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South Korean Defense Minister Confirms Torpedo Sunk Cheonan; Next Step: Escalation
As Zero Hedge first reported, rumors within the South Korean community that North Korea would receive the full blame for the tragic sinking of the South Korean ship Cheonan have turned out to be true. Today, the WSJ confirms: "South Korea's top military official said Sunday that a torpedo likely
exploded under the Cheonan, the South Korean patrol boat that sank a
month ago near the maritime border with North Korea, edging Seoul even
closer to declaring it was attacked by forces from the North." So with the obvious finally confirmed by everyone, the only question now is "what's next?" According to the WSJ, "South
Korea faces several constraints in penalizing Pyongyang, starting with
the prospect that a military response could escalate into a war that no
one here wants. And the timing of a response may be shaped by an
approaching election and the amount of time and effort it takes to
rally international support for economic penalties." Alas, the animosity between the two countries runs so deep that mitigating the populist response may just be a task a tad too impossible for either administration to accomplish.
Defense Minister Kim Tae-young stopped just short of blaming North
Korea for the March 26 sinking that killed 46 sailors. "I think the
bubble jet effect caused by a heavy torpedo is the most likely cause,"
he said.Also Sunday, the lead investigator of the sinking said his team had
concluded that a "non-contact" explosion tore the ship apart. A salvage
crew on Saturday recovered the ship's second severed half, its bow,
after raising its stern on April 15.The statements marked a turning point in an investigation that has
already seemed long in a place where suspicion of North Korea runs
high. The event has received saturation media coverage. Government
officials have already said privately that they strongly suspect the
North is behind the sinking.But officials largely insisted on waiting to make a final statement
until the ship was recovered, a process hampered by late winter weather
and difficult sea conditions. In the meantime, officials privately say,
they are looking for concrete evidence to build a case to penalize
Pyongyang.Such a response is unlikely to include military force. South Korea
has stopped short of such a response to previous acts of aggression,
from the 1987 explosion of a Korean Air jet near Myanmar to the July
2008 killing of a South Korean tourist at a North Korean resort by a
North Korean soldier. Though the public favors punishing the North,
there is no appetite for any action close to war that would disrupt the
South Korean economy or destabilize the North enough to require the
South to take it over.President Lee Myung-bak said last week he has no intention of invading the North.
The likely recourse, according to a high-ranking government
official, is that South Korea would ask the United Nations Security
Council to create new economic penalties that would be imposed by many
countries. Meanwhile, Seoul would end its own remaining economic
activities with North Korea.
It is easy to see why neither side wants war to be the ultimate outcome. Yet that may be more difficult to achieve than anticipated:
If North Korea is ultimately blamed, South Korean officials don't expect difficulty building public support to penalize it.
While the long-tense relations between the two Koreas thawed after
leaders met for a summit in 2000, the goodwill didn't last long. It
began to disappear after a 2002 naval clash near where the Cheonan sank
killed six South Korean sailors and eroded further when Pyongyang
tested a nuclear weapon in 2006. In the past year, two spy
incidents—including the arrest announced last week of two men sent to
kill a prominent North Korean defector—stamped out much of the
remaining sympathy for the North.
No matter what, we are confident that US capital markets will reward the stocks of defense (and offense) companies richly. After all war is what got America (and the world) out of the Great Depression. Baby steps.
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war. damn right. buy 'em up.
"Likely a torpedo" ...but they look so harmless...
http://lahabrabc.org/bakery-deli/images/torpedo-sandwich.jpg
Yes very cute those torpedoes. In the Arms Dealers Pet Shop they are the cute yapping puppy just wanting to be cuddled.
I think the nations surrounding that fat little pot belly know he's trying to escalate into a war to hedge in his position, (or his son), as the 'Great Leader', and will try to ignore him as much as possible hoping he will go away.
That would probably work, unless of course he takes it to a whole new level.
Yeah, desperation seasoned with psychopathy will do that to you.
Speaking of hedging... I certainly hope he's not working a short position with Goldman on this one... they would do anything for cash you know... Goldman that is!
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_1FDiBPNRSH8/SypI7EA1vbI/AAAAAAAAA8w/C5pvfWZsqWk/s320/Blankfein+as+doctor+evil.jpg
But a war does not strength his position. War is good for the state to establish more control over it's population, but in turn burns up resources, the state could otherwise divert into Christmas bonuses for themselves. NKorea is already a nightmare totalitarian state. It in effect has nothing to gain from a war. A war is dangerous for them because it will actually push the already pissed off population into either rebellion or right into the arms of SKorea. I cannot fathom the geopolitical advantage NKorea would gain by sinking this ship. I understand them throwing temper tantrums and taking a pot shot here and there just to keep some hush money in. Sinking a vessel was a bit over the line. Remember SKorea is actually an economic power, NKorea is a hellish backwater. In a conflict it would be a decisive lose for NKorea.
