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S&P Breaks Channel Support, Market At One Standard Deviation Away From YTD VWAP
As expected, the ES channel hit resistance yesterday... and went straight down. And the fear for bulls may materialize as the resistance is on the edge of getting taken out, just as the dollar is poised for a break out. Look for a major fight between bulls and bears at the 1,126 ES level.
The SPY is now at 113.16, which is points away from a dead zone in YTD volume. YTD VWAP is at 113.97, and today's level is well into the one std dev range to the downside. Once again, the 113 support area is critical.
And another troubling technical, the closing SPY VWAP is about to breach the long-term trendline. Absent the mysterious lunch time bid showing up and closing us green again on nothing, this trendline will be breached today.
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Wrong day for me to be short the VIX...
if you are short the vix, you are just plain dumb
I'm short vol in general, not the VIX directly. But then again every option seller is short volatility. A 10-strike wide iron condor on the SPY would have netted you about 25% a month for the past year.
Short vol is not going to go well...
Wrong week for me to quit amphetamines.
The Fed needs some fresh powder, and fast.
The Fed has plenty of fresh powder, whether they use it fast or not is another question. If, indeed the Treserve is the two-headed monster I think it is, they will hold off and used the global panic to pack as much T-bond issuance as possible.
Once they do that, the powedering can commence.
Don't forget the decreasing volume.
This keeps happening over and over; at least three times in the past six months. The dollar drops, crude prices rise, creep past eighty dollars a barrel; the price drops a few days later - as Saudi Arabia adds a few hundred thousand barrels to the Brent exchange, perhaps. The resulting defacto hard dollar kills the markets.
It's deja vu all over again as oil is the new gold. Welcome to 1931. As more traders start making the connection, there will be less pressure to short the dollar, after all it is worth something real. One- half gallon of oil.
Unlike gold, oil is absolutely essential to the operation of so- called 'modern economies'. Eighty a barrel ... it must be running out.
My previous bearish warnings for stocks is now confirmed.
My previous USD bull and EURO bear warnings are also confirmed.
UPDATES:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
In early 2007 I warned of an impending stockmarket crash.
I confirmed a bottom by early April 2009.
In mid 2009 I warned of an impending USD rally.
The uptrend since March 2009 has been a bear market rally contained within a much larger bear cycle that started in 2000.
In fairness, I remember Grand Supercycle's prediction of a dollar rally a few months ago -- & also recall that this prediction was met here with open jeering & derision. At that time, the EUR-USD was at about 149!
He who laughs last...
Fat fingered brokers returning to desks after lunch. Becareful guys.....administration don't like down days. It almost personal with them. If you short the market, its like shorting the administration.
Newsflash: after last night the adminstration is ripe for shorting.
The only difference today is that the administration could blame a big down move on pessimism related to Scott Brown's win in MA.
Blood fart brokers and savy retail dick fish investors are apparently buying the close. Hope they get their heads chopped off tomorrow.....
Eddie Murphy and Dan Akroyd are sitting back arms folded waiting for the Fed/Treasury signal "BUY 'EM"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! PPT ready to pounce any minute...
"Looking good, Billy Ray!"
"Feeling good, Louis!"
Were you guys looking for this?
Tyler, how many samples in the VWAP - is this a 5 day simple weighted average?
Can someone educate me, please? What does 'VWAP' stand for?
Answering from France (sorry for my poor english)
WVAP = a geometrical average of the trades in a day.
For example :
1st deal : 100 stocks @ 50
2nd deal : 200 stocks @ 52
=> Vwap = 51.3333 ((100*50)+(200*52))/(100+200)
Clear ?
Volume-Weighted Average Price. Don't ask me again... ;)
Market looks like its sure to break resistance today - which probably means we break 1126 on the ES, run a few points below and the HFT buy the living daylights out of everything they see as most people short and sell into the breakdown to force us back up - same story different day to infinity....
And within mere minutes of your mentioning it, Bernanke's in buying... almost like he reads you Tyler.
There are times when the Host makes no sense.
