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S&P Taking Out Support After Support On Heavy Volume; Next Level: 1,160

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The market is plunging with accelerating volume. This is most assuredly a victory for the bulls, as it provides tremendous double, triple and dodecatuple down opportunities for all those who believe that rosy economic data based on a flawed and soon to be thoroughly disproven theory and assorted 'seasonal adjustments' provides a sufficient due diligence replacement, when the name of the game is merely chasing momentum.

 

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Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:21 | 330831 john_connor
john_connor's picture

Margin call after Margin call.  lol.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:21 | 330832 Franken Stein
Franken Stein's picture

Topy much?

Oh wait! This market is purely liquidity driven and in no way reflects any kind of reality.

BUY THE DIPS!

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:26 | 330848 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

two p's in toppy

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:21 | 330833 Cursive
Cursive's picture

So I guess Harry Wanker should wait to buy at 1160?  No stops, baby.  This the last chance to get in.  Cramerica lives!

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:23 | 330836 ZakuKommander
ZakuKommander's picture

Hmmm.  And we're not seeing blowout volumes, either, on this run to cover.  Algos readjusting?

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:29 | 330861 docj
docj's picture

Completely wild-assed guess: it's an engineered take-down (hence the low volumes, as most retail wasn't in to begin with).  Senate taking up "financial reform" (can't have any of that now, can we?).  And doesn't Turbo Tim have some more "quality" debt to float soon?

Nothing puts the Fear of Goldman into the malfunctioning hearts of our elected quite like  a nice 3% takedown of the SPX.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:44 | 330899 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Let's hope it's an engineered takedown... the alternative is that those damn Fedco ZIRP (TM) blow-out preventers are starting to leak at the seals... better get JPM and GS to activate their algo buying programs...

Fill Baby Fill...

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:54 | 330931 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

+1000 Palins

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:56 | 330938 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The uniquely hilarious perspective of ZerOhead on display today. I loved the trademark (TM) mark after the Fedco ZIRP BOP. Good luck at the patent office.

I've got BP on hold. Could you fabricate one up real quick and fly it down to the gulf like a good sport? We can talk compensation after you're done and it works. Come on, do it for the kids. :>)

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:16 | 330960 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

OK OK... since it's for the kids.

Here's an early prototype I've been working on...

http://lh4.ggpht.com/_RzbVbx_mJ-0/SacpTgr6LZI/AAAAAAAAIno/2eO_9iBEIBg/s8...

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:25 | 330979 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I haven't laughed that hard in ages. :>)

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:53 | 331031 Captain Obviousness
Captain Obviousness's picture

.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:29 | 330987 Hulk
Hulk's picture

LOL, wrong direction ZerOhead, unless you working from the underside!

(which is where I like to work!)

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:41 | 331011 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

LOL

Poor ZerOhead. "I've been down so long it looks like up to me."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stp2hCsOFGY&feature=related

 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:48 | 330920 ZakuKommander
ZakuKommander's picture

Well considered.  As the nice managing director/senior economist at JPM said Monday, senators have "an unnerving ignorance of fundamental principles of market economics," and it will soon be "time for the grownups to step in."  A little Fear goes a long way.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:02 | 331059 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

Agree. Its an engineered take down. Volume nothing like the beginning of the year.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 22:49 | 331936 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

why is that a sign of transience (or whatever)?  the big volume of january did not follow through.  might not the recent move on smaller volume be of more lasting duration?  might not the volume increase as the descent is extended?  was not the volume of this entire (bear market) rally small, yet the amplitude breathtaking?

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:21 | 331091 dchen1
dchen1's picture

sp e-mins traded 2.4mln contracts around 1:20pm, typical volume is half of that this time around..

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:27 | 331107 thewhigs
thewhigs's picture

The volume on down days is more than the volume on up days....not too much confidence there...

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:23 | 330838 JimboJammer
JimboJammer's picture

Somebody  is  selling  Silver  and  Gold  to  cover  a  bad  bet.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:25 | 330843 Tell me lies
Tell me lies's picture

Can't wait to see Robot's dry humpers for the day, if any.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:59 | 331048 mellmeister
mellmeister's picture

Yeah, paging Robo, animal spirits, dryhumpers and spooked wildebeests - this is going to be good today!

