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Something Breaks: ES, Carry Crosses Tumble

Tyler Durden's picture


Out of the blue, ES just dropped a good 5 points. Yes, in the good old PCP (Pre-Central Planning) days, this was perfectly normal, but since now we have a whole army of millisecond, algorithmic robots and a whole floor at 33 Liberty dedicated exclusively to making sure things like this never happen, it is rather disturbing. And in tried and true (anti) correlation fashion, the USD/JPY are jumping against all carry crosses. As far as we know this was not predicated by any news: granted, export news out of Japan were horrendous (12.5% Y/Y drop), but those should have been mostly priced in. Having observed the overnight futures every day for the past two years, this kind of thing "just doesn't happen" any more, which is why we are eagerly searching for what may have been the catalyst. If we find one, we will promptly update. In the meantime remember: he who defects first, defects best.

ES upward channel now solidly broken:

One potential explanation is in the form of the following report from the WSJ that banks face potential liabilities of over $17 billion on fraudclosure, but we doubt it.

State attorneys general told the nation's five largest banks on Tuesday they face a potential liability of at least $17 billion in civil lawsuits if a settlement isn't reached to address improper foreclosure practices, according to people familiar with the matter. The figure doesn't cover additional billions of dollars in potential claims from federal agencies such as the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Justice Department. State and federal officials haven't proposed a specific comprehensive settlement figure, but Tuesday's discussions represented the first effort to formally quantify potential liability.

This is precisely as we predicted when we reported on the $5 billion counteroffer from the banks to the first suggested $20 billion AG settlement: "this is merely a counteroffer to the $20 billion
preliminary bid. Which means that the final number to put the entire
robosigning affair behind us will be about $10 billion give or take. And
banks can go back to doing what they do best: post 0 trading losses per
quarter, and other such infinite sigma events. " in other words, following the initial $20 billion bid, and the banks' $5 billion counteroffer, a settlement will be found in the middle. $17 billion sounds like a nice, solid 2nd round bid.

Another possible explanation is that the market is reacting to the tumble of Glencore shares in their HK debut:

Glencore shares were trading at HK$64.65 compared with the offer price of HK$66.53 each. Last week, Glencore raised $10 billion through a London and Hong Kong initial public offering, giving the Swiss commodities trader the firepower for acquisitions.

Glencore's London-listed shares were stuck under water on their first day on Tuesday, dashing hopes of a strong start after it set a mid-range flotation price for London's largest-ever offering.

We doubt this too: GETCO deals with such a puny distrubance in the farce with a few million channel stuffing ES bids (and offers) each and every morning.


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Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:13 | 1307451 kato
kato's picture

was waiting for oyu to find out what it was. if you do not know yet, who does?

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:46 | 1307567 Don Quixotic
Don Quixotic's picture

No0b question: what does "ES" stand for?

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:53 | 1307591 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

E-Mini S&P 500 futures

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:09 | 1307761 silberblick
silberblick's picture

Click below to see a visual graph of Bankster's dirty needs arranged according to Abraham Maslow's hierarchy of needs:

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:13 | 1307637 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

For example,

(futures on the S&P)

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:44 | 1307705 suldog
suldog's picture

Futures contract for S&P 500

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:57 | 1307968 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

It's a good question.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:06 | 1307981 Goldenhands57
Goldenhands57's picture

Some Futures Contracts are traded "mini" which is 1/5 the size (and cost) of a full Contract. A Full S&P Contract has quite a large Margin Mini is accessable to more folks.  ES is a very activly traded Futures ..the Volumns are in fact astounding in a normal trade day! ES is one of favored of Futures Day Traders because of the ability to both enter and exit a position in very short periods of time. This is the symbol of this particular Commodity contract..ES  

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 03:28 | 1308141 DaBernank
DaBernank's picture

Excellent description, Gh57.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 07:15 | 1308277 msamour
msamour's picture

Best description i've seen so far, Thanks.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:21 | 1307658 luckylogger
luckylogger's picture

Just a little shock and awe to show Bennie boy what will happen.

enjoy and trade accordingly !

should be fun.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:46 | 1307845 bigelkhorn
bigelkhorn's picture

I think this is something bigger set for the day. The market has been slow and wet and weak monday and tuesday. I think this means something HMMMMM

I subscribe to the guy from australia and his FFT economic newsletter at  that guy has called many big events before they have happend, including the stock market crash in 2008 and the current financial collapse of the US. (currently happening) I found him from a friend last year, and he has some important work.

His oil calls are insane, and I have been making good money with them. He is well worth a look, if you want to keep two steps ahead of the sheeple out there.

