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On Silver's Exponential Price Feedback Loop
And as if silver bulls needed some more good news, here is a report from the Morgan Stanley metals desk...
I was told on Wednesday that big buying went thru on Tuesday in may atm silver calls which should make the market short gamma.
A short gamma position will become shorter as the price of the underlying asset increases. As the market rallies, you are effectively selling more and more of the underlying asset as the delta becomes more negative.
So what that means is that the SELLER of the calls, probably bought Physical to delta hedge themselves neutral. As this market jumps just about 1-2% daily (this week alone +6.5%) they would need to now re hedge to bring themselves back to neutral by BUYING more Physical as SILVER goes higher, essentially driving the market Higher still and so the chase goes theoretically moving the market higher causing them to buy more to hedge and moving the market higher, thus buying into rallies.
Now they could BUY puts also to create positive Gamma as well to offset some of that pain they are not bound to the Physical for their hedge. Lots of what if's but that’s the idea.
On the other side if Silver were to gap lower, this would not help either as they would need to SELL Physical into a falling market to re-hedge themselves.
Great in a slow steady market, nightmare in a volatile
Translation: ever-accelerating feedback loop (both higher and lower). Vol is about to go off the charts.
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Good post. Whoever put this position on is obviously thinking too much. Short calls, is short volatility, long puts is long volatility...I suppose the thinking is buy the puts to protect the long physical position in the event the price tanks and the calls expire worthless. The short calls long physical delta is not changed by the long physical long puts delta and vice versa. If the delta is 1 (or negative 1) on the short calls position and you buy all the puts in the world, your delta on the short calls is still 1.
A cool way of looking at delta is the likelihood that the option will expire in the money and be exercised, zero being expire worthless and 1 in the money and exercised. If the physical is through strike its getting exercised whether you own puts or not.
And that has exactly what to do with my 100 oz bars?
nothing. Signed Rubber Soul
Thank you, my music loving friend.
let me try to say this again slowly.
when an options trader says buy puts, he almost automatically means buy some puts and buy some futures. This is how options traders talk. They are trading the OPTIONS, not the underlying...I think the confusion is based in semantics only
Yes I posted my first post before I saw your post, and agree we're quibbling over details. I was just having some fun noodling it for sport, I don't intend to distract.
yeah me too, our back and forth isnt in real time, ignore my pedantry also...
+40.95 Cheers
Long call has + delta? Captn Obvious to the rescue?
The point was you cant be long gamma having sold options (short gamma in rising trend = death) unless you hedge your shit. MMs who sell you these options DO hedge, unless its guys in the pit taking on a prop position. And those guys, let me tell you, are in a world of pain right now having sold all those SLV 40s, 41s etc which are looking pretty fucking good right now for Apr expiry.
This is but a symptom of a very sick and fragile economy.
If it were JUST silver that were taking the rocket-ship...I would be concerned about a "bubble" or a massive long-term pullback. (I am a bit concerned about it...since pertty much every penny of my net worth in is physical bullion). But is it NOT just silver and gold. It is copper, soybeans, cotton, coffee, lead, oil, bauxite (aluminum), food....pretty much everything...at the same time the dollar is about to take out 2008 lows, gasoline is breaking the $4.00 a gallon mark again and housing prices are continuing to drop like a rock.
There is MORE behind the rapid rise in silver than just the fact that there is alot of demand...I think this should be taken as a signal that something VERY big is going to happen soon - as some have already said...my spidey senses are tingling.
I'm sure the CANSLIM mo-mo junkies will be all over this stock.
Now assured to be in a "self-reinforcing feedback loop".
I can hear the Red Bull-swilling, O'Neil clones all talking up PAAS now:
"PAAS broke out of a 3 - month base to new highs on 4x normal volume"
PAAS is now destined to become the next LULU or TZOO......
LOL....
llol, technical analysis is technical.
I'll take silver in the ground over yoga pants any day. Disclosure: long $PAAS since Jan.
Check AUMN 200,000,000 high grade, accessible, NW Argentina. That's $400/share for $24
Robo, pin up an SPX daily.
That's some weird looking mojo that
I've been long PAA for a while. It caused some problems for me when it performed so poorly when silver was rocketing up. It used to paralel SLW in it's moves but it's disappointing guidance knocked it off quite abit. Today was quite a relief. I was able to reposition and profit take. I think Robotrader is right PAA is due to outperform SLW even for a while.
