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Spying on Elite Funds - Part 1

Submitted by Leo Kolivakis on 05/24/2011 01:42 -0400

It was a beautiful long weekend in Montreal. I tried to enjoy it as much
as possible getting out of the house every chance I got. Even went out
with some buddies of mine on Saturday night and came back in the wee
hours of the morning. Haven't stayed up that late in a long time and of
course, paid the price on Sunday as I was in a zombie state pretty much all
day. One thing about turning 40,
you can't party like your 20 anymore, which is something my trainer
reminded me of tonight as he trained me hard and screamed "TO STAY LEAN
AND MEAN, NO ALCOHOL!!!"

I promised a follow-up on a few comments I started over the last two weekends, a brief intro to secrets of elite funds and keep on dancing till the world ends.
This week, we're going to delve deeper into this mysterious, secret
world of elite funds as we analyze some of their recently released 13-F quarterly filings
for Q1 2011. After reading this comment, and the follow-up in Part 2,
you'll be in a better position to understand what elite funds are buying
and selling, and more importantly, how to use this information to your
advantage.

Let me state flat
out, my goal is to educate many investors, not spoonfeed them stocks to
buy. Never, ever under any circumstance buy a stock blindly, even if
elite funds are loading up on it. All major banks and institutions
analyze 13F filings and quite often, these stocks are targeted by naked
short sellers, large hedge funds and big bank prop desks which love to
manipulate them up and down.

Moreover, as you will see in my follow-up comment in Part 2, I'm a heavy risk-taker.
That's me. I have no risk manager breathing down my neck and do
whatever the hell I want with my money. I will ask other people's
advice, but at the end of the day, the buck stops with me and nobody
else, just the way I like it (even elite funds have constraints on the
positions they take on any one stock) I've been beaten, battered,
bruised and enjoyed ups and downs, but that's part of the game when you
take inordinate risk in a very concentrated portfolio. I do this because
I truly believe that over the long-term this is the way elite funds
consistently beat the indexes.

Having said this, just because I
am taking huge risk with my money, doesn't mean I'm always right. I can
stomach large swings in my personal portfolio and would never manage an
institutional portfolio the same way or advocate that others do the
same. For me, sitting in front of a computer all day trading was an
extremely humbling and "real world" educational experience. Lots of
senior pension fund managers have never traded for a living and they
don't understand the ins and out of trading or managing money. For them,
it's all about theory and the Efficient-Market Hypothesis
(EMH). Worse still, some senior managers blindly believe in their risk
models and leave no room for Black Swan events (which are occurring more
frequently; instead of once every 100 years, it's once every five
years).

Only when you trade stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities and
derivatives do you realize how irrelevant EMH is in the real world. The
stock market in particular is heavily manipulated by big banks and their
big hedge funds clients using multi-million dollar high-frequency
trading platforms. Don't for a second think it's all clean -- there is
huge information asymmetry. That's why I urge all retail investors to go
back and carefully read my comment on the big secret where I offer practical advice for most investors to follow.

Also, there a lot of doomsayers who believe the world is about to end.
In fact, some preacher made a prediction that it was going to happen
yesterday (nothing happened, what a shocker!). Then there are those who
blindly believe in "sell in May and go away". They're going to be proven
wrong too, but for now, it seems like there are plenty of jittery
investors worried about the next shoe to fall (just look at the
headlines above; click on image to enlarge).

After that long
preamble, let's get to business analyzing the holdings of elite funds.
Macro news is just noise; we want to focus on what elite funds are
actually buying and selling. Actions speak louder than words.

Let me begin with an article that lifted my spirits up this weekend (no pun intended). UPI reports that Viagra reduces MS symptoms in animals:

Multiple
sclerosis symptoms in animals with the disease were drastically
reduced by the sexual dysfunction drug Viagra, researchers in Spain
say.

The study, published in Acta
Neuropathologica, showed a practically complete recovery occurred in
50 percent of the animals after eight days of treatment of the drug
normally used in the treatment of erectile dysfunction.

Drs.
Agustina Garci and Juan Hidalgo of the Universitat Autonoma de
Barcelona studied the effects of a treatment using sildenafil -- sold
under the brand name Viagra -- in an animal model of multiple
sclerosis.

If given shortly after
disease onset, the scientists say they observed the drug reduced the
infiltration of inflammatory cells into the white matter of the spinal
cord, reducing damage to the nerve cell's axon and facilitating myelin
repair.

Before you dismiss these findings, I already discussed them with my
doctor friends and it turns out there is a plausible theory behind this.
Viagra is a vasodilator which helps erectile dysfunction (ED) and why
it may indeed help MS. Go back to read my comment on the road to liberation to understand the connection and please educate yourself on the benefits of vitamin D as it is quickly becoming linked to all sorts of conditions (check out Google news articles on Vitamin D; best in the form of D-drops in a glass of water, first thing every morning).

