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SLV Silver Holdings Jump 3% From 2011 Lows

Tyler Durden's picture




 

One of the most pronounced self-reinforcing features of the silver drop from the last two days, was the outright drop in silver holdings in the SLV ETF, which in the span of 5 days, from May 2 to May 6, lost 760 tonnes of silver. The sheer momentum of this move, as some claim, was the biggest factor facilitating the record rout in silver. Well, as of yesterday this trend has reversed itself, and as of close yesterday SLV has disclosed that it added 311 tonnes of silver, or nearly half the underlying amount lost in the selloff. Nonetheless, the overreaction within the SLV complex was massive, as while silver spot remained well above 2011 lows, the SLV ETF holdings actually plunged to a 2011 low level which had last been seen in November 2010. And with silver rising fast again this morning, printing at $38.50 as we type, look for the downward momentum, which so many eagerly pointed to to indicate the relentless nature of the rout, to reverse itself. Add to this the fact that non-commercial specs are at multi year lows, and very soon the only possible argument for the bubble claimants will be that all silver has merely rotated out of very weak hands into truly strong ones.

 

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Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:57 | 1258528 The Axe
The Axe's picture

That correction has created a huge amount of over-head resistance, the trapped silver nuts will greet each price level up to 50 with more selling...in fact silver will not print above 41 this year again...at 40 I plan to short again. sorry Silver Bears YOUTUBE stars yes..correct on silver NO.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:03 | 1258545 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Looks like you may get your chance to re-short in a few hours.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:09 | 1258568 DaBernank
DaBernank's picture

+38.60 ;)

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:09 | 1258570 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

This is a pure guess, but $42 looks like equilibrium to me.  We build from there, unless the deflationary sag sets in due to QE2 ending in June.  Which I am more than hoping for, because I've got a shopping list.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:19 | 1258591 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I've also got a list. Only one item on it. Hahahaha

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:23 | 1258606 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

beer?

or tampons for the misses? :)

 

RED FLAG OR NOT!!! I'M SWIMMING!!

 

 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:55 | 1258694 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theyre never going to 'stop QE' they cant even go 1 day without buying the hell out of stocks and bonds with billions pumped in futures to keep the total scam running. If they were to stop it we wouldnt see 'deflation' we'd see a complete collapse of markets.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:25 | 1258610 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Flag me as junk if you must (ha ha) but when I started in the business, it was on Lehmans South African Gold Desk, and I saw a margin induced 6 day limit down gold correction. And baby it NEVER came back. And that is what you have here...Silver is done.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:29 | 1258625 tmosley
tmosley's picture

What?  There is no such thing as limit down in gold, you fucking moron.

Get the fuck out of here, you lying sack of shit.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:48 | 1258670 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Of course you are wrong, and if you were on Wall Street, I would come down to your office and shove your keyboard up your ass. 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:50 | 1258678 tmosley
tmosley's picture

There is no such thing as limit up or limit down on gold.  You are welcome to prove me wrong.  But you can't, because you are a stupid little shit of a troll who can't even get his backstory straight.  Or the price action of gold, for that matter.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:15 | 1258994 GittyUP
GittyUP's picture

tmosely, Your are 100% wrong on this one. gold had daily trading range limits in the early 80's. Google is your friend. Also the Axe is correct to say inflation adjusted gold is not near its high yet. http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/files/gold_inflation_adjusted_1.png

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:22 | 1259007 tmosley
tmosley's picture

lololol, you guys are bearish on gold because the price isn't at an all time inflation adjusted high.

THAT'S funny.

Also, lol at the utter lack of proof on the daily trading limits on gold. Not that I give a shit. That's the past, and until the US becomes a net creditor nation again, that little episode won't be repeating itself.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:54 | 1258702 Rynak
Rynak's picture

mogul rider? Is that you? :)

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 12:29 | 1259499 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

The Ass....

 

You are obviously an EE shill, paid in blowjob certificates (redeemable at Jamie Dimon's desk), to troll ZH and shit on silver.

 

Please report back to Blythe Master's office and give her anal glands a good cleansing.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:34 | 1258629 Quintus
Quintus's picture

" I saw a margin induced 6 day limit down gold correction. And baby it NEVER came back."

