This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Sitting On The Edge Of Pain
From Nic Lenoir of ICAP
Most asset classes are at key junctures this morning. S&P futures sit on a H&S neckline, Gold is fairly close to its neckline as well, and both are also on the 50-dma support. Bunds have also tested the major trend support. EURUSD in the meantime has not really made any formalities and dived through the 200-dma. Trouble could be just around the corner as the world is not digesting the details of the Irish bailout as the forces in power expected.
In yet another roll-over after a lot of kicking and screaming, Germany gave up its desires to have bond and stock holders share a lot of the cost of Ireland's bailout. This further step into monetization oblivion should be good news for Gold or equities in theory since it is another testament to the dedication of politicians to keep asset prices up at the cost of the measurement unit (the currency they are denominated in). But so far is not so good with credit spreads wider on the day. That EURUSD is taking a dive is no surprise, fundamentally the details released weaken the EUR currency, but sadly correlations also imply that a stronger USD weighs on precious metals or equities. As long as the supports discussed above (1,172/1,170 in S&P future and 1,347 first then 1,327 for gold) hold I believe what we are witnessing is a decorrelation of EURUSD and other asset classes as the market is torn between the fear of a more expensive USD and the positive effect of monetizaton on asset prices.
Thankfully if in terms of price actions there is a bit of a conflict going on, in terms of fundamentals there is no ambiguity here: the details of this bail-out farce are horrendous. I simply cannot believe the world is sitting and watching these criminals borrow against assets of their already under-funded pension system to finance current deficits. Our politicians and central bankers can laugh at Japan all they want, at least they had the courage to haircut retirement payments. It is a disgrace and the final insult proving that they will stop at no cost to make sure this crisis ends up in a generalized worldwide civil war. I apologize if my words are dramatic, but there is no other way to put it. I hope the Turkey was great with all the extra gravy, and I am glad our media is celebrating yet another amazing black Friday shopping spree, whether it is true or not doesn't even matter, make sure you buy the S&P when if it crosses 1,204/1,212 they plan to send it to the moon and that is the last free ride you will enjoy for a very very very long time.
Good luck trading,
Nic
»
- 9347 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Meh... probably more bailouts - stick with gold.
OT: apparently Obama going to announce a 2 year pay freeze for govt employees, thus 'saving' $2bn in 2011. About as much use as a chocolate teapot...
$2bn, Woohoo! We are saved! When times get tough, Obama comes through with a cut to save .14% of the annual deficit.
The rest of it is cutting healthcare for military and seniors for Trillions going to bankers
Maybe we have seen multiple market peaks
And, at a time when wages for real people are falling, he locks in salaries for the parasites at current (record high) levels. He's trying to save something, but I don't think it's money.
Bounced off that support line like a super ball. Heading solidly higher now. We've tested that SPX support four times recently and each one is met with strong buying. I believe that was the final test to solidify that support and move higher.
Too funny by a country mile. You should do the play by play for the world cup.
CD... didn't you hear?.. Retail up 6% from last year.. it seams that people making $9/hr selling products made in South America and China are going to save our economy.. A real sign of strenth.. Mean the people making machines and producting real goods are going to start hiring.. Get with the program..
Momma always said I was the mental runt of the litter. But the best looking. :>)
And we KNOW that's what counts these days. I'm hoping to see you on the next Dancing with the Stars..
Who needs brains.. We have much more important things going on...
in other words...once that support fails (on the next test), the selling pressure will be immense.
There you are. Make sure you stick around all day for Moonshot Monday, Harry. We hate when you disappear if things don't go your way.
Sitting in airport waiting for flight. I won't be around much this week. We have a huge consumer event in Minneapolis. This is our biggest week for retail. I can give you a first hand report as to how strong the consumer is. So far, this has been our best November in company history.
(Financial) Porn is always a booming business Harry.
Really I thought Harry was a dildo salesman.
As housing porn is in Canada
Well here are a couple of questions for you. Is your business representative of the over all business trends, and are you just on the receiving end of an inventory build?
If you are attending the Medical Design and Manufacturing trade show, your 'best November in company history' is largely due to the record number of antidepressants being prescribed to the 22% unemployed and booming sales of various devices and appliances used to rehabilitate soldiers being blown apart in Iraq and Afghanistan.
My family has a nearly 60 year old Furniture and Appliance story in NJ. As far as retail for appliances and furniture, November is a big meh. Un-noticable increase from the prior year.
captcha: times (minus ten) equals -170
"..and each one is met with strong buying..."
