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S&P Closes Green Even As S&P (And Nasdaq) Cumulative TICK Closes Well Into The Red
Even as the S&P closed modestly positive, there is yet another indicator added to all the other "massively overbought" technical signs we have discussed recently: namely the cumulative TICK. As can be seen on the charts below, both the S&P and the Nasdaq's cumulative TICK readings closed at the lows of the past several days, despite the fact that stocks once again rose to 2010 highs, while the Nasdaq hit 3 year high levels. For those who need a quick refresher course on what the TICK indicator shows, here is a great rehash by Brett Steenbarger. So how does explain this very apparent divergence between underlying buying, or as the case may be, selling pressure, and actual price dynamics? We wish we could tell you. At this point, with no volume, little volatility, stock markets are increasingly the plaything of those who continue to dabble in vol and other Greek letters. It is merely another indication that contrary to actual bid/offer interest, the market continues to do what the marginal market maker decides. In a normal world, we would claim there is some risk for a substantial reversion to the mean. However, for that to happen it would require at least some participation by trading interests which are not aligned with that of the Fed. And at last check, and following an endless equity fund stream of outflows, such did not exist.
Below is the Nasdaq TICK chart: it certainly does not support a tech stock market which is at its highest since 2007.
And here are the cum TICKs for the S&P and Nasdaq over the past few days.
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So this is the first it ever has happened? It was like this before the Tech Bubble crashed? It was like this in late 2007? Are these indicators "just noise" to paint a euphoric/bearish picture? I am not downplaying your post but rather want to understand the validitiy of these "indicators" just like the Black Cross and Hindenburg Omen.
Maybe the indexes are an illusion. Maybe life is an illusion. Im going to check myself to see if i am an illusion. Be right back
From The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams:
"Fast Money" boys are going to have on some "experts" that say the market has topped, based on the price action of AAPL.
Furthermore, Doug Kass will also be on to say that gold is going to get crushed.
Stock and gold bulls just got some good news.....both are going higher based on the heroic record of these top-picking Fast Money shills....
"The VIX is at multi-year lows!"
"'Chiner' is going to raise the RRR any day now!!"
"You just gotta buy some protection!"
RainbowTrader once again with his veiled assertions that all is well everythings different THIS time from all previous bubble markets and from now on we'll just print and pump $15 billion into the empty markets daily and thats really quite a good way to 'make money', and its also totaly without risk at all.
Good luck with that, you'll need it quite soon.
+1
EEM is going to get slammed tomorrow.
uh, the vix actually is at multi year lows and is in fact probably the only inexpensive asset in any market on this planet
Very strong earnings report out of Adobe and Jabil. Looks like tech should continue onward with a flurry.
take down the American flag...feg.
Black Swan Of Massive Proportions Awaits U(S)!
POMO, it has become all to clear, will do nothing, can't do nothing to stop it!
His Benjiness is also powerless, this isn't his game, its someone else's!
POMO is nothing but a circle jerk, Q/E is a widely known joke and no ones laughing...only a matter of time now before the FED pulls the rug out.
Two (non Ivy-League) economists weigh in on the issue:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoekaAkVlWg
Sadly it about sums up the entire US economy.
I always love watching those old Paulson & Geithner episodes. Thanks!
Thanks, that was great.
Not to worry - two more POMOs tomorrow. Oh, and since the market went up in prior Decenbers (Santa Claus rally), it "must" go up this year --- right??!?
You can't take a daily tick chart and make any correlations in larger moves. The tick stayed in a normal range. (800,-800) and between (400, -400) most of the day. Totally normal for a tight ranging market. Nothing to see here. Move along.
Youre right there is nothing to see here...dead empty market controlled by 3 or 4 people. Yet the majority of americans are lulled into complacency like Hindu cows. Theyll all be carved into steaks real soon.
Bernanke's latest interview:
http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQGDgdCsqdgSXLbW03k2GSuJv_1HlPEa...
I think a correction in equities will have to wait until volume moves from negligible to anemic in Januray next year . Probability seems extremely high to me based on an aggregate of factors :
Vix at multi year lows .
Bullish sentiment at extremes .
Equities overvalued .
