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SPY Volume 40% Below Average
As the market shoots up once more, there is absolutely no volume breadth participation aside from the traditional program traders who now enjoy complete domination over daily market moves. The SPY intraday volume is plunging relative to average, and at last check 62 million shares were traded compared to a 105 million average by this point in the day: a 40% drop! This should account for all those on the "sidelines" who have taken the Wall Street equivalent of the Main Street revolt to heart, and refuse to participate in what everyone realizes is a market that has no connection to any underlying fundamental reality. We wish the computers all the best as they gun the S&P to 1,600 on 20% real unemployment, $9 trillion in budget deficits, a CRE collapse, waning stimulus effects, and a fast approaching 10% savings rate.
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Exactly. Volume won't matter until it becomes a crushing selloff. Otherwise, last Tuesday's action would have meant something.
Ya but the problem is when the sell volume pick and when it ends, the low volume up move can go up higher! So what does (and who care) about volume then?! It seems low volume upward move always win out!
"We wish the computers all the best as they gun the S&P to 1,600 on 20% real unemployment, $9 trillion in budget deficits, a CRE collapse, waning stimulus effects, and a fast approaching 10% savings rate."
Great line, had to laugh, and laugh again.
... god i really don't like it when people look over my cubicle walls to see why i'm laughing.
Rule of 4 breakout.
Sell if you got 'em.
"We wish the computers all the best as they gun the S&P to 1,600 on 20% real unemployment, $9 trillion in budget deficits, a CRE collapse, waning stimulus effects, and a fast approaching 10% savings rate."
it works until it doesn't. ride it out till it turns.
I thought the new rules dictated that SPY only trade volume in AH session?
Does size really matter?
issue here is the defination of normal/benchmark. because everything is relative - hahaha.
not to change the subject but steve jobs looks like a walking corpse, jesus.
Was the appearance of Steve Jobs the market's jumping of the shark? He really doesn't look like he should be out of bed, let alone on a stage.
Do I smell desperation?
DJ Barrick Dehedging Drove Gold Price Move - Analysts
this came out about 5 mins ago
Quite likely, but ABX wouldn't drop the hedge if it wasn't confident about firm prices.
Their hedges were in the $300 range. So their removal should mean that ABX is quite confident that gold will stay about the $300 level.
At $300 I'd go all in bullion.
not that it's ever going to happen again though
Crazy to have hedges at $300. They have to cover.
http://www.gata.org/node/7773
I make their cover at about $600 based on the cash they take from the share dilution. I always avoided ABX in favour of GG, now even moreso.
Two scenarios here:
1. The Gold Carry Trade is over and ABX just took a big one courtesy of China. In that case gold is going up big. If China does the same with silver, then silver is going up even more.
2. Just another sucker play to add to the list. CBs and the IMF will start crapping on about gold sales real soon, lease away, start some swaps, double book and flood PM paper out there to re-establish the GCT. ABX turn around and sell-forward again having taken advantage of a cash infusion from sucker investors.
I wanna see some very big players (BRICs) run up some huge contracts and stand firm for delivery, then things are gonna get really interesting.
Having worked as a consultant for a major mining company before, I can tell you that there is no better time to bail than when they become "confident about firm prices."
+1 for cynicism, I like it. But in this case I don't actually think ABX had a choice. Their covering should eliminate a lot of paper which is bullish...until the assholes turn around and sell forward again.
at the risk of suffering the censorship of tyler (he censored a "vaseline" comment of mine but he gets to use goldfingered?)
imho, as long as you have a core competencies and are open to guidance, all will turn out very well. just stay away from valtrex girls!!!
A corpse with a new liver. Poor liver will outlive its host.
isn't it always vapors for volume pre-beige book?
the market going up is no mystery as shorting a dull market is always a bad idea.
Shorts will probably get blow torched again after a jerk down reaction to fed BB. Has been a reliable pattern.
