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Spot Gold Surges, UniCredit Sets New 2012 Price Target Of $1,600

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Gold is rapidly approaching its all time high intraday high (and someone please inform Dennis Gartman that Gold in euro terms is close to its record again), as spot has surged $12 in a few minutes and is now near $1,260 (record intraday was $1,265 set back in June). In addition to the CHF and the JPY, gold is once again the safety trade. This comes hot on the heels of the recent report issued by UniCredit SpA’s Jochen Hitzfeld, the
most accurate gold forecaster tracked by Bloomberg in the last
three quarters, in which the analyst raised his estimate for the metal’s average
price next year by 12 percent to $1,400 an ounce, and for 2012 to $1,600. As the full report below indicates, the surge will be helped by concern about the effect of government economic-
stimulus plans and speculation about increased demand in China,
the world’s second-largest buyer after India. Hitzfeld also is so daring as to think what will happen when actual demand, and not central bank interventions, sets the price of gold: "gold supply will increasingly be determined by investors. Twenty years from now, investors will probably find it hard to imagine that there was once a time when jewelry demand determined one of the world’s most important asset classes. If investors were to switch only 1% of the global market capitalization of equities and bonds into gold, at the current gold price of around USD 1,250 per troy ounce, this would translate into demand of 36,000 tons. According to the US Geological Survey, this is roughly equivalent to the known gold reserves. In reality, however, there will be a mix of gold purchases and increases in gold prices. At a gold price of USD 2,500, only 18,000 tons of gold would be required to reach a share of 1%." But you still can't eat the damn thing!

Full UniCredit report

 

 


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Tue, 09/07/2010 - 08:53 | Link to Comment Goldenballs
Goldenballs's picture

Up,up and away (again).Where,s Johnny Bravo ?

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 08:56 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Lurking under any number of aliases.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:25 | Link to Comment mrgneiss
mrgneiss's picture

JB reacting to today's rise in the gold price: "It's just a fib retracement to the _ _ . _ _ % levels from the July lows"

The beauty of this argument is that many numbers can be inputted into the blanks!

However, as we all know looking at the big picture this has nothing do to with gold, its just fiat that is tanking.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:02 | Link to Comment Quintus
Quintus's picture

He'll be back.  If gold went to $1,000,000/oz he'll be here warning us that it's about to crash to only $600,000 "Any day now".

They're very persistent as a breed, those gold bashers.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:35 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

They're very persistent as a breed, those gold bashers.

I wouldn't call him that. Maybe a genetic mutation caused by stray comic rays or a DARPA science experiment gone horribly wrong.

Just kidding JB, we love ya......like a stomach virus :>)

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:37 | Link to Comment Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

They're very persistent as a breed, those gold lovers.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Quintus
Quintus's picture

That is true, but we keep ourselves to ourselves, and do not, as a rule, spend our time on Equity and Bond related blogs telling everyone there that they are idiots and are going to lose all their money 'Any day now'.

This behavioral trait is unique to gold bashers.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 10:09 | Link to Comment fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

FYI:

 

Equity and Bond investors are idiots and are going to lose all their money 'Any day now'

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Quintus
Quintus's picture

This is, of course, self-evident, but for the full 'johnny Bravo' experience, it's no good posting that here.  

You need to find a blog where Equity or Bond investors hang out and make 100 posts a day explaining to the poor dumb b*****ds why they are about to lose their money.

If, perchance, their investments actually move higher, disappear for a couple of days, revise higher your target for how low the crash will take their investment, then continue posting.

You may find that your own portfolio returns drop off somewhat, as you will be spending all your time reading and posting about something you have no interest in or exposure to, but it's a price worth paying to enlighten those misguided souls.  A form of charitable donation, you might almost say.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 11:32 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Listen, all you insensitive bastards!  Johnny is here to help his fellow man.  He neglects his studies and his investments for our own good.  Hardly an activity that deserves the vitriol.  Now if we could just get him to go away...

