This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
S&P 400 - The Technical Case
While we have recently seen various fundamentally driven predictions for the S&P going back to its 1994 level of ~400 (most recently from Albert Edwards and Russell Napier), few charts predict a comparable major retracement in the key equity index. And while it is not quite a variant of the Kondratieff Wave chart familiar to most, this chart courtesy of Sean Corrigan shows the historical 33 year peak to trough frequency of the S&P, emphasizing the cyclical periodicity observed in market cycles. The chart predicts the next 33 year low to occur some time in late 2015, taking the S&P to the proverbial 400 level. As Corrigan observes: "A third, post-94 Bubble-era decline of -50% would unwind all of that move and half the log rise of the Great Bull Market (something the '49-'68 move did) and return to both the mid-1960's highs and Fib retrace the whole post - WWII move. Doing this by late 2015 would preserve the 33 year span."
And some other just as illustrative (and cautionary) charts:
»
- 24167 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
One must respect the "generational low". He just died for gods sake. Have some respect!
that was doug kass. guess he meant a generation of mosquitos
Hint: Haines Bottom.
~O~
and Doug Kass too? I always liked him, like a member of the finanical rat pack. I think he lived in Palm Beach not far from what's his face.. ahhh whatever they're dropping like flys and I'm still mourning Louis Rukeyser.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MyToTwag34
no, doug didn't die. but he coined the, "generational low" on crudlow
you shouldn't start rumors like that but I'm glad he's okay.
The "Haines Bottom" is dead (literally). The "Apocalypse Wave" may come next:
http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2011/05/major-planetary-alignment-t...
Prepare for game over for global economy (not because it's a U.N. Report or because it's being widely reported by Reuters, AP and every other major wire service, but because the velocity is there on a psychological level).
For anyone thinking the woes of the U.S. and Eurozone will be net accretive to the economic prosperity of the BRIC nations or any others, think again, too.
We're entering a global black hole:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/25/us-economy-un-idUSTRE74O6EI201...
This is the institution headed by the corrupt Ban Ki Moon?? The same guy who couldn't stop the Cholera outbreak in Haiti??? The guy walking around the halls of the U.N. going "Kaaawweeeeaaaa da best!!!! Kaaaawwweeeaaaa da best!!!!"
Put me down an extra 5 zillion long the S&P 500 would you Jeeves???
Agreed. Interestingly enough, a friend of mine who is a very smart guy has mocked me for predicting China was a superbubble that would shatter the world's economy, precisely because it was the MSM's central hope for a global recovery. Without the hordes of middle class Chinese consumers everyone has crowed about, the future becomes very clear. Despite all my talk about the empty cities, the lack of jobs, incredible overcapacity, the tightening up of Internet access, repression of journalists, and ridiculous growth claims while their energy usage crashed, he just laughed at me.
It's just an anecdote, but he isn't laughing anymore. If such a stalwart of the party line is beginning to see the light, the end can't be far away.
have your friend watch this.
Marc Faber tells it like it is.
Mirror, Mirror on the Wall, When is the Next AIG to Fall?
Have a link where you do not have to join the Google Gestapo?.
Between them and Facebook, Seig Heil.
Great presentation. I send that one out anytime someone asks me 'where is the economy headed?'
I shared that here recently too TIS. Here is another:
BOJ Calls Japan Fiscal State 'Very Serious'http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230406650457635086332821696...
Doug Kass is not dead.
Y'all stop this nonsense. It's disgusting.
don't look at me, razorthing started the rumor - if only Louis was still with us
Christ sakes, relax Orly. So DK coined it but MH drove the point home. We will never see 666 again. Period!
--captain obvious
"but you might see 666." Captain Obvious said, quietly...sternly...with nerves of steel.
Look, y'all: I realise that people are pissed and that the way things should work needs to be taken back from those who have looted from us...
And I'm not at all against humour...
But...
Try to keep in mind that the people we write about and completely disagree with- to a vengeance- all have family and friends who read this stuff and they are not guilty of what the target of our disdain has done. I mean, it's one thing to diss someone for their views and to say, not exactly in so many words, how you disagree with them. But to carry on as though someone has died who hasn't really passed away...well, that's just too much.
If my daughter read that I was dead before I was even dead, I can't think about how I would feel in that regard; how she would feel.
I do understand that we need to vent and to dispose of the rats who are in control but do please try to consider what you're writing before you write it and whom it may affect before it is submitted.
Sorry to be a bummer on parade but saying Doug Kass is dead is not at all funny to his wife and family. I was dismayed hearing those words. Kass is one of the good guys.
Please try to keep that in mind.
r u hi?
Just think about it before you post, M. Splicer.
That's all I ask.
Orly, don't be so naive. These TV talking heads CRAVE attention, and willingly put up with the good and bad publicity to get their fix. Their families know that, and if they suffer, it is their celebrity parent who caused it.
There is no comparison to your daughter at all. Celebrity families grow a thick skin and deaf ears.
One of the good guys? I respectfully disagree. I call "them" all the money-changers. People that skim off the productivity of others, in part by perpetuating a regime of inflation - which silently robs the wealth of the savers and the producers. If we did not have inflation, savers would not need to chase returns to preserve their wealth. Deflation is the natural order of things, as productivity reduces costs.
