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Spread Between Seasonally And Non-Seasonally Adjusted Insured Unemployment Surges To Multi-Decade High
The notable fudge factor in today's initial claims report had nothing to do with EUCs or continuing claims (people are now rolling off both faster than ever), but the spread between the Seasonally and Non-Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate. As the DOL indicates, the Seasonally Adjusted Ins. Unemployment rate was 4.6%, while the Non-Seasonally Adjusted equivalent came in at 3.5%: a 110 bps spread. The last time the delta was so wide was back in January 1992!
Also curiously, the DOL reported that while the SA number increased by a "mere" 11,000, the NSA number went up by a whopping 156,165. Also notable, the while the combined SA unemployment on January 2 was 4.6 million, the NSA equivalent was 6 million: a 714,924 delta from the December 26 week alone!
And here is a chart indicating how wide the spread has gone in the past year.
While the SA-NSA differential is nothing new, and as the charts above indicate it is a recurring feature as the DOL attempts to normalize for seasonal data, the likelihood now is that the SA number is substantially underestimating the true picture in term of job eliminations. With a major downward adjustment coming from the BLS in February, and especially if those discouraged from working attempt at rejoining the work force, we expect the bottom to fall off from the employment market, precisely at a time when the political tensions ahead of mid-term elections hit fever pitch.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SboRijhWFDU&feature=related
There is no recovery until people can get a job if they want one.
That is not true today.
Steve Liesman, CNBC, 1022ET: 'Many more unemployed than we thought...' He even had charts and graphs!
The question is who told nice-guy, factotum Steve to finally start telling the truth?
Last week's footnote:
2 - Most recent week used covered employment of 131,823,421 as denominator.
This week's:
2 - Most recent week used covered employment of 130,128,328 as denominator.
The delta is 1,695,093. Just a few Obachickens going homing to roost...
It's a good thing that we had Bush for the last eight years, speaking of chickens coming home to roost.
Now we're going to get Sarah "don'tchaknow also" Palin to lead us all!
Dude, the "It's All Bush's Fault"(tm) whine passed it's freshness date at least 6-months ago. Move on.
If the constant self-serving blame game was over...then yes.
btw...the game
If that is the case we should blame the founding fathers for starting the county.
GE can't tell them not to do so anymore ;)
He got the call from 33 Liberty (or where ever the hell they've relocated to) or one of his Jackson Hole/Maine fishing camp masters and they told him, "All clear, let 'er rip."
How can we get these numbers to get around all the data fudging: How many people ARE employed? And how much money are they making, in aggregate?
I noticed the big decline in even the EUC numbers, and thought, uh oh. That means people are rolling off even those roles.
One idea for a good post is a study of all the different EUC rules, that would be helpful, doesn't the program vary by state? Seems to me you really get fucked if you are unemployed in a state with a relatively low unemployment rate, but I just don't know the details.
The declines in folks collecting either state or federal benefits combined with the lack of jobs is consistent with the increases in food stamp recipients. I realize there is significant overlap, but I would image there are some whose pride prevents them from collecting food stamps while still getting some income, once even that income is gone they have no choice.
It really is a sad situation our elites have put us in, I am suprised daily there is not an armed revolt. Maybe they really are putting something in the drinking water.
You bring up very good points. Its like people are defeated, there is no will to fight back anymore... I sense hopelessness everywhere I go, like people have just been beaten into submission.
Nope, everyone is just waiting for the first Psycho to pull the trigger. Then it will be game on. It's not hopelessness, people just don't want to be the ones to fire the first (Actual) shot. Whenever the first "shot" is fired, millions will follow thereafter.
as if it weren't bad enough.
http://abcnews.go.com/story?id=7452561
"Michele Brown has seen Americans' struggles with jobs first hand. She lives in hard-hit Florida, spent 20 years in the real estate business and recently had her days as a nanny cut back after her boss had his own hours reduced.
But nothing prepared her for what happened one day when she called a toll-free line to inquire about her food stamps.
"The woman who answered the phone -- it's not like she wasn't nice or anything -- but it was kind of evident that she wasn't in the States," Brown said.
It turns out the woman was at a JP Morgan Chase call center in India."
"I would image there are some whose pride prevents them from collecting food stamps while still getting some income, once even that income is gone they have no choice."
Anecdotally, you're right. Last year I bought a house in LaGrange County in rural NE Indiana as a hedge. Despite massively bad UE numbers since Summer '08 and a glut of homes/cars for sale there, I never once saw food stamps (EBT/SNAP card).
