Something Is Happening

This article originally appeared in The Daily Capitalist.

Something is happening. I am not saying it is a trend, but the data are suggesting some improvement in the economy. This is the first time I have said this in two years. It may just be a temporary phenomenon since there are so many headwinds against a recovery. Perhaps it is just that things aren't getting worse. But the data are important and should not be ignored. Also these data don't change my mind about Q3 and Q4 being weak. But ...

Before you dismiss me as a (complete) lunatic, here is what I am seeing.

Wholesale inventories are growing faster than sales (1.18):

I interpret this as being a positive because wholesalers are stocking their shelves in response to improving retail sales and in anticipation of increased Christmas sales. According to a Wall Street Journal article:

Wholesale inventories grew 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted $417 billion in September [1.4% unadjusted], the Commerce Department said Tuesday, suggesting business confidence in the run-up to the holiday shopping season. ...

Wholesalers account for about 30% of business inventories in the U.S., with manufacturers [at 38%], and retailers making up the rest. Growth in wholesale inventories shows companies are feeling better about consumer demand over the next few months and are preparing for rising sales.

Inventory growth has been a strong contributor to the economic recovery of the past year, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the modest 2.0% growth in the third quarter.

That is poised to continue, at least for a few months. The Commerce Department report showed companies have a low level of goods on hand relative to sales, a sign that factories are likely to keep humming. At the current sales pace, wholesalers had enough goods on hand in September to last 1.18 months, up from 1.17 in August but below 1.22 in September 2009.

Business inventories also increased, up 0.9% for September. Business sales were up 0.5%. Retail inventory build up (0.8%) was mainly related to autos (1.7%) and "other" retail inventories increased 0.4%. The business inventory sales ratio was 1.27, showing a steady increase since May 2010.

This also relates to inventory build-up for Holiday shopping.

Retail sales have actually been "OK" lately. Monday's report from the Census Bureau showed retail sales jumped 1.2% in October:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $373.1 billion, an increase of 1.2 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 7.3 percent (±0.7%) above October 2009.  Total sales for the August through October 2010 period were up 6.3 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago.  The August to September 2010 percent change was revised from +0.6 percent (±0.5%) to +0.7 percent (±0.3%).

Retail trade sales were up 1.3 percent (±0.5%) from September 2010, and 7.7 percent (±0.7%) above last year.  Auto and other motor vehicle dealers sales were up 14.7 percent (±2.5%) from October 2009 and nonstore retailers sales were up 13.5 percent (±3.1%) from last year.

The jump in auto sales was reflected in consumer credit numbers: it increased a net $2.1 billion in September which was solely due to auto sales (nonrevolving credit) being up by $10.4 billion. This is only the second increase in the past 20 months.

Gallup's spending survey numbers for October are overall low, but turning positive:

Gallup reports discretionary and marginal spending which are self-reported by consumers. While showing a slight increase, it is still down from 2009 which was a bleak year.

But ... there are other important numbers to look at. While we can shrug off private job growth of 159,000 in October as being weak, it does reflect a positive trend. On the other hand, new jobless claims are stuck in the 440,000-490,000 range.

Another thing to consider is that the dollar's devaluation will have a positive impact on multinationals and exporters. Ignoring for the moment to issues surrounding devaluation and QE, it will make U.S. exports more attractive in foreign markets.

The other thing, and which I consider to be the most important statistic, is that money supply is growing:

From Michael Pollaro, The Contrarian Take

According to Michael Pollaro, who generates this data:

[M]oney supply under the Austrian formulation of money, which Austrians have coined the True Money Supply or TMS, has been growing at double digit rates for some time now, 21 consecutive months to be exact, with the latest month showing a year over year rate of increase of 11.2%.  And what has been the primary cause of this money supply explosion?  QE I, which beginning in September 2008 not only pumped roughly $1.5 trillion of reserves into the economy but pumped the same $1.5 trillion of money into the economy too. ...

