This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Smart Money Preparing For Sell Off Like Never Before
Zero Hedge readers already know that in the latest week the insider selling to buying ratio hit unprecedented levels. Obviously, corporate officers and insiders have decided to take advantage of the artificial wealth effect and bail, especially since it is still unclear whether capital gains taxes will be the same in the following year. However, it is not only insiders who see between the lines. As the following charts demonstrate, the smart money is now either bailing from the stock market in droves or hedging for a market crash like never before...
First, from Sentiment Trader, here is the put/call ratio. Self-explanatory:
From the same source: the Commitment of Trader report of commercial (not speculative) NDX hedgers. Also self-explanatory.
And lastly, tieing it all together: the cash at mutual funds. Or, more correctly, lack thereof.
The simple observation: dumb money continues to be at near record bullishness (IBD, AAII surveys), gold market timers are only 40% in, the smart money is short/hedged in size like never before, mutual funds have the lowest cash level on record, and have experienced 29 consecutive weekly outflows which have so far been compensated for broad NAV declines through artificial price increases: that will very soon end. We have heard through sources that following last week's HF insider trading probe redemption requests at many of the implicated hedge funds* have gone through the roof. They will all have to sell some/many of their liquid holdings into the year end. Our only question: aside from the Primary Dealers, the HFT momentum traders who have no balance sheet, and the Federal Reserve: who is there to buy?
* We would like to point out that we were contacted by Maverick in regards to our post on Gasparino's report that Maverick Capital, Ltd. received a subpoena earlier this week. According to Maverick they have, in fact, not received a subpoena.
And as a reminder, here is the latest insider selling to buying table:
»
- 37432 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
QEoptions?
I don't think the numbers here tell the full story. If you look at the index P/C ratio for the past few months it has not moved that much. Here is the data from CBOE:
http://www.cboe.com/data/PutCallRatio.aspx
Look at the index or equity P/C. There's not a rising trend that I can see. And this indicator is often wrong. The data goes back to 2003. Look at the P/C numbers from 2008-2009 when the market was in freefall plunging 500+ points a day. The P/C ratio was not high. So smart money was not hedging then. They were losing their shirts like everybody else.
So I would not read too much into P/C numbers. There's no one magic number that can predict when the market will plunge. Instead, focus on the intermediate and long term trend in the economy and sectors of the economy that you're interested in. You'll do better that way.
George Orwell
Agreed that tops are virtually impossible to pick, but as far as I can see, the intermediate and long term trends agree with the P/C and insider selling. I see no engine of revenue or profit growth until personal income begins to rise meaningfully. It is a very open question whether the equity market wealth effect can continue to spur end demand in the top 5% of the wealth/income range to offset the plummeting demand from the other 95%. My long term focus would be Dow 5,000 before 14,000.
People love to trot out the insider selling numbers, but I have yet to see a quantitative study that shows its usefulness as an indicator of market direction.
With the Committment of Traders numbers, here someone actually did run numbers: http://www.tradingtheodds.com/2010/10/commitments-of-traders-cot-in-nasd...
... and historically it's not the outcome that is being pushed here.
That article's conclusion
seems not to undermine ZH's argument much, since I presume the latter's not mainly meant as short-term trading advice.
Unfortunately for the bears, if the smart money is already hedged, they don't need to sell.
A great point....
Commercial hedgers are net short.
They already have sold.
A great point....
Hey sweetheart! Glad to see you out and about. Hope your work is satisfying and you and your family are doing well.
'Hedged' LOL like they still hold their positions...I'll let you in on a little secret, theyve already sold, and there are no more open buyers. Cant have a short/long hadge when theres no one out there to buy the long side!
Interesting. A current strategy could be Prechter-esque, 99.9% cash, with an eye toward accumulating cheaper and cheaper shares of whatever floats your boat.
I must say that if N. Korea and China decide to go for WW3, you might see a nice, er, PULLBACK.
I hope President Obama's lip is healing and he will be back on the court playing basketball soon.
You don't really believe that basketball story, do you?
Why don't you tell me what I ought to believe. I'm naive and will believe anything.
....but, you are a racoon, no?
here, you take a nice dish of of catfood...soon we all will be appreciating the long-term storability, the scientifically blended protein, vitamins.l.m
PD Quig
"Agreed that tops are virtually impossible to pick, but as far as I can see, the intermediate and long term trends agree with the P/C and insider selling. I see no engine of revenue or profit growth until personal income begins to rise meaningfully. It is a very open question whether the equity market wealth effect can continue to spur end demand in the top 5% of the wealth/income range to offset the plummeting demand from the other 95%. My long term focus would be Dow 5,000 before 14,000..."