So the money-changers create a system of inflation to benefit from it in several ways, one of which is to earn fees from savers who need to try to preserve their wealth from the very system the money changers have created.
Any participation in the Ponzi is complicency in the Ponzi.
I can respect that. You have a difference of opinion.
At least you didn't inform his wife and children over a financial blog, incorrectly and as a joke, that their daddy was dead.
That's just not cool.
Dude - I would not worry about it. What you read hear will be tame to the sh*t that will go down when things start falling apart faster in the USA. The wheels are already in motion.
I love the POS lib scum here who voted for the islamic with their "system falls apart fantasy" and they have a little gold and PM stashed away. These lib pu**ies will be handing it over when the first gang shows up and murders them anyway. They voted for Zimbabwe.
Cognitive Dissonance asked this week why we read Zero Hedge. I came here for news coverage by Tyler and friends and I stay for hilarious and bizzare comments like this one. LOL!
Holy shit.
I didn't know we get to vote on monetary policy.
/sac
You talk about voting like it matters.
That is how I know you are a dumbass.
Orly, you are correct.
Thanks.
Haines Bottom. Now there is something no one but Mrs. Haines should see.
(Everybody and their brother had tributes to him this week. Consider this post mine.)
s p 400 is not happening....the dow will hyperinflate and go to 36000 before it goes back to 5000.....there is no way we are going back down in 50 years the dow will be 100000. I'm just waiting for the big gold revaluation......because it appears its coming overnight....
I'll take the under in that trade.
Yeah,
Surpise,surprise, it will be revalued to $500.00oz.
We all know this SHOULD happen but here's why it won't: The govt saved us in 2009 from going down to 400 which is where the market likely would have headed. Now the fed has spent 2.5 trillion to prop up asset prices. Does anyone really think tricky Ben would allow us to waste all that money only to see the market go back to where it was headed anyway? Anyone betting on that outcome is holding a lottery ticket. The better bet is that we and other countries go all in and try to inflate our way out of debt so gold going to 3000 at least seems like a much smarter bet. If Bennie ever gets the kind of inflation he wants, the add to GDP will allow us to inflate that pesky debt away...gold gold gold, bet with the central banks, they seem to know what they are forced to do will be what benefits gold the most
so why did the govt not save the market from the 2008 drop? the continued belief they will prevent such a decline actually increases the likelihood that it does in fact happen.
How do we know that it wasn't orchestrated? The flash crash on the day of the Fed audit debate, the TARP rejection drop, etc. If it is manipulated on the upside, likely on the downside too...
good question. one seldom asked in these here parts.
Wow 'Imsaul' . Dude. Do you realize you just blew off EWI's Robert (Preacher) Prechter's forecast too. After all, his philosophy is that the FED doesn't matter. He has preached that for 3 years telling people to short the markets. Selling his ponzi scheme forecast on everything you need to fail as a investor. So this is a dilemma. Who's right. Prechter strikes out on his third year to short the markets. Hmmm. Technical Case @400, which I think we were going to too. Or the FED who does matter, (wrong answer Robert), and is hell bent on destroying the dollar in order to maintain the status quo. Would Ben let it all go to waste? That does not seem to be the question. Ben belongs to the Cartel. Is it his decision? I don't think so. The PDs, CBs, and TPTB know this part. Would TPTB take all that money back? Maybe, that is what they have done in the past. What I do know is Gold and PM's are real. I'll take the Hard Money bet. It has been real for generations.
you bet TPTB will bury the tape. To take 99% of the money you have to do what only 1% would do. Too much on the table not to take it in order to rinse and repeat.
As for Prechter, 3 years is nothing in the scheme of things. He has riden the March 2009 turn up and it is doubtful he is not a one of the best in our time.
Confirmed, and seconded.
@ Carnegie. 'Riding the rise since 2009' was fairly easy. The problem is, he has been dead money since. He lost big bucks telling people to short 3 times in the last 3 years. If his wave principal in so reliable as he claims. Why didn't it work for him then. My answer. Wave principals can work momentarily. But can not forecast a reliable trend within a 3 year period. That is something he has proven. His forecast have Failed. They are a great historical thesis. But that is looking backwards. Think of all the money one could have made betting against him. Look at short interest. He never says anything about the herd mentality of shorts. Goldman Sachs knows how to burn shorts. That's why they trade perfect 89 of 90 days. They go against the EW herd. I'm not defending the Squid. Actually I wish the SEC would demolish GS. Giving them bank status is they death blow for honest investors who trade on principal and sound fundamentals. But that's what GS's special sauce software can do. Manipulate and trade against you because they know where every bet is. Reality is, if you were not long as say, Marc Faber said. You lost money and many opportunities to gain against the devaluation of the dollar. Which is another bad call by Robert. He has had a long dollar forecast for the past years too. LMAO on that call too. What a shithead to make that call. All these things can turn next week. But that does not make Robert right after so many bad years. A broken clock is right 2x every day. Eh.
The govt hasn't saved a fucking thing. Fuck me! What's the purchasing power of a point of the SP or any miserable fucking other index or share when converted into funnimunny? What's your measuring stick for value? A stupid fucking blip on a stupid fucking index that measures a stupid fucking electronic credit to your stupid fucking digital stupid fucking imaginary account?
The govt saved us!? Thanks a fucking lot you dullards.
