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Sneaky Post-Europe Close EURUSD Rally
The stock trading pattern, for those who may now have noticed it yet, is now all too clear: the market, completely oblivious to negative fundamentals such as GDP revisions, ECRI, NFP, Retail Sales, various Fed diffusion indices, only cares about the closing of Europe. From the moment Europe opens, the market takes a nosedive as the EUR is progressively weaker during the day. Literally the second Europe closes, the EURUSD surges as nobody in Europe is trading any more, with just various algorithmic bidders remaining in the market, as all revert to their buying bias as their headline fast reading/frontrunning abilities apparently do not extend to reading foreign languages. The second the USD is weaker, the market spikes, and the rest is history.
And lest you think today is an isolated incident, ovserve the constant plunge of the EUR at or about the moment Europe closes, and the subsequent bounce once Europe is out of the pciture. One would think if anyone, it would be Europe that has the best perspective on what the fair value of the EUR should be.
Alternatively, one way of looking at the data is that whenever each respective market is dominant, the only goal of market participants is to weaken their own currency: the EUR in the six hours ahead of US market open, and the USD whenever Europe closes.
As such a good trading strategy would be to short the EUR between 3 am and 11 am Eastern, then cover and short the USD until the close of trading, covering just before the closing bell.
h/t credittrader
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And some folks still wonder why no one has any faith in our "free markets" anymore...
sir the market is perfectly efficient !!!
what don t like jokes xD
Stop telling everyone about the secret to my trading success over the last 3 months!
somebody explain to me why algos always are set on buy?
if you had all the money you could want, and if god forbid you ran out, a quick phone call would refill your account, wouldn't you buy everything and anything?
That is life as an algo
no. I'd short the market and use the money for margin calls if i had to then short more and more and more. does not explain why algos are supposedly always buying
Upside in a stock is potentially infinite. The best you can do on the downside, ignoring any leverage, is 100%. Clearer now?
Exactly.
Simple. When they wanted to crash it they set the algos on sell in 2008. They control the entire market. Now that they bought everything at 666 they want to hold the market hostage and try to keep the ship together for the recovery in 20 years
Get ready to see the 2008 play book again. The game is over without their precious gov. funding. Gov. funding is over without low yields. This bs weak FinReg prolly came with a price tag to drive the market down so Gov. can continue their ginormous debt roll. Others have said it as well... you can't have your cake and eat it too.
maybe if the market go down too much, they no get free money?!
It's called survivorship bias, Goldman, JP Morgan, MS, WFC,C and BAC want to survive this economic downturn in order to build a better future...:=) Of course PPT is at work, that means the 4 investment banks that didn't realize one trading day loss in the Q1 2010.
It's all about skim for those who can play. The Feral Reserves' inflation policies force J6P to save in the stock market w/o any knowledge--just trust Wall Street/Buy&Hold/LongTermEveryoneWins--and that creates a whole pile o' loot. And when there's loot, there's piratin' ta be done!
All this give us time to prepare for the inevitable. TD, we enjoy your guidance, support and truth.
Kewpie Doll: A woman with a cute face and nice hair but no tits. Often short, but not a requirement. Frequently employed as a television NILF, where all they need to show is the woman's face to attract viewers.
For a visual aide: see Melissa Lee
Erin Burnett...
She's more like a Snow Bunny
Let's see here, Q1 GDP pump by the government was lowered, so I wonder now that things are even worse, what Q2 brings to the table? Close to ZERO? That's my bet. But the government of course will lie to the upside again. I mean really, they can always lower it later without anyone paying attention.
Tyler, oil spiked apparently because of weather forcast. By WTF is happening with copper. There has been a copper rally of 3% today, despite the bankruptcy and inevitable implosion ow western society. WTF ? Industiral metals are supposed to tank in a suckout. Are we now heading to stagflationary hyperinflation?
I have a gut feeling that today the equities market sells off into the close EURJPY or not.
Let's see if the Sep ES can trade up thru 1076. If not, you will probably be correct.
If we're just throwing around wild guesses, I'll guess the Dow finishes up over 100. It's Friday and the shorts always squirm going into the close on Friday, G20 this weekend so need to advertise success, financial 'reform' bill compromise so need to advertise success, strong UMich # so need to advertise success, Fed meeting was this week so need to advertise success. Hell, we might finish up over 200! Disclosure: I have no $ in the market.
