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Austerity, Inflation Or Default: SocGen's Guide To 2011

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Some serious bedside reading here. Lots of pretty charts too, if a little too much undue optimism. Still, certainly one of the less Koolaidish reports out there.

 

 

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Thu, 12/09/2010 - 20:54 | 794457 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Thanks TD!

I don't believe much of what these guys put out these days though.

I count on the kindness of internet strangers to let me know if their lies are big ones or small. 

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 21:00 | 794464 Robslob
Robslob's picture

When you have complete global control why worry...it's when all the sheeple come back you should start to worry...until then...party on Garth!

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 21:04 | 794475 Robslob
Thu, 12/09/2010 - 22:53 | 794680 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"The two-year cost of the plan, estimated at about $850 billion, would further swell record federal deficits."

Sigh...

Of all the things I miss about the English language, it is it's words meaning something.

There is no cost of the plan...outside of unemployment benefits being extended.

Someone keeping the money that they earned, now apparently "costs" government something they would not have had to pay out otherwise?

I don't know what those words mean, so therefore I can't elaborate on what it might mean to someone else besides a bureaucrat.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 00:10 | 794816 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

Agreed, pretty retarded. Nor would the extra revenue show up if they did raise taxes, except maybe in China.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 03:56 | 795016 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

<insert melodramatic sigh of Olympian despair here>

Dare I then argue that as unemployment premiums have already been collected from those now unemployed 'there is no cost of the plan'  there either because those who receive unemployment benefits have already paid for them? Essentially it's just a matter of someone having renewed access to money they've already earned.

"...See how that works?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZO4cqJ5IGro

Bring on the junks you buncha duped yappy elitists' lap-dog scum.

<insert facepalm here>

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 09:35 | 795197 ibjamming
ibjamming's picture

 

 

 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 12:05 | 795573 Thisson
Thisson's picture

Your position fails because the unemployment insurance premiums were paid for a benefit of fixed duration, not infinite duration.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 13:38 | 795975 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

nobody is proposing 'a benefit of infinite duration'. So my argument holds, thanks for enhancing it.

"Of all the things I miss about the English language, it is it's words meaning something."

Speaking of the meaning of English words, 'irony' comes to mind....

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 21:11 | 794493 Calvin Jones an...
Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle's picture

Is that thing written at a 3rd grade level?  The first three pages are so repeat themselves quite a bit.  Austerity is the best way forward, huh?  Tell that to Prince Charles and the other "Tory scum."

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 03:56 | 795029 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Tyler translated it with "Bing".

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 21:28 | 794528 Jasper M
Jasper M's picture

SocGen HAS to be optimistic: They are in up to their necks in the PIIGS, and by now No One is going to buy that . . . stuff from them. ECB has its hands full just bidding the rollover.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 21:44 | 794555 DollarDive
DollarDive's picture

Why read it ? Did we honestly think that 1 year ago, that governments would have embarked on their current path of continued printing.  There's no end to the absurdity.  These guys sit in their offices and put out this bullshit to justify their $1mm+ paychecks.  It's not worth the ink used to print it.  We all know that banks are broke, governments are broke, and middle classes around the world are broke.  

It's as simple as print (as in QE2...3....4...etc) or don't print.  Don't print risks riots and political instability.  Print means that hyperinflation is a huge risk.  Price charts tell the story of the day.  Everything else is meaningless bullshit and opinion.  Trade the price.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 22:38 | 794589 Bob
Bob's picture

Elasticity of demand for UK Treasuries is skyrocketing!

They make it sound like fun.  WTF. 

Operation Payback

I hope that those appropriately equipped who are Man or Woman enough for this Human Force are following-up on their own.  Gut check, folks. 

It's a shame to see the kids falling on our behalf:

http://www.aolnews.com/tech/article/wikileaks-who-is-anonymous-and-what-...

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 22:11 | 794601 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Iceland is actually doing better now. Be better to default on the banks. Their problem, not sovereign one.

 

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 22:37 | 794647 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Best to lead than follow that dynamic fo sho

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 22:41 | 794655 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Thats right and it looks like default has a chance in Europe.

King Euro

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 22:47 | 794665 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

It apparently pays to go first - later your problems are yours and its everybody for themselves.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 22:20 | 794615 Hondo
Hondo's picture

You can't trust the street on any of this as the are in it up to their necks. They need to talk about the sun coming out in order to off load a lot of crap.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 22:43 | 794658 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Probably written by a rogue trader.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 22:48 | 794667 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

What kind of debt will be sold in 2011?

Hardly any.  Plenty of junk will be swallowed by the Fed, but that's not the same thing as sold, now is it?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 00:00 | 794802 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

10/31/08 Global Credit and the IMF Short-term Liquidity Plan

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/2758331

The Levin Institute

http://www.globalization101.org/ask/

 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 00:05 | 794808 Atomizer
Fri, 12/10/2010 - 00:05 | 794812 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture
Posted on November 2, 2005 | IMF/World Bank - World Bank & IMF Lesson Plan.   http://www.globalenvision.org/forteachers/17/856   IMF: Global Financial Stability Improving -- Must watch.   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79XiuKgsz20
Fri, 12/10/2010 - 01:10 | 794902 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Austerity -> Riot -> Default

Inflation -> Riot -> Default

Default -> Come Back from the dead -> Default -> Come back from the dead -> Riot riot riot -> Default

Flow chart bitches!!!!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 01:30 | 794924 huckman
huckman's picture

Look at page 62.  It shows a projected 2.0% ten-year US treasury yield.  What are they smoking?  Try 4.0% Sherlock.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 09:39 | 795203 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

Amazing how much good stuff the European commercial banks put out.

 

My favorite is Danske Bank. They do good work.

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