I am worried about my financial future. Is anyone else nervous out there?

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:52 | 1307956 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

Stop the spam, dickhead.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 05:03 | 1308191 BigJim
BigJim's picture

I have seen this SPAM so many times now. Fuck off, twat.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 06:57 | 1308256 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

"Is anyone else nervous out there?" 

Do they actually put that line in a handbook for you stupid fuckers?  It sure seems like 5 or 6 hundred of you have used it.



Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:45 | 1307955 Two Towers AU AG
Two Towers AU AG's picture

Heard some news about someone buying about 40000 GLD Aug/Sept Calls the investment required was about 50 Million. Any idea who it might be.. and why bet on gold price rise in spite of rising USD... or is there somone with an expectation of USD falling sharply.. which would be in case the debt limit talks are not successful... just wondering...

The time of the FRN is over.. The time of Silverrrrrrr Bitchezzzzzzzz has come..

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:49 | 1308025 Don Quixotic
Don Quixotic's picture
OK, so I see some relatively big volume trading yesterday in September GLD Calls. Namely: 155, 158, 175 calls which are all out of the money. The thing is they in total only about 3,500 options traded hands at these strikes. I'll give you that the open interest for Sep Calls is huge at the 150, 155, 160, 170, and 180 strikes (all over 10,000 contracts some much more). Is that what you're referring to? I mean, there's no big open interest in the August calls that could accomodate a single trader with a position that big.  The other thing is, who the heck wrote all these calls and why? That's worth wondering about at least as much.
Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:33 | 1308010 Don Quixotic
Don Quixotic's picture

And this is why I love ZH. Thx all.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:31 | 1308075 BIGBOHICA
BIGBOHICA's picture

12:03 AM Stock index futures are steady at lower levels after a rapid 0.75% drop on rumors a snap election is to be called in Greece.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 07:20 | 1308293 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture


If you play someone else's game for 10 minutes and don't know who is the patsy, it's quite likely you.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:14 | 1307453 Belrev
Belrev's picture

Looks like another "oh my god the hell is breaking lose nothing important" moments.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:44 | 1307554 tgatliff
tgatliff's picture

Exactly... I think a better explanation is that the crazy college interns at 33 Liberty Street forgot to finish their work before they left the office.   Gosh darn kids these days...

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:45 | 1307566 FastBoat
FastBoat's picture

Raising capital to buy some of that sweet AIG offering tomorrow.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:09 | 1307763 ParaZite
ParaZite's picture

LULZ... anyone stupid enough to bail out the fed, take on their debt, and buy AIG deserves the fist fucking they are begging for. I thought it funny that has a big expose on gambling, yet nothing about the dumb fucks who are going to shift their pension money into a nearly break even deal for the fed. I would THINK the American people would grow weary of bailing out wall street and it's beloved banks. 

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:20 | 1307459 Cdad
Cdad's picture


It was predicated by the closing of the AH session, and the fact that the S&P broke down today [or rather all but broke down today].  As for that second point, Carter Worth of Oppenheimer has publicly stated that this particular breakdown [1313], after three previous breakdowns [failure to make a new high, short term trend line, medium term trend line] was nothing but good news because of the powerful snap back rally this particular breakdown would produce.

And if you can understand what I just said, which is a summary of what Carter Worth said, then you are a very different person than I.

So...anyway...on to the Plunging and Screaming phase of this phony market then.  Hi ho.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:20 | 1307473 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Ah yes, Carter "High Net" Worth, of 1313 Mockingbird lane.........

When was the last time he was right? "Pictures of Matchstick Men" now playing on TARGET TV commercial, all is weel, go back to sleep folks.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:01 | 1307753 tarsubil
Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:25 | 1307488 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

It is funny how everyone including me gets either jittery or excited over small moves now.

There seems to be a good amount of fear and worry in the market. The talking heads cant even hide it on cnbc, except rick. I still dont understand why put call ratio doesnt confirm the fear i see in all of us, even mainstream people.

It just seems we cant go down far this soon. Most sheeple i know are still in cash and bonds. Even the zheeple are mostly out of stocks.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:30 | 1307497 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Most sheeple i know are still in cash and bonds.

That is exactly why the criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers are nervous.  Almost three years and $5 trillion dollars spent...and  the largest rally in market history...and still, Average Joe does not give a shit about the stock market.

You answered your own query.

