So Much For Reduced Volatility - Commodity Complex Slides Again

Tyler Durden's picture

And following the overnight set of news which confirms our January assumption that the keyword of 2011 will be "stagflation" the entire commodity complex once again slides. It is unclear if the move is predicated more by fears of inflation or of economic contraction. After hitting almost $40 overnight, Silver has once again taken the daily tumble back to the sub $37 level. The catalyst today is crude, following the DOE announcement that crude inventories surged to 3,871K barrels on expectations of 1,500K, and Cushing inventory hitting 1,124K compared to 102K previously. WTI slides to sub $101, even with the latest series of margin hikes which purportedly is supposed to mitigate volatility. So much for that.

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Zing's picture

This is what you want backing the currency Tyler (gold)?

tmosley's picture

You prefer nothing?

You're like Wile E. Coyote, out over the cliff, making fun of the people who have built their homes on solid ground.  Living in the open air is fine, until the second you look down.  Then you're fucked.

Zing's picture

I prefer sovereign money with safeguards inplace, including limits on leverage. That is all that is needed.

 

http://www.swarmusa.com/vb4/content.php/194-Freedom-s-Vision-In-a-Nutshell

tmosley's picture

Yes, put your trust in the regulators.  The "right" regulation will fix everything.

~Go back to sleep, little sheep~

Don Quixotic's picture

+1 

Words on a paper [the law of man] are small consolation compared to a physical safeguard [the law of nature].

LowProfile's picture

Gold simply needs to trade freely, unencumbered by paper games.

Freegold is coming...  The world demands it!

What does it all mean's picture

tmosley, stop the disinformation.  You and ZH itself are not being fair, and leading idiots to slaughter house.  38-> 49 -> 34...  it is killing most "investors"

Traders like JPM/GS/Glencore/SAC are making hey on your expenses.  No, it is no going to zero, but it aint going to 100 either.

Good luck to all!

tmosley's picture

Uhhh, try 8->10->15->10->22->19->34->28->38->49->34

You don't know what you are talking about.

A year ago, how many people thought we would knock on the door of $50 silver?  I don't think you can deny that $100 is a possibility, ESPECIALLY without giving a time frame.

What does it all mean's picture

It was a staggering 26 points swing in 5 weeks.  At 36 right now, it can constitute a $10 basis.  Your timeframe is over 5+ years.  In 5+ years, it can go to 15 or 65, BUT NOT 100!  You don't know what you are talking about.

Come on, they will just hike it 6 more times....  

Stop lying to yourself.

The price path speaks for itself.  It is a TRADING instrument, not a investing instrument.  And for those of you thinking that it will go to $100, or $1000.  Then stop looking at the tape, because that is the only way it will materialize for you.  All points to the conclusion that Tmosley is doing a pump and dump or maybe even being paid by Glencore or one of those physical commodity sellers.

The last time that I checked, JPM Chase ATMs still dispense these fiat money, just fine....

tmosley's picture

Uhhh, you and I seem to be talking about different things.  I only encourage people to invest in PHYSICAL silver.  We don't give a shit about the spot price, because our premium on physical has EXPLODED.

Also, you don't get to tell me what my time frame is.  And that progression I wrote--it's 2.5 years, not 5.

You don't understand the dynamics of this market if you think there can't be a sudden run-up in price.  Hell, you are ignoring the fact that it ALREADY DID THAT ONCE.  Not a single one of the fundamentals have changed.  No reason to think it won't run up again, and stronger, especially as the COMEX creaks and groans under the enormous weight of it's open interest, even as it's foundations of registered metal are removed at a record pace.

And yes, I have been collecting a paycheck from some company I have never heard of for 2 and a half years to "pump" something that has been incredibly profitable for every person who bought, with not 1 out of 500 who invested on my word being down a penny, but indeed being up by hundreds of percent.

Your agenda is showing.

