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Sprott On Wither Green Shoots
By Eric Sprott And David Franklin, Sprott Asset Management
Wither Green Shoots
With the summer now upon us, the "Sell in May and Go Away" adage has proven itself true once again. The major market indexes are all turning downward, and while they haven’t dropped enough yet to warrant panic, we certainly want to be positioned properly if this trend continues into the fall. The market tea leaves are no longer sending mixed signals either – most of the new data is decidedly bearish. So what happened to all the ‘green shoots’? What happened to the strong recovery the market rally was promising?
Economic data released over the past two weeks have decimated any remaining belief in a lasting economic recovery. Slowdowns are appearing in the US, Europe, Japan and even China. Auto sales, housing starts, employment, consumer confidence, factory orders, consumer purchase intentions - just about every aspect of the economy that can be measured, is showing decided weakness.
Of particular interest to us over the past year has been the GDP forecasts released by The Consumer Metrics Institute in Colorado ("CMI"). CMI caught our attention with their real time tracking of consumer retail sales data. Consumer spending represents 70% of GDP, and that spending can provide great insight into the workings of the underlying economy. CMI’s retail sales data has indentified a long, negative contraction in the economy based on their data set for the last 180 days. This was confirmed most notably in Walmart’s poor first quarter sales results when CFO Tom Schoewe stated, "More than ever, our customers are living paycheck to paycheck."1 If that sentiment applies to other large retailers, it doesn’t bode well for 2010 GDP.
CMI also predicted 2010 Q1 GDP growth at 2.62% all the way back in November 2009. It took nearly seven months for the actual US GDP data to eventually be released, but when it finally did (after three revisions, no less) it turned out that CMI’s prediction was bang on. Interestingly, when the real data came out, CMI founder Rick Davis noted that the inventory component underlying the 2.7% Q1 GDP growth figure had moved from 1.65% up to 1.88% – meaning that the bulk of GDP growth, almost 66%, actually came from inventory swings rather than consumer demand. No wonder factory orders fell out of bed this past week! With the re-stocking complete, there aren’t enough new orders to clear the fresh inventory. And if two thirds of Q1 growth came from inventory swings (or just plain re-stocking etc.), it makes us wonder what we can realistically expect from the next two GDP announcements. CMI provided the following guidance for the balance of the year, stating that "We expect GDP growth to be flat for the second quarter, but with inventory adjustment reversals absolutely killing the reported ‘growth’ number just four days before the U.S. mid-term elections." If that turns out to be correct, it will be unfortunate timing for the elections.
An important question to ask is whether the March ’09 rally was really justified at all. Were the green shoots real? Or was the market just looking for a way to justify the effects of government-induced ‘easy money’? The stock market is supposed to be an efficient, forward-looking indicator after all – and the rally that began in March ’09 was supposed to signal a robust recovery. So where’s the recovery? From the time the term ‘green shoots’ was first uttered by Ben Bernanke on March 15, 2009, the S&P 500 rallied 36% to June 30, 2010 and by as much as 60% to April 26, 2010. If the green shoots were really just the early indications of weeds, was the market wrong to appreciate so dramatically?
There is little doubt that much of the stock market action during the past 12 months has defied traditional market rules. Nowhere is this more evident to us than in the banking stocks. We’re still scratching our heads on the whole sector. Readers may remember an article we wrote in November 2009 entitled "Don’t Bank on the Banks" in which we discussed the hazard of leverage in the banking system. If you gauge our conclusions by what actually transpired in the banking sector as a whole, we were essentially correct. Of the 986 bank holding companies in the US last year, a total of 980 of them LOST MONEY.2 And that’s even after all the government bailouts the sector received. Hmmmm. Robust banking recovery? Not a chance. However, the remaining six banks, all of which are "too big to fail", did manage to earn a combined $51 billion in 2009, sending their stocks soaring as a result. So despite 980 out of 986 bank holding companies returning nothing but red, the sector actually fared pretty well from a market perspective. Does this make any sense to you? Here we have an entire sector that is essentially broken; where a mere handful have maintained profitability not from their own strength but thanks to the taxpayers’ bailouts; and where the government is now aiming the most powerful of their regulatory reforms – and the market decides to pile into their respective equities?
The banking sector isn’t the only equity space that confounds us – the housing stocks are as equally absurd. Despite what you may have heard from your local real estate agent, the fundamentals for US housing are looking dismal. Ever since the tax credits have rolled off, new home sales are now running at 300,000 on a seasonally-adjusted annual rate ("SAAR"), representing a new all time low this past May. For comparison, this is down from an all time high of 1,389,000 new home sales made in July of 2004.3 Reading this, you may expect the home builder stocks to have performed poorly. But no, not in this market! As you can see in Chart A, from the day that Bernanke first saw his ‘green shoots’, the home builders index appreciated by 47% to June 30, 2010, peaking at 104% on April 23rd – all while new home sales were down 14% over the same time period on a SAAR basis.4 ‘The Market is Always Right’, as they say, but it simply can’t be with regard to these stocks. The housing ‘green shoots’ were the product of government initiative, rather than true fundamental improvement, and were thus short term in nature. Now that the government program has ended, the whole sector looks poised to fall apart.
At the end of the day, nobody should be surprised by the recent economic data. The stock market rally that began in March ’09 was driven by monetary phenomena rather than anything fundamental, and based on data from CMI for 2010 it appears that we have already entered an economic contraction phase. The market is now beginning to reflect the fact that the green shoots were actually just the early signs of weeds, and it would suffice to say that virtually all the major world governments have some serious gardening to do. The recent contractions don’t necessarily mean that we’ll experience a repeat of 2008’s stock market performance in 2010, but it does suggest that investors should question the real fundamentals underlying their investments, lest the market begins to trade on them again.