There's two (so far).
bizarre phenomenon, ain't it? lulz
Yeah. Sighz.
as has probably already been alluded to.... these chartists are on LSD, man. whatever happened to the basic tenent: "future outcomes not contingent on prior returns"? in other words, this time it really is diff., with a capital "D". NEVER in the history of any market anywhere have such bullshit propping up, lying, cheating & stealing by those in power, and etc., ad nauseum, occurred. The so-called "historical" "cyclic" charts are just that.... past tense. Applied up until 2007-ish. Hence, the charts "predict" what it [it= a "normal market] would have turned out to be, had not the Fed & Wall Skreet hijacked the whole show. Unfortunately, they did. Ergo, we will never know what "woulda happened". Hence, their "predictions" are as good as mine = throw a dart at the dartboard.
You can only inflate debt away when you don't keep constantly adding to it. What we will see is successive additions to debt at higher interest.
Good point. Inflating away the debt can only occur if the currency is being diluted faster than new debt is being accumulated. How can we take a crack at determining which one is happening? One crude method might be to measure the amount of debt in ounces of gold. As the currency is diluted, the price of gold goes up. Is gold price increasing (dollar value decreasing) more rapidly than debt is accumulating? Some quick calculations using figures from U.S. Treasury "debt to the penny" and historical London gold fixing prices:
date ... debt in toz. of gold (mm)
12/31/2009 ... 11,321
03/31/2010 ... 11,451
06/30/2010 ... 10,614
09/30/2010 ... 10,376
12/31/2010 ... 9,979
03/31/2011 ... 9,917
05/26/2011 ... 9,447
Debt expressed in ounces of gold has been declining for some time. It would be interesting to look at a more complete series. In June 2002 debt/gold was 21,372. I wonder where it peaked and began its decline (I have my suspicions...)
By this crude measure, the currency is being diluted more rapidly than new debt is being accumulated, which suggests that the attempt to "inflate away" the debt is having some success.
"Success" as in someone's attempt to commit suicide was "successful?"
and don't forget we are sorting out corruption in FIFA first and then we are going to sort out the banksters... so every thing is gonna be just fine....
Absolutely. There is only one way out of this, gold. You can't devalue a currency when there is nothing to devalue against. All currencies have to be devalued together, and the way to do that is to inflate the value of something else in relation to those currencies. That will be gold. We are going on a gold standard when the powers that be have sucked the world dry of available gold. Then the debt that soverign nations and the big banks owe will be secondary to the value of the asset they hold. Those paper debts, although massive, will finally be payable and they can unwind all the derivative transactions that threaten their power.
Buy gold. It is not a bubble. When bubbles are popped, like gold, silver and oil were popped, they should'nt recover immediately. That is not the price action of a bubble, that is price action that tells you something is going on behind the scenes. The game is changing and historical prices are no longer relevant.
Why not buy silver? Gold held up better during the May attack on markets. The price action is stronger, the trend in gold is longer, and most of all, the central banks are not acquiring oil and silver. We are unlikely to be placed on a silver standard, therefore, buy gold.
While I agree with you 100% on the Pm's issue........esp Gold, and where we are headed.
I find this not true in my opinion,
Yes you can, you can devalue it to Zero, with a NO confidence vote for the people who hold it.
I hold stocks and bonds. But, everyone here knows that I am a big fan of gold. One of the reasons why is just this kind of possibilty: a stock market collapse.
I have always been a big fan of diversification. ZH-er Gully Foyle had an observation that agility is important too.
Diversification and agility will help each of us protect our families.
@DoChenRollingBearing
At this stage of the game, the best diversifiicaiton is having marketable job skills or services or products to sell/trade/barter. Good luck to anybody who thinks they can ride out this storm with the proper "investments" except for productive assets.
Agreed, agility may not help when the boom is lowered. The May attack on silver happend over the weekend. The game appears to be to conduct their operations in foreign markets when all other markets are closed, and then watch the panic spread prior to the NY open. Option hedges could limit risk, but stops will be useless. They might have to stop trading if there is a panic and it could be days before you could exit a position, almost like being locked in a limit down position in futures. All paper has counter party risk when we are discussing failure of the financial system. If Ben and his buddies have their way, there won't be any counter party risk, or failure of the financial system. All we will have is sheep lining up to convert their paper to new paper, never realizing they are being eaten alive.
doesn't hurt to be a billionaire already either.
@ DoChen... I junked you!
I'm surprised. I have read countless great comments from you for a long time. Why would you lend to governments (buy bonds)? Government is our enemy, and you should not enable them by loaning them money. Even if bonds were a good investment (which I do not believe they are), I would not buy them for moral reasons, for the same reason that I would not loan money to the mafia or to organized crime. If your bonds DO make you returns, it can only be at the point of a gun through taxing the poor and middle-class. Bonds are literally the modern day slave trade. Starve the leviathan, don't feed it!
They aren't necessarily Gvt Bonds. Did you ask?
Do,
I think you have a smart move there, the VERY best companies are going nowhere,after a collapse, they will continue to be.So,diversification is imperative, and smart.
Its easy to imagine some form of QE for the next four years and then a massive blowup when the financial system collapses.
this next round of QE or whatever is going to be hell to push thru politically.
yes, the politicians are all bought and paid for, but.....the peasants are getting restless......very restless......
and the pols will sell out their owners if it means they would lose their seats......
what happens to these folks....
