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Standard Chartered On The End Of China's "V"
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I think a disappoint from China is quite likely in the next few months. The argument for commodities, in the near term, goes completely out of the window if that happens. The move lower could be savage.
There is no growth in China, the only thing growing is a bubble, a damn vicious one at that. It will burst or has and then China will face years of contraction and increasing poverty. Houses are way overpriced, so are stocks, rising joblessness and the only way they got their crap 8% growth was by blowing money bubbles into the economy. Nothing real there folks just empty and hollow - just like the US economy.
The Greatest Depression is here and now, global fuck up right ahead. Next 6 years should be an epic fail.
Recovery? lol.
I want to believe in China's growth but my instincts don't trust the data coming out of that regime. I wonder if the growth over the past several months did more harm than good by adding to the overcapacity in China.
How can an economy based in large measure on exports be immune when its largest customer, the US, continues to lose jobs at a rapid pace, is seeing credit limits slashed for consumers, fewer credit card issuers, home equity loans falling off a cliff, home prices continuing to fall, incomes remaining flat or dropping, while the savings rate as soared to a high not seen in years?
That's a lot of purchasing power that has gone up in smoke in such a short period of time. Anyone else subscribe to the notion that China's a bubble waiting to pop?
http://contrarianedge.com/2009/08/07/china%e2%80%99s-growth-an-accountin...
"Inflation expectations are not an immediate threat". Well, no, why should such expectations be considered a threat, when the recovery in m/m PPI is an edifice of the pumping of synthetic liquidity into the market by central banks (e.g., commodity speculation) rather than organic demand (observe the plunge in exports).
In such momentarily divorced-from-fundamentals markets, we could see, say, the S&P 500 Index hit a P/E of 45 or so, before the Summer Games come to an end, upon the realization that real wages are decreasing.
Reductio ad absurdum du jour: How phenomenal could the productivity gain numbers become as hours worked per week, and other expenditures associated with labor costs, approach zero?
Can anybody tell me the size, in money, of Chinese domestic consumption. I was told that it's roughly the same as UK domestic consumption? Is that true?
http://bbs.chinadaily.com.cn/viewthread.php?gid=2&tid=644275
Baltic Dry Index down 25% since the end of July .. that says it all right there.
Shanghai SE Composite Index down 4.66% ...
Oil inventories were up today weren't they? Less use of oil means, oh a green shoot... buy oil and oil stocksHis message was being spread and gaining even more support...therefore he needed to be censored.
Until we have guys like Black back as regulators nothing will change. We just
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