Step Aside Egypt CDS.... Here Come The Saudi Contagion Vigilantes

Tyler Durden's picture

By now everyone knows that over the past few days, Egypt CDS has taken a hard right angle and has doubled from 200 bps to well over 400 bps (making it just slightly riskier than Illinois). And tomorrow Egypt risk will add another 80 or so basis points. No surprise there. What may surprise some, however, is that just like Egypt, Saudi CDS has also gone vertical. And with momentum chasers finally realizing that there is a direction other than tighter, expect the contagion vigilantes to do some serious damage here. If history is any precedent, there is a long way to go.


And Saudi Arabia

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max2205's picture

Market popcorn fart so far in night trade

rubearish10's picture

We must wait for ME Dawn. Going to bed early and up at 2am.

bankonzhongguo's picture

A thousand pardons for off topic, but did anyone see this UFO thing over the Dome of the Rock two days ago.

Just something for those Jesus/Mohammad freak day traders.

bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

Nope.  Sorry, I was too busy eating my soylent green taco from taco bell.

bruinjoe93's picture

You add nothing to the discussion.

Seasmoke's picture

sure looks like its September 2008 all over again (maybe even worse !)

IrrationalMan's picture

that opening in es was interesting.  10 point drop, but looks like ppt was working overtime as we are now seeing the usual 1 point surge followed no volume as it creeps higher. 

HarryWanger's picture

Markets will open lower then straight up from there. Egypt will drag on and investors will see as another Greece/Iran/etc. episode and it will be quickly forgotten buy lunchtime. Just the way it works these days. Futures don't seem to care.

Sophist Economicus's picture

Agreed.   All this nonsense about specs ramping up oil prices and grain commodities, ramming up the dollar and ignoring a historically overvalued market should be ignored.   Buy futures and sell volatility is the name of the game.   Everyone knows that hunches and following the herd is the key to riches...

Ferg .'s picture

It appears that futures indeed do not care . Took a little plunge for about 30 minutes after the open last night and we've been melting up ever since . Drop has been erased and gains are being made . However , looking at the charts all this appears to be quite similar to the April/May top last year .

Eric Cartman's picture

Middle East contagion bitchez!

Yen Cross's picture

Speaking of Credit Default Swaps. The Bund vs Spain, Portugal,Ireland, greece. The spreads going into Europe?

YHC-FTSE's picture

What did you expect? I guess the Saudis also read the article about them on ZH yesterday.

topcallingtroll's picture

You are probably right this thing has a ways to go but as you rigjtly pointed out some of the extremes when greek soveriegn cds spreads blew out it was a great opportunity to scoop some up for a quick 20 percent return for the nimble and the brave. Does anyone.seriously think saudi cant pay their bills? The saudis wont pussyfoot around if they are seriously threatened. They will shoot to kill and chase down any protest leaders and execute them. The saudi monarchy doesnt play games. They will tolerate some limited peaceful assembly but nothing more.

Yen Cross's picture

 The saudis hold a lot of usd treasuries and like to rinse the the oil revenue every night when the ACB (Asian Central Banks)  wash their dollars.

buzzsaw99's picture

That's a screaming buy. There is zero chance of revolution in the KSA.

Zeilschip's picture

CDS on Saudi-Arabia don't trade on a bonds & loans basis, and there are no bonds Saudi-Arabia can default on that would trigger the CDS, so at one point (I'd say when it trades close to 200 bps) traders will start selling the CDS.

Caviar Emptor's picture

Prince Alwaleed hosting free American-style barbecue for Saudi natives :)

Yen Cross's picture

Blowtorched? I have usd/jpy within 5-10 pips on every chart. Relative to the Friday close. The JPY news is good. But yen never moves on news anyways. Plus I think good JPY news is positive for USD. Even though a risk off trade is USD negative technically vs YEN.

ExploitTheMarket's picture

Gold is red, Crude futures trending lower after junping to about 91...ES now flashing green (at least for the moment).

Is there disappointment the revolution has not (yet) spread to the rest of the middle east?

asteroids's picture

If I were the FED I would be nervous. Get the FED before the FED gets you.

HoofHearted's picture

My blowtorch just got blowtorched. I should have seen that shit coming.

Thinking Bulldog's picture

Okay, so Blowtorched is bad.  Is that better or worse than Monkeyhammered? It's hard to keep up with the ZH acronyms and colloquialisms, but I will fight to the death...

StychoKiller's picture

How about "nukin' the fridge", does that do it for ya? :>D

Yen Cross's picture

B carefull with Issems.They bite back!

Caviar Emptor's picture


Youth unemployment:49%,  38%, 35%,  33%, Tun 26%. Staggering? Try: Europe: 30-50%, USA: 25-50%.

Devout Republican's picture

100% for 1 armed 3 eyed Asians with Spanish accents from Belgium.

Crab Cake's picture

The pr war for the status quo by TPTB has now officially been lost. Business as usual won't do anymore, and the status quo is eroding at an ever increasing rate. The dice are now rolling, and the prelude is over.

Yen Cross's picture

Saudi Arabia (soverign) are huge EURO holders as well.Every time the fed monitizes debt it heats overseas markets. Why? Cheap labor, and tax repatriation from corporate revenue. Roughly 50% of Major corporate revenue come from overseas markets. There is no reason to strenghen the USD. It's akin to the Japanese exporters buying yen from 85 down. No reason to create jobs or build domestic business. As a Republican, and a person that cares deeply about my country. I'm working on that.

Brokenarrow's picture

By the close tomorrow the es will be green and all this will be just another little road bump.

buzzsaw99's picture

The JPM-fed conspiracy will make everything green before lunch.

Yen Cross's picture

If a conspiracy existed? With Japan. JGP @ MoF would be in cohorts with KAMPO (aka The postal system) That must explain all those smart Women in Japan.

dearth vader's picture

Green is the color of my truelove's screen, in the morning
In the morning, when we rise...

rubearish10's picture

Already green son. Things are cool in ME.

dick cheneys ghost's picture

tyler, please give this story some coverage. protests are here!!

25 protesters arrested in california

ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

Did someone say Ireland? 


"The (National Bank of Egypt ) investment portfolio is well diversified by country, with the largest

exposures at end?June 2010 being the UK (34%), Australia  (15%), the US (7%) and

Ireland (7%)...Egyptian institutional investors, accounted for 78% 

of non?equity funding"


TooBearish's picture

Sell em! its country specific......

Brokenarrow's picture

8pm est--es green!

shorts will get smoked by tomorrow.

sp 1400 by mar. 31--


roymunnson's picture

Saudi owns 323 tons of gold which Comex cannot find...the final chapter of the Islamic revoltion will take care of MANY issues!!!!!

max2205's picture

Gut feel on oil for Monday. - 5% plus

HarryWanger's picture

Oil, gold will get killed tomorrow. Equities will start slow and make strong gains as the day progresses.

Saxxon's picture

Yes.  That U.N. guy is going to get installed.  Gold may be a buy on the slam, however.

chump666's picture

that brent/wti divergence has got to narrow.  the middle east could sink into a sh*tstorm, may keep oil bid and gold.

china just came out mins ago and send that the US won't be doing a QE3?  Why, China will smoke the US with a big UST dump. They don't want exported inflation and the middle east is the wake up call.


colonial's picture

is it possible to short brutal dictatorships with no respect for human rights and no system to peacefully transfer power? 

Where are all those global macro boyz now?  Did anyone at Davos see this coming?  Probably not.