I just remembered. Yesterday was the day PAA invited analysts in to have a look at thier books. I would say analysts liked what they saw.
Disclosure: I'm short yoga pants.... damned cute!
Know it...love it... ;-)
PAAS sucks. Physical rules.
I have both.
one way or the other monday ought to be a real doozy.
When is Jaime going to have Blythe "disappeared"?
If the FOMC conspirators decided that it was political suicide to extend QEIII, and noting that they've poured a ton of monetary base into their friends 2B2Fails THAT would create a higher dollar and curtain inflation as it would signal the end of monetization (at least temporarily). They could decide this as early as April 27th or sooner which they could convey to the Hymie Dimon's and Uncle Fester (doing gods SATAN work) Blankenfein through the traditional conduit, Dudley of the NYC FRB, like they always do. So they don't really have to wait for the FOMC meeting because as we all well know, B. BarankeSATANstein can tell his FOMC members what they're going to do at that time while having all ready made his decision, which as indicated, Dudley can deliver pre-FOMC meeting day and screw the blackout, just front run it. Of course, this creates a problem for the equity markets, but the 2B2Fails can always short it for a quicky pick-up and a great buying opportunity as a rising dollar will eventually turn the markets back to pointing north. The only fly in the ointment is who is going to finance the Federal Government's excessive spending during this QE hiatus, a good question. Maybe they can just damage the market hard for May and then resurrect the QE program over the summer as things deteriorate. Whatever is done, you can bet they'll be taking care of ol'number one (Wall Street) and skull fuck the rest. The only thing we can do is watch the technicals for the tip-off and try to front run it, that and foment Revolution for the 2012 elections.
Huge assumptions they will offset with physical.
Coulda just as easily been a covered call writer or a dozen other strats, repairs or gambles in play.
True. There's some serious head scratching going on over this weeks pop.
40.91 silver
113.15 oil
74.94 USDX
Dr. P!
Price of oil was not mentioned much today here at ZH. Up 2%. $5.00 gas coming to American service stations soon!
any thoughts on buying JPM puts? say May40s? ask is currently .18c.
Could be a party to the downfall.
JPM will be saved by the Fed. The stock could go down though.
Why not just buy physical gold or silver instead?
betting against the devil is always a dangerous proposition. remember...they don't play by the same rules as we do...they have no rules.
Eric King is going to be taking his 1957 Chevy to the beach this weekend.....
No doubt he'll be knee deep in 19-year old girls from Newport Beach.
Nice .... gearstick.
This gamma short, physical delta hedge stuff reminds me of my dog chasing its tail. No matter how fast he goes, he never catches his tail.
If only I knew of a way to monetize it...
What a nice, juicy, soft set of die.....................just in case anyone needed to be reminded why TD keeps RT around.........
41.01 ... that's kick ass
Where are you getting your numbers? I have a high of 40.95 and a last of 40.91.
APMEX ask. I know they have a tiny premium on their spot pages but I just like celebrating early.
Basically it's silver premature excitation.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=m5
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=m5
Dollar Nybot just went below 75.
I think I will go buy some ammo now.
+1
+.50 cal
I think we are close to an intermediate top in risk on assets including precious metals, but i have no problem changing my opinion and said i would ride gdxj.
I have been riding it for a while. It has passed heavy multiple resistance lines and has one last one at 44. This is minor resistance.
I have no convictions and i am willing to change my pm bearish opinions.
I still think gold and silver bugs are cocksuckers, but i will suck that precious metal dick too if it gives me a good return.
If there is a real convincing breakout above 44 then i will keep riding it.
Dammit, I guess maybe we are at a top. If your getting in, now I'm nervous about staying in. Glad to see you come around. I guess it's true: topcallingtrolls negative and dangerous behind a wheel, can still serve a purpose.
I am not getting in now.
I was in silver and.gold heavily since the 99 lows and have sold it all last year. However i got back into a small position in silver at around 33 and a big position in gdxj at 37 ish.
Buying silver with a six handle and gold in the sub 300 range was the best thing i have ever done. You can understand my selling into gold 1300 ish and silver 24 ish and starting to call the top.
