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Sovereign Default Update: Spanish Intelligence Agency Is Probing CDS/FX Speculators
Spanish National Intelligence Agency (CNI) is investigating whether the Spanish economy and the euro have fallen victim to a concerted attack by speculators and foreign media (El Pais)
Via Dow Jones: Agents working for the CNI's Economic
Intelligence unit have over the last couple of weeks been checking if
"attacks by investors and the aggressiveness of some Anglo-Saxon news
outlets are a result of the real market dynamics and challenges faced
by the Spanish economy, or if there's something else behind the
campaign," the paper said.
Serious debt problems in smaller
euro-zone economy Greece sparked a tumble in Spain's stock market and a
sharp increase in the cost of insuring Spanish sovereign debt against
default in recent weeks. Investors, worried that a fast-rising
government budget deficit and a weak local economy may hurt Spain and
other ailing countries ability to repay debt, have also placed huge
bets against the euro in currency markets."Agents of the CNI are in frequent contact with several leading experts in the field of economy and financial markets."
Wall Street helped mask debts shaking Europe (NYT)
Γερμανογαλλικ? εγγ?ηση στα ελληνικ? ομ?λογα – Πως θα κινηθε? το ΧΑ - Here's to hope for another €5 billion Greek bond deal - the question: will it be guaranteed by Germany/France (B(T)ankingNews.gr)
Majority of Germans want Greece expelled from the euro zone(Reuters)
Dubai stocks plunge after disclosure Dubai World to pay 60 cents on dollar (Bloomberg)
European finance ministers meet to discuss week ahead (Economist)
Greek FinMin unveils tax reform, wage policy, outlawing of cash: "From 1. Jan. 2011, every transaction above 1,500 euros
between natural persons and businesses, or between businesses,
will not be considered legal if it is done in cash. Transactions
will have to be done through debit or credit cards" (Reuters)
Greek Britain? (BBC)
Greek saga won't kill the euro but the end may begin here (Telegraph)
»
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Cast blame is sometimes a strong spell but
it won't work for them this time. It _is_ a
sign of how late in the game they are.
And too early to pursue justice. "La Guillotine shall claim her bloody prize"
Anyone seen Mozilo lately? Gorelick? Maybe to keep our spirits up while we push our net liq up we should frolic about a 2010 Death List.
Who will fall on their sword first?
Who gets pushed on their sword first?
Who flees justice to Madrid first?
Who...you get the picture. Vegas is so screwed. The very least they can due is introduce new "innovative" proposition bets where the payout means the jig is up. The news is out. And we finally find them.
The pursuit of justice this time may surprise even the greatest skeptic of revolution.
Maybe calling Interpol and asking the rest of the world to investigate Spain is a more appropriate path to follow.
I saw some pictures of the guys who are currently fucking up the euro.
http://www.federaljack.com/?p=12550
They all went to a meeting at some time on some island or something.
...and the hits just keep on rolling here on WBZH. Sad really that sovereigns have given up the ability to manage their own economies and currencies to private super national central banks and individuals outside of the span of sovereign control or influence. Now that the whole process has for all intents and purposes spun so far out of control as to render any other sovereign action moot sovereigns have decided to start with the hurrumph action. The only thing that would garner any real interest is if Spain were to actually produce findings and hold those accountable criminally, render the perpetrators to prison and their wealth to the state/crown. The essence of the matter is if sovereign governments can in fact regain sovereign control or not.
And now todays TV listings....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYKJz05fEVo
"Sad really that sovereigns have given up the ability to manage their own economies and currencies to private super national central banks and individuals outside of the span of sovereign control or influence."
I hope you are being sarcastic and not just being dumb.
Just in case you were not, those Sovereigns were very happy to pay their luxury lives much above what whealth they produce with credit from individuals outside...
Btw why Chile can get a 6,3% Public Debt and European Countries are in dozens of tens approaching hundreds and some are already in hundreds. Can you explain that?