What
does Viagra have to do with the holdings of elite funds? Why do I still
have hard-on for stocks two and half years after I wrote my comment on post-deleveraging blues? Because institutions are still horny for hedge funds and still shoving billions into them, allowing them to grow larger and larger.
More money flowing into directional hedge funds (L/S equity, global
macro, CTA) means you will see wild gyrations in all risk assets,
including high beta stocks.

I sent that Viagra article to a friend
of mine and think he got a bigger hard-on than me. He owns a boatload
of Pfizer stock (PFE) which has done quite well over the last year, going from $14 to nearly $21.
Now, look at the top institutional holders as of March 31st, 2011 by
clicking in the image below (data is free on Yahoo finance for every
stock):

I note that the the world's largest asset managers own it, Blackrock, Vanguard, Fidelity (FMR), Wellington, but I also noticed Dodge & Cox,
one of the best fund managers in the world with a long-term stellar
track record. They invest their own money alongside their investors and
were out of technology long before the bubble burst in 2001 (it cost
them some clients but they all came back).

So let's dig deeper in
Pfizer. The above just gives you a snapshot; it doesn't tell you
whether Dodge and Cox and other funds were adding to their Pfizer
position during Q1 2011. In order to get this information, you go on the
NASDAQ website and type in Pfizer's stock symbol (PFE) at the top, hit
enter, which brings you to this page. Scroll down the left hand side and under holdings, click on detailed institutional holdings, which will bring you to this page.

You
will find the same funds listed above, along with all the other
institutions that hold Pfizer shares, except now you can click on the
funds and have a lot more details on all their holdings. I clicked on
Dodge and Cox, which is on page 2 of the link above, and it brings me to
a page that looks like this (click on image to enlarge):

I
then scroll down to Pfizer and can see that they own 104,764,233
shares at the end of Q1 2011 (March 31st, 2011). Moreover, their
position was unchanged. The cool thing about the NASDAQ site is that you
can click on the headers at the top of each column to get even more
information. For example, if you click on shares held, you will see
their top holdings in terms of number of shares (click on image to
enlarge):

You'll
notice that Dodge and Cox's top holdings as of March 31st, 2011 are:
Sprint Nextel, News Corp, General Electric, Boston Scientific, Comcast,
Xerox, Pfizer, Vodafone, Hewlett Packard, Wells Fargo, Aegon,
GlaxoSmithKline, Cemex SAB, Merck, Symantec, Time Warner, etc.

So
what? This shows me that they're heavy into big pharma now, positioning
their portfolio into more defensive names (healthcare is 20% of their
holdings) but they also take selective bets in banks (Wells Fargo) and
technology (Symantec).

Once you have this information, you can
look at the charts, see if price is above the 50-day and 200 day moving
average, start tracking these companies and notice whether each dip is
being bought and whether the stock keeps making news highs. Again, do
not buy any stock blindly, even if elite funds are buying it, but use
this publicly available information to start tracking what the elite
funds are buying and to help you select a diversified portfolio of
companies in all sectors. Or, if you're a risk-taker like me, you can
take more concentrated bets on a few companies.

Think I will end Part 1 here and delve into what other elite funds are
buying and selling in my follow-up comment. If you enjoy these stock
comments, please show your appreciation by clicking on the PayPal
button which says "donate" under the pig at the top of my blog site.
I welcome all financial support, large or small (PayPal calls it
donation but I'm not a charity, just a blogger who writes on pensions,
markets and health).

Finally, if you're an institution, broker or family office looking to
get a lot more detailed breakdown on what each top fund I track closely
is buying and selling and which sectors they're focusing on, then please
contact me by email (LKolivakis@gmail.com) and I will be glad to offer
you my services for a reasonable fee. I truly believe if you use this
information wisely, adding some basic technical and fundamental analysis
and money management principles, it will help you gain the advantage
you're looking for.

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Tue, 05/24/2011 - 11:48 | 1305284 JW n FL

I will say this!

Leo, tries to keep a smile on his face..

Leo, takes his losses in public like a man..

Leo, does share with good intentions..

Now, you can beat the guy up because he is NOT Jesus and Perfect on his calls.. or you can dispute whether participating in the Market is Treason or Stupidity!

But Leo does try to keep a smile on his face and sharing the whole while.

it is easy to sit around, contributing nothing and bitching about the quality of everyone else's posts!

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 11:51 | 1305318 JW n FL

and! you could start reading!

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Longevity Risk is regarded as key reading for (re)insurance company professionals, finance managers/directors, investors, actuaries, corporate sponsors, trustees of pension schemes, investment bankers and graduate students/academics.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 11:57 | 1305330 JW n FL

dont forget to hedge! BUY! PM's!!