In this situation the threat of war is good gor NKorea, and to an extent SKorea (their governments of course). But a war would be bad for either party.
Spot on. As always, Shameful.
KJI's position isn't so secure that he couldn't possibly benefit from some limited conflict. He's facing rumblings of popular unrest after his last monetary-policy intervention, and perhaps more seriously he has to get his youngish son fixed up for the succession in a hurry.
How would getting his ass handed to him strengthen his regime? NKorea has 0 chance to actually win a real war with SKorea. I'm pretty sure NKorea's chances to win are about the same as mine in a fight with Brock Lesnar, aka total and complete ass whipping. And limited conflicts have a strange way of turning into total wars. Also explain how he can use those troops to suppress dissent, while fighting a much more powerful SKorea. Plus because of bad conditions I can assure you that NKoreans would welcome their SKorean brothers with open arms. Maybe the Dear Leader is stupid enough to do it, but it's political suicide. He does this and their will be no succession and we will have a united Korea, probably with a burnt out Seoul and major harm done but it would be unified, under SKorea.
When the homeless lunatic with the hand grenade makes it plain that he wants your wallet much more badly than you do, he probably ends up with the wallet and the grenade probably doesn't go off. KJI has had decades of practise with the hand-grenade by now, and he has stacks of goodies to show for it.
Huh, I was unaware the dear Leader was homeless. Last I heard he lived in opulent luxury. Now maybe you're living standards are so good that you consider KJI status as homeless. I think he rather likes his "homeless" status. Sure it's only a network of palaces, servants, and mistresses, but I'm sure he's a man of simple taste.
The problem with the grenade analogy is it's a bluff, the Dear Leader is not homeless, he has EVERYHTING to lose and very little to gain. 99.99999% of people in that position will not risk a life of opulent luxury to squeeze out 1 more palace. It just doesn't happen. Yeah KJI will threaten, but ultimately he is a child throwing a temper tantrum in the store. Giving him stuff is more about shutting him up then any real fear. After all if all it took was being crazy to make the world submit, then why didn't Stalin take over the planet when he got the bomb? I dare say Stalin era Soviet union, or even Kruschev was a lot more scary then NKorea.
Unless he needs to distract his population. I agree, he doesn't want war, he wants his peoples eyes on something else besides their empty tummies.
No one has explained to me how war is a good distraction here though. Explain it to me. Explain to me how going to war when the people are starving and their dream is to flee gets their minds off it? I have to assume that most of the people will be thinking "Gee I hope SKorea wins...I hear they have food in SKorea". When your country is known for CANNIBALISM, it's a bit rought to inspire the people. Unless KJI war cry is "We are going to steal their rice!!!"
Distracting people can work but not when their basic needs are not being met. It's hard to drum up patriotism when people are starving and have a rough idea it's your fault. People assume that war is a magic cure all to get people's minds off things. That is not the case from the history books. It has been in the modern time because in the modern time most of the time the population is kept feed till deep into the war. Go back further say to the middle ages and it's quite common to see revolts happen because the war is draining off food, creating starvation, and taking away the young. Wars actually tend to make an unhappy population more unhappy, not less. War revolts were quite common back in the day. It's only good when the basic needs are met, and a good spin can be put on it. IE it would work in the USA but not NKorea.
But by all means explain to me why a starving peasant would give a rats ass if KJI went to war, except for the fact maybe he might get some food is SKroea won.
There is going to be no war. Seoul is in artillery range. SK has so much to lose, NK, not so much, it doesn't matter if they would be the eventual victors. They already have nothing. This is a continuation of "pay attention to us, and give us oil and food." They have no strategy other then belligerence and sabre rattling.
Would you punch the crazy homeless guy who pisses in your doorway if you knew he would burn your building down while your family slept? No, you would just yell at him (sanctions).
The intruiging part of this is what China will do. If China tries to step up and act on the international stage, NK has the threat of a refugee crisis. If China does nothing, they look like shirkers and less engaged then they would like, since they have been in the biz of raising their profile.
The NK people have no role in this. They know nothing except whatever propaganda is sent to them. Motivating them, pacifying them etc., it doesn't matter.
