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South Korea Fired the First Shot
While North Korean leader Kim Jong Il is a madman, and while North
Korea was the first to kill anyone in today's skirmish, it was actually
the South Koreans who fired first.
As AP notes:
The
skirmish began when Pyongyang [i.e. North Korea] warned the South to
halt military drills in the area, according to South Korean officials.
When Seoul [i.e. South Korea] refused and began firing artillery into disputed waters,
albeit away from the North Korean shore, the North retaliated by
bombarding the small island of Yeonpyeong, which houses South Korean
military installations....
And see this.
In addition, the two South Koreans killed were marines, not civilians, stationed in a military town.
Obviously,
firing artillery into the water and actually killing people are very
different, and I am in no way defending North Korea or its crazy leader.
I am simply trying to point out that the headlines can't be taken in a
vacuum.
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That is typical bully behaviour.
Bullies in their twisted view of the world are always victims, are always agressed.
Bullies run around, hitting right, left and center and when one day, they fall on one elbow and get their nose smashed, they are aggressed. They are victims.
That is because bullies do not consider their actions, feel entitled to irresponsibility.
Once withdrawn the SK actions, NK is not a reaction, not a retaliation. It is logically an act of aggression.
Not surprised as SK have been influenced now for a long time by the US and the US has perfected the art of denying that its own actions might trigger reactions.
But yet on tonight Ministry Of Truth 6:30 NBC Evening News they made ZERO mention of this fact of S Korea firing first. Instead, the sheeple got the usual BS 'news' and H. Clinton comments against N Korea.
NBCBSABC should be eliminated for blantant lies. But then again someone has to 'program' the sheeple.
Damn those Muslums according to NBCBSABC... as the US Gov send Saudis billions in advanced weapons, with the Saudis being... Muslims.
The Saudis are Muslims?!?!?!
If one considers the recent "contrail", the co-occurrent surfacing of a Chinese attack sub inside the screen of a US aircraft carrier in the Taiwan Straits and now this event as related, it would seem that our "tolerance" level is being assessed.
Taking the sudden jump in the security measures the TSA has sprung on top of that.
Makes for some interesting speculation over the Holiday.
thanatos
i would think that China is doing a FINE job here, modern war 21st century style....is essentially 'good salesmanship'....some of the recent 'showings' (as in the Diamond Exchange) - the weatherballoon contrail, and the TOTAL disgrace/proven 'obsolescence' of the US Naval Fleet Aircraft Carrier Task force....DONE BY A SINGLE CHINESE SUBMARINE built to proper 21st century technological standards....
I'd venture to guess (don't want to rush into some wrong conclusions, do we...?)
I'd guess WE/USA had better 'listen carefully' VERY carefully think this out...
and then get out of the way....cede back the Western Pacific Ocean (west of Honolulu/Midway) to the Orient...China, Japan, N/S Korea, Taiwan, Okinawa, Guam, PI, Indonesia/Sumatra, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Burma...
ffrom the Aleutians to Russia and North...WE/russia agree to hold THAT territory...time to redivide the World...much has changed 'defacto' since 1945...time to 'deal with it'
China has a long view of geopolitics. They have had single dynasties that lasted longer than this country has been in existence.
Our only real tool at this point is Nuke. If Taiwan gets invaded, we will watch. If S Korea get invaded we will watch.
If the Oil fields in the ME get moved on, we would likely use tac-nukes. Or we could watch it happen.
We are being reduced to a paper tiger with nuclear teeth.
Did anyone see the biggest US satellite ever get launched yesterday? Its a NRO project. Supposedly a listener.
Must be a whole lot of really bulky and heavy commo gear in there huh?
Agree in part. We are a paper tiger as our military lacks any depth or ability to replace loses. Like the M1 we just refurbish them now. Now I think we would fight in Korea, but I strongly doubt there would be a war there. We would abandon Taiwan, agree. Would fight in ME, but not use a nuke. We use a nuke and we would not be able to continue occupation, the world would turn against us.
Nukes are nearly useless as a weapon. It's a detergent. Once a nation uses it the gloves are off, and all the majors are armed and ready to go. The nuclear aggressor will not be well loved. Nukes will not prevent an empire collapse. Didn't help the USSR.
Wow, you seem pretty knowledgeable about our Military so I am surprised by your statement that we would not use a tac-nuke in the ME!
Our doctrine is quite clear on the matter, tacnukes are forward deployed with any unit that can operate them in the ME.
Our anti-sub doctrine is also clear on the use of nuke depth charges when faced with attack by multiple subs.
ICBM's, SLBM's and Space Based Nukes are strategic tools, Tacs are battlefield tools that WILL be used when our forces face overwhelming manpower of our better populated enemies. That is Doctrinal Fact and the training is ongoing.