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:26 | 330846 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

1175 is max pain as far as closing support goes. We're still right at that level. The market will end substantially higher from these levels. There is a lot of volume on the buy side at this support level.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:30 | 330864 Betty Swallsack
Betty Swallsack's picture

1174 and sliding.  Care to revoke....rescind....jump?

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:37 | 330880 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

No. This area around 1175 is rock solid as evidenced by the slide below then right back to it. As I said, we'll end much higher from here. Fundamentally, there is no reason for a strong sell off. Technically, it's doing exactly what it should. 3-5% pull backs then higher. It's been that way for quite some time now.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:42 | 330897 reading
reading's picture

really, rock solid?  I thought 1187 was max pain?  Regardless, you just sliced through your max pain.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:45 | 330903 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Nope. Been saying all along that 1187 was a strong level of support but max pain was the rock solid support at 1175. You may disagree with my opinions but please just check the facts before putting words in my mouth.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:47 | 330914 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Prediction: like all trolls you will disappear when proven wrong.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:51 | 330926 Prof Gulliver
Prof Gulliver's picture

I love it. Let's all meet here at the corner of Harry and InternetToughGuy at the end of the day and see who's right.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:07 | 331344 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

No. This area around 1175 is rock solid as evidenced by the slide below then right back to it. As I said, we'll end much higher from here.

It closed at 1173 today.  The ending was lower, not "much higher."

FAIL.

Harry: Open mouth, insert foot.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:18 | 331379 pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

Not to Defend Harry, but I would hardly call that Fail.

If there is another sell off tomorrow, you can call Fail.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:27 | 331423 JGus
JGus's picture

Harry said, "We'll end much higher from here (1175)." We did, in fact, finish lower, NOT "much higher". How is that not a FAIL?

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 20:50 | 331822 pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

lower by 2 points? Dude, please.  Granted that isn't 'much higher' but it does show that 1175 was support.  Link made it sound like the bottom was going to fall out.

Wed, 05/05/2010 - 10:15 | 332485 JGus
JGus's picture

Okay, can we say FAIL now? Dropped down to 1158 this morning. I would count that as much LOWER than 1175.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:49 | 330921 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Harry, did you manage to buy the S&P dip at 1171?  Now we're partying, major rally underway, we're back to 1175 already!

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:03 | 330937 Simon Jester
Simon Jester's picture

Keep up the good work Baghdad! Still living in your dad's basement? (not that that is a bad thing)

I'm almost convinced I know you from another forum. If so, you've been wrong every single step of the way with your TA. TA is dead, son, Zed's dead.

You have a somewhat sound mind, just misguided and blinded by the big money dreams of your father. Those dreams will ruin you.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:21 | 330970 pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

I think it is important to have educated contrarian opinions to help protect the site from group think.  1175 it is.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:50 | 331025 reading
reading's picture

A few HW classics from the last week...good thing I kept my own copy as it looks like you tried to re-write history on the third comment...don't worry though I had the original handy.

by HarryWanger

on Tue, 04/27/2010 - 13:24

#319899

 

Thanks. I think part of the problem here is people get fixated on a topic like Greece and overlook the strength that's coming in earnings. When 3M reports such a strong Q and raises guidance, it tells you something about global growth and demand. Why people over look that, I don't know. 

Also, the psychology of the market has been to buy dips. As I type, we're zooming higher off the lows and almost back to 1200. A close above 1200 will once again put a dagger in the heart of all shorts.

 

by HarryWanger

on Tue, 04/27/2010 - 11:24

#319703

 

Yes, you will see a volume surge buying anywhere near 1200 SPX. This has been established as very strong support. It's a very easy market to trade on these dips.

reply **JUNK** (5) 

 

by HarryWanger

on Tue, 04/27/2010 - 12:25

#319757

 

1187 is maximum pain. And yes, I am buying - AAPL in particular.

reply flag as junk (1) 

 

 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:46 | 331137 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

So why does that jackhole keep posting here, now that he's been thoroughly disproven?

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:05 | 331157 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room or blog, with the primary intent of provoking other users into a desired emotional response[1] or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:09 | 331350 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

Fascinating.  You're probably right, Richard, but he seems to so convincingly spout his nonsense, and does it with such a sense of absolute certainty that I can't help but believe that the guy actually believes the nonsense he's spouting.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:58 | 331047 BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

The price is wrong BIATCH! haha!

