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Speculative Long EUR Positions Tumble By 38%, Bullish Bets In Dollar And Yen Rise

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It was to be expected: as of the just released CFTC Commitment of Traders data, the net exposure of non-commercial EUR longs, arguably a bubble far bigger than gold and silver combined in terms of volume and participation, tumbled from 99,516  to 61,447 long contracts, or a nearly 40% drop in net short positions in one week after everyone long the EUR experiened one of the biggest one week tumbles in the European currency in history. And this is happening even without the CFTC hiking margins. Notably, Yen shorts have now abdicated, and following its drop into steep negative speculative territory, when it hit -52,983 contracts on April 19, it has now moved into the green, adding 32k contracts to a total of 13,054. Lastly, and not at all surprisingly, the gradual contraction in bearish dollar bets continues to abate, and at a just barely negative net position of -4,563, the USD is now back to February 2011 levels. It appears that the great unwind of the USD short trade is almost over, and from this point on it will be just the retails, the momos and the robots.

 

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Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:12 | 1272759 silberblick
silberblick's picture

BLOGSPOT.COM IS UP AGAIN.
Click below to read why silver market manipulation will not end soon:

http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/market-manipulation-not-t...

Click on the next link to watch a hilarious animation telling you why you should buy physical silver:

http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/join-sla-to-get-even-and-...

Finally, click on this last link to read why the CFTC is doing nothing about market manipulation:

http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/04/reason-why-cftc-is-doing-...

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:12 | 1272770 Transformer
Transformer's picture

So, you think it might be good to invest in silver?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:23 | 1272834 Rynak
Rynak's picture

I like gold and silver. And yet, i'm sorry to say that your post doesn't provide much useful information. I did read the first article, and it did not explain why manipulation will not end soon, at all - it's only argument is "because they will fight until the end". While that may be true, it doesn't really add any scenario one didn't already know. Link 2 is funny. Link 3 is just master of the obvious.

In principle, if any PM-troll wanted a hook to proclaim that PM-bulls are just blind pushers spreading propaganda, then your links provide just that. The info isn't that much different to any political-activist blog, just that here, the "topic" is not a political party.

I welcome useful and critical info, even if it is off-topic... but as i said, the content your post links is plain promotion, and not much else. And what i probably dislike the most, is that the post gives the impression that the links provide explanations and data. It would be half as bad if you would present it as what it is.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 22:40 | 1273642 longorshort
longorshort's picture

Do we have a moderator to ban this idiot spammer by IP.  He keeps spamming the same post on unrelated articles.  God does the junk feature even work?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:21 | 1272775 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i think this means G/Sachs was right, before it was wrong...

that fuking dollar chart is a wonder of reflationary reverse engineering, isn't it? 

head fake 101, to control inflation, then, QE III=>n

race to the bottom, BiCheZ! 

winning!  yay!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:15 | 1272777 trgfunds
trgfunds's picture

..."arguably a bubble far bigger than gold and silver" -- Ah, so gold and silver ARE a bubble now. I see what you did there...

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:28 | 1272821 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PM-LrMimRys

 

Max Keiser guest Eric Sprott on commodities prices [gold,silver] (12May11)

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:15 | 1272779 truont
truont's picture

This steep FX volatility will continue to make "widowmakers" out of Retail FX Trading Platforms.
FX with 100:1 leverage with this volatility is impossible for ma/pa and japanese housewives to handle profitably for the long-term.
Get gold/silver with zero leverage instead.
Buy the dips with savings.
Quinn: What do we do when we see him?
Children: Dig hard, dig deep, run for shelter, and never look back!
--Reign of Fire

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:16 | 1272783 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

The back and forth game continues. These currencies are simply a refecltion of each other. When the mirror gets smashed for one, they all go down.

 

http://ericsprott.blogspot.com/

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:20 | 1272784 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Rising dollar cant be good news for the Maniacal Monetizers.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:31 | 1272847 The They
The They's picture

It is good news if they're looking for an excuse to monetize.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:18 | 1272796 gkm
gkm's picture

Euro still looks really good here.  

