The "Sovereign Man" On What To Look For "When The Gold Market Tops"

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Tue, 12/21/2010 - 20:11 | 822622 Johrny Bravo
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Thanks to everyone above who is SOOOO understanding of me...

Goled to $200 Bitchez!

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 20:46 | 822710 Village Idiot
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Johrny's back...

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 21:04 | 822770 Johrny Bravo
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Buried canned ham in the backyard, Bitchez!

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 21:22 | 822820 RockyRacoon
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Oh, Jorny, me boy.  Where hath ye been?

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 21:31 | 822844 cosmictrainwreck
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Johnny, I think it would flow so much better as: "canned ham buried in the backyard, bitchez". A subtle shift....

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 11:20 | 823784 RockyRacoon
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He recycles his ham.  Reburies it after eating it.  Like my dog does.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 17:05 | 826944 MsCreant
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Notice that apple of his too, all chewed, black and grey. What does that smell like?

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 01:55 | 823298 Real Estate Geek
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Speaking of nice boys, NORAD has a website for tracking Santa.  The kids seem to enjoy it -http://www.noradsanta.org/en/index.html

Too bad they couldn't track a few 767s.

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 21:04 | 822766 e_goldstein
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f/u baghdad bob ;-)

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 18:18 | 822322 Andy_Jackson_Jihad
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I will not look for the price in Gold in USD to get outrageos then decline to get out.  I will only look for the relative purchasing power of gold to decline.

That will be the time to trade it for stock, a gun, pair of russian nymphomaniac gymnast twins with open minds to marry etc.  There is a good possibility the nominal value of gold will keep rising after that point.

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 19:30 | 822527 XPolemic
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pair of russian nymphomaniac gymnast twins with open minds to marry

Best purchase suggestion, ever.

I wonder how many ounces there are to the russian-nymphomaniac-gymnast-pair.

 

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 20:09 | 822611 Village Idiot
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I'll second as best purchase.  Christmas?

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 21:23 | 822826 RockyRacoon
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Looks like your fate is to live in Utah.  The Mormons would welcome your bigamy -- and your gold. 

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 21:54 | 822904 Andy_Jackson_Jihad
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So will the corrupt local pols so I can live wherever I want.  Bigamy is not the same as marrying two hot ass russian sisters.  Anything is OK if they are hot enough and gymnastic enough and nympho enough.

So sayeth Jesus, Moses, Allah and Joe Smith

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 03:19 | 823374 trav7777
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Russian girls are fucking ruthless mercenaries...you been warned.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 12:15 | 823935 RockyRacoon
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Russian girls are fucking ruthless mercenaries...

The operative word being the modifier of "ruthless".

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 21:36 | 822854 MsCreant
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pair of russian nymphomaniac gymnast twins

Hope you are up to it.

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 21:48 | 822896 Kali
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Nuttin a viagra/meth/ecstasy cocktail can't fix

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 22:11 | 822941 Village Idiot
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I was thinking 15 minutes with one and a reach for the remote.

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 22:43 | 823012 Oh regional Indian
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ooooohhhh.... ouch......

man-hood is dying. woman-hood is dying too.

Narrow hips and limp dicks cannot make babies anymore.

Such is where we are Kali. It's your hour...

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/06/17/death-of-shame-death-of-nobil...

 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 00:49 | 823238 Kali
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Told ya I was coming!  Yes.  And when they do manage to have children, 1%(!) are born with autism now, and, probably still rising.  Think about that.  1 in 100.  Average lifetime cost for child with autism = $3.5 million

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 03:21 | 823378 trav7777
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did they figure out yet that old man + old woman = less viable offspring?

I mean there's a goddamned reason women are so fertile from 13-27 and it goes down after that...nature has plans which do not include a career

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 18:19 | 822324 Worker Bee
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Yea right..what people are starting to wake up? The same ones trampling eachother for ipads at wal-mart? 300 million people in the states and maybe 10% of the cattle out there have any clue about gold except that they can overpay for gold plated cables for their new 10000 in. 3d TEEVVEEEE.