Hope it goes straight to 1045.
And then the frog takes a bath.
I like the high savings rate. The higher the better, it must drive losers like Krugman crazy.
The foolishness of the powers that be knows no ends. Belief that one can control a market is an old folly. And it always works brilliantly until it doesn't.
All in good time. The obliteration that they are setting the stage for, (with no idea that they are) will be one for the history books.
And all the perpetrators and all the players believe that the penalty for these days will be more inquests and passive outrage. They have no idea of the pain and personal devastation that awaits them.
Keep it up boys. There's a storm coming.
I agree this is going to end very badly........except the computer controllers (banks) don't care because of taxpayer monies. If you not a bank don't bet on the government saving your ass this time.
and about 1 in 100,000 of those is an actual market participant (non liquidity provider).
by my guestimation.
I am not trading. My wife is not trading. My friends are not trading. My family is not trading.
That said, I am hoping FAZ can get shit-canned down to $5. Maybe then I will get back into the market.
It's a casino. Since May I'm leaving only that amount of money on the table that I can afford to loose. Rest is cash.
I'm playing the penny slots and have had better luck than going short.
Ask me if I'd throw any serious money into blue chips, banks or high tech.
Nope.
Even emerging markets are hyped up on bull shit. The traders there are not able to understand that S&P and DJI get ramped up on propaganda and manipulation.
On the ground the real economy is deteriorating further. Nobody dares to look.
I bought FAZ today, hope you're WRONG for my sake... ;-)
Nice chart.
Is FAZ meant for only day time trading or does it work for buy and hold for some time.
Buy and hold is very risky on all the leveraged ETF's especially the 3x ... but you can negate much of that disadvantage by selling options against your positions, some of the premiums can be excessive. Personally think that you should be a very active trader to be involved with them though.
Only if your time frame for "buy and hold" doesn't exceed 5 trading days.
Like Big Al said, it doesn't work if you hold it for any considerable amount of time beyond a week or so. Timing is everything with these and no, "buy both, one has to win" isn't an exception to the rule about timing. One has to get near 100% return on one of the ETFs for it to work and if you can time 100% gains that well, why not buy the profitable ETF wholly?
For me the most I hold these is 4 days. The way the markets are right now it's hard to capture intraday gains that haven't already been made by 10, or built upon by 3:30.
What a farce.
the mkt climbs a wall of worry - bbwwahahahahahaha. this is such a joke. i'm enjoying a massive day on top of a massive week, but I know the carpet will be pulled ouf from beneath me at a moments notice
It'll probably keep on like this for the rest of the week. We'll see.
loading up on more PSQ...
Again....
Woo Hoo
Just sold my house, just 7% under asking price, and am happy as a clam.
Will either downsize mucho or lease for a while. Would lease a good while if I was sure mortgage rates would stay down, but no guarantees there.
I have zero debt, and even if I do buy soon will have very little debt. Waht unbelievable stress relief.
Congrats.
Unless you own it, it's not really yours!
Feels good to be debt free, doesn't it?
Congratulations man, seriously. That feeling of stress relief is worth a lot more than a 7% miss.
Thanks all. But seriously, I thought 7% was nothing, I was prepared to go much lower.
I am so happy the hopium trade worked for you. at least you weren't the one chasing the dragon in that transaction.
Welcome to the freedom of being debt free.
Our President is talking healthcare tonight - need to drum up some optimism from the peanut gallery. Funny, I never used to think like this but I've seen these moves happen on no news too many times to discount intervention for political means.
TD -
Lots of places opening commodity brokerages. Sure sign of bubble
Sounds like a server rack went offline.
You guys must be dying on this website a little every day. The market keeps going up. Keep spinning all the conspiracy theories, dummies. Bahahahahahahahaa
what goes up always comes down at one point
They have built a lot of paper profits since March, but if more than a few try to book them the house will fall down.
