SocGen Presents Its Vision For The Future In Several Pretty Charts

Tyler Durden's picture

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Orly's picture

The information to get on this site...Amazing.

Give it up for ZeroHedge...

{solitary standing-0}

the rookie cynic's picture

Agreed. Thanks ZH. 

Orly, your comments are insightful as well - FX especially.

prophet's picture

A quick observation on credibility.  I thought people come to ZH lacking it and post comments in an effort to gain it.  This notion that people lose credibility they never had by posting comments makes no sense to me.     

rd's picture

Hummm intriguing. Makes me wonder what kind of prophet are you...

Oracle of Kypseli's picture

He meant to write "pontificator"

Mercury's picture

Putting the U.S. at 12:30 (deleveraging mode) on the bubble wheel is a bit of a stretch.

The clock soooo hasn't struck midnight yet.

BobPaulson's picture

That was my comment. Also, what happens to places in good shape if the US goes into a nasty freefall. It sucks when you're swimming in the water beside the Titanic when it slides into the water. I say this from a Canadian standpoint where all the good banking practices and commodity sector strength won't save us if the U.S. gets into a worse tailspin.

Shameful's picture

Might help your housing bubble though.  I honestly expect a hoard of Americans to show up in Canada, legal or not.  It's what keeps me from looking at relocating too Canada seriously.  Pretty sure you guys will get overwhelmed when our great ponzi pops.

ZeroPower's picture

Maybe the 'main' cities.. Vancouver on the West, T.O and Montreal on the East. Otherwise there's plenty of space for yall in the centers:)

Mercury's picture

Still BP,  what I perceive to be the Canadian bull thesis is pretty compelling: lots of energy/nat res/agg/PM which is/will catch a bid either via EM growth or developed market currency devaluation or both. And all backed by arguably the soundest banking/financial system in the world (fastest of the slow crowd I know, but still).

wiskeyrunner's picture

Everyone ready for the overnight float higher in the stock index futures? Another gap up on the open then 6 hours in a 3 point range in the SP500.

Orly's picture

That was my point earlier hollerin' at Wanger.  The thing rockets up, then...

{Dooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.......}  Flatline.

That's just not natural.

HarryWanger's picture

And my point with you was on Tuesday, it fell like a rock and flatlined. It's not that unusual and it works both ways.

Orly's picture

That is not correct, Harry.  I was going to write you back but I had to mop the floor.  (No joke, jus' sayin'...)

The move you mentioned on Tuesday opened down, retraced, bottomed and traded in an 8 point range.  That may be construed as somewhat normal...at least within the realm of reality.

Today, the thing ramped up, stuck and traded within a (minimal...) 2.5-point range for over seven hours.  Seven hours of {Doooooooooooo.....}

That is not normal.  Strange things are afoot at the Circle K.  The President came out tonight and said so.

prophet's picture

Ya, remember in '04 I think it was when there was this effort to try and find out who was behind futures account Nxxxx.  Well its all still coming to light but everyone knows these hover for today then stomp em algo accounts are pervasive.  Some say banks, some say collusion of traders, some say govt, and some say aliens.  Whatever it is, it is now somehow "normal".

rd's picture

Sarcasm on: Surely you're not implying it's a manipulated market, are you? No way.

Sarcasm off: I believe the last two sessions are just ridiculous. Yesterday was as boring as you can get. Today you get two bumps and then it's like trading stopped.

rd's picture

I draw the light blue with a slight different angle which led me to believe that the market either stops "here" at 1200 or goes for that trendline at about 1212. Apart from that small difference I'm looking exactly the same thing.

Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Great presentation. However, when I read cliche words like "headwinds", cash rich", "remain cautious", "policy multipliers", reminds me of Larry Summers and I want to vomit. 

Nonwithstanding, the concluding paragraph is a masterpiece.

Therefore, the authors have the depth and self awareness of our limitations in this chaotic world. Kudos!

prophet's picture

Please tell me you mean the paragraph written by TD of ZH, not SocGen.

Oracle of Kypseli's picture

My apologies. In that case, the kudos go to TD.

Fraud-Esq's picture

What nation does SocGen have the most debt exposure to? Anyone know. Do they report with any accuracy? 

ZeroPower's picture

SocGen's structured assets and x-asset desk is bar none the best in the EU right now

Yits and the Yimrum's picture

this frog soup tastes pretty good~!

and yes, load up on some CANDO in some venue where the squid can't make a un-authorized withdrawl~!

southerncomfort's picture

okay - admit I just looked at the pictures.  why'd they leave out the middle east and Russia? 

Coldfire's picture

Eloquent crystal ball-ery.

gwar5's picture

I wouldn't give much stock to SocGen's assessments.

They're one of the one's who got us into the mess.

They didn't predict 2008 when it was obvious in 2006.

Invert and multiply is right TD.

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chrisina's picture

Probability of a double dip of 5% only? They must be joking. It's 2007 all over again when nobody at SocGen (and other TBTF banks) saw what was comming.

Morons.

centerline's picture

I won't say complete crap.  There is lots of good stuff here.  But, it is a complete mis-calculation of the risks going forward.  70% on central, kick-the-can, ponzi continuation outcome?  Give me a break.  5% on double-dip?  Wake up SocGen, smell the debt saturation... look at main street NOT able to effectively deleverage except by bankruptcy and foreclosure.  See the wave of rising costs that are going to further squeeze everyone in an a economy that is predominately consumer driven but controlled by special interests and mega-corporations. Recognize the liquidity trap... the potential for a blow-off top, the unfunded liability problem, masses of people falling off the unemployment roles, FUBAR'd mortgages/foreclosures jamming up the entire housing market, failing infrastructure/munis/states/pensions, baby boomer tsunami, education bubble, shadow banking risks, MBS risks, etc.   blah, blah, blah. <rant off... have to go to meeting now...>

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