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From Jamie Horvat and Charles Oliver, Sprott Opportunities Hedge Fund.
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Well, I have no idea where the S&P is going, and probably no one else does either. Up? Yeah, that´s OK.
I got enough paper (stocks & bonds). As more paper comes in (dividends and income), I will buy more gold.
Yaah, Mr. Bullion Dealer! Take my green paper and give me gold!
Good report . They probably got burned on those regional bank short positions with the barlcays rumor of shopping to buy one . (anyone heard anything on that lately?) Timing of this market for a tumble has proven to be tough , there is still,IMO a chance that over the next month or two there may be a hard downturn in equities .Otherwise like they say in the article late 2010. How to play it is the question .
The way to play it is to be involved and prepared with guns loaded. It's a matter of longevity and I don't mean being "long".
Yeah, I hear you loud and clear . To be honest I get the feeling we might see a hard correction (not to 900) but a hard fast hit in maybe days -but I will pay for the time anyway to spread the risk -
Well, some kind of move down has to come sooner or later. I'm getting real crazy about this because the market psychology plays on the notion that there are many skeptics about this move and lots of shorting going on. Hard to figure because certainly nobody was positioned (if many shorts is true) this way in '08. I think we need a trigger. Been waiting for the kind that sticks it too these kool-aid drinkers. good luck!
Scary to think the S&P can cross 1400 again. Not likely before it passes 900, ummm.
They were short Macy's? Ouch... This market is killing the rational investor. How long can it go on?
Any rational investor has been buying PMs and actual physical goods.
I can't see a strong inverse correlation between DXY and US monetary base on the chart.
It has been pointed out many times that velocity of money also has to be taken into account. Changes in monetary base equal changes in money supply only if we assume that velocity is constant, which has not been the case.
Deflationists argue that no matter how much money is printed, if commercial banks refuse to lend, overall credit will not expand, or it may in fact contract, which is deflation by (one type of) definition.
Besides, dollar strength is relative. If other major central banks also print money, then an increase in US monetary base should not necessarily result in a weaker dollar.
That would be my argument in a nutshell.
If money is printed, but it doesn't make it to the economy... does it cause inflation?
No!
Spot on. The Japanese printed 150 trillion Yen in the 90s and early 2000s and were unable to create any inflation.
My understanding is that it does, but I think what matters is how the new currency makes it there. If, for example the new money travels from the FED to the capital markets, this bypasses the multiplier and only inflates those areas of the economy that are "financial" as opposed to real. I think that is what is causing this economic split personality. Until wage increases, real economy bonuses and hiring cause inflation only bubbles are blown in real estate (here in Canada) and the financial markets.
"We continue to believe that the US and various other governments have no other tool at their disposal other than the printing of money and the ongoing expansion of the monetary base in order to force spending and inflation back into the system."
Agreed, but isn't that the flaw in government (or central bank) thinking?
You can't force spending back into the system if there is a paradigm change and people no longer want to, or are unable to, spend as they did before. Inflation benefits no one except the powers "printing" the money. In the period 1800s up to 1900 there was NO inflation in the US (in fact there was, overall, slight deflation) - that didn't stop technological growth or make people poorer. I could go on.
DavidC
It's rigged. Why do you insist on trying to tell a logical story about it? The TBTF are big enough to move it together, never mind what the computers are capable of, never mind the SEC turns a blind eye to everything, never mind the duplicity of the Fed and the Treasury.
Please take heed of what I am saying. You, who decide to keep participating in the markets are captured by a spell. You are hoping to dupe the dupers and get some value out of it. They know this, and are using that psychology to work you. You keep trading, you can no longer blame them any more. You know what is going on and you are letting it happen to you.
When you folks trade, you are buying lottery tickets. The house is letting certain folks win, for now, to lure the rest of you back in.
Good luck. Save yourselves and this country. Consider the possibility that you are officially the problem.