Are you for real?  Are you saying that gold prices today are lower than when they were when you 'Started in the Business'?  Presumably that's what 'NEVER came back' means?  I think you may have installed your screen upside down mate.

Jesus, I can see why Lehmans went tits-up with razor sharp traders like you on board. 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:44 | 1258665 The Axe
The Axe's picture

850 in 1980 is higher then 1517 in 2011...Yes that is what I mean...And thank you for your nice thoughts about my job performance

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:54 | 1258692 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

"in fact silver will not print above 41 this year again"

You'll be needing a new ZH ID a lot sooner than you think. What is "Axe", your third? Or fifth? Check for polyps while you're in there.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:13 | 1258762 The Axe
The Axe's picture

of course NOT.. your wrong..same id for years..And I will take my loses like a man if they happen, but they won't short 10,000 GLD long 300 July 31 SLV puts...Have a nice day

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:17 | 1259156 fuu
fuu's picture

Figures a former Lehman trader doesn't know the difference between your and you're.

 

OMG I sound like molecool now.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 12:59 | 1259597 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

When you say in fact you won't see silver print above 41 again this year.

You mean to say when people are throwing as many dollars into silver as they are into gold. With that kind of insane buying pressure you can paint the tape? Yup you definitely worked for Llheman.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q03BlD22-NQ

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:57 | 1258697 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Which indicates just how far gold and silver still have to run. Unless you're saying that a new Volker is going to magically raise the interest rates to 14%, we are going to lose a substantial amount of debt and allow the dollar to gain in value, manufacturing would have a new large base added to it and entice others to buy our bonds? 

Is this what you mean? Because if it is, you couldn't trade to save your life.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:30 | 1258853 Goldenhands57
Goldenhands57's picture

Bingo! No majic this time around. Kool aid is a flowing like Niagra and there it no possible way to bring back the middle class from here. America's Industrial base has been gutted. We're a "Service Economy"..such as.. the same kind of "service" given by paid Hookers. We WERE a Nation of producers..now we are simply a pack of Wal Mart whores.  

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:26 | 1258613 Palmer Eldritch
Palmer Eldritch's picture

We'll see if you're right.  40-42 is a strong resistance zone.  I would cover on break of 42.50.  But, trolls never cover, right?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:15 | 1259231 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

the 3 Stigmata in this case being Gold SLV and Trolls.

 

SLV to $60 baby by end of year!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:30 | 1258615 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

So it will not go about $41 because you plan to short again at $40?

You do realize that odd lots don't move markets?

Just saying.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:30 | 1258617 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

That was more than a correction. It was a pure intented bash down.

The big dogs want to control what you should have confidence in, like priceline and netflix. THe goldbugs were starting to cramp their style of ponzi. Like spoiled babys that don't get their way, would rather destroy the toy than let anyone else play with it.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:47 | 1258667 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL The Axe applies fundamentals to the coordinated in-your-face manipulated PM takedown? What a dork!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:10 | 1258763 Badabing
Badabing's picture

Pump and dump SLV/GLD = volatility and physical collection for op/ex delivery. SLV moves the silver market more than the industrial users DYODD

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:20 | 1258813 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Same thing happened after the first spike to 49 and drop on 4/25. Over 7mm ounces were added.  Then we got a quick rally followed by a huge drop.

Short covering drives the arb positive and adds OZs to the trust.

Basically, SLV increases volatility big time.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:18 | 1259222 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

by The Axe
on Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:57
#1258528

 

That correction has created a huge amount of over-head resistance, the trapped silver nuts will greet each price level up to 50 with more selling...in fact silver will not print above 41 this year again...at 40 I plan to short again. sorry Silver Bears YOUTUBE stars yes..correct on silver NO.

****************************************************************

I plan on buying ever dip.. I hope that they do sell it lower..

when the Republicans blow the debt cap and the full faith of the U.S. dollar is shit on... when we have forced austerity measures brought on by the Republicans.. we will see how fucking stable paper is?

Let me guess you would rather take the ignorance is blissful and at your starbucks this morning everyone looked happy route?

when men get hungry and watch their children become hungry while tax cuts / scratch that shit.. while $0 fucking tax dollars are paid by the richest.. so that the poor can pull themselves up by their bootstraps!