Reptil's picture

There's two types of buyers here. The traders, looking for volume (up or down), and the bugs, buying physical, for long term investments. Just like the MO of those two is different, so will the price of a leveraged SLV diverge from physical metal.

At some point, like always happened, the elastic band that is the dollar will break. Instead of saying silver cannot go to a 100, ask yourself how low in buying power US dollars can go....

Discussing this issue, as I've done all last week, is tiresome, since western traders can't imagine the end of the market conditions that have been in place the last 40-50 years. Yet, everything changes, all the time. TD or Tmosley don't have an agenda other than any of us (gain more of x). They just take the possibillity into account that it'll all turn into confetti... And so are a few others.. Me included.

Cheers!

Sophist Economicus's picture

Your timeframe is over 5+ years.  In 5+ years, it can go to 15 or 65, BUT NOT 100!  You don't know what you are talking about.

Really?   So your crystal ball is better than everyone elses?   Maybe you want to enact regulations or legislation to protect ZH readers from themselves - or the 'poor sheep being led to slaughter'?

You have a right to your own opinions, but your vision of the future is no better than anyone else here -- including a blind pig's.  

 

Sorry - you fail

 

What does it all mean's picture

My crystal for the last 5 weeks is clearly better than yours.

LawsofPhysics's picture

That is all fine and good if your lifespan is five weeks.  Mine is not.

What does it all mean's picture

I hope my lifespan is longer than that as well.  But who is to say that your crystal ball for the next 5 years is better than mine?  At least mine was right for the last 5 weeks.  That's it.  No more, no less.

tmosley's picture

I would look at the ones who were right the last five years.  And the five years before that.

Hmmm, I wonder, what group of people have been firmly correct over the last ten years?

Banjo's picture

What does it al: Go back 40 years buy gold or silver. See what it's worth today run the numbers.

If you went out and piled into Silver with your life fortune after a run up of over 160% poor you, probably deserver to be cautioned, NOTHING GOES UP IN A STRAIGHT LINE and corrections are healthy for a bull market. I was concerned that we would see a blow off too early in silver. This pullback is actually good to establish a new base to build and launch on.

My prediciton is ending of QE2 with massive and i mean MASSIVE pullbacks in dollar values of stocks, commodities flight to bonds. Leading to two outocmes

  • Govt esentially keeps economy depressed
  • Govt prints like crazy and inflates.

Good investing to you sir.

JW n FL's picture

Synthetic Tops in Commodities Provided by the CFTC to the detriment of Americans and Betterment of “People’s Republic of China”!

 

Every time the CFTC releases its Margin Hike Press Release after hours here in the United States.. China gets to front run the Fucking Dip!

 

It is not bad enough that the idiots who back test blindly will cause artificial drag on the market with the Synthetic Peaks that have been provided to them, the algo’s can NOT even grasp the concept and for the most part the people who are programming are going to favor the numerically correct solution based on the larger law of averages..

 

But an American Commission, that is supposed to protect Americans.. is empowering China to once again have the upper hand?

 

What the FUCK?

 

Our Government has given China enough freebies for the week! And last week and pretty much going forward for-fucking-ever!

 

I hate stupid people! I hate the stupid Government that allows 50,000 jobs to go to China a MONTH! Now China gets to front run the downward pressure in Metals which benefits CHINA! Which is a foreign Power! More than the Americans it is supposed to help in the long run!!

 

TREASON! IS FUCKING TREASON!!

 

Senate Republicans blocked a Democratic Bill to End tax Breaks for Moving U.S. Jobs Offshore! 50,000 Manufacturing Jobs a Month since 2001 have LEFT! The United States for China! http://goo.gl/6qhnK

 

How much more are we going to have to give China? When is enough stupidity enough? This Country is FUCKED! And no one gives a shit! Everyone wants to pray for the rapture or live the lie of the Treasury! And where in the FUCK are the people charged with securing the national Security of the Country? Those mother fuckers are the First ones that should be hung for treason.. going back 30 – 40 years!