These reasons are some of what scares me about these small regional conflicts going critical and global.
If you wish, I can post links to sites that document our current Tac-Nuke doctrine.
Re: S Korea, I believe we would fight long enough to establish immediate victory or we would leave under rear guard actions if victory wasn't clear.
The Tac-Nuke doctrine is well understood by all Nuclear Powers. They would not be surprised by their use. They might use it as a tool to escalate though.
Check out this old movie if you get some time... I watched it the other day and found it very similar to what we are encountering today... And that was before the Korea episode... Very insightful as to how things can quickly decay once a loop sets up...
Countdown to Looking Glass [1984]
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8786950669565492785
Amen brother...
Funny how something always comes up around the holidays....
But they told us that we didn't need to worry. It wasn't one of our missiles
It wasn't somebody else's missile.
There was no air traffic in the area.
Nobody reoprted a weather balloon.
Nobody smelt swamp gas.
So it musta been a contrail.
Or a buncha swallows returning to Capistrano. Or butterflies to Pacific Grove.
So it musta been a contrail.
Just like the underwear bomber.
Ya' know, the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that if the gubamint wants to run up a trial balloon on any topic, if it would clear muster here on ZH, it'd work anywhere.
See, we can all sleep better tonight knowing full well that we have a purpose in life. A patriotic purpose. That we are useful and helpful to our fellow man.
And that missile thing sure lasted a long time, didn't it? Right up there on everybody's radar. (ops, pun) The TSA dealie thingie is multiple decibels higher. Does that show who/what the general public feels might be the greater threat?
If you use the "general public" as litmus for anything that requires more than 6 seconds of undivided attention, you will end up just like our Politicians.
The public doesn't know what it just ate, much less what the hell is going on in the world around them.
The "Government" taken as a whole is less capable than most community college debate teams.
There are segments or groups within the Government that drive issues forward, make trouble, etc... It's not a coordinated effort and they rarely know what each other is up to. Some of them know what they are doing. Others are not so sure.
That is why we are in the shape we are in. Too many "Teams" working for their masters who's main goal is Profit and not Quality of Life.
Nobody wants to think about an issue they feel powerless to effect a change on, so they don't.
I think we as a Nation have been owned for quite some time. Who owns us is not so clear to me, but I get the feeling that we are not working for ourselves in areas of National interests.
There is someone out there trying to give us a clue... If we can tear away from Boobies on TV we might start to ask the salient questions.
Let the bread and circuses continue... One day people will wake up and it'll be a new world and sadly, many may not even notice.
Got to think this is a non issue. There is no need to expand it out. Neither side benifits from a real war.
The North would eventually lose, baring an amazing rapid strike strategy and better logistics then I think they have. Winning puts them in roughly the same place they are in now, but with a more wary world.
The South would "win". But in winning Soul would be wrecked, and they would find themselves in possession of NKorea with all it's problems. The integration problems would dwarf those of West/East Germany. It would put SKorea back decades economically.
China likes the status quo.
The only party that would be for war is the US. It would be a show of power to China as well as pushing up locations of bases within easy strike distance of Beijing. Aside from the war economy the US has set up for itself.
Totally disagree with your assessment. First of all nuclear war there is out of question so we have to consider conventional operation. In such situation SK has advantage but only for first and short period of time, after that you would have repeat of Hitler-Soviet, McArthur and Vietnam wars. Second China would never allowSK, American ally, to win and setup new powerful Korean state few steps from their border. Third all those bases are just posturing and police stations, they've lost their usefulness in the era of ballistic missiles, in other words they are good when you fight camel or donkey brigades.
How could Skorea have the initial advantage? NKorea would pound Seoul into rubble in the opening hours. I hear losing your capital right away is not good. And NKorea would be forced to press an attack. They have access to very limited logistical support and consumables. They would be forced to fight and try to win fast. People I know who have served in that region said in no uncertain terms NKorea would push them out.
SKorea has a population and wealth advantage so of course NKorea would have to move fast. Not to mention SKorea has modern mil tech, can't really say the same for NKorea.
Not worth anything for bases? Did you just say that nukes are out of the question and then say nukes make the bases a moot point? I'm pretty sure having airfields that can't be sunk by Chinese misses like our carriers (floating coffins) is pretty good, but what would I know?
"How could Skorea have the initial advantage?" Answer:"SKorea has a population and wealth advantage" + " Not to mention SKorea has modern mil tech". I'm not sure about that "of course NKorea would have to move fast".
"Not worth anything for bases? Did you just say that nukes are out of the question and then say nukes make the bases a moot point?" Did not say that, ballistic missiles don't have to be armed with nuclear warheads.
