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Speculative EUR Short Positions Back To 2010 Highs
After having contracted notably to only -93,325 net short speculative contracts, it appeared that speculators could be loosening their death grip on the EURUSD. The most recent numbers from the CFTC commitments of traders report, however, indicates that after last week, EUR shorts once again piled back in, after the second largest adverse move in EUR sentiment in 2010. -18,620 contracts were added to short positions, the second largest such move in 2010, following only the -28,576 from March 23, resulting in a speculative Euro FX exposure of -111,945 net short contracts: just a fraction higher than the all time low ever seen of -113,890 on May 11. As this data is for the week ended June 8, the late week shakeout in which the EURUSD climbed all the way back to $1.21 is therefore just a case of all the new weak hands getting shaken out, after ambitions of a quick profit did not materialize. We now expect the net short number to once again drop below the -100,000 mark, and for the EURUSD speculative onslaught to continue.
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What does goldman say again? I'll just do opposite of whatever they say...
but everybody knows that so I'll do what goldman says now... but mmm everybody knows that too so do whatever LOL
Buy or Sell? "OR" becomes the best move.
The Dollar strength flies in the face of the US macro economic conditions. It feels to me that absent further near term surprises (on that note, it's really fucking quiet on the Austrian front but then who'd have thought Jorg Haider was gay or their President Waldhiem was actually a former SS officer, so they have previous in keeping secrets to themselves) we are reaching a near term bottom. Benny Boy needs to get the markets up and why would they bother with the stock market when EURJPY is where it's at?
The internal view from a couple of the big banks was that the 1.20 area was a decent target, so all this noise about having further to fall seems a perfect set up to generate the other side of the trade. Having said that, I am sure the Eurozone leaders will continue saying stupid things in order to keep the downward pressure...
the dollar strength makes perfect sense.......the world is infected by keynesian thought and plenty of people still think the dollar is "safe".
Jim rogers is gonna get crushed haha
Jim said he went long the Euro the other day.
You have to know - with the best of the best, they will swap their thesis on a dime. Whether its cynical manipulation or just because they change their mind, no one can know.
You don't try to second-guess someone like Jim. It's like picking a fight with god. You just try to stay out of the way and ride the wave when appropriate.
Interesting interview of Jim Rogers on FSN this week. http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.php
I'm sure that as much as Rogers may have lost buying the euro, he's certainly made a lot more with his dollar and Yen holdings not to mention he started shorting emerging markets, the Nasdaq, and an international financial institution when the market was running full steam ahead in April.
My Grandma, what big euro shorts you have....The better to squeeze you, dear...
If the world economy has another serious downturn, there is a decent chance the euro will be a casualty. However, similar arguments could be made for the $. Shorter term, some digestion of the recent losses/gains are in order. And Timmay and Ben aren't likely to sit idle for long with an election coming up and American corporate profitability and export competitiveness eroding with every downtick of the EUR/USD. That, and some semblence of fiscal sanity being mouthed by the European end of the G-20. Ultimately, it will be interesting to see whether that talk translates into action.
The Euro zone is doooooooooooommmed, doooooooooooooooommmed I tell you! HA HA HA HAAAAAAWWW...
Dr. No No Hell No...
Uncertainty = Volatility = Great trading.
If you ain't got the swing, it don't mean a thing.
Question is how much ammo will the SNB bring to pump EUR this week??? Is 1.195 the line (short term) in the sand???
Well,
After reading
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/deutsche-mark-quotations-restored-germa...
I don't know! At 1.19 I thought Euro was a buy but now I'm not sure.
DavidC
that's setting up for a mighty skweeze.
DOW chart warns of a rally :
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
EURUSD and EURJPY daily charts now give bullish warnings.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Didn't see why Jim was going long the Euro, but I've been long since early (EST time) last thursday. EURUSD has since risen from 1.2033 to a high so far (today) of 1.2256; 223 pips. I see no reason to close the position either, since a test of 1.2323 looks to be in the cards either later today or tomarrow. We'll just have to see whether or not it goes up another 67 pips or so ;)
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