StychoKiller's picture

"'Tis death to counterfeit", is NOT just a man-made law, but a natural one -- sooner or later, Mother Nature is gonna demand REAL payments on mankind's easy money users -- NO fiat will be accepted!

Slim's picture

You know, while I agree with everything you've said here (and I do acknowledge other alternatives) - I really question why you need to take shots and make condescending remarks toward someone that holds a different point of view.  Personally, the last thing I want is to surround myself with a bunch of confirmation bias info and yes-men all day long, simply no value in ego stroking.  It is valuable to constantly challenge your own opinions and continue to update yourself on the arguments of others holding a different or even directly opposing view.  One of the things that has kept me safe in this world is thinking for myself and not ever completely trusting anyone or anything, and that includes my own point of view (likely the single most important risk management foundation you can have). 

My 2 cents anyway, it's not meant to make less of you or your argument but meant to encourage you to see the value in keeping an open mind and not ever fully settling on a single view point.  Take it for what you will.

What does it all mean's picture

I agree with you 100%.  ZH itself and people like Tmosley simply have a hidden agenda.  The price path speaks for itself!

+1

Imminent Crucible's picture

Tmosley has a hidden agenda? What about you--you're a totally disinterested casual observer? TM is pretty in-your-face with his hidden agenda.

Here's something you might have missed: The PMs have been in a huge decade-long bull market. Buying silver at $4.25, as I did, is "investing". Buying it in paper like SLV, at $48 after a 9 mo. run from $18, is not investing. It's momo speculation.

Here's something else you missed: When five margin hikes hit silver and forced out the leveraged longs, where did it go? It hit the 35-36 level and bounced. 

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$SILVER

So we know that the paper momentum crowd didn't pile in until after silver had roughly doubled from 18 to 35 or so. So the question you have to ask yourself is, what took silver from $9 in October 08 to well past $30, where the paper fools rushed in?

When you figure out the answer to that question, you'll stop braying about the silver bubble.

What does it all mean's picture

Yes, I have no silver position and not planning to do anything in it.  

I do think people like you need to realize that a 300% return is the same as buying S&P back in March 2009.  No big deal.  The correction will hurt you more, and if Silver goes back to $5, maybe I will think about buying it.  Everybody has an agenda.  But I truly don't own/short silver right now. (or the past 3 weeks.)

I do see that ZH always gloat when silver is up, and crying foul when they hike the margins.  Clearly biased.  So be careful people.  Something is fishy here.  Not exactly a biasefree news source when it comes to the PMs.

fuu's picture

"I do see that ZH always gloat when silver is up, and crying foul when they hike the margins.  Clearly biased. "

 

Oh that is just precious right there.

Reptil's picture

Of course they have their preferences. Who doesn't? I'll tell you... robots with remote control don't. (I.o.w. most of the human population in the "free" west)

The "paper game" cannot be won, since the game is rigged. This can be proven with facts (in case you're not really reading ZH). I presume, and read a valid desire for a free and unmanipulated market in the articles presented here. PMs as they're tangible objects, are impervious to the "paper game", but the derivatives of iSilver are not. If you or anyone doesn't understand this concept, I'd suggest you read up on what currency actually is, and what any currency must be to become valid. It's a means of valuing your wealth for one. The dollar certainly doesn't anymore (despite Nixon's assurances). Because that's what we have to go on... Nixon's assurances.

Draw your own conclusions...

NidStyles's picture

You crying about Bias, while advocating your lack of it. Then you say everyone has it.

 

Tacit support is still support, no matter the methology behind it.

Reptil's picture

huh?? your post doesn't make sense.

I'm not crying about anything. Posting one's opinion on the internet I hardly call "support".

What do you think? That we're that stupid, to just believe anything at face value?

:-)

tmosley's picture

I do think people like you need to realize that a 300% return is the same as buying S&P back in March 2009.  No big deal.

lolwat?  The absolute low was 735.  It's not even up 100% from that VERY SPECIFIC time frame.