And nothin' like a good down to earth god-damned saber rattling Sword of Damocles nuclear holocaust about to doom mankind More that Deftly Managed by a Leader with Plunging Public Ratings to Distract the Masses form The True Agenda, the Relentless Guilt and Penalty Free Rape of the Country.
"Shake that booty."
-Captain Floyd on the Good Ship "Go Fuck Yourself"
+1,000. Very wise analysis.
Thanks.
Can't help but think NKorea is a great boogeyman to have. Kick it minimal assets and then can always rattle it's cage for a roar, or it will roar on it's own to make some news and distract the world. I suppose there could be war there but I'm highly doubtful.
Though the younger Kim has a great opportunity. If he opens up even a little he could probably get a bunch of developmental aid. If he really wants to be a dick he can then close everything down again but it would cost him some good will, and I must assume their mil costs are staggering for such a weak economy. Hell if he wanted to he could probably sell the shop as the next China and use the low cost labor model and try to open up trade, using aid to build low skill factories. Pretty sure SKorea, and Japan would be overjoyed. US not so much but it's not like they could call them out publicly for doing so. Nominally China might even be ok with that. With less tensions the US would have less of an excuse to keep so many boats and men in that region.
Actually when the first korean reports quoting local islanders came out, they were reported as saying they heard bombardments about 30 minutes before the North Korean firings hit their island. I interpreted this as korean-speak for South Korea fired first, and much of the Korean speakers around me thought so, although incredulously they looked. So there you have it, nothing is totally innocent, the South's military exercise going on in the area probably called for some form of provocation of the bogeymen from the North for an assessment as the North seem weakened after reports of military purge by Kim's heir, but still the South would be stupid if they did not expect a retaliation. The key was there was hardly panic this morning as Kospi opened down les than 1%! So expect risk-on trades today, yet again!
"Yeonpyeong, which houses South Korean military installations...." yes, physically located in a VERY provocative location, a perfect set-piece for rational continuation of the July 1950 "Forgotten War", the truce meaning no necessity for re-declaration of war by either 'side'
So far pure, rational Clausewitzian framework...no panic here, not July 1914, not WW3
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_von_Clausewitz
http://www.clausewitz.com/readings/OnWar1873/TOC.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_War
The 'spin' is that this skirmish is related to the N.korean NuclearWarFare growing technical potential...i'd say thats something that China will prohibit, a rogue in its Sphere of Influence...no worry THERE...
The reality is simply, i'd say, that 'Local Issues' = the East Asian power/land/sea reconfiguration is underway
'Underway' meaning that China, not the Japan of 1940, is 'de-facto' the core structure in the evolving 'new normal' oof the East Asian Coprosperity/Economic Sphere
....the Mumbai Stock Market seems to have immediately recognized THIS EXISTING, now overtly enunciated, Polical-Economic Fact...and HAS reacted BADLY, negatively..
The USA, STILL fighting a post 1945 Cold War, needs to take full recognition of the FACT and not try to 'undo' what is essentially, now, 2010 untenable and stupid...the remaining USA occupation forces in S.Korea, Japan, Taiwan are degenerated in meaning/usefulness to being ''human shields' sacrificial lambs....'trigger-points', useful...in reserve, just in case USA wants 'excuse' to wage WAR in East Asia...again...
Time for USA to pull out, NOT PULL-IN and add 'tactical nuclear devices'....the affairs are 'local' and will turn out just fine...if left to be worked out via 'Klauswitzian Diplomacy' = rational, limited, non-nuclear application of military force...
Excellent timing for China, with its 55% of world steel mfg capacity under utilized...everybody wins...if the USA finally 'ends WW2'...its over, obsolete, from 70 years ago...
FYI time for USA to unburden itself from the presumption of being the policeman for the world and moral leader....save a lot of money to be re-deployed into 'infrastructure' and 'rebuilding America'
Of course, reminder that just 40 years after Klaus...WW1, adumberated in precision cause/effect chaotic/fractal-time...'irrational and unpredictable' 'everyone loses'....but even THEN 1919, USA came out the effective winner - inevitable it would WW1 or not...non-rational war/subconsciously empowered, handed over to 'rational clerks, generals, etc' to do the dirty predetermined detail-work...
there is that power 'gap', from conventiional to nuclear, TOO expensive for even the USA to fill....the resultant quantum jump....pure uncertaintly....part of that emsemble being the deployment of the EXISTING World Nuclear Arsenal...it is a legitimate possible resultant...
thermodynamically irreversible and MAD, but possible...is THIS why the aliens have never come to visit...they ALL self-destruct/biological law of growth? [ ha ha ha, that very very old science fiction-story-theme...sprinkle a little pixie fear-dust]