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Star Technical Analyst Charles Nenner Calls Market Top
At the Friday close, technical analyst to the hedge fund stars, Charles Nenner, put out his long awaited sell signal on the S&P 500, with the market’s definitive break of the crucial 1,125 support level. From here you sell into the rallies. The SPX is going to plunge 10-20%, Treasury bond interest rates are going to soar (TBT), and gold (GLD) has peaked out. There are tradable shorts setting up in all three of these markets that will run for the first half of 2010.
These calls are the product of Nenner’s proprietary Cycle Analysis System, which he has spent three decades developing, and generates calls of tops and bottoms for every major market in the world. I have diligently analyzed Nenner’s approach for a couple of years now. It appears to consist of multiple overlays’ of traditional technical analysis, some mathematically derived time and momentum indicators, and a dash of Elliot Wave for good measure. The result is reliable enough to make a living, as long as you learn how to read him and don’t bet the ranch (or the windmill?) on any single trade.
Nenner sees a trading rally in the dollar setting up which could deliver a strong greenback until May, when we should then re-establish shorts, especially in his favorite, the Australian dollar (FXA). The scientist turned technical analyst argues that major bull markets in wheat, corn, and soybeans will begin this year, sectors for which I am also hugely bullish long term. He sees natural gas (UNG) retesting the old lows at $2.40. Farther out, Nenner sees a new major bear market beginning in 2013 that will take both stocks and bonds to new lows.
Nenner has a long career that includes stints at medical school, Merrill Lynch, Rabobank, and ten years as a technical analyst at the notorious vampire squid, Goldman Sachs. To learn more about the approach of his firm, the Charles Nenner Research Center in Amsterdam, please visit his site at www.charlesnenner.com.
To hear my in depth, extended interview with Nenner where he outlines all of his views for 2010, please go to my website by clicking here at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.biz/Charles_Nenner.html
For more iconoclastic, out of consensus analysis, visit www.madhedgefundtrader.com, where conventional wisdom is beaten senseless daily.
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nenner nenner nenner !
You guys who are bashing this fellow don't realize that he made the prediction back in December. The interview is posted on the link above seen this article (madhedgefund... charles.html). Nenner is actually a very credible technician.
The only problem, is that the article wasn't published on ZeroHedge until AFTER this 3% drop.
I'm sure the prediction was just as valuable as when he made it back in June.
Oh wait.... maybe not.
Fox take it easy, everyone has the right to an opinion (until the fascist takeover). The truth of course is no one knows where the top or bottom of any market is and it is all guess work regardless of how many algo's you can write to support your hypothesis.
Loves the line that Nenner is "just an academic", who better to pluck everything up just like the current administration. LOL
No worries Gimp, will be fighting the fascist takeover every inch of the way...even with my trusted rifle if needed!
Was just suggesting that to add value you need to motivate.
If you think something is crap...tell us , ok, but you have a moral duty to tell us why...or u wasting valuable band.
And, as i realized investigating...he made the call before, check on the suggested websites.
I see a bunch of utterly stupid comments , particularly on top calling , track records etc etc...
There is NO ONE that can "call" tops or bottoms with uncanny precision, if there was, it would be richer than John Paulson and more secretive than now retired Jim Simons. Technical analysis is what it is, we all know it, someone like it...someone not. About the geniuses that say " Yeah right...call a top after a 5% drop..." I ask , why, you call trends BEFORE they develop ?? Mate, supply us with YOUR track record.
This trend started in March 09 and pushed the market over 50% higher than it was. Now retraced....5%. Noticeable, but not even enough to break the uptrend..only enough to rise an eyebrow, maybe both, and suggest a risk reduction. This, if you trade megatrends ( as i do..). If you trade single stocks daily, u don't need anyone telling u tops or bottoms of bloody indexes...so good on ya.
Baron Rothschild once said " I don't care about the first and last 30% of a trend...give me just that 40% in the middle". That was enough to make him Rothschild..
If you guys feel you can add value commenting, do it and we will all have a nice chat...If you like or not TA ( i don't use it much...but i read it..) give us solid reason why if you feel we should know and discuss.
But if you want to vilify someone work wit motivations like " ah he called a top after a 5% decline"....take your crap somewhere else.
