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Someone Is Lying
The most recent reading of the increasignly unreliable UMichigan Consumer Confidence index was recently at multiyear highs, yet today the ABC Consumer Index turned down yet again. The most recent reading was -49, a one point reduction from -48 in the prior week, and below the SM Average of -48.57.
Not surprisingly, this week 43% of Americans feel the economy is getting worse, up 12% from last month! Only 44% rate their personal finances positively and only 24% think it is a good time to "buy things."
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Yes, someone is lying, and it is NOT the consumer.
HTF SUPERCOMPUTERS DON'T LIE!!!
Oh yes they do. It is their very nature and mission.
Keep pressing,
Chris Monoki
Yes, someone is lying, and it's not the consumer.
Tyler, you are a smart boy, this cannot be the first time you have had that thought (today)?
relentless is one (nice) way of putting it.....
the average consumer has never been worse off, they are poorer, less able to pay their debts, their housing values continue to deflate, your public education system is (or should be) an embarrassment, and they are about to get bent over with a worthless health-care bill (which will be spun as a great win for the middle class). but, they can still drive through their nearest obesity factory and supersize it.
sorry, i am extra bitchy today (2 many calls from my mother reminding me of upcoming high holiday events)
Happy New Year!!!...;-)
Thank you!!!!!!
Not actually until Friday (hence i have 3 more full days to be reminded).
I know, start fasting now...;-) So you can eat everything on your plate...
Gut Yontiff & L'shanah tovah
Gut Yontiff & L'shanah tovah
High holidays? I had no idea that Jews are stoners.
Lizzy I enjoyed that post.
The consumer would be better off if he stopped thinking of himself as a consumer, and started thinking of himself as a citizen. Cut down on the mindless consumption and starve the beast.
Lizzy gets lot of attention. I have started thinking that I should also TRY to draw her attention. This will result in me getting all the attention. :)
Good one. I miss the vaselin stuff,Lizzy. Any new thoughts regarding those daily usable stuff.
You can guess which one I believe.
They're all lying. The question is to what degree.
Maybe they were polling football fans at the Big House after the game Saturday. I do doubt though not too many fans from Detroit made it to Ann Arbor to participate. Judging from the daily carnage being reported in the Detroit papers, the city should be under martial law within the next 6 months.
“I don't think it's indicative of the nation's mood. You know, I don't think we ought to be distracted by that."
-David Axelrod
Although this was in response to the tea party in D.C it just seems to fit magically in this article.
Just move along people... there is nothing to see here... and even if there was we wouldn't tell you... we would just find a different positive signal to distract you... and have CNBS play it up on Squawk.
The ABC asks their questions to the readers of ZH, while UMich asks viewers of CNBC.
No one's lying. Michigan is at 70 and ABC is at 49. That means that 70% of the people are optimistic 49% of the time.
Doublethink is:
“
The power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them....To tell deliberate lies while genuinely believing in them, to forget any fact that has become inconvenient, and then, when it becomes necessary again, to draw it back from oblivion for just so long as it is needed, to deny the existence of objective reality and all the while to take account of the reality which one denies — all this is indispensably necessary. Even in using the word doublethink it is necessary to exercise doublethink. For by using the word one admits that one is tampering with reality; by a fresh act of doublethink one erases this knowledge; and so on indefinitely, with the lie always one leap ahead of the truth.
---Orwell 1984
I completely agree with half of everything you did not say.
Was 1984 a book about religion?
"If there's no credible threat of liquidation, then capitalism doesn't work--and that's true whether we're talking about peanut butter manufacturers or hedge funds. After so many bailouts, it is critically important to design a system in which the winners survive and the losers get flushed away." E.W.
Wow, I guess we can thank Wilson for making the word "lying" ok to use. Next thing you know "murder" will replace "suicide." What is the world coming too...
Fuck if I know, I have more history than future!
What is this? I don't even.
Must be celebrating the "high" holidays early.
This comment referred to a zh post a few hours earlier, "James McDonald, CEO Of Rockefeller & Co., Has Committed Suicide." Check it out and pay attention.
Even though I am a U of Michigan graduate, I gave up years ago in finding much if any value in this poll. It has been shown to be worthless at predicting anything with any degree of accuracy.
BEAR blow out!!
Why are we still trading guy's/girls ??
STOP... just STOP.
Get LOW get Cash - JUST STOP!
How Many of you have the balls or the gut's to stop trading.
Too stop feeding the beast as I have done. How many of you can log on to your daily trading screens and do nothing?
You complain here daily, but what actions do you take to stop the madness?