Keep an eye on China. If they give aid in exchange for disarmament/deescalation it will be a milestone in their development. Maybe the can persuade some dissafected generals who don't want some 27 y/o punk kid being their boss.
I agree there will be no war because both parties have to much to lose. And KJI doesn't have nothing. He has his opulent lifestyle to care about. And again I will point to self interest. All people care about self interest. All it will be is saber rattling and asking for loot, that's my whole point. That is why an attack on the boat makes 0 sense. It's much easier to stage some missile test to try to get a headline, or invite Chavez or something over for a photo op to get in the paper.
For China I don't know. I think that they are basically waiting for the Dear Leader to kick off, but I could be wrong.
Have to disagree about the people though. I don't care how brainwashed a person is, they know hunger sucks and it tends to cause discontent. The discontent is almost always pointed at the immediate system they are in.
blowing up the boat is taking it up a notch from a missle test.
who knows, maybe china did it so they have an excuse to junk douche il clown.
as far as the pop., they have been thrown into gulags and starved by the millions, esp. during the 90's, if they didn't do anythign then, they won't now. they aslo just revalued whatever money they use over the by 100:1, people got pissed etc., but nothing close to an overthrow.
The people in NK ARE brainwashed. They think of KJI as a god and are grateful to him for every morsel of food that they can get their hands on. It's ALL propaganda there.
Shameful:
I'm guessing that 'fearless leader' is acting as a factotum or cat's paw for some larger combination of interests seeking to muddy the waters-and/or tighten the screws, so to speak, to see how, not only we react, but our allies reactions to what we do or don't do.
Absolutely, Kim is rich, but he's riding a tiger. When he does a shakedown, he's not playing for one more palace, he's trying to get what he needs to keep what he has, including his kingdom and the head on his shoulders. (By now it's very likely that he wants to secure his succession more than anything, and that he's willing to take significant risks to do that.) On the other side of the coin, what he demands is rarely a big sacrifice for the US or RoK: it's not as if he's demanding to occupy Seoul. Add to that his total ruthlessness and the carefully-cultivated (and maybe partly accurate) impression that he (or someone else in the regime) might just do something totally irrational to save face.
There's no "popular dissent" in NKorea to speak of (or for Kim to worry about) AND he actually believes he could "win" a conventional war with the South (and who knows, maybe he could if we didn't intercede). He a lunatic. Trying to apply "logic" is fruitless. He's shot down civilian airliners and kidnapped ordinary Japanese citizens in other bizarre moves. There's simply no rationality to North Korean actions, as we understand the concept.
It's like trying to understand the "logic" of a spoiled teenager.
Teenagers often die taking stupid risks.
Usually when the US media portrays a leader as a bad guy, I stop and really open my mind and try to understand who gets what out of that portrayal. Shameful, you are trying to make sense out of something that is either senseless, or, you do not have access to the point of view of a crazy dictator. Some men think with their dicks, some with their wallets, some want righteousness, etc. This one? I think it is about the story of him. A successful narcissist who has really arrived.
This guy makes my normally pacifist stance on most things totally fall apart. Sometimes someone needs a good "extracting" from his/her situation. It's one thing if you are a homeless drunk who wants to be worshiped, it's another one if you are a dictator with nukes.
I look at it from the stance of self interest. Same reason most dictators do not overstep their bounds, there is a limit to how far they can push and maintain their lives and power. The life of a dictator is precarious because it could be cut short by overreaching. Most are actually quite content with pillaging their own nation. Pol Pot, Chavez, Mugabe come to mind. They pillage their nation, and would of course like more loot, but if they overstep their bounds they lose everything including their lives. Because most dictatorships descend into such corruption it is actually difficult for them to build a proper war machine most of the time because of the inherent corruption, graft, and economic weakness.
Humans are motivated primarily not for the thought of gain, but the desire to keep what one already has. Like it or lump it these dictators are human. They are more concerned with keeping their power base and their exquisite lifestyle then risking it all on a desperate insane gamble for a little bit more. Even if the Dear Leader was mad, I will wager that his advisers know what is going on. That if they were to engage in a war they to would lose their lifestyle of plenty and perhaps their lives. Never underestimate the fear of loss when gauging a person's potential actions.
Also if the Dear Leader was "mad", why not pop off a nuke already? Simple because he knows much like everyone does that if you use it you lose everything. Ironically nukes are a great source of world security, prevents conflicts among those who have them.
