S&P 400 - The Technical Case

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Sat, 05/28/2011 - 17:33 | 1319796 Dejean Splicer
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One must respect the "generational low". He just died for gods sake. Have some respect!

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 17:39 | 1319804 razorthin
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that was doug kass. guess he meant a generation of mosquitos

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 17:44 | 1319813 Dejean Splicer
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Hint: Haines Bottom.

~O~

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 18:02 | 1319840 ??
??'s picture

and Doug Kass too? I always liked him, like a member of the finanical rat pack.  I think he lived in Palm Beach not far from what's his face.. ahhh whatever  they're dropping like flys and I'm still mourning Louis Rukeyser.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MyToTwag34

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 18:02 | 1319847 razorthin
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no, doug didn't die.  but he coined the, "generational low" on crudlow

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 18:06 | 1319852 ??
??'s picture

you shouldn't start rumors like that but I'm glad he's okay.

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 18:29 | 1319885 Spirit Of Truth
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The "Haines Bottom" is dead (literally).  The "Apocalypse Wave" may come next: 

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2011/05/major-planetary-alignment-t...

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 21:51 | 1320116 TruthInSunshine
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Prepare for game over for global economy (not because it's a U.N. Report or because it's being widely reported by Reuters, AP and every other major wire service, but because the velocity is there on a psychological level).

For anyone thinking the woes of the U.S. and Eurozone will be net accretive to the economic prosperity of the BRIC nations or any others, think again, too.

We're entering a global black hole:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/25/us-economy-un-idUSTRE74O6EI201...

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 22:27 | 1320169 Ted K
Ted K's picture

This is the institution headed by the corrupt Ban Ki Moon?? The same guy who couldn't stop the Cholera outbreak in Haiti???  The guy walking around the halls of the U.N. going "Kaaawweeeeaaaa da best!!!!  Kaaaawwweeeaaaa da best!!!!"

Put me down an extra 5 zillion long the S&P 500 would you Jeeves???

Sun, 05/29/2011 - 09:26 | 1320449 Smiddywesson
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Agreed. Interestingly enough, a friend of mine who is a very smart guy has mocked me for predicting China was a superbubble that would shatter the world's economy, precisely because it was the MSM's central hope for a global recovery.  Without the hordes of middle class Chinese consumers everyone has crowed about, the future becomes very clear.  Despite all my talk about the empty cities, the lack of jobs, incredible overcapacity, the tightening up of Internet access, repression of journalists, and ridiculous growth claims while their energy usage crashed, he just laughed at me.

It's just an anecdote, but he isn't laughing anymore.  If such a stalwart of the party line is beginning to see the light, the end can't be far away.

Sun, 05/29/2011 - 09:55 | 1320458 Drag Racer
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have your friend watch this.

Marc Faber tells it like it is.

Mirror, Mirror on the Wall, When is the Next AIG to Fall?

Sun, 05/29/2011 - 11:15 | 1320539 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Have a link where you do not have to join the Google Gestapo?.

Between them and Facebook, Seig Heil.

Sun, 05/29/2011 - 22:55 | 1321720 baby_BLYTHE
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Great presentation. I send that one out anytime someone asks me 'where is the economy headed?'

Sun, 05/29/2011 - 11:26 | 1320547 Temporalist
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I shared that here recently too TIS.  Here is another:

BOJ Calls Japan Fiscal State 'Very Serious'

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230406650457635086332821696...

 

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 18:07 | 1319850 Orly
Orly's picture

Doug Kass is not dead.

Y'all stop this nonsense.  It's disgusting.

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 18:07 | 1319855 ??
??'s picture

don't look at me, razorthing started the rumor - if only Louis was still with us

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 18:08 | 1319857 Dejean Splicer
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Christ sakes, relax Orly. So DK coined it but MH drove the point home. We will never see 666 again. Period!

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 18:51 | 1319905 Carnegie_IB
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We will never see 667 again. Period!

--captain obvious

 

 

Sun, 05/29/2011 - 11:41 | 1320566 disabledvet
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"but you might see 666." Captain Obvious said, quietly...sternly...with nerves of steel.

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 19:14 | 1319931 Orly
Orly's picture

Look, y'all: I realise that people are pissed and that the way things should work needs to be taken back from those who have looted from us...

And I'm not at all against humour...

But...

Try to keep in mind that the people we write about and completely disagree with- to a vengeance- all have family and friends who read this stuff and they are not guilty of what the target of our disdain has done.  I mean, it's one thing to diss someone for their views and to say, not exactly in so many words, how you disagree with them.  But to carry on as though someone has died who hasn't really passed away...well, that's just too much.

If my daughter read that I was dead before I was even dead, I can't think about how I would feel in that regard; how she would feel.

I do understand that we need to vent and to dispose of the rats who are in control but do please try to consider what you're writing before you write it and whom it may affect before it is submitted.

Sorry to be a bummer on parade but saying Doug Kass is dead is not at all funny to his wife and family.  I was dismayed hearing those words.  Kass is one of the good guys.

