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Simon Black On Apple As A Symbol Of "Peak Empire"
"Sovereign Man" Simon Black's daily musing comes today from the Franz Josef glacier in New Zealand where he contemplates the present and future of a civilization in which the biggest company in the world (soon enough) will be one that creates a la carte fads and focuses on one-time mindless gratification. "We live in rather interesting times, though; the technology sector’s
engineering brilliance goes where demand and financial incentives are
the greatest… and for now, that seems to be designing devices that can
mimic flatulence or geolocate the nearest pizzeria. This will change eventually as the problems worsen and society’s
priorities shift… but for now, I think that Apple’s soaring profits and
society’s evangelical devotion to its products may be a social
reflection of the final days of Rome." If Apple is a sign of the end of empire, we would be even more curious with Simon's take on Netflix' symbology (which continues trading at such ludicrous forward multiples that excel goes straight to the BSOD when any modeling is attempted).
From Sovereign Man:
Apple’s Success and Peak Empire
December 13, 2010
Franz Josef Glacier, New Zealand
Even before Edward Gibbon published his famous treatise in the late
1700s, historians have frequently debated the causes of the fall of the
Roman Empire.
Some, like Gibbon, argued that Roman society’s moral decline was the
root cause, while others such as Toynbee suggested that the mere concept
of the empire was doomed from its inception due to institutional decay.
Whatever the reason, one thing is certain: it happened gradually,
with each successive generation of Romans becoming accustomed (willingly
or forcibly) to the new normal of their inflationary police state.
Most historians point to the reign of Emperor Commodus (180-192 AD)
as the beginning of the end of the Roman Empire; early Roman historian
Cassius Dio described the rule of Commodus as Rome’s turning point from a
“kingdom of gold to one of rust and iron.”
Commodus was known for his harsh cruelty, debauchery, and insanity;
contemporary historians suggest that Commodus actually believed he was
the reincarnation of Hercules, and he had a penchant for staging
expensive (and fixed) gladiatorial exhibitions in which he would
personally compete.
By the time of his assassination, Rome was nearly bankrupt… though
this didn’t stop future emperors from continuing the tradition of
self-indulgent largess.
If they didn’t have enough gold, they would plunder. If their armies
were too weak to plunder, they would raise taxes and debase the
currency. By the time of Aurelian in 270, the silver content in Rome’s
coins had fallen to less than 2%, losing any appearance of being silver
at all.
It didn’t seem to matter much. Romans were convinced that the gods
favored them, and that it was their natural place in the global pecking
order to be the world’s dominant superpower.
The games continued, and Romans were too preoccupied watching
gladiators and chariot races to notice that, like boiling frogs, they
were being slowly heated by their imperial leadership.
I was thinking about this history recently while browsing some
financial headlines like “Apple stock heading to $500″ and “This will be
Apple’s Decade” and “Steve Jobs- Messiah.”
Apple is certainly an innovative company, and Steve Jobs is a media
and technology visionary… but since dropping the “Computer” from its
name in 2007, Apple Inc.’s primary focus is designing devices that
facilitate the consumption of mindless and distracting media drivel.
Sure, iPhones and iPads are nice things, but with so many analysts
expecting the stock to keep soaring, what does it say about our society
that this may soon become the most valuable company in the world?
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not opposed to the company or any of the
consumer devices that it develops… it just seems to me that, given all
the problems in the world, there are more pressing matters than camping
out for 3-days to get the latest iPad release.
Like the Romans, our currencies are being debased and our governments
are bankrupt. Economies are stalling, North Korea is saber-rattling
again, worldwide governments are stamping out privacy and transparency,
and a global food and water crisis is looming.
And, like the Romans, most people seem too preoccupied to either care
much or make the necessary preparations to ride out the storm.
Technology is really a wonderful thing; I think that it will be newly
developed technologies that ultimately pull humanity out of the mess
that we’ve created for ourselves.
We live in rather interesting times, though; the technology sector’s
engineering brilliance goes where demand and financial incentives are
the greatest… and for now, that seems to be designing devices that can
mimic flatulence or geolocate the nearest pizzeria.
This will change eventually as the problems worsen and society’s
priorities shift… but for now, I think that Apple’s soaring profits and
society’s evangelical devotion to its products may be a social
reflection of the final days of Rome.
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"I don't care."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FL7yD-0pqZg
Apple = Fall of Rome? Hilarious.
I'm no fan boy, but the reason why Apple is going through the roof is because it produces a product people want. Plus once payment gateways move mobile, Apple has the means to usurp Visa and Mastercard.
Of course, Steve Jobs is not immortal
Apple is big on the trusted computing model. Basically they lock down the software and force you to go through their application and media portal.
The next step is code signing the operating system and not allowing anything to run that doesn't pass the test as administered by the CPU. Intel is big on this technology. More so than the powerpc technology can provide.
