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SPY About To Hit 52 Week High... On Lowest Volume Of The Year
- Lowest volume day of the year? Check
- Pattern matching and heatmapping? Check
- Time to ramp market to YTD highs? Check
- Does anyone care or trade anymore with Mr. Simons soon to be derelict cores? Not so much...
And here is what 3 computers chasing every.single. offer. into the close looks like. Cause you know today is the last day to buy stocks.
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I mean, honestly, does this really surprise you; i stopped to be surprised somewhere in April; and just take thing like they are; insane.
Well no, it makes sense. I mean, you're getting short term cash for 1/4 of a percent; and you know the other guy is getting it. What are you going to do with the free money? buy stocks of course.
And who wouldn't, especially if the dividend covers the interest.
And if the stock goes up 10%, put in a stop limit, and go back to the well. You can never have too much of a good thing.
This can't possibly end badly.
Question. How do you cover up systemic corruption?
Answer. Expand the level of systemic corruption.
Still waiting for my invitation.
Like the FHA continuing to make bad loans because new volume reduces the percentage of delinquent loans at any one time. New corruption runs interference for older corruption.
"Still waiting for my invitation."
Me too.
Let me first get my billion :-)
Was it April 1st? Seems like everyday is April Fool's Day now....I woke up and heard that Obama is getting a Nobel Peace Prize. They must of had a good laugh over that one in the war room while discussing how many more troops to send to Afghanistan..
I called my mother early this morning to inform her of the Nobel Prize. She flat out did not believe me. Nothing I said could convince her that the Nobel Prize committee could be that stupid.
She finally flipped on the TV for confirmation and then angrily informed me I had ruined her day.
Nope ma, it wasn't me. I'm just the messenger.
I thought this is the new normal. I'll start being scared if this doesn't happen. :)
stock market?
more like lolmarket
Or if you're GM, hock market
It's the Feds/JPM/GS "Sock market"
Or if you are a upscale jeweler in New York.
"Rock Market"
Cheeky,
I looked at the rally through the depression lens. After the crash was a rally of 50% or so too. It looks like the mix of bear market rally with dot.com mania powered by free money. Robo posted nice details on that.
Everything up and the $ down spells hyperinflation to me.
Exactly, 1930 was a great year for stocks from the bounce, before the depression really set in.
superimpose a chart of the dow from 29-32 over one from 2007 to present.
it's hysterical...i think the guy on the blog dshort puts it up daily (don't have link)...
edit...here's chart.
http://dshort.com/charts/bears/road-to-recovery-large.gif
They didn't have HAL9000 in 1930 either... they just had Hal.
Look, it's all different now...
They had Babbage engines and beta version of ENIAC trading stocks then.
Everything up is not consistent with hyperinflation. Everything up is consistent with a liquidity bubble. How else can you explain commodities, equities, bonds, credit, Emerging Markets?...all the markets are positively correlated once again, as was the case leading into the crisis.
Well since the adminstration uses the DJ as the best measure of the health of the economy, by all accounts Obama should have won the Nobel prize in economics!
Oh snap.
Good old Joy Hickey ...
Mandy Drury's long lost sister... :-)
Did you say health?
Then give him the prize for Medicine too.
Peace, Medicine, and Economics.
How about Physics, Chemistry, and Literature - he did write a book or two.
Pete (looking for an eye rolling emoticon)
i think it was the beer summit that put him over the top.
OMG, you nailed it. Of course. Here I was thinking it might have something to do with troop increases in Afghanistan.
Thanks for clearing that up.
WTF Andy; dont go neo-con... you're waaaaaaaaaaay smarter than that ...
look no one bombed the US after Bush has stolen 2000 and 2004 elections.
Family Guy--"Nine.....ELEVEN!!"
no remember the cop and the african american Harvard professor and the beer summit he had for them at the white house?
I am with CB, Alice in Wonderland - just appreciate how divorced things are from reality and savor day when fundatmentals do matter. As Ghost says the shorting opportunities will be epic.
Cheers,
Pigpen
Epic is right. We live in the time when good is bad, up is down, the do-nothings get a Nobel Prize, the do somethings lose their savings to QE. Just a matter of keeping our eye open for the "tell".
Barton Biggs explains Goldman Sachs computers only halfway through with rally
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/10/barton-biggs-only-halfway-throug...
What is hilarious is all this in light of his book in 2008
Biggs is also author of the 2008 book Wealth, War and Wisdom. In this book, Biggs has a gloomy outlook for the economic future, and suggests that investors take survivalist measures such as looking into "polar cities" as safe refuges for future survivors of global warming. In the book, Biggs recommends that his readers should “assume the possibility of a breakdown of the civilized infrastructure.”