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1 Bustillo, Miguel (May 19, 2010) "Wal-Mart Same-Store Sales Fall" The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved on July 8, 2010 from: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703957904575252092724864622.html?KEYWORDS=wal-mart+struggles+to+to+keep+shoppers
2 Lenzner, Robert (June 3, 2010) "Six Giant Banks Made $51 Billion Last Year; The Other 980 Lost Money" Forbes. Retrieved on July 8, 2010 from: http://www.forbes.com/2010/06/03/goldman-sachs-citigroup-markets-lenzner-morgan-stanley_print.html
3 US New One Family Houses Sold Annual Total SAAR (Bloomberg: NHSLTOT)
4 As measured by the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index (Bloomberg: DJSHMB)
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There are no fundamental valuations in the market anymore.
It's all speculation and technicals.
Yes.
Among almost everyone I know, hardly anyone is buying or selling anything. It is now algo v. algo.
I mentioned on another thread, JB, that I have been looking at the VXX trade (snipe a couple of times a year) you mentioned a few weeks ago.
...
But, I am going to 7% of my wealth in Gold!
I would highly recommend the VXX!
The main advantage is that you can trade with the algos without getting too bogged down in individual data!
All you need are some three month charts and some technical patterns, and voila!
Just be careful though, and good luck to you!
By the way, it looks like the VIX is getting ready to move one way or another really soon!
I wouldn't say to go long VXX right now, but I think that we'll have another opportunity soon!
Just use tight stops!
DoChen
7% is a good start. I am aiming for 50% of my portfolio in PM by the middle of August. Then it is time to sit back and wait, evaluate, and then probably buy more.
I just can't find anything else convincing enough to invest in. It just seems all the other investment opportunities are mere frauds or illusions.
Why would anyone invest in wall street stocks? It's clearly rigged against the individual investor. Dave Rosenberg notes in his daily letter that funds are fleeing stocks for bonds and commodities. What's the old saying - "When in doubt, get out"?.
I'm out, baby!
Gary Shilling is my new superhero! Great comment on CNBC
Is this to what you refer?
Bull Market or BS?The calm before the market storm, with Gary Shilling, A. Gary Shilling & Co.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1539497256
Yes
The problems with fundamental analysis, among many other things, is determining the actual value of underlying assets and assessing sales and pricing power. Analysing financial stocks for example, is very difficult when the banks are allowed to create their own valuations models versus marking assets to market.
Technicals are in many instances useless due to constant market manipulation by agents working on behalf of the federal government and the privately owned fed. I believe that in the next few years, there will be a great revulsion against investing in the stock market by retail investors as the manipulations become more blatant.
I believe that in the next few years, there will be a great revulsion against investing in the stock market by retail investors
See my comment above. The future is now.
obama "recovery" on track; its an affirmative action economy - better than expected
pssst...the redneck is showing
I think this is our last bounce and we should be below 1000 by end of week. Lending is contracting, credit worthiness is deteriorating and the banks can no longer make the same trading revenue as they did last year. We are nearing 2 years of 0% fed window and nothing . The real tradedy and proof that the gov and Fed have no idea what they are doing is the coming destruction of those few remaining worth borrowers who are soon to be unemployed as the services economy contracts and home values plummet. Instead of rewarding savers which would have cured us we rewarded the same careless risk taking and lulled the oblivous under the "recovery" falsehoods. Yes sir they will stop at nothing to part the prudent and responsible form their cash to feed their debts and risk taking.
Look for student loans to implode since these kids have no jobs.
John,
"Look for student loans to implode since these kids have no jobs."
They will have jobs, Obama will use them for the NEW AMERICORPS.
True I forgot about the Americorps. Party on.
Yee ole double post... Damn NSA always messin' with my intra nets...
Obummer's Americorps
After the Democrat's November Shellacking Obummer won't be getting any Americrap funding through Congress...
Iran Bombing or No Iran Bombing...
Mr. Change will be a lame duck marking off the days until his well deserved 2012 defeat...
Obummer go home would be change you could believe in...
Problem Is,
"After the Democrat's November Shellacking Obummer won't be getting any Americrap funding through Congress..."
I may be incorrect,but wasn't the funding for this hidden in Obumma Care?.
Was it?
What would the logic be? Have Americrap process all the Obummer Screw Amerika "Health" Plan applications? Or just a pork fill?
I know Americrap has been around since Bubba Clinton... I know there are volunteers as well as paid interns.
Thanks for the tip. I'll look into that...
Americorps = Hitler Youth with a website
Our daughter lucked out (Class of 2009) and has a decent (not great) job. Many of her friends are having a real hard time. Two of her friends are overseas doing make work, but at least seeing new places, learning a language, etc.
Looks like it sucks to have a newly-minted BA now.
Re our domestic army: great, just great.
Hey Dos! If you guys in Texas take off, can I move back?
Do,
"Hey Dos! If you guys in Texas take off, can I move back?"
Damn straight, If'n you knows how to use fararms.......WELL.(:>)
AK-47 and 9mm Beretta. Call me an "Advanced Beginner".
OK, but which county... I have always liked Llano county... But, my wife would be bored to tears so far from a city.
Brownshirt Brigade!
What better way to create an internal national police force than in the face of lingering, drawn-out depression. Replace the old '30s CCC with the newly trained, starving college students manned, CPC (Civilian Peace Corps).
Unfortunately, student loans follow you until you die!
There's no getting out of these burdens for the millions of children that have been screwed with a lack of opportunity.
Tell me about it. I just got my undergrad a little over a year ago (great timing right) and had to accept a job that my yearly gross income is less than my student loans.
AUSTERITY BITCHEZ!!!
.< worlds smallest violin for firstdivision who didn't get his/her dream job.
At least you chose to enter the work force rather than retire in your parents basement. Kudos for that.
"you chose to enter the work force rather than retire in your parents basement. "
Alcoa Exceeds Earning Estimates on Strong Foil Sales
Increased sales of foil for protective head gear spurred higher earnings for Alcoa...
