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Step Aside Roubini - FX Concepts' John Taylor Is The New Dr. Doom: "2011 Will Be Worse Than 2008"
John Taylor, CIO of FX-Concepts, the world's biggest FX fund, is now officially the new Dr. Doom. We we gladly pay $29.95 to watch him live on a CNBC octobox that features him, Liesman, Cramer, Pisani, Burnett, A. Joseph Cohen, David Bianco and the guy who said AIG was going to $1,000, with occasional eye-rolling from the Fast Money brigade.
We’re Still Dancing – Round II
By John R. Taylor, Jr.
Chief Investment Officer
US employment numbers turned up last month with the help of some temporary $20 per hour jobs in the decennial census, at the same time retail sales jumped 1.6%, way outpacing any plausible rise in personal income. “Hooray!” cried the markets, the US consumer is alive and spending again. American trade figures deteriorated sharply as well, even though the oil import bill was down, as other imports grew rapidly while exports languished, making it very clear that the US had reclaimed its old position as the world’s consumer of last resort. The US recovery is now looking more like one of the standard post-World War II exercises with a distinct resemblance to the two “jobless” ones that started in 1992 and 2002. As a result of the very low interest rates, non-existent inflation, and rather weak dollar, the economy is in a sweet spot, a Goldilocks situation for corporations and wealthy families. Unfortunately this positive spell does not cover a significant portion of the country’s economic actors. The losers are the middle and lower-middle classes as well as the state and local governments and those who depend on them for jobs or their largesse. They are the first to lose as a result of the shrinking availability of debt financing – the de-leveraging of America. This economic recovery is different because these groups are already struggling even though liquidity is super-plentiful and riskfree rates are near zero. They are too leveraged to borrow more. Usually those who are going to be the victims don’t begin getting into trouble until Fed tightening starts, but this time they are in bad shape already.
The global risk markets are taking advantage of this excess liquidity and the Goldilocks situation. As the market players, whether in corporate or individual form, are among the blessed, they can and are rebuilding their leverage and playing the game. It’s like 2008 never happened, just a one in a thousand perfect wave, and the market participants have forgotten, just like they did in 1998 and 2003. As there is incredible liquidity available, those who can get their hands on it will use it. The authorities who saved the economy from destruction in 2008 are either busy patting themselves on the back or fighting for their own national interest. The Eurozone countries are blaming the ‘Anglo-Saxon’ hedge funds and free market philosophy, while, in many cases, the US authorities are in the forefront of the ‘perfect storm’ crowd – just a nip or a tuck here or there and everything will be fine. China has its own view of things and the other Asians are acting as though they were on a different planet – “what happens in Europe and North America stays there and has no impact on us.” This serious reluctance to replace parochial issues with a genuine desire to restructure world finance assures us that the next crisis will be far worse than the one in 2008. Although it seemed that the world was terrified by that collapse, it is now clear that the authorities and the players were not so bothered that they changed their stripes. The cycles and very simple fundamentals are enough to predict that 2011 will be worse than 2008. The medium-term cycles tell us that there is a very high probability of a serious bout of risk aversion beginning in the next five trading days and continuing into the week of May 3. This is likely to be most apparent in Europe, but it should also impact the equity and commodity markets around the world. The stream of strong economic and corporate news, plus continued benign inflation outside of Asia should assure us of a further risk rally, starting in May and running through July and possibly into early August. This decline after the August peak should be far more serious and we believe it will be the start of a major market rout continuing into the middle of 2011, at a minimum. The deflationary recession that will accompany this market collapse, at least in the developed world, will put extreme pressure on the Eurozone and the EMU structure. The second half of this decade will witness a very different world.
ht/ Teddy KGB
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Spot on if you ask me. But then my 2012 puts go in the money so I am biased. But into August? That's a stretch for my technical side. Whatever.
I'm playing that time frame as well although my alternative for the next collapse has been right after the 2010 mid-terms to give the administration enough time to set the football up again for Charlie Brown by 2012.
Was experimenting with posting pictures, didn't work, proceed along.
Fascinating! Thanks 4 sharing.
Only authorized contributors can post photos and movies.
That's a very short list, usually Robo and Leo.
Not to mention, Head Banger, who wins the Anony Award for best, bloodiest Avatar that most eloquently expresses the outrage most here have for the Vampire Squid and their ilk.