I dont think that the republicans really accurately grasp what this pulling up by the bootstraps entails.. it really is more like bootstraps will be used to strangle the rich, until dead so that the poor can eat.

The police forces nationwide have been cut by 25% - 50%.

That leaves the military who has been training for house to house now for a decade!

I hope I am wrong, I hope that I worry too much, I hope that I give the force of this event to much energy... I hope that people starve happily and stay out of my gated community or at least on the other side of the fence.

But! I will NOT! ignore what could very well turn ugly, using ALL of history as my template!

Hungry People are NOT! nice people.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 12:39 | 1259521 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Easy with the one-sided bashing.  Do you claim dems aren't just as bad.  The leadership on both sides is evil, and serves the same master.

 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:27 | 1259277 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Whole bunch of trolls started life about 1 1/2 years ago.  I wonder what caused that.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 13:01 | 1259600 akenathon
akenathon's picture

you're right but don't forget that next week we have options expiry on SLV and some huge moves could be expected on the upside...

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:00 | 1258531 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Back to $50 early July  :)

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:11 | 1258968 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

LOL!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:13 | 1258978 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I see you have abandoned all pretense of not being a perma-bear.

Wed, 05/11/2011 - 02:07 | 1261947 eisley79
eisley79's picture

Dangertime called 50-60 two fridays ago, right before the monday correction, he nailed it, must be why he is lol'ing....i know its why i am lol'ing, everytime i see his name

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:20 | 1259242 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by Silverhog
on Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:00
#1258531

 

Back to $50 early July  :)

*************************************************************

Next week? maybe the week after, MAX!

 

O Wait! it still is $50! if you want eagles in your hand!

 

if you want paper, then to lease and then take delivery of to pay back..

 

I am guessing that all of that equals $50 plus too..

 

So no matter what! if you want silver in your hand today! you are paying $50 or better.

 

If you want to trade paper, with no real delivery date for phyical silver.. it is much, much cheaper!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:59 | 1258535 Bazooka
Bazooka's picture

If SLV and GLD are safe havens, why were they falling like stocks last week?

Why were nearly everly commodity falling with SLV and GLD?

Shouldn't SLV and GLD rise while everything else falls? 

IT"S JUST ANOTHER PAIR OR EQUITIES!

SLV and GLD both crashed during 2008, May of 2010 and last week....in near lock step with equities.

I'm still waiting to see SLV and GLD separate away from all other markets....rather it's a part of the "all the same market".

 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:05 | 1258544 Construct
Construct's picture

Physical PM's and Paper PM's are two different things.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:11 | 1258562 Stormdancer
Stormdancer's picture

...and this is not 2008 either :)

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:21 | 1258599 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I STAND TO CORRECT YOU SIR!!!!

 

PAPER SILVER ISN'T JUST PAPER!!!!

it's actually nothing more than a digital number on your screen when you log in into your trading account...

if you want to receive a paper you need to print it on your own copy paper and with your own toner. So you'll have to invest a little "PREMIUM" to get it on paper so to speak.

 

 

 

 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:12 | 1259208 Two Towers AU AG
Two Towers AU AG's picture

I STAND TO CORRECT YOU SIR!!!!

He actually likes to see the digital number change colour from Green to Red.. something our Physical Metals cannot do...

So what if he cannot touch it feel it or see it shine.. -:)

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:36 | 1259316 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

at least in the old days the company would register your paper on their books and your broker would courier the paper to you.

now, its not even registered in your name. your holdings are a liability on your broker's books.

Funny how scrip is now the equivalent of 'unallocated' PM.

I know I know, I should trust the system. MERS works perfect...right...right?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:23 | 1258607 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

Owning physical PM is like owning a gun (with sufficient ammo to heat that barrell to white hot) and owning paper PM is like owning stock in a gun company.  When I need my gun, it is there and will accomplish the task I assign it.  Unless the gun company adopts a Dominos' Pizza delivery system, there is nothing I can do with that paper other than wipe my ass or use it to wipe up the blood that was spilled from those coming through my front door. 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:15 | 1258991 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Physical paper in hand indicates that you at least had the wherewithal to register your shares.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:43 | 1259351 Au_Ag_CuPbCu
Au_Ag_CuPbCu's picture

