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SLV Is Now "Hard To Borrow" At Goldman

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And now for the latest news in the silver meltup: SLV just moved to Hard To Borrow status at Goldman Sachs. This pertains to institutionals who are Goldman Prime Broker clients. Soon coming to every prime broker near you. Comex margin hike imminent now that it is impossible to short the largest silver ETF in the world.

 

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Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:13 | 1189428 Math Man
Math Man's picture

With ordrinary stocks, longs have the option to tell their counterparty to not make the share lendable, or repoable. If everyone does this there is no way to borrow shares from brokers to those who wish to short. In ETFs it is a little more complex, although superficially a general pull of borrow could lead to same result.

This is true, but there are some caveats - if you call your PB and tell him not to lend you shares, he will oblige.  The problem is, that they won't let you do it too many times or for too many securities without changing your rates - the PBs count on the revenue from stock lending when determining their rates. 

Another thing that can lead to a tight borrow are fast markets with a lot of turnover  -- in a fast market, the PB won't know how many shares are held by his customers and are available for lending at any time - and will jack up his rate accordingly - placing the security on the hard to borrow list because the rebate is non-standard.   A high precentage of retail holdings will do the same thing - the PBs prefer to lend out institutional positions, and avoid using 'broker' stock -- and when they do, they charge a higher rate. 

My guess is that with the crazy price action here, you have both a fast market, and selling by large institutional holders to stupid retail money... both of which make it very hard to lend stock at a normal rate.

Longs shouldn't get too excited here.  It really doesn't mean anything...  if anything, turnover is increasing and institutional holders are getting out.  That is generally a bad sign - SLV is all held by fast money now, and when they want out, look out below.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:22 | 1189476 akak
akak's picture

MothMan, got a ghostwriter now, do ya?

This post was so radically different in style and tone from all your other typically disjointed, poorly written, semi-autistic comments in this forum that I do not for one second believe that "you" actually wrote this.

Will the REAL MothMan please step up?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:34 | 1189548 tmosley
tmosley's picture

New hand in the sock puppet.  He got called out for being an idiot, so they replaced him with someone who at least SOUNDS like he knows what he's talking about.

Baffle them with bullshit.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:40 | 1189583 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Nope...  still here.  I actually do know what the fuck I'm talking about... even though idiots like yourselves don't believe me.    Silver is a big time bubble - and this 'hard to borrow' non-sense just proves it more. 

You guys all love to talk about how wrong I've been, when all I've been doing is buying puts for a few months and watching my theta decay... throwing away a little premium here and there, waiting for the big kill.  This risk/reward in the silver trade is way out of whack.   Being long right now is a fools trade, just as it has been since 30.  

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:52 | 1189626 akak
akak's picture

.... only $5 to dig it from the ground .....

.... only $5 to dig it from the ground .....

.... only $5 to dig it from the ground .....

.....only $5 to dig it from the ground .....

.... only $5 to dig it from the ground .....

.... only $5 to dig it from the ground .....

.....only $5 to dig it from the ground .....

.....must ..... eat ..... silverholders' ...... brains .......

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 16:59 | 1189929 tmosley
tmosley's picture

lol, a loser, who is doing nothing but lose money is calling winners fools?

Reality is a FOOL, man.  

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:42 | 1190782 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Thanks for helping with innacurate wrong information. Let me return the favor.

Don't bother changing the oil on your turbocharged car. It's just a scam and the old oil works just as good and will never eat you turbine bearings.

I know alot of people say water and electricity don't mix. But if you want a nice relaxing bath. Just take the heating element off your stove and hook it up directly to the wall mount in your bathtub.

Delete your windows\system32 directory. It just wastes disk space.

Use a bulk tape eraser or degausian device on your hard drives. It kills just the viruses without affecting the real good data.

Thanks for letting me help.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:10 | 1190862 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Ever heard of click and sell, then click and buy? 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:36 | 1188609 Herne the Hunter
Herne the Hunter's picture

JPM is getting it... down 1.2%

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:42 | 1188645 cossack55
cossack55's picture

A dream fulfilled:

1 oz AG = $58.79

1 share JPM = $15.23

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:45 | 1188673 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Anyone else think this is Goldman's polite way of telling JPM you're on your own buddy.  The squid always gets out first.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:36 | 1188610 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Finding silver prices hard to predict. Just know this. The value of silver is above that of JP Morgan stock.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:37 | 1188617 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Breath . . getting . . heavy . . . walls . . . creeping . . . in

must . . . short . . . SLV . . .