Anybody who's seen the Mortgage Rate Reset charts from Credit Suisse knows this.
http://technologyinvestment.info/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/mortgage-res...
The newer charts show that the foreclosure moratoriums have pushed the Mortgage Rests into 2012.
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/images/uploads/01%20Post%20Images%20201...
Thanks for the updated chart, I've been wondering about that.
Again, though, I wonder how resets are supposed to matter here in Deadbeat Nation anyway. The deadbeats lied about their income and now do not pay their mortgages. The government lets them, because they help prop consumption. The banks lie about the value of these deadbeat mortgages. Again, the government lets them, because if they admitted their bankruptcy we'd have the biggest and last bank run ever. Meanwhile the government floats ever-larger barrages of debt that will never be paid back. The Fed lets it (and perhaps covertly monetizes the debt) because if we admitted that the government is bankrupt it would be Mad Max time. So who cares what rates are? Who cares what prices are when the market is just a giant fantasyland anyway?
While I am honored to think that it would be "my time," realistically I think that there are many, many more steps in collapse between an admission of systemic insolvency and an apocalyptic breakdown of society. There are many ways that the financial system could collapse but the nation could remain basically civilized, albeit in different form. It doesn't even follow that we would be poorer, since if you think about it rationally, we are already that poor, it just hasn't been recognized yet.
Of course, if the elites continue extend and pretend to the bitter end (which seems likely) and use outrageous lies and misdirected anger when they are caught (almost certain), then it is entirely possible we could have our own little Argentina/Zimbabwe/Bosnia/Somalia. Except it wouldn't be little, and we make all those countries look like disarmed homogenous nations.
I mean no disrespect to the guns & ammo crowd here, many of whom seem to anticipate a new era of individual liberty wherein well-armed and well-supplied survivors defend their freeholds, work the land, and occcasionally venture to the general store to trade crops or silver for a sack of flour. (I have been guilty of taking your screen name in vain describing this scenario, but perhaps a better term would be "post-Kunstlerian.")
But this seems unlikely to me even in the event of "total social breakdown," unless most of the US population conveniently disappears. Otherwise a nation of 300 million will more probably re-form into a feudal or warlord system with the remnants of civil goverment keeping a degree of order, enforced by an amalgam of previous military and police forces. (And no, most of these will not change sides and join what they will see as undisciplined rabble.)
There is still another alternative: instead of breakdown, an orderly "step-down" where the basic structure of society survives but on a manageble scale, where our lifestyles and expectations adjust to what real wealth remains -- in terms of actual goods and services provided by real people. In this case we would still need some government at local, state, and national levels, still need sufficient law and enforcement to allow honest work and trade to prosper (not something that can be counted on in a state of anarchy). We would even need banks and a rudimentary banking system because barter simply does not work beyond a village level. We would not, however, need a finance industry. This fact presents a danger because those privileged classes have a long reach in today's reality and will not go quietly.
Just one more thing before I close this rambling screed: anyone looking for lessons from recent history might look at Russia, from the Soviet collapse to today's pragmatic, authoritarian, non-idealogical state. Not a close parallel (or an attractive option) but still an instructive example of how a modern state can transform drastically with much waste and suffering, while still avoiding chaotic breakdown.
So the 100Mil moochers will just sit down and say , "Well, ok. Parties over. We'll just go ahead and starve to death since the Goobermint is'nt here to feed us." Don't think so/ Human nature is never quite so practical.
I think you are correct, I tried to argue the same point with some Ron Paul people, they told me it would be OK because he would take away the food stamps and public housing gradually.
There would be riots that would make Detriot '67 look like playtime.
moochers = zombies
The difference between the United States and Russia is that the Russians have never known anything but authoritarian rule and are far more apt to cling to the virtue of the "state," as opposed to individual liberties. It is what they are comfortable with.
Americans, on the other hand, are used to a much freer society based on fundamental personal ethics (which we have obviously strayed far from...). The example you cite, therefore, would lead one to the conclusion that Americans will also re-discover what they are comfortable with: Life, Liberty and the Pusuit of Happiness.
I tried to emphasize that I was not drawing parallels between the US and Russia, just presenting an example of how a modern state can experience drastic structural change without going through a "systemic social breakdown" that necessitates rebuilding a society from scratch. The point was not that the same things would happen here, only that an equivalent degree of change could occur under extreme stress.