Also, I think it's HILARIOUS that a shit-eating troll like yourself is trying to call people who deal in REAL numbers "biased".  "Herp a derp, if it goes back to $5 I'll buy."  What kind of stupid shit is that?  Your profile says you have been here for more than a year, but you can't see the dollar debasement?  THAT is some obvious assed bias right there.

You've tried every possible combination of troll characteristics, from fake bull to bear, to "disinterested" "observer".  All have failed.  Maybe it's time to give up? 

writingsonthewall's picture

You're missing the point - who's buying silver for a return?

Only speculators who got burned in the margin hike - the rest of us are heavy in physical and it's got nothing to do with profit.

I intend to sell my silver for my brand new 'amerixo dollars' or 'uni-currency' or whatever else the shit they bring out to 'fix the fiat' this time.

I certainly won't be exchanging it back for dollars, pounds, yen or anything else for that matter.

 

Take a clue from the news - "record low interest rates for a record length of time" - do you not understand the magnitude?

Maybe you think this happens every recession - maybe you're only 14 and don't remember previous recessions - maybe history isn't your strong point.

Paper currency only has value while people have faith in it - the same would happen to tomatoes if you discovered I had a 'magic tomato tree' which could produce billions of tomato's in a day like Ben's printer does for dollars.

I mean who would exchange anything of any rarity for tomatoes then?

LawsofPhysics's picture

Exactly.  The silver and gold I have is a long term hedge against uncertainty.  I think most of us will participate in a system so long as we have faith that we are not simply being set up.  The world is waking up to the fact that the financial sector is a cancer that the broader sectors of the economy (that actually create things of real value) can no longer support.  People with half a brain know the value of their labor and they realize that their buying power and compensation is being stolen by paper-pushing criminals.  Fraud is the status quo and more and more people see that.  Thanks to greed, paper has become so far removed from reality there is no turning back.  Black market volumes growing by leaps and bounds as people say "fuck it".  How many people on food stamps now?  Already in many American neighborhoods people are bartering with one another trading goods and services that they see as valuable.  The financial fucknuts have forgotten that there is a real cost for creating capital (in whatever form it may be) and their failure to fess up and police themselves will take the world back to the stone age.

Toxicosis's picture

Then fuck off and don't come here.  If you don't like what you see or here, why bother commenting.  You're not being forced to do jack shit.  If you love the U.S. dollar, than so be it.  If we shit on your parade, take your bat and ball and go hit in another park.  All in all fuck off!!

tahoebumsmith's picture

Folks, relax in your seats while the next set on the puppet show is staged. What you see here is the kick off of President Obama's 2012 campaign. He fought and beat the evil Bin Laden and now he will defeat the evil speculators like he vowed a few weeks back in his speech with Eric Holder. Soon by the 4th of July, the American Lemmings will be waving Obama flags at every parade across America, meanwhile the country will continue its decent into the abyss. Just look at the approval ratings blasted all over the msm today...Obama's rating jumped to 60%!!! La De Fricken DA.. As the destruction of American continues, the sheep are baaaaing louder then they have in a while and bending over to take some more.

tmosley's picture

I don't do what you claim.  If you actually read the comments I was replying too, and learned the history of those posters who made those posts, you too would see that they are not only highly biased, but that they are a bunch of liars.

I don't mind contrary opinions.  There are plenty of bears here that get on well with everyone else.  It's just that there have been an influx of trolls recently.  A troll is a person who does not accept logic or facts unless they support their case, and who goes further and literally lies, or presents half truths to support their "case".  I fight these people by pointing out their lies, and making it generally unpleasant for them so they will leave.  I have a long history of doing this.  It might surprise a lot of people, but I DO have an open mind on silver--I just haven't seen an argument that actually holds up to scrutiny.  Those who really want to be silver bears despite all logic and reasoning against it respond to my scrutiny with nastiness.  Sure, I might have started it by calling them morons, but who cares?  This is Fight Club.  If you can't take a few barbs, then you don't need to be making comments.  That doesn't mean you shouldn't respond to them.