As for the put/call ratio, give it about 4.7 nanoseconds after the market opens below 1313...and then check your ratio again.  100% electronic.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:43 | 1307562 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

It is banker panic that brings markets down.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:43 | 1307700 Founders Keeper
Founders Keeper's picture

[It is banker panic that brings markets down.]---Quinvarius

No.  I expect the serious downward market action will come when banks start eating banks. TBTF vs TBTF.


Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:44 | 1307714 suldog
suldog's picture

TBTF becomes TBTR&H - Too Big To Run & Hide.

The hunters will eventually become the hunted.

Those will be fun days for sure.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:14 | 1307774 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Yessir!  Banker posse forming at the saloon.  

Set 'em up barkeep, my men ride tonight!

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:12 | 1307895 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Dick Fuld's last words.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:47 | 1307715 Land of the Ris...
Land of the Rising Sun's picture


Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:34 | 1307502 Trillax
Trillax's picture

Cdad, do you have an instant messaging account that you use (frequently or otherwise), there are questions I would like to ask that are not abusive or average run-of-the-mill troll?

One of the shortsight of the current ZH system (which I don't blame Tyler in much less the software underlying) or is there something that I don't know about, in some setting someplace that you can send private messages to other members?



Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:38 | 1307529 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Nope.  You'll have to ask your question here.  It's a brotherhood.  I do not think arranging a private room is necessary.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:54 | 1307590 Trillax
Trillax's picture

Understood and respected.  I am not in the same caliber that you, CD, Sheepdog, and others that I respect imminently, nor am I a trader by profession.  However, I would like to understand some of your comments.  You mentioned, ".. three previous breakdowns" in context this means the S&P, am I correct?  If so are you referring to: 8/1/10, 6/1/10, 2/1/09 (on average) or is my charting software on the brink or am I missing the picture completely?

I take your comments in the context of '[failure to make a new high, short term trend line, medium term trend line] was nothing but good news'.  Yet, but I look in the context of 2/1/09-> onwards on a news trend I don't see things (even with the delusion of the market that's it's "permi-good" out there) that overall things have contextually changed.

So knowing what you know -- and forgetting what I know -- beyond the manipulation in the market.. Why do we still see swings to the downside which are expected, yet every day at 11-3pm EST the market always closes in the green?

Wow.  Nevermind.  Beyond PTT and the obvious I think I just answered my own question.

 Thanks totally to the obvious anyhow.  I'm sure I'm gonna get flamed.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:03 | 1307612 Cdad
Cdad's picture

My comments about technical break points came from Cater Worth last night on Fast Money over at the BlowHorn [CNBC].  Failure to make a new S&P high was the first break, and the other two were trend lines that C. Worth drew...each of which was violated.  He then went on to suggest that the fourth break would be the jackpot!  Uh huh.

As for why the market always snaps back:  POMO.  And more to the point, the criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers have been training folk for months now to be good lil' dip buyers...which is exactly what the criminal syndicate needs now that POMO is see.

Anyway, I think you got it all figured out.



Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:08 | 1307626 Trillax
Trillax's picture

.."As for why the market always snaps back:  POMO.  And more to the point, the criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers have been training folk for months now to be good lil' dip buyers...which is exactly what the criminal syndicate needs now that POMO is see."


Thank you for leading me down the trail.  Wow.  I have some reading to do..

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:50 | 1307725 suldog
suldog's picture

The old "triple top" can be a powerful signal.

If you try three times to break through an area but fail, all of the traders on the side that was trying to 'break through' can capitulate and even reverse their positions culminating in a change of market direction.

In simpler terms, three strikes and you're out. 

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:07 | 1308037 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Yup... Often even in the shortest of time scales (ticks), it can be said that there's no such thing as a triple top, or bottom.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:17 | 1307461 SkySavage
SkySavage's picture

Still 6.5 now.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:18 | 1307465 Chicago bear
Chicago bear's picture

Maybe Panetta said, "EKIA"

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:18 | 1307468 Goldtoothchimp09
Goldtoothchimp09's picture

technical break of important support.  It's a technical move.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:22 | 1307479 Billy Shears
Billy Shears's picture

Some kind of modified flash crash?