Now another $600 billion of monetary inflation in the pipeline with QE II.  That’s over $2 trillion in monetary inflation courtesy of the Federal Reserve’s QE programs.  In September 2008 TMS was $5.4 trillion.  It’s now $7 trillion, likely on its way to at least $7.6 trillion.  I think you would agree, that’s a far cry from [Ben Bernanke's claim that] the amount of cash in circulation is not changing.

I urge you to read Pollaro's complete article. Money supply growth is inflation. This should generate a temporary push to the economy. I anticipate we will see higher CPI numbers on Wednesday, reflecting price inflation as a result of monetary inflation. (I might even have to apologize to Mrs. Palin.)

With all this new money sloshing around we are seeing "improved" loan activity, and as a result some reduction in excess bank reserves held at the Fed:

Bank credit and bank loans are improving, or, to put it more accurately, they have flattened out and are not still collapsing. Here are three charts reflecting banking trends:

The most recent survey of loan officers by the Fed bears this out:

Banks further eased standards and terms on some types of business and household loans in the past three months, a Federal Reserve survey showed, while many said it would take years for standards to return to long-term norms.

Banks were more willing to make consumer installment loans and eased standards on credit-card loans, the central bank said in its quarterly survey of senior loan officers through the middle of October. At the same time, demand for mortgages remained weak, while demand for business lending fell, after having been unchanged in the previous survey.

For the second consecutive survey, banks eased standards on commercial and industrial loans. Banks that eased “cited a more favorable or less uncertain economic outlook and increased competition from other banks and nonbank lenders as important reasons for doing so,” the Fed said in its survey.

The Fed survey ended with this sobering caution:

Banks in the survey said that all types of lending would not return to normal for years. “For all loan categories, substantial fractions of respondents thought that their bank’s lending standards would not return to their long-run norms until after 2012 or would remain tighter than longer-run averages for the foreseeable future,” the Fed said.

I have also been reporting that things are changing at the local and regional banks in that they are starting to aggressively clean their balance sheets by getting rid of foreclosed CRE and delinquent loans.

The fourth quarter is often a time when banks try to tidy up their balance sheets for the coming year. As they step up efforts to sell problem loans, this quarter could be the big flush. ...

In recent weeks several banking companies have announced that they have shed nonperforming assets or struck deals to do so. Loan-sale experts say interest in selling is picking up, with executives growing weary of playing defense and looking to start 2011 with a clean slate, or at least a cleaner one.

"I think there is a segment of the bank seller market that really has the desire to clean up their books for the end of the year and be able to move on next year," said Justin A. Barr, president of Loan Workout Advisers in Chicago.

Local and regional banks are preparing for stiff competition from the large banks who now see opportunity in the small-to-middle-market sector. They need to be healthy in order to defend their customer base from aggressive poachers such as Citibank and BofA .

What does all this mean? Things are improving.

I am not calling this a "turn" or necessarily a "trend" in the economy because of all the negative factors still out there. But I do think things are improving. Perhaps things are just flattening and not getting worse.

But much of the prospect of a turn around depends on the resolution of other important issues that are weighing on the economy:

• Loan demand is poor because businesses are reluctant to commit to borrow until they see sufficient demand and they perceive the risks from "regime uncertainty" is manageable. Regime uncertainty refers to uncertainty relating to the impact of new government burdens. It is a major stumbling block to a recovery. One hopes that the 2010 election revolution will put a stop to further economically disruptive legislation. And perhaps businesses will see some roll-backs of proposed tax increases, Obamacare, and Dodd-Frank burdens on them. If so, it might give them an incentive to expand their businesses, borrow, and hire.
• Monday's Empire State manufacturing report tanked (down 11.1%) and the Philly report (Friday) is expected to be bad.
• Eurozone problems look like they are about to explode again with PIIGS problems.
• Trade wars are a realistic threat.
• Competition among sovereigns to finance debt from a shrinking pool of capital.
• Unemployment is still high and job growth is too low to significantly budge the needle.
• Federal spending, growing deficits, and the prospect of higher taxes threaten productivity.
• A devaluing dollar will harm consumer spending as imported goods increase in cost.
• Inflation. It could be that, since these rising numbers are almost all nominal (i.e., not adjusted for inflation "real"), these improvements are negated by price inflation.

