So About That Speculative, And Undisputed, Silver Bubble...

Tyler Durden's picture

Lately, everyone and their grandmother speaks with 100% conviction that over the past week what happened in the silver market was nothing but a speculative bubble popping. After all, 5 consecutive margin hikes would mean that uber-levered terrorist speculators must have been scrambling with the urgency of an E-trade baby checking his voicemail and getting 99 margin call messages. So certain seems to be conventional wisdom in this allegation that nobody appears to have even checked the facts. Well, we did. For that we went to the usual place that provides a definitive breakdown of speculative indications: the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report, and specifically the non-commercial specs which after netting shorts from longs would be expected to be at some parabolically unseen level ever in the history of the CFTC. Much to our surprise we found this...

Yes: according to the CFTC, the level of non-commercial net longs in silver is, in the week ending May 3, at the lowest since July 28, 2009. So while one could speculate that silver may have been in some pseudo-bubble back in October 2010, when net specs hit over 50,000 contracts, the most recent reading of 23,354, which is merely the latest in a downward sloping trend starting in February, alas throws a lot of very cold water over the whole silver bubble popping thesis.

And yes, going forward we urge readers to always check with primary sources such flamboyant claims as those uttered every single day by the CNBC peanut gallery about record this and bubble that. Oddly enough, nobody on CNBC will ever mention that the one true bubble continues to be in stocks, where the net speculative leverage on the NYSE as expressed by surging margin debt total and declining positive investor net  worth, is at the second lowest ever, meaning investors are more levered into the beta rally than just one time in history: the very peak of the credit/housing bubble in 2007!

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CPL's picture

It's not speculation when it has become a real currency that trade, goods and services are now being traded for.

fuu's picture

Silver bitches!

Ahmeexnal's picture

Now that the terrorist Kuato has been killed, the world is a safer place.

laserjock's picture

C'mon Cohagen you got what you want -  Give these people air!

TwoShortPlanks's picture

*Asuming you weren't being sarcastic in citing Kuato*

The greatest threat to global security is US Foreign Policy. Time for people to wake-up and realise that if it wasn't Bin Laden (or Sadam Insane) it would have been some other person, or some other excuse to wage war.

Here's just one of many real reasons why the US is currently a walking Zombie;

Of course, the more Full Retard Knuckle Dragging Neanderthals that are out there hypnotised by 'So You Think You Can Dance' or 'CSI-Everywhere', the less crowded it is for me.

For a country that raves-on about how intelligent they all are, it sure is taking a long time for the Arm Chair Academics to see the bloody obvious.

Fuck turning-on the "Air", let them suffocate; it's more humane than letting them live their lives in the manner in which they do.

agNau's picture

I believe the weapon of mass destruction of Sadam Hussein was accepting only Euro's for his oil. And I believe Libya's Kadaffy was as well. Lot's of hatin on Iran.....wonder if they are doing the same?! It truly would be a destructive weapon, just like all those terrorist's buying physical silver.

WeekendAtBernankes's picture

You think this is the real Quaid?


It is.

Don Quixotic's picture

Tell me where this is... because I definitely haven't seen anywhere I can go buy a burrito for a bit of silver.... yet.

UGrev's picture

Pay in dimes.. ?

sorry, I'm being pedantic. 

Keri at Bankster Report's picture

Forgive me if this was already posted, but here's Peter Schiff explaining why gasoline is at an "all time low:"

Dimes, indeed.

dussasr's picture

Don, come to my house.  I'll make you a nice burrito for 1 oz of silver.  Hell, I'll even throw in a Dos Equis for you to wash it down with!

VegasBD's picture

argentina, or any country who's currency has been destroyed recently

N_Jones's picture

Utah has already passed a preliminary bill through congress to allow federally minted gold and silver coins to be accepted as currency at their weight value and not just their face value. Colorado and South Carolina also have similar bills in their respective houses.

Jendrzejczyk's picture

Come to my house. I'll sell you one hell of a big burrito for your silver.

Creed's picture

a note to the Tylers

since installing IE 9 today I have to hit disable rich text to be able to post

Calmyourself's picture

If you can tell me how to get this crap IE9 off my computer and go back to 8 I'll buy you a burrito.. Same problem here..

gosseyn's picture

First, Dbl click My Computer.  Click Help > on the menu bar click Help and Support Center.  Under the Additional Resources header, click System Restore.  Create a Restore Point.  After that completes, exit.

Then click > Start > Control panel > Add or Remove Programs.  When the list updates, scroll down to Windows Internet Explorer 9 and highlight it.  Click Remove.

Fee:  one thin pre-1965 dime:  .07 oz silver ~ $2.60 at current levels.  You can Paypal me.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

slewie losing it over the pic!  awesome!

bigkahuna's picture

I just use Chrome and Firefox now. To heck with IE.

fredquimby's picture

Yeah I have to do that on my ipad too. A bloody disgrace. I will eat it if you don't do something TD.

20smoney's picture

I think silver trades massively lower towards $20 before resuming a long-term climb.  Near term could be ugly.  Long physical.  Sold all my paper silver above $43.

bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

whats with all this silver talk thing? Isnt there a royal wedding to talk about still?


CPL's picture

I for one welcome the new prince into the Kingdom of Tongo of polynesia, may he be as honest and noble as his King.

Long-John-Silver's picture

The other brother is still a bachelor.

Piranhanoia's picture

I just found out,  the cake was made of silver and gold and as small as those colonoidal microparticles and nanobytes were, it was too much weight for their weakened inbred DNA and they all collapsed into a rich jelly. Oh,  and the proles lived happily ever after.

Harlequin001's picture

Nobody puts on a show like the British, eh...

bigkahuna's picture

Anyone who spends other peoples' money will gladly put on one heck of a show.

