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S&P Update
Submitted by Nic Lenoir of ICAP
Overnight 1,135 was a relatively obvious resistance on the bounce. We briefly traded through on the NFP release but it remains resistance hee. Technically my preference we remain to the downside as the wave pattern is not complete and there was no divergence on the lows in terms of momentum. 1,113 is the support to obsrve on the day, and on a break there is a risk of retesting the lows and the medium term support at 1,040 which will be key. All eyes on 1,135 and 1,113 for now.
As discussed in our update last night, today's number comes in a context where the market has much bigger fish to fry with the ongoing debacle in Europe. It has been our contention that FX swaps would be re-introduced between the Fed and foreign central banks all week and it seems I have been joined by other analysts. It is the somewhat obvious easy to implement and tested measure to stop the dollar funding shortage. I don't think it solves anything with respect to the pressure on sovereign bonds however. Remember as soon as Merkel talked about assisted defaults within the Eurozone Tuesday morning the positive effect of the IMF/ECB Greece bailout dissipated very quickly. In my humble opinion the situation has deteriorated enough that the market understands this is simply kicking the can down the road, and it doesn't solve anything about the other PIIGS.
As a side note I keep favoring massively Ireland in the bunch because it is the only country that has showed so far it can tolerate austerity without turning itself upside down.
Good luck trading,
Nic
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But, wait, Harry Wanger said that 1175 was Max Pain and that we'd bounce up from there! Harry??
Wanger goes by 'Clean Shaven' Wanger these days.
When they said, 'haircut', they meant haircut.
:0)
Honestly, who cares what Harry thinks now? It's pretty evident after the market dump this week that he's a gambler who confused his luck with skill. He reminds me of those tools in Vegas who think "I'M THE MAN" when they hit beat the blackjack dealer 5 times in a row and brags to all his friends that he won X amount that night because he was a GREAT player. However, he's also the same guy the next day who will never tell you how much he lost the day after (which is usually what he won + a good amount of his own cash). His silence speaks volumes of his supposed "skill" - not to mention his gutlessness. At least Leo provides insight on why he picks what he picks - but Harry just puts on his blindfold and throw darts at the wall, hoping to hit a bulls-eye.
Lore states that not much can eat a Troll, but HF trading seems to have done it.
"As a side note I keep favoring massively Ireland in the bunch because it is the only country that has showed so far it can tolerate austerity without turning itself upside down."
The Irish ability to endure hardship is well established....
Two things: 1) The Irish have endured that hardship at the hands of Once-Great Britain 2) The Irish can be one of the most violent and there is nothing on the face of this Earth more terrifying than a pissed-off Irishman.
Or nothing more fun than an irishman on the piss.
Looks like ZH needs to expand its server park :) More and more people want the real news, and ZH is one of the few places where you can get it.
+100tb
I wonder how the real estate recovery in Florida will do once the oil starts to hit the beaches.
+50%?
Commercial real estate will also do pretty good with tourists fully booking everything and business booming and all... :)
just a post to check if it goes through, since my 3 attempts to post on top thread failed to show, and its not the captha...it just doesn't show. i get a blank page when complete
[[[ was tring to post this as a reply to QTrader's post in above, top thread ]]]
QT:
""""I was long the May 120 SPY puts going into yesterday. When Dow was off about 900 tried to sell and 1) IB wasn't taking orders and 2) the bid on the options was 6 and the offer was 12""""
me:
I haven't had the chance yet to read many posts so far, and glad to find yours. There is something I wanted to post about, and wanted to ask who else may have experienced any other "coincidental" anomalies at the exact same time this [ whatever it can be called ] was happening
Maybe ZH can open a Thread for others who may have experienced similar anomalies that occurred at the same time.
Like you, I too had some Options I wanted to Trade and lock-in some Gains. I wanted to Sell to Close about Half the CALLS I have on TZA and DRV. When DRV was showing a Gain of 25%+ I went to put my Order in. I was going to next do the same with TZA [ Sell to Close, about Half the Options I Hold, and lock-in those gains ]
I was in my ETrade account and Etrade was Not working correctly
I couldn't get an order in..the page wouldn't Open, and I made another attempt and I got another failure to make the Order. The Gains I should have gotten on winning trades couldn't go through.
But there's more, the reception on my TV for CNBC went bad. I was getting an off & on with the audio, like a few words and then off, and the overall reception on both audio & video was so poor it couldn't be followed. This never happened before, and I checked the other channels and they were fine....so it wasn't Comcast "in general", it was just on CNBC's reception [ I can't get Bloomberg on this TV ]
So, my point is the "coincidental", never happened before, anomalies. Anyone else have this or something similar. I could add that I noticed that some attempts to view the message boards on some stocks on Yahoo wouldn't open, but this has happened before. The above two never did, and I noticed that CNBC went back to having normal reception on my TV after the Close. Maybe everyone's accounts should be reset to way they stood on Wed's Close, erase yesterday.
I went to Youtube to see what I could find, if anything, very early yesterday and I found this one that got uploaded quickly. BTW, let's not forget all that was going on yesterday, who was being questioned in Congress, Sanders alone makes you wonder if somebody wanted to fire a warning shot to "don't look at us, or else":
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4s5qZxWrJQo
This one below points out some real eye-openers:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8g3ZktuPo0&annotation_id=annotation_9370...
1,112 @10:22am... Look out below...
Meanwhile, looking up, the ash cloud has started growing again: Vodafone.is - Volcano in Iceland webcam (Eyjafjallajökull)
sweet fancy moses
I hooked up my new 46" flat panel last night and am watching CNLSD talking heads discuss ZH topics two days late in all their glory while rejoicing in my inverse short ETF funds blowing up. Its beautiful on all fronts.
Huge swings in my feeds.... HFT kicking in again. See moves in like the DOW index of 70pts.
hindenberg omen has been confirmed....put on your seatbelts ladies and germs - it will be spectacular.
Where is HARRY "max pain at 1175" WANGER? I want my imminent "bounce bank", Wanger. You promised it and I want it now.
I got a feeling we're going to retest those "glitch" lows of 1065 from yesterday. Maybe not today, but maybe in the next week. I will go long then. It matches a long-term trend line from the 1920s.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83805359164&a=184607634
Posted May 1st - a week before the crash.
'11,250 / 300 is an area of significant resistance and if this level can’t be breached it should signal the end of the March 2009 bear market rally - the weekly DOW chart shows an expanding wedge indicating a significant move is probable - this remains an overbought bear market rally and the uptrend could falter at any time - the VIX index continues to give bullish warnings which is bearish for equities - long term charts of key equity indexes continue to give bearish warnings and the March 2009 lows will be breached in my opinion - USD Index bullish warnings since 2009 on the weekly and monthly chart have not changed and further USD strength and thus EURO weakness is still expected '
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com