should be hung next to Bernanke in an homage to Mussolini, even a half-witted central banker should be able to thread the Swiss needle blindfolded.

The table on page 22 of the linked SNB report in my previous post provides the following EOY breakdown of F/X reserves: EUR 54.9%, USD 24.8%, JPY 10.2%, GBP 3.1%, CAD 4.1%, Other 2.8%  

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:35 | Link to Comment Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

I'm praying that this blitzkrieg correction extends down to $40 . That's my buy trigger level . Got the bullion dealer on speed dial .

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:04 | Link to Comment Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

That would be nice, brother.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:13 | Link to Comment Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Come on collapse...

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:20 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I am waiting for 30 ish or i wont buy again. Off to find unloved cheap value, like some rental property.

That backwardation you all got excited about? Did you think of the possibility that every silver producer at once was frantically trying to lock in forward sales?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 07:51 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Just get over it, silver has entered 'it's just a trade' status.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:34 | Link to Comment Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Exactly, and that’s why it is so wrong to be in this market as an investor. It may be a fun roller coaster ride for traders, but, it’s hardly the place for your IRA or 401k. It’s actually another sad example of a market that has been ruined by the largest position players (aka JPM, HSBC, et al), and the lack of balls by the COMEX and CFTC to do anything but encourage them to do more.   

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:13 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I dont know why anyone is saying shortage. I just checked a few internet dealers. Been dealing with cni ( golddealer.com) since 1999.

They have plenty of silver knives for you to catch.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:25 | Link to Comment Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

Time to scalp some silver bugs.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:41 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Another brutal day for silver stocks.

Tocqueville Fund and others like it might as well just shut down.  The defections and redemptions are going to be enormous.

Can't blame people, silver stocks have been flat out, the absolute worst sector ever in relative performance.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:46 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Silver and gold may undergo a correction after QE 2, but just BTFD. Where else would you rather be? Are you kidding me? The Soros gangsters and the BRIC countries just concluded their respective competing conventions last week on what is going to replace the USD as WRC. The Chinese were stating the obvious flight from the USD when they said they were going to dump 2/3 of their holdings.

Any Benzebub pause in QE will cause the stock market to roll over, and PMs may have a correction, too, but QE 3 will cause the dollar to fall out of bed and PMs to take off again.

QE 3 will be the point in the Crying Game when people realize the USD is really a dude....

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:23 | Link to Comment Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

nicely said!

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:03 | Link to Comment chaunceyG
chaunceyG's picture

Long silver is the greatest suckers trade in the world right now.  Anyone who thinks hyperinflation is coming deserves to lose their life savings long metals.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 10:45 | Link to Comment TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Nice red shoes...Dorothy!

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 10:07 | Link to Comment jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

where do you go, where do you go. can't go to the stock market, can't go to the bond market, can't go to the PM market....i think i'll pull out all of my money and go get some tokens from the local amusement park....that way i'll have something of real 'value' to hold onto.

 

this will get me at least 1 ride on the ferris wheel and a corn dog.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 10:09 | Link to Comment primalplasma
primalplasma's picture

Are you really Jerry Lawler? Cool if you are. :)

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 10:44 | Link to Comment CHARLIE.DONT.SERF
CHARLIE.DONT.SERF's picture

The retail trade, which silver experts, Ted Butler, Ed Steer, Eric Sprott, James Turk among many others are, saying is incredibly strong is being driven by the understanding that the world financial system is crumbling before our very eyes.  People all over the world are purchasing gold and silver in order to protect from a coming dollar collapse.  

I am one of those people.  I came to Zerhodege via Ed Steer, via Lew Rockwell, via Ron Paul.  Those people formed their ideas by reading Menger, Mises, Rothbard and others.  We all understand that the Keynsian experiment is cooked and that the world is about to enter a new paradigm.   All of the trolls polluting zerohedge with advice to sell silver need to understand that their voices are falling on deaf ears.  We know why we are long physical silver and gold.  We will continue to buy the dips when we can.  We will continue to accumulate and we will continue to prepare.  

Here's to more people understanding what the government has done to our money, how they enslave us and what the solution is.  Good luck to all that are long physical silver.  

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 10:59 | Link to Comment Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Hey Dangertime....

Have you had your good kick in the nuts yet today.???

If not,stop on by,I'll gladly help you out.

You must get beat up....often.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 11:28 | Link to Comment TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

If you're in PMs for the quick bucks, good luck; you're gonna need it.

If you're in PMs because you see decades of financial turmoil, that's sensible.

You can pull whatever chart or metric out of your ass you like, I know three years ago (post GFC) a major issue came up every few days, now there's a few every day...what's wrong with this picture?!

For me, these are the deciding factors for going long PMs (keep those charts and metrics up your ass, long PMs is CDF...Common Dog Fuck);

1. US will lose WRC status...no more free ride, time for Nike to open up sweatshops back home.

2. There is too much debt within the consumer nations (acts like Heart Disease in obesity).

3. Monetary Base; I reckon it takes at least 20-30 years to safely dilute-out every 100% increase in monetary base for any given currency...how much of yours has been printed lately?

4. Greed is increasing, nobody is uniting in a common financial cause; Adam Smith's ideas do not apply to modern societies that can screw each other over and hide behind legal technicalities or notions of TBTF.

5. The general public is getting more anxious by the day...although they can't put their finger on it, everyone knows something is wrong.

6. Inflation, Rates hikes and Wage hikes will be the solution...creditors will cop-it, creditors will change lending habits.

7. Credit Wars will happen. Governments will compete against Banks and Companies for credit...like the Dotcom phenomenon, mid to high-end Real Estate is a nuclear wasteland with a 30 year half-life; put a white picquet fence around a dog kennel.

8. Hot Money will create aditional Inflation in good economies (Thanks Ben...I'll enjoy my iPad, you enjoy that rope!).

9. Political leaders lack resolve and/or IQ; Trump is NOT Jefferson!

10. Modern Societies are weaker than older ones. Avoid taking any pain for bad decisions (print rather than pay) will happen; just add a charismatic leader and National Socialism 2.0 will emerge.

11. Changing of the guard; Fiat for Physical.

12. Oil prices will become more volitile and create more volitility.

13. Alternative energies for the masses are a Pipe-Dream.

These are but a few long term inevitable pressures which will keep the flame under PMs, lit.

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