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/28/grocery-store-workers-hunger-minneapolis-minnesota-cub-foods_n_868195.html
when Benny Boy's next round of money printing takes gas to six bucks and bread to four dollars?
we have to have a serious drop before they crank up the presses higher.....
if, for no other reason, to give the pols the spine to back Benny Boy and Timmah.
Agreed
Disagree.
The rapid rise in interest rates necessary to replace Ben and Japan as buyers of U.S. sovereign debt will shift the political will quickly. No amount of supposed "deficit cutting" will matter if rates rise three or four hundred basis points - the budget will suffocate under the weight of the debt service.
QEx is assured, and I will take Columbus Day as the over/under for any takers. By then, absent Ben's buying with clownbux, S&P will be triple digits, the Dow at 10K or below, and the 10-yr T yielding 5%+.
Just my view.
No matter what you think about gold and what it will do, if Bernanke doesn't do QEIII, equities and commodoties tank and Treasuries are still the preferred destination in the flight to safety. They'll have buyers.
Recent takes on T auctions suggests not. And I wouldn't be so quick to judge gold. It has incredible demand of late, holding its own in the recent commodity raids by the banksters.
I'm just callin' what I see. Dollar and Ts aren't safety anymore...
I didn't judge gold, on purpose. I have some but I'm not buying any more at the moment, waiting to see what happens with QE. And I agree with you on the current demand for T's, but the flight to safety hasn't begun. When it begins in earnest, T's will be in demand, I believe. The dollar seems to be on the rise of late, as well.
nope...if deflation becomes severe, people will liquidate USTs for cash.
The government cannot run a policy of massive deficits in a climate of cascading bankruptcy.
Deflation like this leads to currency collapse; which is why it's confused with hyperinflation. One causes the other. Massive debt overhangs lead to eventual bankruptcy of the sovereign and at that point the safe haven trade becomes a graveyard.
DOOMSDAY!
Think institutional investors.
Agreed, the game is to keep things going as long as they can while the central banks acquire gold and put in place the system that will make these self destructive spending measures meaningless.
Otherwise, they would not have allowed the self destructive spending measures in the first place.
It defies reason why Bernanke would have urged Obama to continue to stimulate when it clearly wasn't working, unless there was a game plan. Inasmuch as every central bank is currently cooperating and doing the same thing, as well as virtually every politician in the world that matters, and we are not seeing much public dissent among central bankers, than there must be a game plan that all the principals are in agreement on.
Since they are all buying gold after 20 years of net sales, that game plan must logically be assumed to involve gold. Hence, some sort of bastardized gold standard is coming, probably one that further strengthens their power over the sheep and pays off their debts.
Over 95% of the masses Don't know that The Fed is causing the inflation. They think it's the evil oil companies, evil farmers, or evil grocery stores. I was talking to a dumb broad at work who has been a corporate CPA for 25 years. She blamed the high gas prices on big oil.I tried to explain that their profit margins are still 10% and the price of food, gold etc were all skyrocketing. She just couldn't grasp that it was The Fed. If a CPA can't understad, what are the chances that the rest of the sheeple will figure out the current round of inflation is caused by QE?
@sun tzu
You overestimate the intelligence of the average CPA. And female CPA's? You should hear the stories about all the young ladies hired by the big firms. These chicks are head queens and college and it gets worse after B-school. But to really answer your question, once the rioting starts, the politicians (who have been in league with the bankers) and corporate chieftans will make sure that the 24 hour news cycle is jammed with explanations about the evils of banking.
Yeah but these queens are still much more financially educated that your average sheeple.
Ya think?
There is, according to the National Inflation Organization, $76 trillion in debt and federal obligations that have to be paid. Take out the 15 T in govt debt and we still need to find $56 TRILLION (just take it out of Petty Cash). Now, that is past debt that is coming due that can't be rolled over. It can be defaulted against but what was that old saw? Oh, yeah: "Debt doesn't matter if we owe it to ourselves". That is until we all demand payment. What to do. Ben's got the answer!
The debt ceiling will top out at $76 trillion just to pay off everyone's promises to themselves. Left hand/right hand illusion.
unwashed,
Your HuffBlow link hit a nerve,a tad OT, but affects all of us here.
Despite the stagnant pay, he says his workload has managed to increase. Whereas three workers used to clean the floors of a store, Garcia says two workers are now expected to complete the same task. He says he often has to work through breaks to get the job done.
Welcome to everyone's world..........to keep health insurance at a reasonable level, my spouse had to take a two grade level reclassification(just to get another position),and take a 25% decrease in pay.
This after 22yrs with the same huge defense contractor.
So, we feel the effects,but not nearly to the degree of most people.
Although he has no children, Garcia says he has a mother and a wheelchair-bound sister to look after back in Mexico, where he tries to send $300 or $400 each month. He declined to say whether he's documented to work here.
This is where I draw the line, poor me shit.Cry me a river.
He's illegal, and bitching about his plight HERE.
Go home and see how much better you will do.
He won't, because it's 10x's worse there.This man (I feel his pain,and am sorry for him), but one should not even be here, and two, people like him are the reason WHY the wages are $9.00 frigging a hour,and stagnant.
Where do people think the Coroporate profits are coming from?, right here.