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:18 | 1307779 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Perhaps someone is beta testing their newest flash crash modification to their HFT algo just in time to remind the state AGs that the 5 in 5 billion means 5 not 17.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:25 | 1307480 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Its a FLUSHOUT, bang the stops, shut the front door, back the truck up, if it was really The End, don't you think "they" would need the MOST bagholders? Why flush? Get Giddy widit.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:24 | 1307482 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

It could have something to do with a broken trendline from Aug '10 being broken. Over the last two years most down moves were made to look impulsive and decisive, being sharp aggressive shock and awe affairs that were then aggressively bought...May 6 being the best example. This latest down move looks like a corrective bull flag, maybe to lure some bagholders in before the maelstrom.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:26 | 1307484 gianakt
gianakt's picture

Yes Charter Worth's line in the sand as stated on CNBC was 1313 on the S&P and that the market would bounce from there as he stated on fast money. Charter has been wrong more times than he has been right.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:33 | 1307521 Goldtoothchimp09
Goldtoothchimp09's picture

his name is "Carter" for christ sake.  Only a few worse names...Todd for example.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:45 | 1307834 tsx500
tsx500's picture

Neal .

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:45 | 1307836 tsx500
tsx500's picture

Grant .

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 06:14 | 1308227 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture


Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:12 | 1307908 MacroStory
MacroStory's picture


Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:45 | 1308020 Manthong
Manthong's picture


Wed, 05/25/2011 - 06:02 | 1308222 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture


Wed, 05/25/2011 - 07:03 | 1308264 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Barack.  It sounds like you're hawking up a smoker loogie in the shower, for Chrissake.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:26 | 1307485 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture


Wed, 05/25/2011 - 07:50 | 1308343 farmer1
farmer1's picture

Buyout rumors.  Hesse has publically tossed around that option.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:31 | 1307496 Kromme Vinger
Kromme Vinger's picture

We wonder what would happen if the powers pulled their support. Do you think they ever "wonder."

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:28 | 1307499 Farmer Brown
Farmer Brown's picture

ok, so forgive my dumbassness, but what the hell is ES??

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:34 | 1307513 Kromme Vinger
Kromme Vinger's picture

emini sp index on globex

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 06:31 | 1308236 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

Your question was already answered.

Read comments to this article from the beginning

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 06:33 | 1308237 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture


Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:31 | 1307500 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Who is selling after hours? Look at RobotTrader's view of The Glorious S&P 500 in foreign currencies$spx:FXE,$spx:FXY,$spx:FXC,$spx:FXS,$spx:FXA,$spx:FXM,$spx:FXB,$spx:FXF|D

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:32 | 1307506 Asimov
Asimov's picture

1310.50 started a stop run.  There was some bearish movement in eur, usd, aud and jpy prior to /ES dumping and the sharp and sudden aud/jpy move coincided with the move down in /ES.


While it may have been news based, it looks to me like a shitload of stops stacked up under 1310.50.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:34 | 1307512 Farmer Brown
Farmer Brown's picture

sp500 mini?

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:36 | 1307519 oogs66
oogs66's picture

Maybe Asians actually realize how bad our economy is and that the ecb and fed can't hold us together any longer so they have decided to sell and since they are the only ones with real net worth, what they do matters? We don't think our shit smells but the rest of the world has noses? Or it's radiation :)

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:39 | 1307822 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

Funny, its the Asian markets that seem to make sense to me. Its the US markets, reversing the Asian market that never makes sense unless you assume its the banksters pulling their tricks to keep the Ponzi going.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:21 | 1308055 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Let's just look at the obvious... Every major market is down or treadin' water for the year, 'cept the mighty US of A, up @6%.

We don't lead this world economy... We trail it.  Anyone who thinks otherwise has bloodline to Bob Pisani.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:33 | 1307524 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

It's Bush's fault.

That's the new excuse until 2012.

Meanwhile, watch the EU/JPY cross trade; getting close to a complete technical breakdown into sub 110 terrirtory again. If it breaks hard, 100 is in play.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:37 | 1307525 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Bernanke needs an excuse (like a 20% stock market selloff) before he can justify QE-3 in fall or winter (he will not admit they are monetizing the debt).

Also, Geithner/Bernanke will need someone to buy treasuries after June (after QE-2) and before QE-3.

They will sacrifice the stock market (tolerate the selloff) to save the treasury market (people will panic, sell stocks and buy treasuries -- exactly what Geithner/Bernanke will need).

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 04:09 | 1308166 Roger Knights
Roger Knights's picture

That makes sense, given the premise. (And aren't they starting to have a bit of trouble selling Treasuries even now?)

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:37 | 1307526 Amish Pirate
Amish Pirate's picture

What ever happened to Nic Lenior updates??  He seemed to get a lot right during the sell off and rebound last summer, I'd like to hear where he sees the ES going.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:35 | 1307530 narnia
narnia's picture

frontrunning an IMF announcement?

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:35 | 1307532 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Bang Dae Ho?

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:36 | 1307534 narnia
narnia's picture

frontrunning an IMF announcement?