I sincerely wish I could be more confident in your conclusion. But even a local-level social breakdown could result in threats to the personal safety of the average law-abiding American much greater (in terms of probability) than any presented by distant terror organizations, yet there seems to be no limit to what today's populace is willing to sacrifice to be protected from the latter. What wouldn't we give up at the prospect of lawless gangs rampaging through our tranquil suburban neighborhoods?
Oh, I agree with your assessment one hundred percent. "Society," as we know it, will not disintegrate into some hardy farce of Mad Max, complete with ThunderDome. Instead, what we present to the world will be protective of those things that really matter to us, namely family and community. That feeling is universal and is not in any way drawing parallels between the US and Russia.
My point was that the easiest path back to where you came from is through the way you have been. I would bet that eight out of ten Americans would say to take us back to where we were and fix things going forward. If that is the case, then a societal comparison is valid in light of a post-fallout scenario.
In that way, another difference between Americans and Russians is a matter of trust. Americans have learned to inherently trust their neighbors, while Eastern Europeans have learned the opposite: that your neighbor can sell your secrets for state protection. Americans inherently distrust the government (as stated so forthrightly iin the Constitution...) and would be much more reluctant to sell their neighbors down the river.
That is not to say that Americans are saints. Far from it. But it would take a lot longer and require more than innuendo for the government to break the will of the masses in general here than it would be to break it there. They have already been there and remember it all too well.
Heinous massacres and pillage would do it, though, which would require that local police and National Guard buy into the "new regime" line and, blinded by lust for power, shoot their sisters.
I just don't see it happening.
Remember Kent State?
I am not talking about killing "just" four people...
But, since you brought it up, you help me prove my points about Americans and how far they would be willing to go for power.
They wouldn't get very far. Four people killed and it is on the nightly news. That would be about it. Lay down your arms. Game over.
As an outsider looking in, I believe the U.S. culturally tends less toward internal societal collapse than most other places. Yes, there are lots of people barricaded in the hills, defending their rights. And outwardly it is probably one of the most war-driven nations on earth. But if you look back at major collapses, most recently the 1930s depression, society pulled together more than it pulled apart. It was the time of "The Waltons!" It was also a time when art, culture, music, entertainment, architecture, etc. all took major leaps forward. There were several depressions before the 1930s but the results were similar - a domestic retrenching and regrounding.
Europe on the other hand has had almost tribal relations between countries and ethnic communities and tends to quickly move to domestic violence and war with itself when financial issues arise.
If you are expecting a systemic collapse and are fearful of it, just look back at some of the past collapses to see what the results were. Europe self-destructed financially in the early 1930s with most countries defaulting on debts. England lost its role as the global empire of the day. That crown passed to the U.S. who went into depression with everyone else. However during that depression, 75% of people were employed. Following that, and another war in Europe, everyone boomed again for a very long time.
snowdude, great analysis. americans (well maybe besides some kooks) identify more along the lines of ideas then ethnic tribes. i lived in europe for a time and was shocked at all the diff. types of prejudices among people, and they were not shy of sharing them! catalans burning spanish flags, northern italians despising southerners, everyone hating the french. point is, in europe there are often different ethnic regions within a nation state that have different languages, histories and resentments. Here in the US, we have no shortage of racism, regionalism, social stratification, but we are basically one big happy family compared to europe. I urge everyone to keep an eye on the european situation in the face of defaults and economic stress; strikes, riots, and severe unrest is on the way. (esp southern europe)
A lot of things have changed since the 1930's. For instance we have a much larger urban/suburban population and not so many "Walton" families. Back in those days many families canned there own produce and cured there own meats and were able to survive periods of food shortages. The food distribution system is very different now then it was then, just a few days interruption of the trucking industry and people will start missing meals and then things really get hairy. I would not want to be in the way of those hundreds of thousands of hungry people as they stream out of the big cities looking for food. If you think Katrina was bad just wait for a week of no food trucks.
abso-freaking-lutely spot on. People here are forgetting the EXTREME entitlement mentality that exists in our society today. If you think money makes people behave badly, just watch happens when they can't feed their children. They start seeing the proverbial "Turkey Drumstick Bubble" over your head. So if you think being preparednoid is overkill, well.. I'd rather have backup then be stuck with the zombies.
Great points guys. Please also consider during the depression of the 1930's:
The government was still under the international gold standard, so our currency was mostly sound.