Perhaps the trust will fade shortly with this new app:
iPhone snitch network launched
Jason Douglass | A new iPhone App with the misleading name ‘PatriotApp’ attempts to draw on the power of the patriot movement, turning smartphone users into a gigantic snitch network.
Steve Jobs v1.0 is dead. that emaciated wreck is the body double. OR a hologram. every 30 years or so they'll roll out a new version, slightly thinner and older. but he'll , for all practical purposes, be immortal.
I think they've lost touch with their true customer base and while they've been rolling out mass market cheese ball advertising the real Appleheads have been checking out alternative technology. If anyone takes a look at their "Back to the Mac" press conference from Oct you can see how little credit for intelligence they now give their customers - it was actually listening to them that made them popular in the first place.
Also interesting that the number of viruses being reported as now affecting Macs is increasing.................. silent protest maybe? Sure with greater adoption rates the incentive for criminal enterprise increases blah blah.
Steve Jobs is a smary dick who doesn't deserve your money.
You have entirely missed the point of the article, which wasn't an attack on AAPL.
humm, glad I was not alone on that observation.
At the checkout counter the other day and joked with another customer that as long as McDonalds was around, and the government put free charging stations under the bridges, most everyone would be quite happy. Two teens, giggled and said "so, what's wrong with that".
Yet another person literally cribbing my notes!!!
I am the original thinker on Apple being the new 'Bread' in the 'Bread & Circus' scam, where iPads are bought with unemployment insurance and money that used to be used to pay for mortgages, groceries, etc. (mtg defaults & electronic debit food cards help with this), while the really smart criminals steal trillions off the top.
Damn you, Simon Black!!!!
<waving fist in hostile & angry fashion>
And I presume he wanders the world and has people pay him for his insights in a subscription? Not a bad gig...
"Simon Black On Apple As A Symbol Of "Peak Empire"
"I am the original thinker on Apple being the new 'Bread' in the 'Bread & Circus' scam"
It's much worse! If the historical tale (fabricated or not) about the Garden of Eden is anything to go by "Apple" spells nothing but trouble for mankind.
The Apple will turn our lives into a living Hell.
LMAO
It's much worse! If the historical tale (fabricated or not) about the Garden of Eden is anything to go by "Apple" spells nothing but trouble for mankind.
Then Steve Jobs is Satan?
The Apple has turned our lives into a living Hell.
There, fixed it.
Apple + (steve) jobs=no jobs? I never thought of the irony of the apple being from the garden of eden...damn those self fulfilling prophecies.
I find Apple rather perverse in that they do not actually produce anything except design documents and profit.
They design the gadgets and subcontract the production, pollution and OSHA hassle to others. The music is provided by artists who receive a very small fraction of the value.
Hmm.... Perhaps I'm just jealous that I didn't buy a crap load of their stock many years back.
They do make their operating systems in house. That is not a small endeavor.
Only in parts. The operating system is largely based on the BSD kernel. So are the tools. The browser is hugely borrowing from the KDE (Konquerror) browser, the compiler (LLVM) they use is open source as well.
Still they do a great job at integrating and making things look shiny, but the open source movement deserves some credit here. It's on those giants sholders they are standing (software wise).
not so much. though the systems integration they do is not a small task
kernel is mach from CMU.
much (most) of the user-space library code is from bsd, except for the 2D gfx and UI which has at least roots from Next Computer.
3D gfx is OpenGL
compilers are open source (gnu or llvm)
even the web browser is largely open source -- webkit, roots in KDE project.
We're all ostriches now. I think many people do see the cracks in the facade, but to contemplate the unsustainability of the empire is a scary thing. And so they turn back to the safety of mass-produced, mind-numbing entertainment and gadgets, effectively burying their heads in the sand.
But in my version, Apple is sustenance to them. They have nearly infinite choices for their 'Circus' in modern day Amerika.
We're not all ostriches, but I will admit that the mindless entertainment can sometimes suck you in like a black hole.
To suggest that people are now burying their heads in the sand is to suggest that there was a time that they didn't have their heads buried in the sand.
The world was truly made for those who lack self-awareness.
So true. Mobile telecommunications and internet connectivity is so frivolous to those who wish they lived in the days before electricity was discovered. What a freakin joke.
The perils of technology innovation are beginning to outweigh the benefits. I often wonder if there will be a revolt against these products. Facebook is the worst.
Want to revolt? It's easy. Put it down and walk away from it.
For the last week I have been asking people, "Would you rather have 100 shares of Apple or a 2011 Lexus?"
The resounding answer has been 100 shares of Apple stock, because it will go up.
I'd take the Lexus so I can run people over to escape the rioting.
Yeah, but what are you going to wipe your ass with?
I'd take the Lexus so I can run people over to escape the rioting.
We're all getting Lexi for Christmas from our spouses/family members. With ginormous red bows on top.
Be sure to get the big one. Don't want to risk someone bouncing off and then getting up all pissed.