Shameful, you make the mistake of imparting rational behavior to a hermit dictator. this is a guy who was groomed by his father for 20 years to be a dictator. have you ever read NK propaganda? I'm sure he has started to believe it. Having millions of yes men worhsipping you can warp you sense of reality.
Just browse this site for a bit... http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm
You're assuming KJI hasn't correctly calculated Obama will do anything to prevent war, including leaning on our friends the South Koreans. KJI is after money and power. There's a ninety percent chance he'll get more of both with this attack because Obama lacks the skills to deal with him effectively, lacks the temperament to confront him head-on and wants nothing to distract from his domestic agenda.
NK has nukes.
they do not have a delivery system
you know what is so stupid? They keep continuing to talk of economic penalties or sanctions as a way to hurt NK. They are already under so many sanctions its pathetic, and obviously they don't care if they are provoking. If you ask me, the US needs to keep their nose out of it, and let SK start the bombing runs. Throw a few EMP blasts and knock out all the power, can't launch a nuke. Bomb all the grids so they can't restore power. Then I guarantee NK will cower down. Everytime they need money NK just starts crap or pulls a missle out of the ground threating to shoot it. Everytime, the US gives them more money. Screw that crap.
The problem is that they can destroy Seoul in minutes with artillery fire.
Sucks that the geography puts the world's 5th most populous municipality within artillery range of 80,000 shells per hour.
But still, this is China's backyard. Let them deal with it.
+1
let them deal with it.. if they blow everything up our businesses would be happy to go and rebuild and put them into debt....after bombing there must be 'growth' and that is all wall street listens too
Sucks that the U.S. was responsible for splitting a common peninsula and creating two opposing states. One which is oppressed millions led in fear by 1 and the other a functioning prosperous economy of relative freedom. So who is wrong?
If the U.S. did not become involved with the entire peninsula be capturing by fascism or would it have worked itself out and all of Korea be a united version of SoKo. We will never know HOWEVER natural selection tells us to stay out of the equation and let them work it out BUT natural selection states that us as the strong have a right to exert our influence. All I know is we have an angry nation in NoKo who creates and provokes tension so the scales seem to favor our involvement.
The world seems to be the devil's playground; it is not. Humanity controls its destiny, please do not forget that.
Nice torpedo, that does not home... (sounds like a lucky mine to me) but has control enough to find dead center and detonate... causing a huge bubble to break the spine of the ship... looked to be a 60% - 40% split in the ship.. worst case 70% - 30%... practice makes perfect.
The lil idiot fucker with the badass water slide wants attention, other than he has exactly zero to offer in return other than quiet... I don't see the idiot little fucker getting very far.
Now if he pushes across all 1/3 of the worlds land mines... at the 38th... well God Bless those poor souls... water attack? well, now that the 1989 build is scrap... we will see how the North Korean's do against some newer hardware that we are "O" so happy to provide them with.
http://www.navy.mil/navydata/fact_display.asp?cid=4200&tid=900&ct=4 make Daddy some money bitches, I wonder what the tax burben is for constructiing and then selling one of those off-shore? never mind I answered my own question.. we at least the South Koreans will have something that works.. from this decade even..
Clearly a false flag operation. I suspect Paraguay is responsible.
Note: To be honest, I just wanted to be the first to claim it was a false flag operation.
+++
Your inside tip is incorrect ! Right first letter and hemisphere, wrong country. As I said on a previous post, (I don't like to repeat myself but it is important to keep people in the loop),The Pitcairn Island Secret Service, (PISS) as they are known in the intelligence world, did the dastardly deed. They have just been funded by China and are seeking a share in the land carve up post nuclear war.
....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTRMZk-l_VY
I have that on vinyl, thank you.
For those who believe the US government lies, except when it is inconvenient to their own moral compass, I refer you to the US MK-48 Torpedo, versions 5 & 6, and, the fact that North Korea has no way of launching a torpedo of this size from a submarine. Also note, this torpedo is a proximity explosive device with operational problems that are classified.
In fact, when one researches the submarines operated by the North Koreans, one will understand why it is patently absurd that they would attack anything with a sub.
Maybe it was USGS. (US Government Subs) Or maybe the other USGS (US Goldman Sachs.) The SEC should investigate any short selling of SK stocks immediately
Is there reliable data about their torpedo and sub technology out there? I have looked at the area but not so much as the weapons tech. I had assumed that NKorea got most of their weapons tech from China.
then why do they have subs?? just to tool around for a spin?
ships can launch a torpedo as well. maybe a junky fishing boat rigged up by NK
Yes, during WW2 HMAS Sydney (I think a heavy cruiser) was sunk by what was effectively a German torpedo boat dressed up as a merchantman, the Kormorant.
