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A Squeeze Or A Rally? Goldman Increasingly Doubting Its Bullishness (Time To Buy?)

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Goldmans' Dominic Wilson,director of global macro & markets research, is out with a note which indicates a material shift in the firm's sentiment on risk. In a nutshell, the firm, unwilling to fight the macro double dip headwinds is prepared to concede that the American stimulus/reflation experiment has failed, and that investors should instead focus on underperforming markets (O'Neill's N-11 comes to mind): "Our own forecasts point to one other emerging theme. We see more risks of slowing in the economy where people have seemed most comfortable (US) and expect less slowing in places where people are more worried (Europe, China). If our forecasts are right, US domestic outperformance could ultimately reverse more." Also amusing is the attempt to reconcile a slightly bullish residual view on risk assets with the firm's 1.15 target on the EURUSD which would imply an S&P in the triple digit range. In summary - get out of America if you are a Goldman client, or, using the whole re-reverse psychology trick, now is the time to short the BRICs and Europe (even more), and buy the US. As usual with a Goldman report, more questions than answers, none more so than the original one - has recent market performance been a product of an actual rally, or nothing but massive squeeze?

Full report:

Markets have moved well off the lows of a couple of weeks ago, though on low volumes. European policymakers have been shifting towards stress tests and the Chinese authorities are showing some signs of flexibility on the CNY. Our central case for the global outlook is still benign and our recommended trades have a pro-risk feel again (long DAX; long MXN, CNY, PHP and KRW; short UK real rates and short protection in dislocated EM CDS).  But with global momentum past its peak and a forecast for a slower US H2, the macro backdrop is more nuanced. We think what will now be needed for this squeeze to become a sustained rally is clearer evidence that the growth cycle is not deteriorating as rapidly as markets have begun to price. The next two weeks are packed with key data and events and will be important to whether we maintain our course.

Our core view is that the transmission of sovereign and financial worries into a growth slowdown is less likely than in 2008 and 2009 (including in Europe itself). But we have argued that this recent pullback is more complicated than anything since the recovery began. First, sovereign worries and the reemergence of funding strains create genuine (if sometimes exaggerated) downside risks. Second, global momentum, while still solid, appears to have peaked on many measures and we continue to forecast a significantly slower US growth picture for H2 than consensus. Both tend to mean a more modest (though positive) trajectory for risk assets. So what the market is grappling with is more about whether slowing is over-priced than whether it is real, a judgment which is more subtle. We have seen both stabilization in sovereign credit and positive data surprises as likely conditions for a sustained recovery. There are tentative signs of the first. The question is whether they continue and are matched by supporting macro data.

The most recent development has been the shift towards renewed CNY flexibility from the PBOC. We have written about the weekend’s announcements in several places across ECS. The extent of flexibility is still not clear and the announcement is clearly aimed at diffusing pressure at the upcoming G20 meeting. But resumption of moderate appreciation is likely, consistent with the ‘risk-based tightening’ framework that Mike Buchanan has laid out. The economic impact of the kinds of movement we anticipate is not large. So the main significance is more in reducing emerging tensions and the risk of stronger domestic-focused tightening. Thomas Stolper and team anticipated the rising pressure a couple of weeks ago, taking us short 12-month USD/CNY forwards at good levels and have since added longs in KRW and PHP, which have lagged the recovery and should benefit from further CNY moves.

Markets had made significant but varied progress before the weekend’s events. Even with the disappointing price action this week, US equities are around 40% back from the recent correction, while several markets where FX depreciation was the release valve (DAX – our preferred long – and KOSPI, most notably) are close to old highs. The battered AUD has rebounded proportionately more, as have several EM currencies including USD/MXN, where we have been short. The EUR has bounced too of course (temporarily defying our new lower forecasts). But progress has been comparatively modest and several EUR crosses have made new lows or are close. As with the sell-off, the rebound been quite varied. Copper and to a degree cyclical equities now look like laggards, as do CEE3 assets. Volatility – realized and implied – is also well off the highs, something that not just reflects but has helped reinforce the relaxation, as Themos Fiotakis recently described.