AGREE, i approve this message....buy lots of baltic-bulk-dry-index CATFOOD...take delivery
You mean to say they are naked shorting catfood by printing endless certificates for the stuff?
Unfortunately with Obama it might be true, we have a president who golfs all the time and then plays basketball
A real baller.
His busted lip can still move and tell more tales.
@Polish
Only when he's not watching ESPN.
or not really up for the count.
Another misguided child heard from:
http://www.thehotjoints.com/2010/11/18/james-carville-obama-needs-two-ba...
- Ned
"You don't really believe that basketball story, do you?"
Michelle Meat Hook?
I bet she's got a Smokin' Joe Frazier left hook... Racked that lanky fucker with one...
Do you think Obummer is on the Teleprompter D.L. with that fat lip??
A high level Dem insider told me contemporaneously that Hillary used to throw the antique WH china at Bill for his sexcapades and that the Secret Service was forced to lock it up and let her break the cheap stuff instead.
ash trays were also involved. - Ned
New Meat, my fine pig, you are not so new anymore, now are you? ;-)
HehHehHeh.....looks like we got a hardline obammaphile here taking major offence......they are as thin skinned as the bammaboy....
What are they doing with all that cash?
In which direction is the money flow?
Buying people perhaps?
'Direction of Money Flow' Great point and my thoughts exactly. This is what Goldman and a few know.
The market will only go down when they see they can short it and win again. GS will not let the masses make the money on the short side. They need to shake out as many as possible. It's all about the 'money flow'. A++ to ya.
There are to many idiots out there which try to "make money" in this game.
As long as all this "smart boyz" have money to gamble the game will continue.
Double
I feel this will be a week to remember.
The European finance ministers are about to vote on the Irish EFSF package, but the interest rate hasn't been decided on yet. F*ck it, they'll do it live.
My bet is 5.0%.
5.5% - just because it resembles SS.
Could be. It would be politically difficult for the rate to be below (or much below) the Greek rate. (5.2%, right?). Likewise it's surely not going to be 6.7%, at least not overall.
In other news, there's speculation we might be about to hear some bad things about the banks' derivative books. (I know, who could have imagined it?) I don't (yet?) see any reason to believe the suggestions that the pension fund was directly tied into derivaties, though.
Nice link MBD........you morphed into a Zero Hedge headline. NPRF in the deal for 20% of the total and a zero interest rate of return.
Also followed the Peter Matthews piece and if one is to believe Matthews (and why not) then the banks are still lying about the 60 some billion in losses - no surprise, right.
I think 6.5 percent.
The IMF's supposed to be providing a third of the money at c. 4.5% so the overall package probably can't reach 6.5%.
http://news.carrentals.co.uk/repayment-interest-rate-row-may-derail-iris...
I was wrong. I have been reading 6.7 percent.
here they say 7 percent.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE6AP20520101126
You're overly optimistic, things will be placed neatly where they belong and it will be business as usual... I hope I'm wrong.
Isn't it true that these Irish loans will never be repaid, just like our debt will never be repaid? Why are these people living in this fantasy world?
Check out these Irish Economy threads [2], including the comments. Basically the answer seems to be that this kind of program (no-one's done the figures on the package actually announced yet afaics) is just manageable for Ireland given continued austerity and modest but uninterrupted economic growth over the next 3+ years. Ireland can probably do the austerity; it's the growth I'd be less confident about...
Get ready for liftoff.
Ground Control to Uncle Ben
Ground Control to Uncle Ben
Take your pomo pills and put your helmet on
Ground Control to Uncle Ben
Commencing countdown, engines on
Check ignition and may John Maynard Keynes love be with you
Ten, Nine, Eight, Seven, Six, Five,
Four, Three, Two, One, Liftoff
This is Ground Control to Uncle Ben
You've really made the grade
And the papers want to know whose shirts you wear
Now it's time to leave the capsule if you dare
"This is Uncle Ben to Ground Control
I'm stepping through the door
And I'm floating in a sea of pomo
And the markets look very different today.....
THE SPRINGSTEEN OMEN
Over the years, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International has made some great comparisons between mass social mood, financial markets, and the mood of music and movies. He's presented exhaustive analysis on how music and movie themes align with the mass social mood of the people. As I was reading articles about Springsteen's upcoming re-release of "The Darkness" record, I started to wonder how the timing of both releases would present itself in relation to the financial markets." http://www.businessinsider.com/the-springsteen-omen-2010-9I subscribe to Prechter, among 10 others of differing philosophies. My take on him is that when he finally is right, he will be so damn right that it will overshadow by 1,000,000 times all the times he's been wrong.
Prechter has lost millions for the sheeple that have gone in hidding over 2 years.