Sydney stupidly approached to a distance where it could not bring its heavy guns to bear & was sunk with all hands.
Anyway, why all this discussion about whether NK might have had motive to sink the SK ship. What about the USA? Give me one good reason why the US Navy didn't fire the torpedo.
Is the USA at war with anyone? for what reason/s?
If the Stars and Stripes was turned upside down would you call that a "False Flag" ?
"...a military response could escalate into a war that no one here wants. "
TD, how can you be sure that North Korea doesn't want exactly that? Or at least wouldn't mind a little war to rally the people and take their mind off the failed currency reform?
If the gov't is desperate enough, they wouldn't mind a conflict.
B_Thunder,
Using the same rational, Greece should start a war with Cyprus over the proper pronunciation of modern Greek.
Sparta vs Athens with Crete tag teaming, or maybe that has already been tried...
I don't know about you, but my dad told me "Shameful, never get into a fight...unless you are sure you can win". Situation holds true here, you don't get into a fight unless you think you can win. Look at the military and economic comparison...it's insanely lopsided. Short of using nukes, NKorea has no way to win. NKorea has massive logistic and supply problems, as well as population that would like to be under SKorea rule. If a fight breaks out and I would not be surprised to see entire companies of NKorea troops surrender to get away from the Dear Leader.
The only way NKorea would have a chance to win is if China backed them up. This seems unlikely to be from a geopolitical standpoint. NKorea is like China's retarded step brother. Sure China will look out for him, but he is not going to get into a knife fight for him. Though I'm sure China would be willing to sell arms, much as the US would be willing to sell arms to SKorea.
NK is devoid of morals, trapped in a corner, and very slightly crazy, which together provide a big edge in a situation like this. You can mug people successfully with a hand-grenade if you have the right gleam in your eye.
I really doubt this will escalate. It's bad for both parties leaders. In a wa it's certain, that if it does not go nuclear, that SKorea will stomp the hell out of NKorea.
So the situation would send the Dear Leader is out on his ass. SKorea wins then they get reunification of Korea...and gets to deal with the economic leper that is NKorea. If you thought integration of Germany was bad for West Germany this will be a whole new level! Ultimately this is bad for both groups of leaders. NKorea loses their place of power at the top of a police state. SKorea gets saddled with a backwater hellhole to rebuild. No winners except maybe China/US who might make a little money selling weapons.
Looking at the situation it's likely that it will bring some harsh words and both sides will buy more arms and continue to look at each other across the border.
I am starting to think that the US has tech that might be able to stop one or two nukes from even leaving the ground or at least getting out of NK airspace. I am starting to think NK would end up nuking themselves. How long has it been since we showed what cards we held militarily that would be useful in this situation? Every war the US has fought recently has been a counter-insurgency/conventional war. The US hasn't had to use anything all that interesting.
I think the thing that was just launched was exactly this card. Maybe the US can provoke the dear leader into launching just so his hand can be called. Or maybe it was a bluff...
I think you grossly overestimate our skill. My current roommate worked as an engineer for the air force a while back and they did one thing primarily, waste money. Sure there might be some research that happens but mostly it's just pouring money down a rat hole. I mean if you spend a trillion a year your bound to have something to show for it, but lets not call it a model of efficiency. Also I read up on our missile interceptor tech, I would rather go rather drive a Pinto in a destruction derby then trust our interceptor tech.
The real trick is Uncle Sugar doesn't give a flying fuck about us. If Uncle Sugar could decided he could make more money selling our organs and could get away with it, he would do it in a heartbeat. And really why should Uncle Sugar give a damn about KJI. The nuke wouldn't be coming to us, it would be doing to SKorea.
i really do not believe NK has miniturized a nuke to the point where it is deliverable by missile. i do not see some lumbering bomber making it through air def. if you are aware of some type of delivery system, please post it.
Tunnels under the border? Some kind of kamikaze diesel sub? A shipping container hidden in Seoul? I think there are non-nuclear precedents for all of these in Kim's bag of dirty tricks. Not that a nuclear capability is really critical for a man who can just flatten Seoul with artillery.
good counterpoints drapier. thx.
