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So Was The Chairman Simply Lying?
Following today's margin induced collapse in commodities we can't help but wonder if the Chairman's interpretation of crude prices as being merely an indication of the "economist's basic mantra of supply and demand" was wrong, as pretty much all statements by Fed critters, or if he was simply lying.
Now, our --- our interpretation of the increase in gas prices is the economist's basic mantra of supply and demand. On the one hand, we have a rapidly growing global economy, emerging market economies are growing very quickly, and their demand for commodities, including oil, is very, very strong.
Indeed, essentially all of the increase in the demand for oil in the last couple years, in the last decade has come from emerging market economies. In the United States, our demand for oil, our imports have actually been going down over time.
So the demand is coming from a growing economy, where we've seen about a 25 percent increase in emerging market output in the last - in the last - since before the crisis.
And on the supply side, as everybody knows who watches television, we've seen disruptions in the Middle East and North Africa, in Libya and in other places that have constrained supply, supply has not been made up, and that, in turn, has driven gas prices up quite significantly.
Odd, so it is speculators on the way down, and natural supply and demand on the way up. Or maybe the developed world announced today it was not going to use crude any more - a press release which we admit we must have missed.
And to follow up:
There's not much the Federal Reserve can do about gas prices, per se, at least not without derailing growth entirely, which is certainly not - not the right way to go. After all, the Fed can't create more oil. We don't control the growth rates of emerging market economies.
Ah yes, but the Fed can certainly make it clear to the CME to destroy "speculation" in massively cross-linked asset classes. Is that a reasonable assessment of Bernanke's words?
Of course, Bernanke did make it clear that liquidity will keep coming for an extended amount of time, should the economy not pick up, the variable that pushed gold to an all time high. Luckily, that was a week ago, and everyone has forgotten all about that now.
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Is this a trick question?
If ZeroHedge is taking the position that the Fed is lying about supply/demand, then wouldn't Zero Hedge have been lying about the role of speculators in the price run?
Thats the problem with trolling Dungslinger, too often you let the mask slip and show your true colors.
rn
most people here already understand the plot. the usa government is bankrupt. the fed is the buyer of only resort vis-a-vis treasuries. and much of what one sees and hears from the fed and treasury is an orchestrated phalanx of lies and deception to make people who think and know otherwise that all is well.
was he lying?
his lips were moving weren't they?
He wasn't simply lying. All his lies are complex
+1
It is an art to be able to speak out of ones mouth and ass at the same time. This is a prerequisite for politicians of all flavors.
do you think he's one of those guys paid to troll zh posting comments to sway the marginal reader? he's written some utterly ridiculous comments. my personal favorite was the one where he told us to think like a ceo - that's chief executive officer for the uninformed he told us.
That is indeed pretty funny. Maybe he has a day job translating Mexican salsa signs ("fuego" means "fire" in spanish) as well.
zh is a website posting articles and opinions on the financial issues of the day. ben bernanke is the federal reserve chairman of the reserve currency of the world. there's a difference in their mandates. ben bernanke doesn't want to be held accountable for his printing actions.
and of course speculators moved the price of crude up. bernanke all but begged them to speculate through zirp, inflation expectations and money printing.
Matters not - just look at the REIT's sitting at 2.5 yr highs...ahhhh, safe and sound there...nothing bad could ever happen to the REIT's.
And then there's the Russell 2000- up on the day. Hmmm...safe and sound.
survivor bias in some of the reit's in the total return. but i get your point.
You need to take the gun out of the holster before you pull the trigger...
lol. good one.
The trick question is whether this buying opportunity will be as transitory as Bearnanny's credibility.
TRANSITORY BITCHEEEZZZES
rhetorical?
Lying? Ben Bernanke?? No. I absolutely believe him. I absolutely believe that the Fed Chairman could not possibly know there was a housing bubble in the making.. or that QE doesn't cause inflation.. or......
"Was he lying?" Hmmm... That's a tough one, let me consult my algo.
My algo has a two prong decsision tree on that:
Question 1 - Was his mouth shut, if "yes", then "no"; if no then Question 2
Question 2 - Did he say anything, if "yes" then "yes"
Algo will trade on the decision that Bernanke was, in fact, lying.
Yup squeezing dickheads who went 100:1 leverage on commodities is a bad thing.
I mean c'mon why lower the risk any.
Yeah thats true, leverage is a double edge sword for sure, but having a lot of trading desks blowing up is not a good thing either.
If there is an explosion on the trading room floor all leverage is automatically off loaded to the FED balance sheet per revised business (profit & bonus) continuity plan.
Sad but true. The only sucker left holding the bag at the end of the day is the US tax payer.
Transitorial truth I believe it's called.
Until next week when a new truth shall be revealed to all.
if only they increased the margins on oil to protect investors from getting carried away.....