He goes so far as to recommend planning adaptation strategies now and setting up survival retreats: “Your safe haven must be self-sufficient and capable of growing some kind of food,” Mr. Biggs writes. “It should be well-stocked with seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc. Think Swiss Family Robinson. Even in America and Europe there could be moments of riot and rebellion when law and order temporarily completely breaks down.”
Other than that - he is bullish.
Barry Ritholtz is saying something similar about the 70% bounce. We're not there quite yet, but close enough for me.
yeah, 70% over 17 months......
and that model is an amalgamation of normal bear markets
this is not normal
this is like post 1920s
I listened to his interview and he's a nutter alright. Growing food in a polar city. That's classic. What's he gonna grow? Ice cream?
Dare I say it? Double Top.
i said it at spx 1039 and took a short position there, lol! I'm married to it
Today the market goes up, when the dollar goes up. How convenient that the market behaves exactly as the Fed would refer.
Could the Fed have a "hidden" portion of their balance sheet? Where they are using QE to buy futures or even stock indices?
After all, these guys are explicitly supporting the mortgage market, explicitly supporting TBTF institutions. It seems only rational to conclude that they are also supporting the housing market.
There's a global race on to debase your
currency of choice and ramp your market
of choice with the proceeds. Everybody's
printing to beat the band. We're all
just observers now. Course, like all
government work it now makes no sense
whatsoever. SPX 1070 (Hang Seng, FTSE,
what have you) is the equivalent of
the $200 hammer or $3000 toilet.
i quit fighting the machine. the economy is terrible. the stockmarket is a joke. but i want to make money so i trade it with the goal of going home flat with coin in pocket. i'll let others carry home overnight risk.
I agree, it's all rigged to the upside. Buy dips make free money.
Well it's not uncommon for stock markets and economies to move in opposite directions, in fact it's far more common than many think. In 2007 you had strong markets, new all times highs towards the end of the year, despite the economic position and housing deteriorating, and of course the start of the credit crisis in the summer. I guess now the stock market sees low inflation and operational gearing due to cost cutting, hence it has priced in an aggressive multiple. It believes that cost cutting will see company profits hold up until their is some sort of economic recovery, whether or not this is correct is hard to say at this point. I would suspect not, but nobody knows. The trouble with buying the markets here is the risk/reward ratio, once again the markets appear to be ignoring risks. If the stock markets are wrong and the bond markets are right, then the S&P could easily start with a 7 again.
Almost the same pathetic volume as 9/28, the only up day after 3 down days, followed by 4 more down.
Strange indeed.
I apoligize for asking again, but with the bond mnarkwet closed monday, is it likely the spy and e minis won't have their usual rocket fuel?
Labor Day didn't stop the momentum.
you don't need a lot of fuel on low volumes, particularly if the dominant forces have a backstop and marching orders.
i just find it interesting that the Associated Press' FOIA request shows that geithner has many, many phone calls with lloyd blankfein and jamie dimon.
the total calls placed to john mack @ms are 3. ken lewis only a few.
seems to me that the only IBs left (yes, i know they are BHCs now) are ms, gs. if you want to get the word on the street, why does blankfein get the action and none to mack? (rhetorical there kids).
LO!
Happy Bank Fail Friday everyone!
I wonder how many gambling casinos institutions the FDIC stormtroopers will board up this evening? Tell you what, I wish I could buy stock on FDIC employee overtime!
I will start the bidding off at a conservative 4 bank and one credit union this weekend. This should be a weekly ZH poll.
Only one decent-sized bank...maybe two or three tiny ones.
Over/under on total loses, est. cost to FDIC... I like these.. ask DH
i'm with you guys, definitely a weekly highlight...typically, it gets worked into a late day thread, looks like this is the one for this week.
seeing that the FDIC is completely broke and seeing that their own estimates are for around 500 bank failures in the next year, we SHOULD be seeing at least 10 per week (insert hysterical laughing here).
with that in mind....this friday i'm going to go with 5 (only because last week was on 2 as i recall, little bitty ones). on the over/under, i'm definitely under one billion, so i'll go with 550 million.
I congratulate Miles as he absolutely wired the over under and can probably never be beat....i think it was the Corus friday, no?
Yes. And excellent reasoning. I put it at 4 with the admitted FDIC est.o/u at 735 million. Small fry Friday fo sho.
I got you down for the over on banks and under on FDIC hit DH.
wow, not one failure today. zippo. nada. at least as of 9:45 p.m. eastern. still some hope for some west coasters to join the action.
Like the calm before the storm.
In a year or two, we'll look back fondly at the time when banks only failed on Bank Failure Friday.
No bank closure this Friday. Has the economy really got better or Bair has weekend plans.
bair has no money!