The GDP numbers are already baked in, so I don't see any change in the Q4 report that would change my belief that it will be no better than Q3 GDP. We can probably expect the revised Q3 numbers to be a bit weaker than +2.0%.

We need to note that if there is an improving trend, neither the Fed, nor the Obama Administration can claim they were the cause. All business cycles run their course. They all behave differently, largely depending on how much the government interferes with the recovery process. During the first two years of this crisis, the government has done everything they could to deter a recovery: bailing out failed institutions, propping up banks which should have been dissolved or have been forced to raise more capital and clean up their balance sheets (thanks for mark-to-make-believe, delay and pray, extend and pretend), spending vast sums on wasteful projects, incurring huge deficits which raise the specter of higher taxes, Cash for [Your industry here], HAMP, HARP, HAFA, and many more.

While all this was going on individuals were deleveraging and increasing savings, banks were dealing with their problems albeit slowly, companies were becoming lean and mean, bankruptcies kept rising, foreclosures continued. These things are painful but without them we would not and will not recover. I believe this process is now speeding up which is positive for a recovery.

But, tell me what the government will do next: they are Factor X. But for now, I can't ignore the data.

Comments

[meichou]

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[i.knoknot]

tnx Econophile, i hope you're right, then i picture ben,tim,barry, etc. and ... well ... start to scan the graphs again.

FWIW, i see this phase of the recovery as being those little crabs on the beach getting all gutsy and coming out of their holes when you sit still for a while... skittish, and clearly wary of the last scare.

perhaps it will stick. given the core problems haven't really been acknowledged and a huge chunk of the population is literally being fed by the FED... i see sideways with a high probablity of event-driven dips (another BP, Iran, earthquake, Portugal, etc.).

folks are getting used to the current reset, but they are not at all comfortable enough to go 'all in' yet.

2cts

[DoctoRx]

IMHO The markets agree w Econophile.  Overall nothing controversial here.

What counts to traders are where the markets are wrong, not data that has already been crunched by supercomputers all over the world.  My perspective is simple:  negative real short-term interest rates due to wild money printing tell one something is sick from a financial markets perspective.

[antidisestablis...]

When it comes to investing in the stock market, I would think most people are  going to need a less lagging indicator. Unless they don't mind being 20 months behind the curve.

[trillion_dollar...]

I would agree with the general premise just on anecdotals ive seen since roughly the beginning of Oct. Ive been as bearish as the bearest bear, but i think some corner may have been turned. What caused it, how long it lasts, and what its effects are may be a different story. Time will tell. I still believe in the general idea that we are complerely fucked though.

[Assetman]

I've seen evidence we've made progress getting out of a deep hole that developed swiftly in 2008.  And I still see evidence of recovery in a number of places.  So yeah, that's all good.

At the margin, though, there is cause for some worry.  If companies were really balls to the wall behind this recovery, we would see a surge in R&D as well as capital spending.  In the aggregate, I just haven't seen that gain momentum.  There's a general sense of frustration and distrust of smaller businesses toward the governement, and a lot of it is justified.

I like looking at leading indicators, and right now they are very mixed.  My sense is that we've come to the peak of the stimulus that was intended to benefit the broad economy.  Between that and higher input costs, I just don't see that growth can be maintained.  Businesses just aren't confident.  Jobs aren't being added fast enough.  And total income gains are a nothingburger-- unless you work for the Federal Governement or at a TBTF bank.

Perhaps that reduced outlook issued by CSCO this past week (since they end their quarter in October) is a sign of things to come.

[trillion_dollar...]