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 16:33 | Link to Comment Bow Tie
Bow Tie's picture

new rising wedge.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 13:12 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Thank God for that when all along I'd worried about it being angels playing HAARPs.  I gotta think this through. 

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Rick64
Rick64's picture

Where,s Johnny Bravo ?

School started again.  

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 12:19 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Exactly. Ole JB was blogging out of his parents home (basement I suspect) which he let slip once or twice. The wonderful thing about youth, and I was there at one time as were we all, is that we're invincible and always right, until were wrong. But the hormones assure a short memory and an unbridled passion to tell the world of our brilliance.

Many of us survived our youth. Others are still within it's grasp. Still us are taking daily injections and are reliving the glory days hopped up on testosterone drugs.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 08:58 | Link to Comment GlassHammer
GlassHammer's picture

See spot

See spot run

Run spot run

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 10:29 | Link to Comment iota
iota's picture

Now haz my lolz for the day.

http://il.youtube.com/watch?v=1D_bUdaneqE

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:01 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Twenty years from now, investors will probably find it hard to imagine that there was once a time when jewelry demand determined one of the world’s most important asset classes.

Let me fix this.

Twenty years from now, investors will probably find it hard to imagine that there was once a time when false demand and supply impulses propagated by the Fed, other central banks and their lackeys, such as JPM, Goldman etc determined the artificial price of one of the world’s most important asset classes.

Better. Anyone else wanna try? :>)

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:05 | Link to Comment bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

i'll try.

20 years from now most investors probably still won't have a clue either way.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Touche.

I surrender to the mighty bigdumbnugly. :>)

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 10:08 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Twenty years from now, the "golden class"will wonder what the "paper class" were thinking by not owning gold at the start of the "golden age". 

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 10:56 | Link to Comment TGR
TGR's picture

That got me thinking; people grow into their 'golden years', get a golden handshake, have golden anniversaries, get 'gold' medals for first place in competitions, say things like "as good as gold" etc - there's plenty of everyday reminders as to the status of gold embellished somewhere within our culture.

yet there's still people who bash it or eschew it for paper illusions.

 

Strange world.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 11:35 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

And the king of them all:  The "gold standard of...".  It's a commonly used term to describe the best of the best.  For damn good reason.  ZH is the gold standard of financial sites.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 12:24 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I'll never forget about a year ago some brillant mind (aka CNBC "guest host") was beating up on Gold while pushing technology. The kicker was when he said something along the lines of "The Gold standard for tech stocks is.....".

Suddenly my morning coffee went down the wrong pipe and I was gasping for air while at the same time I was trying to laugh. :>)

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 16:05 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I remember that as well they were bashing gold and insinuating it was a barbarous relic, the old song and dance.  It was only this year maybe a few months ago or so.  I can try to find it it was shared on ZH.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 11:57 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

For some kids, the only experience they have with gold is golden showers.  This must be a contributing factor to their extreme distaste for gold.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 13:14 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

dis-taste

Oh my, that's just wrong.  I hope it's not Dr. Freud talking.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:01 | Link to Comment JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Probably a new high today and silver at $20. Wow.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 11:50 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Exempted prop desks everywhere trying hard today.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:02 | Link to Comment taraxias
taraxias's picture

But.....but.....but Johnny Bravo said it was going to $900

 

It looks like Alf has got more brains than Robo. Soft porn anyone?

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 15:28 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

I can fap to that. Or fap turbo to that.

http://www.fapturbo.name/

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:08 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

Very nice.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:09 | Link to Comment Thorlyx
Thorlyx's picture

Gold, bitchez!

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:09 | Link to Comment qussl3
qussl3's picture

Anyone get the feeling that TPTB are playing the same bagholder game with retail but instead of equities its now paper gold?