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 15:31 | 331292 Betty Swallsack
Betty Swallsack's picture

Hmmm, 1173 and there is 1/2 hour left in the trading day. 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:20 | 331090 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Don't forget to use vaseline, Harry, if 1175 is max pain.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:28 | 330852 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

What's the bloomberg terminal say about who's buying SPY's?

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:28 | 330853 truont
truont's picture

"Sell in May; go away"

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:28 | 330854 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"....when the name of the game is merely chasing momentum."

In my second year of binge drinking along with a few classes, there was this exchange student from Sweden who shortened her very hard to pronounce name to "Momo". I and about 499 other males were always chasing that blond haired blued eyed Momo all over the place. 499 of us got no where and only one (the "one") was selected for closer inspection by Momo.

I think the momo market chasers are about to get dumped as quickly as I and the other 498 were. 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:40 | 330887 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Do you have her number? I'm feeling lucky, my market bets are starting to really gain "momentum".

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:50 | 330922 I need more asshats
I need more asshats's picture

Marla is a far cry from a hot Swedish blond but I call her The One. The Dictator, The One....

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:28 | 330855 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

dodecatuple i learned something new again.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:29 | 330859 Jack Ryan
Jack Ryan's picture

This is going to be fun to watch, the liquidity spigot will be turned off (except at the bottom of the gulf thanks to BP) and with credit issues in Europe spreading the path of least resistance is no longer straight up.  It's gonna be an ugly summer.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:35 | 330870 JimboJammer
JimboJammer's picture

CNBC   will  put  spin  on  this  and  say  " It  is  a  good  thing "

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:38 | 330882 Rick64
Rick64's picture

Let me guess. "The markets went down today as investors are taking profits."

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:39 | 330884 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

I don't watch CNBC and have no desire to defend them but they are absolutely correct. This is good for the market to have a bit of a technical pull back. It's actually the sign of a very healthy market.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:47 | 330909 reading
reading's picture

Harry, you are seriously sounding like an idiot -- the vix is up 22% as I write this and is up 37% from a week ago and you are talking healthy.  Going straight down at the open is never healthy.  You might argue a correction is due, but the manner it is coming is hardly healthy and even you in your infinite wisdom have no idea if it will stop at 2, 5, 10, 25 or 50% down from here.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:55 | 330936 depression
depression's picture

This volume surge is a sure a sign of capitulation, and right at Harry's support level too.

Hell of a call there Harry.

Harry, some day soon you will have to give us a tutorial on how you come up with these price support numbers. (I know you don't use or need resistance numbers because the market goes up in perpuity and therefore there would never be any possible reason to ever sell or take profits for that matter.)

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:54 | 331037 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

the vix is up 22% as I write this and is up 37% from a week ago

Indeed. Cyan Lite brought up (correctly) the VIX on Friday saying it was not confirming the breakdown. Today, at last, short term resistance has been taken out.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:47 | 330910 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Are you honestly saying that CNBC is "absolutely correct"?  About EVERYTHING?  Or are you referring to particular calls that they are making today?  What the hell are you talking about?

It sounds like you are fully endorsing the absolute worst team of financial analysts that has ever been assembled in the history of the universe.

BUY LEHMAN.  BUY BUY BUY!

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:04 | 330959 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

No. I said they were absolutely correct on saying this is healthy for the market. Technically, it was anticipated and is very healthy.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:01 | 331151 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

this is healthy for the market

"This" ain't over yet.

For my part, I usually like to wait until the plunging stops before encouraging people to "buy on the dips."

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:47 | 330913 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Yeah, like the kind of market we've had since 1996?  Truth is, the Greenspan Put and ZIRP taught a lot of "inwestors" the wrong thing.  Buy and hold is a myth.  Jeremy Siegel can take "Stocks for the Long Run" and shove it.  We just had the Bernanke Put.  It is done.  You and your bulltard ilk are about to get another lesson in reality.  I just hope you keep living in the bubble you love so much.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:47 | 330916 Attitude_Check
Attitude_Check's picture

Yep,

 

you are definitely much more using to read assuming satire!  You are a RIOT!