North Korea has some very smart engineers. Abdul Qadir Khan and his underlings met with many of them. Do not underestimate the North Koreans. In WWII many British and Australians thought the Japanese were inferior, slanty eyed Asian peasants with no fighting skill or strategic nous whatsoever. Blind love of a leader and empire can induce super-dangerous fanaticism. An autonomous population is far less likely to be swayed by a malevolent dictator. On a "Degree of Autonomy" rating the North Korean population would be at the bottom of the global ladder. The place makes Cuba look like a free-speech paradise. If a war breaks out on the Peninsula the carnage on both "sides" will be horrific. Sth.Korea and its allies will win, but it will be a Pyrrhic victory. Everything must be done to avoid a conflict, but if push comes to shove and the North launches artillery attacks a military response will be absolutely justified. One must stand up to people that want to hurt you. As Ecclesiastes states there is a time and place for everything...
Hmmm. I wonder what the US would do if it was one of our ships that was attacked?
Start a war that killed a million people?
And that was on the basis of an incident that never happened...
I was thinking of the attack on the USS Cole. Which did, most decidedly, happen.
I was thinking of Gulf of Tonkin. Even McNamara eventually owned up that the second incident, which provoked war, was a joke.
USS Maine as well
Send them a couple of billion dollars a year?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Liberty_incident
I love how this incident never gets any run. This shows what the US gov is capable of when it wants something and exactly how much Israel really cares about US servicemen. If this can be ruled an accident then anything could be an accident. Maybe Japan should claim that their strike fleet got blown off course and attacked Pearl Harbor mistaking it for a Chinese harbor.
And so it goes... Welcome Mr Biden, thank you for your generosity and support. By the way we will build all the settlements we want, and if you don't like it tough shit... On your way out would you mind blowing up Iran for us? And tell your boss to stop scowling, we are only victims here and don't appreciate criticism.
This relationship reminds me of how Moe kept poking Curly in both eyes and slapping him on the head. Hapless Curly just stood there and took it, looking bewildered and hurt. Guess which one we are.
ehh..you saying that really makes me ask the question, "How is it that we have morphed into the protectorate of the world in supposed defense of liberties that we here at home dismiss daily in pursuit of what?"
The defense of a small piece of land that serves us no purpose because our nation is chick full of those of the Jewish faith is an easy target and perhaps one they wish for us to believe. In my opinion it is solely geopolitical in that it provides the U.S. with an excuse to be present in the region strategically and that is as far is it goes. It is impossible for the U.S. to play "World Police" and turn a blind eye to atrocities in Africa, Adia and the human rights question in turning the Chinese into modern day stealth slaves of labor under the guise of capitalism.
I love this nation and it's foundings and I wholeheartdely are in favor of a stance against evil but like charity it cannot be viewed as a "what is in it for us?" premise.
The smartest thing the U.S. could do is recoil into a isolationist stance and pull out of EVERY nation. It is a contradiction to proclaim pro-liberty and cherry pick your battles. We need other nations like a hole in the head. We can manufacture for ourselves, pay ourselves better, we possess the envy of the world regarding technology and the only purpose to whore ourselves out is for corporate profit by exploiting other nations labor. It benefits the few.
What we are doing regarding oil is intelligent. We should expend foreign resources while they are cheap and converse our own for when they have increased value.
Naiive isolationism will not work in 2010. I resolved this question ten years ago. The level of interconnectedness of the world today is self-evident. How would you solve the pirate problem off Somalia ? How about air-traffic control ? Natural disasters like the tsunami and early warning systems ? Trade ? Terrorism which is not national ? Refugees ? etc, etc. This topic is fit for another place. We should stay on topic, or else these threads end up looking like a dog's breakfast. If the Peninsula blows up the whole world will be affected, mark my words...
The only reason NoKo would do this is because they like the rest of the globe is confident that the President will stand by and do nothing but write an angry letter, give a speech of warning about blah blah sanctions. It is only a matter of time before Russia begins to provoke. They already had us scrap the missile shield and next up as anti-American rhetoric in order to enhance their own appearance of strength to the world. Should happen with in 2 years
It is only a matter of time before Russia begins to provoke.
You mean they've not been?
Yeah, this Smart Diplomacy(tm) stuff is working wonders. Don't you think.
from everything i have ever heard/read, the missle defense system is a joke that never passed one meaningful test and is mostly a MIC funding bonanza.
After numerous tries they managed to get two of our own missiles to collide with each other. Once that happened testing was stopped and the "Missile Defense" system declared operational (under pressure I believe from Mr Cheney). I never could figure out what Russia got so upset about since the advantage in this game will always belong to the offensive team. Which may be why nobody else is trying to do this.