Let the MoMo's have it!
Give them the rope and let them hang!! October '09 comes.
Bear blow out? lolwut?
I'll believe it when I see it. Right now, I believe my technicals. They've made me money, and you haven't.
To put a finer point on it: You can't effect a hell of a lot of change when you're poor.
Don't starve yourself to starve the beast; the beast is a lot bigger than you.
Your playing the game they want. Stop.
The "change" ... " effect" of which you speak. Please elaborate.
Continuing to trade under a stacked deck leads to losses eventually.
The market is there for you to make money. When there is serious momentum for you to ride, ride it.
Yes, the market can turn on a dime, but if you're smart, you can cut your losses in a hurry.
As for effecting change:
Step 1 is to get rich.
Step 2 is to use that money to effect change. Advertise. Raise awareness. Support Zero Hedge. Buy commercials. Lobby a lawmaker for better regulation. Raise an army and call yourself Spartacus. Whatever.
Without step 1, ***THERE IS NO STEP 2***.
Yes - I agree with Step#1
However - Vegas Rules apply. The house has a set of rules that will win eventually. Those rules are now firmly in place. All I'm saying is realize the rules and stop playing the game least you be taken out of the game before you can aid in STEP #2.
Those that do not understand the Rules - STOP Trading now.
Look, Goldman Sachs will win no matter what. If you're trying to beat them, you're nuts; you're not going to. The best you can hope to do is make some money and effect some change.
If you think staying out of the market will help you survive, you're wrong. The liquidity is coming back into the system through the casino; staying out of the casino will only leave you farther from the liquidity expansion and more subject to inflation.
I speak not to disprove these wise and honorable men, but I speak what I do know. I cannot disprove Bernanke's statement that this recession is over, I can only disprove his statements from last year.
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
I understand if you feel that the markets are manipulated. They are, and they always have been. They are not perfect. I am not defending them. They are a human invention and therefore flawed by humans.
I feel they are manipulated more so than the past (at least what I recall). Nevertheless, it's a shade of gray. For instance, were the markets less manipulated in the great Bull Run of the late 90s? Were the markets less manipulated in the 1987?
Besides, what the fuck dude, we are here because WE WANT TO MAKE MONEY. Period. It's called capitalism. The game is to figure out the game, and hopefully bring home some scratch.At least that's the game today.
The beast will continue to be the beast, with or without us; do you really think the robots give a shit if a few retail investors join in, win or lose? No.
Remember, the same "traders" who ramp this up will be the same who drive it into ground - when the time comes.
^^ What he said.
Marge - My comments are directed at the newbies that frequent this site. They are NOT aware of the truth's we know to be. I give them fair warning so as to help those that are unaware yet come here in search of guidance.
We know, We see, We should pass on to those that cannot see.
This site seeks to educate. Those that are not skilled in the rules of trading today will be crushed.
Will we let them sink in order that we can say "I told you so", or will we help them stay alive so that they can help us in the future??
This site doesn't teach trading. It teaches economics and gives great insights on Wall Street. Two totally different things in today's market.
In fact, it would be terrible if we were to use it as a source of trading tips; anyone who followed Tyler's advice would have lost quite a bit of money since March. I lost $100K in a day myself going super-bearish on inverse ETFs at a time when it was very inappropriate to do so.
"Don't trade" is not one of the rules of trading today. You're not helping anyone.
Missing_Link - Please re-read my post!.
"This site doesn't teach trading."
I Never said this site teaches trading. I SAID this site EDUCATES.
Missing_Link:
My Friend, Your fighting yourself here.
Your defending a cause that is at it's core, indefensible.
STOP! Please. We are are the same side. I seek to help those that are well below your/our trading grade.
You seem to want to perpetuate the class system that got us to this point. YET you rail against it daily on this blog!!
Help me/us help those that are unaware! You seem to be of means and savey in trading. Make this blog something that aids people as uposed to making them feel stupid.
"...anyone who followed Tyler's advice would have lost quite a bit of money since March."
I don't believe TD has ever given advice in terms of trading or making an investment.
True
...."Besides, what the fuck dude, we are here because WE WANT TO MAKE MONEY. Period. It's called capitalism. The game is to figure out the game, and hopefully bring home some scratch. At least that's the game today."....
Marge - If I repeated your phrase/quote in front of a Judge in the Enron/BofA/Keating/Boesky/Worldcom/Kozlowski-Tyco/HealthSouth/Charles Ponzi, trials,
....How would it stand up??
Would you still stand behind what you said in the name of profits??