Equities overbought .
Severe macroeconomic threats still hovering .
As I see it investors are either overlooking or severely underestimating the solvency crisis in Europe , the dire fiscal/economic state of the US/Japan and the fact that China is actively attempting to curve inflation which in turn will impact on growth .
By 'investors' I assume you mean Bernank and Sack?
Indeed . Given the volume in these pre-holiday markets I'd imagine Bernanke and Sack make up 2 of the total 5 people currently trading . I'd be beyond caring about the inexorable rise of equities if it weren't for one thing :
I trade FX , and the stubborn advance of the S&P is really fucking up my analysis/trading for highly correlated pairs like AUD/USD ( which on a PPP basis is very much overvalued ) . Ugh , last few months have been quite frustrating in that regard .
Fo sho......Each morning B and S call each other to pick the daily numbers.
looks like they traded places on platinum
http://www.kitco.com/charts/liveplatinum.html
B and S
Would that be Bull & Shit..........
Thx .. 4 the translation .. hehe
I don't think the VIX is a "multi-year" lows. Check out the VIX chart circa late 2005 through early 2007. It can go lower.
2008-2010 could be considered multi years LOL
I see that tick chart a bit different, The ticks above the zero line vs the ticks below. The down tick just reached the 500 line only a few times and most down ticks just at the 100-300 line. That says weak selling pressure.
Now on the up tick it looks as there was a 1000 tick and throughout the day the up tick was greater than the down.
Just draw a line across the zero mark, clearly more buying pressure... The people with the money are supporting the markets.
By 'the people with the money' I assume you mean The Bernank and Sack?
Is anyone actually getting their calculators out and 'checking' that these averages, DOW 30, S&P500, et al actually add up to their current values based on the weightings of their components? Is there any auditing oversight here?
Looks like a ripe possibility of even more lies and manipulation if there is little or no oversight/audit here. Well, anyone know?
Armageddon approches!
In a new Chevy Volt, no less. Your tax money at work.
sunny
Speaking of obtuse indicators that allow for us to OD on hopium, Denninger is reporting another confirmed Hindenberg Omen Dec. 14 and 15. I've heard no one mention it, have we all given up on that one??
sunny
In the next 45 days...kaboom
You didn't think they would spoil Christmas a.k.a. Last chance to take the lemmings money did you?
After the second week of January the our Masters will lower the kaboom on their debt slaves known as Americans...
NY PPT flash crashin' the 'ish outta PMs. Compare platinum now and silver earlier today.
After hours PPT selling SLW buying NFLX, wtf?
I see only conflicting info as to what indicates a confirmed Hindenburg Omen and what doesn't and how long it is active for prior to a crash etc. The last I remember a few happened in August right before the markets levitated following Ben's Jackson's Hole Speech.
The United States is a PROPOGANDA MACHINE. Find out how they plan to CENSOR the INTERNET and THREATEN AMERICAN FREEDOM.
Please watch the video “FEAR = CONTROL *Internet Censorship and Global War Looms” at (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLwQstnk6tw).
-Anonymous
Wow, this is truly scary and absolutely real consequence of the financial collapse of 2008. What can we do to stop it??
Maybe you can put a 3y NYSE tick with the SPY overlay, Now that would be neato...
We are seeing substantive order flow selling momentum in ES on a multi-day basis.
http://algofutures.com/wow-indices/wow-index-sp-500/swing-trading-chart/
We think that changes in order flow precede changes in price.
This bears monitoring.
Why we keep talking about it after such a broad consensus?
The conclusion has been reached long ago:
Buy the fucking dip.
Buy the fucking double dip.
Every POMO day. hehe
All these indicators are just a tool. I gave up following them. The VIX a complete joke once it became tradable. Gaps up every Monday when the stock indexes are in an uptrend. After ten years of following the index futures I can tell you price action is all that really matters to traders.
I'm not sure how just from that you come to conclusion that it's an oversold condition.
If sellers are testing where the buyers are willing to stop buying, they will simply keep selling at higher levels and try to see where buyers are no longer interested.
I think we can drop much according to VIX.
picture http://amadey-mf.livejournal.com/1185.html
only question is timing