Anon, for some reason I like you. So, I recommend that you spend a little more time learning how some folks express themselves around here. Although I am willing to wager that Google Translate has a tough time discerning the subtle and not so subtle nuances of implication. To answer your question would take an article and I don't do those at ZH since in this arena I am more of a JAFO than anything else. If you desire to explore the topics surrounding the history and practice of Chilean public finances vis a vie its neighbors and/or the EU area I suggest you write it. ZH could use a bit more exposure to the rest of the "Americas".
Have a great week masked one and I look forward to reading your submissions.
Its like a fucking cancer. These CDS are like the Pods on invasion of the body snatchers. They are spreading all over the place. We are the ones yelling, THERE COMING!!!!! THERE COMING!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Cant someone Pull a Donald Southerland and get a sledge Hammer already?
The sledgehammer may well be a repudiation of the bankers and a debt jubilee, but that's probably years if not decades into the future.
Two years.
This IMO is a good start
http://www.swarmusa.com/vb4/content.php/184-Freedom-s-Vision-Monetary-Re...
But it needs to be shortened considerably (preferably into a 'one sheet'). Skip down to 'MONETARY REFORM:'.
Two years should do it.
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/
Enter a man in a dinner jacket, wearing a .22 Beretta under his left armpit. "My name is Bond. Jaime Bond."
"Joo keeled my fodder...Preparre to diee."
Call it The Spy Who Loved The Princess Bride.
``Greek FinMin unveils tax reform, wage policy, outlawing of cash: "From 1. Jan. 2011, every transaction above 1,500 euros between natural persons and businesses, or between businesses, will not be considered legal if it is done in cash. Transactions will have to be done through debit or credit cards"''
You can't make this stuff up. Oh dear.
Got GOLD?
Got GOLD?
Absolutely
Italy have had something similar for about 2 years but it didn't make the headlines. It's all about marginalising the black market in thise countries. It'll soon appear in Spain, where about 80% of business in the area I work in was conducted under the table up to now.
Shit, Tyler. My wife is getting really pissed off on this Valentine's Day! Thanks for keeping us well-informed and updated.
Okay, okay...two dozen then.
roses or silver bars?
Instead of just coming clean , the Governments use the 'oxymoron' ... Intelligence term to aid them in the ignorance campaign.
as if euro is better than any other s*** paper. they're ALL PAPER, get it into your heads. and they WILL ALL LOSE against GOLD.
Found it interesting. This past weekend I spent some time in Ridgefield, CT looking at properties. Some to the realtors quoting asking prices in $ and Euros. Never saw that before.
and agree. they are all shitpaper.
Final Shootout
Remember "Enemy of the State"? As the world's central bankers play "begger thy neighbor"--with bazookas all around--we may actually end up in a total shootout.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6FRXnmISBo
Was it Faber or Rogers who declared that WWIII has already started?
They want to stop world war and just turn civil war into outmatched gang violence.
I'm watching congress talk about sustainable budgets. It's really quite humerous. If we pay off all our debt we destroy all our currency and nothing stands between trade except cash. Interesting that they want to clamp down and make cash illegal.
Cash illegal, gold and silver illegal. If you fight you get your bank account turned off and it's all on you to conform to arbitrary stupid, unfair, unjust rules of a minority. We'll all come together as one under the authority of a few and then we'll all fight in the biggest Civil War in the history of the planet. Only Civil will be a misnomer as people who are ganged up against by overwhelming forces can't afford to use any sort of measured resistance.
I suggest that when it goes down you or I will not be among those that are ganged up against by overwhelming force. Until it does though we appreciate the forces that have been and will be brought to the fore by the minuscule minority as it attempts to sacrifice everyone else to maintain a status quo that interestingly has already been abandoned.
next leg down begins shortly: This is just a bear market rally..March lows retested
You can't have it both ways. You can't have high debt to GDP and expect to pay low debt to GDP bps for credit. The exception to this at the moment is the US but that too will end and end badly I think.