Let me frontrun the Anons: You guys are all frustrated bears and can't stand anything good happening with the market. You guys obviously haven't been trading for a while, as this action is completely normal.
WHO is trading in this market? This huge dropoff in volume even makes me doubt all the comments about hordes of unemployed daytraders, aside from a few specific stocks. It's like running a gauntlet, hoping you don't get axed by a millisecond-length computer trade.
Watch a live 1-minute chart of the Dow, and it'll show you everything. The vast majority of the time buying automatically occurs to boost each candle above the Dow's important moving averages, even if the price is driven down at the beginning of the time period. I couldn't count how many last-5 second saves I've seen on those charts.
Plus, I can't wait for Monday. Everyone remembers the +900-something the Dow printed on Columbus Day last year.
WHO is trading in this market?
This is http://www.fz-juelich.de/nic/Publikationen/Broschuere/Scientific-Computing/jump.jpg
bearish spirits....you are absolutely correct (so is cheeky with the pic!).
not that i am a buffet fan, but i have always given much respect to his "be fearful when others are greed, be greedy when others are fearful".
i still remember the panic in feb, march on the banks (the sector i follow) and "nationalization" blah, blah and all that. I was absolutely all in on FAS, and it was the most confident trade i ever made.
bubbles come and go, just a matter of time and picking your entry points and being patient as you know.
I am just about as confident of a short now as i was going long on banks early this year. I love it when we are at extremes like now or back in march. another favorite of mine currently is the "dow 10,000" (i only watch spx). nobody ever follows that with the question "then what?"
good luck to you.
domo arigato mr roboto
domo
domo
Chicago finds its way..
The fractal pattern matches what we have seen in early Jan and early Feb. Plus most, if not all wave 2's have been nearly complete head fake retraces. Of course since I am typing this, the GS web bots will pick it up and program in a new high for early next week.
Okay...maybe we all team up together and start commenting like we are all bullish and know exactly what is going on. The GS web bots will pick it up overnight and then go opposite! We'll mind fuck the bots now that we know that they just go inverse our opinions at ZH! Hahaha!
Good idea. I'll buy 1,000 shares of AIG at the open Monday. I see upside up to $200, no way to lose on that bet.
I'll buy 1,000 shares of AIG at the open Monday
great move, rumor has it that it is going on the squid's conviction buy list next week
To da MOON....sorry I felt the need to say that. Won't happen again.
Join the Mobile Infantry Today! Travel, adventure & citizenship. Want to learn more?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7-PQIuWwLo
sounds like a plan. Is GM still available on the pink sheets?
yeah, this being a corrective wave is totally wrong. since i prime with GS, they will have no problem operating around my trades. yes. blocs to capture upside for next week will be put on the deck starting early next week. when one is wrong, best to get right as soon as you can.
Seems Simon Hobbs has learned the US way of doing things!
"Dow's price and Volume surging new high in the Dow, must be bullish for TA "
He probably like some "pink" cheerleaders pom poms... ;-)
Okay...more on my theory...Obama...Robots...Robama?!? GS isn't a vampire squid...it is a gigantic robot and Obama isn't even human...it was a Google/GS brainchild who is pretending like he is president, but really he is just Robama the superbot that daytrades all day from the white house trading desk!
closer to the truth than any of us may ever know.
I suppose there is really no danger, Bernanke will certainly tell them when the party is over. If I wasn't so old I would go along for the ride. It is just that I have this huge aversion to risk. It is kinda like riding in a hot and squirrely car with a teenager at the wheel. I can only take so much uncertainity.
The ultra low volume even allowed them to put in a couple of ascending scallops. Nice touch!
It is so sad that all this is being done by burning dollars. Why can't citizens have a say in all this? Hard earned money just vanishing.
Computers don't care about right or wrong, they just operate with the help of liquity.
Interesting how the new NYSE big board doesn't display volume + up/down volume, at least when they show it on TV.
Nothing is real
It's strawberry fields...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lL2wtnvaTEs
i think today is John Lennon's birthday
Reminds me of the situation in the UK:
http://debtsofanation.blogspot.com/2009/10/debts-of-spenders-uk-policyma...
awesome-
everything is back to normal- bull market back in swing- what could go wrong
This is a case where retail investors are going to look back(maybe in three, six, nine months) and say 'once again that was to good to be true; those greedy pigs on all wall street got the best of me - AGAIN!'. But right now all they're saying is 'I'm so smart and brilliant; those guys/gals on cnbc really aren't so bad; life is great; i'm going to be rich in a year! This is a win/win situation for me and wall street!'
partisan but entertaining Grayson on healthcare - he is turning into the Ron Paul of the left.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ery7RZ4tZ2Y
Ron Paul doesn't attack the opposition or name call. Grayson is the total opposite of Ron Paul.