Really? Now you're just making stuff up. That number on the far right of the chart is the Daily Accumulated Average Volume at the Period ending at the far right of the chart (around 1:50pm EST)!!!
The actual DAAV at the time of day you posted this (around 12:30EST) was actually around 88mm shares. Granted, still quite a bit above the 62mm, but not the 105mm you're implying.
Whichever Tyler posted this is repeatedly making these factual errors on their bberg. I agree with most of the premises all the Tyler's post on here, but making these same mistakes, whether intentional or not, dilutes your message.
... and what about consideration for the short post-holiday week? isn't that typically lower vol. anyway?
A classic sign of a market that has little participation from anybody (as you said) outside of the momentum players. The public has BUGGER ALL money in this sham, therefore it is primed to collapse like never before. Nobody will be buying on the way down this time, as even shorts have been restricted with what they can do. They have sealed its fate.
Look for the NASDAQ to hit 2,100 and the SPX 1,100 before an all-on collapse.
Steve;
You bring up an important point regarding short sellers. When you burn them and restrict them, there are no natural buyers on a correction. I think we've seen the equivalent of pushing all of our chips to to the center of the table to bet on a pair of twos.
More like three-seven off suit...
:(
two-seven off suit is the phrase... three-seven can still fill a straight.
Ace Eight was Wild Bill's last hand....
With 5 players left in the hand and JQK suited on the board.
Fantastic comment, Ben is all in and has called.
Great point on the short sellers, can't wait to see it all unfold.
The DTG/CAR/HTZ computer must have gotten a RAM upgrade this week. Having positive tangible book value is so 2007.
Aren't you tired of explaining day-in-day-out why the market isn't supposed to do what it does every day? especially when it goes up, that is.
Like the doesn't-look-good-three-failed-breakout-attempts yesterday ... where are they now? oh, 10 points under.
Re: Steve Jobs
For those of us who have been on deaths doorstep the one thing you want to do is get back to normal activity. Yea you may look like shit, but your not dead and you will do anything to just get back to living.
Instead of seeing desperation; try seeing the triumph human sprit.
I see a zombie on the hunt for brains!
You're a bastard, but you made me laugh.
the higher they the Benny and Timmy pump it, the higher the average price for my short will be.
just don't use margin, so you can sleep well without worrying about 'squeezes'.
because, why worry, if people don't have money to spend, people don't have money to spend.
Jobs looks pretty good, considering. The market is climbing a, uh, "wall of worry" lol. When the crash comes, it will make 1987 look like a practice session.
How much of this volume is from arbitrage against the underlying, and is there a way to find that number? Netting that out would produce much more accurate indication (and I would expect a much sharper decline) of the true volume.
There are so many oddities about this market, that make it seem so irrational. MTLQQ is still worth more than $500M.
AIG has a market cap of more than $5B. FNM and FRE still have a market cap.
There are other companies that seem downright cheap. WMT which is gaining market share everyday as its competitors go BK now trades at less than 8x EBITDA. Now if someone can explain the scenario in which WMT is a loser, I love to read it.
WalMart has a very heavy fixed cost component. Their stores require enormous turnover to stay profitable, as does their distribution network. What happens if consumer spending continues to go soft? Operating leverage cuts both ways. That's the only downside I see for WalMart.
Always with the negative waves, the negative waves.
Nadeem Walayat has assured his readers that we are in a stealth bull market, predicts INDU to reach 9,750 to 10,000 by end of October.
Chides all the naysayers with this bromide:
"Pick up any reputable technical analysis book and you will read that that a bull market in stocks is confirmed when an major stock indices (that's the DJIA) rallies by 20% from the low (allowing for a few days of whipsaw), similarly a bear market is confirmed when an stock indices falls by 20% from the high , therefore regardless of perma views of this being a bear market rally, the facts are clear that under the basis of technical analysis this rally has long since been confirmed as a bull market more than 30% ago!"
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13288.html
Take that you negative nellies!!!