What low end Lexus can you buy (new) for 32 grand? I spent that much for almost the bottom level Lexus 11 years ago.
more specific Roman Empire comparisons here
When does a market crash become a depression
...so Commodus begat the decline, huh?
Spaniard! Spaniard! Spaniard! Spaniard! …
Great Picture
Your picture rocks
Yes, that's all iPhones do is make fart sounds and find you food. Kinda like how a computer is only good for porn and watching movies and spoons are good for preparing heroin or making music.
I get it, Simon thinks the end of the world is coming because a fraction of the US population (and not a huge one) likes to have an Apple made computing device in their pocket. Yeah, I do think that the stock is overpriced, but most of the stock market is grossly overvalued as has been made abundantly clear on ZH.
I don't get his connection with the fall of Rome. Every society in the history of man likes their distractions, particularly of the crude/vulgar variety. Ours are mainly tame in comparison with most of history.
Declinists are so over the top it's hilarious. Yes, I do think times are going to get worse for a bit than they are now. No, I do not think the world is going to collapse into a world war, with massive food, energy, and water shortages. We are in the midst of the failure of the capitalist entitlement society. The question is if we go towards the Chinese model (modern capitalistic feudalism) or back towards a capitalistic republic with a better set of checks and balances the protect the weak from the powerful and the few (and often powerful) from the masses.
My personal opinion is that our current model and China's model converge somewhere in between.
Regardless, globalist society isn't going to go anywhere barring a massive lobbing of WMDs.
LOL @ the junking. Why? Because I don't buy into the end of the world scenario? I just don't see the need for extremism or any other "ism" here.
I simply can not see how society is going to be overrun by the barbarian hordes and a dark age will fall upon us (barring massive use of WMD scenarios).
Economics is a social science. Money is a social construct. Exchange of goods, labor, etc... All of that infrastructure is not going to go away if our robber barrons in DC and Wall Street go bankrupt.
I thought your post was an interesting read, certainly a sincerely expression of your opinion, i.e. not trolling, etc. And it was obvious you took care in writing it. I too disagree with the junking.
Thank you for the kind words.
I have no problem with someone disagreeing, just please write it out instead of mindlessly crapping on an opinion.
What makes you think that a massive nuclear war would leave only "Barbarians" roaming the earth. Given that the first targets of the nukes are command and control, the central government, the financial centers, and large cities, a nuclear war could just as readily restore our civilization.
Agree that it might be better, but I was just using that as a caveat to what I don't see happening, i.e. the destruction of modern society.
If the other uses by the casual user were that productive, there should not be that debt issue, shouldnt there?
It's a stupid argument. Sounds like someone's upset that he missed out and continues to miss out on one of the best stock plays in recent history. Strong earnings for incredibly well made products that can't meet demand. Growth is in early stages globally.
Simon, get with the program - quit whining and buy some shares.
amen brother. I am up 5% in my account alone, today!
Ben Shalom is the man! His thesis will be in every econ textbook someday.
The laws of Macro Economists are being re-written before our eyes, folks
Harry, when are you going to answer my question(s)? When does your professional assignment on the study of ZH perma-bears end? How many avatars do you use?
Waddya do when mold infects your petri dish(es)? Like any good scientist, Harry should throw them away and start the experiment over (somewhere else -- the subjects KNOW about the experiment, which will change the results!)
Apple yes, but the E! networks, "Bridalplasty" is a better example.. its BRUTAL.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bridalplasty
Really? We're going to make Apple the poster child for this? Frankly, I get actual, productive business use out of most of their products.
If you're going to hang it on someone or something, why not Electronic Arts? or XBox? or Playstation? or ESPN? or American Idol? or WalMart?
Yeesh.
You have a point. Their stuff works, which is nice. it doesn't hang all the time like some versions of windows. I see my roommate and a friend both getting good [business related] value out of their apple stuff. But what about the other 97% of the users, huh?
When are we going to see real articles pointing out the ridiculousness of our society. Yes, we all know that because consumerism is #1 priority for U.S. citizens, Apple has become way overvalued.
How about an article that identifies why you can drive down Interstate 10 in Texas, Louisiana etc and see mexicans towing cars like it's a circus attraction. Sometimes you can see a van/truck towing 2 cars behind it looking dangerously unsafe. Why would there be mexicans towing cars down to mexico you may ask? Because citizens in the U.S. value new cars so much that they throw away older very useful cars that Mexicans buy at auction for $100 which they then take to Mexico for people there to use. Often times, the cars can be resold for a couple thousand dollars.
The average U.S. consumer is so over indebted yet doesn't even keep very useful cars but instead has to have the very newest available. This should be the true indicator of a failing empire.
our cellphones end up in the 3rd world as well, the used ones.
Also, I saw "Chicago Bears Superbowl XLI Champion" Tshirts and hats on africans on a documentary
+500
Not just the U.S. Empire...