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:20 | 1272799 hambone
hambone's picture

Bullshit fiat bullshit sloshes one way and on cue for no general economic benefit sloshes the other way.  Long dollar, long euro, long yen...who gives a fuck.  Seriously, these are all just a means to syphon off ever greater cash and pass on ever greater debt (and power both ways).  All make believe following the storyline concocted by a few to fleece the many.

Such bullshit that any-such-fucking thing has changed between the euro - dollar - yen in the past year.  All still on same trajectory, same fucking race to zero, but their FX cross' gyrate wildly.  What absolute bullshit...all of it.

Off to get a fucking drink...and apologies to any old fucking grandma's who don't appreciate my language, the only fucking one I can think of to truly express my utter loss of belief in this whole fucking game.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:29 | 1272825 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

 i hear ya, ham.  

 and it just wouldn't have had the same punch without all the F bombs.

 carry on, man, carry on.   and have one on me.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:29 | 1272826 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

I generally believe that most people (not just ZH goers) would agree with such a statement. Alot of people give the "masses" no credit. While they may not "pay attention" as much as others, I think their instincts tell them more than enough that shit IS hitting the fan (or is going to.)

Although whenever I make such optimistic statements I look at Obama's "ratings" and go "whoops spoke too soon." Then I question myself why I even think those ratings touch on reality. Here in about 30 minutes I'll be joining you.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 17:25 | 1274697 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Obama's ratings?........

Nothing but RIGGED BS.

MSM Propganda.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:43 | 1272909 Peak Everything
Peak Everything's picture

Exactly. The games ends when no one wants to play. I'm out and am enjoying watching people makes idiots of themselves.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 17:52 | 1273097 Billy Shears
Billy Shears's picture

"Don't play, don't give the game away."

Johnny Rotten
The great rock n' roll swindle

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:28 | 1273295 fswalker
fswalker's picture

Your absolute ignorance is a bit out of line from the general ZH crowd. How do you expect to play the game if you dont know what the game is to begin with. Crawl back in your hole and stick to commenting on PM based posts.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 05:15 | 1273919 PolishHammer
PolishHammer's picture

This post exemplifies the fall of once valuable community.  There's absolutely no reason to read comments on ZH anymore.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:24 | 1272804 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

The slow moving unlevered money moving away from the dollar concerns me more than they leveraged specs ping-ponging between central bank press releases and speeches.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:26 | 1272815 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

States are so deperate for a dollar, they are issuing $800 parking tickets.  Yea, that is how you welcome people to your city and keep your residents.  ROFL

I can't wait to see the next moves these idiots try to dream up to balance their budgets.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:34 | 1272836 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

Virginia tried that fucking bullshit not that long ago with its excessive driving fees. The worst part about the debate was what it was centered on. The issue was that people who were just driving through the state didn't have to pay the same penalties. This is in direct contrast to what I believe the REAL issue was, which was the OPEN reason for doing it. TO RAISE REVENUE. So now we have reached a system that no longer fits the punishment to the crime, but rather the punishment to the need of filling the state's treasury.

I'm pretty sure this is talked about somewhere in the constitution....

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:31 | 1272844 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

In hyper inflation, no one ever has enough money and prices go up.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 17:29 | 1274701 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Mass exodus from NYC of NOW the Upper/Middle class.

Taxation, is taking it to 3rd world status.

Snake Pliskin won't be going in to straghten out that mess.

A brood of Vipers.................they cannot/refuse to see their welfare state has destroyed the entire state.

People will only work for other people for so long, and get nothing in return.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:29 | 1272822 Keri at Bankste...
Keri at Bankster Report's picture

Ghostfaceinvestah posted this link on the "FX Wipeout" post, and it is relative here:

ttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-intervened-to-buy-1-bln-in-dollars-i...

We already know all about this manipulation, but for some reason, that link just set me off.  Perhaps its because acknowledged, continual evidence of massive international market manipulation orchestrated by the privately-owned Fed and funded by the broke American taxpayer to the turn of billions and trillion of dollars gets a full two sentences on MarketWatch, and no one else even seems to care.