If you don't want the speculation then don't run up the debt. This could all have been prevented, regardless as to whether these peripheral states are less competitive than the core EU, they didn't have to hand over expensive social programs. And if they had any sense to begin with they would have recognized that if things went south, as they invariably do at some point, that they would be in more trouble.
Debt, and especially massive debt, just opens you up to all sorts of boogy men. Banking on future income to pay for present day "wants" is a bad deal when it gets out of control. Just look at the mortgage refi extraction and HELOC situation..living beyond our means.
The funniest thing about this is that they are right, yet they would try exactly the same thing to take the heat off of themselves. Anglo media (US and UK) and Anglo speculators have surely played a part. However, the PIIGS are running unsustainable economies.
It makes me laugh when you see these assholes on TV suggesting a "concerted, fully cohesive and cooperative" effort among all countries to try and right the ship here. All economies are so indebted and have pulled forward decades of demand, all are going down together.
It gets exciting now, as the shit-slinging really goes into overdrive. Let's see how they keep the stock market going up and bond auctions being filled now. Things are about to get exciting!
Its amazing how bonds and equities have been propped up thus far...something must give
interesting times indeed
Fear Takes the Wheel | Peter Schiff | LewRockwell.com | February 13, 2010
Over the past three or four years a strange phenomenon has developed in the global investment markets. With some exceptions, many asset classes, in particular domestic and foreign equities, commodities, and foreign currencies have tended to move in the same direction on a day-to-day basis. The mega-correlation has lasted so long that most now take it for granted. This leaves investors with relatively simple choices: when to get in to the market in general and when to park assets in cash and U.S. Treasuries.
However, few recall that this pattern is relatively new in the annals of financial history. Fewer still realize the reason for the current anomaly. From my perspective the most logical explanation is fear, which has become global, pervasive, and persistent. Traditionally, when investors fear inflation they buy stocks, commodities, gold, and foreign currencies, and sell dollars and U.S. treasuries. When they fear deflation they sell stocks, commodities, gold, and foreign currencies, and buy dollars and U.S. treasuries. The problem is that right now, no one knows which one to fear. Depending on the news the pendulum swings from one extreme to another on a daily basis.
The natural consequence of an inflationary boom should be a deflationary bust. We've had the boom, but so far we have avoided the lion's share of the bust, or at least the deflationary part. If the government were pursuing a sounder monetary policy, one that allowed markets to function properly, the deflationary scenario would be playing out. While in the long run this is the correct approach, such a scenario would be very bearish for stocks, commodities and many foreign currencies. If on the other hand, the government fights the recession by putting the inflation pedal to the metal (which is the course they have chosen) investors should look to real assets and certain foreign currencies to protect their purchasing power. But for the most part, that is not happening.
The foreign exchange markets seem to be the center point for this inflation/deflation tug-of-war. After all, if asset prices are falling, cash is king. Since the dollar is still the reserve currency, it is the king of cash, and benefits most from the global deflation scenario. When the dollar rises, treasuries go along for the ride, as investors need a "safe" place to park them. But when the U.S. government reveals yet another staggering deficit forecast, inflationary fears come right back. Hence, a market without a clear direction.
Many look at this dynamic from the perspective of risk appetite rather than fear. They claim that when investors seek risk, they buy risky assets, such as stocks, but when they are risk adverse they seek the safety. But those who fear inflation sell dollars and treasuries not because they seek risk, but because they seek to avoid it.
Of course, if investors felt that the Fed would actually fight inflation with aggressive rate hikes then higher inflation would be perceived as detrimental to stock performance. However, just about everybody realizes that there is virtually no inflation scenario virulent enough to encourage Ben Bernanke and his cohorts to actually raise rates. In actuality, the most feared probabilities are that inflation runs out of control, or that deflation overwhelms the Fed's efforts to prevent it.
From this perspective regardless of the direction of the stock market, assets are simply being re-priced to reflect one of two very unpleasant outcomes. Those who look at rising stock prices as a harbinger of economic growth are therefore mistaken. These moves more than likely reflect investors growing fear that the U.S. debt levels will swamp the dollar.
