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Spain To Bail Out Cajas, More Billions In Taxpayer-Funded Risk Transfer

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The 2011 edition of European bail outs has begun. The WSJ has just announced that the Spanish government is about to inject a fresh round of billions of euros into its insolvent savings banks (cajas) sector. This is not at all surprising. Back in July 2010, Zero Hedge penned the following article, "The Ticking Time Bomb That Are The Spanish Cajas" which predicted just this development, and it is troubling that it has taken the country this long to acknowledge just how bad things are. We can only speculate that in the meantime the fundamentals have deteriorated materially. Bottom line: Europe is getting tired of kicking the can and may be forced to come to grips with reality far sooner than Ben Bernanke hoped. As for the question where all this bailout money is coming from... it is better left unasked.

The Ticking Time Bomb That Are The Spanish Cajas, Zero Hedge, July 5, 2010

Even with Spain's Cajas, or savings banks, completing the country's
most aggressive sector restructuring in history, after nearly 90%, or 39 out of 45 merged or
participated in some form of "cold fusion" and benefiting from the
financial assistance of the Spanish central bank, there has been
precious little written about the actual holdings of this most
aggressive lender of mortgage to Spain's 20% unemployed population.
Until today: a new report by CreditSights' David Watts indicates that
investor worries about the Spanish banking system are very well founded
and likely underestimate just how bad the true situation actually is. In
"Spanish RMBS: Insider Caja Loan Books", Watts concludes that the Cajas
are likely hiding losses on home loans by taking
non-performing mortgages out of securitized pools. Absent this
unsymmetrical onboarding of risk, the overall deterioration of the
broader pool would have become ineligible as collateral in ECB refi
operations. In essence, Watts says, "by buying the loans out of the mortgage pool, the cajas would be taking those weaker loans onto their own books."
This implies that the 3.7% serious delinquency rate reported by the
cajas is in reality far higher, and likely "underestimates their
potential losses." And what's worst: as ever more delinquencies mount
courtesy of austerity, and the Cajas run out of cash to constantly buy
up the weakest performing loans, all of Spain is about to lose ECB
collateral access to its hundreds of billions in securitized RMBS,
completely locking the country out of any access to liquidity, even that
of the ultimate backstop, the European Central Bank.

Spain's
cajas are notoriously secretive about the state of their loan books.
Which is why CreditSights took a bottoms-up approach, looking at a
sample of 143 Spanish residential mortgage-backed
securities collateralized by 136 billion euros ($170 billion) of loans,
of which 45% was originated by cajas.

In
an attempt to better understand the stresses that Spanish mortgages are
under, we use Spanish RMBS investor reports to assess loan performance

and compare how Caja-originated loans compare to those extended by the
larger, more-diversified Spanish commercial banks such as BBVA and
Santander. The performance of mortgages within caja-securitisations is noticeably weaker than for Spain's commercial banks.

As
CreditSights points out, the outstanding balance of securitized Spanish
resi mortgages is estimated to have reached €168 billion, representing
15.3% of all mortgage lending in the country. Yet taking advantage of
ECB generosity to take on all sorts of worthless assets on the left side
of the ledger supporting the euro, "even with investors globally taking
a much more sceptical approach to RMBS following the US subprime
crisis, issuance of RMBS in the Spanish market has remained relatively
strong as issuers have retained deals primarily to use as collateral against ECB open-market operations."
In essence, the ker structural difference between the US and Europe can
be summarized in the previous sentence: while US banks were at least
smart enough to know they need to offboard RMBS associated risk to even
dumber investors, in Europe, it was the ECB which for many years running
was the backstop, thus preventing the need for prudent risk management.
The end result: the collapse of the Spanish deposit savings system.

The
chart below shows the dramatic surge in RMBS retention at about the
time the subprime market in the US blew up. The primary "beneficiary" of
this stupidity - the cajas.