High unemployment has caused increased numbers of conspiracy theory bloggers to reside in their parent's basements.
nicely done, sir
You mean all those billions of dollars in aluminum were in tin foil hat sales to goldbugs?
Makes sense to me!
pan,
I agree,it's been at LEAST 10yrs since I heard this Stat.
Of ALL U.S.males, 40yrs and older, who never married, over 50% still lived at home.
I can only imagine what it is now.
Wasn't too long ago that we were snickering about the bamboccione.
Not so funny any more, eh?
BA is a very hard sell right now. But you have something.
I have found that focusing on how you do the existing job better, impressing those around you with your committment can work very well until opportunity comes to move on. If it is a job you can do almost automatically (boring) look at it as a opportunity to think and observe possibilities. My guess is that working people will be able to apply for extensions. I have one step son in law that has extended his for years but has finally connected after about 15 years of low paying jobs.
His low paying career path (that he liked and worked hard at) finally paid off with an unusual job offer.
Ding, fries are done.
Close to a 10% drop this week? no way. there are no players to sell.
wait for August.
What we really need is a good stock promotor like Bill Clinton back in charge.Boy could he make the markets go!!!
A market that works on any sort of logic implies that is healthy and serving it's primary function. Sadly, that is not the market today. No sense trying to apply business rationale to the market unless your business is that of electronic pirating! aaaarrrrrgggg.
There are no market longs anymore, just daytraders and pumpers. And the only reason they are surviving in this collapsing economy, is because anyone who buys fully believes the PPT is there to cover them. If there was no PPT, we would be at DOW 1000 by now. Once they realize the PPT is gone, and it will be very soon, watch how fast they stampede for the exits. Flash crash will look like someone did fat finger the button, as fast as this market will crash. Market is completely over-valued under any circumstances technically or fundamentally.
And who is one of the six out of 986 bank holding companies that did not lose money in 2009? Goldman Sachs. If the other 980 banks were run near as well as Goldman Sachs then perhaps we would not have had a financial crisis in the first place.
There is not enough room on the planet for another Goldman Sachs.
Goldman Sachs' balance sheet is relatively small in comparison with other large banks; there is plenty of room.
But it's also besides the point. What Goldman Sachs did, that the others (for the most part) did not, was manage their risk. Goldman Sachs is one of the only banks that marks assets to market continuously, and at a minimum daily. As such Goldman knows the risks it is taking, and it knows when risk positions are going against them, unlike the other banks that were caught with huge, deteriorating risk positions, and senior management was not even aware until it was "too late". That would not happen at GS.
I appologize if this truth interrupts the narrative.
I'd say it fits perfectly. Their track record is better than good. It's like it's almost too good. How'd they know they could get paid back from AIG via the state? How'd they know those securities would explode and to short housing? It's like they can't lose. And if someone tries to walk off with their crystal ball, the FBI brings it back the next day.
Doesn't anyone think the timing of Henry Paulson as Treasury Secretary was exquisite? Nice to have an alumni in the big seat before the big kahuna hits. And then little Henry leaves and goes around telling everyone how great he did with the crisis.
They did not get "paid back from AIG via the state". They got paid back by AIG; where AIG got it is not of Goldman's concern.
They did not "know those securities would explode". They facillitated a CDO at the request of clients, both of whom are big boys and agreed to the securities underlying the CDO. Goldman Sachs had no insight into the housing market better or worse than anyone else.
As to "It's like they can't lose", sure they can lose, but they don't as much as most because they know what they are doing.
I appologize if this truth interrupts the narrative.
Goldman Sachs alumni pulled the strings and made the utterly extraordinary decisions that gave AIG the money to hand to (surprise, surprise) Goldman Sachs.
And the poor taxpayer has no right be a weeny bit sceptical?
If you are going to play the truth card - AT LEAST BE HONEST!
Oh, come on, even I knew it was a housing bubble before it popped, along with a long list of no one listened to them, the biggest being ZH. No insight? How's about blind? Or, rather, they knew what was what, just like Tyler back in the day. Does anyone remember that rollercoaster tycoon simulation of the housing bubble years ago that was popular on the intertubes?
You really think they should had gotten a check at all from AIG. If I sell you a bad product, should I still get reimbursed from a third party after my product helps you fail, even if that third party wasn't insurance except that, I suppose, the state apparently does provide insurance for GS via the rest of population that isn't GS and company.
I'm not saying GS is evil. I really believe those guys were just acting as most people would in their situation and with a little brains. When you work in an environment where friendly competition means shorting your best friend and that's okay and everybody laughs and maybe he'll get you back next time, it's easy to forget about the collateral damage and that real people are impacted, especially when the effect is so indirect. As far as I know, GS isn't one of the big banks that operates in more direct, sinister ways. I doubt they would ever hire a hitman or try to fund both sides of a war, but I could be wrong.
Goldman Sachs had nearly $13 billion dollars worth of notional exposure on against one counter party. Regardless of whether or not you think they used their political influence to ensure a federal bailout so that they could recoup that money, any risk manager in the world will tell you that having that kind of risk on against one counter party is completely asinine.
Owning large swaths of the government's administrative, legislative and regulatory arms didn't do Goldman any harm either...
Of course, being 'too big to fail' doesn't hurt with the risk management either.
There can not be two kings in a kingdom. GS is the king, and the world is their kingdom. The only way there could be another Goldman Sachs is if Goldman Sachs were to be destroyed.
I'm not saying they aren't well run, but they are well run by insiders and government men. When you have insiders and government men, you don't need to be well run, you just need to sit back and collect the "money".
"What Goldman Sachs did... was manage their risk."
What Goldman Sachs Did Was:
1. Use their bitchez at US Treasury to bailout bitchez at AIG.
2. Then use AIG bitchez to pay GS bitchez.
(100% to cover all the GS fuck ups.)