His " Go to Cash" / Short calls have been brutal.
CAT from 35.00 to 90, Apple,GE,LVS, he missed everything, hes a perma moron.
let's not forget his gold calls.
But how much of your money can go into Gold unless you already have tons of cash. If I had 1 million in cash sure I would have 20% in Gold.
We have had defaults before, muni bust, everyone thought this was the big one. But after 12 trillion in bailuots/backstops/puts the dollar has moved from 85 - 80 in 5 years.
Everyone is tied in with uncle bens dollar web. The phone will keep ringing looking for more, hello ben I need more dollars ...... O.K. no problem.
The house of Saud' just bought 60 Billion in weapons her friends (Bahrain ect .....) another 80 Billion. The dollar/Oil peg is not changing anytime soon.
The Shadow Banking System Trillions in new debt/credit/ issued in dollars........
The third development was the emergence of deregulated global financial markets after the Cold War that made cross-border flow of funds routine.
ECB Assets (as at January 1, 1999):
1. Gold - €99,598,000,000
2. Foreign currency claims outside the Eurozone - €230,342,000,000
Total reserves at ECB MTM concept innauguration - €329,940,000,000
Gold proportion of the Eurosystem's reserves on Jan. 1, 1999 - 30% (30.19%)
Conclusion: During the last decade of the Bretton Woods "experiment", 1958-1968, gold failed to produce new international liquidity and fell from 66% --> 51% as a proportion of international reserves. But during the FIRST decade of the Freegold (ECB MTM FLOATING gold price) "experiment", gold has risen from 30% --> 60% of the Eurosystem's (international liquidity) reserves.
Think on this one for a while. It deserves at least that.
1958-1968 - 66% --> 51%
1999-2010 - 30% --> 60%
And where do you think it might be going?
1999-->2010-->201_ - 30% --> 60% --> 9_%?
The more dollars Bernanke hands out, the higher the gold price will go which instantly grows the Euro systems international liquidity reserves. Just like I said before, the ECB has the Fed/IMF hostage.
By the time Bernanke is done bailing out Europe, the amount of dollars in circulation will finanally reach its breaking point and the dollar will breath its last.
King Euro !
The Euro ....
Euro = Toilet Paper.
Something a 3rd grader can understand ......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5D0VhS8qXT0
All the jobs lost around Europe going to Germany.
Spain unemployment 20%
Austerity = Slowdown. How are they(pigs) going to get the money to pay back all the loans/debt.
Or ...
Before the launch of the euro in 1999, Milton Friedman predicted that the Eurozone would not survive its first economic crisis.
He noted that in a world of floating exchange rates, if one country faces a shock, it could simply respond by letting the exchange rate change. But with the arrival of the euro, that option is no longer available.
Mr. Friedman also highlighted the case of Ireland. In 2001, he said the country should have been tightening its monetary policy but couldn’t because it was tied into the new European currency. “The European Central Bank makes monetary policy for the whole of euroland.”
In the absence of currency flexibility, analysts say competitiveness can only be regained through real economic adjustment such as labour reductions and downward wage adjustment.
With the euro now more than a decade old and it being the official currency of 16 out of 27 European Union member states (known as the Eurozone), a global recession is in full force and the Nobel Prize-winning economist’s theory is being put to the test. The financial crisis has made the merits of membership in the Eurozone a hot topic, even if few think a break-up is actually possible.
The logistics involved with a country pulling out or being kicked out are staggering. Some say this would make it even more expensive for such a nation to pay off its debts, while the damage done to its trade could have serious ripple effects. Others have called the euro a “one-way door,” suggesting any renegade country would almost surely face a run on its banking system.
Read more: http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/tradingdesk/archive/2009/03/12/was-milton-friedman-right-about-the-euro.aspx#ixzz16bn1Tc1Z
Looks like the market is doing its usual, and steering everyone in exactly the wrong place.
What the world needs now is recapitalization through true, international liquidity. The kind that can only come from the MTM revaluation of true reserves. And when I say needs, I am talking about the kind of need that is a constant, not a variable. In other words, it is a fixed need that all other variables must, will and do conform to, one way or another, manipulated or not.
The real world is undergoing recapitalization through austerity and savings, the old fashioned way. And the commercial banking system is recapitalizing the newfangled way, by taking on unlimited debt liquidity(US dollars) and leveraging it to look good on the surface. And the central banks are prepared for whatever comes. As their dollar foreign reserves go up in smoke, their gold reserves will more than replace any lost value. And as this happens, that gold percentage will rise from 30% to 65% to 90+%.