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:48 | 330917 Great Depressio...
Great Depression Trader's picture

Are you buying at these levels?? Im hoping the market breaks 1100 in the next few weeks. Reason for this is USDX plus 83, more EUR pain, and basically a nice pull back. When Benron announces QE part deux this market will continue to fly. Way too many pensions are tied to this market they cant let it fall again

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:01 | 330952 doggis
doggis's picture

ok people, leave harry be! the whole idea is true debate, and harry is a part of that debate.  mainstream media has been captured by corporate interests, and that is why we are all here supporting ZH. time will reveal the outcome, so in the meantime DEBATE NICE!

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:45 | 331135 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Skip debate. Buy gold and silver.

 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:37 | 330876 derp
derp's picture

Like having a front row seat to a massive implosion. Kinda like this...

http://demos.immersivemedia.com/TexasStadium.php

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:41 | 330890 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Margin call Mr. Mortimer and Duke. Turn the machines back on!!!

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:44 | 330902 augmister
augmister's picture

Premature ejaculation on the end of the run up....we will be erect again and soon.  Shake out some loose hands.   Pull the stick back and punch a hole in the clouds....

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:45 | 330904 been there done that
been there done that's picture

A little humor from Sir Alen Douchescam:

""We run the risk, by laying out the pros and cons of a particular argument, of inducing people to join in on the debate, and in this regard it is possible to lose control of a process that only we fully understand," Greenspan said, according to the transcripts of a March 2004 meeting."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/03/greenspan-wanted-housing_n_5609...

 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:54 | 330932 Rick64
Rick64's picture

He found a flaw in his ideology 4yrs. later. OOps. @ 2:25 in video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ggPHNuEEH8&feature=fvw

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:52 | 330928 sweet ebony diamond
sweet ebony diamond's picture

is this the big baby boomer bonanza?

they have a lifestyle that needs to be maintained.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:58 | 330948 assumptionblindness
assumptionblindness's picture

Tomorrow will just be another short covering 'rally' as traders learn YET AGAIN that shorting this market is NOT allowed.  Heck, we may even have a rally before the market ends TODAY with the Dow fininishing +200 and the S&P up 18.  Nothing surprises me any more when it comes to the actions of the PPT/Fed. 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:59 | 330949 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Good chance the US stock market will start acting like a developing economy.

That's the consequence of a purely liquidity driven rally without deteriorating fundamentals.

Easy come, easy go. 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:03 | 330954 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

+1.  You are darned right.  Perfectly said.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:03 | 330957 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

50 and 200 day m.a. are the key supports. We are not there yet.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:23 | 330972 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

1168 is SPX 50dma. If we were to touch that it'll bounce quickly up to support level of 1175. So yes, 1168 SPX is, in my book, a screaming buy signal.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:26 | 330983 mrek
mrek's picture

Do you hear the screaming yet?

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:34 | 330996 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Bingo! Bounced like a superball off 1168. There's your low.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:51 | 331028 old_turk
old_turk's picture

Nice chart call, Harry.

The junior prop traders reacted to the distress call.

 

However, this is just the first test and remember, resistance, like support in the other direction gets weaker with each test.

And the margin calls continue.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:53 | 331035 Great Depressio...
Great Depression Trader's picture

Lets see if 1168 holds. I say that the next 10 days we trend lower, then bounce from there.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:30 | 331110 mrek
mrek's picture

Hopefully you caught those 7 SNP points. You are going to need them.

Wed, 05/05/2010 - 09:46 | 332405 Brak82
Brak82's picture

broken

Wed, 05/05/2010 - 14:53 | 333050 Rick64
Rick64's picture

Bingo! Just bounced off of resistance 1168 down to 1159. There is your new low. Uh no wait I mean 1158. Oh wait 1157 no, I'll have to get back to you.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:19 | 330967 Tell me lies
Tell me lies's picture

Dennis dickhead Kneale says its all terror related today! Is he there for fag eye candy? Can't think of any other reason.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:25 | 331097 Ignatius J Reilly
Ignatius J Reilly's picture

I saw that too.  Plus the website is passively pushing the bombing story.

I swear, I don't know why I torture myself by watching those idiots.  Do they not know how transparent they are?  But why even ask?

