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On the spin
So I was out of touch for seven hours or so. I check in with the news
sources just now on all the stories that matter. Unbelievable how much
things have changed in a third of a day. Even more unbelievable is that
all of the news is good.
First of is the No Fly (“NF”). Jim Cramer said on the TV the other day that as soon as the NF is announced, it is off to the races.
The NF means that all that Libyan crude and gas is coming back on line
in just a few days. Any supply issues that were nagging the market have
been relived by just the news. Oil should be under 90 and headed to 80
in just the next few weeks!
There is also very reassuring news on the Japan nuke front. None other
than the leader of the free world has spoken. Obama has made it very
clear that there is no risk of radiation on US soil. From Hawaii to Guam
and Samoa. From Alaska down to the coast of Mexico. Not any place where
the American flag flies is there ANY risk of exposure that would/could
have a medical consequence. This is very reassuring news. There is no risk what so ever to America. None.
Important developments at the failed nuke site. There are now 300
hundred people attempting to deal with the problem. As one news report
highlighted this is a 600% improvement in just 24 hours. Clearly progress is being made.
We now have fire trucks on location that are able to squirt water on the
stricken reactors and storage sites. I was not aware that this
technique could be so successful. Apparently putting out a 3,000 degree
fire of boiling spent rods is not as difficult as first thought. Even
better is the helicopter. The pictures I saw showed that the Huey was
able to drop the water with pinpoint accuracy. Not a drop was wasted. What an elegant solution.
The final bit of info that should bring a resolution to the nuke
problems is that the French have airlifted in 100 tons of boric acid.
Just in case that might not prove to be enough the S. Koreans are
sending another 56 tons. Problem solved.
Once again I am surprised. I thought boric acid was only useful for
killing cockroaches. Some say it can be helpful with a yeast infection.
But now we know that old-fashioned 20 Mule Team Borax is all that is
needed to absorb any unwanted radiation.
The now, more than adequate, water supply coupled with the magic of
borax creates the favorable status that bankers refer to as “Two ways out”. Lawyers think of it as, “Belt and suspenders”. There are options, there are solutions, there’s little risk.
The final bit of data is that the G7 Central Bankers are now acting as one in coordinated global currency intervention. This truly is good news.
The steady hands of the central bankers have eliminated downside market
risk. With the risk now behind us only the upside is left. The Yen
carry trade now has the blessings of all those well meaning central
bankers. We know how powerful a force this can be. This is the “stealth”
QE3-4 that Bernanke desperately needs and wants. The circumstances will
give him good “cover”. When global inflation ratchets up again as a
result of the Free Money Card from the G7 Ben can say, “Don’t blame me. It was the other guys that made me do it”.
A look at the latest “smart thoughts” from virtually every
financial institution and TV talking head is that the tragic events of
the past few weeks can lead to only one conclusion. Global growth is about to explode. Yes there may be a hiccup for a bit, but the future is as bright as it has been for some time.
Not one fucking word of this is true. It will take years
for those nukes to cool down. There is more risk in front of us than
behind. The resources being brought to bear are inadequate. There is no
quick fix, including borax. I truly hope the winds will always be
favorable. But that is just a hope. If the citizens decide they want to
be at least 200 miles away it would have major consequences to the
capital and the country. There is no Japanese growth story until the
nuke issue has been resolved.
In a few hours NATO forces will take out the airports and anti-aircraft
installations in Libya. I have no doubt that they will control the
skies. But they will not strafe forces loyal to Ghadaffi. They will not
put boots on the ground. The civil war in Libya just got notched up, not
down. Where is the next NATO No Fly? Jordon? Syria? Bahrain? Algeria?
How about Iran? A few big protests over there and all we have to do is
send in a carrier or two and do the No Fly?? We shall see if this leads
to stability in the ME. I see it is as an act of desperation. One that will bring significant negative consequences.
The G7 lit a fire tonight. I think this was also an act of desperation. When markets don’t do what they want Central Bankers come to the rescue. They fix the markets. Just like that. They buy stability with printed money. And they tell you there is no cost to it. Simply not true.
Those bankers that are spinning a tale of upside opportunity are an
interesting part of the mix. You don’t normally see them coming out of
the woods together like this. The noise from the “good news” boys seems a bit too orchestrated for me. One thing that may be a factor is the calendar for new issues, secondary’s and big syndicate bond deals. There is a ton of paper that wants/needs to get sold. It is sitting on the shelf waiting for a window. Those bankers have a good reason not to rain on their parade. But really, how can they be so confident when there is so much uncertainty?
Sorry for the rant. I’ve been around for a bit. I’ve always made note of the events that shape us. Never in my life have I seen so much spinning and manipulating.
It is coming from heads of state, government officials, central
bankers, commercial bankers and the press. It will be interesting to see
how long the spinning and manipulating will work. Not long is my guess.