So, that's it.  I'm going on an obsencity-laden (for me) rant tangent.

Who else here has seen "Bush Link to Kennedy Assassination"?  It is recommended, it you haven't seen it:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4315024059102108031#

Near the end of the film, there is a part in which the narrator is explaining how the CIA was asking the FBI and Hoover to share what it knew about the assassination; of course, the FBI was discovering the CIA links to the assassination, and so the CIA was basically asking the FBI whether or not it was going to go along with the CIA’s cover story.  As the CIA is a murderous pack of assassins, when one is being asked to cooperate, the options are not “cooperate or object,” but rather, “cooperate or die.” 

I bring it up because the film makes an analogy that has stuck with me, and of which I was reminded by looking at ghostfaceinvestah's link.  The film portrays the CIA as a wife-beater and the FBI (Hoover) as his wife.  Then it goes like this, with my extensive elaboration:

The wife-beater and wife are driving around in the car one day when the wife-beater reaches under his wife’s seat and pulls out a pair of panties, thrusts them in her face and says, “Hey, baby, look what I found!  Huh, these sure don’t look like your panties!  In fact, I’ve never ever seen you wear panties like these before?  Hmmm…I wonder where these could have come from….”

“I wonder how these got in here—in my car?  C’mon, baby, help me out here.  Whose panties are these?”

The wife knows damn well that they ain’t hers, and she knows damn well how they got it there.  And she knows damn well as soon as she challenges him, she’s going to get to face smashed in. Of course, she can always leave him instead of just sitting there and taking it, but after all, she is emotionally/psychologically/finanacially dependedant/controlled by her husband, so what does she do? 

She sits there and takes it.

That’s how this bullshit makes me feel.  When I saw this bin Laden story hit two weeks ago, and watched the “narrative” change every ten minutes, becoming more ridiculous and self-contradictory each time, it was like watching Obama and Panetta at the podium saying,

“We killed bin Laden because we love you, America, baby, and you’re going to believe us because we say we did.  We’ll change the story as many times as we’d like, and we’re only doing it to protect you anyway because we love you and we love freedom. I’m your president and I do what’s right, baby cakes.  And I’m not going to give you one damn picture, bitch, because you dare not second guess me.  We dumped his body in the ocean and what are you fucking going to do about it?  Everything we do we do for you and America.  By the way, whose panties are these?

When I see Ben Bernanke telling Congress to raise the debt ceiling, I hear, “C’mon, baby, if you don’t raise the debt limit, it is going to be really, really bad for the USA.  People will be very sad in the USA.  Timmay agrees with me, baby, and Timmay and I only do what’s best for the USA.  So raise the fucking limit, bitch, or you’ll find out tonight how much we love you.  By the way, whose panties are these?

Most people here on ZH have had the experience, I’m sure, of explaining to someone what the Fed is and how it works; explaining exactly what the Fed is intentionally doing to each one of us, personally.  And you’ve heard the response, “Nah…that’s not right.  They can’t do that.  The government would never let that happen.”  So then you show them the evidence---you show them the panties!---and they still don’t care. 

So you think, “OK, okay when the Fed shows them the panties, they’ll care; maybe they just don’t believe me.”  So the Fed comes out (like that link and so many other reams of evidence and fucking admission!) and shows them the fucking panties, thrusts them in their faces and says,

Whose panties are these, bitch?

And they just sit there and take it.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:37 | 1272860 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Nice rant.

Gold and silver panties bitchez...

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:09 | 1273141 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

Have to agree. The death of Bin Retard (just running with it being the 'truth'), didn't fill me with any satisfaction. People cheering, most of whom were 10 years old at the time and had no idea what was going on, didn't make me glad. I just kept reading stories about it, seeing the pictures, but it all felt empty and useless.

"Great, Now what?" Is what I keep thinking. Never was a clearer demarcation between those that think critically and others that join crowds without caring what the underlying reason is.

Like a horror movie, where we safely view from cover while a horrible monster creeps up on the campfire of people partying, all we can do is cover our eyes - nobody will listen until it is way too late.