3. Then buy two shitty little NY State banks...
4. Then have their bitchez at FRBNY call GS a bank.
5. Then use their bitchez at the Fed to borrow 0% money.
6. Then leverage up the free money to screw every bitchez in sight.
If that is what you mean by GS is smarter... then yes you are correct.
When GS bitchez weren't cooking up Abacus fraud... that is.
What Goldman Sachs did was manage their risk.
BUTTERS!
Let's give everyone a printing press, too!
The road to Leavenworth is paved with a good printing press...
Too funny. +1
Uhm, I think the dude was serious. Oh, wait. I get it. LOL
I agree with you [somewhat] but only when it comes to GS mortgage trading and, by extension, GS FI division. The rest is populated by idiots who can not trade their way out of a paper bag without the help of the most recent super-computer. Why do you think most of their revenue is derived from market making; its because its the safest; least risky way of making money. But they are still cheating whores when it comes to FI market making with their artificial widening of the spreads. The only "smart" thing GS did was hedging counterparty exposure/concentration risk. They got fucked in the ass in all other asset classes they trade[d] in. If it wasnt for "smart" hedging in the FI; they would be gone on Monday morning after LEH.
CB,
I wish the bastards were gone but then again I couldn't afford some of the silver and gold still floating at reasonable prices. I am sure GS has their slimy hands in there. By the way, who keeps flagging you.
I like Sprott and agree with his analysis. I just wish he wasn't promoting gold funds. I hate to say it, but he's got a conflict of interest. Now, he's probably the most honest broker around for all I know. I've just had it with any and all fund managers who have access to a large megaphone. I know I'm stating the obvious, but it just sucks that the industry is so fucking corrupt that we have to by suspicious of even the truth tellers.
I hear you, but not all funds are equal. And there's nothing wrong with having to earn trust in a world where trustworthiness should never be assumed.
Also, the larger his fund grows, the tighter the squeeze on papered gold.
Bought 250 shares of PHYS this morning. My 401k allows 'self directed brokerage account'. I finally decided that as long as I can't completely pull my money out without a huge penalty (sorry Gordon), I was going to try to preserve at least a little of my hard earned savings.
weiner,
Under those conditions, I agree........WHAT other options do you have?.
That's really the $64,000 question I'm afraid. 2 big problems: 1.) A lot of folks don't have the option to pick particular funds or ETFs like PHYS or CEF; and 2.) A lot of folks listen to the fund managers who supposedly have their best interests in mind.
I agree that his prognosis on the economy clearly reflects the commercial interests he has (and vice versa), and that he cannot therefore be "impartial".
But flip this around. Sprott is backing up what he is saying with a stack of his own money. Would he really be more credible if (you thought) he had no commercial interest in gold?
True points, Thesepian and Sabremesh. I've just been disillusioned too many times...
"impartial" is one of those views about objectivity that's always bothered me. To be completely objective is to not care. If I didn't care, I would never be able to pick a side and would probably not even be interested in the topic, given that I didn't care.
On this topic, I want to hear from people who really care and care a lot, so much so that they've invested much of their life studying it. And they'd better be walking their talk. That is Sprott.
Been reading your comments lately; well said.
So it doesn't just make sense in my own head? Thanks for the taste of sanity, no matter how fleeting.
um...you see the difference between a newsletter that anyone can willingly sign up for, and constant appearances on CNBC/msm?
Moral Hazard = "Not a chance. However, the remaining six banks, all of which are "too big to fail", did manage to earn a combined $51 billion in 2009, sending their stocks soaring as a result."
There is no better sign of the utter manipulation of perspective since 3/09. The banks are broke. The country is broke. The FED makes winners out of the six banks that do their bidding at Treasury auctions. Its all a sham. It will all come crashing down very soon.
The fed does the TBTF's bidding. They own the fed. Everyone has that backwards. They do a good kabuki or else even very intelligent people wouldn't be so confused. Bernanke is a puppet.
more green shoots
nasa refocused on outreach to muslims
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/07/07/nasas_muslim_outreach_106214.html
And this helps the USA, or the Economy how?.LOL
On Sprott, I have an issue with his Fund, in that, he doesn't want anyone that isn't VERY wealthy IN IT.
Fk the little people.
To me, that's the only point of his fund, to get big money squeezing the market. I imagine it's very difficult for big buyers to find big sellers of physical outside of using the means of a fund. The IMF won't sell Sprott their supposed gold, meanwhile Sprott sets up a mainline for getting at the supply. It's awesome.
As for the rest of us, why would we want to use a fund anyway? It's easier for us to convert nearly all we own into gold without anyone even noticing. And if we all just by a little...
Hey, the Muslims have a lot of gold per capita. This might be the most important thing NASA has ever done. They can rent the space shuttle to them in exchange for gold!
Yes, because kissing up to a global death cult with a centuries-long tradition of destroying all forms of human knowledge and scientific advancement that disagrees with its holy book (which is nearly all of it) is a great way to get to space faster.
I find Muslims to be intelligent, hard working people, whereas I find you to be an asshole.
I find that they tend to spontaneously combust in crowds and pizza parlors more than any other religion.
Do you think it's something in their diet?
more likely something in your diet
Oh that's clever. My goodness such wit. You certainly can turn a phrase.
Any relation to Luther Heggs?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/uganda/7885111/Al-Shabaab-Islamists-suspected-in-deadly-Ugandan-World-Cup-bombings.html
The world's first recorded suicide terrorist was a guy named Samson who knocked down buildings in Gaza killing three thousand innocent men, women and children.
So, I guess you hate his tribe, too.
Ummm...if I recall these "innocent" of Gaza (Phillistines) had made him a slave and gouged his eyes out first.
You might want to pick another candidate...LOL.
I guess the Gaza strip is floating on sunshine, lol.
Yeah...it's been pretty bizzaro there for awhile.
Gaza border crossing at Rafah closed by Egyptians, forcing flotillas, intercepted by Israel, border crossing reopened.
