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SocGen's Three Scenarios For Oil See Crude Price Between $110 And $200

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Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:11 | 1026039 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Between $110 - $220??? That's what I call a BIG target...

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:30 | 1026097 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

Put 350 gallons in the boat this past weekend...Diesel at the marina was only $3.38/gal

Thought it would be much worse...hopefully, we'll get one or two trips offshore in before the coming storm in oil really takes hold

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 12:08 | 1026213 French Frog
French Frog's picture

that's not a target, that's just a wild guess with as broad a margin of error as possible just to make sure that all bases are covered so in 6 months time (or less) the writer can say "see... i told you so";

by its own definition, a target is "a reference point to shoot/aim at" and should be concise, not vague

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 13:12 | 1026501 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

Here are my 3 scenarios for oil.

1) it goes down in price.

2) it stays the same.

3) it goes up in price.

Now prove me wrong. lol

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 12:11 | 1026223 mophead
mophead's picture

*stealth devaluation*

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:14 | 1026040 CrashisOptimistic
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It's somewhat odd that these analyses ignore that:

1) Oil hit 147 in 2008 without any of these "Mideast turmoil" stories

2) Oil has been above $90 in 3 of the last 4 years without any of these "Mideast turmoil" stories.

3) And hell, let's make that above $105 in 2 of the last 4 without any of these "Mideast turmoil" stories

 

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:18 | 1026053 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

These reports are junk; no one can predict this fluid situation or market reaction.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:21 | 1026063 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Exactly.

The next credit crisis could send oil back down to $35 within 6 months, easy.

With the outlandish leverage being used right now by the hedge funds, if this market cracks like it did in 2008, crude will get decimated.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:29 | 1026095 Long-John-Silver
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Second dip hits any moment now. Jobs go in the crapper, oil hits $30, and Obama runs back to Kenya.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:57 | 1026175 pslater
pslater's picture

"...and Obama runs back to Kenya".

Let us pray.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:59 | 1026188 william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

QE ends abruptly (sooner than June) as a salute to gas prices, SPX goes in crapper, PMs go in crapper, Obama runs back to Chicago to hand out pipes to crack heads.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:36 | 1026112 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

From the junk predictor himself:

Gold brutalized, down $10 already from its highs
RobotTrader - Mon, Mar 7, 2011 - 09:39 AM

Here comes he Cartel with its "Midnight Massacre"

Probably a key outside reversal day for the CRB Index

 

 

 

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 12:34 | 1026322 Hulk
Hulk's picture

"big leak in the gulf proves there is no such thing as peak oil" my fav robo quote...

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 12:50 | 1026404 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Pure genius. I mean, all we need are more disasters to divert one.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:40 | 1026119 AbandonShip
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Credit Crisis?  Who you kidding? Haven't the CBankers proven they will do ANYTHING to prevent another credit crisis?  They'll sacrifice everything to make sure banks stay alive.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 14:49 | 1026913 redrob25
redrob25's picture

Outlandish leverage?

 

Let me guess, you were educated at Princeton, recruited by one of the big banks, and after the initial downturn, they told you that to keep your job, you had to run a bunch of bulletin board accounts under different accounts telling everyone nothing is wrong. What do they pay you a month? 5-6 grand?

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:20 | 1026057 Snidley Whipsnae
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And as usual they left out a black swan scenario... What if Hezbollah and Israel decide to have another go at each other? What if a small space rock lands in downtown Saudi Arabia? What if a tanker dies and sinks of natural rust in the Straits of Hormuz?

Too many variables to imagine them all...

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 12:34 | 1026326 Drachma
Drachma's picture

I think the price of oil has less to do with the Middle East and more to do with gold. $200 oil quite possible in that respect.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:15 | 1026043 Flakmeister
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We are at the tipping point based on effect of historical oil spikes. The higher oil spikes, the harder the economic fall. Unlike Au, oil spikes are highly deflationary.

Recommend very short term trades only or aquiring US/Cdn oil assets for a long term play.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:28 | 1026091 AbandonShip
AbandonShip's picture

+1 see my post below too.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:41 | 1026125 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

+1 see my reply to your post below... tag, you are it!