Spin, Spin and more Spin
»
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NPR's CEO Schiller said (on tape) that they didn't need government funding...he should know ;-)
I thought it was the "other" Schiller - the doofus fund raiser - that said that; not the CEO. And your "he" is a she - Vivian?? Details matter if you're going to get it straight.
Ahhh...you are correct, he was not the CEO, he was a Senior Vice President with NPR...I was thinking of Vivian who also stepped down shortly thereafter.
Quite the kerfuffel eh?
So, what is your opinion of the government funding a media source and freedom of the press?...do you think they can be unbiased and objective when covering a story relating to government when a large part of their "revenue" comes from same?
Because details do matter, don't they? ;-)
Confetti Paper
In fewer words the printing of much more confetti paper to be used to pay for real materials ie, oil, gasoline, heating oil, gold silver wheat corn rice sugar coffee.........Starbucs is about to get at least as expensive as it was it was when i was in Japan.
For the record; long AUD/JPY 77.75 (stp 76.55), short USD/CAD 0.9850 (stp 0.9990), long USD/JPY 80.90 (stp 79.90), long EUR/USD 1,4065 (stp 1.3950), long AUD/USD 0.9915 (stp 0.9750), long OIL 101.25 (no stop).
This is a risk $1 for a probale return for 4, maybe more.
When the European markets open if the ECB fails to follow with support then it is sell sell sell and don't fucking stop selling.
US equity futures are already primed for a BIG run up on tomorrows New York session. OIL too.
Thanks for all of your great insights, Bruce.
_____________
PS........did get burned on 2 MoFo eMiniDow shorts earlier today........pissed me off too.......did get it all back with the reversals post printing confetti coordination.........it's not all roses, you know. trading is a business of refining one mistake after another and learning to love it.
I remember when the average citizen knew that debt was dangerous. I remember when we saved for things that we wanted to buy. I remember when it was a big deal that a government ran even a small deficit. I'm fifty. How did we get so far off track. It's surreal.
deleted / double post
Please, please let me tell you how we got so far off track : ROBERT RUBIN , bankster . Strong dollar policy my ass ........ I will not be able to sleep until I see him behind bars.
You're in for a lot of sleepless nights I'm afraid.
I'm four years older than you. I remember the exact same things you do. A lot of factors contributed to us getting so far off track but I think most of it is because we've suffered an insidious brainwashing, reinforced by the use of credit cards.
How did we get so far off track? A clever chap by the name of Keynes thought saving was just so bourgeous, that he spent his entire life coming up with a sophistical form of economics that proved it was unnecessary. Our 'representatives' then took the ball and ran with it.
Keynes is getting a bad rap, but he never advocated borrowing or printing to stimulate the economy. His recommendation was for governments to save up surplusses during the good times and overspend during the bad times.
We all know how that worked out - "the party never ends!"
Yep, that works for whenever some gubber entity has saved money.
They used his flawed model to act on their own agenda.
They use multiple logic traps, to get the sheeple pacified.
It's easy. Like taking candy from a candyass.
I can tell you guys are just inching towards the truth. It seems you're still a bit surprised that free markets don't exist. Your comment regarding Keynes is very revealing - it demonstrates you're not quite there yet.
Let me paraphrase Voltaire: "If debt did not exist we'd have to invent it". In other words, Keynes was merely the vehicle in which to justify and promote debt. His theories are critical to banking interests because it gives legitimacy to their actions.
However, if he hadn't postulated his theory, bankers would have simply sponsored someone else. Once you understand that the entire point is debt über alles, then you will begin to see how the world works.
INO, stay out of debt.
Hold cash, gold, other decent hard assets and profitable bearing companies!
Word.
I hear ya brother...
Love those old school pieces...NYC baby
In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
STFR ! Sell the fukin rally !
I empathize--the really scary thing is that so many people have no critical thinking skills and as such, take the steady spoon feeding of lies from most media and digest it about as well as digesting a sack of granite.
I pray for everyone's critical thinking skills to catch up to the requisite level to deal with the massive lies we are all fed each day.
Harmlessly passing your time in the grassland away;
Only dimly aware of a certain unease in the air.
You'd better watch out!
There may be dogs about
I looked over Jordan, and I've seen
Things are not what they seem.
That's what you get for pretending the danger's not real.
Meek and obedient you follow the leader
Down well trodden corridors into the valley of steel.
What a surprise!
A look of terminal shock in your eyes.
Now things are really what they seem.
No, this is not a bad dream.
Sheep,Pink Floyd
How apropos...
I have always loved Pink Floyd (and Leonard Cohen).
¨Bad Moon Rising¨by CCR appropriate now too...
Simply, a fantastic post!
A great article, yes. The spin and hype are about to go into HYPE-ER drive.
Coming to a blog (ZH?) near you!
From Ed Steer this morning:
This is not immediate news for a lot of us, but it is the most recent report.
lol! olde newz, indeed! i'm gonna file Ed Steer right next to Harry Shearer!
wow...the future is so bright, I gotta wear shades!