Given the extent of the fundamental problems that underlie the American economy, and degree to which government policies are making these problems worse, there can be little conviction that our economy will return to sustainable growth anytime soon. Therefore, attributing stock market strength to inflation fears rather economic strength makes far more sense.
Also, if higher U.S. stock prices really did result from an improving U.S. economy, the dollar would be rising in tandem with stocks. However, every time stock prices rise the dollar falls. The best explanation for this dichotomy is that it is inflation not growth that drives both stocks and the dollar. So rising stock prices do not really indicate a bull market in stocks, but a bear market in the dollar. Those who cannot differentiate between the two will continue to misread the market and the economy.
Larouche has always accused Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of being British intelligence.
But, but, but, I thought all was okey dokey with Dubai? I mean, cnbc seemed to suggest so cuz Abu Dhabi stepped in and the problem is all goine, right?
It's so obvious and Dubai, along with the Eurozone, is going to get much worse before it gets better, irrespective of what the financial media tries to spin.
LOL "We fucked up our fiscal situation, so we're going after the people that are shitting on our bonds!!"... riiiiight....
Ambrose is british intelligence
hes the only on in mainstream media who has any clue whats going on
It will be very interesting to see how this works out. I have no doubt a similar rule will be coming to the US when the SHTF - eventually without any transaction limit: all transactions will have to be credit or debit. This allows electronic tracking of your purchases for tax purposes, and effectively outlaws gold without outlawing gold.
For those who have set aside extra cash, gold, silver, bartering goods, etc. for when the $hit jumps off, plan accordingly. Probably will help to have a history and an 'understanding' with those you will need to transact with.
Edit: the more I think about it the more sure I am that this is how it will go down in the US. When people start to realize what is going on and start to panic, the first impulse for many will be to head to the bank and withdraw as much cash as possible - i.e., a bank run. But if they pass a law like this (with no warning, just like in Greece) - it doesn't make sense to run the banks because your cash (paper $$) is now worthless. End result: (1) no bank runs, (2) in order to buy things, your money has to be in the bank, and, like Argentina, they will limit the amount you can 'withdraw' or spend to a few hundred a week, (3) you effectively have a new currency - e-dollars or whatever, which may be devalued as necessary, (4) takes care of the gold and silver issue pretty much permanently (at least for legal transactions), and (5) no matter what you do to prepare, you are screwed.
with no warning, just like in Greece
the articles that I have read state that the proposed legislation would be effective January 2011....
Thanks for the correction, I sometimes get a little carried away... and recent events have me a bit twitchy.
Still, as we approach SHTF in the US, I suspect we will see further encouragement for people to go 'credit or debit' rather than cash (many of the people I know already rarely use actual cash), and little warning when and if they make transacting in cash (or anything else) illegal.
-
No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!
lol
"Dubai World may offer creditors 60 cents, after seven years."
I am not sure what the appropriate discount rate to use, but it feels like the claims are worth about 30 cents in the Dollar. Anyone who was "smart" enough to switch into the shorter dated Nakheel Sukuk, and get fully repaid must be feeling "very relieved".
Anybody run across an opnion poll on how French citizens feel about bailing out Greece/kicking them out of the euro zone?
great question.....germans aren't happy, that is well established but it would be interesting to hear about the French populace....
Just a little of wealth trasfer from Europe this time. Nema Problema. Their markets were bought back in the lows of Jan-Mar. And since the Euro is tumbling,and our friends at gs can't tank the market here by much,where are they going to come up with the needed money for their primery dealers to step up to the TBs plate?. Hence a little of profit taking in Europe will do. And for them to think that playing along with BB gonna be a free ride.LMAO.I guess their inteligence agencies should have warned them long time ago when they first started getting into the debt hole. After all,all they have to do is look at the IMF record of playing those games with the undeveloped countries,or may be they thought they are above such games because they are"Europeans". Well,as it turns out,once you delve into debt,you surrender your freedom,white black or yellow;it doesn't matter...