The beat go's on. It would be nice if the ENTIRE narrative was told regarding such things...it's almost as if...naw couldn't be ;-)
The Free Gaza boats float (at least in part) on liquidity provided by me.
Proud sponsor since the siege was first broken in August 2008.
Ummm...if I recall these "innocent" of Gaza (Phillistines) had made him a slave and gouged his eyes out first.
So you would have no problem if the Gitmo detainess killed 3,000 Americans? Or does Samson's tribe get to play by a different rule book than everybody else?
Now read the story of Samson the Suicide Terrorist Dead-Ender who killed the little boy who showed him mercy:
26 And Samson said unto the lad that held him by the hand, Suffer me that I may feel the pillars whereupon the house standeth, that I may lean upon them. 27 Now the house was full of men and women; and all the lords of the Philistines were there; and there were upon the roof about three thousand men and women, that beheld while Samson made sport. 28 ¶ And Samson called unto the LORD, and said, O Lord GOD, remember me, I pray thee, and strengthen me, I pray thee, only this once, O God, that I may be at once avenged of the Philistines for my two eyes. 29 And Samson took hold of the two middle pillars upon which the house stood, and on which it was borne up, of the one with his right hand, and of the other with his left. 30 And Samson said, Let me die with the Philistines. And he bowed himself with all his might; and the house fell upon the lords, and upon all the people that were therein. So the dead which he slew at his death were more than they which he slew in his life.Amazing how you can gloss over the fact that the Phillistines had enslaved the tribe of Dan and the deception that led to Samson's capture. The Phillistines sent their most beautiful woman on a mission to take his strength by cutting his hair. They knew he was the champion of his people. So in essence, your taking the position that those who are enslaved should stay that way...LOL.
"So you would have no problem if the Gitmo detainess killed 3,000 Americans?"
They can certainly try. In their minds they may think it's just, but you'll pardon me for not rolling over, if they come after my family, me or my country I would not have a problem killing them. I suppose you would talk them to death?
The Phillistines were Samson's and his peoples enemies. You will need to find another "terrorist" example. This one isn't workin out so hot for you.
Keep trying ;-)
The Phillistines were Samson's and his peoples enemies. You will need to find another "terrorist" example. This one isn't workin out so hot for you.
Wonderful logic. Samson killed thousands of women and children who did him no proportional harm. But he wasn't a terrorist because those innocent people where his enemies.
Osama bin Laden is America's enemy, so I guess that you don't consider him to be a terrorist, right?
Keep trying ;-)
OK. Tell me why you wanted to see the occupants of the King David Hotel murdered by Zionists. Tell me why you cheered the deaths on the USS Liberty. Tell me why Pollard should be freed. Tell me why Larry Franklin is in jail but his AIPAC contacts have not been charged. In essence, please justify your existence as a loud mouthed traitorous scumbag.
http://www.thereligionofpeace.com/
I just finished Mass Effect 2 where I got to save the entire galaxy by going on a suicide mission to blow up the enemy's base. I wonder how many engineers and other workers were innocent on that base... Still, had to be done.
Crockett,
No one said they were not............personally I no issues with any race, just their Religion, is unlike any other.IF you follow it to the LETTER.
their Religion, is unlike any other.IF you follow it to the LETTER.
Please elaborate.
Seems to me that the Jews tell a story in which God told them, "Go kill all those people and take their stuff because I like you better than them!" Jesus reportedly said that he brought a sword and sought to set family members against each other.
Great sales Propaganda:
75 Virgins when you become a martyr. Size, weight, looks and sex not identified.
Kill all other human beings by tagging them infidels- Non Believers.
Expand your population by preaching ignorance from the Pulpit. These guys make Catholics look like pikers.
Move as many Muslims as possible into Christian/Secular nations while denying other religions access into Muslim countries.
Pull the race card as much as possible.
So Crockett you are right -they are working hard to overrun the West. They are intelligently using Western Liberalism to advance their goals. And they would cut your throat using the pretext of "insha Allah".
I certainly can live without Muslims. You should try ONE DAY with living without an asshole. Even you might find it necessary and useful.
I'm sorry that you live such a terrified existence. Perhaps it is better for someone like you to make up monsters out of whole cloth rather than face the real world around you. Therein lie genuine terrors in the form of smog alerts, drunk drivers, rabid raccoons...
I imagine that if you turned away from your imaginary monsters long enough to see that real world around you, you would fall wailing and quaking to the ground. Better for you to play the overexcited, impotent fool.
Don't forget, teach your followers to murder their own children and call it "honor killing".
Yeah, I don't like Christians that much either.
If you were talking about Muslims, I think all the inventor of the Scientific Method, Ibn al-Haytham might disagree with you. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibn_al-Haytham
Link-
Do you have a script that captures the rss feeds from this site and greps them for "Iran","Israel", or "Arab" so you know where to comment?
this comment is just fucking stupid. I seem to recall you saying intelligent stuff before, but now Im pretty sure my recollection is completely inaccurate.
700 years ago, the christian world were in their dark ages, ruthless, intolerant, biggoted, and generally just terrible people. Spanish inquisition, ring a bell? Crusades ring a bell??
the muslim world was learned and full of science and culture. You know, when the Jews were expelled from Spain, it was the Ottomon Turks who offered them a place to live. Shocking, they happen to be Muslim.
Also, who massacred who at Srebrenica??
Now, easily can be argued the rolls have been reversed, but to what extent has that roll-reversal been caused by United States'/western policy? Another argument for another day.
On a related note, I am continually shocked by how so many seemingly intelligent people are able to completely give-in to such irrational xenophobic impulses based on massive and incorrect sweeping generalizations. Of course, Europeans know that first hand.
Oso,
Why were the Crusades started?.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crusades#Historical_context
And, I already said I do not have issues with Muslims,(except when they continue to stay quiet when their fellow Muslims,are Jihading the hell out of(innocent) folks, WHY? do they remain silent?.)
To me this is tantamount to agreement with it.