Watch AAPL, I posted why below.
You may be right.
I'm wondering what eventually blows this whole market apart. How long will this directionless market continue? It just flails around folowing carry.....what could bust it apart?
only this time they are also using liquidity seeking algorithms to unload in a very controlled way
__
"...and these people intend to run off
billions of dollars of this currency.
- They wanna obliterate their debts.
- What debts?
Well, all these countries, Shel, they
all owe billions of dollars to the West.
They can never pay it back.
They're too poor. You know that.
Their only hope is worldwide inflation,
but it has to be a huge one.
I mean, so big that paper money's not
worth anything. You use it for wallpaper.
Now, once they get these plates,
the ones that I robbed yesterday...
...which is American dollars,
now they're all set.
Set for what?
What do you think will happen
when they run off this dough...
...and there's trillions of extra dollars,
francs and marks floating around?
You've got a collapse of confidence
in the currency.
People are gonna panic. There's
gonna be gold riots, atonal music...
...political chaos, mass suicide.
Right? It's Germany before Hitler.
You can see that.
Jesus, I don't know
what people are gonna do...
...when a six pack of Budweiser
cost $ 10,000 oo.
That'll be awful.
- You think I'm bullshitting?
- No, I don't.
- They thought I was bullshitting!
- Who thought that?
The CIA.
I told them. I said, 'Fellas, the thing
to do is to rob the U.S. Mint.'"
___
movie trivia
Just to prove to ZH that life does imitate art.
__
I have a gut feeling that today the equities market sells off into the close, EURJPY or not.
With the media coverage of Apple's iPhone 4 fuck-up gathering momentum, I also think AAPL liquidation starts en masse today ahead of the weekend, which will no doubt see mobs of angry customers returning their $700 iPhones that look great but can't make or receive calls. Steve Jobs' attitude towards this problem is making things even worse.
An AAPL sell-off alone may be a good enough catalyst that brings down the whole market.
I thought I saw something that said Apple was telling people to hold the phone differently to get reception - I fucking laughed out loud - really? is that all I have to do? And to think, I've been doing it wrong all these years...
http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=949790 http://www.engadget.com/2010/06/24/apple-responds-over-iphone-4-reception-issues-youre-holding-th/ http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2365658,00.aspAn AAPL sell-off alone may be a good enough catalyst that brings down the whole market.
I'm counting on it.
buy SDS on opening and late day ramps. or not.
45 more minutes...
Since the fundamentals are absent, everyone rushes to the exist at about 2 - 2:30 PM eastern time. Sometimes 3, however 3 might be too late.
Soccer euphoria is almost over (number of EU players are out), huge cracks in EU decision making process, deteriorating fundamentals... I think I'll load on to some puts @ 3 going into the weekend. :)
Hollywood Pasts...
"Goldman Sachs is to take part-control of a host of Hollywood blockbuster movies, as part of a deal to allow Harvey and Bob Weinstein to reclaim the helm at Miramax" - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandtelecoms/media/7855021/Weinstein-brothers-pay-off-115m-of-debt-with-films.htmlAAPL is telling us the mkt will fall to the close
Apple is telling us that gravity is REAL.
SPY prob red by 2:45
Man, that EURJPY chart looks like a ball bouncing down some stairs. It does keep bouncing, but each bounce ends up a little lower than the previous one. Still, looks like a bit to go before hitting the ground floor.
As noted yesterday by Tyler, ES-AUDJPY correlation is again 100%
That's just baffling to me. Are there seriously trading desks whose sole directive it is to make sure asset classes correlate with each other? I've known of the existance of correlation desks but never really understood their function.
Head and Shoulder bottom potential on VXX, possible Right Shoulder forming now.
My wild ass guess cant be much worse than goldmans high falutin analysis, so here goes: SP has one last volumeless melt up left in her until the algos just cant find a brian-dead investor out there, and the carry-trade de jours go kaput.
This wont be long, anywhere from 1108 to 1165 tops. The hedgies all start easing to the exit door, prentending to check out a nearby painting.
CNBC will run Dick Bove pumping the banks and Cramer advising buy buy buy.
Goldman will make another fake long euro call.
Then down we go to 930-978ish.
Gotta sell QE 2.0 ya know!
The EURO buying support continues so far...
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