You may be correct in that this is the peak of stimulus effect. Jobs are still very lacking, but I have seen noticable improvement in the number of jobs available. Of course these are all jobs that require college degrees and experience, so I may be overstating what is actually happening.  

[sasebo]

We probably all just need to take some smart pills.

Makes me think about the old timey swindler who used to sell fake medicines & potions out the back of a covered wagon. One day he decided to make some money by collecting those rabbit pellets, bottling them & selling them as "smart pills". One day one of his customers looked him up & told the old swindler his "smart pills" tasted just like rabbit shit.

The old swindler responded, "see now you're getting smart".

[alexwest]

blah blah blah.. hey frigging idiot YOU FORGOT TO MENTION

ONLY ONE CHART THAT MATTER : federal budget deficit..

each time you write anohter piece of junk about how good things now repeat one phrase : US FEDERAL GOV for 1 $ in taxes print  another 1$ to spend... 1$ +1$ printed... its v simple stupid..

so.. please stop post baselss junk about recovery... tell that +20% un/underempl people, or   40+ mln who on food stamps.. or tell that to jsut avg American who didnt get real income raise for  10 years..

what a jerk

alx

[i.knoknot]

somewhere in there you seem to have a point about the FED spending and social stimulus that implies the recovery is bogus.

why the angry wrapper? is that the best you've got?

to quote: "what a jerk"

[bullwinkle]

Dennis Kneale will get his job back and everything will be fine.

Then again maybe strategic defaults are responsible.  Wouldn't that be sweet?

Screw the banks and save the economy.

[revolutionnot]

I think a congrats to Heli-Ben-ster for initiating hyper-inflation is in order.

[Hidetora]

It's the death rattle of a dying empire.

[laosuwan]

why is verybody ragging on this guy for doing a reality check? That's a good thing he is doing, so there is no group think clouding vision to change that might be happening.

Now, having said that, all those wholesale inventory increases took place on supplier's credit so let's wait and see if they can sell the stuff and pay the suppliers. 

[geminiRX]

Reality check would question what these numbers really mean minus all government intervention. That would represent "the real economy" not the socialist one you are currently living in. Just remember that you will have to pay all this money back in the form of higher taxes and higher interest rates. We cannot print ourselves out of this mess without a massive reset. QE has distorted any sense of price discovery in today's markets. 

[RockyRacoon]

Your Brain is Broken
Click on link for video

Posted: 13 Nov 2010 09:30 AM PST

Around these parts, we are so very keen to point out cognitive foibles.

Temporarily stuck in human form as we are, our instrument for perceiving the universe around us are inherently flawed, susceptible to all manner of errors.

Its a design error in the wetware.

In the ongoing battle to keep these flaws from impacting our investing process, we keep learning of new problems — with both the hardware and software. We can work to keep the firmware updated, but the errors are even worse than we previously imagined:

New research suggests that misinformed people rarely change their minds when presented with the facts — and often become even more attached to their beliefs. The finding raises questions about a key principle of a strong democracy: that a well-informed electorate is best.

Facts, apparently, don’t matter much . . .

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2010/07/11/how_facts_backfire/

http://www.npr.org/v2/?i=128490874&m=128490868&t=audio" height="386" wmode="opaque" allowfullscreen="true" width="400" base="http://www.npr.org" type="application/x-shockwave-flash

[the grateful un...]

misinformed people, like people who are constantly being lied to? Democracy depends on the manipulation of the voting public, but the notion of a public, has been replaced with the concept of a mass audience. to make it short, a mass audience doesn't really care which party has the white house. (which is why there is no third party, the Tea Party is just a Republican splinter group). Obama is the stooge of the mass audience, which is to say he has no idea how to handle it. Data is overcooked, and then presented by a subnormal chef as nuevo cuisine. 

[gookempucky]

Thanks for the links Rocky.

I cant believe its not butter--for most folks the grey matter between the ears just doesnt exist.