You used to have to buy 8 ounces of gold to get free shipping and insurance from golddealer.com! Had to reach the two thousand dollar minimum!
Lying sack of shit.You own no PM's.You stated you are short.You tried to convince people to sell silver over $10 ago.Give it up you rotten shill.
Marc Faber was at a top fund manager convention in Singapore and ask the crowd how many were in Ag/Au for at least 1% and virtually noone raised their hands. Long way to go.
5%
But point is there.
Yep, win the Ironman, write a best seller, become POTUS, build your own house, raise nice kids and people will refer to you fondly as that 'Ironman winning writer-President who built a house with his bare hands and has great kids', but suck ONE cock...
Ahhh don't worry tct: you'll always be rated as a grade 'A' Asshole in my book.
Thanks!
Uh, is the US Mint affected by the shutdown ?
they don't have any silver left, so what's the problem?
still i really want my 2011 Eagles, even if they are in Tungsten or Aluminum. Collectors value ?
Good thing the FED isn't really a govt owned anything...so the hot, meaty POMO equity injections will continue unabated.
that's gamma rays from fukushima, right?
My understanding is most delta hedgers dont mind being short gamma. They will reposition on the downside, not the upside.
Buy silver gold and silver stocks, motherfuckers, don't buy physical, and heaven forbid, don't buy SLV/GLD.
Fuck you and the cum guzzling rat fucking horse you rode in under.
And wipe your mouth asshat, you've got Jamie Dimon's cum all over your face.
Lol mofo, the big funds are long metal, short stocks. Stocks should be seeing 2-3X leverage over the price of metal, not the other way around. Buying physical is just supporting the Jamie Dimons of the world who are short miners, long metal.
wow they teach sellside "research analysts" aka spambots about delta hedging these days? proof that even retarded monkeys throwing s*** at dartboards can derive black scholes
I suspect from the small fragment here that they dont teach them well.
wanna get crazy.....FSG....FOL
Silver/Gold/DXY/Oil/Congress/Earthquakes/Xenon Clouds... Hell of an afternoon...
And the worst part is, I'm out of booze.... Gonna be a long weekend....
Bang da Hoe bitchez...!!!
Johnny Bravo? Where are you?
He vowed he would never grace Zero Hedge ever again if the POG hit $1450, either that or he promised to off himself, I forget which. But if he followed through on his threat to short gold in the $1300's he's probably hiding from someone named "Tiny" right now, I heard Columbia is nice this time of year..............
If that ubertroll bastard JohnnyBravo really left this forum for good, and has never come back as another troll under just another alias, I would be impressed --- and very surprised.
His kind of burning, malicious sociopathic behavior does not fade away easily.
Do not get too excited, that just brings correction, a major one, closer. In fact, silver feedback loop is getting hyper or super exponential, and that is not sustainable . Even comments here tell that irrational exhuberance has been engaged.
If fed will bail out JPM, the effect on silver prices will be the same as when JPM bailed out Bear Sterns. Expect a 40% correction, at 42-50 USD, within few weeks, to about 25 USD. Then a year between 30-40 USD. But after q1 2012 silver shoots in the sky,>= 100 USD.
Here is how it will look like, in silver price 2011-2012 chart:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/download/file.php?id=2673
Good bye $40, we hardly knew thee.
BEWARE
The predators-that-be may very well be setting up the most gigantic head-fake in the history of predatory ponzi-scams.
The FederalReserve cannot and will not stop buying treasuries to finance ever increasing portions of federal government overspending. They know that. We know that. The world increasingly knows that.
Hence the acellerating rise in gold, silver and commodity prices worldwide, and increasing signs of serious consumer price inflation.
However, lately the FederalReserve has been getting heat for their egregious, irresponsible inflation-causing, government-debt-encouraging behavior. So they wish to create a situation that massively enriches the owners of the FederalReserve (JPM, GoldmanShafts, etc) and simultaneously makes almost everyone literally BEG them to start QE3... which they plan to do anyway, since QEs are primarily gigantic giveaways to their owners.
So, how do they do that? It is obvious. They let QE2 end. Since they have done NOTHING to improve the real economy, and the real economy is still in depression, the stock markets will crash, commodity prices will crash, interest rates [from private lenders] will soar, the housing market will begin to completely crash and burn (as it must to re-balance and recover), and everyone will start screaming bloody murder. And what they'll be screaming is...
