Something Is Still Happening

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Tue, 01/04/2011 - 17:30 | 847511 cramers_tears
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The same gist can be found here at a construction industry article.  Green Shoots... Green Shoots...  "Housing Starts Seen Rising to Three-Year High" - The title seems to be a self-fulfilling one.  It's the use of the "Seen", as in "I seen that UFO, yep, I shore did!"  "Yep, I seen those housin' starts a boomin'!" (http://www.dispatchmarketinginc.com/eReports/ConstructionEquipmentnewsdi...)

I'm so jaded now that when I read stuff like this "Something is still happening," post or the "Three Year High Housing Starts" story, I just think WHAT A CROCK OF SHEYAT!

The only thing I do know is the success I've had since '08 has been when I figured out how TPTB were going to cheat.  Being on the short side as the Dow went to 6500 and long since.  I haven't made a leveraged deal since 2007.  I've deleveraged totally at this point.  I've generally moved my equities out of the US and the only thing that makes sense to me now is PM, Commodities and Real Assets.  I don't like the FX like Tyler and you ZHers.  The HFT has just killed my stock joy, so it's back to the small-biz thing for me.

Fraud is so pervasive that I believe nothing coming out of TPTB or their salesmen. When I read the fluff stuff they keep sending me from advancedtrader.com (New Regulations/Fair Trading Imperatives Draw Investors Back In... w/ a facing ad for "...get your own Dark Pool") or watch CNBC, CNN, Fox, MSNBC - I find it hysterical.  I was watching Morning Joe the other day and they're talking about THE RECOVERY - and I just couldn't stop laughing.  My girlfriend thinks I'm nuts.  I'd rather watch the two bears talk about the Bernank and the Jp Morgue than watch MSM these days... the two bears are at least entertaining.  I'm not kidding, I can't watch MSM for more than 5 minutes without feeling ill.

I did see one headline the other day that piqued my curiosity, "Looking for a job with an American company? Better learn Chinese or Spanish." (http://www.examiner.com/finance-examiner-in-national/looking-for-a-job-w...) '1.4M jobs created overseas' I've been taking a Chinese Class since Sep-10 - and all I know is this.  Speaking Chinese makes my mouth, tongue and throat hurt. Leichter zu verbinden sie als sie bekämpfen.

Now if I could just figure out whose best between the Western Bilderberger Moneychangers, The Chinese CFR/CMC Communists or the Russian Tri-Lateral Mobsters (I keep having to change my credit cards because of funny charges from Brighton Beach)?  If you've got the answer to that one  - why you're on your way home!  The US?-It just doesn't feel like home to me anymore.

 

 

 

 

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 16:42 | 847427 pat53
pat53's picture

Just more evidence that the economy is improving, in spite of what the bears think or "hope" for. SPX will get easily to 1400 by year end.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 16:53 | 847440 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>SPX will get easily to 1400 by year end.

Once interest rates rise, the government will decide to turn the printing presses on at full blast to help manage its debt.

SPX at 14,000 is more realistic.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 16:37 | 847409 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

"Something is Still Happening"

LMAO

Reminds me of the onion article: "Something About Tax Cuts Or Earnings Or Money Or Something In Recent Economic News" http://www.theonion.com/articles/something-about-tax-cuts-or-earnings-or-money-or-s,18169/

 

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 16:13 | 847360 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

These are the kind of analyses I just can't stand.  Graphs!  Charts!  Statistics!  Lies!  Damned Lies!  The simple responses noted here in the thread are bulletproof and, well, simple.

 

"...Let's see, the federal government runs a 12% deficit three years in a row to prop up banks and state payrolls, yeah, I suppose that counts as "something". Sustainable? Uh, no..."

"...If by 'something,' you mean a complete fraud being made of markets and the bulk of formerly middle class citizens of nations everywhere by Ponzi scheme-peddling and wealth-stealing central bank madmen, plundering the wealth of nations for the benefit of the global, nepotistic and incestuous overlord class, I agree.

Central planning is the new free market. Adam Smith is dead. Keynes is the new god. Pigs with friends in high places are engorged..."

 

 

 

The Experts and The Over-educated are going to get their asses handed to them by simpletons like me who only need to be able to add two and two.

 

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:58 | 847323 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

You have to consider the impact of continually falling home prices on the national psyche. Now, as a follower of the Marginal Revolution, I know well there is no "national psyche," but in the sense that people are affected by what they see and hear everyday, there is this background drumbeat of bad news from the housing market. And I think that has led to the pessimism the surveys reveal.

