S&P 400 - The Technical Case

Tyler Durden's picture

While we have recently seen various fundamentally driven predictions for the S&P going back to its 1994 level of ~400 (most recently from Albert Edwards and Russell Napier), few charts predict a comparable major retracement in the key equity index. And while it is not quite a variant of the Kondratieff Wave chart familiar to most, this chart courtesy of Sean Corrigan shows the historical 33 year peak to trough frequency of the S&P, emphasizing the cyclical periodicity observed in market cycles. The chart predicts the next 33 year low to occur some time in late 2015, taking the S&P to the proverbial 400 level. As Corrigan observes: "A third, post-94 Bubble-era decline of -50% would unwind all of that move and half the log rise of the Great Bull Market (something the '49-'68 move did) and return to both the mid-1960's highs and Fib retrace the whole post - WWII move. Doing this by late 2015 would preserve the 33 year span."

And some other just as illustrative (and cautionary) charts:


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Dejean Splicer's picture

One must respect the "generational low". He just died for gods sake. Have some respect!

razorthin's picture

that was doug kass. guess he meant a generation of mosquitos

??'s picture

and Doug Kass too? I always liked him, like a member of the finanical rat pack.  I think he lived in Palm Beach not far from what's his face.. ahhh whatever  they're dropping like flys and I'm still mourning Louis Rukeyser.


razorthin's picture

no, doug didn't die.  but he coined the, "generational low" on crudlow

??'s picture

you shouldn't start rumors like that but I'm glad he's okay.

Spirit Of Truth's picture

The "Haines Bottom" is dead (literally).  The "Apocalypse Wave" may come next: 


TruthInSunshine's picture

Prepare for game over for global economy (not because it's a U.N. Report or because it's being widely reported by Reuters, AP and every other major wire service, but because the velocity is there on a psychological level).

For anyone thinking the woes of the U.S. and Eurozone will be net accretive to the economic prosperity of the BRIC nations or any others, think again, too.

We're entering a global black hole:


Ted K's picture

This is the institution headed by the corrupt Ban Ki Moon?? The same guy who couldn't stop the Cholera outbreak in Haiti???  The guy walking around the halls of the U.N. going "Kaaawweeeeaaaa da best!!!!  Kaaaawwweeeaaaa da best!!!!"

Put me down an extra 5 zillion long the S&P 500 would you Jeeves???

Smiddywesson's picture

Agreed. Interestingly enough, a friend of mine who is a very smart guy has mocked me for predicting China was a superbubble that would shatter the world's economy, precisely because it was the MSM's central hope for a global recovery.  Without the hordes of middle class Chinese consumers everyone has crowed about, the future becomes very clear.  Despite all my talk about the empty cities, the lack of jobs, incredible overcapacity, the tightening up of Internet access, repression of journalists, and ridiculous growth claims while their energy usage crashed, he just laughed at me.

It's just an anecdote, but he isn't laughing anymore.  If such a stalwart of the party line is beginning to see the light, the end can't be far away.

DosZap's picture

Have a link where you do not have to join the Google Gestapo?.

Between them and Facebook, Seig Heil.

baby_BLYTHE's picture

Great presentation. I send that one out anytime someone asks me 'where is the economy headed?'

Temporalist's picture

I shared that here recently too TIS.  Here is another:

BOJ Calls Japan Fiscal State 'Very Serious'



Orly's picture

Doug Kass is not dead.

Y'all stop this nonsense.  It's disgusting.

??'s picture

don't look at me, razorthing started the rumor - if only Louis was still with us

Dejean Splicer's picture

Christ sakes, relax Orly. So DK coined it but MH drove the point home. We will never see 666 again. Period!

Carnegie_IB's picture

We will never see 667 again. Period!

--captain obvious



disabledvet's picture

"but you might see 666." Captain Obvious said, quietly...sternly...with nerves of steel.

Orly's picture

Look, y'all: I realise that people are pissed and that the way things should work needs to be taken back from those who have looted from us...

And I'm not at all against humour...


Try to keep in mind that the people we write about and completely disagree with- to a vengeance- all have family and friends who read this stuff and they are not guilty of what the target of our disdain has done.  I mean, it's one thing to diss someone for their views and to say, not exactly in so many words, how you disagree with them.  But to carry on as though someone has died who hasn't really passed away...well, that's just too much.