Bring back QE... bring it back now... and make it even bigger.
When they do so, almost everyone will applaud the FederalReserve for "saving the world"... in the same sense that drug addicts respond to someone giving them more drugs when they're in horrible, painful withdrawal.
In one simple move, the FederalReserve goes from "villian" to "savior". What a scam!
See how simple it is to manipulate the world when you hold them by the throat? Unfortunately, few people today are understand how astronomically better off they would be if they just killed the beast (FederalReserve, FederalGovernment, fractional-reserve-practices, fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy "money" and eltist authoritarian dictatorship). Those few of us are more than happy to accept whatever short term discomforts are necessary to realize a permanently better years ahead, and throw off the balls and chains that bind us.
So, expect silver and gold to crash and burn as QE2 ends, or even in anticipation before QE2 ends. During the crash, the central banks will then buy up astronomical quantities of those assets with free money the create out of nothing via the fiat-debt-money and fractional-reserve-practices scam they have.
Then when they implement QE3 "to save the world", silver and gold will soar again, and their massively leveraged positions will give them astronomical gains.
And ALL of this will be done with insider information, and ALL of their gains will be criminal. However, they control the so-called "legal system", so they will not be punished, and they will retain their trillions of dollars of stolen goods... the very silver and gold they denigrate daily with phrases like "barbaric relic".
I'm not sure what is the best way to prepare, other than hold onto all your physical, prepare for a very short term crash of 50% or more in PM stocks, and buy with both hands when the prices of silver and gold crash in the next month or two. And for those who know how, a few well chosen put options against silver or gold producer stocks might be great protection.
Do NOT buy into their propaganda! Do NOT let their manipulation make you screw yourself over. Prepare for yet another massive manipulation and theft. They've created the perfect set-up for this, so almost certainly they'll do it.
You got junked but you may be correct.
I think bennie is going to let a deflation scare happen and ruin a bunch of inflation speculators before qe3 begins, if it is necessary. I dont think even bennie knows.for sure if qe3 will be needed or not. Animal spirits are hard to quantify.
Agreed TCT, an undeserved junk imvho for relating a very plausible scenario. You pays yer money and yah takes yer chances. Here is how I am placing my bets.
Obama cannot win in 2012 upon this trajectory.
Commods need to get knocked down and that right soon, to relieve the burden of the unwashed oxen of a taxpaying middle class (of which I am one).
If you ascribe to the notion that the Fed can control such things, then you have to agree that the price of oil is in need of control.
Somehow they will find a way to do that. The commods will come back, the market will come back, the $US will rally off its oblivion trajectory.
Short. Since last Monday, in fact; so well underwater but still short.
Well, I see the resident PM top calling cheerleaders are all over this like Michael Jackson on a pre teen, despite being consistently wrong for so long. Surprise, surprise.
You've outlined a plausible eventuality Honestann, no doubt. Cornered sociopaths are extremely dangerous and undpredictable animals.
But as this isn't 2008 or 1980 I wonder:
Is the USD still considered a 'safe haven' by anybody who doesn't have to pay their taxes in that currency (the rest of the world), or even those simply knowing what we all know about what is going to happen to the USD and its peers AFTER your predicted take down of the DOW, when QE3 is 'reluctantly' adopted? What if the only safe havens to catch a bid this time around are, well, actually bona fide safe havens rather than simply more of the same debt-based promises the world is currently making huge efforts to decouple itself from? IE The world will throw all their hard work ounce building away to run to a currency that they know is only on a contrived dead cat bounce and is really inherently worthless?
I know when margin calls come in everybody sells whatever happens to be green, but these days more and more creditors will gladly take gold as payment, and there are banks that desperately need silver on their books too, yesterday. So which currencies are/will be actually in deflation, be in demand in a crash? The ones that can be printed from zero to infinity at the snap of a finger? Or the ones that empower every nation/state/individual as their own private central bank?
The dollar/PM link has been showing signs of breaking down for quite some time now. The last couple of years it's not a given that when the dollar goes up PM's go down, more and more regularly strength in any fiat currency is being used as a 'divestment while the divesting is still good' opportunity.
If QE ends, does ZIRP? How about 'mark to skypie'?