As a bit of corroborating evidence, I would again point out that the European’s quarterly MTM revaluations on June 30 took place in a distinctly favorable environment — with gold prices residing near record high levels, thus allowing the gold portion of the European central banks’ reserves to strengthen the books at this critical juncture with a chart-topping €65.4 billion quarterly gain.
What was the Feds quarterly gain ? Zero, because under the Fed system, gold is a competing currency.
Dueling toilet paper wars. Hmmm...
Yes, I think this is how the coming economic debacle will be sold in the media: a race to the bottom, with every nation trying to devalue their currency and remain a net exporter. But really it's all about a shift in power, and the most powerful nation won't necessarily be the one with the most money; it will be the one that gets to decide what will be used as money.
Spitz, what's your take on the swap lines between the Fed and ECB? Our involvement in the Euro bailouts is providing a tangible benefit to them under their MTM/freegold mechanism, so I can't believe there's not something in it for the Fed other than extortion.
Fed is buying time for the $IMF system. If the euro really crashes the euros go to Freegold, killing the $ reserve currency.
I think it could be Bernanke's call.
Maybe he is worried about deflation contagion from Europe, so in his mind, he is saving the US from deflation by propping up Europe.
Never underestimate the power of the Bernanke put
Never underestimate the ability of the Fed to phuck up.
They've got a proven track record.
So, how much money have you made by following Prechter's advice?
For the record, I subscribe as well. But I find his views fatally flawed per se. They can be useful, though, with modifications and a large grain of salt.
But the proof is in the money.
Good question.
I avoided destruction in 2002 and 2008, not because of following Prechter, but because of my own beliefs. I read inflationists (Faber,Dines etc..) as well as deflationists (Prechter,Shilling etc..)
I think where all of these guys fail is obvious: they all report on what they think should logically occur.
Even the guy I respect the most, Taleb (author of Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, who does not have a newsletter ) got burned furiously when he said earlier in the year that to short the Ten Year UST note was the most obvious trade. It was approaching 4% at the time-you know what happened next.
Amen to making your own calls. All these guys have to be looked at as nothing more than data points. You can trade around their theses, but finally, the market makes the calls so you better be on its side most of the time.
Here's how Prechter's trading advice has done from 1/1/85 through 5/31/09 versus the broad U.S. stock market average (Wilshire 5000 index) according to Hulbert's analysis:
Annualized Return:
Wilshire 5000 Index + 9.7 percent
Prechter's Trading Advice -15.4 percent
Total Return:
Wilshire 5000 Index + 857.1 percent
Prechter's Trading Advice - 98.3 percent
The underperformance of Prechter's newsletter is nothing short of astonishing and stunning! On an annualized basis, Prechter has underperformed the broad U.S. stock market Wilshire 5000 index by a whopping 25 percent per year! Here's what Hulbert's analysis shows would have happened to $100,000 invested according to Prechter's investing trading advice versus the Wilshire 5000 U.S. stock market index:
$100,000 Invested (1/1/85-5/31/09):
Wilshire 5000 Index $957,100
Prechter's Trading Advice $1,700
...
So ummm ......gulp' .... Prechter works for Goldman ?
+1. Thanks for posting that.
No, according to Prime Minister Cretien, The proof is in the proof.
You subscribe to Prechter? Gordon, Gordon, where is Gordon? :)
Just the "Theorist." No trading packages, not interested....
He will then argue that he was never wrong, only early. By years.
But Prechter probably is probably sitting in 100% Euro's because there is more debt distruction happening in Europe, thus probably pushing the Euro to a double in the near future.
What is Prechter's claim to fame? Isn't it he got lucky and guessed about right on the 1987 stock market crash?
He's made some other good calls. Most lately, about the bottom in 2009, before they changed the Mark-to-Market rules, and the Banks subsequently took off. He also called the top back in April.
He's also notably missed-by-a-mile on some others. About a year ago, he was heavily pushing his subscribers into shorting the market. Really heavily. Ouch! I'm glad that I didn't listen to him then.
He'll also couch his language vaguely enough at times so that he can point back and claim victory. Hello? It would have been nice if he was more clear at the time. Very much like what Astrologers do. He's learned well from experience there.
People made money off Joe Granville, then when the market turned in the early eighties, they lost their asses.
The life cycle of a prophet: today you're a hero, tomorrow you're a bum.
Friedman and Keynes both make profound contributions. It is the application of their theories by political whores and banking criminals that has skewed predictability.
So the question becomes- when confronted with purported "facts" who is on the other side of the trade ? That is the only question.
The short term update at EWI has been calling for dollar strength and Euro weakness for over a month. They caught the reversal, but not the wave count. They have been predicting an equities sell off to below 10000 Dow for months.
I decided to dump them when they changed the wave count on the updates after the market exceeded the yearly high.