I was buying treasuries last week, and made the mistake of reading the fools on this this site. All the indicatos were screaming oversold, but the usual suspects kept saying the same thing. UGH
the announcer talks day in and out about the market being oversold and a joke, but then makes fun of buying treasuries.
the comments between bulls and bears make no sense. there are so few players in the market there are no longer bulls and bears. there is a guy/ computer at goldman who trades the chanels. the smaller the volume the easier it is to manipulate the market so we never get a sell of longer than one day anymore.
For god's sake, you argue multiple points at once and they don't fit into an overall structure. You have to connect the dots.
Dollar has been going up since early december. "profit taking" in foreign markets. during this entire month the s%P didn't sell off. why manipulation!!. The dubai episode was the trigger for taking less risk.
when the xmas rally came we got the bump. Now it's just like last yeat with the markets falling after the exmas rally. except with nobody in the markets and access to window goldman can manipulate the s&P.
this my friend is the narrative you should be selling that puts it all together!!!
I wrote the site author and pointed out that we had no sell off the entire month of december. no multiple down days really. This happens when the market is namipulated. please give me a break. Look at the currency markets. UDN (dollar Bear). this is the story you should be telling. currency is the biggest market in the world. If the markets are moving different than the currency markets wsomething funny likely going on. Next you look at bond market. Well treasuries acting as if there should be a market sell off, but s&P still going up. This is funny event 2. you think the big boys don't position themselves (big treasury buyer before they sell off.
I will also tell you I wonder if we are still going to see multiple loss days, with the algo's if we drop it's all going to be channel, and only if they let it. they control the up and the down.
these are the events that allow me to say without a doubt the us market is the most manipulated in the world. It's worse now because their asre less hedge funds and investment banks!!!
LOOK AT HOW SMART i AM. i HAVE TIED ALL THE MARKETS TOGETHER IN ONE ESY TO UNDERSTAND STORY. YOU CAN'T WRITE AN ARTICLE IF YOU DON'T WANT TO UNDERSTAND THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MARKETS AND WANT TO READ THEM. uNTIL GOLDMAN WANTS TO DROP THE MARKET IT WON'T HAPPEN. PERIOD
u willie need 2 use a smell chkr... u no a pruf reeder
Give a guy a break; hard to focus after 12.
Funny, it makes sense anyway.
Here's your reward.
http://cid-9f33f6e14912f497.skydrive.live.com/self.aspx/Illuminati%20NWO...
Now if ben bernanke had 1/2 a brain he'd have raised interest rates before the market got to the point it has. also clue to over sold markets is PTTDX pimco total retun fun. it never stays above 11.00
Other clues I have been looking at we GE, and ifgl.
If you look at the MACD indicator markets whould s&P been moving down since may. that is when sds started moving the other way. on a weekly basis it bacame postative on 10/2/09. markets should have been moving down a long while now!!!
and we get a 1:45pm pump job.
expect the 3:30-4pm hand job.
Where is the line for the 3:30pm hand job?
1,129.25.. And the Fed fire brigade rushes in! Ouch.. They almost got it too late connecting the hose to the liquidity-pump outlet!
Beautiful. It seems that for a change today's 1-2-3 might be down, flat, down. It would make a lot of sense. For the gang, I mean. Which is the one and only factor that matters until the markets put an end to the idiocy.
Hmmm...another pathetic attempt at a sell-off. The pump job is proceeding at full force, and I fully expect they will gun the futures tonight. Tomorrow will be up on some random piece of worthless info. This is getting really old.
They are just trying to lure in the shorts so they can squeeze more $$$ out of them.
Really old. However, they're still getting some bears who'd be willing to play along. Who in his right mind will be willing to do it when the market has shown time again and again that it's being controlled by the not-so-invisible hand of gov't price managers?
Or who has this much money to lose?
I apologize for what looks like a conspiracy theory, but maybe it's Ben and Tim who are dressing as bears, trying to help the TBTF to dig their way out of the grave they had dug for themselves?