Agreed.....a great timely post. Isn't it what we are all thinking?
I guess the only way things could get even better is if the San Andreas fault ruptured and California falls into the sea. Just imagine how "GREAT" that would be for the global economy.
I woke up this morning with the same thoughts as Bruce. G7 coming to the rescue means to me.... the final nail in the free market. If the equivalent of three, Three-Mile Islands makes the market go up, then the whole fucking thing is one giant sham.
Why look at earnings? Why look at GDP? Why look at any fundamentals or global events?
Finally, I calmed myself and just thought....... Gold and Silver bullion. When you can't believe anything else, you can believe in the heft of metal. What else is there? Dow 25,000 just means a loaf of bread will be $25. The higher it goes from this point forward, means you're net worth will fall equivalently.
I know this has been going on for a couple years already, but I still had hope. The Tsunami washed all my illusions away. The free markets are gone, swallowed whole, cast out to sea, glowing on the bottom of the ocean.
Great post. I guess we are all starting to feel this way. I have all but stopped reading the news because it doesn't change. I almost got George Bush and Barack Obama mixed up yesterday as I was reading about Libya. Then when I read that this administration is giving unwarranted wiretapping access to the entertainment industry so they can catch people streaming content I figured now there really is no difference between Republicans and Democrats. Disney has its own Patriot Act!
Just in case you want to start your day off discombobbled:
http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2011/03/ccia-copyright-wiretaps-...
Or how about Obama sending drones into Mexico to gather intelligence on the narcoticts trade.
Ditto, from me Bruce! Only one complaint though..
As you were heavy into the sarcasm territory you left this one hanging there. It simply needs to be fixed. Pun it up!
You can't stick "explode" and "future is as bright" without making a reference to irradiated Japan?!? Especially because of the context of the message.
Bruce,
When this f#ckin thing, we called the world economy explodes and we see the US dollar downgraded or enter a 40% stock market correction, what do you think is going to happen to PMs? Are they going to the moon or to a meltdown. I understand that when a crash comes, a lot of robot trading will take over and cause PMs to drop due to liquidation, but what next?
by web boton Thu, 03/17/2011 - 23:28
#1069920
Bruce,When this f#ckin thing, we called the world economy explodes and we see the US dollar downgraded or enter a 40% stock market correction, what do you think is going to happen to PMs?
Hey Web Bot,
You can expect PM's to drop on paper spot.
However, you can be damn sure that the spread between paper and physical prices will become further apart than Betty Crockers legs right before mentruation..
PMs will fall in a currency collapse, but stocks and sovereign debt will fall much more. PMs are the only thing that will retain some value for sure. Failed companies don't come back to life, but PMs can do so.
And if PMs fall a lot... well, then you can buy more. You always buy, and don't play games with the market. PMs are for savings, not for speculation.
we.. if the Byrds were still around, they could re-do their song "Turn, turn, Turn" to Spin, Spin, Spin".
8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Akoukq5DvAE
I'm rather expecting a remake of 'Eve of Destruction' though singing about bond spreads, GDP to Debt ratios and exchange rates maybe vexing to a lyricist.
Then we'll close with the Roy Orbison classic, "It's Over."
Followed by the Doors' "The End" as an encore. And then, as they say, Elvis leaves the building.
ARCH ENEMY - My Apocalypse
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZM-d2qD15E
ahhhhh, Arch Enemy is beast!
<3 Angela
Yes, well that is all nice and good.
But ask the man if he owns gold, and if he says yes, pat him three times on the head. Then ask of the man who owns gold if he also owns a gun to keep it safe, and if he answers no follow him home, and rob the dumb son of a bitch.
long gold let your insurance policy be a firearm.
+1407 Pamp Suisse + 3 screw Ruger Blackhawk Dragoon frame 44 mag. I call it my Allstate/Clint Eastwood insurance policy. Ben, Go a head Punk Make my day. Funny the gun even has a medallion of a black Swan on it. How fitting. http://www.gunblast.com/Ruger_Flattop44.htm
tyler is gonna get the pull-itZer 4 sure: free fuking speech and five fuking words: "a clusterflock of black swans."
bruce had a bad day fishing: only one little fish; with 2 little headz!
+ $1420 @ Gold Eagle
and
one 9mm Beretta and one AK-47 clone with lots of ammo for each.
My portfolio is backed by gold and my gold is backed by lead. You probably don't want to follow me home.
This.
Gold coins are credit default swaps on US treasuries.
Your description was incomplete.
I'll help you improve it
Ask anyone who owns gold whether they wake up in the middle of the night, stricken with worry what events in the world, or what our central bankers are planning to do will do to their gold.
Gold is not an investment, it's an insurance policy against the lunacy of our central planners. Like all insurance policies, the value prior to the event is significantly lower than the value afterwards.
Very eloquently and succinctly stated, Man. Thank you.