This is still a good blogsite, overall, and will be better free from imbecile comments uttered without a single motivation...moreso from various Anonymous crap carriers.
I think we will be trading in a plus or minus ten percent range from here for a year or so. What could cause a major correction ? Well stupidity, such as not confirming Bernanke (I agree with most of the criticism of him but he needs to stay for market stability.) Stupidity such as doing absolutely nothing about the budget deficit (Please Obama do not blow it in your budget speech next week. Give us some hope that you in Washington finally get it .) Stupidity such as Greece, Italy, Portugal , Ireland and Spain doing nothing to rein in their deficits.
Call me an idiot but I do think the politicians will display skills and compromises none of us ever thought possible. If I am wrong gold will go much higher and we are all in for a mess of trouble.
Just think what a retest of the March lows will do to public pension plans for example. Our politicians better cross the debt Rubicon this year or we are really screwed.
Sight correction there - Ireland is doing something to rein in its deficits , it might not be enough but it is a lot more then any other Euro zone country
Correct, Ireland put in place one of the most impressive and draconian program of cost cutting and fiscal responsibility I saw in modern times.
I would bet that people with such moral stature will make it out of the mud...well done Micks and Paddies.
Ireland has always been creditworthy in terms of paying its sovereign debts but I have to reject the feudalism forced on us by persons unknown which instructed us to pay for private bondholders , I find this unacceptable and morally bankrupt
Sounds about right, but they will not let the correction linger. by April the low will be in and the doelarr will have found that it is still not invited to the ball. somewhere around DJ 9500 will be the bottom, thats all. gold will wade it out in the $1040-$1080 an OZ range, then they will begin going up together (again). The stock market's movement is DICTATED by gold. the low in the markets will not be very low because gold will hold up the financial system. metals are allowing a lot of room to play with.
Anytime that someone wants to report/sell media....but not use the information for self gain....
Does this not "ring a bell" ?
Free speech is a wonderful thing....particularly when you are selling it....
Seems the smartest thing he's done is get paid to write reports for GS. In that respect....well done mate.
Pretty easy to make a call 3yrs out! What about asking what kind of price action would be the most uncomfortable for the most people? Where would prices have to move to prod the fat part of the stock holding curve to take action? Will anyone who took a beating in their accounts sit and watch another leg down? More people will be under duress if we experience a slow grind lower toward last lows of last March. What happens down there will get interesting. I know I know I know....the valuations suggest that....and oh....don't forget that historically the mkt always goes up.
yah, I'm sure that Cycle Analysis System is real reliable with all the market manipulation going on now-a-days.
No I'm not being sarcastic :p
This guy Nenner already called the top back in October when he said "This rally has only a couple of weeks left".
If you acted on that advice, you were immediately wiped out by the November moonshot that ensued.
Good luck with this call.
First gold price increases, then grain...right back through history to ancient Egypt.
History, bitches.
:)
Crazy Dave's News cycle analysis. State of the Union Wed Eve. Market stays pos this week. Barry bashing banks last week was just a sick joke to get someone to buy FAZ on a Fri eve.
I agree, but I don't have any fancy algorithms. Fundemantally nothing has changed since the financial crisis. I prefer what I call 'orthodox' charting, patterns of buying and selling which seem to repeat themselves. Look right now at the chart of the DJIA from June 2006 (when the Dems started to make headway in the midterm elections,and gas prices fell) Now you fast forward to the bottom in 2009 and the same inverted parabola, with pullbacks narrowing, you need to put the chart back on arithmetic just to see narrow this action has become. So can we make new highs?
Sure why not, we have the same crew in place in Washington, there is still not enough pain on Main Street to create serious political roadblocks to the status quo. There are no more jobs to outsource, no more cost cutting measures to boost corporate earnings, there is only money extended through credit which leads to buying, and while the housing bubble was a magic CPI moment, assets up, good, food and energy prices flat to falling, even better, the reverse side of the housing bubble will produce the opposite result, food and energy flat to higher, while asset prices drop.
I like the MOO/COW spread for instance. The MOO is a basket of agribusiness equities, the COW is meat futures, a proxy on market prices. If you were Long MOO and short COW, recently, you did quite well, but now its time to turn that trade over.
The important issue is how far will the market correct, its first real correction in a yearI would be cautious and put on shorts on the rally back, but you don't need a computer program for that.
