The Spec EUR Herd Falls Into The Trap, As 10 Year UST Longs Peak, Flattening Bets Reappear

Tyler Durden's picture

The most recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report is out. As usual the most interesting data can be found in the FX spec update which does not disappoint. Just as we predicted, as the EUR surged over the past 14 days so did non-commercial net specs. The number which is through Tuesday, probably increased even as the EUR got hammered over the past 24 hours, dropping 250 pips in two days. Expect the usual piling out through the front door as specs bail once again. At that point the time to buy the EUR will come. Of the other two major pairs, the USD and the JPY, the Yen increased in long exposure while the Dollar saw the first decline in 8 weeks: just in time for the USD to jump once again.

Looking at the other interesting category, the distribution of appetite across the bond curve, we see the 5 Year net bullish sentiment decline for the first time from near record highs. The same with the 2 Year. Both of these were modestly offset by a substantial short covering at the long end, as speculators apparently bet modestly on a 2/30 and 5/30 flattening over the past week.

What is interesting is that the Net Interest in Nymex Natgas has jumped to a record. While not directly related at all to the recent shenanigans we exposed first with the berserk natgas algo, this is something to keep track of.

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/gfx1/CFTC_Natgas.gif

Lastly, for a complete interactive chart for all other commodities, click on the chart below for an extended updated analysis by Reuters.

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/gfx1/CFTC_Crude.gif