Of course. Now who could be doing that? And with what money? Isn't there some kind of POMO thing happening today?
If you believe technicals are of any value in today's equity market with interventions coming thick and fast from all directions, you may be in for a harsh re-education soon.
'Each time met with strong buying'...yea by Bernanke. Its sure not the 'resilient consumer' who is getting trampled to death to charge some crap at Target.
Your bullish stance has probably made you a bucket load of cash recently. Don't let your success blinker you to what's around the corner.
Investment strategies have shelf lives....
the only thing "getting higher" is you
on Sun, 11/21/2010 - 21:04
#745287
SPX will end the week at new yearly high. Bailout equals rising equities. High beta movers will be on fire tomorrow.
touche'
He meant the week after the week after next. It's a sliding scale.
I have begun to understand that Harry is a sociopath, junior varsity of course. He's hoping to move on up to the Ponzi apartment in the sky when the next posistion opens up. So he's just practicing with us.
Harry...I know we all respect your comments and perspective about the market.
I just challenge where your confidence will be when the Fed is forced to quit supporting the markets...until then...
I hope you lose everything.
Happy Trading PIIG
This is a trading range between 1175-1200. We have seen the bottom hold 4 times, we have seen the top hold 4 times. There is no obvious direction here. Buy at 1175, sell at 1200.
Best and smartest comment in this thread.
yup......that's one HELLUVA rally, that 1175 to 1200. You go, Dog!
Maybe my charts are different
They show a range this year bounded by 1010.91 and 1227.08
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?spx
Actually bottom range was 1173-1174.... and we tested it twice, once today, once on the 16th, and your right about 1200 being tested 4 times now, remember the markets move in the path of least resistence.
"This is a trading range between 1175-1200. We have seen the bottom hold 4 times, we have seen the top hold 4 times. There is no obvious direction here. Buy at 1175, sell at 1200."
Maybe... But it won't last. Look at the same trading range that occurred from 4/16 - 5/4... There's a major struggle going on and I see the bulls throwing everything they have to keep this balloon floating.
'Trading range'...you mean its not just the FED total intervention to support 28 straight weeks of market outflows and hardship 401K selling?
...and we are nearing support yet again. Not very decisive support there. The support only holds from moentization and nothing more. If this breaks it's off to 1132 by end of next week (IMO).
OT: Check out the Irish bailout poll results at irishtimes.com
http://www.irishtimes.com/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=yesnopoll&pollid=9631
71% against, lol, IRA cells activated all over the place.
Indeed, I wonder how many bankers getting "Mountbatten'd" it will take before they re-think?
good find Sancho. this is very important for the markets. when people finally wake up, that's when the banker bailouts will be stopped. it may be too late for Ireland, but hopefully the people of Spain will take notice and promptly reject a bailout before it can be forced on them.
then risk will return en masse, as it rightfully should.
So, US bank stocks are up because it's "exchange student" associates have temporarily been rescued??? Ugh!!!
Harry, Bubba! Sorry man but you have as much clue as ANY "analyst" on WS! Your propaganda BS is cheaper than that of former East Block Countries! Laughable!
So do the Irish pension funds need to sell their holdings now? Curiouser and curiouser as we pass further through the looking glass.
Sorry Granny, the sheikhs are taking your dough. La la la la la la.....
Oh Harry,you certainly know how to wind them up don't you?
Always a great read Nic -
Nic is back. Time to fade him and go long "risk" 4x.
Virtually every hedge fund on the planet is now throwing in the towel on the:
- Crashing dollar trade
- Peak oil trade
- Cost-push induced inflation trade
- V-shaped recovery trade
- Economic rebound trade
And they are selling everything in digust, and piling into NFLX.
Oil in full upward collapse mode approaching 85. Get out your bus pas, robo. Or, when will robotroll interview the CEO of ExxonMobil?
At some point people will realize, yet again, that high oil prices will not fuel the elusive broad recovery.
[though this time I think geopolitics are priced in, not just speculative pushes]
People don't realize, even though I've been posting this since I've been at ZH, that my biggest holdings are PMs. Been in them since 2003. My only two stocks I hold right now are nAAPL and PCLN. I'm doing well in both. If they fall back another 1% from here, I'm out. Otherwise, I don't see any reason to sell these or my PMs.
why Harry...... you are so misunderstood. Here we all thought you was a serious trader, what with your braniac analyses of what "the market" is gonna do
How do you hedge your overnight exposure, if you do?