Amen!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 12:04 | 1259403 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

 

OT: Speaking of guns, this article should give us pause. If it's not talk of PM confiscation, there is and has been much talk about the NWO trying to grab your guns as well.

http://gallanteisen.incnf.org/GlobalWeapons%5BBP062011%5D.pdf

DaddyO

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:27 | 1258830 Badabing
Badabing's picture

I bought a car contract for my own transportation. The dealer handed me my contract and now someone else is driving the car!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:09 | 1258555 Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

Your argument might have merit if there weren't 3x margin hikes before the corrections occurred whereby changing the physical mechanics of the market.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:44 | 1258659 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Can't we already get an ignore-feature and be done with this plague? Being able to decide oneself with whom to interact and with whom not to interact doesn't seem too much to ask, to me.

Plus, if what someone else said is correct, and this site uses drupal, then a module for this already exists:

http://drupal.org/project/ignore_user

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:08 | 1258756 Raynja
Raynja's picture

How the hell did I miss a 10%+ correction in equities and gld?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:26 | 1259271 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by Bazooka
on Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:59
#1258535

 

If SLV and GLD are safe havens, why were they falling like stocks last week?

Why were nearly everly commodity falling with SLV and GLD?

Shouldn't SLV and GLD rise while everything else falls? 

IT"S JUST ANOTHER PAIR OR EQUITIES!

SLV and GLD both crashed during 2008, May of 2010 and last week....in near lock step with equities.

I'm still waiting to see SLV and GLD separate away from all other markets....rather it's a part of the "all the same market".

*******************************************************

if you want physical silver.. go tell anyone you want that you are paying spot or $2 over spot for silver eagles..

 

or maples..

 

or anything from a Government Mint.

 

Disconnect is here.. and it has been for some while.. Silver eagles are $50 - $65 on amazon and ebay.. and the dealers are not selling for paper prices anywhere and really have not been for some while.

 

maybe the magic pool of surplus will show up? becuase all of the manufacturing is booked solid, running 24 hours a day and still can not keep up..

 

I made an offer last night for someone! anyone to give me a number to the surplus people!

 

I can NOT! find this surplus anywhere.. and I have looked!

 

silver is $25 - $35 - $45 in paper terms? well silver put in my hand in eagle terms is still $50 + and that has not changed.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:02 | 1258536 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

...all silver has merely rotated out of very weak hands into truly strong ones.

It never left mine.

Bitches.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:11 | 1258567 achmachat
achmachat's picture

my stash somehow magically even got bigger last week!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:13 | 1258580 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

+1

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:54 | 1258691 HellFish
HellFish's picture

 +40oz

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:28 | 1259281 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

3 monster boxes! bigger and I will by another monster box every fucking time it goes down.. I am building a green mountain!

B!

T!

F!

D's!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:25 | 1258588 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

My hands are immovable until 150. Not because that is an inflation adjusted Bunker Hunt high but because that is the real production (mining) ratio between gold and silver. Efficient markets AHAHAHAHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. Thanks for the cheap new ounces last week central planners. AG/AU =9-10:1 period. Bubbles my azzzzzzzzzz.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:32 | 1258626 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

150 would only be the Hunt high if one first accepts the BLS BS stats as an accurate measure of inflation.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:53 | 1258669 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Good point. Actually I just use my own memory for inflation adjustment. I bought a new car for $6700, bottle of coke at a convenience store was 50cents a gallon of gas .77-.98 Today  $28k, $1.69 and $4.00. Your right, its about 4x real world currency debasement/inflation. Sorry Bureau of Lies you lose again. 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:30 | 1259293 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

http://www.halfhill.com/inflation.html

 

just for fun.. plug in the shadow stats inflation numbers for silver.. $538.82! per oz.. from 1979 forward!

 

sorry to spoil it for you.. above is a great inflation calculator with  the shadow stats option. (in options is where you will find the shadowstats.. gray box and with three buttons show rates / calculate / and *options* is the one you want)

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 14:53 | 1259999 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Thanks for the bookmark - saves me much time

My favorite long term example (Wikipedia has source id):

Mount Vernon (Home of George Washington) - 6500 acres of prime urban and suburban Washington D.C. real estate, in one of the wealthiest counties in the US.
$1 million in 1799 dollars $153/acre
$18 million in 2009 PP dollars $2769/acre

Official Inflation Measurement is off by perhaps 1 x 10^4 percent in 2 x 10^2 years

The BS power of the BLS &

The power of compound interest!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:17 | 1258593 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Or mine.