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 18:21 | 822335 drink or die
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The same people that put down $0 to buy a $500K house with a $50K a year income, and then took out an equity loan to buy a boat?

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 21:25 | 822828 RockyRacoon
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Wham!  That one will leave a mark.

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 18:20 | 822333 bingaling
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I think he is right about how to determine the top . But I think his timing may be off . The internet can take gold viral in 12 months with a good hit of inflation or the death of a common paper currency.

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 19:51 | 822576 Diogenes
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90% of the population never invests in ANYTHING.To them, money is for spending. They can see spending it on a TV or a boat but to spend it on stocks, bonds, mutual funds or gold is just stupid. Where's the fun in that?

So don't worry about all the Walmart shoppers suddenly buying gold.

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 20:06 | 822609 barkster
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At the top of the internet craze I recall a twenty-something year old in our IT department trading like mad every day and sending out stock tips by email to other employees. Looking back, that was certainly my signal. I was not in though because I thought the market was overvalued at Dow 4000.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 02:22 | 823337 Long Strange Trip
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I don't think he mentioned a specific timeline - only to look out for gold going main stream where access to physical gold is in ATM's across the country, etc.  Personally,you give the people out there too much credit that they'd actually stop watching the TV and spend the time to understand how f*cked the financial system is and buy gold. Things going viral on the internet have the depth and substance of something like this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEvNS5TzvwM&feature=related

Methinks most of the people won't know what the hell is going on until it's too late and all financial paper is burning.

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 18:21 | 822336 koeleköpke
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as always the smart ones already have covered their positions since long. year after year they had good returns on their physical holdings. what will bring the near future ? more debt, more paper, much more peptalk and the smart ones are still bying bars and coins in gold and silver.

 

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 18:23 | 822338 Flore
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FOFOA bitchez

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 18:39 | 822388 Drag Racer
Tue, 12/21/2010 - 18:42 | 822401 DoChenRollingBearing
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+ $55,000

fofoa.blogspot.com

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 19:05 | 822469 traderjoe
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I've been thinking about the $55k argument since I received my order for 1/4 ounce coins. These relatively small coins are currently worth $375 or so. They are pretty small (Australian Kangaroos). I no longer think $55k is possible/relevant, as it would make this small coin worth $10k. I'm not sure someone could get their minds around that reality as they looked at the coin. $1k per coin, sure. $2k, maybe. 

Of course, I understand why they make that 'prediction' as the price of everything else would be completely different as well. In some ways, my thinking makes me more bullish on the possibilities for silver, as likely silver would close the ratio gap first before gold really shot to the moon. 

Just thinkin' out loud...

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 19:29 | 822528 Arius
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dont think too much...LOL

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 19:34 | 822536 XPolemic
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I'm with you. Gold has recently hit it's inflation adjusted price (my calc, based on an average 6% risk free rate of return), and will most probably move in lock step with USD devaluation.

Silver on the other hand is still 200 bucks away from it's inflation adjusted price (by the same measure). Might get me some more PAMP today. :)

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 02:00 | 823306 Sun Tsu
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Silver is worth $24.

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 21:02 | 822764 Simon Endean
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Can't see how it would ever get to $55k.  Right now, those small coins aren't worth someone killing you to take it.  At $1,000, maybe.  Get much above that, and it moves from possible, to probable, to certain.  Likewise, the odds of it being "lost in transfer" or some other such mishap rise accordingly.

 

Point being, the headaches involved with safekeeping it will probably effectively cap its worth well before anything approaching $55K.

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 21:28 | 822834 RockyRacoon
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Heard the same arguments about it reaching $500, $750, and $1,000.

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 22:19 | 822957 Imminent Crucible
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Simon is making a common error.  He's thinking of gold reaching $55k while $55k will still buy what it buys today.  That's why it seems improbable to him.

Gold could well reach $55k an ounce, and when it does, you won't be able to buy a decent used car for $50k.  It's like this, Simon; gold won't be going to $55k because it suddenly becomes tremendously valuable.  It will be because the dollar becomes tremendously worthless.