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:40 | 1188637 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Forget silver.....

Snowmobiles, bitchez!!!   LOL.....

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:42 | 1188650 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I hope they are either hybrid or electric.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:21 | 1188888 velobabe
velobabe's picture

two strokes, stinky fuel smell, ick†

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:51 | 1189328 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

WTF are you LOLing about Robodork? Hey hows that silver short working now that its back well over $45 and gold regained 1500? You are the worst trader in america.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:01 | 1189380 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

Just remember SheepDog-One:

No take backs Robo!

http://youtu.be/38bEi8wnXJA

This never loses its charm!  Anyone keeping count on how many times this video has been equated to Robo?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:44 | 1188664 redpill
redpill's picture

Rearview mirror charts aren't an accomplishment.

Why don't you tell the class what is going to go up TOMORROW for once, and try to gain some credibility?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:37 | 1189563 tmosley
tmosley's picture

He keeps trying, but he's always wrong.

"Time to short silver"?

lol

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:46 | 1188677 Herne the Hunter
Herne the Hunter's picture

Global cooling bitchezzzzz

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:05 | 1188812 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Yesterday it was 32 degree Celsius in Belgium. The normal for this time a year is 9 degrees Celsius.

Cook it baby!

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:16 | 1188845 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Spring (life) always arrives early in places with no POS gubmint.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:48 | 1188690 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

Looks so cool in pictures but most of those machines are 2-stroke pigs. If the wind isn't blowing, you're gagging in 30 minutes.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:48 | 1188700 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

Why are you laughing out loud? That is just fucking dumb.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 21:37 | 1190771 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

It's the crazy signal. It's getting to them.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6hL6fkJ1_k

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:00 | 1188756 duo
duo's picture

do some research.  The Victory cruiser motorcycles are soundly beating HD in reviews, taking market share, and are built in a weak union state.   Victory's are built by Polaris and are 50 years-newer designs than HD.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:06 | 1188804 The Axe
The Axe's picture

No charts on brokers or bank stocks as they rollover in a up 200 market?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:41 | 1188659 mrdenis
mrdenis's picture

If anyone has SLV in a cash acct to stop your broker from lending it out put a extremely high offer out GTC ....it freezes you shares  

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:52 | 1188719 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Umm . . . I could be wrong but -- even as small as the silver market is -- I don't think this will matter.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:52 | 1188720 zeek
zeek's picture

...love that line of thinking...!   :)

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:51 | 1189330 Big Ben
Big Ben's picture

Thanks very much! I don't own SLV, but if I did I certainly wouldn't want my broker lending out my shares for someone to short them. Allowing brokers to lend your shares for shorting seems kind of like shooting yourself in the foot.

When the shares are shorted, they are sold to someone else and I assume that they could be shorted again and again. So if I am long a stock, it seems crazy to lend the shares to be shorted.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:46 | 1188663 The Count
The Count's picture

Hmmm. PM is good. Food is good. Guns & ammo, very good. Buy all you can now bitchez and learn how to use them because when the SHTF you'll be paying through the nose for anything that shoots. I have various licenses and am a pistol instructor. Don't think you can just buy any gun and any ammo and think it will work. Guns are finicky things. Not like buying a toaster and it does what you expect. 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:55 | 1188740 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Who in their right mind would buy a firearm that doesn't feed everything you give it for self-defense? Only an idiot would keep such a firearm for self-defense. Especially if you are stocking up on ammo as well.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:02 | 1188776 The Count
The Count's picture

Most people are just as clueless about guns as they are about the markets ;-(

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:18 | 1188858 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I know I don't know shit about toasters.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:55 | 1188742 zeek
zeek's picture

strongly recommend IDPA shooting...  it is surprising how much you fumble around under a timer in "real world" scenarios!

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:01 | 1188767 The Count
The Count's picture

+1. I action shoot since about a year. Amazing how many times either I or the gun or the ammo screws up. Now I usually wind up in the middle of the score roster. Not easy....