Slim's picture

Got it.  I don't have a frame of reference on post history for many accounts so if the comment is more an ongoing personal argument that's something different.  As I've followed this site over a few years I've just seen it become more and more centered on one particular viewpoint and a lot of posters seem totally locked into it and attack anyone who doesn't see the world exactly how they do (they value protecting "turf" more than open exchange of ideas).  At the end of the day whether one is locked into normalcy bias or TEOTWAWKI bias, they are doing themselves and society a disservice in being locked and no longer thinking critically.  Personal viewpoint is that if everyone did their best to gather info, think independently, and was willing to listen openly to the views of others, the world would be infinitely better off and we'd have avoided much of the idiocy we are currently dealing with.

Math Man's picture

A troll is a person who does not accept logic or facts unless they support their case, and who goes further and literally lies, or presents half truths to support their "case".

 

This makes tmosely a master troll.

NidStyles's picture

Does that make you the Supreme Overlord Troll?

tmosley's picture

See?  A nice big lie from our little neighborhood troll to illustrate my point.  Thank you, Meth Man.

Math Man's picture

Enjoy your silver when it trades right back to your cost basis below $20.

The short covering rally that ended last night has set us up to go much lower.  Now that the shorts have covered, we are basically out of buyers, and anyone who bought the dip is screwed.  It happens with every bubble.  Peak, drop, quick rally, massive drop.

Just pull up an old NASDAQ chart.  The similarities are frightening (for longs).

I also recommend you read this:  http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/05/costatas-silver-open-forum.html

You've been buying the wrong metal Tmo...

 

tmosley's picture

Hurp a derp.

The premiums (and your choice of lies) tell the tale more clearly than I ever could.

Enjoy watching your agenda fall to pieces.

Toxicosis's picture

So meth-user is FOFOA the droid your looking for.  Both silver and gold are considered monies.  Both are tradeable, barterable, and fungible.  You're obviously interested only in paper and stocks.  Most of us here are interested in holding PHYSICAL hard money for protection against future loss of fiat purchasing power.  Which by the way has been accelerating since the fed took over almost 100 years ago.  Those are the facts, not wishful thinking or paper fiction.  Good luck with trading paper, you're gonna need it.

writingsonthewall's picture

Oh listen to the contradictory tmosley.

You don't want regulation....except when it protects you from making a loss....or when it breaks up giant banks created through the process of capital accumulation...or when it stops profiteering......or when it prevents the cornering of the wheat / rice / bean market....or when it stops your pension being raided.....or when it ensures that there will be water in the tap when you turn it on.

Regulation is an inevitability in free market capitalism

Regulation distorts the market and opens it to rigging

Regulation puts the regulators in control of your lives

Free market capitalism will always lead to Government control - you're just a hypocrite when you call for the end of regulation - or simply a fool who hasn't thought the consequences through properly.

 

Nobody likes market interference and regulation - but without it you wouldn't know if your local shop would have any food on any particular day - and I don't see how society could function under such circumstances.

 

You have not considered the alternative to regulation properly - you dream of a fantastic world where companies fall and are replaced by mre efficient ones and the consumer isn't battered by constant re-invention and that this isn't exploited by business owners who work out that 'here today gone tomorrow' is a great way of 'making profit'

...you don't like to pay taxes - but you're happy to be protected by the numerous laws which are designed to protect you from unscrupulous businesses - which require a vast system to produce them (the executive , the senate and congress)

You don't like to pay pensions to the public sector - but you're happy to allow the police to protect your 'property' and happy for the fire service to put the fire out on your roof - you just want them to work for nothing - right?

 

Typical libertarian - living in bubbles.

tmosley's picture

What regulation am I asking for, exactly?  I am asking for the EXCHANGE, a PRIVATE ENTITY to make rules in a manner that makes sense for them, rather than using the rules to favor one party on the exchange at the expense of another.  Where do you get this nutzo idea that in a libertarian society, consumers suddenly have no right to complain?