It would be wise not to underestimate President Obama.
Yeah, I'm sure Barry's got it all under control.
The problem for South Korea is that Seoul is near the border.
North Korea has 13,000 artillery pieces on its side of the border that are capable of hitting Seoul. The capital could be destroyed by artillery bombardment in the first few days of any conflict. Many of these artillery pieces are well dug in or mobile or on rail cars. The chances of destroying enough in time is virtually zero.
If your objective is simply to cause damage to a target as big as a capital city it doesn't really matter if the artillery is unsophisticated compared to US smart and precision weapons. So long as they can lob tons of high and incendiary explosives the right distance they'll get the job done.
Military conflict is unthinkable for South Korea due to what would happen to its capital.
In any large scale military action only very early use of nuclear weapons could prevent the destruction of Seoul. Due to its location you can imagine China's feelings on their use.
+300000
What does the +300000 figure mean ? The number of dead in the first day of a war ?
P.S. I like your screen name. Do serfs like to surf ?
just mean i strongly agree. get tired of using+1
thx, i wouldn't know about surfing, I am too busy tilling to pay my master. Lord Saliie May
Nothing will ever happen without China's approval surely?
If the Chinese could ever be persuaded to stop backing North Korea, no war is necessary - they supply 90% of North Korea's oil. Cut it off, and the government will find it impossible to maintain control over their people.
If the US could march to Baghdad in two weeks then there is no real reason why US/ROK could not do the same and reach Pyongyang and be done with the issue... militarily.
The Norks are armed with ex Soviet junk and though they have 2000 artillary tubes or whatever on the DMZ after 67 years peering at them and spending a fortune on developing and fielding Precision guided munitions they shouldn't be firing for long... unless you live down range. This is not about a war it is about why in the hell China persists in allowing this regime to exist. Is it a trade for Taiwan? If it is then we need to say 'no deal' and get rid of the NORK's by mother's day.
How many civilian casualties are you willing to accept until the tubes are destroyed?
On another note, SK faces a situation with NK similar to that of West Germany / East Germany. If the North falls, then what?
Point noted and understood. That said, a ROK evacuation cum mobilization might drive home the point to Hu Jin Tao that whatever the feelings of the old guard are, North Korea is as much a menace to them, in fact, an even greater one, since push come to shove, they cannot defend it and unless they want to fight a war, NOW, on the Korean peninsula they'd better get rid of their Frankenstein.
huh huh...he said "cum mobilization"..huh huh
Let's see.... a successful demo of a "kamikaze" torpedo... "jihadi" buyers lined up.... next stop.... ummmmmm.... Persian Gulf?
The only one that has something to gain in a Korean war redux?
China, and possibly the US.
I smell a rat(s).
Waterdog:
NK dosesn't have a sub to do the job anyway huh? Interesting.
We live in Machiavellian times. The truth is always 2 or 3 levels deeper than the "facts" presented.
Unless and until someone can prove that NK has the hardware to accomplish the job I have to assume a set-up of some kind.
Gulf Of Tonkin anyone?
As Benny Hill showed on his blackboard, just before patting the little bald guy on the head and chasing the girls around the park, when you assume you make an "ASS out of U and ME !"
You should try and get your straights fact.
Yours truly served in the ROK. One afternoon @ 2:00 we went on alert because the Zips from the north had supposedly crossed the border en masse. The alert was cancelled two hours later. We subsequently learned that the alert had originally been called for 9:00 AM and was actually cancelled at 11:00 AM! The U.S. presence in the ROK is essentially a trip wire. If the Zips attack, we get slaughtered and the folks back home demand retribution. That's the plan anyway. Have a nice day.
I had a buddy who was in SKorea as a scout and he said the same thing. Nice to know Uncle Sugar really cares about the boys in uniform.
Good on you for serving !
That border is incredibly tense. I remember reading about the 1976 Axe Murder Incident. The soldiers stationed on the 38th parallel are under enormous stress. A memorable movie from Korea, out of eight I have seen, is "The Guard Post". The border problem is etched very deeply on the psyche of the population. (My favourite Korean movie is 2003's "Spring, Summer, Autumn, Winter and Spring". Absolutely beautiful ! Even the memory of the film gives me hope for the Peninsula.)
So yesterday.
Today's battles are fought with subversion and "Godlike" financial weapons of captive destruction.
Send Goldman's crew over there to deal. Now that would be God's work.
Yep,
The Squid could destroy NKorea with some well-designed OTC derivatives.