Yeah .... Get back to me on how the above mentioned "rapist of capitalism" differ from your philosophy of "we are here because WE WANT TO MAKE MONEY. Period. It's called capitalism."...
Uhhhh...
NO REPLY = AGREEMENT = NO DEFENSE = TRUTH
I am not sure what you are saying? I fail to see any similarity at all between those who trade this market and the scumbags who perpetrated colossal criminal fraud and stole billions from others.
Are you saying that anyone who trades this market, perceived manipulation nothwithstanding, is committing a crime/fraud? I hope not, and I have no idea what you are saying.
What I AM saying is that (according to MY perception of this site) most folks on this site seek a deeper, clearer understanding of economics and how current markets are reacting in order to increase or protect their wealth. While I am sure there are exceptions, most are not primarily interested in markets/economics for academic reasons. I sense a much more pragmatic, yet intellectually honest, curious nature to most folks here.
Again, I simply don't think that boycotting the market is going to prove much, however, it make be the right thing for some.
Capisce?
I can't believe people accept this Wall Street bullshit just for money. The enablers to this crap are like gang rapists. Sure we knew that it was wrong that the first dude was banging her, but what the hell we might as well get some too. Too bad Madoff won't be pulling a prison train as that bitch and the rest of the wall street pukes deserve it.
I closed my brokerage account end 2007.
Cash for clunkers + the Detroit Tigers+ U of M beating Notre Dame...........there's no better time to be in a union than than 2009........
Don't forget giant tariffs on any companies that can produce cheaper than unions.
Mission accomplished....
I can't believe I miss GW
http://pragcap.com/david-tice-the-sp-is-going-below-400
No one is lying, per se. They are just not telling you that the UMich is conducted in Cramerica
Rasputin update...
"There is absolutely no question that re-igniting
the housing bubble is priority number one for Uncle Sugar and the Fed,
for the following reasons:
1. Uncle currently owns (under "conservatorship") Fannie, Freddie and the FHLBs.
2. The Fed is buying Agency MBS like they are fresh hotcakes
3. There are literally TRILLIONS of fiatscos of derivatives that
are directly based on the prices of McMansions and/or the cashflow from
all the sheeple homedebtors (such as MBS/CDO/Squareds/Cubeds)
4. AIG is a major counterparty to many of the firms that are being destroyed by the housing collapse
...so you can bet your last fiatsco that all the stops will be
pulled out in order to attempt to re-invigorate the housing bubble.
The next steps will be:
1. Uncle Sugar buys up ten million McMansions at an average price
of 200k fiatscos per Mc, for a total of two trillion nightcrawlers.
2. He then offers the sheeple homedebtors zero-down, low-interest,
forty-year (or longer) "loans" if the sheeps will agree to sign off for
the full price of the McBox
3. The Fed will buy up each and every one of the "Patriot Housing Bonds" that Uncle will issue to fund this program
This is how desperate the situation--and TPTB--are becoming. The
Fed and Uncle Sugar are in way too deeply at this point to just stand
idly by and let housing continue to fall, even if it means they must
trash the U.S. fiatsco/nightcrawler to accomplish their goals to keep
housing elevated.
We are about to find out who is going to blink first...the Fed, or the U.S. Treasury market.
At this point, the Fed is a mere 16 billion nightcrawlers away
from completing their promised 300-billion purchase of Uncle Sugar's
debt.
Then what happens?
Well, one thing's for sure: Uncle will continue issuing:
100 billion fiatscos per month, every month, month-after-month, for the next ten years or so
...of brand new debt, PLUS what ever has to be rolled over of existing debt.
So, the questions going forward are:
1. Will the Chinese, Japanese, Taiwanese, and OPEC debt enablers
continue to step up and swallow U.S. Treasuries like fresh
hotcakes...at low interest rates?
2. If not the above group, will the U.S. citizens be willing to
rush out of money-market funds (which will soon no longer be
backstopped by Uncle) into Treasuries?
...and if the answer to numbers one and two above is "No", then
will the Fed stand idly by while Uncle's auctions fail outright, or
interest rates on Treasuries shoot up to 1981 levels of double digits?
I'll let you be the judge."
very nicely laid out robo.
one item......i presume the recent positive hints at "saving" by Geithner and Obama's talk about US Savings Bonds (ex. issuing tax returns in US Savings Bonds) goes to your number 2 of pulling US citizens into the gov't paper market?