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 10:05 | 1304812 Downtoolong

I can stomach large swings in my personal portfolio and would never manage an institutional portfolio the same way or advocate that others do the same.

Stamina may be the only edge that small investors can have over the big guys. In the last 18 months, the greatest return on assets I have made (about 23% pa) was simply selling covered call options over my few individual stock holdings in a market that is basically going nowhere. Of course, I had to watch and ride through a period of time when the value of that mini portfolio was down over 30%. I would never put more than about 5% of my money into a scheme like this.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 09:41 | 1304739 Fiat2Zero

Leo,

Going step-by-step through your mid-life crisis is fucking awful. You're going Russell-Crowe-beautiful-mind on us with your Viagra-science-Brittany-spears connections.

Please post a picture of your room full of post it notes so we can get you the help you need.

Also, the elite masters may allow you to pour drinks for the guests on their yachts. Keep sucking up and towing the party line and you'll get some table crumbs, no doubt.

T.E.I.N. Baby.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 08:51 | 1304588 homersimpson

Sorry - but very few hedge fund owners (if any) impress me simply because when the market is down, odds are they are, too.

I don't work in the financial industry, but there is nothing they are doing that makes me go "hey, I can't do what they're doing."

As for that Pfizer example, you can make a lot of cases where the stock went up in the same fashion like a bunch of other ones... simply because the gov't was funding the artificial ramp up via QE. Nothing impressive - just business as usual. Get back to me when QE is gone - as well as trillions in artificial stimuli, and we'll see how good these money "managers" are.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 09:14 | 1304656 Leo Kolivakis

Most hedge funds suck! They are selling beta as alpha. But the elite funds are very impressive. You can't find many Citadels, Caxtons, Bridgewaters, and Soros out there. Stop being stubborn. The best funds are run by the best managers. Period.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 11:23 | 1305144 Thisson

Bullshit. Everyone's brilliant in an up-market.

In a nation of coin-flippers, is the luckiest coinflipper simply the most "skilled" at coinflipping? Of course not.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 09:35 | 1304715 LawsofPhysics

Okay, fair enough. Now take away ALL QE and let's see how they "manage" things. Let's find out where the real "value" is when the government isn't picking the winners for us.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 08:46 | 1304581 williambanzai7

Leo, would you kindly update us on all the bubbly prognostications you made about the Greek economy last year?

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 09:09 | 1304652 Leo Kolivakis

throw Greece in my face as much as you want but it isn't over until I see a major default. By the way, here are the major institutional holders of NBG:

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?symbol=NBG&selected=NBG&FormType=Institutional

Are Blackrock and Renaissance Tech stupid?

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 11:21 | 1305129 Thisson

Blackrock and Renaissance aren't stupid but they both have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. They get a percentage of investment proceeds, and will keep getting paid as long as our ponzi economy continues.

Nevertheless, you can be sure that the principals of those firms each have a safe full of gold somewhere on the grounds of their palatial Connecticut estates because they are not stupid and know this:

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." - Ludwig von Mises

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 09:30 | 1304692 williambanzai7

Greece is right about where everyone thought it would wind up and it is still rolling downhill. No amount of Greek can do puffery is going to change it. The situation is beyond their control.

I get dizzy reading you and MHFT, and I am not saying this as any kind of attack. But sometimes it is better to just admit a mistake or miscalculation and move on.

BTW, I think the real story on Viagra is how easy it is to manufacture in developing world countries for pennies on the dollar charged in the US and the margins it creates for Chinese generic drug outfits.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 09:21 | 1304679 The Profit Prophet

Leo....do us all a favour and please just admit you are a paid shill. You appear to be smart enough to know that every market is completely rigged....why do you pretend otherwise?

T.E.I.N. everyone!

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 08:51 | 1304602 tgatliff

EXACTLY!!! Leo is like Cramer... Predict.. Predict.. Predict.. and act like you know what you are doing.

To believe anything Leo says would to believe that the markets still have some fundamentals left, and that is in no way true. The markets go up when the FED steals money from the average mans pocket and makes sure the banks put it into equities. It goes down when they slow down. The markets crash when they stop.

The only difference between now and the great depression is that the first time we allowed fundamentals to crash the markets. Now we just prop everything up and hope the public is dumb enough to believe everything is fine...

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 10:00 | 1304787 williambanzai7

This is really a difficult concept for many people to grasp. Sure whether a company is running well is important. But it has about .00001% relevance in the current situation.

The best thing to do is stay away from the shit that is all Ponzi'd up.

And you know what, there is a diabolical game one can play trying to outwit the money printers. But that requires an admission of an opening premise. I know this is rigged to the hilt and I am going to get my own smart licks in.