Maybe it should have read paper was exchanged from one weak hand to the other.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:43 | 1258664 dojiman
dojiman's picture

I drink to that.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:29 | 1259038 Inibo E. Exibo
Inibo E. Exibo's picture

Yes.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:00 | 1258537 LukeWorm
LukeWorm's picture

Busy, and strong, guys at the vault: moving 311 tonnes of silver is no small task!

Of course, if it's just paper silver, then it's much easier to move in and out ....

 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:22 | 1258603 boricuadigm-shift
boricuadigm-shift's picture

I think we have a new term to coin...  Forget Paper Silver... Digital Silver BITCHES!!!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:28 | 1258619 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

"lost 760 tonnes of silver"..hmm some how some way these numbers are suspect, that volume of silver was never sold much less moved..slv is one big question mark..invest wisely and stay alert.

show me the bank that has 760 tons of silver in it's vault..folks they think we are not just dumb but blind and ignorant..

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:04 | 1258728 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

They apparently want us to believe that tractor-trailers back up to JPM warehouses and haul away traincar-loads of silver every time Crimex engineers a sell-off.  What a farce.

What really happens is that some file clerk re-shuffles the paper bar list, and the old list of paper bars goes through the shredder.

Remember, according to SLV's prospectus, "We [Barclay's] never audit the silver, nor do we require our custodians or subcustodians to audit or verify a single paper ounce."

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 13:55 | 1259758 Strider52
Strider52's picture

There is actually only ONE silver bar, weighing in at 1 ozt. It sits in a glass case on the 3rd floor. They give it 1,520,000 serial numbers, and make 1,000's of copies of "Official Registered Claims". These they hand out to anyone with $38.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:07 | 1258541 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Strong hands indeed. I had to sell a bit to fund something and felt fine.

What I have gives me peace of mind.

Count me in the strong hand and getting stronger half.

I also realized today that having my "wealth" be variable is an interesting feeling. It's value fluctuates, like anything in nature should. paper just does not have any organic characteristics like that at all.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/05/09/population-control-vectors/

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:01 | 1258542 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

The silver in the trust is directly related to the numbers of shares outstanding.  How did SLV trade all that volume with a diminished number of shares?

Riddle me that.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:24 | 1259014 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Good question.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:28 | 1259044 Badabing
Badabing's picture

SLV 85% turnover last week?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:15 | 1259230 Two Towers AU AG
Two Towers AU AG's picture

SLV issued some 80 million new shares just as the price of silver was crashing.. read it somewhere on CNBX.. that might explain the high volume .

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:06 | 1258548 Goldenballs
Goldenballs's picture

The correction was a joke for people like Soros to buy even more physical Gold and Silver on the cheap before it goes hyperbolic.The fastest rising species in the World Financial System are Black Swans,the real story is which BS will take everything out first.The fundamentals are worse than ever,roll on an eastern PM exchange,or why not go the whole hog a Chinese,Russian,Indian,Brazillian common currency backed or composed of Gold and Silver,or would that equal WW3 ?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:11 | 1258561 ivars
ivars's picture

In few days silver will finish its correction to 30 or below . Do not make too much of a small hickup on the way down from 49,72 which started on April 25th. The drop has not ended-yet:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...

 

Similar hickup is happening in oil- it will last only few days before dipping lower, then resuming way up:

 

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...

But silver is no oil. Who needs it? ( a joke, excuse me). In one year, silver price will be above 45 USD, no worries here.

 

 

 

 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:25 | 1258605 Quintus
Quintus's picture

If silver does correct again, it will, just like last time, be because of a coordinated raid by the big Bullion Banks, the exchange and the regulators.

Are you aware of plans for such a raid, or are you just guessing?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:16 | 1258589 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

The governement only has a problem when silver hits 451$

So the next drop will only happen when silver passes 60$

than back to 45$

than up to 87$

than back to 74$

than up to 120$

...

untill margins are at 5000% of the actual silver price in which case only morons would buy paper and the paper will sink to 0,0001 cents and physical will be so high that people will risk to being shot when gangster see them carrying a 3 gram silver ring.