As
to the reason why the cajas are avoided like the plague by virtually
everyone, the chart below says it all: while everyone was enjoying the
credit fuelled binge on the way up (very much as the US was), the
reversion has yet to catch up with reality. The truth is that even as
the quarterly change in lending has plunged, the property price index is
massively higher than where it should be currently. Once the benefits
of record low Euribor and other artificial props finally expire, look
for Spanish real estate prices to literally plummet destroying not just
the local banking system, but that of the entire interlinked European
financial system.

And
a quick detour into Spanish CMBS. Watts explains: "As a percentage of
GDP, Spanish household sector has debts of 85% and housing-related debts
equivalent to around 65% of GDP. Indeed, including loans for
residential development (commercial real estate lending), total
housing-sector related lending is equivalent to 104% of GDP, nearly
double where it was in 2003. That means that we estimate that Spanish property developers have debt equivalent to almost 30% of GDP."
This is simply another massive risk overhang that the banks never
offloaded, and has so far flown very successfully beneath the radar. Yet
unlike RMBS, the ECB does not accept CMBS as collateral against refi ops, leading one to scratch their head why the banks were so stupid in this particular case.

CreditSights has this last warning to add on Spanish development loans:

Given
the US experience with development loans and the fact that much of this
developer-related lending was no doubt focused on the worst affected
markets - retirement and vacation properties - we think these loans are
probably performing more poorly than the ordinary residential mortgage
lending that we track within our RMBS sample. As a result, our sample may understate the true scale of problem loans within the Spanish banking sector.

Worried yet?

As
to the actual results of CreditSights broader analysis of , the chart
below summarizes that as the deterioration in Spanish unemployment
accelerated, delinquencies remained somewhat flat, primarily courtesy of
a collapsing Euribor rate. As we have pointed out recently, now that
the LTRO has matured, Euribor and Libor have only one way to go: up.

So
back to the split between caja-originated mortgage versus those issued
by the large banks, Watts confirms that there is a material
underperformance when it comes to Cajas: "the most obvious takeaway is
that mortgages originated by cajas have been running at higher
delinquency levels than mortgages originated by Spain's commercial banks
for at least the part four years." The chart below demonstrates just
how much worse the Cajas books' are, even based on doctored public data,
than banks:

The
key question posed by Watts, and whose answer is truly troubling, is
the following: what is driving the volatility in the caja's mortgage
performance. The explanation offered: "we believe this phenomenon might
be partially explained by the removal of delinquent mortgages from
Spanish RMBS pools by the originating bank during the first and second
quarters of 2009. Mortgage repayments exhibited a dramatic rise during
this period. The average repayment rate on securitised caja-mortgages
rose by 360 bps from 6.7% in the fourth quarter of 2008 to 10.3% in the
first quarter of 2009."

And the punchline that should shut up "all is well in Spain" apologists once and for all:

We
understand that both cajas and Spanish banks have been supporting their
RMBS by buying some delinquent mortgages out of the pool.

Buying mortgages out of the pool will reduce delinquency rates and will
also boost repayment rates - to the RMBS, the loan is considered to have
been refinanced by the caja. Issuers are not obliged to provide such
support to their RMBS transactions but the rise in delinquencies may
have threatened ratings on retained deals, meaning that they would have
become ineligible as collateral in ECB refinancing operations. By buying
the loans out of the mortgage pool, the cajas would be taking those
weaker loans onto their own books. That means that the current
3.7% serious delinquency rate (the orange line on the right-hand chart
above) may flatter the performance of the cajas' mortgage books and
underestimate their potential losses.

CreditSights concludes with a somewhat much somber bigger picture analysis:

A
further decline in interest rates has for the moment allowed the
aggressive levels of leverage not to implode, despite falling Spanish
wages and rising unemployment.
Indeed, Spanish mortgages are
performing only slightly worse than UK prime loans and are performing
considerably better than UK-performing loans.

But behind
those ostensibly reassuring numbers lurk weaker performance in caja loan
books and the prospect of substantially weaker performance on
non-mortgage lending (i.e., loans to property developers). What's more,
if Spanish government austerity packages have knock-on effects for
Spanish household incomes, most obviously as a result of reductions in
public-sector wages, then this level of mortgage indebtedness will
become less sustainable and would no doubt precipitate further rises in
delinquencies.