If it weren't for their scroll, I wouldn't watch.

I will only watch w/mute button pushed.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:38 | 331122 Tell me lies
Tell me lies's picture

And they started off with 2 stocks up b4 they got to the ugly. I never watch until blood runs to see the spin. Like my vodka does not do the the trick.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:20 | 330969 Cyan Lite
Cyan Lite's picture

Nearest support is 50sma (116.88 on the SPY).  I'm a buyer at those levels.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:27 | 330985 Lord Peter Pipsqueak
Lord Peter Pipsqueak's picture

Harry,when you are in a hole it definitely pays to stop digging,you are now beginning to sound a little deranged.I hope you get out of your longs before too much damage is done to your personal wealth.

 

 

Sell Mortimer,sell everything!!!

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:36 | 330999 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

All rationalizations begin flying out the window, and gradually go the other way. That happens in a market rally based on high, high hopes rather than traditional valuation metrics. 

This market is exquisitely vulnerable for a number of reasons. The least of it is the phenomenal runup ending. Much more significant is the perception that things could blow up suddenly underfoot due to hidden, concealed or poorly understood interrelations. We may be at the start of the next phase of a financial crisis. As bad as the last one was, on some level, it fit the model of a bad banking crisis. A frightening but somewhat known quantity. This phase of the crisis has the added feature of sovereign debt crises. The consequences and risks are poorly defined let alone quantitated. And that introduces unacceptable uncertainty into markets. The flight to safety in my opinion will be dramatic and shocking. 

 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:41 | 331010 cocoablini
cocoablini's picture

Harry is short term correct maybe. The market is running on overboughts all the way from the Slow Stochastic, RSI, CCIs into the Bollingers for months.
So the technical traders may have a quick chipshot here after we slice through a few supports. The market is unsustainable anywhere north off 9000 anyway. If the government is determined to inflate asset values wayyyy past what they are worth with the current fake accounting, then these corrections can prove to be larger than he thinks.
Price discovery is the most important thing to have in a stock market. If the USG does not allow price discovery, then people are not value buying but just chasing momentum and will dump everything to get off the pyramid scheme and into safety as soon as they can. The 401ks, Pension plans, retirement accounts and Goldman Sachs customers get the hot potato and watch their LONG portfolio value shit a brick while watching Goldman run away out of the flood zone.
Investors like Harry are retreads of the dotcom or the pre 2007 investor. Playing the corrections. The problem is when you are playing stock market in a secular credit contraction. Sometimes thos dips last a lot longer than you think. Also,even if the US were recovering, which it's not, we are in a global economy with bubbles everywhere. the EURO has been in a bubble for 10 years. China is a bubble. One pop and the systemic crash reoccurs all over again. And this time people are a lot smarter and know whats going on. The selling pressure, when the next crash comes will be faster because there are very few longs out there.It's all trading a pickpocketing-not investing

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:48 | 331023 seventree
seventree's picture

WaPo explains it all:

U.S. stocks tumbled Tuesday morning, in part reflecting a lack of confidence that a bailout package tailored for Greece will stop that nation's debt crisis from spreading to other European countries.

Apparently this breaking news flash only just now reached the markets. Tomorrow there will be a new "this time it's different" fix out of Europe; game on again.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:51 | 331029 assumptionblindness
assumptionblindness's picture

I wonder how much it is costing to keep GS from tanking today.  Some folks are working really hard to establish a flight-to-safety paradigm for Goldman... 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:56 | 331043 Sniper
Sniper's picture

WTF IS THIS???

Goldman Sachs: Fox Business News Analyst Charlie Gasparino reporting GS
and SEC are close to a settlement on the subprime charges; says GS
response to the SEC expected soon, maybe even this afternoon; believes a
hefty fine and mgmt changes could possibly be involved  (149.61 +0.11)

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:12 | 331078 Handle with care
Handle with care's picture

This is interesting as the full article talks about a $1 billion fine and some senior management to get fired, possibly even Blankfien himself.

It also discusses "structural changes" related to disclosure. i.e. you can't lie to your clients anymore. That's really going to affect GS's future earnings if they can't lie to clients.

Yet GS is up even today, so somebody seems to believe that $1B is a cheap price and that Blankers isn't as essentially to the company as his bonuses would seem to indicate.