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:22 | 1026062 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

why not $221 ???

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:33 | 1026104 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

220....221...whatever it takes

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iX3kxAA2L4Q

 

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:22 | 1026069 locinvestor
locinvestor's picture

Here's another angle. Some reports say the States are trying to get Saudi Arabia to supply the Libyan rebels with arms (to do our work for us?). If that's true OR if Obama was stupid enough to acutally let one of our soldiers get killed there, how would that play into this?

Based on what's happened so far in Iraq and Afghanistan, my prediction is nothing would happen. Some like Stephen Lendman are saying that MSM outlets like the NYT are effectively govt. propaganda outlets. Which in many ways is true.

Is it once again a matter of out-of-sight-out-of-mind? I'm too busy trying to keep my home. What the fuck do I care about Libya? Acutually, you should give a shit.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:23 | 1026070 Robslob
Robslob's picture

or just stay i cash until everything blows up like last time...although in reality...2008 was probably a "worldwide bankers dry run" on how to completely fuck everyone on the planet...

Guns, ammo, soldiers, gold, silver, food, water and clean burning natural gas bitches.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:25 | 1026075 Stroke
Stroke's picture

Looking forward to the"Day of Rage"....lawn-chair & popcorn ready

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:26 | 1026086 AbandonShip
AbandonShip's picture

If SGen is right, this will kill the airline industry (especially those with unhedged fuel costs).  Anyone notice the recent ticket price hike?

Why don't these politicians & central bankers see that inflationary monetary policies will crush petro-chemical based economies?

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:40 | 1026120 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The inflationary policies are only exacerbating the underlying tend.

Net oil exports, i.e. the oil on the market, is down ~5% since 2005

The overall energy content of what we call "oil" has been flat since 2005 despite modest increases in production rates.

http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2011/02/egypt-a-classic-case-of-rapid-net-export-decline-and-a-look-at-global-net-exports/

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7385   (figure 6)

 

If you read this, it will also give insight into what happened in Egypt. To futher illustrate this, go to

http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/

Select Egypt.  You may want to play around with other countries to get a feel for what is going on.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:57 | 1026172 AbandonShip
AbandonShip's picture

So in addition our fresher oil has a downtrend in energy yield.  Excellent! Can't we just print more of it?  Works for debt.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 16:44 | 1026389 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  No, not fresher, just a changing composition of what is called oil...

Thermodynamics is a cruel heartless bitch...

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 12:07 | 1026210 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

not sure our grandkids will ever fly on an airplane 

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:32 | 1026101 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

Just saw protesters in Kuwait starting up against the government.  Nice.

You can't tell what is actionable information anymore from what is market pumping dis-information.  Which means everyone is on their own.

No real newz out of Bahrain either.

Is the House of Saud in da house?

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:48 | 1026142 CrashisOptimistic
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There is no actionable information.  Oil is not about markets.  It's about death.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:37 | 1026114 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

The Saudi Arabia National Guard (SANG) is already on full military alert and began building "pre-battle" inventories of ammo, food, and fuel. I have two very close friends in SA, one who has just completed a major SANG order for provisions. SANG was one of the first on the scene in the Gulf war.

"Units include 3 Mechanized Brigades; 6 Infantry Brigades; 2 Separate Battalions; Security Force to include a Special Brigade, Special Security Battalions, Military Police Battalions and two Guard Battalions; Headquarters and Regional Signal Units; Regional Logistics Base Commands; one Engineer Battalion; Medical to include Military Field Medical Command, King Fahd Hospital, Falcon Peninsula Hospital, and Regional Medical Units"

 

 

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:38 | 1026117 economists_do_i...
economists_do_it_with_models's picture

Perfect storm right now between QE2 ending/no QE3 and things calming down in the Middle East for the dollar to strengthen and oil to drop.  Energy stocks like COP & MRO are very overbought in my humble opinion.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 12:08 | 1026217 web bot
web bot's picture

I think you're right.