Also, there was ZERO credit card debt. We were a nation of savers.
A very small underclass dependent on charity or welfare.
Shorter supply chains. Most food people ate what was grown within 100 miles of where they lived.
The unemployed were willing to take low-paying jobs requiring hard physical labor.
Most everybody lived very close to where they worked.
There's no way we would make it through a similar event with a government that sees itself as having no limits on it's power to borrow and spend.
All good points, Orly. Thanks for a spirited discussion. I don't think we disagree really.
"I would bet that eight out of ten Americans would say to take us back to where we were. . ."
To a time before television?
What kind of era was that? Nobody under the age of 50 has any idea. So how do you go back to a place few remember?
The USSR had huge range of assets owned by the state that were then moved into rpivate hands and this spurred demand, markets, employment etc. What assets does the US hold? AIG? The Washington Monument?
a whole bunch of secret patents no one knows about?
pretty nice rambling screed...spot on imo
Yeah, just one thing about Russia...............they have a Dictator.
I vote for just to the right of TRUE Anarchy, Libertarianism.
No harm,no foul. You HARM someone, you GET harmed.
No damages, no issues..............life is simple.
Since a picture = 1,000 words and a good video = 10,000, I will try to save some space:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHcajIRcBvA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bEG2AMaM7w&feature=fvw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVB9qARy06E&feature=related
Not a whole lot of time to wake up, take the red pill ASAP.
Thanks for the videos. They are the answer to those that say it can't happen here: it can, and it has. What would it take for it to happen again, and in a dozen cities, rather than one?
Not much. The thin veneer of civility has been exposed on many occasions. Rage builds slowly, and the collective "WTF" seems to be spontaneous in urban areas. With high unemployment and declining benefits, we will see a tipping point soon. I think a dozen cities is optimistic, I see 30+ metro areas going FUBAR over the course of a week.
indeed, the slow creep FUBAR may return as well. I live in a part of manhattan that was a free fire drug war until the mid 90's. Thanks to giuliani and .com, it gentrified and now the worst that happens is a car gets keyed once in awhile. Everything is still fine in my hood, but NYPD is smaller then it has been for decades, crime is up and no money for to hire more cops. Things don't have to go FUBAR in a week, neglect things for a few years and the slow decline back to fort apache, the bronx....
also see:
April 16, 2010, 11:30 am
Budget Ax Falls in Vance’s Office By JOHN ELIGONWith the Manhattan district attorney’s office facing a 25 percent budget cut from the city this year, Cyrus R. Vance Jr., the office’s newly elected chief, is cutting a handful of staff members.
Although Mr. Vance asked for the resignations of fewer than 10 assistant district attorneys — roughly 2 percent of the lawyers in the office — the move sent shock waves through the halls of One Hogan Place, because those affected were office veterans, according to several prosecutors.
“It’s been very unsettling, I think, for a lot of people because it hasn’t been part of the culture here that people would get fired,” said one prosecutor, who, like others quoted in this article, requested anonymity because they did not want to get in trouble with their bosses.
Clear message .. ditch communities with those who feel disenfranchised
Consider Argentina. In 1914, it was one of the wealthiest countries in the world, and its living standard exceeded that of Western Europe until the late 1950s. Then President Juan Peron squandered his nation's prosperity by introducing a host of redistributionist economic and regulatory policies, nationalizing utilities and foreign investments, and pumping up the national debt. What followed was three decades of political instability, growing dependency, and economic stagnation.
There was a brief period of privatization and booming foreign investment in what the American Enterprise Institute's Mark Falcoff called Argentina's "go go" 1990s. But that was negated by the return of political leaders espousing Peronist principles who created a downward economic spiral by breaking contracts with foreign utility companies that had invested heavily in Argentina. Today, the country has lost its international credit standing and an estimated 10 percent of the population has moved abroad to escape the stifling taxes, regulation and inefficiency.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rH6_i8zuffs - Argentina's Economic collapse
Thank you for this insight ... I hope we can avoid this fate
The late 1950s? You mean when there started to be that huge injection of wealth from fallen colonial empires into Europe and the US? I wonder how Argentina could have competed with that...
Great post! You hit some solid points. We are indeed already poor. I always chuckle when people refer to the U.S. as the "The Richest Country in the World". Give me a fucking break! It's such an absurd proposition.