One person, doing the work of three,ask my wife how she knows..........
I wish I had your optimism. I don't see a 4 year window before collapse.
Greece is dead, Spain is real, MENA is real, China is stagflating, Italy & Portugal are about to go flush, etc., etc.
The U.S. is on no better footing, except that it's (eroding) reserve currency status distributes the gangrene.
-in my sopwith camel
Don't forget Japan, the world's 3rd largest economy, now in meltdown mode. The ramifications on global GDP haven't even been felt yet, but they will be.
I don't see 4 years either. Things won't approach at a steady state. Events will accelerate as collapse nears.
now that's a fuking dip!
and...here's the storm, now tamer, but big (!) coming into japan...Japan Wind Map
whose savings depended on this index from 69-81, and whose do now?
S&P 400 - The Technical Case??Hell, I strongly believe in the possibility of deflation, but this is a stretch. (I'll stick with something close to a Haines bottom in memory and ignore that mess of squibbly lines and angles)
Seriously. You don't hand out $795 B in POMO and allow the bish to sink back to basement levels. More like S&P 2200 within 12 months.
But the reality is technicals are broken. They do not work please reinvent. please let me know what you come up with before you release so I can critique.
Don't think of S&P 400 in absolute terms.
Think of ongoing QE, inflation setting in, diminishing marginal returns from QE, and S&P going to 400 in real not nominal terms. Maybe its S&P 1500 nominal but 400 in real terms after inflation.
Oh, just to let you know. The S&P is price in 'real terms'.
If you have a problem with that then please go correct it. Peg the USD to gold and let me know how it turned out for you.
~O~
"Think of ongoing QE, inflation setting in, diminishing marginal returns from QE, and S&P going to 400 in real not nominal terms. Maybe its S&P 1500 nominal but 400 in real terms after inflation."
__
Yes, of course, my good Sir.
Hat tip.
Although in the small minority, I still see the possibility of a genuine deflation (notwithstanding the gentleman above who sees a more likely scenario of 2200.)
I can't help but remember the trillions of confetti papers that evaporated in 08 and other facts previously posted.
The real vs. nominal argument is the key. The central banks can do anything they want to our money because the public doesn't understand that concept. As long as the market numbers rise, they don't care what those numbers really represent. The price of gasoline, now that they care about.
I don't think the S&P is going to 2000 either. If Ben could pull that off, it would have already risen there. The markets have not shown any real strength for quite some time.
If the S&P goes down so much as 10% there will be congressional hearings. Don't want that. lolololol
The fed is making all the important decisions these days. Who needs 600 assholes who do nothing but raise taxes and reallocate income
http://democrats.financialservices.house.gov/press/PRArticle.aspx?NewsID...
Man, that would toast Warren Buffet.
he will be advantageously positioned. and it won't be public knowledge until after the event
He'd still be a billionair. And, there will be dip buyers who turn into bag-holders. Who will then sell other assets they own. Including gold, silver, oil, real-estate...Sure, some new billionaires will be born who went balls in on OTM puts, and leveraged short the right swaps, but that's a zero sum game.
Humongous Bank and Broker control the markets. Period. Thus, bank luquidity decides where the markets go.
No more QE and we head for the 800 area on the chart below (we've been there twice in the past decade).
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s162499420]&disp=P
below that is anyones guess.
And, if your curious about the effect of luqidity injection (either by changing bank account rules or QE) heres one for you.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s206018187]&disp=P
JUST watch the long term trends - the rest is just ASCII characters
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s218718281]&disp=P
Humongous Bank and Broker control the markets.
Humongous banks and brokers (are losing) control (of) the markets.
Gravity always wins. Unending liquidity works until it doesn't. Then there are no more buttons to push except the "self-destruct" ones.
There will be QE to hell at the mere suspicion of the beginning of such a move. Not going to happen. At least not in USD terms.
I am curious about the real fudamentals chart that refers to aluminum copper and zinc. Does it mean that their is a whole lot of speculative money going into those commodities in China?
Inquiry Into Monopolistic Trading Practices By JPMorgan On LME ...
YouTube - Warren Zevon - Werewolves Of London
Nic Lenoir is at 380. Although he's got beat up lately by the market he's a good market analyst.
Copied and saved the chart as a reminder that the generational opportunity to make f off money is near. Thank you TD.
Wishing all protecting our country to be safe.
I vividly recall "Blindman" back in the RGE days calling 450 just as the S&P began it's current 666 suckers rally, are you out there Blindman?
As some posters astutely point out, nominal numbers are now meaningless. S&P 40,000 means nothing in hyperinflated dollars.
Here in Canada we have a saying: when the horse dies -- dismount.
euphemisms...
is that a quote from Brokeback mountain?
444.
Matches nicely with 666.
As my vulgar brother would say, the carpet matches the drapes.
/:
Orly, I have no idea how your reference makes sense, but I like it; keep it up.
Check my posts. I have been calling for SPX444 for three years...
<Got gold>?
Of course not. And if you hold it, you're not being as wise as you think you are.
Gold is subject to a speculative bubble and, due to the ultra-thin nature if its true availability, it is prone to manipulation more than anything else in the world, save palladium.
Not only that, but our government could easily mandate we turn in all our gold for FRNs, lest we be held in contempt of court and sentenced to prison. Perhaps a law could be written that anyone caught trading in gold could face the death penalty.