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:55 | 1189648 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I do 3 gun competition myself.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:47 | 1188688 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Scotia McLeod says I can short as much SLV as I want,what gives?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:49 | 1188701 SumSUN
SumSUN's picture

I think it is possible that the tog dogs at JPM have been in lala land for years and are in complete denial of what is happening all around them.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:03 | 1188796 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Don't think so.  Prepare for battle.  Top dogs have Bernanks bedroom bathroom line.  This is a long way from over, and before it is, that line will be ringing off the hook.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 16:28 | 1189822 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Hah and the Bernank is spending a lot of time answering that phone in the fiat papered walls of the shitter!

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:52 | 1188703 surfersd
surfersd's picture

Traderjoe. I took delivery three time off the comex. Once for gold twice for silver. Recent took delivery for silver, off the Feb contract, remember all contract months trade you don't have to get involved in the active months. Easy as pie, broker transfered moneys it held. Contacted HSBC warehouse arranged for delivery. Called Brinks they picked it up and put it in their vault. Would bring to my house but 10000 oz of silver weighs 940 lbs.

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:57 | 1188753 cossack55
cossack55's picture

If TSHTF in a rapid fashion, you may not be able to get to it. Dig a bigger hole.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:02 | 1188787 zeek
zeek's picture

you just made it to the top of my 'hero for today' list!  :)

not especially meaningful, to be sure, but still...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:34 | 1189542 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

How much does your car weigh? Clean out the garage, pack in the silver and throw a tarp over it. I suggest stacking it in a volkswagen beetle shape to avoid suspicion. Buy extra homeowner's insurance.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:42 | 1189589 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Look into used bank vaults.  I had a chance to pick up three small vaults (dunno if they were from a bank or not) off of Craigslist for three hundred bucks.  They were the size of three drawer filing cabinets and were designed to be embedded in cement.  Very tough.  Dunno what the inside dimensions were.  Probably wouldn't have had any trouble storing that much silver.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 16:31 | 1189833 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Take a pick axe to some cement, fit some plywood flush to the hole, cement over.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 23:14 | 1191080 CHARLIE.DONT.SERF
CHARLIE.DONT.SERF's picture

100oz bars in a bank bag tossed carelessly behind a couch. (1) belgian malinois that takes no shit. Come and get it.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:52 | 1188709 BrobamaReds
BrobamaReds's picture

toga! toga! toga! toga!

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:53 | 1188722 Fredd00
Fredd00's picture

It's gonna be huge Easter BTFD party courtesy of Blythe and their minions. Waiting to the invitation 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:53 | 1188726 The Axe
The Axe's picture

you can't borrow it at E-Trade or Scottrade. either.... However you write future or option contracts. creating a short positon.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:21 | 1188878 vas deferens
vas deferens's picture

Silver will drop first from all the illegal front running then they will announce the margin hike on silver.  

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:54 | 1188733 KidDynamite
KidDynamite's picture

SLV is easily borrowable for retail clients at Interactive Brokers - their SLV stock loan inventory has actually increased throughout the day today. -2 1/4% rebate

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:39 | 1188957 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Ergo the word: "institutionals"

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 16:09 | 1189733 KidDynamite
KidDynamite's picture

since when do retail clients ever have better access to borrow than "institutionals?"

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:56 | 1188748 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Oh boy is this GREAT!

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 12:59 | 1188771 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

SLA (Silver Liberation Army) is takin scalps! http://silverliberationarmy.com/

AND I WANT MY SCALPS! http://youtu.be/R3dtuzdd9ek

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:04 | 1188783 TIMMAYYY
TIMMAYYY's picture

watch monster burn...live...i havent felt this good since that guy pwned george bush with a shoe...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:04 | 1188785 aVian
aVian's picture

did we just get a margin hike?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:07 | 1188806 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

O my the antics of this group is hilarious.

 

http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:04 | 1188807 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Chris: Margin requirements on silver useless http://youtu.be/leOTNjL6Hkw

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:05 | 1188809 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Could JP Morgan be in truly deep trouble?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:04 | 1189079 Steaming_Wookie_Doo
Steaming_Wookie_Doo's picture

Yeah, could be the "kiss of death" from Goldman. The Squid wins, bitchez!