Its also bizzare that GS is up when so many other lawsuits are coming out of the woodwork and the DOJ investigation is still just getting started.

I also think they're underestimating just how quickly politicians are catching on that bashing on GS is worth more votes than the GS campaign contributions can buy

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:27 | 331105 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

For Goldman to move on, Blankfein needs to go, do the vague mea culpa, pay the fine,  and the BOD needs to pick the next CEO from another division of the co (not trading).

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:41 | 331125 Sniper
Sniper's picture

It seemed like something was up when GS was displaying mad relative strength when the S&P was down 2%. Now it looks like it can squeeze the rest of the day.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:25 | 331186 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Collect $13B and give back $1B. Nice deal. Again they show themselves to be master deal makers and rulers of us all. If this really is it AND the criminal probe doesn't turn up anything nothing changes. (my fault for having hope) My last holdout will be the return of updated Glass-Steagall...I'm not holding my breath. :(  

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:27 | 331106 Ignatius J Reilly
Ignatius J Reilly's picture

and in the real world it means nothing since reform (taking away the game) is no where in sight.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:01 | 331055 Whizbang
Whizbang's picture

all technicals put us overbought at 1072, but the market continues upward. Have the churn algos locked in for the day or what? Or have the animal spirits taken hold? I don't even care anymore.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:05 | 331066 reading
reading's picture

simply the mid-day drift.  You have to wait until after lunch to make any determination from here -- don't you think?

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:27 | 331104 Whizbang
Whizbang's picture

yes, after everyone has time to think their move over a couple lunch beers, the drubbing could resume. We'll see though, 168 will provide support unless another piece of bad news comes in today.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:26 | 331100 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

The way I look at it ...

Mutual Fund Monday = up
Tuesday, Wed sell off = down
Thursday stabilize = even, slightly up
Friday runaway algos = up.

That way the can keep screwing the 401k crowd from now till the end of summer

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:30 | 331111 Ignatius J Reilly
Ignatius J Reilly's picture

How long until the boomers decide they don't want to play any longer?  Or is all that "sideline" money theirs... and never to return to the market?

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:17 | 331175 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

The boomers better save that money if they want to keep their air condition and their color tv.

Wed, 05/05/2010 - 00:23 | 332009 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The Boomers, nor most of the others as well, never look at their investment quarterly mailings anyhow.  They just get thrown in a drawer -- if you don't look there is no damage.

A friend asked me the other day what he ought to do.  I told him to cash out, pay the penalties, buy physical metals.  He looked at me like I'd told him to sacrifice his only child.

I gave up.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:03 | 331060 Greater Fool
Greater Fool's picture

Step on up and getcher SPY straddles....

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:04 | 331063 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

The impending USD rally I've warned about since 2009 has arrived.  It may last for some time too ...

MARKET UPDATES:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:25 | 331098 Whizbang
Whizbang's picture

I'm with you. I saw this coming a while back. Just wait until all the dollar shorts get the crap squeezed out of them and it shoots the moon. Deflation is the current problem in this country, not hyperinflation.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:30 | 331195 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Hyperinflation is just deflation with a loss of confidence in the currency.  Any deflation will lead quickly into hyperinflation, as we have already printed the crap out of our currency, and foreigners have little to no confidence in the dollar.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:04 | 331339 Whizbang
Whizbang's picture

other than the fact that they are buying record amounts of them whenever they are issued. The dollar is going to shoot the moon soon.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:10 | 331074 twotraps
twotraps's picture

Seems easier for this thing to break.  I read that 1175 is on the radar, been watching 1165...without some rejection there, I think the game changes.   So far, 4 handle move off the low does not inspire confidence as some kind of major spike rejection low required to lure people back in.  A GS anouncement might do the trick, intra-day spike low and sharp recovery.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:12 | 331076 Young
Young's picture

I would find it more troublesome for the upside if the market starts trending up today. If it just ranges and then collapses at the end, we will probably have a rally up tomorrow followed by more slaughter. I also wonder what you guys in the top of this thread was talking about when you said "it's a low volume sellof" and "the volume is higher on the ups". Are you sitting on online trade platforms without volume figures?