And the most dire
side-effect of an avalanche of increasing delinquencies, and the
resultant inability of the cajas to mask the deterioration by buying
back all the worst-performing loans, would be the loss of ECB access. In
the meantime, the cajas would get destroyed as they already are the
proud owners of the very worst loans available: "Any mortgages that
cajas have been purchasing out of their RMBS loan pools could have been
artificially reducing the level of bad loans in RMBS while
simultaneously undermining the quality of cajas own assets" CreditSights
concludes.

Our own conclusion is simpler: got STD CDS yet? And yes, at 264 bps, Spain CDS is cheaper than a deserted Salamanca hotel.

 

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Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:49 | 888627 slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

Clearly the Japanese are paying for this bailout which will shore up the banking sector in Spain, just in time for them to lend money to Japan which will explode if they don't get an injection of cash. 

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:05 | 888673 AUD
AUD's picture

No, the Spanish Cajas are 'paying' for it. They are offering themselves as collateral to the Spanish central bank, who will create deposits for the Cajas in the form of Euro's so the Cajas can 'pay' their creditors....

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 20:19 | 888827 cswjr
cswjr's picture

Indentured servitude -- cool!  Wonder if that extends to the C-suite execs?  If so, can we implement the same deal here?

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 20:48 | 888852 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"Indentured servitude..."  

At least here, in the SE of the US of A, I know a bunch of folks who ain't much on bearing the burden for others irresponsibilty...the Patriot Put ;-)

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 21:31 | 888932 AUD
AUD's picture

Sure, in the wonderful world of credit everything is possible.

Gold down in Euros overnight? it's not like the market currently gives a shit anyhow.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 00:08 | 889220 PiratePiggy
PiratePiggy's picture

As they say over in the UK, "...and Bob's your Uncle"

 

or

 

As we sing in the states "I'm my own grandpa" (with music and diagram below)

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYlJH81dSiw

 

 

 

 

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:50 | 888633 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

This is priced in right?

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:56 | 888651 Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

It really isn't priced in.  Market pricing still believes Euro debt will work out in time without restructuring.  Not gonna happen.  And the restructuring will go beyond Europe.  Prices will go down down down.  But the timing is what we don't know.  

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:58 | 888655 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

/sarc

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:00 | 888660 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Funny.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:52 | 888638 SDRII
SDRII's picture

30-120B euro is the o/u -  a mere month of POMO

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:57 | 888645 etrader
etrader's picture

Must of been just a coincidence that the  IMF  was in Spain on Monday.... ;->

"The International Monetary Fund has sent a special unit to meet with the Bank of Spain, the Spanish Treasury and the nation’s largest banks to evaluate the country’s solvency, El Mundo reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-16/imf-sends-special-unit-to-evalu...

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 18:55 | 888650 Two Gun Tobe
Two Gun Tobe's picture

Just print some Euro's. If Ireland can do it..so can Spain. Just dont

forget to let the European central bankers know, and its all good.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:28 | 888734 Zeroexperience2010
Zeroexperience2010's picture

+11

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:01 | 888662 Misean
Misean's picture

"As for the question where all this bailout money is coming from..."

Where all "money" comes from...thin air! Easy question. Where's a hard one?

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:11 | 888667 razorthin
razorthin's picture

how relevant does aapl look now, bichez?  look at those financials tank AH. lol!!  If there's any reason or justice left in this psycho world, we'll limit down again real soon.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:05 | 888672 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

No problem as long as the Spanish people are up for a deep 10 year austerity recession.  Is that so much to ask?

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:43 | 888769 Rainman
Rainman's picture

....damn, I just knew those marble floors in the Barcelona airport might be a little spendy.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 23:38 | 889195 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Haha jokes on you. While we are starving to death and our bones are breaking from lack of calcium they will all be huddled on the floor at the airport licking away at the marble floor with beautiful healthy bones and teeth. Calcium carbonate.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 06:08 | 889436 ciscokid
ciscokid's picture

Your quite right BCN airport is all marble,Catalunya

is the most indebted regional goverment in Spain.