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:07 | 1189421 Catherine007
Catherine007's picture

well if JPM goes, the whole banking system goes. You better have some food storage :)

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:07 | 1188811 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

And Silver attack starts just after lunch.  I mean, if they did it the same time everday, we'd catch on.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:10 | 1188818 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Embry - JP Morgan Massive Short Position Causing Silver Spike

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/4/20_Em...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:11 | 1188823 magnetic_silver...
magnetic_silver_ideas's picture

Silver is the new Credit Default Swap (insurance policy) for the USD.

Also: Silver is going parabolic because physical cannot be sourced anymore. ScotiaBank in Ottawa and Toronto CANADA are OUT OF SILVER.

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:09 | 1188826 Soul Train
Soul Train's picture

I can't wait until we the sheople start using silver for our currency between our private transactions.

Finally, those silver quarters, dimes and half dollars will come back out of circulation.

:)

Some day soon I hope. Screw Washington DC beltway bandits and the whole Fed banksters.

Next train, back to pre-1860?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:15 | 1188839 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

>> I can't wait until we the sheople start using silver for our currency between our private transactions.

Already happening between smart dealers and customers.   

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:36 | 1188926 zeek
zeek's picture

not to be a christian apocalypse nut, but see how this scenario rings out:

1) dollar tanks

2) flat tax takes hold

3) 'bartering' deemed tax evasion

4) transactions required to be documented electronically

5) transactions require 'debt-card'

6) 'debit-card' available as impregnated 'mark'

7) 'mark' mandated for 'personal security'

stir in a little global meltdown resulting in a new global currency, and you can read revelations for the rest...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:47 | 1189007 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

Exactly, a cashless society just makes sense for the governments and banks.  Look at a recent article "Banks declare war on Cash in Italy."  Cashless helps governments collect taxes, eliminates underground/black market economies and helps banks earn more fees on every transaction.  Win Win.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:50 | 1189634 werealldoomed
werealldoomed's picture

Order out of chaos.

We are merely pawns in their game. I am honestly impressed at their level of genius.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:16 | 1188846 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Under $45.

JPM lives another day.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 16:03 | 1189693 akak
akak's picture

JPM lives another day.

Yes, but the countdown to its implosion is already underway.

PS: I'm always amused by your childlike focus on the short-term rather than the long-term

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:16 | 1188850 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

woooshhh

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:15 | 1188856 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

$43

Time to short it?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:40 | 1188975 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You do that, faggot.  I would suggest you use all the leverage you can get.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:47 | 1189001 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Hey T and robo.

It's 4/20

Chill.....you both need a break.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:48 | 1189017 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Drugs are bad, mmmkay?

I get the feeling that Robo has been partaking heavily ever since he was fired for incompetence, and forced to declare bankruptcy 8 times in five years, again due to his own trading incompetence.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:13 | 1189338 akak
akak's picture

" .....again due to his own trading incompetence."

It's pronounced "tranny incontinence".

Hence all the gratuitous pics of svelte, busty ladies --- which (s)he keeps taking to his/her plastic surgeon and whining "I want to look like this!"  But having started out his/her procedure as 300 lb. Roger, (s)he gets the Barbara Mikulski package instead:

http://cbf.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/11/14/barbara_mikulski.gif

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 19:12 | 1190389 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

Hey careful their Kobe! :p

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:52 | 1189334 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

RoboDouche yea short it, oops back over $45 now retard.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:18 | 1188859 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Hilarious.

Now they are taking everyone to the cleaners.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:29 | 1188911 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

This aint the real thing (but it sure is fun.  Volatility!!)  They are testing to see how much they can move it and how long it stays.  No secret. Dip buying until end of week then re-assess.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:31 | 1188932 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture
Evil Genius Loves Blythe Masters for Cheap Silver Prices http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ud0pdhoisxc
Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:58 | 1189662 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Gee are they really RoboDork? Doesnt look that way to me.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:19 | 1188867 tallen
tallen's picture

BTFD!

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:58 | 1189377 Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

i did  :)

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:26 | 1188868 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Bear Raid in progress.

http://www.kitcosilver.com/charts/24hoursspot.html 

.75 cent drop in 15 minutes?   NOT magnificent bastards!

 

Looks like it bounced right off a 44.50 support line.   :-)

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:22 | 1188884 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Don't let the bubble end now, I need one last run to $50 before I'm fully loaded on puts!