Unfortunately, the value of gold is in inverse correlation to what The Powers That Be believe it is. I don't want to play that game. I would rather grow vegetables and raise rabbits than have my hard-earned money confiscated at will by thugs with "ootsies."
And they will. Believe.
1. The speculative bubble is the whole world economy at the moment - not gold.
2. Despite manipulation - the gold price is still rising....meaning the powers that be are losing control (rapidly)
3. How would the government know you have gold?
4. If gold became illegal - sell it somewhere else. I am certain those Asians would love to buy it.
5. By the time the government did declare gold illegal, they would have lost control over the entire financial complex (and would be too busy to enforcing bank runs rather than looking for people with gold coins.)
My bad...
I should just go on-line and see if I have a Chinese buyer for my gold and pack it in a USPS box ("If it fits, it ships...") on the way to Guangdong, hoping and praying that the guy over there will remit my money to my JPM/Chase account via electronic transfer...
Just what planet am I living on, by the way?
They will be plenty of buyers if such a scenario occurred. Much akin to cuban cigars and liquor bans in WW2. You wouldn't have to look far.
How old are you?
Just curious because I do remember when gold was illegal in the U.S.
Cuban cigars and alcohol (although awesome, I'm sure to consume) do not do as a long term storage of value, gold, of course, can, if permitted to do so by TPTB, if not, it does not.
As a small boy, many years ago, I saw my mother throw gold away rather than give it to the Communist.
Trust me, when prison terms are enacted of 5 years +, trading in gold quickly loses it's luster.
___
"Trust me, when prison terms are enacted of 5 years +, trading in gold quickly loses it's luster."
Give me a break....when everyone on Wall Street is inside trading and buying golden commodes without fear of prosecution - I don't think you should lose sleep over gold confiscation. Besides, you don't think that the powerful elite don't have a golden parachute?Be brave - give your Fed the golden (or silver) middle finger for raping your tax dollars and destroying your currency.
"Give me a break....when everyone on Wall Street is inside trading and buying golden commodes without fear of prosecution "
True but you are not of that social class are you?
You are a mere peon to be done with as the ruling class commands.
And again, how old are you?
If thier stealing your gold for a prison sentence, don't cha think you may be better off with 3 meals and a cot guarrenteed? Same when they come for guns, Do you feel better in jail or on the run for non -compliance? Personal resposibility is all we got.
Gen. Yevgraf Zhivago: "I told myself it was beneath my dignity to arrest a man for pilfering firewood. But nothing ordered by the party is beneath the dignity of any man, and the party was right: One man desperate for a bit of fuel is pathetic. Five million people desperate for fuel will destroy a city. That was the first time I ever saw my brother. But I knew him. And I knew that I would disobey the party. Perhaps it was the tie of blood between us, but I doubt it. We were only half tied anyway, and bothers will betray a brother. Indeed, as a policeman, I would say, get hold of a man's brother and you're halfway home. Nor was it admiration for a better man than me. I did admire him, but I didn't think he was a better man. Besides, I've executed better men than me with a small pistol. I told them who I was: The old man was hostile, the girl cautious, my brother... seemed very pleased. I think the girl was only one who guessed at their position."
Orly,
Thought you didn't have any gold to sell...
I think you're way, way off on this. All of Indo-China, and now MENA, is buying gold in huge physical quantities. And so are numerous central banks (in stealth). Why is that?
Gold is no bubble. It is if anything way undervalued in fiat terms. But those who hold it know its worth. Might even buy you ought of your veggies and rabbits someday.
As for confiscation, by the time it gets to that we'll all be reliant on the most precious of all metals - Pb.
Enjoy Oz, Dorothy.
Sure, okay, Super-Snoopy. Give 'em lead!
Look, I made it, ma! Top o' da woild!
having said that and given your consistency the question we all want answered of course is "does your carpet match your drapes now?"
Sorry.
Laminate.
:0
Agree with Gemini gold is not in a bubble, fiat currencies and debt economy is in a bubble.
Even in the 1933 great confiscation of gold they never went door to door. Not productive to do. People willingly turned their gold in, but won't happen today. This time around people are better informed and less trusting. Now it would be even less productive to try to confiscate gold and controls would be an admission fiat is a total failure and make gold rise even faster. It would have to be a global event.
I like the rabbit and food thing, similar myself. But the Food Safety Act, and implementation of the UN Codex Alimentarius are just as harmful to food self sufficiency as confiscation of gold.
What are they? FSA ties in with CA which is a global mandate to control food production "for our safety." Fierce regulations that will eventually prevent family gardens. Yep. You can't make this shit up, literally.
Examples of what's in it: You will not be allowed to use manure for fertilizer because they say it harms the water supply. You will have to use mandated seeds -- which are genetically engineered to produce sterile plants -- so you will have to buy new seeds every year, from Monsanto. Small Farmers will be regulated out of existence through regulations and fines for kicking up "dust." No more roadside farmers markets because they can't comply with the regs.
It's already happening:
A family in MO were fined up to 4 million dollars by the USDA for selling more than $500 worth of rabbits in one year -- they sold bunnies to petting zoos!
Whole Foods in Dallas already had to pull some locally obtained produce because of this crap.
Country farmers are getting hit with large fines by EPA for kicking up dust while plowing.