"Former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has said he fears the euro will face a "high noon" moment of reckoning early in the New Year.
"I sense that in the first few months of 2011 we [will] have a major crisis in the euro area," he told BBC business editor Robert Peston.
He said the euro's problems were bigger than just its governments' debts."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11953413
Why would anyone listen to anything Gordon Brown has to say on the subjects of money and economics?
In order to profit from acting contrary to his opinion, perhaps.
This thoughts were brought to you from the wonderful person who sold his countries gold on the absolute low point of market price. It's the same person who even announced his move before selling.
Everyone watches the Mo Mo stocks like Aapl, Nflx, Amzn, Goog, Gs, Crm, etc. Yet, if you own any other stocks they are not really up that much. Most are not anywere near their proir highs.
The Stocks zooming are the ones that bar Retail participation due to the high price. So Hedgefunds and Mutuals give each other more love each day. The ones that Retail can participate in never get out of the gate much less go up. It is a travisty.
ZH and other sources had articles on just a few symbols comprising the majority of the rise in DOW and Nasdaq indices.
Basically all the eggs are in just a few baskets...
The Bernank gets more bang for his 'wealth effect' buck hittin' the major indexes.
I missed this. Do you, or anyone else here, have a link. I'd love to take a look at that.
Thanks.
I am looking for you TJW. Will post here if I can get links and stories. It was over the summer I believe.
One would also point out that these are they very same stocks that jam the market higher due to their % weighting in the Nazz. Hmm, put that together with HFT and....
I think that is why the Gold, Silver, Copper stocks are higher as they are moving the Market. Problem is that they also are causing the most pain with the Majority of Americans. Higher Oil, Gas and Food prices.
The Stock Market gain is costing Americans Trillions in higher Oil, Food and consumer goods. Not to mention the Devaluation of their Dollar.
Good for Wall Street they are impoverishing the Majority of Americans. They should be proud of themselves.
Just think about how much of that 144 Billion of Bonuses being paid to Wall Street came out of the Average Americans living expenses.
In the meantime my father can say with a straight face that he is up again. Its painful.
AAPL is not a "momo stock" like NFLX or CRM. AAPL is actually very fairly valued here and future growth, as we're seeing, will be astronomical as supply continues to outstrip demand.
AAPL is a stock you put away for a long time and just let it keep growing your portfolio.
Just like GM was. It sure found plenty of support at zero.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXc_z5x5oQY
Apple is simply the current "King of High-Tech". But, not a decade ago, it was a dog, and destined for bankruptcy. The point of this statement is that Kings of tech don't last as kings for all that long. Just look at Cisco or Microsoft. Worse, look at Digital Equipment corp, DELL, 3COM, Sun, etc... Now, throw in the fact that 75% of a company's valuation is based on projected earnings and growth 5 years out and into perpetuity, you have a problem. The fact is that in 5 years, nobody knows if Apple can stay the King. 10 years, probabilities are far worse for Apple. Not saying Apple is going to wither and die. But, investing in the current King of Tech is a sure way to loose money.
That said, I'm an Apple product fan. The reason: they just work. I have moved many family members from Windows to Mac. They love it and not longer suffer from the pain it is to manage and maintain their computers. My tech support calls have fallen dramatically. Personally, I own a combo of Macs and Linux systems. But, I would not wish Linux on anyone (too hard to maintain for novices). But, Linux (Ubuntu at least) works! Windows is just an exercise in pain. In 10 years, who knows, Google (or someone else) and the cloud may make buying computers only something tech guys do. Everyone will simply have a tablet, TV or some other cloud based machine where few actually applications would reside on one's machine. Who knows who will be king in that eco-system. Odds are that it will not be Apple. But, buying them now at this price is silly. Money in Apple has already been made. Better investment out there...
Well said!
Irate Irishman Explains Debt
O.T but I think you should see it...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=koY6kXhQDQo
"Everybody gets their day in the sunshine."
Where is the 'man on the street' in Amerika that would give that interview to some reporter?
I guess it matters not, because the 'smile bright' media in the U.S. (all 6 corporate owned conglomerates) would never show it.
Bernanke needs to spend more time with his family.
shinny black glass and aluminum apple devices outperform sand 6:1 (by weight) as a head-burrying material
Watch out for the Big Black Birds up on that Glacier.
They were all over us on Mt Cook. Hungry, Angry, Loud, Big, Funny... Till they put a knot and a big peck upside your mellon.
Haha.
Apple. Yeah. I have been in IT for over 20 years in various capacities from coding VB and HPVEE to Networking to Sysadmin and many others.
From where I stand, Macs and apple are nothing but toys. If you need to audio/video edit they can be very nice to have around.
I have seen their servers used for very special applications involving data capture, but that was when they ran PowerPC.
Now they are consumer (not enerprise) grade toys.
I safely ignore them as they are not permissed in most enterprise environments.