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:45 | 1307557 sabra1
sabra1's picture


Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:57 | 1307602 Nate H
Nate H's picture

what sort of IMF announcement would be immediately bearish for stocks? (conceptually, what would it be?)

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:54 | 1307740 narnia
narnia's picture

EUR weakness, $ strength, stock weakness. that's the formula.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:36 | 1307535 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

It was my fault.  Damned fat finger!

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:36 | 1307536 Dolemite
Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:36 | 1307537 Amish Pirate
Amish Pirate's picture

What ever happened to Nic Lenior updates??  He seemed to get a lot right during the sell off and rebound last summer, I'd like to hear where he sees the ES going.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:59 | 1307607 10044
10044's picture

He got fked during the gld/slv sell off

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:38 | 1307815 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Looks like the NSA tracker algo is out of whack again. Lots of double posts and for this one the second post is from earlier than the first.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:39 | 1307542 Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

Simple - on the currency futures re-open, the DX (US$) popped 20 points and the 6e (Euro futures) dropped like a rock under its late afternoon support of 1.4076.

Forex/equity algos have been leading the US stock market around like a dominatrix...BALL GAG and whip included. 

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:41 | 1307544 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

No doubt, the futures crash which is occuring right now is bound to send more retail stocks up to 52-week highs again.  Like DSW, up 17% today.

Or perhaps some auto parts retailers like AZO, up another 6%, now at another record high.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:05 | 1307884 Calculated_Risk
Calculated_Risk's picture

really, I didn't think there could be anyone more annoying than pissani.. you just took that spot.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:13 | 1307987 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture


You are clearly the most obnoxious person posting on this forum.



What kind of blackmail goods does this jerkhole have on you to make you to allow him to spew this kind of bullshit each and every day?

Is it something that you would not be comfortable telling your mother?

Why, Tyler, Why?

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:50 | 1308026 azengrcat
azengrcat's picture

I like to think of Robo as the bizarro-Santelli of the Zerohedge universe.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:59 | 1308034 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

No, no, no guys.  Robot is apparently a trader, looking to make $$$ in quick trades (my guess).  Momentum...

Although, RT, your taunts about General Jim Sinclair have earned you wrath among us gold fans (ex. me).  Gold has gone UP since I came here to ZH.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:19 | 1308060 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

No, no, no guys.  Robot is apparently a trader, looking to make $$$ in quick trades (my guess).  Momentum...

Although, RT, your taunts about General Jim Sinclair have earned you wrath among us gold fans (ex. me).  Gold has gone UP since I came here to ZH.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:23 | 1308063 tickhound
tickhound's picture

You know, Robo, I admire your persistence and your minority opinions here on zh (and only zh mind you... your opinions are sheep-style anywhere else).  It is, after all, what makes a market.

However, at your current pace, you may be downgrading to a 300 sq. ft. closet on the Hollywood Herdavard.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:41 | 1307545 cheesewizz
cheesewizz's picture

OKYO -- Japanese exports fell 12.5% from a year earlier in April for the second straight monthly drop, the government said Wednesday, tipping the trade balance into a deficit as damages from the March 11 earthquake continued to hobble production and shipments of industrial ...

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:46 | 1307568 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Bill Gross may do ok after all on his treasury shorts.

Japan in deficit will not be buying our treasury bonds.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:06 | 1307617 Cdad
Cdad's picture

No one [save for the Fed] is buying any appreciable treasury least not in any long term sense.  I think it is a given that Bill Gross will do just fine.


Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:14 | 1307904 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Yes, RoboFader or Bill Gross...

RoboFader or Bill Gross...

RoboFader or Bill Gross...


Who is likely to make more money and have better information?



I'm vexed.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:25 | 1307669 Boston
Boston's picture

As ES tanked,  ZB, ZN and ZF all reversed from a minor dip and are now all green.

If equities really do tank (finally) over say, the next month or so, then Bill Gross will get spanked.....even more than he's already been spanked over the last two months.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:34 | 1307680 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Agreed, but if japan drops out of buying treasurys and our economy starts to accelerate or inflation picks up we may see the opposite.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:46 | 1307722 Boston
Boston's picture

Yup, I fully expect Treasuries to sell off.....but after QE3 gets pre-announced.

Re Japan, the slow-motion trainwreck in the JGB market could actually be bullish for US Treasuries.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:10 | 1307982 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

"OKYO -- Japanese exports fell 12.5% from a year earlier in April for the second straight monthly drop, the government said Wednesday, tipping the trade balance into a deficit as damages from the March 11 earthquake continued to hobble production and shipments of industrial ..."