Please try to keep that in mind.

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 19:37 | 1319972 Dejean Splicer
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r u hi?

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 19:43 | 1319979 Orly
Orly's picture

Just think about it before you post, M. Splicer.

That's all I ask.

 

Sun, 05/29/2011 - 00:44 | 1320251 mkkby
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Orly, don't be so naive.  These TV talking heads CRAVE attention, and willingly put up with the good and bad publicity to get their fix.  Their families know that, and if they suffer, it is their celebrity parent who caused it.

There is no comparison to your daughter at all.  Celebrity families grow a thick skin and deaf ears.

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 22:08 | 1320143 traderjoe
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One of the good guys? I respectfully disagree. I call "them" all the money-changers. People that skim off the productivity of others, in part by perpetuating a regime of inflation - which silently robs the wealth of the savers and the producers. If we did not have inflation, savers would not need to chase returns to preserve their wealth. Deflation is the natural order of things, as productivity reduces costs.

So the money-changers create a system of inflation to benefit from it in several ways, one of which is to earn fees from savers who need to try to preserve their wealth from the very system the money changers have created.

Any participation in the Ponzi is complicency in the Ponzi.

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 22:13 | 1320150 Orly
Orly's picture

I can respect that.  You have a difference of opinion.

At least you didn't inform his wife and children over a financial blog, incorrectly and as a joke, that their daddy was dead.

That's just not cool.

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 23:35 | 1320207 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Dude - I would not worry about it.  What you read hear will be tame to the sh*t that will go down when things start falling apart faster in the USA. The wheels are already in motion.  

I love the POS lib scum here who voted for the islamic with their "system falls apart fantasy" and they have a little gold and PM stashed away.   These lib pu**ies will be handing it over when the first gang shows up and murders them anyway. They voted for Zimbabwe.

Sun, 05/29/2011 - 00:16 | 1320231 Vic Vinegar
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Cognitive Dissonance asked this week why we read Zero Hedge.  I came here for news coverage by Tyler and friends and I stay for hilarious and bizzare comments like this one.  LOL!

Sun, 05/29/2011 - 04:49 | 1320336 Ivar Kreuger
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Holy shit.

I didn't know we get to vote on monetary policy.

/sac

You talk about voting like it matters.

That is how I know you are a dumbass.

Sun, 05/29/2011 - 02:34 | 1320309 Civil Shepard
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Orly, you are correct.

Sun, 05/29/2011 - 09:39 | 1320457 Orly
Orly's picture

Thanks.

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 20:15 | 1320008 Re-Discovery
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Haines Bottom.  Now there is something no one but Mrs. Haines should see.

(Everybody and their brother had tributes to him this week.  Consider this post mine.)

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 20:51 | 1320057 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

s p 400 is not happening....the dow will hyperinflate and go to 36000 before it goes back to 5000.....there is no way we are going back down in 50 years the dow will be 100000. I'm just waiting for the big gold revaluation......because it appears its coming overnight....

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 21:58 | 1320129 Jasper M
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I'll take the under in that trade.

Sun, 05/29/2011 - 11:08 | 1320535 DosZap
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Yeah,

Surpise,surprise, it will be revalued to $500.00oz.

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 17:52 | 1319829 imsaul0968
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We all know this SHOULD happen but here's why it won't: The govt saved us in 2009 from going down to 400 which is where the market likely would have headed. Now the fed has spent 2.5 trillion to prop up asset prices. Does anyone really think tricky Ben would allow us to waste all that money only to see the market go back to where it was headed anyway? Anyone betting on that outcome is holding a lottery ticket. The better bet is that we and other countries go all in and try to inflate our way out of debt so gold going to 3000 at least seems like a much smarter bet. If Bennie ever gets the kind of inflation he wants, the add to GDP will allow us to inflate that pesky debt away...gold gold gold, bet with the central banks, they seem to know what they are forced to do will be what benefits gold the most

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 18:54 | 1319915 Carnegie_IB
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so why did the govt not save the market from the 2008 drop? the continued belief they will prevent such a decline actually increases the likelihood that it does in fact happen.

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 22:17 | 1320153 traderjoe
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How do we know that it wasn't orchestrated? The flash crash on the day of the Fed audit debate, the TARP rejection drop, etc. If it is manipulated on the upside, likely on the downside too...

Sun, 05/29/2011 - 11:44 | 1320569 disabledvet
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good question.  one seldom asked in these here parts.

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 20:00 | 1319993 rocker
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Wow 'Imsaul' .  Dude.  Do you realize you just blew off EWI's Robert (Preacher) Prechter's forecast too. After all, his philosophy is that the FED doesn't matter. He has preached that for 3 years telling people to short the markets. Selling his ponzi scheme forecast on everything you need to fail as a investor. So this is a dilemma. Who's right. Prechter strikes out on his third year to short the markets. Hmmm. Technical Case @400, which I think we were going to too. Or the FED who does matter, (wrong answer Robert), and is hell bent on destroying the dollar in order to maintain the status quo. Would Ben let it all go to waste? That does not seem to be the question. Ben belongs to the Cartel. Is it his decision? I don't think so. The PDs, CBs, and TPTB know this part. Would TPTB take all that money back? Maybe, that is what they have done in the past. What I do know is Gold and PM's are real. I'll take the Hard Money bet. It has been real for generations.       