The fact that everyone KNOWS how 2008 played out changes the game too, so in my mind the questions TPTB are asking themselves before they instigate another 2008 type event: will the entire world still flee directly to the USD or its peers in an emergency? Not everyone will have a choice, no doubt, but those that do? Will their respective populations stand for another round of bank bailouts at the expense of their great great great great grandchildren, or will they see them for what they really are: QEUnaccountable?
Or will we simply see another May 6 flash crash type justification for QE3? If that was a 'shot across the bow' to see what would happen, gold definitely made the 'safe haven' list.
I mean the rumblings all point to what you're saying Honestann, but they did last year too, admittedly with some notable differences. Saxxon makes a great point about the price of oil, which is a thorn in the side of anyone touting USD deflation. But hasn't the POTUS been getting louder about getting off oil? Sincere or not, could that be used to simply tell America that when it comes to high oil prices they are just going to have to 'suck it up'? And food, while more expensive, is not 'unobtainium' yet. Won't another crash like 2008 DEVESTATE, even beyond the BLS' powers of understatement, employment to levels 'a beka segge alatt' (under a frog's ass)?
Questions questions.
Just sayin'
Well, I certainly don't have a crystal ball, and hope I didn't come across as claiming otherwise.
I'm just doing what everyone with powers of observation and an independent mind does (presumably)... look at the evidence, look at the players and their motivations, and try to infer what is most likely.
The scenario I described is my best guess of what may well be next. Personally I'd prefer gold and silver continue their moonshots... but I just don't think that's gonna happen. Remember, 98% ~ 100% of my savings are in physical silver and gold.
I'm not so sure it's the government doing a setup. There are deep, deep capital pools at work in the markets... but I agree a head-fake is in process. When the rug is pulled ,we are looking at a massive correction. There is absolutely no logic in the markets. For #ucks sakes, everything goes up with a crisis.
We agee on the end result, just not on how we get there.
+10
You'll get no argument outta me. Anything is possible. Never underestimate the criminality of these cretins.
They know two things; fraud and force.
When the fraud no longer fools people, you know what comes after.
Hence the stocking up on the 3rd metal necessary for a healthy life: Pb.
bang on, honestann. the fed will fight like a cornered animal, expect every single dirty trick in the book. a 50% correction happened in the 70's so why shouldn't it happen again?
@Ivar
I'm not a veteran investor by any means but those are my feelings, too. The sheep are getting restless about QE, to the point they're putting pressure on their 'representatives' to speak out against it. I think TPTB will want to engineer a serious crash so their stooges in Congress will get renewed political cover to give them support to start the printing presses again. Commodities plummeting will ease inflation pressures, too.
I'm holding onto my core physical but I'm reducing my positions in paper and miner shares. God knows, it's a wrench, because the rises are euphoria-inducing. I may be kicking myself in a few weeks when silver hit $60, but frankly it's all feeling a little too good to be true at the moment.
I understand the desire to echo the 'PMs to the moon' sentiment (and I agree, in the long run, it will happen) but I don't think it will be allowed to happen just yet.
Usually the stock market prices in things like the end of QE.
I'm not seeing much selling there.
The stock market absorbed Japan, the middle east uprisings, the price of oil, the declines in treasurys, and the impending end of QE.
Could it be that the economy will actually survive???
If it did, what could we all complain about?
THAT is scary!
gh
...and as oil ticks higher and higher again, another nail goes into the coffin of the airline industry. They will be the first to fail. Mass consumer air travel has no future.
Maybe a bright spot in all this will be that the consumer finds that gropings and junk feeling is somehow negative to the "Ridership response" and adjust s accordingly. Nothing like massive hemmoraging to improve customer service.
Oh and just saw Larry Kudlow on the side banner. Bullish.
on Fri, 04/08/2011 - 16:46
#1151348
"Do not get too excited, that just brings correction, a major one, closer. In fact, silver feedback loop is getting hyper or super exponential, and that is not sustainable . Even comments here tell that irrational exhuberance has been engaged."
I will save your douche post for when silver breaks $50 in a month and then again at $60, $70, $80, $90 and then again at $100 before the year end is up to remind you to remove your head from your anus.
Looks like You have just anus. No head at all.
I just creamed my jeans.....o.O~!
Dang! I wanted more Ag before the price took off again. I guess it really doesn't matter. It'll still keep rising.