*crickets*
That's funny!
This is the problem with parsing economic trends from granular price movements. ZH / Tyler is as guilty as anyone else on this issue. If it's not oil, it's silver, gold, treasuries or equities...
When silver soars, it's inflation of course. But what about when silver plunges? Is that deflation? disinflation? Or no wait ... it's a "take down". Yeah that's it. Rises are due to inflation, and drops are (of course) "manipulation".
Sigh. The old saw never changes. But it always cuts poorly.
Any market with sufficient volatility provides infinite ammunition for all opposing theses.
Well 'they' did hike margin five times in one week in Silver. And given how equities are doing nothing to the down side while PM go down almost 30% then yeah that does scream 'manipulation'.
Nooo, there's nothing suspicious about an equities markets staying static, while commodities are collapsing, in an environment where the central bank rigs the bond markets.
No manipulation whatsoever, those who think so are clearly conspiracy theorists.
And with the Dollar launching !!!
It took silver 9 years to go from $5 to $50. That might be inflation.
then again..
It took silver 3 days to go from $50 to $35.
That is, conveniently, deflation.
Right. Right. Moving along now.
Rather convenient manipulation of the X axis don't you think, my friend?
How'd silver do in the last 6 months? Was that all inflation?
look ninkumpoopo if you try and daytrade comodities, it will surely bite you in dee a**.
However if you just ring big T and ask to buy the metals for ya, he will lock you in a good price based on current bid/ask. No don't be a don't bee and sell it in a week or you being beside da point. Buy metal and sit on um it kimosabe.
Oh I see Popo, you wouldn't be postin from the Jacuzzi over at the Rothschild's mansion with the 12 year old naked girls tied up in it monseur?
No mo day tradin and then winin', jesus you worse than a troll almost.
:)
I'd take advice from a pirate on PMs anyday over the paper pushers.
> "Oh I see Popo, you wouldn't be postin from the Jacuzzi over at the Rothschild's mansion with the 12 year old naked girls tied up in it monseur?"
Yes. Yes, that's exactly me. Hello from the underage sex-party. Could you send over some more Grey Poupon?
I love how all opposing non-mainstream theses are instantly labeled as "mainstream".
If you're not a goldbug, you're a Rothschild, eh? Lulz sonny. Pull up a graph of M2 lately?
Something's going to bite you in the ass. It's not a dog, but does begin with a 'D'.
Buddy,
Look at the Silver chart and tell me this was a bunch of day traders deciding to hit sell at the same time. The rat is trapped and is fighting back hard. The fundo's for Silver have never been better, just check out Harvey Organ's blog. to check OI
Maybe I will sell my vault full of silver and exchange it for green toilet paper, or wait maybe not!
yeah i applaud the raids. a bit further down, and i start buying more physical.
At the end of the day who cares? If you go long Silver here without any leverage it matters not what their number for pushing down Silver to is. They wont be able to shake you out if you have paper silver without leverage or physical silver.
Until this little display comes to an end, short paper gold, long physical gold. Divert profits into more physical gold. Sleep well at night.
I know some trolls out there are lurkin' but not sure about Popo.
I know you sheep head fucker Rothschilds just dumped about 1/100000th of a % of your gold and silver on the markets to make sheep shit hit the wall to scare the bejesus out of them so they start using fake Fiat dollars again and run from PM's)
In foot ball USA way they call this play a 'hail mary' since the JPM front for the Rothschilds owns too many puts on silver and gold for decades to keep price of PM low artificially. Therefore the R's been selling huge boatloads of Silver and Gold to trick everyone else to sell and then they can unwind their short pos. and go home and u know what 12 year olds stress free again.
You've got me nailed, pirate boy. I am Baron de Rothschild. I love Zero Hedge because it's such a wonderful example of conformity of thought. It gives me hope for another empire one day.
Now... back to counting my billions. And you pirate boy, must get back making french fries. Break time is over.
we're not monetizing debt, right? that was true, right?
Well they can slam the PMs, so why not oil? They really are the Masters of the Universe. Can they do something about my property taxes?
Yea, raise them, they are not sure if local governments are too big to fail yet. They will try to squeeze the last juice out of the plebes that fell for the "ownership society".
Long Live Chairman MaoNanke!
You are insolent swine for questioning our supreme monetary wizard chief!
Again:
Buying PMs is an insurance. Thou shall not buy insurance on leverage: thou shall buy your insurance physically so that you shall sleep well.
That's a fact jack!
Buy physical, hedge with paper, buy more physical. Don't sit in a losing position and comfort yourself with the knowledge that you will be right in the end. The market eats armchair economists
alert: this just in erin burnett is worried about pay for us navy seals.
when does obama put on the uniform?