We are simply loaded with exponentially growing debts that can't possibly be repaid OR inflated away. We are BEYOND poor. It is indeed a game of mass delusion rather than acceptance of how absurd trying to sustain this broken system really is. The assholes in charge of this have brought us here, so how can any sane person expect these clowns to get us out of it? It's LUDICROUS!
This stupid PONZI game is OVER! Much of it is already structurally damaged and many people at the top of the heap are starting to break ranks.
Anyone with a shred of intelligence KNOWS this isn't sustainable and has known it for a long time. Lets just stop pretending and figure out what's next - this time without war and pestilence being spread.
While I agree it doesn't have to devolve into mass chaos, it likely will get quite ugly before any calm returns, just knowing the nature of people. Rather than look in the mirror and see our own fault in being where we all are as a society, it's easier to point the finger at someone else. Not to say I don't pin a VERY LARGE portion of the blame on a small group of people. I absolutely do. However, the longer we as a society put it off, the more dramatic and painful the needed "RESET" will be. If we don't quite this nonsense right here and now, there will be no future and "Mad Max" will be the way of the world for a long long time. This may not even be a bad thing, we just don't know yet, but pretending what is going on still works is preposterous and downright criminal.
LETS STOP IT!
When I was a kid, the world only had 1 Billionaire (Howard Hughes). Hopefully, when I die, there will only be 1 (or none) again......
Bingo.
Well said.
Systemic failure is a design feature of the credit-money system. Exponential math dictates that compounding principle+debt always outruns loan service capacity. It doesn't matter what the underlying property & productive assets pledged as collateral are: individuals (mortgages->jobs), companies (capital->products+services), or nations (sovereign debt->taxpayers).
It was always going to fail - the only open questions are:
Personally, I tend to lean towards premeditated, intentional acts. The GS mini-drama so widely discussed doesn't seem like a true, fundamental factor. However, fundamentals may come into play as a by-product of political action taken in an (futile) attempt to reduce pressure.
That being said, at some point we must turn our attention to what happens afterward ie true reform. Whether they want to or not, our children must become the vanguard of the (youth) revolution. Repudiating the debt, terminating the Fed, and implementing a new monetary/taxation system are going to be huge tasks.
+1
Huge tasks only if lawyers are involved.
"transfer of private debts to sovereigns intentional".
I like your recognition of this.
"Repudiating the debt, terminating the Fed, and implementing a new monetary/taxation system are going to be huge tasks."
This will never happen. Ever.
Let's not leave another problem in the laps of our kids. We've shit in their lunch box one too many times.
Hi B9K9... always like your posts. I'd beg to differ on a few things:
The problem is international in scope. As the Bank for International Settlements has recently confirmed, all seven of the G7 are technically insolvent, and I'm sure that if you peeled back the covers in the various countries you'd find similar levels of corruption/collusion between government and banking/business going on. Since all of the major central banks hold each other's debt and currencies, they are entangled in this mess together.
Panicked policymaking (and it's unintended consequences) as well as corruption are both symptoms of the of a financial system that is in the later stages of entropy. As such, this is not an orderly process, but it is interrelated. Some who are positioned properly can take advantage of the situation; the rest are lucky if they can hedge themselves well enough to be out of harm's way as the cards fall.
Barring some miracle, the result of this breakdown will be a new world order, with the US playing a significantly reduced role. While I agree that Americans have core values that will help us pull through as a people and a country, I'm pretty sure that we'll be playing a diminished role on the world stage when this is over, at least for a while.
My biggest concern about this whole process from a US perspective is the possible effect of any hostility (war, terrorism or mass uprising as a result of social unrest) that would cripple US infrastructure in such a way that it would impede our ability to recover quickly. While I'm cautiously optimistic we can keep in balance during the transition, we'll have to see.
With all the delays the elevated foreclosure rate will not start to let up until about 2014 meaning the housing market is guaranteed to be in the dumps until at least 2016 or so...
will be far worse than the one in 2008. Although it seemed that the world was terrified by that collapse, it is now clear that the authorities and the players were not so bothered that they changed their stripes
Boy this guy is good. spot on... and unlike that media whore Roubini, this guys no academic.
Heh no need to be bothered by something you engineer yourself.
He's right though. We're farther from reality than in 2005-2006. When the next bust comes, 2008 will look like the good old days and 2009 will seem as halcyon as the late 90s.