Not true. Enterprise adaption rates for iPads and Macs have gone through the roof. The iphone is also grabbing a much larger share of corporate as well.
Yeah, I keep hearing that. Not seeing it though.
If you actually produce anything, you will not be satifsfied with a little touch screen.
If you are an execu consumer of condensed, pre-digested information, then a macpad might be the ticket.
The new OS Ten changed a macs for the better, but the dropping of the PPC Architechture got rid of the main reason for owning one IMHO.
Now they are not so limited in respect to software if you care to hack at em a bit. Just like a linux box, but kinda better. Mach Microkernel and all.
Overall, they are a backward ass way to do shit on an Enterprise. But whatever. It's your money.
"Eliza", you're beginning to fail the Turing Test.
This piece makes great points!!!
We're seeing with the evolution of the web... trends that tragically came to dominate television...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEB IS THE MOST FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN PEER-TO-PEER RELATIONSHIP SINCE THE MOVE TO SETTLED EXISTENCE!
People often don't stop to think how much LOST opportunity for building a landscape for better governance and citizenship resulted from the LOUSY way television (as a cultural phenomena) evolved. Entertainment is fine and profit is fine... and those are doing just great, thank you... but the Internet is a much, much bigger deal than television... and mankind will have to pay a heavy price if we allow it to become just another path to Huxley's Brave New World and amuse ourselves to death.
We are frogs in a rapidly heating pot of water... afraid to jump out!
Re-Igniting the Enlightenment: On Building Landscapes for Decision
http://culturalengineer.blogspot.com/2010/12/re-igniting-enlightenment-on-building.html
I love the comments here. If I manufacture a device that saves gas and time and improves efficiency then people should be glad. Geolocating the nearest decent sushi restaurant saves me time and money on a business trip. We sometimes get too involved in our artificial constructs of service versus manufacture. I am surprised seeing Tyler durdens act like that crazy guy who goes to jail a lot and talks about the "physical" economy. What's his name.
"Geolocating the nearest decent sushi restaurant saves me time and money on a business trip."
Really?
I save time and money by nuking the ramen I packed in my luggage.
Then I spoof a key card, go to every room collect all the miniature soaps and shampoos, put them in a big box and Fed Ex them from the Hotel directly to Minisoapbroker.com. My check is waiting when I return home. It usually pays for the Airfare.
I save more time and money by eliminating business trips with http://www.gotomeeting.com/fec/
But the 13 car pile up that you caused from looking at your iphone while driving 70mph is only in your rear view mirror...good thing you weren't involved in that.
Is there a phucking 'App for that?'
see this is where i disagree, there is no economic advantage to any of the social networking devices. it might be that social and economic interests are like thesis and anti thesis. the principle of a mobile labor force is what built this economy, (turning us into nomadic wanderers. the social networking devices allow us to stay put, at least for the time being. a real economy takes something and adds value to it. finding the best sushi restaurant, and really you can tell which is the best sushi restaurant with a iphone app? at best i call that gullible.like the myth of the labor saving device, which you have to operate and maintain yourself. we have somebody take care of our lawn, not because we are lazy, but because lawn movers are a pain in the ass to maintain and repair. just part of the first service environment, the suburban home, what a crock that was.
Not to mention the ridiculously short life cycles of these products. Buy a new one every year? Please.
But of course. People no longer know what saving means. That is a consumer society, instant reward mindset. I experience it every day.
People often ask why I drive around for a 50 yards walk. I dont answer them. Useless. I merely smiled politely at them. Because the guy who invented the car wanted me to save on my shoes. And I am glad to him for inventing a device that helps me to save on my shoes.
I am going to buy a Iphone or something like that. Because often, I parked the car away from the entrance door and I have to walk 20 yards to make it to the front door. So if a guy somewhere has invented a device that helps me to geolocate the front door so I can park the car right in front of it, I'll save on my shoes. Count me in.
Fools have been equating one current event or another to the final days of Rome for the past 500 years. But of course they're not wrong, they're just early.
They weren't wrong in England, France, Spain, Portugal, Japan, USSR, etc. etc.
But this time it's different!
Peak Empire occurred somewhere between 1960 and 1992 depending on how you measure it with that question remaining unanswerable until our final decline, which arguably started in 2003 is complete. Only then we we know which of our foolish mis-adventures was responsible for cascading us to our end. That said right now the maintenance of Empire after it bankrupted the Soviets is the leading candidate.
lotta people are simply clueless about history and why shit happens. Lemme help.
The US won WW2, we all know that...but WHY did we win? Why not Germany? How was it that we and the Soviets won? What was the war really about?