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:34 | 1272845 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Problem:

Riots in Tunesia, Egypt, etc. over spiraling food prices

Solution:

Decimate the grain complex with a flurry of paper shorting

Problem:

Skyrocketing gas prices

Solution:

Implement margin hikes and tax big oil

Problem:

Chain-selling of the USD by speculators

Solution:

Multiple margin hikes on Gold and Silver

Problem:

Debt ceiling approaching

Solution:

Burn Bill Gross by crashing commodities and institute another "fear trade" back into U.S. Treasuries

 

Note how we are witnessing the "Dollar Rally That Will Shock The World".

And the 5-year yield has been crushed to 1.83% ever since Bill Gross said he was shorting.

Next up:

- Margin hikes on all EUR, CAD, and AUD crosses with USD.

Uncle Gorilla is now in the driver's seat.

And the XRT is off a mere 30 cents from its all-time highs.

While many gold and silver stocks have plunged 30% - 45%.

And "physical silver" has been decimated in the biggest 2 - week rout since 1983.

Never, never trade against the Federal Government.

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:38 | 1272861 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Never trade against the Weimar government.

Never trade against the Zimbabwe government.

Never trade against the $PAPERTIGER government.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:43 | 1272906 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

The Word?

Bear put spreads.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:42 | 1272889 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Wrong. No time line shown except his 5 minute attention span.

Silver up 81% YOY. Robo loses the argument once again...

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:46 | 1272911 ursus.peracto
ursus.peracto's picture

Fight a war with paper v.s. tangible "real assets? That plan is pure fail.

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:53 | 1272940 Rynak
Rynak's picture

I totally agree RT! Don't "trade" :-))))) Neither against the gov, nor in it's favour, because in this environment, "friend" and "foe" changes on a daily basis. Forget trading.... there is no market - only opportunities to suck from the nonmarket to establish your own market, and wait for them to selfdestruct.

Your uncle gorilla isn't a mastermind hacker. He's just a megalomaniac scriptkiddie, desperately pushing buttons while having no fucking clue about the internals and longterm consequences. The way he manipulates the markets, is about as skilled as Obama Debt Laden's birth cert fake. All power and no dexterity and wisdom.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 04:14 | 1273899 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

From a website, far, far away:

Two Things, First Lord Vaders, birth certificate is a phony! (Everyone knows you used the Force to have it changed, and the cost of fuel for speeder bikes is still high, and he says nothing!

I also think that this whole story is concocted, as this terrorism is the work of the Hutts and not the Rebels.

I support the rebels! NOT THE HUTTS!

http://www.galacticempiretimes.com/2011/05/09/galaxy/outer-rim/obi-wan-k...

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:37 | 1272859 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Hey you get my analysis for free and don't even have to leave zero hedge!

It has been a mighty battle around the 100 dma for silver.  Silver gapped up today and then does what it always does eventually which is go back and fill the gaps.  Volume is trailing off after the biggest volume spike yet in the silver mania.  All technical pictures are mixed, but silver appears slightly oversold with recent volatility trending lower.

All in all it looks like silver will not be making a major move in the next few days.  The longer we stay in a low volume,  low volatility (compared to recent events!), condition hugging the 100 dma the more confident I am that this is a short term basing pattern.

recent option premiums and volatility suggest that this would be a low reward arena in which to play right now, except for the put spread I will mention later.  However as these patterns eventually break significantly one way or another at some point, one might consider buying a June put and call right at the money by late next week if the silver market remains range bound and low volume for the next few days.  An iron butterfly is also a great way to get your toes wet in the options market for the faint of heart.  This is likely a temporary lull in the big volatility we have seen recently so patience for the next few days to two weeks may give you a better price to set up your positions

Much as I like to call tops my early reading of the tea leaves suggest that the market "wants" to go higher in the short to intermediate term.  A bear put spread is freqently a good way to earn money on volatility fears.  Those who are braver and believe that the market will remain flat to higher might want to sell a slightly out of the money put and buy another put at a strike price 5 to ten percent lower.