The Federal government is shutting down generational family fisherman in New England with new mandated catch restrictions. They plan to do the same thing to sport fisherman use similar rules to restrict fishing and control all US inland waterways and private land by invoking watershed rules -- rationale is that all land is part of some watershed therefore they have jurisdiction.
Control of all food and water is their creepy unrepentant goal. Google Codex Alimentarious and take a peek at the crap that is in there and where it comes from. I think Europe is already doing it and ahead of us. I think the US was supposed to start implementing in January 2010. It's an anaconda intended to crush the little people leaving only crony food and water monopolies.
They're doing the same thing in the UK. In the cities, it is illegal to grow food for consumption. In England!
"Sitting in an English garden, waiting for the sun..."
*
Orly,
There were a lot of Jews who got out of Germany and survived the Holocaust because they didn't follow that advice.
Your argument that gold can be confiscated applies equally as well to your land where you intend to grow those rabbits, or any form of wealth for that matter. A lot of people lost their land after the Civil War and during the great depression because of taxes they couldn't pay. I hope you have considered that fact. Right now, states, cities, and counties are rasing real estate taxes to make up for lost revenue.
There is no safety in End Game, but gold seems to be the safest play with the highest probability for appreciation.
Confiscation didn't work during FDR's reign of terror, and it won't work this time either. Not only that, but it doesn't have to work for the central bank's plan to dig us out of our debt through a gold standard to work (really, a chew and screw leaving the savers with the bill).
Oh, you're like Creggie Milton. You keep calling and calling for everything in the world to happen and if/when it does you PROCLAIM "look at me" I'm clairvoyant. I think I met a card reader on the boardwalk in Venice who did about the same thing.
R u Creggie Milton?
Measuring the economy in worthless fiat still eh...move along.
Seems to be attached to illusions.
guys and gals....what ur opinion of this chart s&p from 1900 to present...thanks in advance
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/spx-index-secular-markets-1900-2010/
In the middle of the second bear the dollar lost its backing of domestic ability when FDR stole all of America's gold and took it off of the standard. This spurred inflation, and led equity higher, as it took more dollars to by the same amount of equity. Then during the third bear market, the dollar lost its international backing, as Tricky Dick (and do NOT state "Barry" when referring to Obama because that is racist and sophmoric..sarc/ off) took the dollar off of that standard, setting the stage for a big move in inflation. Now we have a bear market, and Bernanke has been monetizing debt through TARPs, STIMULOUSes, and QEs for three years, setting the stage for the final capitulation of the fiat system.
You sound like you know what your talking about. When would that occur?
The next two years should see the move completed. The move began already. We are moving towards the end of the time frame. More than anything it has to do with how people will react to it. If America rolls over and stays complacent it may be a steady move. The crushing point is when oil makes gdp negative. That happens around $200/b. The move to $200 may last over a year.
It will take people two years to understand that the fiat ponzi was initiated to steal and consolidate all wealth among the corporations and their debt/equity instead of government issuance of fiat/bonds. Once the governments are at the mercy of corporations, the New World Order will be firmly in place.
Third time's the charm, or three strikes were out!
May I also submit for your perusal the following:
#1315453
Frikkin' scary, yo.
Orly. Read your post #1315453. Yes, the concept is scary. So, Is Palin Jewish ?
The concept of Zionism, as we understand it, has very little to do with who or what is "Jewish." The idea that it's "da Jooooz" is but another brick in the Wall. In fact, it could be said that that is the ultimate brick in the Wall; the cornerstone, more or less. All it really means is that criminals are trying, with whatever means available, to get away with whatever they can get away with- with a scheme so crazy that anyone who dares speak of it should be committed.
You dare compare yourself to Anne Frank??? You frikkin' moulie! Only Jews can do that! (The point is you see how divisive "Jewism" is even amongst fairly well-read ex-football players...)
"Jewism" is the final piece of the puzzle that represents the last roadblock because disninformationists have been writing about it for centuries. Mayer Braun (of the Red Shield...) = Jew; Kissinger = Jew, Bush = (somehow a...) Jew, and on and on and on. The Elders of Zion and blah, blah, blah...
Ooooh, that's crazy talk. That's just nonsense!
That, my friend, is how they have been getting away with it for so long. They should have engendered a culture of political correctness long ago and...oh, wait!
It has nothing do do with one's creed. It has to do with whether these people are criminals or not. They are not Jews, in the eyes of Jehovah, believe. They are all criminals who are hell-bent on taking everything from everyone, no matter of race, creed or national origin. If they can turn it in for a sliver of gold, it has value to them. If not, it is worthless. You included.
They are criminals in the eyes of God. That's all.
No, Palin is not Jewish, no more than Heinz Kissinger is; which is to say not at all. She is but a pawn- and she knows she is but a pawn in the giant game of her life. Barry is a rook and has been brought up that way. He has always accepted the fact that he is a big piece on the board but hardly controls anything.
The thing is that the New World Order must be brought into fruition within the next five years, or all bets are off- and all the hard work they have done from killing Kennedy to manipulating Nixon and hiding their deeds from Reagan to forcing Clinton and Obama down our throats would be for nought.
It is up to us to see through their schemes and call them on it, no matter how ludicrous it seems. For them, the more ludicrous it seems, the better, for the more you say so, the more you look like a fool.