So, something like this happened, per the vague and poorly written NYT article linked above:
GS enters into a derivative trade, or swap, with Greece whereby GS gives Greece cash now in exchange for a 20-year payment stream from earnings off the Greek lottery (one of the examples in the NYT article). GS earnes a few hundred million in fees from setting up the trade. (Query how much GS capital is at-risk here, considering leverage and the possibility of other equity participants).
Greece treats the trade as a "sale" of its lottery earnings, not a "debt" secured by its lottery earnings. Greece gets cash now and does not show a liability on its books for the 20-year payment stream it owes on the swap. (How much did the government of Greece pay to cheat itself, its people, and its Euro "partners"?)
GS later sells the swap to the National Bank of Greece and assists the NBG in setting up a legal entity (let's refer to it as "LOTTO") to hold the swap. GS presumably earns fees in connection with this transaction. LOTTO issues bonds secured by its rights under the swap. NBG holds the bonds.
Then, NBG posts the LOTTO bonds as collateral to borrow from the European Central Bank.
In the end, effectively, the ECB made a loan to Greece backed by Greece's earnings from its national lottery. Presumably the ECB loan secured by the LOTTO bonds is at an extremely low interest rate.
Along the way, GS extracted hundreds of millions, if not more, in fees, interest costs, trading profits, or however else they decide to classify their gains, related to the transactions. The NBG makes some money, too, but it presumably still bears credit risk to Greece vis a vis the LOTTO bonds.
All of these extra costs (the money made by GS, NBG, and their helpers) must be paid by someone; they cannot be magicked into existence.
That someone is going to be either the Greek people, by paying more for the privilege of making this trade than they would have otherwise in a plain vanilla loan transaction. (Compare what Greece is paying on the swap vs. the interest expense associated with the ECB loan against the LOTTO bonds). Or, it will be the NBG and/or the ECB, in the event of a default. (Compare their eventual recoveries on the LOTTO bonds with what NBG paid to purchase the swap from GS and the ECB loaned to the NBG on the LOTTO bonds).
GS is out of the trade, carries no long-term risk, and books its fees and profits (net of any hedging costs incurred to reduce short-term risk during this ride).
What a way to play hide the sausage.
It would be nice if someone knew how to really dig into some of these trades, put the longer term pieces together, and associate some numbers with it.
I bet the Greek people got completely and utterly hairlipped on this trade. It's either that or they change the rules, default on the swap (see some recent Chinese headlines), and the NBG and ECB get waxed. (Bonus question: Who really gets clipped if the NBG and/or ECB take losses?)
Of course, that's what happens when you put yourself behind the 8-ball with too much debt.
We Americans are going through the same machinations ourselves, right now.
Someone is hairlipping us, right now.
Who is tightening the screws on us?
And, from a more philosophical perspective, do we (as a nation, not individually) deserve what we are getting?
[For those seeking maximum pain, consider where the payments are coming from to create the Greek lottery earning payment-stream that was sold/mortgaged. It is being self-funded by the Greek people through what some would call a "stupid tax" or, more aptly, a "tax on people who don't understand math."
Really, sometimes it is a struggle not to let the miserable world drag one into despair.]
Apparently the old gray lady (the NY Times) could ignore it no longer. For European newspapers such as Der Spiegel have blasted the maneuvering of Wall Street bankers to help Greece hide its debt from Brussels. Thus the Times story: Wall St. Helped Greece to Mask Debt Fueling Europe’s Crisis.
Wall Street’s maneuvering to help land Europe deeper in dept is a perfect example of Mayer Amschel Rothschild’s strategy of helping the princes and politicians advance their causes by acquiring a choke-hold on a nation’s finances. Goldman Sachs went to Greece and came up with its self-profiting deals by showing the politicians there how they could use lottery proceeds and airline landing fees, far into future, for money now.
The bankers, led by Goldman’s president, Gary D. Cohn, held out a financing instrument that would have pushed debt from Greece’s health care system far into the future… banks provided cash upfront in return for government payments in the future, with those liabilities then left off the books. Greece, for example, traded away the rights to airport fees and lottery proceeds in years to come.