Lesson learned: sentiment, p/c, and technical indicators are only suggestions of what could happen. The real deal in trading is catching the trend early and dumping it early when it's over.
Case in point: Prechter & Co. got dumped from my trading methodology. Jeffrey Kennedy with the commodity updates has been on target, however, and elliot wave theory is definitely useful, but the king of trading indicators is the moving average. No one knows the future.
investing based on the sentiment of sheep is why prechter has failed thus far... in fact, its why the OPPOSITE has happened. his social model bases investment decisions on the direction of the herd. i would wager the darker movies, culture, and television get, the HIGHER gold and the stock market goes.
Goldman FX at Odds with Jim's Asset Management
Quote Jim O'Neill in the Telegraph
"The euro deserves a risk premium - it is expensive compared to fair value. I think fair value for the euro is €1.20 against the dollar and anyone buying it 10pc above that is not very sensible."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8164914/...
At odds with Goldman's 1.55 Stolper call....
"we believe EUR/$ remains very much on track for the projected trajectory of 1.40 in 3mths as well as 1.50 and 1.55 in 6 and 12 months."
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/despite-crumbling-europe-goldman-sticks...
'Who is there to buy'. I have been asking that since Feb. and watched the market go up when EWI assholes told everybody to go big on the short side. Prechter told everybody to do it again just over a month ago. Wrong Again??? But the question is, who's buying? How about GS, JPM,C,WFC, Paulson and a few other hedge funds manipulating the market up by screwing the record amount of shorts. There is a very large number of shorts who have been covering and trying to short again. Just to rinse and repeat. That's why Goldman and others have only one day of bad trades. Give me a break. They control the market with Bernanke as a backstop. Criminal, you bet. Thieves, you bet. Will it stop. I don't think so. Print more Ben. The hidden tax the public does not understand.
Who is buying? Well how about momentum trading programs , instituted by the squid and others, using the baby boomer pension funds who are desperate to make back at least some of the money they lost in 2008. I promise you, part of the overall plan is to steal all, and I do mean, all of that money in order to leave the "middle class", poor and destitute and therefore without any power without any apparent options.
I thought according to what Prechter said they, (fund managers, ei, pension funds), are just about all in. They have no cash, so said EWI. While I do not disagree with your premise, I do question if now is the time. The public is not in.
I believe it will happen when everybody is a bull. So far, the herd is mostly short. Prechter should read his own shit before making bad calls. He sell his own ponzi scheme. Buy more to understand why I was wrong, but still right !?!
This will be my last posting of da playlist today. I do hope it found some of y'all well. Where you might have previously been having a Sunday that was not a funday, perhaps this can set a good mood
exhale (a playlist):
http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=BC8D4475D9DA7B4D
Good stuff, thanks Steak.
-
Korean war goes hot.
Dow/S&P tank,,,PM's ?
My guess is that PMs will jump because nobody really thinks they will.
Even if they don't, as 2008 showed us, there is no long term change in the trajectory of the US dollar and no long term change in the trajectory of the PMs. If PMs fall, it will be a buying opportunity of a lifetime.
The bots are ready to sell. Lots of golden paper floating around ..... All the traders/charts/ ugggg.
Lots of paper is right.
You know what is going to happen when the paper price drops like a stone ? There will be a dip buying frenzy out there looking for physical and all the remaining physical will get cleaned out in days.
As the paper price falls even more and the demand for physical goes even higher, there will be absolutely no physical available. That is when the COMEX goes bust, the LBMA goes bust and the GLD goes bust.
A new physical gold market will emerge, probably curtesy of the Bank for International Settlements in Switzerland.
What do you think the first print would be ? $5000 an oz ? $25,000 an oz ?
"Home sales are coming down from the mountain peak, but they will level out at a high plateau -- a plateau that is higher than previous peaks in the housing cycle.”
- David Lereah, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors
"There is no national housing market, so there can't be a national house-price bubble."
- Michael Youngblood, Managing Director, Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co
"People who talk about a bubble are blowing smoke,"
- Michael Carney, Real Estate Economist California State Polytechnic University Pomona.
Thursday, February 10, 2005
"When I hear [about a housing bubble] I get the sense that people aren't connecting the dots.”
- James Glassman, JP Morgan Chase Economist
Is so fitting for the elite to move toward gold at this point, the point where all the sheeple think they have this bubble thing figured out. Every man on the street is now a bubble expert.(there right in the middle of a fiat bubble without noticing, so I guess they are still novice)
Anyway, gold bubble callers have always been wrong for hundreds of years simply because gold never goes back to old lows.
When gold was $10 and went to 35 sure, it fell but it never went back to $10.