+1
Here's my thing:
There's nothing wrong with participating as long as you KNOW that the market is pretty much going to go up indefinitely and don't go against it.
That seems to be the problem of so many here IMO, they know what's happening... but still seem to trade against it because they are "more rational." I'm not saying that even most of the people here do that, but there's nothing wrong with riding the coattails and making a buck or two, since you know what's going to happen.
Why fight the trend?
The only reality is reality.
I agree. Those who blame bulls or call bulls idiots, make a similar mistake as those who want to ban shorting : blaming and attacking others for the market being different from what they think would be "right".
Sweetie,
Let me spell it out. They are getting you to buy into the "up forever" narrative, then they will short, then they will pull the props out from under it and profit from the crash AND leave you holding their bag.
If everyone took their ball ($) and went home, they wouldn't have anyone to treat like this and we could bring the whole thing to a grinding halt. This is one of the reasons I am out, out, out. I am small potatoes, but I can at least be a paper cut. They keep contacting me trying to get me back into stocks. I love it because that means they are losing money, paying some fucker to contact me, trying to get me back in.
Eat shit and die, banksters and phony government of the USA.
You should see the action around my no direct deposit action. wheeee. I just know the bank teller loves to have to say the spiel every month...
If you want to sleep at night, here is an example; $100k of assets to invest.
keep $30k in physical gold.
keep $25k in 500euro notes in a safe. (That will be approx 18 notes)
keep $25k in 20 dollar bills in a safe.
keep $20k in a checking account in a local safe bank.
Three way hedging. No stock/bond market risk, especially if you are over 60
There are asbestos fire blankets that can withstand 3000degrees f. even more than a safe. Or use a blanket inside the safe, or multiple hiding places.
http://www.thefirestore.com/store/product.cfm?pID=3031
If you have a million or more to invest disregard this.
Substitute CADs for Euros and I would somewhat agree with you.
i dont know......
They may not have much gold, but at least Canada could change that situation relatively quickly. The basic allure of Canada relative to a country like China is on a per capita basis. In fact, one of the basic reasons we find ourselves in such a dire position today worldwide is the seeming lack of concern for per capita economic analysis. Regarding gold, and assuming past productions levels (and ignoring absurd immigration policies, or more accurately a lack thereof), what Canada could accumulate domestically through acquiring all internal pruduction would take China about 16 years (Canada produces about 3.7 million ounces vs. China’s output of about 8.7). Canada’s allure to investors currently is the fact that relative to China (or even the U.S.), it at least superficially appears to be able to use its tangible resources toward some positive end (and that it has so many relative to population size), even if it doesn’t at present time.
Regarding Canadian housing, sure, “something that is unsustainable will not be sustained”. Again, though, compared to China, do you really think Canadian housing will fall as far (or is even as mispriced)? By most accounts that I have seen (although most are biased one way or another) China is truley on another planet. The basic fundamental problem worldwide is pricing. In short, it’s f___ed up, and has been for a long time. Canadian housing, Chinese steel, Japanese electronics, and my ramblings are all likely massively mispriced. Of course, by accident, some things could be correctly priced. “Fundamentally finance is just present value analysis. There are only two things of concern:
1) What is/are the cash flow(s)?
2) What is/are the discount rate(s)?”
Central banks (“CBs”) have and continue to f__ up basic discount rates (i.e., #2), and thus any pricing analysis is going to be wrong. The central issue today isn’t whether the price of say Canadian residential real estate is “right”, for it is clearly wrong, the question is when are the CBs (and given the exchange rate regime, the key is the Fed) going to ‘go all in’ and end the charade? Maybe they have, and the next several months to several years will see Canadian real estate, Chinese steel, etc. begin to finally float back toward fundamental value. Of course, this will happen along side currency dislocations and disaster. Anyways, if fundamentals finally became the prime mover for housing and currency, etc. I for one wouldn’t be so worried about Canada relative to some other places.
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