Well, it was about oil. It just so happens that the 2 great 20th century empires were the world #1 and #2 oil producers for like 70 years. Then, something happened to one of the empires. Its production peaked. This was in 1970...it was the USA. And, all of a sudden, collapse seemed inevitable. The BW accord came apart, inflation was rampant, seemed like we couldn't do anything well, and Mondale was even talking unilateral disarmament. But, the powers here were clever and hooked the Saudis into having the USD sort of be buttressed by debt and ME production. We sort of erected an imperial structure there and began encircling the strategic oilfields. This is the petrodollar. And it worked. We roped the major ME producers into the dollar zone.
Meanwhile, the Soviets were going strong with their empire. Until something happened. They peaked in 1989. And it shouldn't require great genius to figure out what happened next. There were no great producers in their sphere of influence upon which they could further support their empire and currency. We had made the necessary strategic moves 15 years earlier. So, the USSR collapsed.
It was not bankrupted by Raygun or Star Wars. You cannot "bankrupt" a nation that can print currency...it was bankrupted by inability to grow. It could certainly grow "credit" and paper but it could not grow real things such as energy. Its mitigation plan in terms of nuclear proved to be a disaster, i.e., Chernobyl.
The soviets could have "spent" whatever they needed, but they could not print oil or anything else real for that matter. Assuming the maintenance of their empire required steel, if steel peaked and was in sudden deficit, the empire would have collapsed as a result. This is simply how things work.
The US Empire is entering its 2nd phase of collapse as a result of the peaking of oil within its larger imperial sphere. I mean, look around, a lot of 70's-ish talk out there. The same sort of general malaise, lack of confidence, etc. The system's energy inputs are no longer growing.
Whenever you talk about energy I always read your posts carefully.
Your ability to clinically dissect and distill this core energy issue is the gold standard here among ZH posters as far as I have seen.
Thanks!
trav7777 + Harry are the reason I come to visit Zerohedge.
Trav, you don't have a blog do you?
Germany <3. US entry into WWII was a total lie and waste!
incredible depth of knowledge and insight that makes me jealous.
Can I keep my I-Pad in the dark ages?
I am gross and perverted
I'm obsessed 'n deranged
I have existed for years
But very little had changed
I am the tool of the government
And industry too
For I am destined to rule
And regulate you
I may be vile and pernicious
But you can't look away
I make you think I'm delicious
With the stuff that I say
I am the best you can get
Have you guessed me yet?
I am the slime oozin out
From your iCircus set
Apologies to FZ - "I'm the Slime"
FZ was brilliant... Went wayyy over many, many peoples heads at the time.
Peak empire ended with the Gulf of Tonkin set-up.
If only our governments were as innovative and well run as Apple!
Where does all the Apple hate come from? They are simply entrepeneurs seeking to alleviate consumers' felt uneasiness. If you don't like their products, don't buy them.
Exchanging $400 to buy an Iphone so you can make fart noises is objectively no better or worse than exchanging your time to read Zerohedge.
wow... really?
Educating yourself about some of the many complexities (on this site mostly economic and financial) surrounding us in this world is equivalent to making fart noises on a portable computing device?
That is an indicative comment... indicative to the point of the article really.
Keep on DOOMING its a free world!
First, these devices are like any other device in the hands of humans. The content pursued on them is not an indictment of the device, but of the user.
I LOVE LOVE LOVE my Ipad. I use it to read FT, WSJ, ZH, and books. It's form factor has genuinely improved my life. I am able to read more frequently and more variety than ever before.
But if the primary use of my Ipad was as a porn engine, well...
Second, no technology short of beaming ourselves from place to place has the remotest possiblity of generating sufficient capital windfall to dig us out of this hole.
I hear people say "There was no Google 10 years ago," but what has the presence of Google, Apple, or anyone else done to pull us out of this financial death spiral?
just bought the ipad for wife's birthday. never, i mean never have i bought a better gift. it was homerun of a gift!
Pretty sure the wife would have been pleased to receive a 1/2-Oz Gold Eagle, with a holder and Gold chain also.
and what about google? their new search engine is really starting to piss me off with that autocomplete and autosearch function!
And maybe not everybody noticed, but I have 3 pc's at home. They all share the same IP. And on every search, it show all the previous searches on all the pc's.
There are a lot of ways around this.
http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2006/01/70051?currentPage=all
Much newer stuff is out there... Try firefox with some add ons like No Script.
plus you can "turn off" the new feature.
Is this a "Belgium" thing, or is your ethernet router set up that way?
Currently LONG and HARD AAPL. It has been kind to me.
Nothing else is coming. The Recession is over! Better get used to it
"the technology sector’s engineering brilliance goes where demand and financial incentives are the greatest… and for now, that seems to be designing devices that can mimic flatulence or geolocate the nearest pizzeria"
"The ultimate goal of human action is always the satisfaction of the acting man’s desire. There is no standard of greater or lesser satisfaction other than individual judgments of value, different for various people and for the same people at various times. What makes a man feel uneasy and less uneasy is established by him from the standard of his own will and judgment, from his personal and subjective valuation. Nobody is in a position to decree what should make a fellow man happier." - Ludwig von Mises in Human Action
Sure. It is certainly not like technology was expected to provide solutions to enable a deflationary growth energy wise...
huh? the final "days" of Rome? History, anyone?