Dang! I wanted more Ag before the price took off again. I guess it really doesn't matter. It'll still keep rising.
Pretty amazing chart.
Typical pre-crash graph, with log-periodic oscillations and final characteristic dip before shooting into unsustainable super-exponential growth territory.
You're talking about the dollar and the US federal debt, right?
As well, but for it the crash will mean sudden reduction ( e.g. move into gold standard after some hyperinflation or before, by massive devaluation in 2013, wiping out real value of debt owned).
A useful statistics site:
http://www.shadowstats.com/
CPI at 9% in FEB 2011, Unemployment 22%.
Latest graphs here show interesting increasing divergence in CPI:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&p=31676#p31676
So can you fit a curve to this, give the equation, and show your log-periodic fit, along with the equation that generates it?
Sornette can. There seems to be already enough periodic oscillations. It not so simple, but to see a pattern is simple once You have recognized it. Read his articles on market crash predictions, look at his drawings if equations are too hard.
E.g here in its simplest form: Financial crisis observatory
http://www.er.ethz.ch/fco/index
http://www.er.ethz.ch/fco/Five-bubbles-fantastic_CNN-Money_23Aug10.pdf
Note verdict on gold : A major bubble.
Interesting prediction of next financial crisis in 2015 ( I think we will not get into it):
http://www.er.ethz.ch/fco/TheFinancialCrisis2015-OliverWyman.pdf
Right, typical pre-crash graph.
But it looked that way several times over the last few months.
Go ahead, pick a top!
Pre-crash graphs only look like pre-crash graphs AFTER the crash!
Remember that if you want to keep your money.
gh
stop panicking. Back in 2008 USD IDX was way lower and DJIA was way higher. BULLISH!
This is the dip.....LOL
Maybe you're right! But at some point there will be slight dip dontcha think? I'm waitin to buy some more now.
Silver turns forty? Where's the party?
When they lose on the shorts, future taxpayers lose. So-o-o-o, who do you think is buying, bigtime? Blythe, that's fucking who!!!
I turned 40 a few months back. I'm a lot happier about $40/oz.
All the Ag gangsters are loving it....i used to think this old geezer neighbor of mine was crazy because he was obsessed with silver and kept selling me on it but wow...he honestly must have a fortune now, the guy had pounds and pounds of it.
www.forecastfortomorrow.com
Seriously, thanks to all for the diverse views. I drill holes in the ground to keep your cars running, I'm not a trader. But the conversations here allow a view that's simply not available anywhere else I know. Hat tip to all, no matter what your opinion!
me thinks silver will go apeshit next week, we could see daily $2-3 sharp zigzag moves
As long as the first one is down, that would be wonderful. I booked paper gains today (I'm not made of stone), but now I'm stuck in this fiat scheiße.
Bite me, Bernanke! My silver is going to chew up your dollars and use them for toilet paper. You and that Muslim criminal you work for can go to he....
Is it time for Jamie to give himself another $17 Million Bankman's Bonus?
The silver producers index is forming a contracting triangle, after doubling in the last 12 months (& up 600% since late '08). Should make for a good move either way once it breaks out of the formation:
http://miningalmanac.com/silver_producers
I'm laughing at everyone who called me crazy when I said silver would save us after the next collapse. I've got so much it's not even funny! I'll be puffing smoke all over my silver bars while the dollar evaporates into thin air :)
www.forecastfortomorrow.com
Do you like yours with ketchup??
gh
Not that fair value matters at all for trading (didn't stop silver from hitting $50 in 1980 money nor $4 twenty years later, but I like to think of the price in terms of what it would buy during the old hard-money, stable currency days.
In the rich (for the time) US before WW1, you could earn a silver dollar (0.77oz Ag) a day doing basic labor. The figure was less in poor old Europe, and less still in Roman times (a 0.14oz denarius per day).
The equivalent working stiff today makes about $80-120, so 2.5oz or about 3 silver dollars. So silver is still cheap by that measure.
But when you consider what a day's wages could buy in terms of materials goods and services, the worker today is much richer, thanks to 100 years of technology and economies of scale. $100/day can get you a modern car, enough food to get fat on, cable TV, an oil- or gas-heated home, your own bathroom, etc.