The bounce has caught many by surprise, in part because a good part of it occurred while Spanish sovereign spreads were widening sharply. Reality however, has been somewhat better than this single barometer of pressure would reveal. As yesterday’s daily discusses, the Bank of Spain has announced that it will publish a stress test, as will the ECB, and there are signs that others in Europe may follow. Having argued for ongoing Spanish underperformance, Francesco Garzarelli noted last week that we now see a good chance that Spanish spreads have peaked (they have come in sharply in the last few days). Spanish equities have in fact been climbing steadily for a couple of weeks. And the brief pressure on French sovereign spreads has eased back for now. We are a long way from a resolution, and there is plenty of room for error and renewed stress, but some of the news flow has been more encouraging than the skeptics have admitted.

Unfortunately, the pop in risk assets complicates the trading picture. In many ways, it would have been easier to enter the heavy macro data calendar of the next couple of weeks and move into Q2 earnings with the market still heavily skeptical, particularly given our bias that the global macro picture is still quite benign. But with an initial squeeze behind us, the bar has already moved higher in terms of what is needed to turn this into a more sustained rally. What we are likely to need now – more than was true two weeks ago – is confirmation that the transmission to the real economy from the sovereign crisis is proving smaller than feared. That is our own clear bias. But the reality is that we have not had enough information to provide much clarity in either direction yet. And while we continue to have a constructive bias, the risks are more symmetric than they were at 1050 on the SPX. On one rebound, we are clearer: our revised forecasts look for the EUR/$ bounce to reverse (to 1.15), a process that has started – though we do not think that means that risk assets must fall too, despite recent correlations.

The next two weeks may begin to provide some clues. We are now in the macro-heavy part of the month and Europe’s crisis has been in full swing long enough that the more forward-looking data should be somewhat reflective of its impact. The (mostly second-tier US) survey data so far has been inconclusive, with rising consumer sentiment and a decent Empire survey matched by a weaker Philly Fed survey, not altogether reflective of its ‘guts’. European surveys out today have shown only modest slowing, so while things appear to be softening a little there is certainly no indication of a large shock to confidence at this point. Next week we move into the US survey season and Friday’s payrolls, which could calm or confirm the fears from the previous month. Having extended our new GS-MAP framework for assessing data to a much wider group of countries, we are even better placed to track incoming news.

The heavy calendar is not confined to the macro releases. Alongside the evolving shift in Chinese policy, today’s UK budget may be digested as a broader signal for the chances of fiscal adjustment and the risks of sovereign contagion. The G-20 summit is pending and continued announcements on European bank stress tests seem likely. The deadline for Spanish banks to apply to the FROB for recapitalization funds is June 30th. The US financial reform bill is heading into its – still uncertain – final stages. And of course quarter end – with its funding issues and asset allocation shifts – will be upon us shortly. There are times when we feel strongly about positioning heavily into events. But while we clearly have a pro-risk bias to our trades, we are open-minded enough that we can imagine changing course. And it would be comforting to see EMU periphery spreads and key measures of funding pressure come in further before relaxing too much.

As we look at where to take risk, we continue to focus most on areas where either a) policy has eased in response to the emerging crisis; b) underlying economic resilience or distance from sovereign issues are greatest and c) market reactions look most extreme. The two longer-standing pro-risk trades that we have recommended (DAX and MXN) tick one or more of these boxes. And we added a recommendation to sell protection on a basket of EM CDS recently in areas that looked most extreme versus our models (Korea, China, Poland and Czech), which alongside our long KRW and PHP recommendations have much of this flavour too. In looking across assets, some striking differences emerge. Significant FX depreciation has in places (Germany, Korea) helped to cushion local equity markets or credits (Mexico), but in others (most notably the CEE-3), currencies and local assets were hit together. And the fact that European equities are not underperforming the US, even in common currency, in a supposedly European crisis is also an oddity. So there are plenty of anomalies to work through.