Um...this may come as a shock but the final "days" of Rome took CENTURIES. There was no "moment" in which the empire fell. It just petered out over half a millennium, and to a large extent was carried forward by subsequent empires operating out of its latter-day capital
Yes, I always chuckle when I hear people say "the final days of the Roman Empire". Took a long, long time for that to happen. As I keep saying, we are at least 2-3 decades away from any backlash our spending may have on future generations.
The WORST is behind and is hardly visible taking a peak into the rear-view mirror.
Double-Dippers were wrong! (go watch DP porno on your IPAD, doomers!)
Harry, I love you. Your insights are grade-A. If people just traded on your advice (I don't) they would have made a handsome return instead of running their filthy dead-wrong doomer mouth year round!
Forgive me if I challenge your predictive skills nostrawanger. I love it when peeps try to predict how its gonna be like you alone possess that wisdom. The rest of us dumb sjits, well we're just dumb shits, huh harry?
No, I would never call anyone here a "dumbshit". Psychologically, it's difficult for people to ever admit they were wrong. They tend to find others that agree with their viewpoints and reinforce their beliefs, even when wildly incorrect.
To deny the economy is stronger than it was last year or that it's improving (ECRI Leading Index at -1.5% BTW from July's -11%). It's not being a "dumbshit" it's just built into our psyche. The good thing is, some people recognize and are able to move forward, thus profiting from their change in attitude.
Harry, what the hell is the ECRI Leading Index?
Would these qualify as indices, too?
FoodStamp usage up 16.2% yoy: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/food-stamp-usage-up-162-nationally-over.html
Unemployment at 22+% and increasing: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
Also, fiduciary media exploding:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent change at seasonally adjusted annual rates M1 M2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thirteen weeks ending November 29, 2010
from thirteen weeks ending:
Aug. 30, 2010 (13 weeks previous) 15.2 6.6
May 31, 2010 (26 weeks previous) 9.9 5.5
Nov. 30, 2009 (52 weeks previous) 7.0 3.1
What does it mean when the GDP is officialy growing at 3.5% (http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-product-charts) and the money supply is growing at 15.2%?
Shh! Don't tell anyone I told you: Harry is really an A.I. program, mimmicing a real Human!
I don't see your arguments as being counter to many who feel that we are nearing a tipping point with the economy.
The viewpoints you espouse are a rational way to do business and make profits in todays market and economy. They do not confilct with the premise that the entire structure is growing more fundamentally unsound and headed for entropy as far as I have seen.
I have climbed a lot of mountains. Always there is a downhill section or two on the way up the mountain... Conversely there is always an uphill or 2 on the way down.
This is not the bronze (iron?) age; things happen faster now. Note the increasingly short lives of empires from Rome to England to USSR. To us. 70 years and done.
Interestingly, the Roman empire is not done. It still exists in the Catholic Church, albeit in a significantly different form. Not to mention that "Western" culture, society and governmental systems are all built off the Roman model.
What alphabet system are we using to communicate with right now? Languages evolve but the core is Latin.
Personally, I think we are heading into another "dark age", though that name was a serious misnomer, and our society is on the down swing. How do I know this? I don't, but we all use the evidence we see around us, put differing values on the various stimulus we intake and make the best future predictions we can.
Most likely, none of us will be right.
Aapl going to 430, say the wise ones at GS. Buy now, don't get priced out suckers.
Apple is bringing out a vibrating and hologramic iCunt for those who spend too much time on their iPads.
Bring on the junks, and yank my iWang, Apple fanbois.
LOL!! No iBread and iCircuses for you! :>D
"Some, like Gibbon, argued that Roman society’s moral decline was the root cause, while others such as Toynbee suggested that the mere concept of the empire was doomed from its inception due to institutional decay."
All governments are doomed: it is logically impossible to protect people's property rights, while simultaneously committing robberies against them. All parasites will grow until they sicken their own host. It is even worse in a democracy when the populace learns they can use the government as a bludgeon to steal others' wealth, while placating their consciences with plattitudes like "everyone has to pay their fair share".
I think "moral decline" is a subjective judgement, but there is no doubt that ceaseless inflation increases people's time preference, encouraging them to be spendthrifts, debtors, alcoholics, and drug abusers. And under an ever-encroaching government, it is nearly impossible to avoid committing "crimes". Eventually the label "criminal" loses all stigma.
++
Do not put too much credence in linear predictions. According to Neil Howe's work, we are on the precipice of a 4th generational turning into a crisis era. The book, written in 1997, pretty accurately predicts a financial crisis in the 2008 time frame and puts root causes at the risk taking behaviors of the various generations owing to what period in history they grew up.