Ronium's picture

Bought me a bunch on sale last week!

tickhound's picture

Good... glad someone did.  With all the "run for the hills", CRash, sky is falling, suddenly the fundamental trend of hard goods is shot, foflack... Ray Charles saw this bounce coming.  Freaking puzzies.

camaro68ss's picture

Cool, so when is the SHTF happening? I still need to get a few more supplys.

CPL's picture

It's been cancelled until a lot of people die.  Until then think of it as hedging inflation which should take care of that eventuality.

tmosley's picture

I'm sure Meth Man will come up with a good retort.

akak's picture

Oh, I'm sure that Methy is positively itching to dive in here and come back with a retort --- but I doubt very much that it will be a good one.  When has anything he has ever posted here on silver not been irrelevant, dishonest, disingenuous, or an outright lie?

For the record, though, I still like:

"Only $5 to dig from the ground."

"The shit is fucking everywhere!"

FriedEggs's picture

"It costs an average of $5.00/oz to produce the stuff..." Jon Nadler at the 1.50min mark.

I posted this link on another post, sorry for the repeat - but when i seen that famous line again, i remembered hearing something very similiar just today...hence the link again.

Lol, do you think that qualifies as the same thing (as 'only 5ive to dig from gound')?


Btw, nothing available for us Canadians on Kitco these days...



akak's picture

I saw that BNN interview with that snake bastard Nadler today too, and was so outraged that I sent the following letter to BNN:


Dear BNN,

I felt forced to write to you to express my dismay and disappointment at your willingness to continue posting interviews with the universally discredited Jon Nadler, and with your pretense of presenting him as an objective and honest analyst of the precious metals markets.

Given his abominable years-long record of being almost 100% incorrect in ALL of his bearish price predictions on gold and silver, I find it odd indeed that your network apparently believes that this person has any reputable standing in speaking on the precious metals markets.  Furthermore, given Mr. Nadler's well-known and  vile record of daily propagandizing against the precious metals, and in explicit favor of the financial and banking status-quo, often using near-hysterical histrionics in attacking the advocates of gold and silver ---- even to the point of repeatedly referring to them as "Radical Goldbug Extremists" --- I feel it would behoove your network, if indeed your desire is to present honest and reputable analysis instead of pro-Wall Street, pro-central banking disinformation, to re-examine your inclusion of the disingenuous anti-gold and anti-silver misinformation and deceptive propaganda spread by Jon Nadler.  While you may not be aware of it, he is literally nothing but a laughingstock among the entire precious metals and mining communities, and you only discredit yourselves by allowing him to disseminate his malicious half-truths, misinformation and outright lies on BNN.



JW n FL's picture

that is worth a trillion oz's of gold!

Aulieude's picture

+lots and lots

I was almost ready to propose marriage as I read your deliciously eloquent letter...and then I reached the signature and almost spat my wine onto my key board...very very funny!

Math Man's picture

I never lie, you guys just accuse me because you're too afraid to admit the truth.


It does only cost $5 bucks.

Primary silver mine cash costs remained relatively flat year-on-year, falling by less than 1 percent to $5.27/oz. from a revised $5.29/oz. in 2009.


The shit is every where.  1,056mm ounces supplied last year.  But only 35mm turned in to US Silver Eagles...  most of it is made in to shot for industrial users.   There are not shortages,  only refining bottlenecks.  Problem is most of it is made in to shot because that is how industrial users want it.


And backwardation has been caused by producer hedging...

Ahmeexnal's picture

Why don't you just go out and take a ride on your bike you idiot? Make that a bumpy ride without a seat.

Rynak's picture

Oh methman..... you're disappointing me. Recently i told some of your buddies, that he is a lazy slacker for recycling 2 month old posts (including 2 month old spotprices!), and that he should take you as an example, because you at least come up with new shit all the time....

.... and now THIS again?


Or were you in a crypted way just attempting to show some humor, by pulling a running gag?

tmosley's picture

You fucking moron.  If it really only costs $5, then production would have risen between 2009 and 2010 by more than 2.5%.  Why didn't it?

Because it really costs $5 plus the money recovered from all other mine products plus millions in capital plus millions in exploration costs.  You fucking retard.

fredquimby's picture

Language, language dear tmosely. No need to spit your dummy out because someone has a different opinion/angle/understanding of something!

From Hecla Mining: HL

What are Hecla's production costs of silver?:

For 2010, total cash cost per ounce for silver was a negative $1.46, net of by-products.. Total cash cost in 2011 is estimated to be approximately zero dollars per ounce of silver produced, net of by-product credits, based on current metals prices of $1,350 per ounce of gold and $1.05 per pound for zinc and lead.

Does Hecla have an hedged silver?:




tmosley's picture

Your point is what, exactly?

Three years ago (back when I still played around with paper), their net cost was something like -$7 per oz.  Guess what?  Demand for zinc and lead have not increased.  As such, silver production has only increased slightly, nd it moved their cost by $5 an oz.  They have only a little bit more room to move to produce more without higher demand for base metals.

Maybe you don't get it, but Math Man is a lying shill, and will say literally anything, misrepresent any fact or statement made by anyone in order to separate people from their silver.  He's not doing this out of the kindness of his heart.  He is doing it because he has an agenda.

Math Man's picture

Sorry Tmo, I only deal in facts.  Unlike you.

My agenda to protect people like you from losing their life's savings.

tmosley's picture

False facts are still facts, I guess.

Why did silver production only rise 2.5% in 2010? The price just about doubled, but they were only able to manage a 2.5% increase? I thought it only cost $5 to get out of the ground, and that it was "fucking everywhere".

But then, since you think a full water reservoir is the same as a flood, I'm not sure how anyone could expect you to have even the tiniest modicum of common sense.