Amongst the areas that look most vulnerable to signs that the global cycle is holding up are parts of the rate markets. As Francesco and team have argued over the last week or two, for the first time in many months rßßisk premia look too thin in major bond markets (Germany especially) for us to want to pursue our long-standing bullish bias and in fact our overall stance is somewhat short (through UK real rates). The market may also have to shift its views of short-term rates if slowing is limited. While the RBA’s decision to pause was widely interpreted as a sign that policymakers were taking fright at European developments (and many have cited European problems), at least as striking since then have been the central banks that have either begun tightening (NZ, Canada, Chile), continued it (Brazil, Peru) or mused over it (India, Switzerland and now one vote on the UK MPC).  As per Thomas Stolper’s latest FX Views, the Swiss are a particularly interesting case with the unsustainably large reserve accumulation increasingly at odds with somewhat more hawkish SNB policy rhetoric. Switzerland and Sweden both stand out as areas where central banks could join the ‘hikers’ more quickly if their own local data remains as strong as it has. And it is no accident that both currencies have seen fresh lows against the EUR. [TD: lows or highs?]

Our own forecasts point to one other emerging theme. We see more risks of slowing in the economy where people have seemed most comfortable (US) and expect less slowing in places where people are more worried (Europe, China). While there are no smoking guns for the degree of US slowing in our forecasts yet (1.5% annualized H2 growth), housing data has been undeniably weak again consumer data overall has softened. Interestingly, after a long period where US domestic outperformance was one of the strongest market themes, equity markets appear to be taking note, as Noah Weisberger discussed in last night’s Tradewinds. We have long argued that US housing-related stocks (as captured by our Wavefront Housing basket) had run too far ahead of the data but lost patience with a short here ahead of what is now a very clear decline. But consumer cyclicals, which were at the heart of the early 2010 rally and which we favoured then, are also now lagging (watch our Wavefront Consumer Growth basket). For the first time all year, China-related cyclicals are now outperforming consumer-related areas in the US (and H-shares may be starting to outperform the SPX). We expect sequential slowing in China too – and have been seeing it more clearly – so the relative story is still muddy. But if our forecasts are right, US domestic outperformance could ultimately reverse more.

 

 


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Wed, 06/23/2010 - 11:31 | Link to Comment Muir
Muir's picture

___

 

BUY! buy buy!!!

 

___

 

Still trying to outsmart me,
aren't you, mule skinner?

   
                  
You want me to think that
you don't want me to go down there,...

   
                  
...but the subtle truth is you really
don't want me to go down there.

 

__

Wed, 06/23/2010 - 11:20 | Link to Comment teaddy bearish
teaddy bearish's picture

come on guys who still listens to theses crooks ???

Wed, 06/23/2010 - 11:29 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

apparently they're having problems with the bp unsecured bond offering. delayed because they're still working on the prospectus. puhhleeze.

and since its a rather slow trading day, i bring you this news item:

http://www.villagevoice.com/slideshow/the-boys-of-mtvs-jersey-shore-3016...

 

Wed, 06/23/2010 - 11:54 | Link to Comment teaddy bearish
teaddy bearish's picture

why did you send me a picture of naked boys with two pounds of make up on each nipple, it is not because i am europeen that i suck cock

 

and if you are bored by this slow trading day , may i sugest you to this instead

 http://www.snotr.com/video/4607

 

Wed, 06/23/2010 - 11:26 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Could Goldman be right this time?

Wed, 06/23/2010 - 11:28 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Shit, closing out my shorts and going long.

Wed, 06/23/2010 - 11:31 | Link to Comment Mikebrah
Mikebrah's picture

Well, volume has disappeared...so I guess it's off to the races for the SPY

Wed, 06/23/2010 - 11:35 | Link to Comment MarketFox
MarketFox's picture

Wow GS is getting really desparate.....

Stating the obvious "after the fact".....

And for sure one knows that the trading facility which never loses must be looked at with a slightly larger legal magnifying glass.....