When gold went from $35 to $150 sure, it fell but in never went near $35 again.
When gold went from $150 to $800 sure, it fell but it never went to $150 again.
When gold goes from $1200 to 3,6, or 10,000 sure, its going to fall but do you really think its going to $1200 again ?
Gold 1/21/1980 .... $850.00
Gold 1/18/2001 .... $264.00
And the reason?.
$850.00,is Russia invaded Trashcanistan, and the World shit.
2001, the economy is smokin, and people are spending like crazy,no risk, USD is THE currency with limited Debt to GDP risk.
Everyone is happy(Sheeple).
And America wasn't on her knees getting Franked.
Now,the debt load is Unpayable, unsustainable, and the entire globe is unwinding.
Where else do you go?.
"...getting Franked." Priceless.
Dos-ya--he used to be my congresscritter, but we all continue to be used.
GO? nowhere, we are staying and "fighting" as well as we can on all fronts.
- Ned
Thats right, just like I said. Gold always makes higher lows.
When gold went from $35 to $150 (people that don't understand gold must have been screaming bubble then), even the people that bought at the supposedly frothy price of $150 still had a double after the bubble burst because the new rock bottom was $264.
That was not a true rock bottom anyway because Britain had their not-for-profit gold sales at that time. A more realistic bottom would have been around $350 or $400 which would also make todays price appear more realistic to the people that don't understand gold.
Wow. I was going to point this out to Spaulding...
I was really taken by how his counterpoint indicated either that he did not understand what you were saying, or like many people today, was not at all concerned with fact or truth.
What about the guy that bought at $820 in 80' sold in 88' got blowtorched.
or 1,420 in 2010.......... ?
Come on, why put this Robot "blowtorched" shit up? Are you another top caller @ $1420?
He's not talking about some guy...
He's talking about the price of gold.
I can use the same analog to demonstrate that "guy" is a dipshit by arbitrarily picking an in an out point of a certain stock or market.
What he says about Gold pricing is true historically mathematically. Period.
No qualifiers needed.
Try to analyze the statement he makes using a graph, and/or think of it as "a word problem".
Then you will see what he says is true, and you can make cogent arguments about why this will not hold true in the near future or some such nonsense.
Spaulding,
Are you a Climate Scientist, Drug Company Scientist, Attorney or some combination?
Your complete dismissal of the statement and misdirection in the rebuttal indicates some type of formal training in these areas.
Word.
Although again, reference must be made to the synthetic vehicles allowing speculation in gold to take place, which take it to (unnecessary) new highs each month.
Want to know the real VALUE of Gold & Silver?,shut down the ETF's, that are 100-1 short.
Then you would see a real price, and it would be impossible to find any to purchase at any price you would care to contemplate.
That's BEFORE the SHTF,the ultimate storm is coming, there is no way out this time.
Its inevitable.
Exactly. Paper price suppresses the real price. Gold is fractionalized in paper markets; t hey are selling gold that does not exist and cannot be delivered.
Spitzer
Amen,
I will be ready with all the cash I can get,(been waiting for this shot) it's really NOT in the interest for PM's to drop for the PTB.
IF, (a BIG IF), things were "normal", then it would be the right move.
There is no Normal anymore for the USA.
Enough people realize the dollar is toast, I do not care if it goes to 120,it will still be the Best of the Worst, and therefore not something to be in.Plus there's nothing saying it will not FOLLOW the USD UP,as it has tracked that way of late.
It's all about Preservation of Wealth,there are but a few items that fit that mold, and NONE that can hold it like Gold.
Spitz-
You are an original thinker.
What do you think of the point that oil is undervalued rel to gold, given a historical ratio of 12-15:1?
If we aren't seeing a true price for gold, why should we think we see a true price for oil?
10 year chart clearly shows silver breaking out of an inverse H&S pattern.
They tell us that North Korea are the bad guys in all of this. Could it be, that this is not the clear truth? Maybe the truth on all of this is a little more complicated than what we are being fed.
The leadership in North Korea has mental problems, seroiusly. Mr Kim is a mental case.
Its fairly clear that South Korea just wants to be left alone, the country is doing great.
Kim Ill is China's stalking horse to divert attention while robbing the West of liquidity.
NK is not going to do anything without tacit approval of Beijing.
it will be quite explicit to DPRK at many levels, no "implicit" involved. - Ned
Kim Ill is China's stalking horse to divert attention from their sucking liquidity out of the West.
NK doesn't do anything without tacit approval from Beijing.
If they launched several slbms out of the potomoc and put one into the Capitol while both houses were in session, one onto K street, and one up north into GS HQ, They would get more votes than Palin in the 2012 elections.