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:04 | 1189401 akak
akak's picture

You're getting more and more obvious all the time, troll.

Give it up already.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:21 | 1189489 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Obvious about what?  That I think silver is going to flush?  What clued you in?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:58 | 1189536 akak
akak's picture

Obvious about what?

Your attempts to scare newbies away from silver, and long-term holders out of silver, by incessantly poormouthing it and by your rabid fearmongering about a possible but in any event evanescent dip in the price of silver --- THAT is what is obvious about you, troll.

Also, your transparently disingenuous insistence that what we are currently witnessing with the metals is just another typical bull/bear market cycle, and not in fact the slow death of the monetary status-quo.  Bankster shills just LOVE to defend the fiat status-quo!

But please, tell us all again how you bought all your gold and silver at the very bottom of the market back in 2001 --- that fairy tale is one of my favorites!

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 16:10 | 1189737 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Is it not possible for a bull/bear cycle to culminate in the end of a financial hegemony?

I would argue that we agree on the end-game, we just disagree on the path.

 

And actually, I bought my first gold coins in June of 2000 and my first silver bar in 2001.  But then I'm sure it would disturb you to know my timing really is that good.

Let's hope for a skyrocketing silver tomorrow to finally announce an end to this run.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 17:01 | 1189945 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You are a liar.

Go away.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 17:12 | 1190000 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

And people should be scared, this makes me think of the hindenberg.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 17:43 | 1190098 akak
akak's picture

Yes, people should be scared of disingenuous, bankster-shilling, fearmongering, blatantly lying, PM-bashing trolls.

And I also agree that your credibility here has taken a Hindenberg --- spectacularly up in flames.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:25 | 1188901 velobabe
velobabe's picture

fun while it lasted, 4/20 tyler. i think, i might partake early.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:43 | 1188982 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I'm in.

Anybody else celebrating?
I know jw in fl has been open about it.
Sheepdog probably never stops.

Tyler?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:39 | 1188948 Hearst
Hearst's picture

So what's this lunch time smash down due to?  Tyler if I see a headline about Silver margin increases I will refer to you as Oracle Durden because that's some call!  

 

So margin hike?  Volume spike of naked short selling?  Healthy selling?  Fat fingers or just painting the tape lower before the close so these cocksuckers don't look like utter failures??

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:37 | 1188956 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Wow, that was concerted and . . . weak!   If they can't take this (meaning a whole series of silver plays that remain firmly up) down below yesterday's close, next couple of days could be huge.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:37 | 1188960 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Margin hike is coming tomorrow.  I am 100% sure of it.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:52 | 1188999 bingaling
bingaling's picture

I read this and then I think how there is only physically 4 ounces of silver for each person in the world.  4 TROY OUNCES per person ! If and when all fiat goes to shit (it seems the perceived value of fiat is dropping at a faster pace now) and this trend accelerates and grows where every man woman and child is looking for a few grams of silver to gain control of hyperinflationary pressures (fiat destruction) that is when silver will be in a bubble . The only thing is though,  it won't be a bubble it will then be CURRENCY and a trusted one . So (this is the scary part) as a central bank do you risk all of your power (the creation of debt from nothing) where everyone loses faith in the currency or do you pull the plug and take the deflationary spiral down where you might not lose it ?

I am actually surprised this has gone this far without China /the EU or the US pulling the plug on their respective currencies ( the EU not so much due to the fundamental weaknesses of their currency ) .

Once silver and gold are seen as necessary to survival in this environment the WHOOSH you will hear from fiat being placed into the PM"S is going to be deafening ....I don't think we are a long way off as the DXY demonstrates it isn't a safe haven from inflationary pressures and the gains in commodities show the weakness in every currency traded out there . From here to June be prepared to hear the WHOOSH ....AS the realisation of the above (4 ounces per person ) comes into play and physical delivery becomes standard practice .

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:47 | 1189012 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Not so sure.  Margin hike at this point would be a huge TELL.  Any reversals would be short and could send this parabolic faster.

Bad guys might have to face that this market is about to get much bigger.  Their cash cow is coming undone and they need to get out.  Their best option is to stage these mini-raids and try to get out in orderly fashion.