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/nationworld/wpix-family-unhappy-about-o...
You are a navy seal? That explains a lot. You do seem to have the mental agility of a jarhead. Civilian control of the military. Always.
he seems sincere. reminds me of Pat Boone.
Tyler where are the bears? Its at times like these that i need to take some comforting investment advice from talking cartoon bears...
In years to come there will be some junior analyst researching the mania of bubbles and he might conclude "the silver bubble of 2011 was of great note, it seems that investors were listening to talking bears when the bubble was popping, this confirms my assumtions that humans then, were complete fucking morons".
Priceless.
The story's not over, moron. this is just the rigged paper market, or don't you know the difference?
Sure, everythings' a con these days..i suppose the paper oil, gold, copper, etc markets are all rigged aswell. Gentle ribbing my friend, makes no difference to me. The only thing i took from this was confirmation that ALL parabolic moves come to an end. This time WAS NOT different.
Great thought, let's ignore 5,000 years of money being physical gold and silver. Lets sell that track record and jump into digital money, whopee, it's like I am starring in the Matrix. Jim Sinclair said it years ago, get ready for swings in Gold of $100 per day, who knows, in time maybe Silver too.
ok, suit yourself.
Don't you have to know what you're talking about before you can lie?
So based on the Bernak, prices are solely dictated by supply and demand, and if the supply isn't increasing and the demand is, that is why prices are going up.
Did we miss the massive 10% drop in demand for oil today?
Or worse, did we miss the even more massive 25% drop in demand for silver?
Nope, no new revolutions, nope, no Saudi government on the ropes, Nope, no new pirate attacks on tankers, nope, no nationalizations of mines, nope, no new mine disasters. Darn it, it must be a drop in demand, it just has to be!
Easy answer. The silver bubble popped so apparently we all stopped buying silver today, so all of us stopped driving that extra 10% to get our daily purchase of physical. And this of course happened world wide. Today. Because we silver bugs are just confused sheep and it takes a little longer to herd us in the right direction.
Did I get that right?
Mmmmm, sure some speculators and some figures of autority were involved too...
Tomorrow, Flash crash anniversary and its a Friday to boot.
All is not well at Skynet.
Ah...i doubt it. It might be a flash up in the most stable asset known to mankind: the Russell 2000. BTFD.
Wait....holy shit! The Russell 2000 is down almost .50% right now. Fuck. Goddammit. Ben? Do you hear me? Ben...? Ben.......?
Now that's better, Ben. Shit. I was nervous for a moment there as the Russell 2000 dipped. Should trend green end of day. Thank god!
Ben can't hear sh1+ down in the basement while the presses are running. I'm surprized he took time out today to lie to the press.
Without removing financial speculators from oil markets we will never know the true "supply-demand" price of oil.
Silver was $26.00 in January - last week Market Vane hit 96% bullish concensus. 200-day m.a. is around $32.60. Might start picking away there...
Given the volatility, i expect 200 ma to be breached at least intraday; i like starting to build longs from 31.25/32.20 (support trendline from 17.74 to 26.36 is now at 31.60 - previous resistance line from 15.21(2006) & 21.31 (2008) also comes in around 31.60 - Monthly S2 at 32.19 - previous top at 31.25 (2010)).
Not sure how to post a chart in here or i would do it for a clearer technical picture
On APMEX, Silver EAgles sell for $7 over spot. Amazing.
The Silberbear has it right, one price for paper silver and another for physical.
I saw a Peter Schiff video were he said $100 swings in gold will be the norm. Silver @ $25 I'm buyin all I can...
The Dow is starting to tank.
its like a murder, mystery novel. Butler bernank bitchez!
Can any of the smarter people here help me understand the implications of the following: according to Google stats, there are only alledgedly 368.7 million shares of SLV outstanding, yet by the end of the day we will have easily seen over 300 million shares traded. I'm just struggling with how this makes sense in the real world, and I know I'm awake and not having a nightmare. Are the HFTs playing catch with each other in 10 MM lots? I mean seriously, WTF?
There actually is a law against that, but since the SEC IT department is incapable of such basic technological wonders as blocking full-time porn surfing by SEC employees, on SEC computers, connected to the SEC network, dissecting lines of someone else's computer code and understanding what it actually does is several decades away at best.
if you look through volume and OI figures for futures contracts you will find it not at all uncommon for the daily volume to even exceed the OI in busy conditions. eg Jun Tnotes today have had a trading volume about 80% of the current OI. and they werent particularly busy.
it doesnt mean anything sinister. i just means there are a lot of day traders, possibly augmented by large new positions or liquidation. do you think there might have been a lot of open position liquidation today in the silver?
good point, but the crime is the tree falling in the woods, not whether it made noise doing so, if the net effect of HFT software code is that shares are being passed back and forth and profits are being made in the process, and bankers are forced to plead ignorance before unsympathetic juries, then any half-decent government lawyer, what am I thinking - look at their IT department.
