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Spain Lowers GDP Estimate, Raises Unemployment Forecast As Coffee Finally Being Smelled
With Greece now a distant, proforma bankrupt memory, rubberneckers have finally started paying far more attention to the Spanish slow motion trainwreck. And things in the Pyrenean country are deteriorating: earlier, Market News reported that the market's reaction to Spain's austerity package was one of ridicule, and its credibility will be further eroded now that Spanish bilateral labor reform talks have ended unsuccessfully, leading the way for general strikes as early as next week. Pouring even more gas into the fire is the just released announcement by the Spanish government that earlier economic forecasts were too optimistic: a hallmark of any floundering Keynesian state (and all of this even without the ongoing liquidity crisis as seen by rumors about BBVA's CP access and the ongoing flash merger rage among all the insolvent savings banks). The government, which is currently saddled with 20% unemployment, said that the economy will grow by 2.5 percent in 2012, down from its previous forecast of 2.9%. GDP growth in 2013 is seen at 2.7%, down from 3.1% previously. And while a realistic unemployment picture courtesy of austerity is now in the upper 20% range, a step in the right direction was the revision to the unemployment forecast, which was pushed higher to 18.9 percent in 2011, up from the 18.4 percent previously seen.
On the other hand, all of this is irrelevant: as now monetary union has ever had to operate in an environment where currency devaluation is at least formally frowned upon, and in which every country was contracting its GDP via austerity and other general strike measures, the final outcome in 2011 will likely be far, far worse, not only for Spain but all of Europe. As usual, the only relevant question is when will European leaders finally realize the euro is unviable, a return to native, devaluationable currencies is critical, and pull the plug on the union.
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Thats not coffee in the refrigerator.
man, I lol'd there. Nice.
The Turdman requests you take three minutes to watch this. Pertinent to this blog.
http://www.youtube.com:80/watch?v=H0a_FA_J6Sw
awesome
No wonder there were so many people in line in Madrid to buy an iPad, they didn't have a job to go to. Might as well hang out overnight and buy a new iPad with all the funds the EU and IMF keep bestowing upon you. Hell, might as well grab a new MacBook Pro while you're there too.
The question is - how can you trade it?
"Oy!"
"As usual, the only relevant question is when will European leaders finally realize the euro is unviable, a return to native, devaluationable currencies is critical, and pull the plug on the union."
The Union is not about economics, it is about political power. There is an end game here, and it is the loss of national sovereignty.
Don't you see? The bankers will save us if we just bend our knee and kiss the ring.
I'd rather die.
Yeah people come up.
Yeah, we better turn the bass up on this one.
Rage Against The Machine: People Of The Sunhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_YtCpC12Kg&feature=related
Its comin' back around again
This is for the people of the sun
Its comin' back around again
Spain has lots of upside potential.
Just cancel Siesta and work like normal people.
20% unemployment is probably a good centurian average for Spain.
Only time they had more people employed was during and after the Spanish Civil War.
Honestly, just can't take Spain serious. Is like Mexico but older, more time to fester corruption.
Good luck with that! Cancel the siesta? ¡No se puede!
It is interesting that even with high un/underemployment, that there are very high numbers of immigrant workers from Latin America who continue to faithfully send home their 'remesas' to the family. I don't doubt that it is bad, but perhaps Spanish people have become entirely a parasite class.
The problem is more the other way round: what would be out of California, Ohio a.s.o. if there were no U.S. dollar and, more important, a federal Government? And while we are at this, who is using the CDS as another mean for continuation of politics?
We need more Europe and more Euro, not less.
At the same time we don't need THIS Europe: I mean the EU the way it is now
The pressure set upon Europe is precisely in the direction of disintegrating the Euro and the political union: our ancestors who once upon a time used to be in a similar position as the only remaining superpower were used to ask "cui prodest?" who gains from the situation? These same ancestor also used the golden rule of "divide et impera"... I'm not saing the U.S. of A. are on war with Europe, but I do think that there are some people in the finance world that are strong enough to pursue a politic of power against sovereign states (U.S. of A. included) and, that those people, incidentally located mainly on the other side of the pond from my point of wiew, would see their power questioned if the dollar would chease being the reference currency worldwide without them managing the process of changeover to another currency, if need be.
Question is, how long will they be able to put such a pressure on markets (will the printer at FED eventually meltdown?): I hope eventually they will drown in theyr own green paper...
Regards
Perfect example of the phony green economy! We need to replicate Spain!
checkmate
we are entitled to 60y.o. retirement @ 95% of the largest salary or ELSE. we are part ofthe good old Europe, damn it !
Euro will ether be devalued or destroyed, there is no other way around it. In 1997 it took Asian Tigers 3 to 6 months to reserve onto the path of devaluation, I would expect nothing less for EU. They are 60% trough the denial stage, fun will ensure right about now (1-2 weeks.)
Summer + bored students and young adults facing 30-50% unemployment = Good Times are coming !
Exactly Crab
We must not surrender souvereignity to banksters, but divided and with those politicians we have now we'll fail: it doesn't look exactly like a win win situation (not for us, at least), doesn't it?
Comrade, yes, it seems, either someone comes up with some mad move which could possibly turn the table upside down.
What if the States would reimbourse the debts in "debit notes" freely expendable inside the Country, not (or limitedly) convertible in foreign currency. Of course, one would need the military force in order to persuad citizens of the goodness of this new parallel currency. Not bad actually, we could stop spending on foreign and useless military missions... ;)
The ECB guy better start using his helicopter like Ben or call it quits and retire.
Where's Dr. Jeffrey Sachs to tell us we're overreacting?
Well Spain could do what China did, "go native" and peg the Peseta to the $Dollar.
The Spanish curse from the 1400's. They discovered gold in the Americas and built an entire empire on it. Meanwhile the Northern Europeans had to become industrial powers to create their wealth. When the gold shipments stopped the Spanish found themselves with no real economic power. They have been playing catch-up ever since. Still a great country to visit, Barcelona is fantastic.
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