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:11 | 1189122 Geoff-UK
Geoff-UK's picture

Source?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:19 | 1189170 Darth Silver
Darth Silver's picture

tyler,
i have read about various tipping point spot figures that would trigger a run on JP Morgue. i.e. Max Keiser thinks $47 spot, Bob Chapman thinks around $50 spot.

where do you think the spot would need be before the blow up hits the mainstream?

thanks

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:46 | 1189316 bingaling
bingaling's picture

It doesn't matter - The price will get to even above those levels with or without some evil bastards daughter on the other side . ASIA ME etc are hurting from serious inflation the majority of the worlds population is there . They are "old school savers" who have no problem going from paper to PM's . The silver from the west cant get there fast enough to supply the demand . The truth is the demand has just begun . For the first time in months bloomberg runs gold to new high's on dollar weakness . Seriously this is just starting to go mainstream if at all.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:26 | 1189205 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

GS was always a good source of short shares for commodity ETFs.  If they have SLV on their "hard to borrow" list, then there is a very large vested interest in the ETF sinking, probably taken up in the last two or three trading sessions.  These large shorts are probably under water by a few percent, and, with no option for averaging, will play increasingly desperate games.  Forget about the JPM short myth, the recent short additions are what are going to kill the silver momo.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:26 | 1189221 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

I think you are asking Slaughterer?  I don't think they're going to raise it yet again.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:53 | 1189355 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Slaughterer,

I think any 'new shorts' wouldn't be in the context of a one way bet down for price of silver.  In this environment, they would have to be hedges that can be unwound as the volatility is just too potentially big.  I think now that the 'cat is out of the bag' on silver, the big guys want to control it as much as possible as they unwind bad positions.  I don't think they are looking to make back losing bets on short positions.

Its really no secret that these guys have been singed, but they don't want to burn down the house (unless they already have and we don't know it yet.)  I think their is a chance COMEX hikes margin, but that would be just to get through this delivery period and it could really  send things off to the races in a week or two.

 

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:19 | 1189473 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Re-discovery,

the most probable reason we do not see as many monkey raids in the 40s as we did in the 30s is because of a damage control hedge strategy from HSBC and JPM.  

Please factor in the upcoming FOCM press conference next week as the maximum in volatility for all PM strategies, as this trade only really took off in the QE environment.  (Granted, 10 year bull market in gold...) FOCM volatility and confusion will be a major benefit to all institutional hedges next week.

COMEX / CME / GS / JPM / HSBC have a concerted strategy to temporarily kill the PM bull market for about 3 - 6 months to unwind positions two of the PDs have obviously suffered from over the last half year.   Sorry, but they have larger capital bases than the army of ZH, and they will win... for the time being.  Long term, PM is golden. 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:56 | 1189652 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Agreed on the capital base here.  The game for the next several months is judging how the banks unwind.  I have advocated on here for leaching this process.  But I don't see a reversal and suppression.  That just ain't working. 

I don't think any of the large banks cared much about the price appreciation in gold and silver since 2000 ungil about a year ago.  In fact, they likely made some money.  When the ETFs and bigger boys started wading into the pool however, the game started to change.  Now, fighting the long term bull gets much more costly as each manipulation just became 20, 30 and even 40% more expensive. 

Smarter folks than post here are reading the unwind tea leaves and the dips (havent been any for several sessions) are becoming less and less pronounced.  I think even the banks would concede that they have lost in this arena, they are just looking for a graceful exit.  And they hope it takes months and years, and not days.

Good posts, value your input.  Need to go sell into huge late day rush of buying.

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 19:25 | 1190431 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

To both you guys: I don't think the wind down period will work. You might get a small pull back, maybe to $40, but then it will be off to the races again.

I think that most people know that this breather is to cool off PM's (and that QEIII is coming) and that it is the only thing that might work (it won't). They have tried shorting physical supply, ETFs (SLV, GLD, GDXJ, GDX) and miners. Last card in the deck is a take down of the markets IMHO.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:57 | 1189659 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Agreed on the capital base here.  The game for the next several months is judging how the banks unwind.  I have advocated on here for leaching this process.  But I don't see a reversal and suppression.  That just ain't working. 

I don't think any of the large banks cared much about the price appreciation in gold and silver since 2000 ungil about a year ago.  In fact, they likely made some money.  When the ETFs and bigger boys started wading into the pool however, the game started to change.  Now, fighting the long term bull gets much more costly as each manipulation just became 20, 30 and even 40% more expensive. 