Grayson has no class. He is everything the U.S. needs to get rid of-- loud mouthed power hungry Washington politicians that say outlandish things to get campaign money and more power.
Note: Democrats say outlandish things and get more power and money. Says a lot about their supporters.
I think the U.S. Treasury running out of American Eagles pretty much says it all.
Does anyone follow the money flow indicators?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p39430287365
Not really, I got this quote from stockcharts tho...:
If prices are trending upwards and the MFI is trending downwards, reversals such as those December and March may occur. However, divergences between price and MFI can exist for long periods of time. Therefore, as with all indicators, the MFI should be used in tandem with other indicators that can provide confirmation of any signals it sends...
nyse or consolidated volume? based on what i've looked for a while a stock like bac could trade 1/6th to 1/14th of its volume on the nyse. the nyse is dying and not a good proxy.
huge fan of zerointelligence.
-beeker
Bond market closed on Monday means we have a solid drift up all day on low vol. Mark it down.
and if the bond market were to be open? same
nothing mattersmr. rhino. don't kid yourself
this farce is a controlled illusion. nothing impacts it.
A 52 week high on low volume suggests that those who are in and those who are out are too frightened to make a move with any kind of conviction. When this thing breaks it gonna be an avalanche--maybe even the kind that defies gravity and goes up, but I doubt it. This situation kinda reminds me of a time I was backcountry skiing and needed to make a traverse below a large overhanging cornice. I thought twice, held my breath, but decided to make the move. I literally bet my life. Needless to say I won, but on my return to the same spot several hours later an avalanche large enough to knock over trees had gone through. Sometimes you get lucky. This time I'm not feeling so lucky. Fear is overcoming my greed. Going to cash to watch the action on the sidelines for a while. Sigmund.
"After all, these guys are explicitly supporting the mortgage market, explicitly supporting TBTF institutions."
BINGO #94500.
It's rational because it is a championed fact.
I find it extremely difficult to understand why one need speculate as to whether "market" manipulation is occurring when reams of evidence are there for all to see since the beginning of the written word. "Free markets" have never existed and will never exist in even the most "primitive" and "advanced" societies.
The sooner people internalize this fact the better. And the sooner financial market astrologers will discard their Bloomberg terminals and "technical analysis" and stop funneling millions into Michael's bank account which ultimately fund his illegal mayoral drive via enthrallment with Pythogorean bean patterns.
Acknowledging you fund your own enslavement is the first step toward enlightenment.
"Our calamity is heightened by reflecting that we furnish the means by which we suffer.". OG T Paine
hmmm, a lot has changed...
Wait a sec, but VOL is pretty near pre-2008 levels; isn't this more representative of normal than the last 16 months? Granted, stocks are nearing '30-type oversold areas, but, hey, this bear rally isn't that odd, maybe just steeper than most.
Couldn't read all the way thru t;he thread, but if this is posted above I second...
High volume is bullish
Low volume is bullish
Strong dollar is bullish
Weak dollar is bullish
Great earnings are bullish
Mediocore earnings are bullish
Better than expected losses are bullish
Obama is bullish
Health care bills are bullish
Congress doing nothing is bullish
Buy, buy, buy, buy, buy!! Yee ha! Biggest bull bonanza in history!!
Copper and VIX index are still warning us.
www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
so how do we renumber the wave count now. hahahaha. what a joke EW analysis is---great rearview mirror, useless for prediction
Has anybody dug into why FDIC and FHA are going begging for money if the TARP supposedly has all this money back from the problem banks. I read that there may be as much as 300 billion dollars available in TARP.
Today was AWESOME! We should do that again, have a traders holiday, maybe on Wednesday?
I said this in Spet. watch the markets get gunned to totally, utterly stump the shorts. Volume is probably 50% bots trading-so that means there ain't nobody in this market trading.
And now that the FED is able to monetize into eternity and throw money around at equities, I would say the stock market is near 100% off limits. Don't even bother.
Indeed a very low turnover. Did they add the dark pools and the crossing systems??
Throughout this rally, the move up has come on low volume in the NYSE and other exchanges.
Can it be that the volume is actually much higher, but hidden from the public eye through the mechanics of the dark liquidity pools (and similar tricks?)
Who has any data on this that may give a more complete picture? Can it be that some are buying lots of stock but it does not show on the "official" volume data?
admin
at http://invetrics.com
Who is actually IN the stock market besides the Plunge Protection team's primary dealers and some correspondng hedge funds or demoralized 401k mutual funds. I know so many people who have abandoned their 401's because they are just a scam. A low volatility pool of cash from which the speculators go to the craps tables with.