Hi Hulk and friends from Italy!
Well it's great to be on vacation and everything (dinnertime approaches), but I do miss being mere feet from my gold & guns.
NOW, it is truly like watching a train wreck in a movie or something. Except now I have the ash-cloud to wrry about getting home.
Fun reading: Patriots by J. W. Rawles. Completely survivalist reading.
Ahh, well. Ciao mi amici!
Pick up "One Second After" nice population reduction timeline.
He's a tad late to the party..Gerald Celente has made this call long ago.
I think I am ready for this. Not sure though; my kid and her kid have no knowledge of what is coming. They are young. I am loaded up on gold, silver and oil. I am stashing 100's but what good is it if they change the currency? I am filling my gardens up on composted cow manure and bought some chickens and a couple of roosters. Do I really have heirloom seeds? Or am I screwed by Monsanto? I think I am going nuts, it cannot get this bad, can it? Are we as a society looking down at our ipads, cell phones, and belly buttons hoping the whole thing will go by without taking us with it? Am I doomed to driving a 1985 Chevy truck for another 10 years?
Are all my future dates made out of paper and bound in the next Playboy magazine?
Don't worry about Monsanto. It can and will get bad . As long as the truck runs good, who cares?Get armed and get trained. Get community. Then you will have non paper dates!
Thanks for the encouragement Hulk.
Here's a nice old truck and a nice old song
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTSJAUul7I8&feature=related
That was good.
It'll only suck if you're alone. You're not. I'm in the same boat (minus the poultry).
Roosters are a pain in the butt, you need them. For some reason the owls know the difference between roosters and chickens.
Chickens are worth their weight in entertainment value alone.
Its no accident that yesteryears cartoons had a lot of chickens in them
I left with the dolphins.
And thanks for all the fish.
:)
+1
You are fortunate indeed to have escaped the Vogon constructor fleets.
You are far ahead of the rest of us. You've got the eggs, well done. Woody Allen couldn't have said it better at the end of Annie Hall.
As far as the currency goes..it's a hit or miss, but you seem really well prepared in the event of a real calamity. I personally think you are fine in terms of currency for at least 2 years, and maybe forever. None of us can predict a global fiat fiasco and its implications. Perhaps it will all remain the same on that level. Perhaps not.
You can always convert it to another--the closest being Canada with a housing bubble but not much debt and lots of resources. At the same time, and the reason it's a hit or miss, is that Canada is just as screwed in a global downturn. And I just am not in the Zimbawe camp--kinda Japanese, if you will. The Yen is still there 20 years after the collapse.
Fuck Monsanto. Buy some other seeds if their crap scares you. But as far as I can tell...you have a great sense of humor, you are doing what your heart tells you, and the rest is not up to you or any of us here. And your truck may be 25 years old, but if you are as smart about mechanics as you are about the rest of being prepared, sleep well.
Woody Allen couldn't have said it better at the end of Annie Hall.
You mean the line, "You always think you're going to be the one to change them." or another line?
Wait! I remember now. The egg joke. . .
"Doc, uh, my brother's crazy; he thinks he's a chicken." And the doctor says, "Well, why don't you turn him in?" The guy says, "I would, but I need the eggs."
Why the junk flag?
never would I have thought that I would meet a bunch of fellow survivalists on , of all places, Zerohedge... this is creeping me out. Last week, I heard two older gentlemen asking each other why the younger generation hasn't pushed the bankers out of the window already; and with all the guns [we're] buying, bum-rushed D.C. ... I live in NY..so to hear that is not common. Needless to say, I put a few extra cans of soup and pasta in my cart. lol.
Hey yo, Dog. Publix can produce eggs cheaper than you. Yeah right when shf krogers will close but mad max will take your chickens. With respect to you how can it be your kid and her kid are oblivious but your stashing american money?
I've got my own chickens, I don't need to take anyone else's.
Many good-to-have items are ridiculously cheap and readily available right now. Someone could have a lot of useful things, which would all fit in a closet and are all legal in even the worst nanny states of the US, for only a couple hundred bucks.
Mad Max,
I'd love to see your list if you have any time.
http://www.survivalseedbank.com/
Here ya go boss !
All the best
Please, give me a break. Just go down to the local garden center and buy whatever seeds/sprouts that you wish.
The Monsanto thing only applies to soy, cotton, corn, and grain sorghum.