This is just IMHO..............
You bear false witness.
http://www.google.com/#hl=en&q=muslims+against+terrorism&aq=f&aqi=g1&aql...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpLzrZyla1M&feature=related
Farrakhan, the Austrian? Ron Paul could have given that lecture, if he were a tad more honest.
Yes, the "Crusades" was pure comedy, a bunch of do-gooder christians gonna teach the muslims a thing or two...hell, the do-gooders killed everyone they came across, including christians, that is, until they ran into the Turks.
Here's an excellent documentary by Monty Python's Terry Jones (parts 1-13)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXed3tvR_-g
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHO1P42p1HE
I do not know will this mean much to you or not; but you earned my full respect by being the only on here who remembered Srebrenica. The rest can go fuck themselves for all I care. Its easy to talk about "Muslim" crimes and not mentioning that the biggest post-WWII genocide was inflicted upon innocent European Muslims in the heart of Europe 15 years ago while the "civilized" Western "World" was masturbating over the sizes if tech IPOs and the fall of the USSR. Combined death toll in the past 30 years is not 5000 when it comes to suicide bombings. As I said; those who neglect that fact [+Afghanistan and Iraq] can go fuck themselves. Ignorant cretins.
I'm sure you feel the same way about the Jews, that is, that they are and have been persecuted throughout history?
And that gives them the right to kill whoever, wherever, and whenever they want.
HEIL NETANYAHU! HEIL ISRAEL!
Well, for me, personally, this is where I part with Libertarian views.
If I were in a position (of power in this instance) where I knew someone or group was in another country planning or had carried out a previous attack and the country had been uncooperative in the past...yes they would be dead meat.
Anyone who says otherwise is either a pacifist, a masochist or a liar.
This is why proper vetting of candidates is so important...most probably wouldn't want me in power.
They would rather be told a lie ;-)
If I were in a position (of power in this instance) where I knew someone or group was in another country planning or had carried out a previous attack and the country had been uncooperative in the past...yes they would be dead meat.
Israel has attacked the United States, Britain and others multiple times.
What you gonna do about it, big man?
It is inaccurate to suggest that a Libertarian wouldn't attack an attacker or hunt someone like Bin Laden.
If you use Ron Paul directly as an example, which I am guessing is who you are thinking of, he publicly supported the War in Afghanistan to get Bin Laden - before it was a nation bulding/police exercise. Also he has suggested using Letters of Marque and Reprisal, or mercenary forces, to defend the U.S. as well as track down its enemies.
Libertarian isn't synonymous with pacifist; it is probably more accurate to say they are fiscally conservative and don't want to spend money on grand armies and massive wars without end as both are costly to the tax payer in lives and money.
"Also he has suggested using Letters of Marque and Reprisal, or mercenary forces, to defend the U.S. as well as track down its enemies."
I was not aware of his position on defense.
Thanks, I'll check it out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrCqVYVxEoA&NR=1
"Ron Paul on Letters of Marque and Reprisal"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSP9NteApqI
As a strong supporter of our Bill of Rights, it seems reasonable to me that merchant ships have a right to protect themselves. All for that.
However, if we begin to engage in the hiring of foriegn mercs, especially from back water countries, they will not fight with the same honor as our people. This is something that needs to be addressed before being presented with defending the use of them after a massacre.
Yeah, I know it's war, but it will happen, it always does. They won't be beholden to our military justice system I would presume.
Just a thought, outside of arming our merchant ships which I agree with.
Ever hear of Abu Ghraib? Is that the honor you desire?
Ok...fine.
Ever hear of Danny Pearl? Or Hussiens two bastard son's? Or AQ Iraq slicing off kids faces with piano wire? AQ Iraq putting kids in ovens and then placing them in front of the parents?
Is that the honor you desire? They were irregular forces.
Don't play this game with me Temp.
Yeah I saw that...on Al Jazeera no less...we're takin this community organizing thingy to a whole new level...ROTFL.
The synopsis;
Hey...you guys did some really neato stuff back in the day with science & math...not so much lately...maybe with my new gig as NASA director we can stick a couple of you guys in rocket...would you like that? ;-)
And what did you invent? Just give me one example of your own brilliant originality?
Two darling clones of myself. There's two ;-)
Always go the extra mile.
I did have an idea involving irrigation that I pursued to the point of talking to a patent lawyer. We have to contact others with similar ideas going back to the 30's so I let it slide. Two years later Rain Bird marketed my device.
And you thes-apien?
Well, I did trump the expanding universe model with a purely relational model. The original takes the expansion of nonlocal space to be absolute based on a non-relativistic metric and extrapolates this to mean the universe is expanding. My model shows that local space and nonlocal space are shrinking/expanding relative to one another but that neither is absolute, avoiding the paradox associated with an expanding universe that has no measure outside of itself.
When I tried to pass along this idea, Julian Barbour told me in an email that he and a team were already working on the mathematics of such a model. I still have that email and the attachment to an early version of his publishings.
Sometimes, the time is just right for an idea that suddenly lots of people are independently thinking of it.
Quantum Mechanics is another field just begging for interpretation to stop treating time as something that flows in itself from past to future.
Nevertheless, I'm not claiming to be Muslim, nor am I claiming to be more creative than Muslims. So why are you asking?
Impressive.
Niether of us turned a profit for our time and effort. It's that way sometimes.
"Nevertheless, I'm not claiming to be Muslim, nor am I claiming to be more creative than Muslims. So why are you asking?"
I never asked if you were a muslim. I don't care if you are. I never said you were less or more creative than a muslim.
To refresh your expanded sense of time and space...from your original to me;
"And what did you invent? Just give me one example of your own brilliant originality?" I answered you.
Your beef isn't with me thes. It's with the new NASA director and his lack of ability to realize he was being condescending to muslims in his little chat. That's how I took it.