I am not afraid to sound like a fool. Nor should you be. We can see what is going on; how they are trying to force this insanity down our throats. When we speak out, we sound like idiots- and that fits perfectly into their game.
But, I ask you...
If the simplest solution that fits all the parts of the puzzle sounds so insane, does that make it any less true? I don't think so,
Either...
Orly this may be of vast interest to you.
I would love for you to see the connections between the Catholic church and the Islamic religion which it gave birth to (the image of the beast-Revelation 13).
They are all sun worshippers, anyone with half a brain could see the connection if they were to put their precious preconceived notions to rest for an hour and a half.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDBRPF9uCYk
we are all sun worshippers now
The outer circle, the goyim, are not aware of what is going on behind the curtain.
You should be ashamed for responding without viewing the evidence. Ridicule is the greatest response I could ever ask for.
I saw the video and I thank your for the link.
The ideas expressed are similar to that other video, Zeitgeist, which argues that all of the Christian holidays are related to the ancient Egyptian holidays and special events. I think the idea is to dilute the specialness of Christianity in the eyes of the world to make it just another religious scam.
The video in the link goes a step further by stating that Islam is a product of Catholicism and both have a common ruling sect in Rome. Also, the ruling sect in Rome don't believe anything even roughly related to the religion the unwashed masses are told.
In fact, the ruling sect believes, as the ancient Egyptians did, in Isis and Osiris and Horus, eventually settling on the one God of the planet who rules over us all: Lucifer.
I guess what the ruling sect doesn't understand, really, is that, just as there is no Jehovah, no Allah, no God, there is no Lucifer, either. The holidays they worship under their Satanic rites and Masonic rituals are the same dates that have been a constant of mankind for 100,000 years: the winter solstice, the spring equinox, etc.
The problem is not that they can actually crush the ideas of Christianity anyway, so I wouldn't worry about anyone trying to dilute the beliefs. They have tried that for centuries without success and that is because, as the lecturer stated in the video, anyone can talk to Jesus any time, anywhere. Idols and altars are not necessary.
Also, as far as pure religions go, Christianity is the singular religion without a goyim. It is the reason Jesus broke with the Jews in the first place. As a rabbi, he was aware that there were actually two religious disciplines in Judaism, the Torah and the Talmud; one written down so the goyim could see that the Jews were okay, the other a stricly oral tradition that basically said they weren't really okay; that Jews could break Commandments when relating to outsiders and low-lifes.
Jesus dared to challenge this idea and- with a marketing campaign gone haywire- ended up losing in the end his bid to become King of the Jews and changing those ideas that are still in practice today.
The principles and ideals that belong to Christianity are the best thing to happen to this planet, the same as American democracy is the ideal in politics. Both have been perverted, sure, but as they were written they demonstrate the best in man: We are all equal under the law, as we are all equal in the eyes of God.
Orly,
I know, you know, there MUST be a NWO.
It is written.It has to come about before the end.
We are nearing those times.Far closer/faster than anyone dares to believe.
It's on HIS timing not theirs, or ours.
Well, you say so. But what is His may belong to Him.
I don't believe that, though- or maybe I do. I am in the midst of a readjustment of my understanding of the spiritual world, what I would decribe as the world beyond our immediate understanding.
I am coming to the realisation that events are set about in waves that eventually overlap to form some sort of resolution, much like Karl G. Jung's ideas of synchronicity, acausal connecting principles.
One may say that this is indeed God that is making these things happen on His own time, which, even according to my ideas, would be accurate. The universe moves in waves and there are times when the resonant frequency of those initial waves coincide to produce something cataclysmic and society-altering. We are indeed entering one of those times.
We need to understand that these events were set in motion many, many moons ago and that we now have no choice but to watch them unfold. It would behoove us to openly and vocally oppose Sarah Palin's bid for the presidency. Those waves were set in motion long ago, too.
Tell everyone what a crock and a crook it is. They will eventually come to understand. Do not let them simply shove someone else down our throats. This is the time we must stand up and be heard. It is the only way to stop this insanity once and for all.
I am still trying to digest what is sillier - NWO theory or gold bubble theory? Perhaps we're both wrong.
Orly did not say we are in a Gold bubble.
Re-read the post.
Nope, not in the least.
Matter of fact great news for those who are LEAVING.
And as God is my witness, I am so ready.
This world is INSANE.
That's some sexy talk you got there Mr. Hendrix. I'd like to log in as Hugh E. Rection and give you a shout out right now!
he said log and e-rection. heheheh
LH is right even if he turns out to be wrong about the why. We don't even have to venture into New World Order talk to see that returning to a gold standard is not going to be good for the average Joe. What would have been a good thing only a handful of years ago will leave the public footing the bill and concentrate the world's wealth in the banks and major corporations. They already have much of that wealth, but it will consolidate their political power too.
I don't know anything about a NWO, I usually confine myself to trying to figure out the angles today, but I can't see anything stopping it from coming about. Maybe global warfare which changes the rules, that's usually the result during a system crash. From my perspective, the NWO is not all that new, it's just a logical progression of what has been happening over the last 100 years.
Smiddy,
The NWO is as old as the earth itself.It is part of the ultimate plan, and must come to fruition.And it will.'No man can stop it.Slow it down, yeah, to an extent,but it is written.