Nadeem Walayat is right based on definitions but the problem with the Bull camp is what supports the bull market, not that it exists today. People like Walayat are only concerned with what happens, never why it happens.
In my opinion, we're seeing a carefully orchestrated plan to give us the appearance that everything is alright in the world. A 246,000 drop in employment is marketed as a big improvement over previous months. A 3.5% rise in German export orders from a bottom is marketed as definitive proof that the global economy is back on its feet.
Cash for clunkers was a plan that helped two sets of economic variables - retail sales and manufacturing activity - gives the appearance of stability. $8,000 tax credits for first-time home buyers gives the appearance that the housing market has fixed itself because new and existing home sales are no longer falling. These are the things that are supposed to tell us that green shoots are for real.
The stock market rising on no volume and rising HFT as a percentage of total is marketed as proof that things are getting better. The problem is that those of us who look behind the numbers don't like what we see. Speaking for other bears, we see what appears to be a concerted effort to put us at ease. Maybe it is a bull market but the foundation upon which real bull markets are built isn't there this time and no amount of credit or public relations can change that.
Right, I love it when technicals and fundamentals are used to support a bull market but in the same context are supposed to be ignored.
Tyler,
Can you compare these volumes also against 2006-2007 average volume? Since the volumes we have seen in the last year cannot be considered as normal.
Could not agree more with the most. Market run by computers and the FED. The free market ended long ago. You have better odds sitting at a slot machine.
I think it is possible that the current stock "bull market" run is a cleverly thought
out plan to bilk private investors of the remainder of their savings. After all, there seems to be few fundamental reasons for the markets to keep going higher.
The big boys still have major financial problems with their balance sheets, despite receiving a huge amount of bailout funds, and need to pocket more profits. Time is of the essence. It is possible that they may have to mark to market someday, which would show that some (most?) of them are really insolvent (though I would say it is unlikely to happen soon, if ever).
It could work something like this:
Step 1) get small investors to buy into mutual funds, or other "managed" accounts. This is done via direct advertising via TV/radio/internet, mailings, etc. Getting new accounts should be easy now, as the markets have had historic run ups, and show little sign of correcting. The cheerleaders on TV, online, etc., posit that "the recession is over," "economy is picking up," "we see signs of solid growth," etc.
Step 2) run up the stock prices, by trading via the financial companies’ private trading accounts, using computers, and sophisticated software, of course. Something like “I will buy yours, if you buy mine” i.e.… JPM buys from UBS, who buys from GS, who buys from…
Step 3) Once you have reached the "target" number, dump (by selling… you get a commission that way too) whatever shares are in the company trading accts into the fiduciary/managed accounts (existing/old accts, and those obtained in step #1), and pocket the profits.
Step 4) pay out big bonuses, and enjoy the holiday season.
Step 5) at this point, the "big boys" can crash the markets, (and short on the way down, using their trading accounts), and suck their fiduciary accounts dry.
Lather, rinse, repeat.
Of course, for this to work, the regulators must be absent, or not enforcing the regulations. That means the big boys must be working along with the government….
Ya think??? Nah…
Have you started to notice the correlation between volume on up days and down days? Have you noticed that its no different today than 20 years ago? Have you ever wondered why options volatility smiles exhibit skew? Have you wondered why they have had skew for almost as long as data goes back? Rallies are typically off of low volume, crashes are typically off of high volume. Rallies are expected, crashes are not. SPY was up .77% today, that is not a statistically significant move, the vix is 24ish.....
Amazing. 40% lower volume and the primary stocks trading the heaviest volume on the NYSE are zombies: C,GE, BAC, FRE, FNM, WFC, etc. on any given day of the week. And out of that list, most have or are under some degree of total or heavy government control.
And we "the people" are supposed to believe the markets are not rigged? Uh, huh....
the shit is fixin to hit the fan - get ready for Obama's party to end in a big way