If my daughter read that I was dead before I was even dead, I can't think about how I would feel in that regard; how she would feel.

I do understand that we need to vent and to dispose of the rats who are in control but do please try to consider what you're writing before you write it and whom it may affect before it is submitted.

Sorry to be a bummer on parade but saying Doug Kass is dead is not at all funny to his wife and family.  I was dismayed hearing those words.  Kass is one of the good guys.

Please try to keep that in mind.

Orly's picture

Just think about it before you post, M. Splicer.

That's all I ask.


mkkby's picture

Orly, don't be so naive.  These TV talking heads CRAVE attention, and willingly put up with the good and bad publicity to get their fix.  Their families know that, and if they suffer, it is their celebrity parent who caused it.

There is no comparison to your daughter at all.  Celebrity families grow a thick skin and deaf ears.

traderjoe's picture

One of the good guys? I respectfully disagree. I call "them" all the money-changers. People that skim off the productivity of others, in part by perpetuating a regime of inflation - which silently robs the wealth of the savers and the producers. If we did not have inflation, savers would not need to chase returns to preserve their wealth. Deflation is the natural order of things, as productivity reduces costs.

So the money-changers create a system of inflation to benefit from it in several ways, one of which is to earn fees from savers who need to try to preserve their wealth from the very system the money changers have created.

Any participation in the Ponzi is complicency in the Ponzi.

Orly's picture

I can respect that.  You have a difference of opinion.

At least you didn't inform his wife and children over a financial blog, incorrectly and as a joke, that their daddy was dead.

That's just not cool.

Freddie's picture

Dude - I would not worry about it.  What you read hear will be tame to the sh*t that will go down when things start falling apart faster in the USA. The wheels are already in motion.  

I love the POS lib scum here who voted for the islamic with their "system falls apart fantasy" and they have a little gold and PM stashed away.   These lib pu**ies will be handing it over when the first gang shows up and murders them anyway. They voted for Zimbabwe.

Vic Vinegar's picture

Cognitive Dissonance asked this week why we read Zero Hedge.  I came here for news coverage by Tyler and friends and I stay for hilarious and bizzare comments like this one.  LOL!

Ivar Kreuger's picture

Holy shit.

I didn't know we get to vote on monetary policy.


You talk about voting like it matters.

That is how I know you are a dumbass.

Re-Discovery's picture

Haines Bottom.  Now there is something no one but Mrs. Haines should see.

(Everybody and their brother had tributes to him this week.  Consider this post mine.)

I think I need to buy a gun's picture

s p 400 is not happening....the dow will hyperinflate and go to 36000 before it goes back to 5000.....there is no way we are going back down in 50 years the dow will be 100000. I'm just waiting for the big gold revaluation......because it appears its coming overnight....

DosZap's picture


Surpise,surprise, it will be revalued to $500.00oz.

imsaul0968's picture

We all know this SHOULD happen but here's why it won't: The govt saved us in 2009 from going down to 400 which is where the market likely would have headed. Now the fed has spent 2.5 trillion to prop up asset prices. Does anyone really think tricky Ben would allow us to waste all that money only to see the market go back to where it was headed anyway? Anyone betting on that outcome is holding a lottery ticket. The better bet is that we and other countries go all in and try to inflate our way out of debt so gold going to 3000 at least seems like a much smarter bet. If Bennie ever gets the kind of inflation he wants, the add to GDP will allow us to inflate that pesky debt away...gold gold gold, bet with the central banks, they seem to know what they are forced to do will be what benefits gold the most

Carnegie_IB's picture

so why did the govt not save the market from the 2008 drop? the continued belief they will prevent such a decline actually increases the likelihood that it does in fact happen.

traderjoe's picture

How do we know that it wasn't orchestrated? The flash crash on the day of the Fed audit debate, the TARP rejection drop, etc. If it is manipulated on the upside, likely on the downside too...

disabledvet's picture

good question.  one seldom asked in these here parts.

rocker's picture

Wow 'Imsaul' .  Dude.  Do you realize you just blew off EWI's Robert (Preacher) Prechter's forecast too. After all, his philosophy is that the FED doesn't matter. He has preached that for 3 years telling people to short the markets. Selling his ponzi scheme forecast on everything you need to fail as a investor. So this is a dilemma. Who's right. Prechter strikes out on his third year to short the markets. Hmmm. Technical Case @400, which I think we were going to too. Or the FED who does matter, (wrong answer Robert), and is hell bent on destroying the dollar in order to maintain the status quo. Would Ben let it all go to waste? That does not seem to be the question. Ben belongs to the Cartel. Is it his decision? I don't think so. The PDs, CBs, and TPTB know this part. Would TPTB take all that money back? Maybe, that is what they have done in the past. What I do know is Gold and PM's are real. I'll take the Hard Money bet. It has been real for generations.       