Silver, bitchez!!!
Now down 30% in 7 days and 12% today.
If iPods were on sale 30% you'd cream your jeans. Buy buy buy!!!
At what price are you going to execute your puts? oh, wait....it's Hamy not Harry
The world runs relatively normally until the U.S. fascist markets open.
Seriously, the world would be a hell of lot better without the U.S. Makes me sick waking up every morning knowing the U.S. exists in the world to be honest.
Please implode soon.
On a long enough timeline, everythings survival rate drops to zero.
Added some Kiwis this AM. A nibble. If we see more lows tomorrow I may get more. Just keep stacking!
Silver For The People
http://www.youtube.com/user/BrotherJohnF?feature=mhum
It's so sad when we have to rely upon a moronic fuck hell bent on social class genocide to manipulate prices to induce a sense of reality that is nothing but an illusion-- but having the most negative effects upon the real economy.
Obama and his SS were targeting not speculators but the smaller players who provide the liquidity and balance to the bigger players who continue to move the markets in a deconstructive way.
This is what our economy has gotten to-- moving market prices around to further the validity of a broken system all the while breaking the backs of the middle and lower classes and the poor and enslaving their children to years and years of indentured servitude.
Gold is down $48 WTF?
Yeah, nobody wants the stuff anymore. China just found out you can't eat it and has stopped buying.
zls bitchez!
His lies are transitory.
I could only wish they were! LOL!
Thanks for the belly roll!
He was lying. Period!
Look....you have to talk baby talk ...in order to be understood....
Before many of the derivative based and all other commodity Wall Street products were put into production....there used to be the simple product called oil for cash....
If one were to simply examine the sole value of the commodity itself....it would be less than 10% of all the paper oil related products....
Let´s do the math...
What would the price of oil be without the non cash paper Wall Street Big Bank products....
Perhaps less than 10% of what it is today....
Think not....
And by the way....remember that little item regarding position limits via GS Gensler...that was put off and no longer discussed in the news....
Yeah....I thought so....
That is exactly his job. FED=private company. He is beholden to the stockholders. They could give a rats ass about US! END THE FED!
No, FEED THE FED!
interesting private company, which turns all its earnings over to Treasury, and has its management appointed by the President and ratified by Congress, eh!
I think he knows if he hiked rates oil would come down quite a bit. But to him, that would "destroy" the economy. It would certainly blow the bubble economics we have now.
*BB is speaking about longer term factors that 1 day of trading
*contrary to the beliefs of some, the Fed does not issue directives to the CME. it is the CFTC which handles that.
Is BB lying? ...depends on what is is ...
WHO REMEMBERS SOME GROUP OF PEOPLE LAUGHING SMUGLY ABOUT HOW WRONG GOLDMAN WERE A FEW WEEKS AGO, WHEN CALLING THE TOP IN THE COMMODITY MARKETS?? AND HOW THEY WERE JUST TALKING THEIR BOOK?? SOMEBODY MUST BE FEELING PRETTY STUPID NOW. AND YOU COULDNT CALL IT BANKSTER FRAUD IF THEY HAVE NOW BENEFITTED FROM THE MOVE, GIVEN THAT THEY STATED IT PUBLICLY SOME WEEKS BEFORE IT OCCURRED.
man, dont you hate that?
haha, no comment from anyone. what a surprise!
see my general comment about the 'hail mary' pass the JPM Rothschild puppets just pulled off selling phys PM and crashing markets Monday to knock down the runnaway schooner full of their gold/sil puts they been keeping PM markets down with for decades matey.
You work at Goldman? Shit you must be making 1000 quid per keystroke for todays work writing all that post just now? Hell I make 1000 french fries per dollar pay over at big Mac's so yu makin' book baby!!!!
Everyone speaking for the govenment is lying. They may even be so lost in their delusions that they aren't even aware that they're out of their minds.
I imagined it was like this in the USSR in the last decade of its existence.
this is best i read yet.
dang the illusions they have in their own minds eh?
I used to have that too. Its a disease of the mind.
But the CIA/CNN media is designed to super sheep brain fuck us and they even give us coke so our brain is numb so we don't feel the dick movin' round inside it!!!!
what we need is B7 to do a series of Fed dudes boincin' sheep with horn side down.
Como se dice? 'Cattle Call' although the Commie Fedsky is still branded F&C in me video memory capable brain as the fookin 3CP Green$cam FokoCosmoNaut is floatin around like Dave after he jetisined orbitin' Jupiter in 2001 A Space Odessey.
Hal? Hal? Hal? Hal? Hal? Hal? Hal? Hal? Hal?
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