Smarter folks than post here are reading the unwind tea leaves and the dips (havent been any for several sessions) are becoming less and less pronounced.  I think even the banks would concede that they have lost in this arena, they are just looking for a graceful exit.  And they hope it takes months and years, and not days.

Good posts, value your input.  Need to go sell into huge late day rush of buying.

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:33 | 1189245 ivars
ivars's picture

All signs of a log -periodic Sornette-Johansen  type bubble in silver going to crash in few weeks:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=140#p31889

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...

 

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:50 | 1189340 r101958
r101958's picture

Not this again..................unprint 3 Trillion or more $ and I will believe that silver is in a bubble.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:33 | 1189263 rookie
rookie's picture

Can someone explain why you think that they won't just confiscate gold and silver like 1933?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:52 | 1189325 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Because it isn't 1933 anymore . The FED RESERVE AND BANKS got themselves in the mess they need to get themselves out of it .But also I assume we are headed toward a new currency in the near future due to the suicidal tendancies of central banks right now .

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:24 | 1189492 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

I will defer to anyone else who has special knowledge on the subject, and there are quite a few here.  However, I found the following an interesting read.  I will not account for its accuracy but it follows a decent line of thinking.

http://www.bad-credit-advisor.com/2011/03/can-gold-confiscation-happen-i...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 17:03 | 1189949 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Because that would be a repudiation of their fiat.  It would be admitting they were/are wrong.  It would be a much clearer default than it was then because people are not in bumfuck somewhere hoping the next dustcloud isn't their last and instead they are searching out real information.

Or I could have just said lots of people in the U.S. have guns.  Is that sufficient?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 17:15 | 1190004 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Because they did not confiscate silver last time (it was currency) and the gold confiscation only netted the US 500 tons.    That was also with a much more law-abiding population who relatively trusted banks.  

Most of the recoveries were voluntary and from safety deposit boxes.

This generation?  We will NOT comply.  

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 17:23 | 1190033 rookie
rookie's picture

Thank you for the responses.  My grandparents handed in their gold because they got nervous.  I guess the threat of a ten year prison sentence can do that.

http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102

http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6111

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 17:47 | 1190116 akak
akak's picture

My grandparents handed in their gold because they got nervous. 

Today, even with the horde of mindless sheep that masquerades as citizens, if the fascist US government tried the same thing they would just receive a collective laugh in their face and a giant "FUCK YOU!".

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 19:29 | 1190435 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

And they would hear an inordinate amount of what seems like endless clicking simultaneously.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 19:38 | 1190464 rookie
rookie's picture

Is it dumb to buy with credit card? or through IRA?  would you only use cash?  i just feel like they might just take it away . . .

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 22:31 | 1190873 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

I guess it would depend on how, where and how much you are planning to purchase.  Small amounts locally, at a coin shop, cash.  Through a broker, for larger amounts, you are going to have to pay via. certified check.  Banks hate this so you should feel good about doing it to them.  They will ask you a bunch of intrusive questions, be warned.  You are under no obligation to answer them!  My response was a resounding FU.

If you plan on adding it to your IRA (if you have one which will accept gold purchases) or opening a gold IRA, I think you need to really ask yourself why you are investing in gold?  You are already concerned that the government will take it away, and the only gold which can be held in this type of account is bullion.

You will find most people here are not keen on this because we like to hold the physical.  The IRS requires you to deposit the gold in a custodian bank which you will be paying a maintenance fee for storage.  When/If the poopie hits the fan I think you will find you are SOL getting at the physical, if there was ever any there to begin with.  I have added a link for you to browse.

http://www.goldandsilverexchange.info/gold-IRA.html

Pay with a credit card if you want to, but pay off the balance.  If you are worried about the government knowing you are purchasing gold.  It doesn't really matter the people you are buying from will have to log the purchase.

If you are really concerned and have the finances to do it.  Go with pre-1933 gold coins and/or coins which are graded and have a numismatic value.  This is still is no guarantee, but at least you can fight them on the grounds they are collectibles.