And speaking of time. I refuse to rationalize what has happened in the past with what happens in the present. Because my ancestor may or may not have ridden a horse into the middle east and killed they're ancestors does not give them liberty to blow themselves up while I'm having dinner in a restaurant with my family today.
The "good" muslims could stop the "bad" muslims...that is...unless there is something in their law or religion that precludes this ;-)
Yes, let's stick to the present. Supposedly, we are at war. The enemy has so far only hit strategic locations in the US, a financial center (astute enemy) and security hub. All other fighting as been on foreign land. So far, none of the attacks qualify as terrorism in my mind. However, we've bombed homes, schools, hospitals, even a funeral ceremony. We've tortured people. We've assassinated people. Basically, we're the terrorists. Why do they hate us? Oh, because we've been doing this to them long before and leading up to 911. This is why Ron Paul warned us before 911. And that's assuming that the laws of physics were suspended on that day and what we were told before even an investigation was even somewhat accurate.
Your a smart guy. Frankly I'm a little shocked by this.
"The enemy has so far only hit strategic locations in the US, a financial center (astute enemy) and security hub."
First of all, they killed innocent civilians first...before ANY target was hit during the hijacking.
So, no, no and yes. The WTC was a civilian target. Big fucking difference. Astute, no. Many other civilian targets would have been more devastating. I have often said we are fortunate in our enemies. Pentagon was/is a legit target.
There was low to medium level outrage over Khobar Towers barracks & the USS Cole etc., but this was over the top and now I don't care how many funerals, weddings, mud huts we blow through to eradicate these bastards.
If the Persians, muslims and arabs won't weed out the bad they bring it on themselves by allowing them sanctuary.
I realize it's popular sport abroad (in Europe especially) to demonize the Jews but you need to understand something. I'm from the South, Scotch/Irish/Creek/German, a mutt basically and you can derive whatever smugness you wish from that knowledge, we're used to it. And I don't really care particularly about New Yorkers. But I'm right beside them on this, because it could have been Atlanta or Dallas.
And this..."We've tortured people."
You must be referring to waterboarding I suppose. Hardly gouging out of eyes like another on this thread is looking past. I would say that waterboarding in certain quarters of San Fransico is only considered rough foreplay, in a truly neo-progressive relative way ;-)
You said: I refuse to rationalize what has happened in the past with what happens in the present. Because my ancestor may or may not have ridden a horse into the middle east and killed they're ancestors does not give them liberty to blow themselves up while I'm having dinner in a restaurant with my family today.
But elsewhere in this thread you said: If I were in a position (of power in this instance) where I knew someone or group was in another country planning or had carried out a previous attack and the country had been uncooperative in the past...yes they would be dead meat.
But of course, YOU don't have to play by the same rules you require of those dirty Muslims, do you?
It's only bad if someone else does it to him.
What part of "I refuse to rationalize" past and present are you two jolers having a problem with again? You both have reading comprehension problems.
One was me with my family, in the present. One was me in a theoretical position of responsibility over millions of families in the present.
Morality gaming is fine until your ass is on the line. So I take it you both would roll your own people and families in the hope that you would die last or be spared? Good luck with that strategy and Sharia Law...LOL.
Ummm...I don't believe...no I didn't...say "dirty" muslims. What is really in your heart for you to attribute that to me on a thread that can be read and verified by ALL...including your defender thespian?
Grow up boy.
So I take it you both would roll your own people and families in the hope that you would die last or be spared?
So that's why you spend so much kissing up to zionist terrorists!
I don't know any Jews homey.
Try and spend a little more time researching your "Sampson is terrorist" subject next time.
Your Unhumbled Infidel, nmewn
P.S.
Are fatwas still issued on people who speak ill of Mohammed? What's all that about? Can't he just like come down and smite you or sumpin?
I don't know any Jews homey.
I know a few. Been friends with a very nice couple for decades. Last time I ran into them was at a local production of My Name is Rachel Corrie. They invited me to come downtown and join in with a group they belong to which seeks justice for Palestine. I said I'd come down but I never made it. They are far more committed than I am (manning the barricades vs. keyboard kommando). Good folks.
Try and spend a little more time researching your "Sampson is terrorist" subject next time.
My research indicated that the dude's name was Samson.
Are fatwas still issued on people who speak ill of Mohammed? What's all that about? Can't he just like come down and smite you or sumpin?
Well, I'm an outspoken atheist but nobody has ever tried to off me. Of course, I usually don't go around rattling peoples cages because they subscribe to a particular faith. I figure that if it works for them what's it to me?
"I know a few."
So what. This is akin to saying one can't be a bigot because one has friends of a certain race or religion. It's an example of deceptive projection.
To me, you are a special kind of psychotic troll.
You never answer a question directly. You will not admit that certain elements within the muslim community are murdering innocents of ALL races to achieve a religious/political goal. You go even further by trying to justify your view with the example of Samson which has no bearing on the present. You try to divide. Now you run off behind aethism, which requires faith by the way, like any other terrorist would run to a mosque/church or behind the skirt of a woman when cornered.
The object of Islam and Sharia Law which is inseparable, according to the text, is forced conversion to it, DEATH, or you can pay the jizya (a TAX) to remain an "infidel", which is a second class citizen under Sharia Law.
"If anyone desires a religion other than Islam (submission to Allah), never will it be accepted of him." --Quran 3:85
"Fight those who believe not in Allah...until they pay the jizya with willing submission, and feel themselves subdued." --Quran 9:29
It is against Islam to turn a "brother" over for whatever reason. This why "good" muslims have a hard time turning over "bad" muslims for terrorism, which I alluded to thespian above.
"O ye who believe! take not the Jews and the Christians for your friends and protectors: They are but friends and protectors to each other. And he amongst you that turns to them (for friendship) is of them." --Quran 5:51
Now, have your rabid troll buddy-roh's junk this and drool fatwah's till their sick little hearts are content.
I do not bow to anyone, king, priest, mullah or president. I'm an American. Kiss my ass.