+1
please convert this into a "contributor article": this is a must read
EDIT : just realized that this is realted to Spocks post at ( http://forums.wallstreetexaminer.com/index.php?showtopic=836450&st=0&p=8... )
I re-read this post Robo and I gotta go along with 70652 here...this deserves a wider read by others. Hey, you can still put up some good pics too.....hot chicks handing out US Patriot Bond brochures, sexy realtor babes offering to jack up the HUD-1s......
Classic robo; It's simple and right to the point. I disagree though, I believe FED will blink. I believe FED did blink, that's why they are dropping the back. My bet is that the whole $ slide is here because they realized the helio drop stopped working. The idea is to import some inflationary pressure. In addition it might provide a boost to local production. Look forward to drop in prices despite drop in greenback and continuation of false promises of FED commitment to the strong currency.
I just don't see this crisis going by without a final deflationary crack to the backs of the weak. This is too good of an opportunity for the strong players in the shadows to grab a whole lot on the cheap. The 'TBTF' fronts will still have access to what they need, and everyone pushing for a new global standard for 'regulation' will get their day in the sun. The public is primed to catch a few sacrificial scapegoats and capitulate on some 'real change.'
Or, they could just pull a bank holiday to get everything done behind the scenes and come out with new regulations. Then the dollar wouldn't have to go through strength over time and cause market pain day after day (holiday would surely cause USD selling across the board).
As I write this, USD is on another precipice of breaking down (against the EUR, AUD, CAD, CHF. already did against SGD).
classic post & brilliant analysis rasputin.
please come back more often...
I'm waiting for the black swan....she's out there, and she will have her moment in the sun before long.
Yet they say this would have been too painful for those currently in power, and only they can help us. And they are all honorable men.
yea but, I bet the bankers didn't see this a coming...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0V2QWSMaoQ&feature=channel_page
(1) No one is lying, although a measurement might be flawed.
(2) One must question why U of Mich has grown more important to the Conferernce Board's Consumer Confidence Index, particularly consumer expectations.
Years ago, the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence was the key indicator. Smart money followed more closely the consumer expectations results. Keep in mind, too, that the Conference Board also publishes the Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) Index. Then why rather suddenly U of Mich's index is of greater importance, while just a year or two ago is was the prerequisite to the official number -- the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index -- much like ADP's employment numbers to the BLS' more touted numbers (however flawed).
I don't know how ABC News measures its index, but I can assure you that God didn't know it four years ago. Again, it was the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence, seconded (but preceded) by Univ. of Michigan.
But to say that one is lying is the sensentionalism this website shouldn't indulge in. Rather, question the methods. Question why one is more important than the other.
Tyler Durden(s) have excellent posts and reports. I'm fascinated by the detail. What I'm NOT intriqued is both the negative sensationalism AND the perma bear stance. More, the use of sentionalism diminishes the objectivity that Tyler Durden(s) prides itself on.
And while I love the site, and all the analysis and passing/sharing of others' information, I have yet to see this group make any attempt to value domestic equities, opine on the dollar's value or guestimate where T rates will go. But the constant negative drumbbeat is just as loud as the pom-pom cheering of CNBC and its ilk.
Keep pressing,
Chris Monoki
"...I have yet to see this group make any attempt to value domestic equities, opine on the dollar's value or guestimate where T rates will go. "
Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems to me I see plenty about the dollar's value on a regular basis at ZH (I'm pretty sure about this because currencies have always been one of my weaknesses). There is an enormous amount of print devoted to Treasuries as well as equities. If your looking for zh to make a call on valuations of equities or prognostications of rates, it doesn't seem to me to be one of their objectives. If wrong I'm sure TD will correct me post haste.
Deadhead:
I believe you are incorrect. I haven't seen an official ZH contributor opine whether the dollar is currently over- or undervalued vis-a-vis other fiat currencies or a substitute, such as gold. True, ZH and Tyler Durden highlight the current weakening trend and its potential detriment to either the broader economy, purchasing power or influence on aggregate demand. And true ZH has also highlighted deflationary concerns, predominantly by posting the likes of Rosenberg. Truly I find these posts intellectually stimulating. Yet, exactly what is ZH's belief in the dollar? Will it continue to decline? Perhaps post new lows? Will it bottom out and strengthen? If either case is plausible, does one look more probable than the other?
Me, I think the dollar is making a secular double bottom and that it is poised to strengthen (perhaps markedly) on deflationary pressure resulting from over-indebtedness (Fisher, 1933) and that on a relative basis, the dollar will prove to be both a safe haven and its purchasing power stronger than of other fiat currencies, chiefly the euro.