The European bankers’ union modus operandi is to use dependent politicians as their personal puppets. In return, the politicos get to ride around in limos, with pomp and circumstance, waving to the crowds, and a haircut everyday. It’s a wonderful, glorious life. All the politicians need to do is sell themselves to the bankers.
“As worries over Greece rattle world markets,” the question is why would Goldman and the investment bankers do this, i.e., keep loaning and giving the cash to overextended countries and hiding the debt? The answer is, IMO, so the international bankers could get Greece into a European bankers’ union whereby the bankers could run the major parts of the continent, playing the richer nations against the poorer—enabling the latter to borrow beyond their means and sticking the bill to the former, all on the ruse, “it’s perfectly legal.”
This is Mayer Amschel Rothschild’s legacy... Dr. Carroll Quigley in Tragedy and Hope shows that the core of establishment control is in the financial dynasties of Europe and America who have exercised political control through the formation of international financial combines
But, as W. Cleon Skousen pointed out in The Naked Capitalist, no small group could wield such gigantic power unless people in all walks of life were “in on the take” and willing to knuckle down to the ruthless bosses behind the scenes.
“These monopoly money dynasties learned the elementary lesson that all governments must have sources of revenue from which to borrow in times of emergency,” according to a analysis of The Naked Capitalist. “By providing such funds, the international bankers could make both kings and democratic leaders tremendously subservient to their will.”
Greece is the old British Empire’s India. The Greeks don’t have anything. But Goldman Sachs and the Rothschilds do. Where did the fruits of Greeks’ labors go? Why to Goldman. Here’s a Greek fisherman who works every day of his life, goes out in his boat and works like a slave till nightfall, and just barely makes it. Why is that? The political system is stealing from him and giving it to Goldman Sachs. Look what happened. Here’s Goldman, and here’s the deal. Goldman figured out a way where all the fees and receipts the Greek people are to receive in the future are taken in advance and future debts will be made good by the EU or the IMF. That’s stealing from the people. The people’s grandchildren are going to be in the same boat with that fisherman all their days, because of one word--usury. It’s stealing. It’s why the ancients hated it.
Thank you JR. I will send your comment on.
Those wizards are to nations as are the pimps who hook their prey on heroin. A few of the prey make it out. God help the USA
I get, the Banks the pure evil...
Explain to me why Greece(and others) had to have a monstrous debt in first place?
Replacing whatever new single world reserve currency that can be imagined, with gold, is however not possible without a massive deflation and compression of the world economy. .
moron... he is absolutely wrong
Didn't even know there was any Spanish National Intelligence, let alone an agency.
Another US-only holiday tomorrow while the sausage machine continues to grind away in Europe ... should be an interesting Tuesday open.
There is much talk about Greece and Germany finding common ground. However both governments answer to their people, and those are so far apart on the issues they can't even see each other. Germans want to be divorced from everything Greek, Greeks for their part are ready to burn the country down at the first mention of "austerity."
Chinese New Year, all week.
Well, the Greeks sided with Stalin and the New York banksters. But they also want the germans to bail them out. Not gonna happen. Let the greeks bow down to their money masters in new york; afterall, they fought and died for them. Have a nice day. Pay-back is a bitch.
They will never abolish cash whilst politicians want to receive bribes - sorry, make that campaign donations.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5MJFT2dMyIU&pos=5
One wonders who else received these visits from GS to hide liabilities and push interest payments into the future. Nice fees, if you can get them. The beauty of it all is that GS knows exactly which sovereigns to start shorting. They can pull up a list of all the governments, at all levels, who they "assisted."
Perhaps a more apt metaphor than the vampire squid would be the "Dr. Kevorkian" of the credit markets.
Has anyone got details about Freelotto.com in the USA? I think they are fake. But I still want to confirm. How can a lottery really give away big prizes and euromillions if they don’t get any money selling tickets? I don't understand the logic.
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