 

 

 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:21 | 1258595 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Question....I don't think you can sell into silver infinitely, at some point Blythe needs a different approach. Why not go to the FED's playbook and create a technical bubble in silver by running it up? I am guessing a clue would be if the aftermath doesn't look like your typical bubble crash......

Are we hitting a run it up, hike margin, sell into it group effort in commodities in general?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:00 | 1259170 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I think they play it both ways.  They aren't stupid...many psychopaths are smart.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:45 | 1259359 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I think we just saw version 1.0 of that plan.  It doesn't seem to have worked.  If the rebound continues they may try again or go to plan 'C' what ever that is. Confiscation rumors?  It seems a bit early for that.  Any other legal tactics they can pull? Their only real advantage is they own the gevernment and have a monopoly on the use of force, but using the big guns may not be worth it for a market as small as silver. We can always be potrayed as survivalist nutcases and ignored although that isn't going so well for them.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:19 | 1258600 Glasgow Gary
Glasgow Gary's picture

It remains unclear what outflows of bullion actually mean, from the SLV trust. We shouldn't go with the popular view, which is not actually supported, that outflows of bullion are triggered by investor selling of SLV shares. That's actualy NOT how the trusts work. Instead, we should always assume unless shown otherwise, that outflows of bullion are going to the authorized participants who are converting their shares to bullion. Indeed, the bullion in the SLV trust fell hard in the 3 weeks leading up and through the recent price high.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:27 | 1258609 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Agreed.  These outflows are actually very positive for silver as they imply either authorised participants withdrawing physical to meet demand elsewhere (probably the LBMA) or they are simply taking their physical out before TSHTF and it gets tangled up in legal disputes for years after SLV blows up.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:32 | 1258616 Bob
Bob's picture

I was tempted to check into this notion of outflows triggered by sales of SLV shares, since it didn't make sense to me either.  Some authoritative clarification would be appreciated. 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:34 | 1258632 BigJim
BigJim's picture

I'm not clear about all this. Surely when holders of SLV 'sell', it's another way of saying someone else 'bought'? Or is it considered 'selling' if the price is lower than the previous price/close/size of a garden gnome's waistcoat?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:56 | 1258704 depression
depression's picture

This presumes JPM actually has the 600 tons of physical silver in a vault somewhere, which I personally do not believe at all. I doubt JPM has 1/10th the physical silver the ETF claims they have in a vault backing this paper shuffle game being played.

The mental image of a work crew in the JPM vault racing around forklifting 600 tons of physical metal out the door and onto Brinks trucks at some loading dock is hilarious.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:30 | 1258614 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

How do you assign a value to something that has no value? Currency has no value- it merely has a price. The price is reflected in what it can buy. The dollar is no stronger than it was when silver was at $50 ( yes, I realize it moved from 72 to 75 in a basket of other garbage currencies). 

Silver and gold are their own currency. Accumulate more when it is cheap from manipulation and I thank JPM and HSBC for being the monsters they are. 

JPM and HSBC will be around for ever, gold and silver manipulation will be around as long as we have paper currency. Thankfully, my wealth will be around as well. 

Currency is just spending money. Buy silver low and sell it high and spend the difference. Keep your gold. 

We could run out, governments could attempt to confiscate or the hoarding could make it difficult to buy at any price, but if that happens, hyperinflation has come and a new currency is in the works. 

Ride it out trading or supplying staples and it will be all good. The farmers in Weimar lived very well. A pound of butter was almost unattainable in 1923. You could get a grand piano for a couple of weeks worth of food items.

History is an unending revelation of the same banker/government policies creating the same solutions to the same created problems and the people too ignorant to understand or too hungry to revolt. Give them a bit of food and shelter or small check in worthless currency and they will acquiesce. Kind of like now...

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Bankers, politicians, religious leaders- all parasites. We exchange our blood and lives for their promises of comfort and security. After all they take, they still renege on the deal. 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:35 | 1258643 BigJim
BigJim's picture

++

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:59 | 1258720 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Long time no see... How did the spring planting go?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:10 | 1258748 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Hey Flakmeister,

Been around. I do more skulking than writing. 

