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S&P Rally Ending With Exact Same Topping Pattern As Feb-April 2010 Rally Which Ended In Collapse
As we've been noting over the past several weeks (Click here for last week's warning posted on ZeroHedge) this rally bears a striking resemblance to the Feb-April 2010 rally and as we've been predicting we believed it would top out and end in the exact same fashion.
Note in April 2010 just before collapse we saw the S&P begin breaking below the 10-day EMA on an intraday basis for the first time in weeks (first sign of weakening uptrend), we then saw another push higher followed by a test of the 20-day EMA, and finally another push to new highs followed by a complete breakdown off those highs (note in April of 2010 focus was on DOW 11,000/S&P 1200 here it is DOW 12,000/S&P 1300).
The exact same pattern has formed here in January 2011, and we believe there is no reason we can not see the same type of collapse in equities as the internals of this rally are precisely the same: widespread overowned sectors with prices over the past several weeks being solely driven by a single Fed buy program (no real demand simply a single artificial bid) and extremely high levels of complacency with little to no buying of protection as longs had become convinced that stock prices could not decline as long as Fed continued backstopping equities.
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Terra-Firma
"Don't waste my time?" Really? To this casual observer it looks like you've got lots of time to spare.
Well a lot of people can say it, but few take the positions in the open market to prove their theories. I have. This is not easy to spot because you have had such pumping by the FED. It has been unprecedented and so it is essentially uncharterd territory. If it were simply up to historical technical patterns it woul dhave plummeted a long time ago. Fundamentals be hanged as long as the markets rises people will believe was the FED and is the FED philosophy. It will pad corporate profits and corporations will begin to higher workers again. This has not happened but the public finally did start to believe that the markets cannot correct now with the FED covering your back and this is where the FED will now understand the meaning of how buyer and seller meet in open market. Now it pays to be short as the retailers head to the markets. This is how price collapses when you have all buyers and NO sellers. It is how every bubble pops and why every price eventually rises.
Cheers Terra... i'm going to hold you (maybe haunt you!) to that :)
If you use freestockcharts on a one minute bar chart with a volume indicated you can see the FED's buying pulses as they push the market up. Unbelievable.
You don't say...
Good volume down day. Clear the decks for a 250 point charge tomorrow. I hope.
Last I checked, tomorrow is Saturday. Let's see if the Suez Canal is open on Monday. If not, I'll see your 250 & raise you minus 500.
Last I checked, tomorrow is Saturday. Let's see if the Suez Canal is open on Monday. If not, I'll see your 250 & raise you minus 500.
What markets are you trading tomorrow? Better get that brain de-frosted.
It's NOT too late to dump everything. The action on the IWM is desperate going into the close.
"desperate" I like that word coz i'm short the S&P... what's your view, correction or just a blip?
65K people and so may jobs. How many takers? Right. All bluster.
We in North America have to hustle harder, think clearer, work smarter and equip our children with the best we can so they can lay the foundations for a better future. For as the computer is to the pen; and look at what the pen spawned. So to is genetic programming to computer programming for example. We have only begun to explore our possibilities, and all the money to be made while doing it.
I look forward to the future knowing it is going to be much better then the past. Slavery anyone? and that what we are experiencing, is simply a transition of societal values from the old to the young and the turmoil and change it brings.
Times of change are times of opportunity!
Here's the thing to remember about patterns-humans are programmed to detect them whether they exist or not. Throw in cognitive bias and price anchoring and those are the only predictably irrational parts of human behavior. Finally, don't confuse correlation with causation-even scientists (like climate scientists) do this all the time. Reversion to the mean is the only thing you can count on-don't be fooled by random fluctuations in any non-linear system-like climate or capital markets.
+1
hey, I like some of the articles you post on the site, but having just searched the siTE i SEE NO MENTION of the analysis before today on zero hedge. So money talks BS walks. no good doing it after the fact!!!!
so unless you called the top in a number like nic lenor, faber the other day on TV, myself on this site with the speed lines, nasfala (mentioned shorting at 1300.
Here you go posted on ZeroHedge last week predicting the top:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/current-rally-mirror-image-february-apr...
My leveraged ETF indicator looks almost identical to the april top as well. It's been showing a bearish trend that started back around the end of december and has now gone on longer than the divergence that showed up in april.
Funny thing the market, being irrational it often does what it shouldn't. History provides context, but does not necessarily repeat itself. And now we have QE(n) to keep the market going up forever.
NFLX at new all time highs....btfdyfi
+1
I agree. The US is purposefully destabilizing mismanaged countries through induced global inflation. If you don't take care of your own. You will be killed or removed from office is what Obama is facing and making all other nations face. Reality bitches.
Ahhh central planning, love the stuff, always makes countries and the world a better place right?
And you-ve got a handle on reality right? I mean the alternative to The Fed inflating is a "war". Reality-check Bitchez, 2 already on the go!!
The policy alternative we have to your not fighting The Fed is we go fuck The Fed. I did, shorted Euro/Dollar a week before QE2 and I won.
And I'll bet against The Fed and any centrally planned anything because they-re all arseholes who haven't a clue what they're doing. Govt is rammed with them, but you didn't notice that either right!