Japanese exports falling to 0.0 percent next month. People do NOT get it. Japan is GONE. Corporations will start exploding the month after. US will start exploding. JAPAN IS GONE.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:10 | 1307983 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

"OKYO -- Japanese exports fell 12.5% from a year earlier in April for the second straight monthly drop, the government said Wednesday, tipping the trade balance into a deficit as damages from the March 11 earthquake continued to hobble production and shipments of industrial ..."

Japanese exports falling to 0.0 percent next month. People do NOT get it. Japan is GONE. Corporations will start exploding the month after. US will start exploding. JAPAN IS GONE.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:40 | 1307552 sabra1
sabra1's picture

maybe Greece defaulted and the insiders are frontrunning!

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:52 | 1307586 AUD
AUD's picture

frontrunning the Fed et al.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:05 | 1307616 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

FT Deutschland reports that Trichet told finance ministers on Monday night that the ECB would respond to a re-profiling by refusing to buy any new Greek debt instruments. Furthermore, the ECB would refuse to supply the Greek banking system with any further liquidity. This means that the ECB will effectively boycott Juncker’s silly plan. That, in turn, would force Greece to quit the eurozone within days.

We are closer to a Greece leaving eurozone announcement much sooner than the market expects.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:16 | 1307653 AUD
AUD's picture

FT Deutschland might report that Trichet said that but translating to English from Centralbankese, what he said was: "If something dramatic happens we will hit the offer".

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:33 | 1307685 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

I do not know, maybe Trichet is bluffing, but I know that when there's smoke, there's fire.

BTW, Der Spiegel continues to stand firm behind the accuracy of its article (Re: Greece is contemplating leaving the Eurozone) and the credibility of its German government source.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 04:27 | 1308175 Roger Knights
Roger Knights's picture

"We are closer to a Greece leaving eurozone announcement much sooner than the market expects."

Sever on Monday?

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:57 | 1307749 suldog
suldog's picture

Currency Swap Lines commence!!

$$ for all!!!

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:47 | 1307574 ES-Sniper
ES-Sniper's picture

Plunge protection team is still at dinner,

although their cell phones are all ringing about now

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:47 | 1307579 nmewn
nmewn's picture


Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:48 | 1307582 MikeNYC
MikeNYC's picture

Stops are tight waiting on the snap-carrot rally to lock in short-side gains.

The EURUSD is so blatantly pushed around it's almost silly.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:53 | 1307587 camoes
camoes's picture

Just BTFD you f(^&%$ idiot and tell your buddies to do the same

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:33 | 1307683 Sedaeng
Sedaeng's picture

I know I probably will get slammed for this but I can not seem to figure out this acronym BTFD.  Is it Button The Fuck Down, Bite The Fucking Dust, Bring The Fuckers Down, Buy The Fucking Dollar.  Please forgive the noob question.  Thanks for legitimate replies :)

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:43 | 1307710 Sockeye
Sockeye's picture

Buy The Fucking Dollar! Ha that's a gooder!

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:45 | 1307719 justtotaketheedgeoff
justtotaketheedgeoff's picture

Buy The Fucking Dip.  Refers to a cartoon a few months ago about buying silver.  

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:50 | 1307721 MissCellany
MissCellany's picture

Hi Sedaeng. It depends sometimes on the context and sense of humor of the poster, heheheh. But for the most part it's used to mean "Buy the F**king Dip" (get in on the price drops, especially in the precious metals).

(Oh, and I liked Bite the Fucking Dust myself!)

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:47 | 1307841 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Around here if it isn't about metals it's often sarcastic.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:50 | 1307737 Ivar Kreuger
Ivar Kreuger's picture

Just STFU and BTFD.

Altough I think BTFD is dead.

In May its STFT (sell the f'ing top) for the newbs.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:06 | 1307762 prophet
prophet's picture

You got the F right.  buy the dip. See link below for complete explanation:

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:26 | 1307791 hayleecomet
hayleecomet's picture

Buy The F'n Dip

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:19 | 1307812 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

BTFD actually = Be the F*ckin Dip


C'mon, guys. Tell him straight up.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:54 | 1307588 Doyle Hargraves
Doyle Hargraves's picture


Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:58 | 1307594 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Could be the first flinch/blink in the staring contest between institutions realizing with no fed support he who exits last may not get the p/l they've been holding onto thus far.  The breaking down of correlation with PM's and risk assets will be interesting to watch as it may seem with no perceived fed intervention (for now) the market may 'normalize'.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:03 | 1307606 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

30-yr. bonds are up like 30 days out of the last 38 trading days.