[gookempucky]

As things recover :O really. The big players trying to jockey for position in the coming gold wars--as said somewhere in this thread it is all just noise.

PIMCO

Gold top holding in Pimco equity fund

16 November 2010 | By Nick Rice  

Pimco’s first equity strategy has retained a top holding in gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty, despite fears of a bubble in the asset class.

Anne Gudefin

Anne Gudefin, the co-manager of the recently launched Pimco EqS Pathfinder fund, held 4.2% in the SPDR Gold trust at the end of August.

“We are long gold because we don’t believe there is much normality,” she says.

Gold is an unusual top holding for an equity fund, especially for a deep-value global manager like Gudefin.

In the main, she says she is deploying the same bottom-up global equity selection process as she used at her previous employers Franklin Templeton.

Currently she sees bargains in areas like Europe, where she argues the eurozone crisis has disproportionately affected the share price of some multinationals. (article continues below)

In her top 10, she holds defensives such as British tobacco stocks BAT and Imperial Tobacco and European names in beverages and healthy staple foods, such as Danone, Carlsberg and Pernod-Ricard.

But she can also take a double-digit position in special opportunities where Pimco has the relevant expertise, such as merger arbitrage and distressed credit.

She can also guard against top-down factors through holdings like gold, or by hedging currencies using Pimco’s currency expertise.

Overall, Gudefin says she emphasises capital preservation. She says gold is consistent with that remit given current levels of uncertainty.

Bill Gross, the managing director of Pimco, has also warned on the general outlook for markets.

In particular, he recently branded the American treasury market the most brazen Ponzi scheme of all time.

[RECISION]

What does all this mean? Things are improving... I do think things are improving. Perhaps things are just flattening and not getting worse.

Yeah, perhaps.

And perhaps thing are just taking a small breather before they take another cliff dive.

... what a clown!

[sasebo]

And tell us how the data looked in 2007, just before subprime hit.

Bernanke said everything looked great. Sounds like you might be delusional also.

[Rogerwilco]

We are in a recovery of sorts, and it appears to be a combination of fed up, burned out consumers saying "fuckit all", and businesses enjoying higher sales as competitors disappear left and right. The real question is where would we be without that 10% federal deficit spending to prop things up? It's a level of spending not sustainable even through next year, so what happens when it ends? Cake and ice cream from the sky?

We can't have a bottom until the debt dragon is dead and buried, and we're still trillions away from resolving that mess.

[Clapham Junction]

Great article, Cramer.

[dumpster]

numbers looking better

well as\ long as unemployment is 22%  and they say 9.7%

then the numbers are A SNow  job and any one thinking with a 200 trillion debt ,, and the fed BUYING every tranche of bonds state , local ,,

and inventors  gaining over sales ,,

then just sell the three of four bridges ,, and get on with life .. put on the blinders

and roll over and wag the dog 

[Buck Johnson]

A couple of people hit it right on the head, it's a combination of 3 things.  One is they are buying their stuff now and warehousing because they know and see that the raw materials are going up quickly it would cost them on both ends (meaning more to buy the goods and less people buying their made goods because of the markups from inflation).  Two, hopeing to make sure they are able to have a good christmas and sell their items well before black friday.  And three as one Submitter said, Value Deflation has been happening where you get less for the same amount or more money spent.  Smaller servings or packages and less of an item, this has been happeing in the grocery stores for awhile now to hide inflation but it's not even helping.  Inflation is continuing regardless of what they have been doing.

Something is happening and thats for sure, it's the last Horray before reality sets in next year.

[ArmchairRevolut...]

This was exactly my thought.  Calculated Risk had an article talking about how inbound shipping was up for September, but down in October. My belief was that wholesalers were moving forward their inventories a bit.  Why would they do that? Their cost of money is low and they expect product costs to rise.