There ain't going to be no freakin war! If you read the print and not just the headlines, or ignore to the sound bites, it is obvious that all parties are working hard to come up with some bullshit to save face for everybody! There ain't going to be no freakin war!!!-at this time.
This is classic NK blackmail Part 74.
They pull this shit about every 12-14 mos, and the world caves, and sends them billions in aid, and thousands of tons of food(not to feed the starving population), but the military.
They use the money to build an even larger arsenal, and we like Pavlovs dog, continue to play the game.
Time to call their bluff.China is as bad, they work the system to the benefit of NK, as they let others pay the ransom.
Time to tell Kim Mentally Ill Sung, to start it, so we can finish it in one day.This shit is WAY past old.
------------
I don't know anything, but I understand this...thank you.
e.
If you understand this, you know more than most. Perhaps you even know more than a President or two.
"[A]side from the Primary Dealers, the HFT momentum traders who have no balance sheet, and the Federal Reserve: who is there to buy?"
I think you answer your own question.
Primary Dealers and the Federal Reserve will buy in a coordinated fashion. They are already manipulating the hell out of this market so this is just more of the same.
I'm personally mostly in mining companies anyway, none of which appear on the list of companies with insider selling. Even if there is a crash, the companies I own make things that are real and will be the first to recover.
I hope.
AAPL not on list if I reviewed it correctly.
I was wondering why MSFT only shows 24.5 million insider shares dumped. I thought Steve Balmer unloaded 75 million shares by himself earlier this month.
Corporations are most likely hoarding money so they can do what Enron did ... let upper management grab as much of the cash as they can before the corporation declares bankruptcy.
P.S. Does anyone know if "insider buying" includes the gifting of stock to upper management? Many corporations award stock at a cost of zero dollars to upper management, whereupon it is "insider sold" for some easy money.
There are degrees of smart money. Very smart money already got out at the top. The sell happened over in Asia markets where lots of very smart money was working and selling has been sharp. Plain vanilla Smart money has been draining out steadily ever since with risk-on indices deflating and risk-offs inflating. Interestingly and following a growing trend, gold has been acting as a destination for risk-off money. Growing currency and inflation anxiety will do that (and some other factors as well). QE2 has not been the lollipop the Fed was hoping for to juice market spirits as it's reaching the point of diminishing returns with the fear of inflation.
Yes and no. All major players are constantly hedged so they love any double-digit ES move to either way. They make way more than they would being naked and hoping on a particular direction.
best way out of all of this just send the chinese 1 trillion dollars
in monopoly money with a note saying fuck you inbred slaphead gooks.
For the time being a promise will have to do!
BTW, I totally agree with you. Fuck 'em all. Won't be easy, however.........
word, but not...quite...yet.
we go down, we're taking those pinko fukkers with us.
Who's left to buy?
Barry Ritholtz, who today writes: "Despite the U.S. economy growing (5 Qs in a row), improving data, and a stock market making two-year highs, to some people, things are still bad and getting worse..."
Incidentally, he goes on to discuss some "other" blogs populated with "zombie bears".
“They will not admit the economy is getting better, albeit slowly,” Ritholtz wrote this week on his widely read economics and markets blog, The Big Picture. “They insist the recession was a depression; they insist it never ended. These are the bears who cannot be killed. They will stay bearish, regardless of the data that all but insists otherwise.”
Oh shit...I just noticed the headline to this ZH post was about "smart money". My bad, please disregard.
How could the numbers not go up with all the loose monetary policy worldwide?
When you wire a body up to 600 billion volts you should be able to at least make it jump before it bursts into flame :)
Not correct.
It will merely emit a popping sound as water heats instantly into steam and seeks escape from it's cellular prison.
Simultaneously it will become charcoal.
There won't be any muscle spasm... Just steam and char.
What these guys are doing is much more akin to Heroin use.
They have to keep taking bigger hits to get the same effect. All the while the toxicity levels of Opiod are building up their tissues, at an unknown point in the future, a very small dose of what has been "so good" to them in the past will be enough to put them over the edge and down into the darkness. The junkie does not know how close he is to the edge because his mind is warped by the junk.
Soon Nature will take it's course, and issue restorative actions to correct the imbalance.
That might be War, Famine, Disease or all of the above.
Remember, every Emperor, King, Dictate, Etc... All thought they "had it under control" right before they were vapor. Nothing has changed.
The Fed, Republicans, Democrats, Wall St, Goldman, etc. are all going to fade... Eventually somebody will be showering in a bathroom made from the marble of the "old Fed Building"...
Time cures all, just relax and let the shit slide.