Corn has issues with being a hybrid anyway, Monsanto or not. Just get your garden going and have a bad dog...oh and a gun...and bullets.
Good luck.
Wow, Jd. I hope you are a cool and sophisticated kind of cat because I have exactly the same worries. However, I have a 94 ford P/U and I can't afford Playboy.
P.S The ignorant snobs won't allow farm animals in yet. I have to relay on powdered eggs. I'll LOL when the crash hits.
Dragged by the leash, screaming and kicking into the new reality. Patrol JD. Patrol.
You may want to get several of these, and don't forget the hand pump and a backup.
http://www.rotten.com/library/sex/masturbation/inventions/sex-dolls/
anecdotal: The Home Depot I visit on occasion in SWFL this year compared to last parking lot is full on a Tuesday AM vs almost empty the year before. Up North the new local big box center is now fully leased out and it was 15 minutes today (seriously) just trying to find a parking spot near Best Buy.
The consumer IMO will spend whatever cash or credit they can get access to.
The money being spent is the money that should be spent on their underwater mortgage payment.
They have decided not to pay this bill, but to spend it elsewhere.
Like the rest of the US economy, this is not sustainable.
Is that a vagina?
is that a vagina.....
haha.
<serious face> no.
hahaha!
That is the downfall of Elliot Spitzer.
That's a test image to see if you need anatomy and terminology lessons. Apparently you do.
One upped by the vag...
That is right.
The economy can keep humming along OR mortgage debt can be serviced - but not both.
Forget about higher Taxes on anyone struggling to pay debts w/ current income levels. The Math doesn't work.
It is sustainable so long as the banks are allowed to pretend asset values remain close to 2005 levels. I'm starting to see lots of "reverse mortgage" commercial on TV.
Like this??
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/04/05/for-consumers-time-to-shop-until-the-mortgage-drops/
And guess who's footing yet another FU>
Great link ... thanks
Great link ... thanks
CogDis is better at this than me, but I see two things at work here:
First is, as already noted, cash freed up by not paying the mortgage.
The second thing is that consumers looked into the abyss and did not like what they saw. In 2008 there was a feeling that, "maybe I should begin to act responsibly, plan for the future, tone down my interest in things material, stop trying to compete with the Jones', and find joy and comfort in simple pleasures and good relationships".
After thinking about it a bit, most people seem to have decided, "Naw, that's too boring".
So we are hellbent again on a path to overconsumption through eating all of our savings and maxing out what credit we have left.
We will reach a limit again, savings gone and credit max'd. Maybe that is the Guns of August Mr. Taylor sees.
iPad anyone?
I'll be closing on my rural 5 acres next week. Cabin should be build by July. Gonna be doing a put/call strategy on some REITs - maybe VNO. Hoping for good VIX movements.
Look out for log cabin kits putbuyer, most of them rot out in a few years.Badly. I'll be building a but-pass log cabin this summer at the farm.
I took the class about 5 years ago from these guys
http://www.loghomebuilders.org/
and they know what they are doing..
Thanks for the info. I have 3 books on cabin building also. I am getting a camper up there first to have a place to sleep on weekends, while I build.
With logs, you need to make sure you have enough roof overhang so that your walls don't get wet. If water can get inbetween logs, you need to make sure it doesn't get trapped and can evaporate. So the log rule is (pun intended for those old enough to get it)
round on round, never, ever, flat on flat....also, flat on round allowed..
Best to build square and high, as to minimize roof area vs inside volume
You might want to check this out too...go with the cement fiberboard rather than the OSB, no termites! Their website could be flashier, but the product is great.
http://www.thermasave.us/
I build log homes when somebody wants one ... look into liquid glass as the final protective coating
Last comment putbuyer, spend a few extra bucks and put on a metal roof, standing seam if you can afford it. ...
Hi there. If I might put in my .02 I would recommend several alternatives to a log cabin.
1. Earthship - A rammed earth construction technique, with load bearing walls.
2. Strawbale construction
3. A yurt - google pacific yurts for examples. This would be perfect for a temporary residence.
4. Blown concrete construction
Google keyterms - Earthship, strawbale construction, pacific yurts, blown concrete construction
2 40 foot cargo containers ( smooth side aluminun) make an excellent base, for a rural cabin. strong, secure, you can cut windows, and doorways, with a sawzall, and a nailgun will penetrate the skin, to install siding
And they are cheap now too....high availability.
great for a tool shed too, while your cabin is under construction
What do you think is the best rural area of the country for one to build a doomstead? I am more talking about natural factors then social; would the winters of Upstate NY/ New England be too brutal and growing season too short? Is the high desert of Northern New Mexico/So. Colorado too dry? Juts interested in opions of the well informed people here.