A stellar, uninterrupted boner run off the "Bill Gross" lows.

And people are worried about a "debt ceiling??""


The SPY is about 5% off its highs.

If the SPY declines 20%, the 10-yr. yield will be back down to 2% on another bond "superspike".

Bill Gross will probably be run out of Newport Beach and will be unable to finish his new home on "Drawbridge Island".

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:25 | 1307672 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

You are right, but that is an extremely big if to see a 20 percent drop in spy.

That has NEVER ocurred with fed easing.....and we are still ultra easy at the fed with virtually zero nominal rates.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:33 | 1307688 AUD
AUD's picture

Not so fast. It is possible the bond speculators want to see just how 'easy' Ben 'bubbles' Bernanke can get. How 'low' can he go?

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:53 | 1307735 Boston
Boston's picture

But the printing (QE3) stops in a few weeks.  

Look what happened last year.....after QE ended:  the S&P "dipped" almost 20% until Ben whipped out QE2 and prevented further damage.

Meanwhile, the 10-year fell from 4.0% in the spring to 2.35% in October.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:30 | 1307934 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Marc Faber- who predicts run-away inflation and WWIII within the next 5-8 years- said in December 2010 that bonds would rally and PMs (like silver) would correct 15-20%.

Total Collapse is still coming!


Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:34 | 1308081 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

You are smart young lady to think about the future...

Keep thinking and posting.

If you can, buy physical gold NOW!

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:08 | 1307628 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Well, Tyler's report on the banks mess with the foreclosures explains it.

Looks like the deadbeat McBox squatters will be able to live "rent free" indefinitely.

In fact, as the local news reported over the weekend, some foreclosed homeowners are actually moving back into their McStucco boxes out here in California!!!

No wonder these retail stocks are on fire and are impervious to:

- Currency and metals gyrations

- PIIGS upheavals

- "Risk On/Risk Off" Algo/Igor/Robo trading

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:57 | 1307743 trav7777
trav7777's picture

so, IOW, I need to find a REO and just break into the thing and start living there?

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:26 | 1307790 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Pretty much. 

Quit your job collect food stamps/unemployment, get your bitch preggo for that extra WIC loot and you're living high on the hog rent free beyotch.

**For the multiplier, hookup on some student loans for that degree in basket weaving, take that dough to Vegas throw it all in on RED, double it, and call it a day nigga.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:44 | 1307831 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

Bob do you work for Trav7777?  Or are you Trav7777? With out fail you comment right behind that Troll everytime he opens his mouth.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:51 | 1307844 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Are you jealous? Or, just a stalker?

Maybe you're just creepy.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:53 | 1308028 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

ur ISP called. they know what your up to.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:56 | 1308030 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

Is that a veiled threat from the dept of homeland security?  Why don't you just tell me what I am up to since you work for the dept of homeland?

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:02 | 1308033 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

by baby_BLYTHE 
on Tue, 05/24/2011 - 21:15

Wait till all this inflation we exported to Japan, China and the rest of the BRICs comes home to roost! 

Ben's and the rest of the Govt intervention will unravel so quick, they will quickly forget the phrase "We were saved from another great depression" that they attempted to burn into the greater populations' brains

by Sock Puppet 
on Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:16

Another Trav7777 employee?  Expert on everything all of a sudden.  I rember when you were you a little college freshman who stumbled across this website. Whatever.

by baby_BLYTHE 
on Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:43

wrong! junk

I have been reading ZH longer than you (little over two years now)...

Not that it matters, just tell me where I am incorrect... you think interest rates will stay in 'negative real' territory while inflation explodes to the upside?

The FED is backed into the corner. They have chosen INFLATION. They won't do QE 3 right away, just like they held back on QE 2. but it will come soon after.

You will soon see 14% inflation in America. The FED criminal number will be 2.4- 2.9%, but real inflation will be well into double-digits. It will be during this time foreign countries offically begin dumping dollars... 

... then interest rates SPIKE! the FED is the only one left. 
Congress won't let people die... QE 18 (just like Marc Faber + Jimmy Rogers have pointed out).

by Sock Puppet 
on Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:47

Supposedly you are a college freshman which means you wouldn't have ever heard of Blythe for starters.  I remember one of your first posts about how you had $200 of gold and you didn't if you should keep it or sell it and all the other supposedly niave BS.  I'll bet your some dude with hairy nuts drinking cofee on the night shift in Trav7777's office.

by baby_BLYTHE 
on Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:56


I have been called Blythe since I was in junior high. This was due to the fact I listened to heavy metal and hardcore punk during my latter adolscene all the way through my teens till today.