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:14 | Link to Comment LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Hey!  Put Karl Denninger on that information list with Dennis Gartman.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:17 | Link to Comment Sherman McCoy
Sherman McCoy's picture

This trade is beginning to seem quite herdish. Is Soros, Paulson, Tudor, Ackman, et al ad nauseum, ad infinitum going to give you the heads up when they get out?

p.s. I was long until i looked at the px in euros and got nose bleed.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:20 | Link to Comment Quintus
Quintus's picture

If you can call the (probably) 1% of investors who have any exposure to gold at all a 'Herd'.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:32 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Black sheep herd.

Once you go black...

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 10:05 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

If most well educated people bought life insurance, would that too be bullish?

Gold is not being purchased by the informed as an investment but as insurance.

You dont buy gold to make money, you buy gold because you have money.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 10:30 | Link to Comment Monetary Lapse ...
Monetary Lapse of Reason's picture

+1260

"you buy gold because you have money"

 

So simply stated... and so true.  The only thing I would add is, "you buy Gold because you have money", and you are prescient enough to realize that Fiat, and other Fiat-backed forms of investment, are not reliable stores of value in the current environment.       

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 11:06 | Link to Comment Anton LaVey
Anton LaVey's picture

You could also say: "You buy Gold because you have wealth, and you want insurance that this wealth is not going to evaporate tomorrow".

Money and wealth are not the same. Money is a way to count wealth, to ascertain its value, so to speak. Money comes and go, but wealth should remain.

This is exactly the reasoning I had a few years ago, when I looked around at the crisis and realized I needed something serious to protect whatever little wealth I had from the economic disaster I saw unfolding.

I started buying Gold and Silver several years ago and I have had no reason to regret that decision yet.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Suspicion toward a currency, once awakend, develops insomnia. - James Dines.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 11:41 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Gold is a magnificent soporific.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 16:24 | Link to Comment nuinut
nuinut's picture

Gold is crystalized wealth, removed from the system entirely by its owner, and ready to be deployed back into said system at the discretion of its owner.

Should the system crash and massively deflate in gold while the gold owner holds their wealth outside the system, well good for them, eh?

This is golds function, to hold wealth securely outside the system, and in the performance of this function it finds its value. Should the system have a massive meltdown, then golds value will have been demonstrated to be exceptionally high, no?

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 11:38 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

...Soros, Paulson, Tudor, Ackman, et al

That's not a "herd".  That's a who's-who of investors.  And, no, they will not let you know when to exit.  It wouldn't matter because in a bubble nobody would listen.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:20 | Link to Comment ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

The Golden Scythe is hunting down Blythe. You can run, but you can't hide.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:27 | Link to Comment mrgneiss
mrgneiss's picture

In her case its actually a silver scythe.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:26 | Link to Comment Amsterdammer
Amsterdammer's picture

I'm no member of the GATA, but another variable

to incorporate in this analysis is that world central banks hold

bank gold assets amount to 32,000 metric tons.

The rumourmill is back: Gold and Silver Trading biggest

scam in history

httphttp://www.huffingtonpost.com%2Ftom-pappalardo%2Fgold-silver-trading-big...

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:37 | Link to Comment What_Me_Worry
What_Me_Worry's picture

Paper gold and silver trading is one of the biggest financial scams in history.  Truly a ponzi scam and the best part is, (almost)everyone already knows it and goes on trading it anyways.

Everyone thinks they are the smartest guy in the room.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 10:38 | Link to Comment Anton LaVey
Anton LaVey's picture

To which the standard answer would be: watch the show when everyone starts running for the exit... at the same time

This will make the scenes near the Titanic life boats positively tame & polite by comparison.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 13:18 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

It's coming, sooner than you think.  Once silver pops $20 and stays there for a few days, it will unleash a Tsunami.  I wonder if Ben and Timmie can breathe under water?

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:31 | Link to Comment Hall 9000
Hall 9000's picture

Michael Burry, Predictor of Mortgage Collapse, Bets on Farmland and Gold

Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- "Michael Burry, the former hedge-fund manager who predicted the housing market’s plunge, said he is investing in farmable land, small technology companies and gold as he hunts original ideas and braces for a weaker dollar.