Gold didn't go to $55k in Zimbabwe dollars.  It went to septillions of Zim dollars, just before Gideon Gono canceled the Zim dollar.

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 23:55 | 822959 Imminent Crucible
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quadruplicate post.  oops.

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 23:55 | 822975 Imminent Crucible
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*

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 23:54 | 823166 Imminent Crucible
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*

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 22:15 | 822936 DoChenRollingBearing
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dupe post sorry!

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 22:12 | 822944 DoChenRollingBearing
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I stumbled into FOFOA somewhat over a year ago.  When I saw him making his case for $55k, I thought wow this guy's an extremist!  But I've always had a place inside me for (non-violent) extremists so I gave him a read.

And then I got hooked.  Hey, I don't know what's going to happen!  But, there's too BS in the system and it looks like a lot of people are going to get fried...

As ZH-er nuinut (who knows more than I do and is more articulate) explains, the BIG price rise will happen when paper gold price diverges from the physical gold price.

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 22:39 | 823005 goldsaver
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Perhaps. But what is a 1 carat diamond "worth"? How big is a 1 carat diamond? How about a 10 carat diamond? 

I think there will be those willing to pay $50K an ounce (FRNs) for gold. Specially when there is no loose physical to be had. Of course, that will just make it more likely that the .gov would confiscate it, sorry, voluntarily recall it, for National Security purposes.

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 23:32 | 823110 traderjoe
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The diamond is an interesting counter-point. I would never pay that much for one, but obviously some people do. 

I think what is more likely is a massive bifurcation of prices in goods - tangible and useful v. discretionary and costly. As another poster on another thread said, discretionary indebted and costly items like boats, fancy cars, etc. will be driven down in value. An ounce of gold might be able to buy you a $20k bass boat. 

On the other hand, it won't be able to buy you $20k in gas, oil, or food. But again, who knows what the relative prices will be like at that time. I just can't imagine someone selling a year's worth of gas for one small coin. I'm a bear on the fiat currencies, but I'm not a raging bull at $55k/ounce (assuming relative prices stay the same as today). I get the one gold coin for 2 nice men's suits argument. But if all of a sudden a gold coin buys 20 nice suits, then I think you might have a backlash against gold. I personally want it to be a store of wealth and be of value in the future, but I'm not trying to 'profit' from owning it. 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 01:16 | 823256 Ludwig Van
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Throughout history, one oz. AU buys *one* nice suit.

(Tired of seeing the ratio misquoted here; but worse, appalled at implied nice-suit inflation.)

 

 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 12:35 | 823982 RockyRacoon
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A word about the "suit analogy".   It was true some time back when labor was not priced the way it is now.  The labor in making a suit was mostly human labor on a sewing machine.  Today it is labor using highly-automated equipment.  The labor cost is not so much a factor now.  Another view is the early automobile business.   A nice 1930s auto with multiple carbs took a bit of labor by a mechanic to keep it tuned and running optimally.  Now that work is done by smart chips in the car using fuel injection, etc.  So, the labor component is removed to a large degree.  It is labor that has become the expensive component of the price of goods.   It was not always so.  The suit/car analogy has transformed into the situation in which we are able to obtain a better product (more sturdy or cheaper in the suit, more reliable in the car) but the relative cost is the same.  You get an extra pair of pants with the suit, and you get more bells/whistles on the car. It's some of the thinking of the BLS when they use "hedonic adjustments" to the inflation of certain items.  There is some validity to it but not when it is used primarily to make inflation look "tame".

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 02:53 | 823360 DamnDirtyApe
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"Freegold" is a pet theory that will never happen. 

FOFOA holds mainly gold and desperately wants it to go ballistic so he can cash out and get rich. He is no dufferent than everyone else who buys equities, commodities, real estate etc.

 

Given two scenarios :

A) Gold and Silver form a nice bubble (say 4k for Gold), which eventually pops, and life moves on to the next fiat rigged system

vs

B) The "freegold" dream where the world magically permanently transforms into a utopian free market open system of 55k gold that crosses all boundaries and economies and all borders and exists outside of the fiat system.

 

... well I'll bet on scenario A as being 99.99% more likely.

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