So now it's anti-Semitic to know a few Jews?
Take a step back and smell yourself. Don't you see how you turn everything upside down? For example, it's your friends who have been junking my posts throughout this thread. No one has junked you yet.
No you stupid fuck...everyone saw what was happening...man your pathetic.
You guys even junked Cheeky who stood for your side, so it appeared it was Jews or some other dumbass thing in your twisted little world.
I see you anon junking me on the current top thread now you friggin cowardly maggot. No one came running to my defense in this whole exchange here and frankly I don't need or expect them to, especially for a little cockroach like you.
You do know Cheeky knows don't you?...well done twerp...the numbers didn't add up on the thread.
Go seek professional help.
Come on Thes
My god is bigger than your god. If you don't want to believe me, then send him/her over to my house and I will have my god thump the beejeezas out of him/her.
Now its all settled.
Oh yeah, and I had an original idea once, but I forgot what it was.
OH YEAH! It's on...
My god is so bad ass that he can create an entire universe that doesn't need a god to create it. Did you get that? My god can create a universe without ever having to exist himself. Top that.
I can't even argue against my god's existence since I define him as non-existing.
Let's see you try.
Axelrod said stimulus for the States looks like a no go.
The Repubs must think austerity will win them power, they must be fucking nuts.
This is exactly how it went down, the second time, in the mid 30s.
... er ... not to put too fine a point on it, but there is zip, zero, nada that the repubs can do. Guess some of the dems are wetting themselves. Wait for the lame duck session=feeding frenzy.
- Ned
No, they correctly perceive that the majority of voters view additional stimulus as paying people not to work, paving roads to nowhere, and handouts to solar panel factories that employ dozens of workers.
Amen to that.
Well Jake it's like this.
All idiot media and libtards across the country were told when "shovel ready stimulus" was being passed that it was nothing but a Keynesian illusion to prop up state & local budgets and the impact will fade and we will be left with nothing but a larger budget hole.
That is, the shovel ready jobs bill was a lie.
This 787 billion was on top of the 400 billion continuing budget resolution passed which was NOTHING but pork for politicians and their districts. On top untold billions to Wall Street and a 400 billion credit line to FNM/FRE.
So, in your view, to ween someone off crack the answer is to give them more crack because they make threats?
Whatever. Crash and burn it. We'll build it back without crackheads next time. No worries.
No, I am fully aware that all the shiny new green bits will not deliver us from evil, but that was the play that was gonna get made regardless the winners in 08. Keynes is all they got (Dems & R), there is no plan B, for any of them.
But now, the fucktard republicans think they can play the "pay as you go" card, as if they suddenly found jesus, and the last 30 years was a dream - kinda like that Bobby returns episode of Dallas.
Not that I like the fucktard Democrats either. And I don't like our prospects before, during, or after, November.
Well I believe we...at least you and I are close to agreement.
A lot of this back and forth (republican/democrat) only serves the purposes of those above us...it gives them power.
Both sides will have to come to the realization that SPENDING is the problem...not revenue. When something grows so large it has to be supported to the detriment of everything and everyone else it will collapse anyways. Reducing the pressure by cutting the size will help.
The Homeland Security Dept. should be the first to go...it's redundant in my view.
The Dept. of Energy should be next as it's a 35yr. failure.
Stop paying people to NOT plant crops.
Shut down our bases in Europe and bring the troops home...to Arizona. The europeans are big boys they don't need us there.
I would say kick the UN out of NY but I'm reaching out here. The cost of having it there are astonishing...so I'll pass for now.
Any other cost savings from you?
The Departments of Education, HUD, Agriculture and Labor and the EPA should immediately follow the DOE into oblivion. But your list would be a great start.
But I have to ask: if you kicked the UN out of NYC who's going to pick-up the slack for the multitudes of "girls working their way through college" who are "assisted" by the generous diplomats inhabiting the UN offices?
"But I have to ask: if you kicked the UN out of NYC who's going to pick-up the slack for the multitudes of "girls working their way through college" who are "assisted" by the generous diplomats inhabiting the UN offices?"
Hmmm...I suppose with their skill sets they could bop on down to DC...maybe "do" an internship or two with the current prostitutes who reside there ;-)
"War on Drugs" is a pretty big one. Could even make some money off of taxes from that, reduce the size of the prison populations, lower legal costs and stop building jails.
The CIA, FBI, Pentagon, DOD, DOJ, NSA...could cut lots of fat.
Hear hear.
Not much on the taxation of pot...but decriminalization for personal use. But I could be persuaded otherwise. Legalizing narcotics I ain't so sure about.
What is being done to our youth for getting caught smoking a joint is what's criminal.
Disclaimer I don't smoke it.
Yeah, blame the failure of the latest bailout proposal on the utterly powerless numerical minority in both houses of CONgress.
Got news for you, Jake - the Blue Shirts have owned the legislative process for about 3.5 years now. Seems that the "sell by" date for "IT'S ALL THE EEEEEEEVIL RETHUGLICANS FAULT!!!11!1!1!!!" came and went some time ago, so you might want to think about a new strategy.
We'll see. I don't think the repubs have fixed the perception that they are corporate socialists, and until they actually act small government/free market, nobody will take them seriously.
Well, no - they probably haven't "fixed" anything in the realm of perception. But that doesn't really matter as they're not the current idiots in charge.
Count me among those who expect little if anything to change (positively) after November - but if the Red Shirts manage to at least slow-down Barry O'Toole as he drives the USA Titanic into oblivion, then it will be a small victory at least.
It's perhaps naive of me to think (hope?) there might still be a political solution to our epic problems - but frankly I tire greatly of those who have the "BRING ON THE SUCK!" attitude - unless they're putting 100+ rounds of lead through their personal cache on a weekly basis they are no more or less prepared for "Mad Max meets A Boy and His Dog" than am I - who can only manage the occasional trip to the trap range and the even rarer practice with Uncle Ruger LCR.