By the time I got to high school I was actively involved and even touring with indy metal artists in the underground scene as a promoter and merch girl. I still do this today. SOme of the artists are major acts, a few of you might even recognize.  

I am going into my Junior year officially but only because I am involved in a work/study program... due to the fact I travel about 7 months out of the year.

I have been accumulating precious metals ever since I started reading ZH and still haven't sold any.

I turn 21 in July but, seriously, When did age matter on this site?

kind regards

by Sock Puppet 
on Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:08

Just admit it you are a government Troll.  I don't personally care, as I just follow this site as a hobby, but I know bullshit when I smell it.  Your picture and the persona you have tried to develop are like a CIA honeypot.  You lure the men with your beauty and innocence and then call for revolution.  It is obvious you are bait to find those with a bent for violence.  Just admit you got some small hairy nuts, hair on your back and an Adam's apple and then start over with a new persona.  Best of luck.

by baby_BLYTHE 
on Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:16

Reality is sometimes tough to deal with, I understand.

I don't feel like arguing with someone that is just going to throw out insults, falsehoods and ad-hominem character assignations. This is ZH, I come here to learn, listen and debate Economics and GEO Politics.

So I conclude with the same, Good luck sir in all your current and future endeavors.

by Sock Puppet 
on Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:20

Sure goldbug.  Whats with the ad-hominen BS, don't you call for revolution against the United States Government?  That would be treason.  Your fake, just admit it.

by Hephasteus 
on Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:25

I think you missed there. She's not fake. She's young and freaks out more than most people and hasn't had enough experience to see as much as other people. But she's not a troll.

by Sock Puppet 
on Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:30

Shows how good she is, she suckered you with her BS too.  She is playing the innocence card and then says let crack open some fuckin heads.  She is bait for the revolutionary violent types, she or he probably works for the dept of homeland security.  I know it is probably unamerican of me to call out a fellow patriot but they can go troll elsewhere.

by baby_BLYTHE 
on Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:31

The answer to 1984 is 1776

When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.


Treason? Hardly. I just happen to believe in what this country stood for on day 1. We have since turned a 180. I simply wish to restore the republic back to its orginal intent. i.e. No overseas military empire, no Federal Reserve, no Income Tax, full civil liberties, etc.

Goodnight, regards

by Sock Puppet 
on Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:33

No income tax is Treason.  Look I know you are a true patriot, I am just calling out your bullshit.  Your going to have start over from scratch here to stir the pot and coax out the violent.

As your quote says, disolve the political bands, doesn't mean fuckin revolution it means through political means.

by Sock Puppet 
on Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:38

By the way, you are very polite for being a punk rocker.

by Sock Puppet 
on Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:45

Again, you are very niave if you think we are not going to try to maintian our Empire, who the fuck would defend us against China, Russia and the Muslim Extremists.  Didn't you hear your boss' comments (Panetta) the other day?  We must do eveything possible to maintain our world power/military position.  Good luck with an almost college junior calling for the end to our over seas military empire.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:20 | 1308057 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

holy shit! u really are in the running for sock-puppet-of-the-year prize. what kind of dip-shit waste of space for gratification of yer pissy little ego is that? are you really that obsessed with BB? good thing we're not in public - you'd be stalkin' her

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:48 | 1308097 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

You don't fuckin get it do you.  Zero has been flooded with Trolls, BB calls for revolution and violence to attract nit wits like you to be added to the list for follow up, either that or you fuckers (astro turfers, sock puppets, etc) are out in force tonight defending one of your own.  I respect that as I too am a Patriot but lets face it she or he or it failed. Time to start over. 

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:41 | 1308088 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Your troll calling cred is falling faster that the ES. 

Suck it, douchebag.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:49 | 1308100 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

That is the best you got?

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:56 | 1308106 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Well I said it all, didn't I?  It's not you, its the trolls and "the rest of us" that are wrong.  Lemme know if you want more.  I'll be more than happy to oblige.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 03:04 | 1308116 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

What did you say?  You support violence against the united states?  I call the trolls as I see them.  I not against them, as I don't support violence for change.  I understand that most trolls are a patriots that work for the dept of homeland security and are just gathering intel on timothy mcvey types here on the the fringe ZH.  If you don't have anything to refute what I say why call names, why not just state some facts to discuss?

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 06:26 | 1308234 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

I'm pretty sure that if they were alive today, Ben Franklin, Samuel Adams, Patrick Henry, etc, would disagree with you.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!