It’s possible Burry is part of “an extremely small group” of economists and investors who are “really exceptionally adroit” at forecasting, former fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said in April. Burry has been critical of the role Greenspan played in fueling the crisis with low interest rates.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-07/michael-burry-predictor-of-mort...

 

 

 

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 10:38 | Link to Comment andyupnorth
andyupnorth's picture

Burry for president!

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 10:39 | Link to Comment fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

Good link. Thanks. This is what I am having in mind. But farmlands don't come cheap unless produce prices triple from here.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 09:40 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Actually you can eat gold and it's even good for you.

http://www.businessinsider.com/2009/1/rich-people-still-eating-gold

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 10:52 | Link to Comment Hall 9000
Hall 9000's picture

Silly you can't eat gold, you inject it as GOLD SODIUM THIOMALATE.

It's fallen out of use as a therapy for Rheumatoid arthritis.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 10:04 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Fasten seat belts bitches!

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 10:26 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Methinks it was a great decision to start buying PMs in 2003! Buy the dips! Gartman is a moron when it comes to gold....

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 10:37 | Link to Comment DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

Johny Bravo isn't available for comment as he is cleaning my toilets right now. When he's done with that he has to hand pick all the crab grass out of my lawn.

 

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 11:02 | Link to Comment GoldSilverDoc
GoldSilverDoc's picture

Why do we always have to hear the inane "you can't eat it" comment about gold?  That has to be the stupidest, most idiotic, most irrelevant non-sequitur continually flailed by the believers in fiat currency.

You can't eat paper either.

You can't eat numbers in a computer representing "dollars" either.

But you can trade all three for food, whenever you want to.

So to you morons out there who REALLY BELIEVE that allowing your money to be controlled by some bunch of politicians and dimwitted "economists" is a GOOD idea - try to find a new argument.

 

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 11:12 | Link to Comment SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

A spike in gold to kick off the weeks treasury auctions... very good news if it holds!

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 11:21 | Link to Comment Tarheel
Tarheel's picture

i sold at $1261 this morning since the RSI-9 was over 82. The last time we hit a new high we had a fierce selloff so I hope to rebuy if that happens

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 11:48 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Sold what exactly?  Gold Eagles?  Some K-rands?  What did you sell?

What will you buy back if gold "price" retreats?

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 12:00 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

I hope you can find a seller if/when gold retreats.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 15:00 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

It works.  Until it doesn't any more. 

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 13:11 | Link to Comment ZEITGEIST
ZEITGEIST's picture

hey Johhny..where are you..Bravo..you have disappeared...thank goodness..may you never come back again.with your jiberish crap ...now go away and stay away..you lil fool

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 18:18 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

I think he's out shopping for zit cream.

His latest brand stopped working, just like all the others.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 13:15 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

You can't eat it, but one coin may buy you a loaf of bread before the end of this decade.

Wed, 09/08/2010 - 11:30 | Link to Comment Anton LaVey
Anton LaVey's picture

Nah. Silver will be for the day-to-day purchases.

Gold will be for long-term investing. When everyone goes crazy for Gold and disses the stock market, when even CNBC says that Gold is the only worthy investment, and one whose price can only go up, THAT will be the signal to sell most Gold holdings and re-enter the real estate and stock markets.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 13:28 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

You can't eat it, you can't put it in your gas tank, you can't buy groceries with it, it's been a bad investment for those who bought at the peak in 1980, and if it comes to that, you should stock up on canned food and shotguns instead.

Have I covered all the reasons why you shouldn't buy gold? Funny how it keeps going up, year after year, for this past decade.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 14:52 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Supply and demand is not necessarily the determining factor in "price".

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 15:51 | Link to Comment Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

This is what happens when, the Gold Suppression Regime stops interviening for 1.2 secs

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 17:38 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

DOW/S&P500/FTSE/EURO short signal continues:

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!