They have to change the labour laws and be more productive

and less of the siasters and fiastas. 

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:49 | 888784 Star Warrior
Star Warrior's picture

They had the Party, now the Hangover!

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:11 | 888691 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Anything to kick reality a few months down the road.  Party on.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:12 | 888693 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

I don't think they are going to go for it in españa. Rather than a caja, "box", would they not feel un poco mas seguro si los bancos were called something more resembling a vault or at least a jail?  Boxes are being robbed in Spain now.  tighten up before they Ireland you.  

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:17 | 888706 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Futures are doing nothing with this news but are at least holding steady. This, coupled with the health care vote, could be a catalyst tomorrow to bring back a little. But I still think we have 3% more downside before feeling like jumping in again.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:20 | 888717 razorthin
razorthin's picture

check xlf, harry.  you ain't doin nothin without the financials.  cratering real bad.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:24 | 888726 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Remember in late November when everything rallied and the XLF was stuck in the lower 14's? Market did very well during that time frame.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:29 | 888738 razorthin
razorthin's picture

true, but the fact that they had been oversold the entire month made me bullish then, anticipating a springboard lift.  this time, however, they are still very overbought and look like they could be leading us down.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:43 | 888765 mynhair
mynhair's picture

 think I just seen Steve Jobs fueling up his iBoat.

It had writing on the back that said "Anywhere But America Or Bust"

FuturesPast on MW.

Was that boat in flames?

Viking funereal, bitchez!

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 20:07 | 888807 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

He got out at the top :-)

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:49 | 888785 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Print money and give it to the banks. Raise taxes on the new Spanish economic slaves.

IMF and The Bernank will back-stop all of it and keep them on the plantation.  

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 19:53 | 888790 chump666
chump666's picture

Trillion + economy asking for a bailout...that's a global credit crunch scenario.  spain goes spreads will go lehman style, ECB/Germany are going to struggle with this.

worrying

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 20:09 | 888811 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Well, at least they get an A+ for hiding away this sick puppy for as long they did. Worry on.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 20:09 | 888802 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

A perfect illustration of Biflation hell: 

The entire real economy in a tailspin while input costs and cost of living go through the roof. 

Default is the only solution here. But remember that means the creditors must share the pain along with consumers and they are politically connected. 

US is just different by degree. At least most of our economy isn't based on tourism and retirement for people with a pale complexion. However don't think that our banks aren't interconnected with big Spanish banks (which are interconnected with the cajas). All in the same fraternity. 

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 22:37 | 889107 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

Here is an interesting article about EU politics/tensions.

http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-01-galileo-satnav-stupid-idea-cable.html

... some of France's nuclear missiles are aimed at Berlin...

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 23:04 | 889153 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Nobody wants the game to end, but it has to end.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 06:16 | 889439 ciscokid
ciscokid's picture

They have gone "cold turkey" they need a fix.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 00:58 | 889263 chump666
chump666's picture

i think the end game is being priced in...we are close now. 

somewhat of a perfect storm coming: an inflation energy/food crisis slamming into US/EU debt binge, China going into a rate panic mode.

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 04:33 | 889404 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Estamos quebrados

 

For ZH users,

http://www.financialchat.com/sites/default/files/SPANISHCHAOS.pdf

 

Thanks to BAML and Sergio Gamez Report,

 

 

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 05:01 | 889416 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

What are we to do though?  Where do we go from here?

Smile and wave boys, smile and wave

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 07:22 | 889469 Dabale arroz a ...
Dabale arroz a la zorra el abad's picture

Time to emigrate, like the old times... maybe to Titan, I think the shit from the fan won't reach there. Will Titanians eat gold?

Thu, 01/20/2011 - 09:30 | 889605 youngman
youngman's picture

very quiet today....its all Morgan Stanley....a little China dinner....human rights abuses....nothing about the economy or inflation or debt.....very very quiet....and now 404,000 new unemployed....gold and sliver tanking on time.....all is good sheeple...all is good

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