The planting is still in process. Should finish tilling today and planting this week- providing the rains stop. April was a killer in Western Kentucky. The ground is just saturated. It should be a good year, just a late one. 

Hope you are well.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:30 | 1258854 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I was wondering how you were dealing with the rains...

A few of us at the Hedge wouldn't mind getting the occasional farm report...

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:33 | 1258630 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

SLV is for pussies.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:40 | 1258658 gordengeko
gordengeko's picture

and agq/zsl are for freebasing fiat junkies.  I'm guilty

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:38 | 1258651 bilbert
bilbert's picture

"Added 310 tons in one day"

Right.........

That's close to 10 MILLION ounces - where do you find that kind of Silver in one day??

Sprott knows.............. you DON'T!

 

 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:03 | 1258735 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

maybe they bought it on Ebay from some chinese guy?

 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:44 | 1258666 Seacap81
Seacap81's picture

Silver could rocket at any point IF their is a dollar event in our future and I maintain one is coming very soon.  An ominous statement can be traced back to October, 2010 when Wen Jiaboa came out and said China supports a stable Euro and Stable Euro Bonds.  Draw your own conclusions. 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:53 | 1258700 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

China does not have the power and influence that many claim they have. Their economy is still only 10% as large as ours....the rest is lying exaggeration by the commies and wannabees. 

Yeah, the USD is toilet paper. But the Euro dies first.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:37 | 1259088 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

If you think the Chinese economy is only 1/10 of ours, you better put that crack pipe down.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 23:50 | 1261750 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

1/10th, you put it down.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:44 | 1259114 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture


10%? Pull the other one. You've gone so far in the opposite direction of the overstaters you've ended up spouting the same degree of bullshit.

China, without a shadow of a doubt, has around 5 times (count 'em) the population of the US; that's quite a market. Even a marginal realignment of the FX heirarchy in the Yuan's favour leaves a whole lot of people with more purchasing power...

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 23:51 | 1261753 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

1.3 billion with 1.2 billion of them dirt poor. Wake up.

Wed, 05/11/2011 - 14:22 | 1264109 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

In which currency? USD? Oops, not even by that metric.

China: creditor nation

US: The Mother of all Debtor nation.

Wealth disparity in the US driving up the median that underscores your misapprehension: priceless.

So, who is 'dirt poor' again?

Rise from your torpor.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 14:52 | 1259990 Zing
Zing's picture

You're an idiot if you think China is only 10% of US GDP.  As mentioned already, Chinese demand for gold is HUGE, and if even a small fraction of the population is buying gold (in addition to the government) then you have huge support for Gold that the bankers and US govt. won't be able to supress.  Pull the other one.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 23:50 | 1261757 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

As I just said, 100 million people can buy a lot of gold. The other poor 1.2 billion? Not so much.  The average wage is 45 cents a fucking hour. Give me a break, they cannot buy shit.

Yeah, 10% the size. HELLO.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:48 | 1258682 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

10 million ounces of silver suddenly 'added' when its been tough to find 50 coins at dealers for months? 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:06 | 1258745 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

If you put 5 silver ounce on the table in a cirlce

move them all by replacing every coin closest from their right

and count every ounce that passes you

I bet after a while you'll be at 10 million.

Either way: the sum may be 10 million but you'll still have only 5.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:33 | 1259302 Two Towers AU AG
Two Towers AU AG's picture

I put FIVE 1$ note on the table in a cirlce

I moved them all by replacing every 1$FRN closest from their right

and counted every 1$ that passed me by

I am now counting at $1306.. one of these days I am gonna be richer than Blythe and own more FRN than were ever printed..... and then the game for them will be over.... :):)

Thanks Sudden debt.. for making me rich... /SARC

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:51 | 1258683 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Losing 760 tonnes of silver would require approx. 32 fully loaded tractor trailers to move. And then a few days later, another 15 trucks carrying silver "arrived".  

We should have video cameras setup outside all the "vaults" to watch the loading and unloading of all the trucks coming and going.

 

 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:59 | 1258721 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Damn, that is a good idea.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:20 | 1258723 depression
depression's picture

+++

Cannot use a tractor trailer to move 600 tons of silver bars around the country. Need armoured trucks with qualified and bonded security guards.