Do you feel lucky punk?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:38 | 1272877 tmosley
tmosley's picture

No need for luck when you own physical.

They can say it's worth $0 or $1,000,000,000,000,000.  It doesn't really matter.  It will only be traded for gold and/or goods when the time comes.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:51 | 1272942 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

But that is way to boring for me!

I am too old to do hardcore drugs, so volatility is my thing.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:42 | 1272903 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

The smart hedge funds are going to be cashing in their huge profits in retail stocks eventually and cash them in once gold and silver bottom out.  But in the meantime, they are letting their winners ride for now.

The coin-clutchers who didn't diversify and held on to 100% weighted PM positions were destroyed and missed out on gaining another 30% in capital by selling PM's at the top and rotating into retail, many names which are up big since gold topped.

Diversification and Rotation is the name of the game in order to survive with trading.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:49 | 1272923 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I have never been able to hop from one up market to the next market going up.   Silver to retail or silver to whatever is way to advanced for me.  I can't do it consistently. 

I play cash against one market at a time and rotate back and forth with my super hot money.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:58 | 1272962 ursus.peracto
ursus.peracto's picture

When I was a youngster there were advertisements in the last few pages of magazines for coin and paper currency vendors. There still may be today. I don't know, I don't read magazines. Anyway, I got my dad to sign up for a program where the vendor would send some paper currencies from all over the world and you could purchase nice looking paper with colorful pictures and numbers on them. They sent nice looking paper currrencies from Nigeria, China, Philipines, Brazil, Argentina, etc...

 

One thing they all had in common was they cost next to nothing to buy, they were no longer redeemable or exchangable for anything (because the currency had FAILED), and they all had plenty of zeros after the first number.

 

Perhaps one day my kids will join the currency mailer club and recieve some old U.S. dollars with cool pictures and lots of zeros for next to nothing.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 17:31 | 1273054 firefighter302
firefighter302's picture

I've seen a very different enviroment.

Coins have been a magnificent buy. Many of the Coins of limited mintage sold for under $30, six months ago and are still well over $50 since they've sold out. They were offered for just a few dollars over spot.

The numismatic value has increased, in addition to the silver value. 

Coins and exceptional rounds can come with a built in arbitrage.

"Destroyed" are the coin clutchers? Many of the coins have doubled from their intitial cost from 2010, even with the fall in SLV price.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 17:40 | 1273072 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Diversification and Rotation is the name of the game in order to survive with trading."

 

Yes, under normal conditions (meaning like anything we have ever seen before, which it isn't) this is true but consider 1) how many people are trading right now, and 2) you presume the extend and pretend politicians can buy some more time (as they in 2008, not completely convinced they can do it again without significantly more fallout), and 3) should it become much like Russia in the 1990's (which is not that unrealistic, the U.S. is just coming at a similar resolution from another angle, especially as the dollar continues to lose status) then one definition of "money" will change dramatically.  

You really need to stop contradicting yourself too.  Diversification means you hold some physical PMs in your portfolio.  If you were too stupid to buy them when they were cheap, it sounds like you don't know how to diversify.  That is rule #1 in long term diversification, buy PMs when no one else is.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 17:43 | 1273082 Blorf
Blorf's picture

Hedge funds are being nuked on a daily basis with the carry trade unwinds.  The smart ones aren't "letting their winners ride", they are getting the F out of dodge before QE2 ends.  The July Russell 2000 chart is going to look like the May silver chart.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:45 | 1272917 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

The XAU to gold ratio has been crushed, might be near a bottom, the shares will start moving up before the bullion bottoms.  So when you see Newmont start moving up and gold still going down, then that will be the time to pick up more physical if you want it.