The guy making only enough to afford a 1905 working-class living (no car, very little energy use, basic food, tenement housing) would be more like a Ukrainian or lower-middle class Indian. We're talking $3/hour, about a silver dollar a day.
whoa! NICE historical context / background!
Lot's of folks here at ZH (and at other otherwise sensible sites) keep looking back to some MYTHICAL age when American workers "had it good."
the ONLY time American workers had it good, was in the days after WWII, when UNION WAGES, UNION JOBS, union PAY SCALE, and UNION BENEFITS made it possible for ANYONE with a good job (excluding farm labor, etc.) to at least dream the middle-class dream (home ownership, a car, decent public schools, a college education for the kids, secure savings, even pensions & health care, etc.)
I've just listed the UNION SCALE BENEFITS that POWERED the post-WWII rise of the great American middle class.
To see what the ALTERNATIVE could have been, see Eric Clapton's bio (on CD) - he was born out of wedlock to a mom from a small, poor working family in England after the war; the family so poor, they didn't have indoor plumbing. This was the typical fate for Brits after their great wars... what set Americans APART in the 1950s, was UNION SCALE wages & benefits, and gi-normous BIG GOVERNMENT SPENDING in the cold war (thousands of nuclear weapons, missiles, and conventional military items), the interstate highway system, and STRICT LIMITS on FINANCIAL doings, eg FDIC & Glass Steagall, etc.
Plenty of blog commenters out there have the fantasy that they would be successful businessmen, even if the larger economy were in one of America's many "panics," recessions, depressions, and economic contractions... see the Colorad Mining wars, where the Rockefellers hired the Baldwin-Felts "security agency" to drive a machine-gun armed armoured car through striking miners camps (killing nearly 2 dozen) - the miners were protesting the nearly DAILY FATALITIES at the ruthless rockefeller run mines.
Couldn't disagree more about why Americans did better than Brits at that time. The UK was much more socialist than the US, with price and wage controls, state-owned industries and all sorts of nonsense.
Plus, the wars devastated that country in terms of capital and men, while America's losses were much smaller compared to its size and wealth. BTW, neither the UK nor the US needed be involved in either continental war, but their leaders were warmongering egomaniacs, and rent-seeking bankers & industrialists stood to make good money.
fiat you got facts strait but like most leftist shills came to the wrong conculsions..
unions fit a need at the time..as more of the workers kids who could, would became small businessmen and professionals it became a different story..
now gov has been co opted to suppress the growing wealth of the middle class and is a tool used to protect the oligarchies and crony capitalists while destroying the ability of the common citizen to earn and retain wealth.
Unions have only now been used to suppress that progress..example GM union owned builds a plant in China and Mexico after the bailout..great for those union workers in detroit no?
Being banksters they will all take huge short positions in everything and then pull the plug on dollar handouts. Crash, boom, stocks and everything will plunge. Trillions to the banksters. The banksters will then move to longs. and Bernanke will state that QE3 is necessary to save these guys. More trillions for the banksters. Buy physical.
excellent comment, thanks for that.
The central banksters (based on the rothschild's model) have been PUMPING & DUMPING rivals (banks, bonds, entire nations) into the gutter for 200 years now. Jim Cramer even put out that "FOMENTING" video (censored on YouTube, you have to look around for clips) EXPLAINING HOW the big hedge funds "pump" or DUMP a stock - he even used as examples RIMM (Blackberry) and APPL, Cramer's fund would spend $10 million, through various front traders, to CREATE THE IMPRESSION of a move, then pull his buys, or DUMP his sales, to get the BIG MOVE that he intended to capitalize on.
Needless to say, that the SEC & feds didn't go after Cramer, just explains that the Feds (who WENT AFTER & IMPRISONED Martha Stewart for one-one-THOUSANDTH as much, "dumping" a lousy $55,000 of ImClone stock she had EVERY RIGHT to sell) just shows that the entire US government - DOJ, SEC, FBI, white house & con-gress - are IN BED with the gangsters, treasury looters, and economy wrecking fraudsters.
I'll take a 31% appreciation in the price of Silver since the start of 2011. No problem. You're not gaining you know. You're just losing slower than everybody else.
$2.3321491020 is the total melt value for the 1942-1945 silver nickel on April 08, 2011
what's that in inflation rate?...methinks its a bit more than the 2% claimed.