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So Much For The Rescue: Greek Bund Spreads Bounce From 540 bps Back To 570 bps
After tightening to 540 bps, Greek-German 10 Year spreads are now back to 570 bps. The final outcome at this rate would still be a sovereign bankruptcy, but one which would have the US algos smiling all the way to the bank as they surge on every piece of good news and ignore the bad (a Greek Chapter 11 means billions in advisory fees for Wall Street - buy). At least the global market has said that at this point a Greek bankruptcy is a certainty. All those covering EUR shorts may want to reconsider.
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And the Dax and FTSE surge on such excellent news
eur strength was never intended as a goal of the package, just saving Greeces sorry ass. did you think sending whole world a message that we don't really care about the Maastricht criteria and guarantee moral hazard out of cowardice would make eur stronger?
I can only imagine the stupid Eurocrat faces when banksters (who knew all along) come with the sad news the magical rescue package failed and all the money was unfortunately wasted (except for the righteously justified 12.5% they raked in fees).
"12.5% they raked in fees"
Just doing Zeus' work.
Yawn. Wake me up in 6 months.
But, But, But Roubini said that a Bailout from the IMF will not work and cause havok. Just another Bobble head. The bottom line is this. I dont care how many experts there are. This market will go to 36,000 no matter what has to be done. Us middle class citizens will be the ones to suffer. The Fed will see to that. I am prepping my Corolla with pillows and Blankets . It will get bad. Gasoline jumped 39 cents in a week. Greece will get bailed out. Its good for the market.
The operative economic philosophy derives from "horse & sparrow" theory -- if one overfeeds the horse with enough oats, enough may possibly pass through to its shit to allow the sparrow to eat, too.
This can go on forever. Bailout, no bailout, maybe bailout, bailout...
Stock market, bottle rocket, gangster pockets.
Word association is fun.
While preparing for a barter economy (in a country where dark transactions already thump their nose at taxman, IMF and EE alike) a few thoughts on money and debt through the years -- gold or Goldman?
http://blog.longnow.org/2010/04/22/debt-the-first-five-thousand-years/
The logical trade here is short the Euro. But that is not without risk either.
There will be very big strings attached to a IMF/EU deal. Greece is not going to like those terms. They are rioting now. Wait two weeks.
Plan B is they say, "Screw the bailout, we will go the Argentine/Ecuador route and just default and restructure. Rather than cut expenses we will just cut our debt."
If you dropped a few PIIGS out of the Euro what would be the value of the Euro?
There are only three answers. Higher, lower or the same.
So which comes first 1.10, or 1.50?
Watch this one. The least likely outcome may well be what happens. About a quadrillion dollars in posions have been built on the "sure thing" in the past four months.
"If you dropped a few PIIGS out of the Euro what would be the value of the Euro?"
This is the big question that will ultimately determine the fate of the eurozone.
My vote is up. Dropping the dead weight off of the euro and letting the PIIGS collapse in on themselves will be positive for the euro in the longterm. The only way it drops is if confidence is lost (aka Germany leaves), in which case the eruo goes to 0.
If Greece takes the bailout medicine, then Portugal takes the bailout medicine, but then Spain might be too big to bail out and they default. Then Greece and Portugal would be saddled with austerity, which Spain gets to start over with a cleaner balance sheet. Eventually someone will be too big to be bailout out. That's why it would be better for Greece and Portugal to just default, and start the end of all bail outs.
If everyone just keeps buying AAPL, you'll be just fine.
insaneas it is if people follow harry wagner we will make money
basically if you do the exact opposite of what makes sense
you will be fine