You go on and on about crap that doesn't even make any sense.

And for your "here today gone tomorrow" bit--there is a reason businesses say "since XXXX year".  Businesses that have been around for a long time aren't going to just up and close shop to run a one time scam.

Might I suggest you refrain from cleaning your car, or your home, or anything else, as that process would only cause them to get dirty?

Also, stop telling me what I do and don't like.  You don't even have a command of basic premises, and use tortuous logic to arrive at predestined conclusions.

All that crap about how I am so misguided and evil, yet you are doing the exact same thing that I am, and hold the exact same opinions about most things.  You just refuse to call a spade a spade, preferring to call it a heart, and confuse yourself in a truly epic manner.

morph's picture

So you'd rather have a currency backed by lexmark printers?

Ballz's picture

Load up Fort Knox with white iPhones...

Sophist Economicus's picture

How about sovereign currency with a float to gold and other commodities if desired.   Basically the system we have now without the 100 to 1 or more paper leverge setting the 'artifical' price of gold.

 

Screw government safeguards (oxymoronic wouldn't you say?).   If i want to get rid of your currency, you 'pay' me in hard assets -- gold, bushels of wheat, that you need to convert your soveriegn currency in the marketplace for those 'hard asets'.   The markeplace will determined how valuable your currency is to them

 

Fiat2Zero's picture

Dude you're a fucking idiot.  Do a little research on the history of paper money.  It always goes to zero, despite whatever "safeguards are in place."  The usual safeguard is to back the currency with gold.  Eventually, the safeguards are watered down (e.g. fractional reserve) in order to finance whatever current debacle the Government is involved with, usually a war.  When all safeguards are removed, and the printing presses are going non-stop, the collapse occurs.  It usually takes awhile for the corpse to realize it's dead and fall over, but fall over it does.

Here's a rag for your bloody nose you fucking tool.  Clean up and go home.

JW n FL's picture

Synthetic Tops in Commodities Provided by the CFTC to the detriment of Americans and Betterment of “People’s Republic of China”!

 

Every time the CFTC releases its Margin Hike Press Release after hours here in the United States.. China gets to front run the Fucking Dip!

 

It is not bad enough that the idiots who back test blindly will cause artificial drag on the market with the Synthetic Peaks that have been provided to them, the algo’s can NOT even grasp the concept and for the most part the people who are programming are going to favor the numerically correct solution based on the larger law of averages..

 

But an American Commission, that is supposed to protect Americans.. is empowering China to once again have the upper hand?

 

What the FUCK?

 

Our Government has given China enough freebies for the week! And last week and pretty much going forward for-fucking-ever!

 

I hate stupid people! I hate the stupid Government that allows 50,000 jobs to go to China a MONTH! Now China gets to front run the downward pressure in Metals which benefits CHINA! Which is a foreign Power! More than the Americans it is supposed to help in the long run!!

 

TREASON! IS FUCKING TREASON!!

 

Senate Republicans blocked a Democratic Bill to End tax Breaks for Moving U.S. Jobs Offshore! 50,000 Manufacturing Jobs a Month since 2001 have LEFT! The United States for China! http://goo.gl/6qhnK

 

How much more are we going to have to give China? When is enough stupidity enough? This Country is FUCKED! And no one gives a shit! Everyone wants to pray for the rapture or live the lie of the Treasury! And where in the FUCK are the people charged with securing the national Security of the Country? Those mother fuckers are the First ones that should be hung for treason.. going back 30 – 40 years!

Tortfeasor's picture

You could throw out the chart if we had a real backing.  

TruthInSunshine's picture

The fact that crude oil supplies are threatening to flood inland areas of the U.S. (and other developed nations) is highly bullish and shows that the U.S. consumer is highly resilient to high prices, and that the economic fundamentals are quite strong, indeed!

 

 


/SARC