Strange. LaGrange has a 14% U-3 fig, yet just 6% of folks are on food stamps. "Pride" is right.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/11/28/us/20091128-foodstamps.html
http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/_national/stress_index_premium/
The unemployment report from the DOL is incomplete, and always has been. The statistical methods and polling approach are questionable. Also, the more they play around with the model, the more useless the results seem to get. It is just not an accurate picture. The problem is when the government sets policy based on bad data. Because the numbers do not give an accurate picture.
Both the states and the BLS know how many people are falling off the rolls. They just don't report it. But, what we know is that when you exceed EUC, depending on the state, your benefits end. In some of the more distressed state there are more state benefits available but usually at a reduced rate with some application changes.
Legislation was passed to extend EUC.
I do not have the bill number because I did not fully read it, but from what I know, the senate bill, signed into law by the President, extended unemployment beneftis for 14 weeks if you where collecting in 2009. This is the same bill that extended and expanded the anytime home buyer program. The extension will not last into the elections, but they know that the stimulus package will show a substantial increase in seasonal jobs come the spring.
Mark Beck
It's called Prozac. Check the prescription rates for antidepressants over the last couple of decades. Why bother putting it in the water if the people do it themselves?
"There is no recovery until people can get a job if they want one.
That is not true today."
No, it is not. We aren't concerned about the 'economy' any longer in terms that it was once known. Today. the 'economy' is a select subset of the population; it does not include the whole population or the whole country. Basically, it includes the group that can provide campaign funds...
We are all to busy watching American Idol to have time to revolt.
Dumb dum dum dum daaaaaa.
On another more serious note:
Let's pray for the people in Haiti today.
Amen on Haiti. I have a good friend who went down there last Saturday with her sister on a missionary trip - and they were right at the epicenter. Someone from her group got out a text that they were all OK Tuesday, but not a word since. Gotta put things in perspective I guess. At least we aren't Haiti -yet.
You only revolt when you got nothing to lose.
and as long there are people who got something to lose, you have people that revolt against the revolting people.
The reason the communists where able to take control in 1917 was because they where lucky enough to be able to kill the Tjar. If it took 12 more months, the other monarchs in Europe would have been able to prepare their armies and help russia. And history would be totally different.
And in the end, the once that still had something to lose defeated the once who did not.
I'll also tell you a little trick we do here to break any union protest this year: WE gave all the head of the union a company car. Guess what. They even helped us make the list to fire people to cut down.
As long as you got more then 15% of the population who enjoy luxery, you got enough people to hold down any revolt.
Ask yourself this: How many machine guns do you need to shoot down 10 unarmed people lined up in a row?
as tempting as it might be to charge the dol with intentional fraud, i think the real issue is incompetence - at least in this case. their seasonal adjusting models assume a normal economy...unfortunately the stupid folks at dol have not updated their models to assume that the usa is in a depression....hence the large disconnect between sa and nsa....of course it is to obushma's advantage to have a backwater statistical model but it does nothing to contribute to transparency....and it certainly is not a change on the dipshit's part.....
Maybe this explains the monster S&P purchase yesterday. Under this Administration uneployment is a leading indicator. Remember, if your neighbor is unemployed its a reccesion, if your unemployed its a depression.
"Out here in the fields, fighting for my meals"
- Lunatic Fringe
When do the 1 million census workers hit the payrolls?
DavidC
Right before the 'State of the Union' address - Obamao needs a 'Mission Accomplished' moment!
***On a side note, 'Idiocracy' has been playing on cable lately and I can't help but see how art, if it can be considered that, imitates real life. That movie may go down as a classic someday. Maybe Gonad-Sachs should buy adverstising at the 'State of the Union' address. Didn't they save the world?
They are definately fudging numbers so far the Federal revenues are coming in about 11% lower than 2009 at this point in January. Its kind of like the retail sales reports not matching falling state tax revenues for retail sales.
The country is like a ship at sea after it has gone through a hurricane.
The masts and rigging have been carried away, the rudder smashed, the crew is saddled with an incompetent captain and mate who are useless. The crew is bailing madly, but the water level in the hold is slowly gaining.
The push will come to shove when its time to take to the lifeboats - of which there are not enough. Someone will have to remain behind. Either voluntarily or through force. That's the point of ignition.
Where, who, when, these are the questions to be answered yet. That point is coming - make no mistake - it is coming.