MACD say's sell bitches!!!
There is STILL only 2 types of bitches in this world
Dollar Bitches or Gold Bitches - take your pick
Everything else is just noise
there are also Bitches Bitches and Chicks with Dick
Stocks BITCHES!
Curious, what's his call on solars:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=csiq,jaso,ldk,sol,solf,stp,tsl,yge
LOL!
good call on CSIQ Lk, however if ya bought this morning I'd take some profits, lol.
"Charles Nenner" News Archive
http://news.google.co.uk/archivesearch?q=%22Charles+Nenner%22&hl=en&ned=...
MHFT, why is it so commonly thought that long term bond yields will go up so sharply when Japan has managed to keep yields so low for so long?
I was hoping for a little more snap in my "predicted" snap back rally.
This guy is a friggin quack
why is this posted on the holy ZH ?
Good question! Between crap like this and tangential political rants from the pacifist "George Washington," there's a huge disparity in quality between Marla and TD's posts and most of their contributors.
Dear Marla and Tyler: Need more quality control in the third-party contributors department. A lot of these posts really only detract from the quality of ZH.
Here's an idea:
Perhaps you could list an average rating for each contributor as a whole (an average of the rankings for all of their articles) along with each article?
+100
Agree strongly with Missing Link. MHFT is often annoying, sometime amusing, but not to be taken seriously. Not even close to the level of ZH's proprietary work.
I know everyone hates CNBC - but i do enjoy Haines and Santelli
I call Haines - the "crumdgeon".
When Nenner was on back in Feb and he called the bottom - (not!)
Haines asked him
"if you are so good - how come you don't own the world?"
Nenner's answer
" i am an academic, i teach at a university."
priceless
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this guy nenner is a joke. I urge you to google him, you will find his calls no different from throwing a dart. and why do our ZH folks continue to print the MHFT gibberish?
"From hear you sell into the rallies."
Grammar check, please.
Yahhhh, I'm sick of "gurus". They lose shitloads of money for people over a 6 month period of being wrong and then claim their fame 10 years later for calling "the exact moment" of the top.
Seriously, giving me a reach around isn't exactly what I'd call expert handling.
What is the old saying - judge a man not by his words but by his actions.
I am making a call after 40 + years on the planet - market will go up, down and sideways...honestly.
July 13 breakout area , ( SPY $87.59 )
Sticks out like a sore thumb, that is where you could expect a natural retracement in a BULL market to go. Maybe this market is super natural and it is different this time....otherwise that is a good target area.
TSL and CSIQ look like $16 or so.
while I agree with Nenner's call ... his methodology is terrible.
recall his CNBC appearance last year; in january i believe. i'll spare finding it n quoting his horrid call. he came off terribly, made an asininely putrid call, was horrifically wrong and made no comments as per risk mgmt. true chartist crap.
Was he the one who said gold will drop to 600 when it was around 1000?? No wait, that was ALL of them! Bunch of morons, DISREGARD
please also note how his web site has his name - real indication that this person is simply looking for name recognition. 10-20% plunge? It already "plunged" 5% so another couple of hundred points and we reach a bottom for another tradable rally. I could make that call and i did not work in investment research a single day...
So why is the "Charles Nenner Research Center" (aka his 1-bedroom apartment) located in Amsterdam? Better low-cost weed?
He also called for a dip (again) to 666 or below before heading up when the market started rallying in MArch 09. Still waiting!!!!
This is crap. Pure crap.
This is a joke. Its gotta be a joke. The mad hedge fund trader? Lol. Someone's having us on.
Spent 3 decades in investment research and I've never heard of him...
Sounds like he should keep working on it.
Anytime someone quotes "years of exp" rather than "performance"... do you really want to listen to them?
Whether he's right or wrong what I find hard to believe is that you claim to have "Spent 3 decades in investment research and I've never heard of him...". What were you researching?
Whoopie. This guy comes out and calls a top after a 3 day-500 point drop. A retard could call that top. A 10 to 20 % S+P drop. That's the weakest call I've ever heard. This fucker will drop at least 50%, probably more like 80%.
Actually, this interview was recorded on December 12, and he said the top would be around the end of the first week in January. The host mentioned 10-20%, and Nenner said it could go much further.