His 'PMs'
(you can't really call an investment in 2 heavyweight ndx stocks a portfolio..)
Harry ? When did you buy Appl again 3.0 ?
Down 1 percent and out, showing real confidence in your biggest holdings Harry.
Everyone, say goodbye to Harry, he is about to disappear, again, for a few months..
Hell Harry, that ETrade baby does way more trading than you!
Harry, obviously your money isn't where your mouth is. If so you're so convinced of such great economic data in recent weeks one would expect you would be buying equities with both fists? Also being long gold would be a betrayal to an economy that shows robust recovery?
duplicate post
Sitting in airport waiting for flight. I won't be around much this week. We have a huge consumer event in Minneapolis. This is our biggest week for retail. I can give you a first hand report as to how strong the consumer is. So far, this has been our best November in company history.
Given your comment above, why don't you own a basket of retail stocks? Certainly, the consumer is shopping at more than AAPL and PCLN based on your comment.
There would seem to be a significant disconnect between your disclosed portfolio holdings and your statements about the economic outlook. I always ignore what people say and watch what people (allegedly) do.
NOPE NOOOO Bubble here!
That chart is one of the more ridiculous things I've ever seen.
these really appear to be the blow off tops we should expect in names like NFLX, CRM, CMG, and maybe LULU, CSTR, PCLN.
look at the 4 year charts. vertical.
Hey Robo, solars are having a stellar day - perhaps you can post LDK and SOL.....lol
Last few days price action looks like a climax run, coupled with prices moving higher on decreasing volume. Looks like fewer people are piling in as the price goes higher. Could be wrong, but me thinks that people buying here are not going to be to happy in a few weeks.
Play the crappy game right now, financials up. Added to Freeport and Mosaic today.
"make sure you buy the S&P when if it crosses 1,204/1,212 they plan to send it to the moon and that is the last free ride you will enjoy for a very very very long time."
I'll go along with this. I'd expect the $34B in POMO between tomorrow and Friday to provide the gunpowder for this upside explosion.
LOL, how many times has it crossed this level already? Remember to count both up and down.
No wonder retail investing is dead. What a joke.
What happens when there is too much shit for the fan?
The fan falls down. And blows smoke up your ass.
Nic,
I see that you counted an ABC zigzag from recent market lows, even though the market has since surpassed the pre "Flash Crash" high, although by a fairly slim margin (a count technically not allowed by Elliottician purists). I guess this is why you are giving lattitude to the 1204-1222 level for an alternate count?
Thanks for the great analysis...
@Turd
any comments/crystal ball calls on Gold/Silver these days? Would love to know your thinking..
thx!
Gub
RELAX... there will be no real "pain" before the dec expiry. Those levels here are perfect. Who knows how many dec10-dec11 calenders have been done at the start of September to short the front and go long the vol for the year that will stay in our memories as the great suppression. Let them first take all the theta before offloading all the longs and then pushing further to take the full gamma (many times) in the next months before expire the dec11 puts long long in the money. Fasten your seat belts and enjoy x-mas, as after that we have to prepare for landing...
holy cow! can ya say that in English? lucky I don't have to trade back-and-forth to make money - yikes! I think I got the part about rally to year-end and January crash - pretty much what I'm betting on
Hey spaceman or shall I call you cosmicboy, can you pls ask the stars what would be the next move in equities... no no ask for the bund. Yes this is what I would like to know!!
It's all good. We all know how to
trade the fraud:)
I trade it so well, I sometimes forget
it's a fraud:)
We are doomed regardless. Obanana will talk us to death with his BS, Palin and the teabaggers will wage war with every known and unknown civilization on earth. Is it possible to short this planet and go long Jupiter?
Looks like gold buying pressure in EU is starting to spill over, and this is the why "coordinated and sequential currency devaluation" is doomed to fail. There's only so much physical, and the sequential devaluations merely result in repeated buying episodes.
http://www.goldprice.org/gold-price-euros.html
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
DOW is stuck at 10975 for the last hour. That seems strange.
Well now that so many have posted on the bearish chart formations forming on the S $ P, expect it not to work. The Fed's trading desk and every prop trading desk at all the big banks and hedge funds spend more time scouring blogs for sentiment than looking at charts. They know the only way to get this market to go up is force people to cover their shorts. Works every time.