[EvlTheCat]

And three as one Submitter said, Value Deflation has been happening where you get less for the same amount or more money spent.  Smaller servings or packages and less of an item, this has been happeing in the grocery stores for awhile now to hide inflation but it's not even helping.

I am seeing more and more of this.  My latest example is at our local zoo.  Not only have prices for enterance jumped up.  The restaurant in the zoo is selling my regular fish and chips plate with a third of the fish, half the chips and no pickle for the same $8.45.  Prices on the plate jumped at the beginning of the year from $6.84 to the current price.

[Everyman]

This article is ludicrous in my opinion.

Just because across the board the corporations all imported or made a bunch of extra shit and didn't sell any means we are in a "growth pattern"??  Are you kidding me???

[Silva Plata]

I'm seeing a lot of growth in my neighborhood. The family next door to me that stopped paying their mortgage just had another baby. Luckily mom and dad are both unemployed so there won't be any lost productivity from maternity leave.

[snowball777]

Occam's Razor: inventories are outpacing sales because demand is depressed.

The wholesalers better expect that crapto sit on those shelves for a looonnng time.

[RunningMan]

I think the data are finally showing the results of the stimulus, which has largely run its course. Something changed for the worse in October 2010, and I am seeing a significant slowdown that is reminiscent of 2008. The data may be showing glimmers of hope, but I believe that it is lagged. Unless business picks up, it looks like time to hunker down and the wallet is now firmly shut.

[sgorem]

"Before you dismiss me as a (complete) lunatic, here is what I am seeing."  you are dismissed................

[rwe2late]

I don’t recommend breaking open the champagne and celebrating just yet.

“advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but NOT for price changes “{emphasis added - rw2late]

According to shadowstats.com, the true year-to-year inflation rate is close to 7%

 - which would indicate no actual economic growth has occurred.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

The added private employment number is questionable, particularly due to the statistical addition of jobs imputed to exist by population change.

 http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=21814

There are also alternative theories about inventory build-up in the ZH comments here.

I suppose one could equally grasp at straws to find “indications” that the US is no longer becoming a police state, or that US overseas militarism is ending.

At the risk of being labeled a curmudgeon, I daresay that the conditions needed for a healthy economy have been so damaged by financial swindling, overseas militarism, and infrastructure mal-investment , and so little done for remedy, that no recovery is imminent from the economic, social, and political malaise.

[NERVEAGENTVX]

Even a corpse will twitch when injected with enough adrenaline

[Patrick Bateman]

Is not understanding how more money printing equals economic recovery. This is just a hiccup before the vomiting ensues. You know, you feel the upchuck coming but it is temporarily relieved by the cold porcelain before the porcelain gets warm and you throw the fuck up.

[SlorgGamma]

The only thing happening is that the BRICs are now finally large enough to start pulling the world out of the Great Recession. The US economy is done, toast, finished, an overleveraged mess.

But no collapse. Just the reverse -- the entire world outside of the US and Bubble Europe is going to boom. Soon, we're all going to be working for sovereign wealth funds. Karl Marx has the last laugh!

[Quantum Nucleonics]

Seems like a last flash of economic activity before stimulus cash runs out.  It's the shear weight of fiscal and monetary intervention in the economy that you are seeing in the data.  Support to local governments stops at year end.  You'll see a big spike in unemployment at the beginning of next year. (Our city just sent out pink slips to 25% of the city's staff)  As the consumer protection agency in the Dodd-Frank bill gets up and running, look for a pullback in consumer credit, which will hammer retail sales.  Turmoil in Europe will hammer those economies. 

Perhaps a better leading indicator is Cisco's earnings report this week, they missed because local governments and Europe have stopped buying.  You'll get 2% growth in Q4, then renewed talk of a double dip recession for 2011.

[Thanatos]

It seem that prognosis is dependent on interpretation of the data.

If you see things as systemically working correctly then these data points (inventories in particular) may be indicating some recovery.

If you see things as systemically detached from any reality that is known to us, the data indicates people clicking their heels together 3 times, and wishing for recovery.