Getting close.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX:GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77775107615

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:51 | 1272932 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

yeah. I don't think we are going to see huge moves down in gold and silver from this point.  But Dammit!  I live for the topcall!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 17:59 | 1273118 ConfusedIdiot
ConfusedIdiot's picture

Agreed TC but do you have more info on the panties. CI

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:09 | 1273132 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

wish I did.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:43 | 1272890 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Paper money is religion. Grownups tend to get over it.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 17:41 | 1273083 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Wait what?  Yeah, those religious revivals are just full of kids handing over money.  < sarc off >

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:43 | 1272904 Undecided
Undecided's picture

Yes and it looks like all bets are on the SDR as the New world reserve currency.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/13/markets/dollar_currency_reserve/index.htm

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:56 | 1272952 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

The COT reports are completley meaninglessin markets that have both liquid spot and futures markets (equities & currencies). I could be long 600m EURUSD spot and short 500m worth of E6M11 futs.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 17:12 | 1273028 Tracerfan
Tracerfan's picture

The U.S. is more bankrupt than the Euro nations and its currency is just as fiat.

A rising Dollar kills U.S. jobs and makes the U.S. debt load even more unbearable.

The Dollar will go to fair value, which is orders of magnitude lower than where it is now.

Only idiots think the Dollar and Euro and Yen are the only currencies available.

Gold and silver have been currencies for 5,000 years and will be for at least another 500 years.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:47 | 1273331 blueRidgeBoy
blueRidgeBoy's picture

I'm new here and trying to learn all the trader lingo. What's a "momo"?
I know what BTFD means, thanks to the Silver Bears.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:53 | 1273348 MrBinkeyWhat
MrBinkeyWhat's picture

Pixie dust and Unicorn poop. Yup! That and butterfly flutters from Indonesia. THAT is what makes the economy work!  Forget about PM. That is for the "survivalist-tin foil hat crowd".

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:57 | 1273358 Mallenet
Mallenet's picture

And last week Ty?  Which witch is which?  Moron!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 20:08 | 1273367 Al89
Al89's picture

I still think this $ rally has a way to go. We haven't even seen one of the same strength as that in November, when the entire market knew it had 6 months of weekly billion dollar injections to look forward too. Now, with spec positions coming in from such out of whack positions and the market not knowing when exactly the next fix is coming..it could be q a violent up surge.

Not to mention the fact that it the Fed/Wall St. probably want the dollar to rise and risk assets to drop to give them inflation breathing space (Obama wants this too) and justification for QE3.

Meanwhile in Europe..we know a Euro at these levels isn't great for the zone's, and particularly Germany's export economy. 

So who doesn't want major temporary USD surge?

PM/Commodity specs should be loving this too, we have a great buying opp coming up, and it is getting better with everyday that the rally continues. I just can't wait to watch the equity markets go if/when they follow commodities down. The amount of leverage right now will make for a fairly spectacular drop. 

My opinion obviously means jack but that's what I think will happen.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 21:09 | 1273470 vocational tainee
vocational tainee's picture

Dear boy ,when every house is burning,don`t by their produce...

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 22:59 | 1273665 longorshort
longorshort's picture

where is the most up to date data on short interests for currencies?  I would imagine futures or something reflects it.  Please post a link if you know.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 04:17 | 1273900 Itsalie
Itsalie's picture


"It appears that the great unwind of the USD short trade is almost over, and from this point on it will be just the retails, the momos and the robots."

Very interesting and hopeful. Makes little sense that the great dollar short trade only started in Feb 2011; I thought every sow and its piglets were short since rumors of QE2 in Jul 2010, but I am not long gold nor silver, so wtf do I know.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 10:11 | 1274121 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

is that where the money went?

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 08:24 | 1274016 falak pema
falak pema's picture

We will now see a long sweet sinking of the USD provided no WW and no major disaster in Japan or ME...plenty of non monetary black swans around...but barring these...the USD sinks (with the assist of the Fed) and the world tries to move to a new reserve currency...based on something more solid... Can't see what this is but it could be PM (bimetallic or just gold). Who knows!

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 10:14 | 1274125 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

"...plenty of ... black swans around..."

I remember in the fall of '08, the dude on Bloomberg saying 'folks that is an 11-standard deviation move.'

;-)

- Ned

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 11:53 | 1276178 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

EUR/USD downtrend is gaining momentum as the overdue USD rally I forecast develops.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

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