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Some Respite For The Dollar In The Next 24 Hours?
Submitted by Nic Lenoir of ICAP
The topside resistance of the assumed-to-be bull flag pointed out this morning in EURUSD has held so far. A quick look at the dollar index over the last few days of trading indicates we are facing support here at least in the near term. Even if we cannot claim to have made a bottom in the medium to long term, it looks we should at least retest 75.80 before another wave of selling.
Crude Oil confirms it has lost any correlation with any other market, or reality for that matter. Some people think it is linked to the suicide bombing killing several members of the Iranian guard, personally I think it is simply the market reaching the "euphoria" phase of the bubble. This is when correlations break down, record for number of consecutive up days are broken, and we start hearing about $200 target projections. The latter hasn't happened yet to my knowledge... unless some analysts claim their predictions from last summer ignoring the 75% sell-off that happened in the meantime... We see targets at 80.94 and 91.19 for oil on this move. Personally I would not be surprised if we see the $91 mark. I would rather focus on trying to identify the top however than fueling the fire.
Good luck trading,
Nic
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It won't happen!
every anti-dollar trade is working. why fight the tape? market can remain irrational longer than i can remain solvent while fighting the government's anti-logic
Another day, another 'dollar rally!' call from Bob Prech...er, I mean Nic the stick. Keep calling them out broken clock; you will be right eventually. Or not.
US$ has been working on a fifth wave extension since June or so. Never can tell when those things will finish. However, it has been trading in range, rather than in a free-fall, which makes for a good long call. Picking the bottom is a whole different issue. Has to break the upper trend line, with conviction, to pick the bottom.
Too many Dollar Bears. Oversold & time for a bounce. Only question is when.
Enough! It is time for a well-orchestrated dress rehearsal of a dollar panic, to see where the cards are held. Then, Lucy will yank the football and Charlie Brown...ah, poor Charlie Brown.
Dollar just fell through the floor, at 5:03 PM EST.
Nic, I'd like to see that neckline broken in the flag first. Likely the point of a breakout or failure as the case maybe. Good Luck!
http://tinyurl.com/yza7rdc
Looking for WTIC to $89 or $91 if it runs all the way to target.
If the Chinese will not allow the yuan to appreciate in relation to the dollar, dollar devaluation is the manner in which imbalances can be steered toward parity. It's a bit like mercantile warfare lite. Such maneuvers are less likely to trigger challenges within the WTO, since devaluation is not so clearly documented as potential new policies erecting protectionist trade elements. It could become a rather messy scrum, as currency actions feed counteractions.
Still, automated assumptions about ever-upward stock pricing based upon ever-downward dollar valuation is leading to distortions. (And if that were the only thing contributing to distortions.) It's a bit like watching the engine on the stand, running at high RPMs, without oil, and wondering when the thing is going to seize-up.
"It's a bit like watching the engine on the stand, running at high RPMs, without oil, and wondering when the thing is going to seize-up."
That was kick-ass.
AAPL results rocketed the futures and that smashed the Greenback.
They didn't have any results. They simply changed accounting practices. Geez. Why is NO ONE aware that this was going to happen.
I could have predicted a 15 percent sales increase on apple on September 24th just by reading this.
http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/1556128/apple-sales-increase
Yeah. Dollar rally. ;)
We're lucky if it'll hold 75.2.
Doubt it.
That didn't take long.
75.149
LOL Don't ya love it when answers come quick.
Says it all here:
http://lh5.ggpht.com/_Iz4sLjjtkLc/StxzXJ74E4I/AAAAAAAAC04/gLblXSUrGkI/s1...
God, lets save the dollar please. This is an embarrassment.There is no free markets, only welfare capitalism and socialism for capitalism. good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news
this is some good analysis.
http://blog.atimes.net/?p=1180
RBA just put a nail in the coffin. No respite tonight, unless there is a big reversal (could happen, although AUD/USD pushed over .93)
Never bet against the FED - sell the dollar while you still can; but a word of caution - do not buy the Japanese yen for longer than 6 months horizon - major debate on monetary policies incl devaluation taking place in the new cabinet there to save Japanese economy. In many circles in Asia, it's believed to be the only logical and urgent thing to do to save Japan, and they need to move faster than Uncle Sam after Uncle Sam's pact with the mercenary Chinese last month to hold their currencies at record low at the expense of the Europeans, Japan and the developing countries. First South Korea, then Malaysia and now Brazil are fighting back selling their own currencies. The old men of Europe would fight too if Latvia falls while they watch the fat British cats smirk at them now that parity between Euro and GBP is expected within 6 months. If you can, do not hold more than minimal fiat currencies because the spectre of repeated devaluation is all but certain.