As I believe the latter, much of the day to day minutia are merely the background noise of the "Saw Teeth" (all them charts goin up -n- down all the time look like a saw blade) banging against my world. Like any saw that has seen hard use, it has missing and bent teeth that cause a random break from the normal and predicatble rhythm of its work.

The overall picture is that the saw is becoming more work hardend and bigger abnormalities will start to appear. Eventually the saw does very unpredicatble things.

Like break and send pieces all over the place.

So, I try not to pay attention at a level where interpretation is subjective.

It's all locked in, the only thing that is modulatable is the rapidity of events and that control looks to be fading.

Stock up and Gather things that give comfort and security to you, and wait.

[Winston Smith 2009]

"As I believe the latter, much of the day to day minutia are merely the background noise of the "Saw Teeth" (all them charts goin up -n- down all the time look like a saw blade)"

Yep, just look at a graph of the DJIA since 2008. Those large swings are not the signs of recovery or of a healthy market. More like one teetering on the edge.

[RockyRacoon]

Like the erratic wobbling of a spinning top just before it tilts over, skitters around the floor, and comes to a stop in the remotest part of the room -- under a piece of furniture.

[Winston Smith 2009]

Q: How many times can a dead cat bounce?

A: Depends upon how many trillions you can borrow.

[RECISION]

How many times can a dead cat bounce...

if a dead cat can bounce dead

[greenewave]

To find out more about the Imminent Collapse of the Global Economy, watch the YouTube video "Wall Street Thieves, Bailouts Galore, Broken America" at (http://youtu.be/I93dzfs8WIc).

The United States economy is rotten at the core and has been stolen from the American people by the Wall Street Thives that drove the Titanic into the iceburg in the first place!!

32 minutes ago

KA-BOOM! Crash will be any day now! It is going to be like nothing else ever seen? here or anywhere else in history. God bless!

-Anonymous

[watt]

". . .wholesalers are stocking their shelves in response to improving retail sales and in anticipation of increased Christmas sales."

Or,

. . .wholesalers inventories are rising as customers defer or delay buying in the expectation of lower prices going forward.

[Winston Smith 2009]

It'll be interesting to see the results of Black Friday sales. I don't plan to buy anything at all... not even food or gasoline.

[Quantum Nucleonics]

Black Friday really isn't the retail event it once was.  The last weekend before Christmas is now a bigger retail sales day.  Most retailers now try to one up each other, so aggressive discounting starts even before the Thanksgiving holiday.  Online purchases the following Monday dilute that Friday also.  It's now just the cattle that line up at Wal-Mart at 4am to trample each other to death for the benefit of the viewing public.

Also, the whole, don't buy gas (or whatever) on Day X is silly. Unless you have a way to never buy gas, they're going to get you $$$ anyway.  They really don't care if it's on Friday or Saturday.  If you don't change the rate of consumption (rather than the timing of consumption) you are just kidding yourself.

[RockyRacoon]

What you buy or when isn't the point, I'll agree.  But inculcating the life style of fighting the Ponzi is the point, actually it's the goal.  Black Friday is just another day to practice what one preaches.

[tony bonn]

just as the clinton administration claimed that congress wanted draconian budget cuts because it was cutting the rate of growth in spending from 10% to 5% per annum, so one can claim we are in the midst of a robust recovery.

the important point is that these green shits are courtesy of inflation and as such do not represent real growth....we are entering the feel good phase of dollar debasement...this time next year folks will be stock piling food in anticipation of 30-50% price increases...

[OldTrooper]

the important point is that these green shits are courtesy of inflation and as such do not represent real growth

My thoughts exactly.

[Sudden Debt]

I've had that data a few month ago already and that was why I was very optimistic.

Believe me, the party is over.

October industry production is down 5% in Europe

November industry production is down already 12,7% for the first 2 weeks and still going down.

I'm hearing it also from all sides that everybody is bracing for the end of the year.