What's your view on PMs, especially silver?

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 12:55 | 1026434 Shoegazer
Shoegazer's picture

There's no way in hell I'm betting money against QE3.  I don't see Benny telling the banks and treasury that he's closing the free money tap.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 11:44 | 1026128 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

It's not about markets.  Oil won't even be traded publicly in a few years.  Most oil long term contracts are now non public.

Oil is the alpha asset of civilization.  Life at the 6.8 billion level depends on it.  It is one of very, very few that disappears entirely with use.  It's not infinite.  The planet's volume is not infinite so it cannot be.

Therefore it has to be gone or all but gone sometime.  Whenever that time is, rest assured there will be a majority who deny that time has arrived.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 12:42 | 1026368 FrankIvy
FrankIvy's picture

I've always thought that somewhere between 200 and 300 a barrel the .gov steps in to the oil market, ending public trading in the U.S..

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 13:39 | 1026611 flattrader
flattrader's picture

Crash,

>>>Most oil long term contracts are now non public.<<<

Could you elaborate?

I am assuming you mean direct contracts with producers/suppliers like BP.

Or are you talking about something different?

Thanks in advance.

 

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 18:27 | 1026629 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

So called sovereign deals. Google up the relationship between Venezuela and China. That is one I am definately aware of. Oil that would otherwise be on the free market is tied up in quid pro quo or fixed contract price deals. I believe, but may be mistaken, a similar relationship exists between China and Iran.

Edit: I should add these sovereign deals are part of net exports discussed above, but the oil is not on the open market.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 12:16 | 1026233 earlthepearl
earlthepearl's picture

Do you think contract expriations in a few weeks will cause a pull-back

is some of the Oil future ETFs a la USO?

 

I just closed out some call options on this ratioanlization, but now i think I just had a

shaky hand

 

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 12:42 | 1026364 FrankIvy
FrankIvy's picture

Have conviction because you've done your due diligence, follow through, never second guess.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 12:27 | 1026247 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

On Morning Joe today former Senator Judd Gregg along with former Presidential canidate and White HOuse avidisor under Ford, Nixon and Reagan- Patrick James Buchanan

...said a "collapse of the dollar= near certainty" and that US Foreign Policy would soon "change completely".

Who is telling the truth, folks?

I don't want to be caught with my pants down if I can help it! I am scared!

People's lives are being messsed with!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036789/ns/msnbc_tv-morning_joe/

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 12:33 | 1026320 FrankIvy
FrankIvy's picture

Any Saudi issues means +200, no questions asked.  Everything is hanging on by a thread.  KSA having riots and or a couple of pipeline attacks sends oil booming, because, if you don't have your contracts set when the KSA is forced to cut exports by 25%, you may not get any oil.  Oil at 220 is much better than no oil.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 12:43 | 1026375 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Going back to Early 2008, we bottomed at 69.69. Still have a little wiggle room.

http://www.chartingstocks.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/US_dollar.png

http://www.fxtrademaker.com/usdx.htm

 

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 13:01 | 1026457 r101958
r101958's picture

Since 11am somebody has been buying dollars. Taking down gold, silver and oil. Not for long me thinks.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 13:24 | 1026548 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

Was that Larry Kudlow arguing for the end of QE2 and/or a rate hike to achieve a stronger dollar on  CNBC to lower oil and all commodity prices?  And he got no opposition.....even from Liesman (who said $4/gas was the freak out price). Or was I hallucinating and/or flashback.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 13:28 | 1026565 99er
Mon, 03/07/2011 - 14:26 | 1026783 Scorpio69er
Scorpio69er's picture

re: "Geopolitical Scenario 3: Unrest spreads to Saudi Arabia"

 

Saudis mobilise thousands of troops to quell growing revolt

Saudi Arabia was yesterday drafting up to 10,000 security personnel into its north-eastern Shia Muslim provinces, clogging the highways into Dammam and other cities with busloads of troops in fear of next week's "day of rage" by what is now called the "Hunayn Revolution".

http://goo.gl/1ZURq

 

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