There are no binary solutions; its a blend of policy choices; neither right or left. That construct was created for us to simplify the world. Only children see black and white solutions; left or right, centrally planned or Tea Party free. I agree with you there is money to be made betting against the FED, as you have; and, there is money to be made going with the FED. My point is simply that the world is simply to complex and interconnected for any central planning. There is no central planning. There is only money; and the people who have it, and those that want it. Which do you want to be? Forget left or right. It's irrelevant. It's the money.
2 minutes ago you couldn't see there were 2 wars on.
Now you're saying there's no central planning, only money. Gee isn't there a central committee with a monopoly on the money supply called The Fed?
These are not wars. Skirmishes maybe; but not wars. War is an altogether different animal which nobody wants to see happen. EVER!
Not a bright pussy anarchist I see. Don't waste my time.
Its almost developing a pennant.isnt it? We need.a mild.correction in everything and have the dollar and long dated treasuries to rise a bit, to give monetary easing addirional time. A mild.corrrection here would be a positive in the long run for mrs rosy scenario.
I don't think the Federal Reserve and their sycophant PDs look at the shape of curves when they decide which bonds to monetize.
You are pussy anarchist to boot. Fuck off! You just want to feel like rebel. You don't know shit until it hits you in the jaw.
Don't you get it folks. The FED will print until it bleeds. Technicals don't matter worth shit. It's all about jobs!
Jobs? What f**king jobs? You must be an Obama Czar or something.
I posted a list of open jobs here where I live. There are 65K people up here, and a shit load of jobs. I don't see any fucks from down south coming here to work. Labour mobility bitches.
And those are just the GOVERNMENT jobs. There are more than three times the number of mining related jobs. Remember there are 65K people up here in the far north.
Maybe they just don't want to live near you.
The Fed didn't stop 2007 and they won't stop this either... in fact you can go back to the 1930's and they were an impotent pile of crap then too
Super Computers and infinite liquidity bitches. Go short and your fucked. I was, and lost a pile. Reversed doubled down and am now way ahead, non-inflation ajusted; and trust the FED to boost your bank account. What would you prefer a war? Grow up!
I'd prefer my children and grandchildren to not be debt slaves, you sick fuck.
If you can manage to pull your lips from The Bernank's jock and take a breath for a moment, I eagerly await your reply.
No problem fuck! but I'm $350K better off. Are you? or your kids? Grow up and take care of your family, your neighbours and your country, and stop wishing for bad things to happen to people.
Your $350k is blood money and it doesn't do shit for your neighbors or country.
Sorry about the format screw up.
Come North to Canada Jobs Jobs Jobs, Three diamond mines, soon to be four. We have BHP, De Beers, Rio Tinto headquarters down the street. Soon to be gold mines......Get the picture? Here is the catch, there are only 65,000 people up here. All these jobs an no people. GO FIGURE!!
Knowledge of Inuit language, communities, culture, land and Inuit Qaujimajatuqangit is
an asset.
Plus, it's cold.
Zero Gov.t: you are right on the money about EW for the past year. Just a trainwreck. But, if EW is finally correct that this is the beginning of the "primary wave 3" down than those 9 months will pay off.
'trainwreck' sums up EW but you'd never know by their self-promotion which is an endless stream of cherry picked self-congratulation bordering on delusion of your near 100% failure rate
We're on wave 1 (according to their ever changing count) if this correction completes. But they've thrown so many charts in the bin last year who knows eh! If you can't pin a wave count to a known historical data set without changing your bloody mind 5 times you've really no chance charting the future..... this ship has no maps and a compass that doesn't know where the f' it is either, if you don't mind Captain Prechter i'll skip this voyage of don't know where we've been, not sure where we are and even less idea where we're going and stay ashore!!!
Bingo. I learned that painful lesson way back in 1995 after reading "At The Crest Of The Tidal Wave" and then watching the "crest" evolve into the greatest bull market in history over the next 5 years.
Good to chat coz Elliott Wave don't let either Club members or Subscribers have a chartroom.... that's because after the total shit of 2010 their chartrooms would be rammed with anger!
EW'ers missed the entire 2010 stock rally and everyone missed Silver blowing up 80% ..Prechters right about deflation, his subscribers haven't made a Cent in 2010 while losing out paying his fees
If they allowed long-suffering customers feedback it just might put a deflationary prick in their hyper-inflationary bubble of how good they think they are. EW RIP
Elliott Wave will be pleased, they've been calling the top for 9 months and been getting it wrong for 9 months!
Broken watch technique, right twice a day, but EW went through 2010 with a 100% failure rate on stocks, Gold and Silver which takes pure genius to not better a drunk monkey throwing a dart at a price chart!
Elliott Wave doesn't work well in rigged markets. Brilliant! Neither does any traditional fundamental or technical analysis. You have to be good at finding patterns of the manipulators and taking advantage of them. Or just be politically connected in DC, have a hot line to the Fed, be named Lloyd or Jamie or Bill.
i don't believe markets can be rigged and nor does EW so enuf excuses already!