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The Spec EUR Herd Falls Into The Trap, As 10 Year UST Longs Peak, Flattening Bets Reappear

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The most recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report is out. As usual the most interesting data can be found in the FX spec update which does not disappoint. Just as we predicted, as the EUR surged over the past 14 days so did non-commercial net specs. The number which is through Tuesday, probably increased even as the EUR got hammered over the past 24 hours, dropping 250 pips in two days. Expect the usual piling out through the front door as specs bail once again. At that point the time to buy the EUR will come. Of the other two major pairs, the USD and the JPY, the Yen increased in long exposure while the Dollar saw the first decline in 8 weeks: just in time for the USD to jump once again.

Looking at the other interesting category, the distribution of appetite across the bond curve, we see the 5 Year net bullish sentiment decline for the first time from near record highs. The same with the 2 Year. Both of these were modestly offset by a substantial short covering at the long end, as speculators apparently bet modestly on a 2/30 and 5/30 flattening over the past week.

What is interesting is that the Net Interest in Nymex Natgas has jumped to a record. While not directly related at all to the recent shenanigans we exposed first with the berserk natgas algo, this is something to keep track of.

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/gfx1/CFTC_Natgas.gif

Lastly, for a complete interactive chart for all other commodities, click on the chart below for an extended updated analysis by Reuters.

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/gfx1/CFTC_Crude.gif

 

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Fri, 06/10/2011 - 15:56 | 1359221 Concentrated po...
Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.'s picture

i'm long 'lies from leaders' from 400.  i'm short 'objections from the plebes'. 

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 16:01 | 1359243 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Im long molotov cocktails.

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 19:35 | 1360037 bob resurrected
bob resurrected's picture

Get a job.

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 19:48 | 1360074 JPG101
JPG101's picture

Making cocktails?

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 16:04 | 1359244 duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

Don't forget to go 3x short justice for wall street criminals

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 16:04 | 1359257 Concentrated po...
Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.'s picture

good call, but i hear there's tracking error.  can i buy an ETN?

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 15:58 | 1359224 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Dollar looks good here for a while. Not betting against it yet. Great charts Tyler. Thanks, as always. We are closing at the lows. Monday going to be interesting. And, if another PIGG blows up this weekend a rush to the worthless dollar will continue.

What a crock this all is but protect your capital if you do not short.

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 20:08 | 1360144 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

The USD may be trash, but the Euro smells even worst. The movements out the USD are speculators going to oversees markets. The carry trade will quickly reverse.

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 15:55 | 1359228 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Break downs every where. Tough to keep up,.

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 16:04 | 1359241 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Finally.  Commence heavy drinking. 

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 16:06 | 1359247 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Too late.

uurrppp

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 16:03 | 1359254 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

You stopped? Heck, this is an awesome event for shorts.....celebratory drinking time.

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 16:05 | 1359261 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Awesome only if you didn't have a trailing stop.

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 16:13 | 1359283 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Haven't you learned that lesson by now?

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 16:18 | 1359313 mynhair
mynhair's picture

At least a '+' resulted.  Jumped into TZA afterwards.

Tracking error is only bad if held for 2 or more days - that I learned.

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 16:13 | 1359302 JohnG
JohnG's picture

No stops got hit...yet.  Prolly Monday?  Dunno.

SPXU had a fine week though.

Just don't like shorting all that much.  Have to get used to it or get out I guess.

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 16:07 | 1359251 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Nothing like global risk aversion to let Beranklecide try and deftly tip toe out of the treasury auctions.

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 16:03 | 1359256 Boston
Boston's picture

Treasury chart legend is cut off?

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 16:08 | 1359259 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

today was an absolute BLAST! I love days like this...MORE MORE MORE!!!!!!

"it was gorgeousness and gorgeousity made flesh..."

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 16:17 | 1359307 wombats
wombats's picture

Is this good news for PM investors?

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 16:18 | 1359320 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Of course, it's now more cheeper than Weiner!  (bursts into song)

Jeepers, cheepers, where'd you get those Spys?

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 16:59 | 1359416 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Weiner had an unfortunate shmelting accident.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sr0gNJ090JA&feature=related

itsy bitsy spyder climbed up the liquidity spout. Along came reality and washed the spyder out...

Sat, 06/11/2011 - 01:50 | 1360723 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Itsy bitsy spider builds a web in the house closet only to be smashed by the levithan bullion as it drops from the big sky.

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 16:56 | 1359504 oogs66
oogs66's picture

I can't remember, is Goldman positive or negative on the Euro?  Or both?

Sat, 06/11/2011 - 10:39 | 1361066 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

NatGas very interesting indeed. Its been a dead asset since the crash, but some smart money believes after this summer is over it'll finally break out as the glut of supply is finally starting to go in the opposite direction of demand!

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 07:14 | 1362707 MrTrader
MrTrader's picture

Interesting how net EUR spec positions should be USD supportive. Where in the world has ZEROHEDGE learnt this interpretation? Primary school? Maybe some members should go back to school - again ;=)

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