Hope this helps.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:49 | 1189329 r101958
r101958's picture

TPTB are certainly trying to keep it below 45 to end the day.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:51 | 1189344 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Didnt work too well, $45 and 1500 regained. Tough to be having to try to mash down PM's these days.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:01 | 1189398 r101958
r101958's picture

We'll see.....they like to pull quickies at the very end of the day.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 16:46 | 1189895 r101958
Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:52 | 1189348 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

I see SLV bounding nicely - up $.98 on the day and will close at around 3x normal volume.

The bullion carry trade to EUR/Asia could be interesting.  Too bad it's so bulky.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:02 | 1189385 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

This weekend has to be the highest candidate for an intermediate top I have ever seen.  Maybe silver goes to $80 or $160 in the end, and remain that way for the rest of your life, and the physical holders will win, but I give that scenario a 2% chance of actually becoming reality.   I would rather play the infinite game of the paper.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:05 | 1189406 r101958
r101958's picture

....what, and die a death of 1000 paper cuts.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:14 | 1189445 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

The difference between $20 and $100 silver is -- at most -- few bucks per unit in most industrial uses of the metal.  Manufacturers will pay and contract sellers will still have to deliver.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:21 | 1189464 McPoopypants
McPoopypants's picture

I made a calculation of USDA retail beef price/lb in correlation with AG, AU prices since March 09. Trying to estimate actual purchasing power of AG vs AU. Silver tripled in purchasing power of actual food. Maybe Robo's Mom can put it up on the fridge.

(Disclaimer- this is open to interpretation. Could be that AG was significantly underpriced for longer, or there is indeed a speculative bubble, or something else (AG is sorta nonmonetary, so seen as a worse hedge against SHTF).

 

Cute secondary observation, price of actual beef rose by ~12% in the last year. Of course inflations is still at 2% because the Brenank doesn't eat meat (opting for souls of children instead. )

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 17:06 | 1189967 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

The soul is dessert; the blood, brains and heart are the main course.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:21 | 1189471 stuman
stuman's picture

 I think I understand a little of what drives the PM market UP, I'm just not 100% clear on if demand is high, what drives it down?

Don't see the dollar gaining any serious str, inflationary effects I believe will continue to be felt across the board...

So, what type of economic event/s could make the Silver run bust atm?

Regards2All

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:32 | 1189527 r101958
r101958's picture

JPM et al shorting paper silver.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:25 | 1189497 css1971
css1971's picture

Yon chart is getting too steep, the exponent just increased. I'm looking at ~$30 - $35 before I start buying again.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 18:27 | 1190256 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Those dollars are backed by what ? Fannie, Freddie AIG, GM(debt ) plus countless banks , 2 wars plus reconstructing those countries , Medicare and social security, selling yen , bailing out countries by contributing to the IMF I am sure I have missed some but you get the point that these are the new weimar reparations and this speeding up will only increase in velocity .

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:30 | 1189528 earlthepearl
earlthepearl's picture

Here comes another pop higher,

Do you think we have another up-day tomorrow?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:33 | 1189535 r101958
r101958's picture

as what's his name said yesterday......'it is not parabolic' ...if it goes to triple figures this year then it is parabolic.....right now it is orderly.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:32 | 1189544 r101958
r101958's picture

Sorry, 'what's his name' = Jim Rogers

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:40 | 1189582 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

The parabolic rhetoric is used by those old enough to remember the Hunt brothers fiasco.  It is in nobody's interest for silver to go parabolic, except the shorts.  Shorts wishing for a Hunt brother's replay will be sorely disappointed.  Not that it will not be mobilized as a strategy around $50.   But, equally, I wouldn't be surprised to see silver hit $50 and just keep on trucking upwards...  History never really repeats itself... except as farce.  And the final silver pop--if ever there is one--will be the most comedic and stupid experience you will have ever lived through as a trader.  Not a Mad Max replay of people bartering silver for ammo and gasoline, but pure stupidity.   Think MSM lemmings and crazy, stupid HFT manips.  

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 17:04 | 1189969 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

+ a parabola

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 19:29 | 1190444 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

+ a hockey stick

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:34 | 1189550 earlthepearl
earlthepearl's picture

I have some ITM call options, and I am wondeirng if I should unload today

oor be greedy and hope we shoot higher tomorrow

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:37 | 1189553 r101958
r101958's picture

Short day or no day tomorrow, I believe.

 

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