Betcha DARPA is onto it right now.
WAR! WAR! WORLD WAR!! Now the world economy will recover, at least the military-related industries!
With total global war the US budget deficit will really explode!
Defense already accounts for 58% of the discretionary spending of the US government, topping 1 trillion dollars a year in 2010:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=18852
Now is time to explode some bombs more and explode the deficit!
Analysis based on Western principles (rationality, Clausewitz, etc) are futile.
North Korea discovered a one-way "face" trade.
They gained "face", and the South has no way to respond.
It's the playground bully who sucker punches you for "no reason".
It's not about the punch. It's about making you look and feel like a dweeb, knowing you can't punch back, because the adults don't really care what the bully does, only what you do. So you suck it up.
Nothing will happen, because nothing _can_ happen. The adults (US, China) will see to it.
Exactly. It is the same way with Pakistan and India. Pak gov't approves some militant group operations inside India. Indians will be totally enraged, there's a lot of heated talk and posturing, maybe some military manouvers, and that's it. Time for curry.
No need for war, let just send GS to help the north organize their investments.
GS is already their IB
If n.korea and s.korea start a war maybe u.s. ceo`s will have to bring back some jobs to the usa !!!!!!!!!!!!!! we can hope !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
In a parallel universe, there's a Big Boys Club, where the BBs take roles and go rule. Each BB is called upon to rule over and create a certain environment, a middling democracy here, a pesthole there, a raging pit of fire over there. When the time in the schedule comes to "annihilate your populace" do you think they don't do what's in the program?
But please remember this is a parallel universe with no relationship to this "reality."
Be safe out there.
I wonder what Gerald Celente thinks of this...
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/4/24_G...
o/t- this is great and is my political orientation. " Gerald Celente is a political atheist. Unencumbered by political dogma, rigid ideology or conventional wisdom, Celente, whose motto is “Think for yourself,” observes and analyzes the current events forming future trends for what they are – not for the way he wants them to be"
Also, Gerald is an old school Bronx guy (my father is an old school Brooklyn guy), they don't make em like that anymore. No nonsense, see through the BS, I love it.
Everyone keeps saying neither side wants war. Yeah, yeah just like Muslims don't kill people over religion. What is wrong with people who have a crazy standing in front of them shouting hatred and murder and then calmly say - "No that isn't what you believe,"?
Damn right it's what they believe. You just refuse to see reality if it isn't convenient. People who don't want war don't torpedo their neighbors ships.
China has problems trying to manage its economy and would be most angry with NKorea destablising the entire region who are major trading partners.
The most likleymessage from China to NKorea would be that if you look like making big trouble we will quickly render you impotent.
Before the war against Korea, this country was generally introduced as the oldest existing country in the world.
In South Korea, two hatreds are palpable: hatred towards the US and hatred toward North Korea.
The hatred toward the US is easy to understand. Yet the hatred to North Korea was food for thought when thinking that NK/SK shared a much longer history together than split. And about the story of genetical proximity and stuff.
Right at this second, thank G-d, there are whole teams of people watching North Korea's every move. The DPRK military personnel who ordered this attack are trying to manipulate international conditions to their favour. Do not underestimate the power of nationalism even in a starving population. Stalin was able to rouse and prepare the peasants quite easily with a bit of Eisensteinian "Alexander Nevsky" propaganda years before Barbarossa. The NK watchers should be trying to gauge the public mood of the North. They DPRK leadership clique have misinterpreted the will and intelligence of their southern neighbours on many occasions however. Sometimes restraint is the hallmark of true strength. The South Koreans are incredibly resourceful, pragmatic and hard working. They have been dealing with brother next door for sixty years. The attack on the warship was highly significant however. There is a way to effect change in the North. China has a big part to play. If the North Korean leaders feel they have no way out things may escalate. The “Us versus Them” dynamic is ingratiated into the populace. Many North Koreans did fight valiantly against the Japanese in the 1930’s and 40’s and such pride must be factored in to all deliberations. They do watch the geo-political landscape and try and calibrate their decisions hence. Unfortunately their instruments and methodology are in need of repair. (I wonder what their Axis-of-Evil Twin Iran thinks about this attack on an ally of the USA ?) A desperate man should not be painted into a corner. The psychology of the North is complex. Groupthink can be changed if an understanding of the power and focus dynamics is attained. In this interconnected world things can change pretty quickly. More attention must be paid to the Peninsula and a long-term game plan worked out for all the players. The current situation is unsustainable. A great crisis can lead to great opportunity.