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:32 | 331116 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Are you sitting on online trade platforms without volume figures?"

They are sitting on the throne in the bathroom and lost their (wireless) market feed. But thankfully not the ZH feed.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:34 | 331119 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

This is my handy dandy little chart that I use to see if the algos are buying or selling. Nothing uber scientific, but I hope it helps.

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&c...

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:43 | 331130 anony
anony's picture

Goldamn Sucks is up 2.40 in a minus 30 SPX market.

 

'smazing.

 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:44 | 331133 Psquared
Psquared's picture

So far, Harry seems to be right, but we have a long way to go before 4 pm. If we close at this level (1170-1174) there will be a technical bounce tomorrow, but my thinking is it won't break what has become a short term downtrend -- that threatens to become intermediate.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:56 | 331147 Truth
Truth's picture

Here's the next short term blow to the market:

http://www.nationalenquirer.com/reports_obama_cheating_scandal_vera_bake...

 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:04 | 331154 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

Considering that he was accused during the primaries by some guy of being bi and into crack, Vera is a step up. Makes him look more wholesome.

Market up. BUY BUY BUY

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:31 | 331194 Not For Reuse
Not For Reuse's picture

LOL, check out the latest wikiwhitewash effort; Vera's little stub of an article (which mentions nothing about Obama, BTW) is now flagged for DELETION.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vera_Baker

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:59 | 331150 gridlock
gridlock's picture

Sorry to piss on the parade, but a bit of cynicism goes a long way in this market. Goldman are trying to settle with the SEC today, and are just showing what they can do to the market if they wanted; and if they disclose all the government mandated algos on trial, hehe...

 

Europe is just an excuse, it's been shrugged off and on how many times already?! Just when Timmy announced borrowing this quarter will be "revised" +$71 bln.

 

dog and pony, dog and pony - GS up 1.48% already with everyone else hurting...resistances don't matter much, it's all politics now...hope I'm wrong, but by next weekend we'll be bracing for the new highs :-)  

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:35 | 331166 MatrixSurfer
MatrixSurfer's picture

Ok, I vote we help Harry, thus racking up some Karma points.  Those of us with a modicum of TA (not the other kind) understand the cruel vagaries of simply trading 50ma crossovers. Now, maybe he is good at not getting whipsawed, but the strategy using SPY as a proxy (from etfreplay.com) from 2000 to present, showed a net loss of -11.1%  over that period.  Oh crap, never mind, I forgot that Harry factors 'great economic news' into the trading strategy, and I couldn't find a way to quantify that.  Oh well.... 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:11 | 331167 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

210 pm and S&P at 1173. Harry is on it so far.

King Dollar holds/ascends as euro descends.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:11 | 331169 Boston Wealth
Boston Wealth's picture

Agree with Tyler!

ES bounced perfectly off the Daily 50 MA. There is one other target/support that is nearby and could be the bottom for this W3 if we have one more dip down, and that is the 38.2% retracement level at 1164.35.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 15:34 | 331283 depression
depression's picture

First touch of the 50 day MA has a very high probability of holding. If we don't see at least a good strong 50% retrace (of today's range) back up off this 50 day MA touch, then something is wrong. Worst case scenario for Harry and his dip buying colleagues would be if we get a weak low vollume bounce here, drift around the day's lows on light volume, then gap across the support line to the downside on heavy volume (ie. a breakaway gap).

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:19 | 331178 Modus
Modus's picture

although im bearish as well i would agree with harry that 1175 -1168 is massive support and could hold at the close. and this is what matters, the close!!!

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:25 | 331185 Psquared
Psquared's picture

the emperor has no close

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:35 | 331204 wiggles
wiggles's picture

well it kinda smells engineered, but who knows....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0VwFq3-UI0&feature=related

 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:46 | 331217 Brett in Manhattan
Brett in Manhattan's picture

It's so funny to hear the market gurus here and elsewhere make predictions as though they're fact, when those predictions are based on a wild guess.

"It's Goldman showing the SEC what they can do to the market" lmao!

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:57 | 331233 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The VIX spike was NASTY!  Not for a while has the following spike been that much larger than the precursor.  What is in store????

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:30 | 331434 Psquared
Psquared's picture

Futures down 215 for Wednesday. (acc. to Bloomberg)

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