Carnegie_IB's picture

you bet TPTB will bury the tape. To take 99% of the money you have to do what only 1% would do. Too much on the table not to take it in order to rinse and repeat.

As for Prechter, 3 years is nothing in the scheme of things. He has riden the March 2009 turn up and it is doubtful he is not a one of the best in our time.

rocker's picture

@ Carnegie.  'Riding the rise since 2009' was fairly easy. The problem is, he has been dead money since. He lost big bucks telling people to short 3 times in the last 3 years. If his wave principal in so reliable as he claims. Why didn't it work for him then. My answer. Wave principals can work momentarily. But can not forecast a reliable trend within a 3 year period. That is something he has proven. His forecast have Failed. They are a great historical thesis. But that is looking backwards. Think of all the money one could have made betting against him. Look at short interest. He never says anything about the herd mentality of shorts. Goldman Sachs knows how to burn shorts. That's why they trade perfect 89 of 90 days. They go against the EW herd. I'm not defending the Squid. Actually I wish the SEC would demolish GS. Giving them bank status is they death blow for honest investors who trade on principal and sound fundamentals. But that's what GS's special sauce software can do. Manipulate and trade against you because they know where every bet is. Reality is, if you were not long as say, Marc Faber said. You lost money and many opportunities to gain against the devaluation of the dollar. Which is another bad call by Robert. He has had a long dollar forecast for the past years too. LMAO on that call too. What a shithead to make that call. All these things can turn next week. But that does not make Robert right after so many bad years. A broken clock is right 2x every day. Eh.

Al Gorerhythm's picture

The govt hasn't saved a fucking thing. Fuck me! What's the purchasing power of a point of the SP or any miserable fucking other index or share when converted into funnimunny? What's your measuring stick for value? A stupid fucking blip on a stupid fucking index that measures a stupid fucking electronic credit to your stupid fucking digital stupid fucking imaginary account? 

The govt saved us!? Thanks a fucking lot you dullards.

cosmictrainwreck's picture

as has probably already been alluded to.... these chartists are on LSD, man. whatever happened to the basic tenent: "future outcomes not contingent on prior returns"? in other words, this time it really is diff., with a capital "D". NEVER in the history of any market anywhere have such bullshit propping up, lying, cheating & stealing by those in power, and etc., ad nauseum, occurred. The so-called "historical" "cyclic" charts are just that.... past tense. Applied up until 2007-ish. Hence, the charts "predict" what it [it= a "normal market] would have turned out to be, had not the Fed & Wall Skreet hijacked the whole show. Unfortunately, they did. Ergo, we will never know what "woulda happened". Hence, their "predictions" are as good as mine = throw a dart at the dartboard.

OldPhart's picture

You can only inflate debt away when you don't keep constantly adding to it.  What we will see is successive additions to debt at higher interest. 

cxl9's picture

Good point. Inflating away the debt can only occur if the currency is being diluted faster than new debt is being accumulated. How can we take a crack at determining which one is happening? One crude method might be to measure the amount of debt in ounces of gold. As the currency is diluted, the price of gold goes up. Is gold price increasing (dollar value decreasing) more rapidly than debt is accumulating? Some quick calculations using figures from U.S. Treasury "debt to the penny" and historical London gold fixing prices:

date  ... debt in toz. of gold (mm)

12/31/2009 ... 11,321

03/31/2010 ... 11,451

06/30/2010 ... 10,614

09/30/2010 ... 10,376

12/31/2010 ... 9,979

03/31/2011 ... 9,917

05/26/2011 ... 9,447

Debt expressed in ounces of gold has been declining for some time. It would be interesting to look at a more complete series. In June 2002 debt/gold was 21,372. I wonder where it peaked and began its decline (I have my suspicions...)

By this crude measure, the currency is being diluted more rapidly than new debt is being accumulated, which suggests that the attempt to "inflate away" the debt is having some success.


Temporalist's picture

"Success" as in someone's attempt to commit suicide was "successful?"