Wed, 06/23/2010 - 11:45 | Link to Comment Young
Young's picture

It's a poker game, they know that no one believes them anymore so they're putting in a bluff for their prop desks. We think they won't follow the advice so they choose the direction they want to push it. Watch AAPL (crumbling today) and USD...

Wed, 06/23/2010 - 12:02 | Link to Comment n2dark
n2dark's picture

ignore what gs says ... in fact ignore what everybody says and just take a look at the data

 

my 2 cents on the highly debated issue of 'low volume': even with roughly equal volume in down as well as up days, the fact that in spot markets hft can only take advantage of the positive spread and up to 70% of volume on todays stock markets is hft, how should one look at the actual volume on the down days vs up days ?!

Wed, 06/23/2010 - 12:09 | Link to Comment jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

After studying GS analyst calls for years, this means sell.  It is not the normal contrarion type release we usually see. Expect market to go much lower.

Wed, 06/23/2010 - 12:11 | Link to Comment Chemba
Chemba's picture

When will it become apparent to everybody that there is no such thing as a "Goldman Sachs view"?  Goldman Sachs is comprised of litterally thousands of "businesses", and each one forms their own "view".  This desk likes this, this analyst dislikes that, that desk dislikes this, that analyst likes that.

Dominc Wilson has a point of view.  Big deal.  Jan Hatzius has a view.  So what.  David Kostin has a view.  OK, whatever, who cares.

Goldman Sachs does not have a "firm view" and it does not need one because it does not take large directional positions, as a firm.  Individual "businesses" may take directional positions, but the firm does not.

 

Wed, 06/23/2010 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Borat
Borat's picture

Finally a good argument!

Wed, 06/23/2010 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Wyndtunnel
Wyndtunnel's picture

MORAL HAZARD

We all want to win
Cause nobody likes losers
We’ll do anything to win
Anything
Not to be losers

But what about the children?

When you look deep into their eyes
How will you explain all your prevarication and lethal lies?
The way you clamoured for the top
Your shit smeared shoes bending the nose
Of the poor sod beneath you
Your quest for Gold
Desperate to stay ahead of the pace
By any means
To win
Because nobody likes losers
Anything
Not to be a loser

Cause in the end we’re better than that
Better than lazy welfare bums
The petty criminals
The stoopid and the fat
Let them watch television
Surf Facebook and Twitter
There’ll be so much noise
The small people won’t even fight back
As self righteous arbiters
Of moral and financial right
Fleece the nation’s wealth
Hoard it,
Love it,
Drink it,
Smoke it,
Fuck it,

To a billionaire
Cash is not King.

Cash is Crack.

Why keep avarice in check
When consequences become
Inconsequential?
When governments have your back
Ready to print whatever money is necessary
At the expense of the non-voting taxpayers
Underwritten by threats of military attack

Cause we all have to win
Losing is for loser
Better to kill everyone and everything
Than loosen our grip on power
And give the leaches that lick our boots
Even a modicum of dignity
For they are human waste
Good for nothing but to ingest
The lies that we feed them

Fucking losers.

Laugh as they come to realize just how much we don’t care about their puny lives.

We all want to win
We all want to win
We all wnt to win
WE MUST WIN

Winning IS EVERYTHING.

It is the meaning of LIFE.

Until there is nothing left to DESTROY.

Then fulfilled we will DIE

Earth will be cured of its flesh eating disease.
Cosmic heartbeat
Earth swallowed by the Sun.
Then the Sun will EXPLODE

Seeding the stars with the dust of our imagination.

Wed, 06/23/2010 - 12:31 | Link to Comment dcb
dcb's picture

target entry point on s&P for me isabout 1083

Wed, 06/23/2010 - 12:40 | Link to Comment TWORIVER
TWORIVER's picture

Patience may get you in at 1070, ES

Wed, 06/23/2010 - 13:06 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

Hmm, sort of looks as though the bots might be in this afternoon...

Cook a lobster or a frog from cold and they don't realise what's going on...

DavidC

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