Regardless if it was a good guess or not, he believes our society will start a more fundamental shift to deal with the debt crisis that has been building. He predicts society will begin to care less about conspicuous consumption and superflous bullshit. AAPL will be around making products but will command less attention from traders than defense contractors and food prices within 10 years.
OTOH, he predicts Boomers will enter retirement with less emphasis on comfortable living and more on spiritual virtue (they are aged hippies, after all).
While that doesn't sound bullish for a tech-gismo maker one that allows personal communications while full-filling the boomer need to be "one with the world" and other hippieish non-sense will sell well. AAPL will be a good bet for that.
Much of it all seems far fetched but you can put as much faith in those as you can reading H&S patterns from charts.
problem is not so much that AAPL dominates but that other manufacturers just plain suck. When was the last time you a mp3 player without circular thing in the middle (or in microsofts case sqare with circular edge ... sigh)? Only thing the execution in design and manufacturing by most manufactures are far far from those at AAPL.
Hmmm...he seems to conveniently ignore how many productive applications in medicine, the arts, design, etc are being enabled by these products.
Sounds like a Ludite to me.
I've been programming Computers in one form or another for over 30 years, so I'm no "ludite" (sic), but I have no use for a gadget that has no easy way to input data (like a keyboard, for example!).
Check out http://www.frontiernet.net/~jimbot/allsparkproject.htm
for what I actually use to access the Internet.
Something just dawned on me...this is fucking nonsense.
lol.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lG_OezlTZ1A
it's interesting the first tech company revolution was all about band width (Nortel) and B2B that's Business to Business in case anyone forgot. The whole thing blew up, and now the laggards, Apple mostly, has become the king of gadgets. We all had the wrong idea that technology was going to change the way we did things. It changed nothing, Jobs figured it out and he made a fortune.
btw, in North America, it's mostly legacy Nortel mobile switching systems that process iPhone calls !
Apple As A Symbol Of "Peak Empire" ? -- no, more like this depression's version of '30s Hollywood escapism.
But, more significantly, Apple also offers real utility, with astonishingly high quality.Cause let’s be honest about this – Apples logo is nothing more than the by the wicked witch poisened apple of dead from which Snow White just took one bite and end it in toxication. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92LLX8TqJPY
Some idiots use farting apps, some use Facebook, some use the text chats as compensation for their hearing impairment.
Its a productivty technology- you can be almost anywhere and get work email, surf information and its all part of the democratization of information.
Remember when Blackberrys were VP level devices only- pagers on steriods. For every farting app there is a kitco gold app, mish shedlock app and wonderful longtail apps like surf reports and things.
Its one of the better things the Americans have invented.
Whats the alternative? Android? Blackberries? WinMo? Do we go back to manufacturing cars in Detroit instead of technology?
Same as above: the productivity is such it is wiping out the debt issue.
Drowned by a debt issue and pimping a so called gain in productivity? Wonderful.
Some idiots use farting apps, some use Facebook, some use the text chats as compensation for their hearing impairment.
Its a productivty technology- you can be almost anywhere and get work email, surf information and its all part of the democratization of information.
Remember when Blackberrys were VP level devices only- pagers on steriods. For every farting app there is a kitco gold app, mish shedlock app and wonderful longtail apps like surf reports and things.
Its one of the better things the Americans have invented.
Whats the alternative? Android? Blackberries? WinMo? Do we go back to manufacturing cars in Detroit instead of technology?
" peak empire " or the "empire" is yet to be born?
empire is/could be a function... finance a tangent.
gmo bread and i circus. maximum plasticity ahead running
into "solid ground".
" i need the white one." cartoon bear with big head.
?
i have this idea, nascent theory, concerning the organic
anatomical modification of the human brain to be
brought about by the interaction of the human hand and brain
with technology. that is symbolic expression, texting etc., via
the use of the formerly opposable thumb and how the part
of the brain that formerly was associated with motly "grasping"
will in the future be used / associated with / symbolic expression.
and this relates to the evolution of the human mind and "collective"
expression and norm . a paradigm alteration along the animal -
human axis? some suggest lizard - mammalian ...
but of course there are ironies and obstacles going forward.
all beyond us. all be on d/us . soso.
link..
Gary Null All Tuesday December 14 12:00pm 1 hour Unknownhttp://archive.wbai.org/
but ...please hear this man speak on beauty and art.
http://www.progressiveradionetwork.com/the-gary-null-show-wnye/
The Gary Null Show - 12/14/10 December 14, 2010Powered by Podbean.com
Dr Piero Ferrucci is a psychologist & philosopher, one of Europe’s leading intellectuals in spiritual psychology. He was a student of and collaborator with the humanistic psychology pioneer Roberto Assagioli, founder of psychosynthesis. Similar to Jungian psychology, psychosynthesis considers the whole person, incorporating a strong spiritual dimension that honors mystical experience as a trigger for curing psychological disorders. “Beauty and the Soul: The Power of Everyday Beauty to Heal Our Lives"