DAMN MEDIA!!!

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 16:01 | 847322 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

Let's see, the federal government runs a 12% deficit three years in a row to prop up banks and state payrolls, yeah, I suppose that counts as "something". Sustainable? Uh, no.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:50 | 847301 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

I'm long some gold and uranium juniors, but mostly buying personally held bullion. Other than that the herd can do WTF ever it wants with WTF fake data, it matters not.

It's a Red Ryder market: "Don't short your eye out kid!"

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:48 | 847299 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

What's most interesting to me is how much like a tidal wave the QE2 effect has been relative to these lackluster numbers. I guess I'm happy for the economy, if it turns out the medicine works, but it sure is a bitch trying to make sense of equity indicators that are no longer worth shit because the Fed effect overwhelms the market, at least on the short term.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:38 | 847257 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

The question remains, if "something will continue happening" without massive stimulus from the gov't. The answer is an astounding NO.

I don't have the time to go through your generalized reporting, but you make several grave mistakes by using data such as "household net worth" and simplifing it by pointing out it has increased $1.2 T. Dig a little deeper. It's not the amount that matters- it's who owns it.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 16:28 | 847395 low_frequency_trader
low_frequency_trader's picture

+1 Exactly. No way is the massive transfer of wealth from those getting pink slips/foreclosure notices to those getting TBTF banker bonuses, and of debt from the TBTFs to taxpayers, going to morph miraculously into a sustainable recovery.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:35 | 847250 bkrolik
bkrolik's picture

Econophile,

 In my humble opinion, it would be extremely useful, if you try to incorporate in your research the similar discussion from The buring platform blog.

It looks like you both take the same or complimentary sets of data, but come to quite different conclusion.

Sincerely,

Bkrolik

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:36 | 850059 Econophile
Econophile's picture

I try to believe what my eyes see, not what I want them to be. Also, I don't republish everything on ZH, and I have written further on this topic on my blog. And, I don't read the burning platform blog. Sorry. Thanks for the comment.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:36 | 847245 andybev01
andybev01's picture

As cynical as I sometimes tend to get, it is refreshing to see a post that is balanced.

 

Or my meds have worn off and the sun is out today, so...

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:32 | 847234 Thanatos
Thanatos's picture

Yeah the fake statistics show things getting better.

When I see Dancing with the stars replaced with "Enumerating your constitutional Rights", I will believe that things have changed.

Until then.... Fuck Off.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 16:53 | 847452 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

+1 ROFL

He spun, his laugh and motion both like water spilled down silk, cape furling behind him in the duel and then crushed the head of his opponent with a busted off piece of porch rail from the premier whorehouse of Reddick, Indiana.

That sir, was some beautiful art in your reply.  Somewhere, your 6th grade creative writing teacher is smiling.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 06:23 | 848683 Thanatos
Thanatos's picture

Sorry for the tantrum.

I should resolve to not contribute if I can't rise above a 6th grade response. Hehe.

Presentation of the Fuck Off falicy is weakness on display, I admit. But what is a fella to do when confronted with pile upon pile of steaming bull crap?

Eventually you get numb, put on the helm of ignorance, fire up the fuck-off dozer, put 'er in low and plow on through.

I think we are all getting closer to that f-o point and it will be the best worst day ever when we all take that leap into consequence.

 

 

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:22 | 847195 BearishFeijoadaSushi
BearishFeijoadaSushi's picture

This guy is being positive (as oposed to normative) which is something unusual at ZH and I appreciate that.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:25 | 847208 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

'Being positive' versus reporting what is reality...

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 16:12 | 847361 tmosley
tmosley's picture

This is the best bullish argument that it is possible to make with real/semi-real numbers.  Throw in the fact that a huge number of these jobs that have been created that are staunching the flow of new unemployed are funded by the government, and as such are non-productive misallocations of capital, and as such are consuming much of what little real capital we have left, and you see that this "boom", is only making the coming coming super-bust even larger.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 16:41 | 847420 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Yes.  Capital allocation is well and truly screwed to the wall.  Also, small business will not hire until Obummercare is dead.  That whole clusterfuck scares the crap out of main street, and rightly so.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:20 | 847183 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

If by 'something,' you mean a complete fraud being made of markets and the bulk of formerly middle class citizens of nations everywhere by Ponzi scheme-peddling and wealth-stealing central bank madmen, plundering the wealth of nations for the benefit of the global, nepotistic and incestuous overlord class, I agree.

Central planning is the new free market. Adam Smith is dead. Keynes is the new god. Pigs with friends in high places are engorged.

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