That if this is correct, then domestic equities might correct to the downside to a magnitude yet known because of its own influence on corporate profits and aggregate demand and confidence. Deflationary pressure will also exacerbate this situation. It's a self-feeding event (reflexivity).
I acknowledge that at times ZH states stocks are overvalued. This isn't helpful; the magnitude of its overvaluation would be helpful and intuitive. But you won't find it here.
I believe that this rally is a bear market rally. I am not chasing stocks, though I had benefited greatly from the initial uptrend. I'm bearish and believe that the economy, aggregate demand, housing and employment will either reverse their hints of an uptrend or again post worsening results, something that would be a surprise.
But I'm not a perma-bear nor dooms-dayer. I'm a libertarian and believe that in the end, the creative mind will ultimately find a way out, not matter how silly and unreasonable policy-making has become or how wide the deficit has become. That at some point productivity will resurface again; its timing is the unknown. That with this, yes I'm bearish over the interim. But I not looking for every morsel to prove my stance. Rather I'm looking for morsels to show me what my stance should be.
Keep pressing,
Chris Monoki
I cannot speak for ZH. My impression is that TD et. al. are not particularly interested in making specific prognostications. Your thoughts are best directed to TD.
I recall approx 3-4 weeks ago TD expressed an opinion on the USD but in case I'm wrong, I'll leave it at that and refer you to the above paragraph, 3rd sentence.
best to you.
Interesting article buried a little far down on bloomberg...talking about the "sugar high" of the one-time stimulus as we did back in 2001 and wondering we'll get a similar result this time:
chart: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aIWWbPVC5XAY
story: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aIWWbPVC5XAY
For Bernanke is an honorable man. As is Paulson, and Geithner, and Blankfein; all honorable men. They have all said that government knows best, and the market knows not, and have eliminated marked to market rules, for they are honorable men.
Why are you plagiarizing my post? You too are honorable.
I believe ABC is not lying and by doing that I`m making easy money... It`s a dirty game, hail HAL9K :|
mozeltov
From Bloomberg's Economic Calendar on the retail sales report this AM:
Highlights
Retail sales in August made a sizeable comeback-boosted by cash-for-clunkers and higher gasoline prices. Wow, is it just me? "Things are looking better cause we convinced people to saddle themselves with some more debt for a new car that they probably don't need and we jacked up the price of oil so they'll pay more for gas but that'll help the retail sales green shoots..."
I truly can't believe it but doesn't anyone in this stupid gov't/market whatever realize that people actually need to have or make money to be able to spend anything? And if they don't start making a dent on this mountain of debt they will be heading towards insolvency.
Oh, and once you stripped out all the BS and jacked up stimulus and gas prices retail sales were 2 tenths of a percent higher than expected which as anyone knows is a rounding error or just a revision cushion for next month.
Why was the dollar so low LAST year from around March through July? Traded between $71 - 74.
The dollar seemed to catch a case of reality. Thankfully taking a few handfuls of CDO's took care of the problem
Tyler,
Why would you ever trust anything from the University of Michigan?
Their football coach Rich Rodriguez, blantantly cheated over the summer by violating NCAA rules on the hours of practicing per week.
The officiating last weekend was borderline attrocious and virtually scandalous in blown calls.
Michigan is an overrated state school.
ABC Consumer Confidence is not lying.
monoki... speaking of questioning, why do you have your head stuck firmly up your ass?
Karl says their all lying:
WARNING: Deflationary Collapse Dead Ahead
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1439-WARNING-Deflationary-Co...
Ugly question and inappropriare image, Arnold.
Robotrader #70536
In response to your question, have you considered that Ben Bernanke "inherited" the problem from his predecessor ?
Well, give him the benefit of the doubt. Ben's has almost saved the American economy single-handledly and now he's got to put his foot on the QE pedal because he has to mop up the 'global savings glut'.
People, we gotta ask the POTUS to send another stimulus bill to Congress, you know that 787 billion ?
Thats just a tick on the cow's behind.
We're gonna need a real humdinger, maybe like xx trillions this time.
There are some people grumbling on this board like life is not as great as it used to be in this here US.
Well, everybody's gonna get fistfuls of BIG bills just as soon as we get a 2nd stimulus package passed.
Now, everybody happy ?
lol
PLEASE!!!!!
everyone, calm down!!!!
UMichigan Consumer Confidence report is brought to you by ex-Goldman boys. Now, where do you suppose they get their bonuses, oops sorry, I mean information from?
We have reached the singularity. Division by zero. The fury and wrath of the common man is being awakened and unleashed. That unease you are feeling is your subconcious telling you that heads are going to roll, maybe yours.