How many armoured trucks will it take to move that 300 tons of metal around the country every day ?

 

Wed, 05/11/2011 - 00:04 | 1261786 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

True.

2-3 tons per Brinks armored car. A small army.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:00 | 1258722 White.Star.Line
White.Star.Line's picture

Holding physical PMs might get you a seat on the lifeboat.
Holding paper PMs only puts you on the lifeboat "list".

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:07 | 1258751 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

What amazes me is that when SLV was created, it took them 6 month to collect the first 15 million ounces.

Looks like they OPTIMIZED their purchasing departement!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:18 | 1258769 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Short covering, bitchez.  Same thing happened after the first spike to 49 and drop on 4/25. Over 7mm ounces were added.  Then we got a quick rally followed by a huge drop.

Short covering drives the arb positive and adds OZs to the trust.

Basically, SLV increases volatility big time.

 

 

 

 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:17 | 1258989 GittyUP
GittyUP's picture

tmosely,

Your are 100% wrong on this one.  gold had daily trading range limits in the early 80's.  Google is your friend.  Also the Axe is correct to say inflation adjusted gold is not near its high yet. 

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/files/gold_inflation_adjusted_1.png

 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:21 | 1259013 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I think Google is your enemy.

Prove it. Don't ask your opponent to prove your case for you. That is just stupid.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:58 | 1259161 fuu
fuu's picture

Seems the bears are back. Blythe must be in trouble today if the Flying Monkey Brigade is out in full effect.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 12:52 | 1259569 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Indeed. They can't hide from the inventory destruction going on at all levels. APMEX sold 10,000 oz of 100oz bars last night, and are now OUT of 5 oz APMEX bars. They had more than 3000 on that fateful Sunday night. Another type of 5 oz bar is down to a few dozen, also from ~3000 bars, and the last type is down from ~3500 to ~2100.

Inventory is absolutely FLEEING the shelves at these prices.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:23 | 1259265 SilverDoctors
SilverDoctors's picture

You mean SLV paper holdings.  No chance in hell SLV increased physical silver holdings.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 16:50 | 1260510 Nacho Libre
Nacho Libre's picture

Has anyone considered that APMEX and bullion brokers go around like car salesman (no offense if you are a car salesman) and tell everybody that silver's flying off the shelves or that supply is limited just to justify an outrageous premium to the retail public?  Just a thought...

Another thought: What if Congress does work out an austerity plan for the budget here in the next week? I suggest a little bit of insurance at the 33 strike put out for the next 45 days.

FYI: I have little faith in the douchebags in Congress starting with Pelosi and Boehner. Both are too radical.  Cut Military spending by bringing home most of the troops in Afghanistan.  Raise taxes on individuals making over 500K.  Tax hedge fund managers on income earned and not at the capital gains rate.  Move the capital gains tax rate to 20%. Overhaul the tax code and add a 3% national sales tax.  And tax cigarettes by a $1.50 a pack.  Move SS full benefit age for people born after 1976 to 69. Bring back the public option and the ability to collectively bargain for lower drug costs.  

It's not the Fed to blame... Blame the Congress

Just keep buying physical gold and silver everytime you have money to save, no matter the price at this point, although the paper trade in the futures still looks like a Short to me. 

Vaya Con Dios, Compadres

 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:48 | 1261010 DNB-sore
DNB-sore's picture

took a nice leverazed bet at below 35 and feeling very well and did not forget to cash in on the paper market and so getting more physical. Looks like this is being a kind of free market cashing in leverage to physical. Waiting for the next dip going to be taking some time...

Getting loaded for free

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 20:12 | 1261077 DNB-sore
DNB-sore's picture

also crude did very well. I'm just a plus500 trader and just my simple trading account is sickening.... profit taken, loading bullion. I'm sorry for the fucking simplicity. Almost no costs and after cashing still got some positions open because there is still gain after the so called "collapse". Bears get out for this moment, you are gotting to get burned till the next high and short like suiting you. Had LOL last days. Please put AG below 30 so I can have double the fun and get really worried to install a 5-ton vault to my house. My house is not very big and I know, this is really my problem. Please do not force me to do that

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