That's how it should work. And that's how it would work too, if a large percentage of productive folks would simply "just say no" and stop being productive. Either move to some warm climate spot where it is inexpensive to live on their savings (Ecuador, perhaps)... or move to the boonies, spend savings on self-sufficiency systems, and relax until everything crashes.
Really, what you propose is the AtlasShrugged approach. That should work, but apparently the predators-that-be have sufficiently brainwashed so many [productive] people that the approach doesn't work (far too few go "on strike"). Thus the pain will drag out for a terribly long time, perhaps long enough for the predators-that-be to construct a fully functioning slave state (complete, total tyranny).
With machines doing more and more productive work, I suspect the predators-that-be are just itching for the day when they can kill off the vast majority of mankind, and let the machines take care of them.
Barry....Barry.....who Barry?
What's most interesting about Barry's remarks (and what he himself is missing) is that he's right! There are lots and lots of zombie bears out there. But that In Itself is an absolute shocker for America and a clear tell on the sate of affairs. Sentiment never reached these lows during all the crises, shocks and problems of the 1970s.
But the response has not been realistic or appropriate in terms of the real economy. That leads most people to believe that the situation isn't temporary.
I think too many people have finally realized it is all bullshit. If that makes someone a zombie bear, then I guess, so be it. Is it their fault if they don't have any trust in this system as George Carlin stated one time, a system that fucked them and then threw them overboard 30 years ago? What does Barry want us to do? Bow low and kiss the ring of these bastards? I think it is he, who has been in bed too long with CNBC and the other stock pumpers that is not smelling the coffee on all of this. Maybe he should move out of New York.
Right, Drifter.... does Barry have any clue that the so-called "evidence" and "data" etc are totally doctored by PTB to prevent panic? What an idiot
Price discovery has been denied for some time. I think it was here at ZH where I read a piece about collapsing markets will occur when natural forces are socially engineered away. When Mr. Market succombs it will over-correct as any good pendulum will. The bernanke put will be but a memory and true fear will overcompensate and absolutely rule the market. I only wonder how far into the muscle will that knife go?
-----------
".....fuck you inbred slaphead gooks."
Who you callin slaphead?
The very "events" that would bring about the "crash" are USD-negative and if you go into a USD crash, you simply trigger the Zimbabwe-effect and stocks will rally. What the bears REALLY need is an event that triggers the abandonment of the POMO's and the QE bullshit and moves fiscal policy from expansive to contractive - i.e. - really solid housing or unemployment numbers - but that ain't happening soon so you just rid yourselves of all FRN paper and load up on FRN-denominated assets like gold, silver, oil, copper and - oh yeah - this little junior mining stock I own called XXXXXXXXXX - oops - sorry about that got carried away.
NEVER underestimate the replacement power of stocks within an inflationary spiral. Much as I detest the Wall Street banksters, I detest FRN's (in fact all global fiat) even greater. Ergo, I would own E/S over FRN's any day. Cash is trash and anything other than banksta-paper is superb.
They don't necessarily have to be USD negative - in a vacuum, sure. When the Euro experiment finally gives way, the USD will soar. THAT, would send the USD up, up, and away tanking Mr. Market. China, overheated emerging mkts and soaring PM's will all have their say before this is over too. I'm just sayin.....
Who's there to buy?
Ben (I will save the system) Bermankie.
-----Tyler-------
A proud nail (not driven completely driven down) sticks out and is more likely to get hammered. IMHO the-- Maverick Capital, Ltd. received a subpoena-- retraction was too buried. You are in the radar and must keep clean skirts. A bolder retraction was in order. Heros gotta play by much more restricted rules. cheers for Tyler
FWIW, my thoughts as well. Doesn't hurt to have a 1 sentence main post on this on the FP.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yjr7NtntWeQ
zombie bears.. that's great. never go away follow you forever.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yjr7NtntWeQ
This is a nice video -- that I've seen about 32 times. Not sure about other folks but a cue as to the link's relevance (perhaps its title) in the comment would help me not to see it for the 33rd time. Just sayin'...
If someone actually told me what the guy tells the girl at the end of this video...
"I'll just Vote for someone who will take your XXX and give it to me"
I would beat their face in on the spot if they were lucky.
You see, the exact problem with the world is precisely that we do NOT beat the crap out of predators "on the spot" or otherwise.
should be refudiated....and by the way, another irrelevancey
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-29/banks-financing-mexico-s-drug-c...
Is smart money getting ready for a gigantic headfake?
If I thought this market was not totally rigged, I might attempt to formulate an opinion on the stock market based on this data.
good point...you have to play spy v. spy....see if your'e slick enough to be a double agent (or triple). Pretty tricky
ndx commercials are more short than in Oct 07. ! With the cot data it pays to watch extremes.