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 20:16 | 1320012 Carnegie_IB
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you bet TPTB will bury the tape. To take 99% of the money you have to do what only 1% would do. Too much on the table not to take it in order to rinse and repeat.

As for Prechter, 3 years is nothing in the scheme of things. He has riden the March 2009 turn up and it is doubtful he is not a one of the best in our time.

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 22:03 | 1320132 Jasper M
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Confirmed, and seconded.

Sun, 05/29/2011 - 01:46 | 1320280 rocker
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@ Carnegie.  'Riding the rise since 2009' was fairly easy. The problem is, he has been dead money since. He lost big bucks telling people to short 3 times in the last 3 years. If his wave principal in so reliable as he claims. Why didn't it work for him then. My answer. Wave principals can work momentarily. But can not forecast a reliable trend within a 3 year period. That is something he has proven. His forecast have Failed. They are a great historical thesis. But that is looking backwards. Think of all the money one could have made betting against him. Look at short interest. He never says anything about the herd mentality of shorts. Goldman Sachs knows how to burn shorts. That's why they trade perfect 89 of 90 days. They go against the EW herd. I'm not defending the Squid. Actually I wish the SEC would demolish GS. Giving them bank status is they death blow for honest investors who trade on principal and sound fundamentals. But that's what GS's special sauce software can do. Manipulate and trade against you because they know where every bet is. Reality is, if you were not long as say, Marc Faber said. You lost money and many opportunities to gain against the devaluation of the dollar. Which is another bad call by Robert. He has had a long dollar forecast for the past years too. LMAO on that call too. What a shithead to make that call. All these things can turn next week. But that does not make Robert right after so many bad years. A broken clock is right 2x every day. Eh.

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 21:12 | 1320080 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

The govt hasn't saved a fucking thing. Fuck me! What's the purchasing power of a point of the SP or any miserable fucking other index or share when converted into funnimunny? What's your measuring stick for value? A stupid fucking blip on a stupid fucking index that measures a stupid fucking electronic credit to your stupid fucking digital stupid fucking imaginary account? 

The govt saved us!? Thanks a fucking lot you dullards.

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 23:58 | 1320219 Al Gorerhythm
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There's two (so far).

Sun, 05/29/2011 - 00:34 | 1320243 cosmictrainwreck
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bizarre phenomenon, ain't it? lulz

Sun, 05/29/2011 - 07:50 | 1320401 Al Gorerhythm
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Yeah. Sighz.

Sat, 05/28/2011 - 21:42 | 1320105 cosmictrainwreck
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as has probably already been alluded to.... these chartists are on LSD, man. whatever happened to the basic tenent: "future outcomes not contingent on prior returns"? in other words, this time it really is diff., with a capital "D". NEVER in the history of any market anywhere have such bullshit propping up, lying, cheating & stealing by those in power, and etc., ad nauseum, occurred. The so-called "historical" "cyclic" charts are just that.... past tense. Applied up until 2007-ish. Hence, the charts "predict" what it [it= a "normal market] would have turned out to be, had not the Fed & Wall Skreet hijacked the whole show. Unfortunately, they did. Ergo, we will never know what "woulda happened". Hence, their "predictions" are as good as mine = throw a dart at the dartboard.

Sun, 05/29/2011 - 04:23 | 1320332 OldPhart
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You can only inflate debt away when you don't keep constantly adding to it.  What we will see is successive additions to debt at higher interest. 

Sun, 05/29/2011 - 11:16 | 1320542 cxl9
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Good point. Inflating away the debt can only occur if the currency is being diluted faster than new debt is being accumulated. How can we take a crack at determining which one is happening? One crude method might be to measure the amount of debt in ounces of gold. As the currency is diluted, the price of gold goes up. Is gold price increasing (dollar value decreasing) more rapidly than debt is accumulating? Some quick calculations using figures from U.S. Treasury "debt to the penny" and historical London gold fixing prices:

date  ... debt in toz. of gold (mm)

12/31/2009 ... 11,321

03/31/2010 ... 11,451

06/30/2010 ... 10,614

09/30/2010 ... 10,376

12/31/2010 ... 9,979

03/31/2011 ... 9,917

05/26/2011 ... 9,447

Debt expressed in ounces of gold has been declining for some time. It would be interesting to look at a more complete series. In June 2002 debt/gold was 21,372. I wonder where it peaked and began its decline (I have my suspicions...)

By this crude measure, the currency is being diluted more rapidly than new debt is being accumulated, which suggests that the attempt to "inflate away" the debt is having some success.

 

Sun, 05/29/2011 - 11:34 | 1320556 Temporalist
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"Success" as in someone's attempt to commit suicide was "successful?"

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