But that is not what you hear from the shills that want you to believe everything is all right. Anyone who believes everything is all right deserves to be taken to the cleaners and the sure as shit will.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 08:36 | 1304560 LawsofPhysics

damn, I thought Leo might talk about funds that only the "elite" have access to. So long as fraud remains the status quo, I am long everything that can not be created out of thin air by some fucknut with a business or economics degree.

Interestingly, I was interviewing another candidate for our open accountant position when the candidate mentioned some of the financial "inventions" he had worked on. As an engineer and scientist that was the end of the interview for me. These twenty-somethings really do have their heads up their collective asses. Changing the meaning of words does not make you more useful to society. The bottom line is this; there remain far too many people extracting massive sums of real wealth from the economy without adding real value. This is not sustainable and the whole game becomes one of staying in business and minimizing losses as long as the fraud goes unpunished. I sold paper gold in November and bought more land and hard assets for my operation. I also hold a number of currencies in reserve. If I lost all my customers tomorrow (which won't happen because people need to eat) we could stay in business until August 2012 at this burn rate. Prosecute the fucking fraud already because I know most businesses are not positioned this well and it all goes to hell, then it becomes one big free-for-all, but that is another story altogether.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 09:17 | 1304638 Leo Kolivakis

I have repeatedly stated there are far too many financial ''engineers'' earning millions working on bullshit algorithms but I can throw something back in your face. If you are getting an engineering or scientific degree to become a millionaire, you're an idiot. My father is a doctor and says the same thing about medecine. Doctors should worry more about treating people than getting rich.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 10:18 | 1304860 LawsofPhysics

"Doctors should worry more about treating people than getting rich." Okay fucknut, then I guess the COST of obtaining the medical degree and opening a practice needs to go down. The doctors I know certainly are not getting rich. Perhaps they should simply default on all their loans? Again, your comments ignore several realities. You want to play the markets and make debt-free money, but you want doctors to to be debt-slaves that provide you with low-cost health care. You really are a fucking shill aren't you?

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 11:18 | 1305101 Thisson

I'm not sure what you're getting at, here. Student loans are not dischargeable in bankruptcy, and if you default on them, they will just garnish your wages. The real issue here is that the availability of non-dischargeable (and guaranteed) student loans makes education more expensive. It's no longer possible to work your way through school like previous generations did. That needs to change.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 11:56 | 1305327 LawsofPhysics

Thanks for better articulating my thoughts.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 09:29 | 1304695 LawsofPhysics

When did I say I was trying to become a millionaire? Developing and delivering technology takes time and careful capital allocation. On paper, my assets make me a millionaire but I also provide a livelihood for 30+ people and their families. How many people is your work supporting Leo? Did I strike a nerve? If you are not simply another fucking shill with a degree in economics, why so hostile? My only concern is delivering for my customers and advancing the technology. Any good engineer knows it can take a lifetime and several careers to do the latter.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 11:25 | 1305164 Trillax

Laws, right on the head of the nail.

These 'economists'/'money managers'/whatever do not produce or contribute. There only function is to suck the financial blood out of the host and leave it's husk in the wake. Financial snake oil salesmen who derive 'structured asset-backed securities' or 'derivative financial instruments' create nothing to benifit humanity except for the small few who fall for thier schemes and enjoy a short period of 'wealth'.

Real "wealth" is the sometimes intangibles -- employment, invention, discovery, concept, etc.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 11:18 | 1305084 Thisson

Leo is a cheerleader for the status quo. Nonetheless, his contributions are still welcome because they help me continue to validate my belief that there is going to be a schism between the real economy and the paper economy.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 08:31 | 1304543 Dolemite

Gold at a crossroads?

Oil completing it's dead cat bounce?

http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 08:31 | 1304542 mrdenis

I don't think Leo is saying PFE is a buy ,but he is saying ,Fidelity and a few other Inst still believe it is .....I believe it's a nice place to park your money earn a 3.75 % yield while you wait for the break-up ..

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 08:45 | 1304580 Leo Kolivakis

Thanks mrdenis, nice to see some of you are actually READING my comments before posting your comments. - :)

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 07:54 | 1304478 gulf breeze

If your holding SOLARS your taking it between the cheeks.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 08:06 | 1304495 Leo Kolivakis

Still holding solars and getting killed on them but I will cover the manipulation of solars in detail in Part 2 and explain why these solar meltdowns are huge buying opportunities. I will also look at other hot sectors with tremendous potential, not just solars.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 07:18 | 1304444 I am a Man I am...

pfizer is not a good buy at these levels and is down 10 percent over 5 years, it was a good buy between 14 and 15, sprint nextel is a crap company, GSK is struggling big time, people are being robbed by large institutions

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 09:11 | 1304654 Weisbrot

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWacc6L9NoU

Spying on Elite Funds - Part 1

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