Midwest or midsouth. You have to consider what the land will produce, plentiful water, a good safe distance from urban death traps.
The most important, but often ignored categories are the capabilities and ethics of your neighbors. When Iowa flooded, there was no looting. Food for thought.
Try and stay more than 1 gas tank away from the big cities.Build community, as kaiserhoff mentioned.
And remember, this just isn't survivalism driving this, our original motivations had a big component of just getting off the rat wheel and getting our lives back. Study the Amish, they are efficient at work and have lots leisure time, as did my subsistent farmer grandparents...which I was fortunate enough to witness firsthand...
Many thanks to the both of you.
Man, I am just personally fixated on North/Central Maine b/c land is cheap and plentiful, as is lumber. The people are great; I just always wonder if the winter would be too much. Mainers are some of the most community oriented, self reliant people out there (Amish too, no doubt), though if your fam hasn't lived there since the 1600's you will always be a noob...
100% agree with the subsistence/family farm thing. In fact I keep telling my wife that I want to work on a small farm for free in exchange for the knowledge, but she thinks I am a nut (which is true). Hell, I want to live that way even if the Sh*t doesn't hit the fan. I'm so sick of being a worker drone staring at this screen 80 hrs a week.
Again, thx guys.
Be aware that container floors may contain some very nasty pesticides. If you do use containers for habitation make sure to pull out the wooden floors and ensure there are no pesticide residues.
I have blown concrete construction before!
But seriously, I am thinking about concrete walls from the basement floor to about 4 feet above 1st floor level and then logs from there. Glue rocks on the outside of the concrete wall. I am trying to make something that fits nicely in the eastern hardwood forests
I.C.E. systems would get my vote, if you can get a concrete truck and pump to your site:
http://www.iceblock.net/iceblock/HowItWorks.html
Bullet and fire proof, too.
Have you been out to Taos? Earthships EVERYWHERE. People out there are living the good life off the grid. Still dependant on gasoline for transportation though. Love it out there. Had my eyes on 5 acres off West Rim Road. Heaven.
and then in 2012 ,, even worse . as the chickens come home to roost .
a person may even call it a bad hair year
Interesting, the disaster movies with a black President: Deep Impact, 2012, etc. Is this Obama's future, as the fall guy, below?:
http://public.bay.livefilestore.com/y1pF6yryz7uiK_Owx9byNftW43mq9NJ2ivVhbNEIsjZNWxJi7MufjCHhxPspilKXe5kpddTA_ZhcK8kJtUpfeSR5Q
Average American in 2010:
http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/march2009/ICG_SuckedDry.jpg
Let's hope so. The sooner the American public is cured of its financial illiteracy, naive socialist-utopian politics, and addiction to debt and entitlement spending, the better.
Great stuff...and then we can sit down with our rep's in DC and school them on financal literacy?
The ride's gonna get a little "rough".
Hang on - - - - - -
In 2005 I saw the writing on the wall. Surprised it has held together this long. Converted my 2.5 acres into a fruit tree grove. 120 + fruit trees. 4 varieties of pears, 4 varieties of peaches, figs, orange, lemon and apples, too. 1/4 acres in blackberries. My gold is the fruit production. Sell by U-pick and to veggies stands.
Giant garden and heirloom seeds, guard dogs, security, etc....
I'm ready.
All right Adam, you've got a garden of Eden.
Any proteins ?. Anti-biotics ?. Solar cell or wind generators ?. Heaters ?. Wood ?. Water ?. Guns ? Ammo ?. Gold ?. Toilet paper ?.
You still have work to do, but I like the way you think ...
No, I don't have work to do. Bring it on.
Oh really.
Let us know when you find out how many tons of fruit it takes for 1 cow when youre sick of essentially eating water in an shell of fibre.
interesting comment ZP. "water in a shell of fibre" you say????? well I became vegan 10 years ago and dont miss "water in a lattice structure of saturated fats" at all. the scientific jury is in. vegan fare is as varied as carnivorous fare. it is far cheaper and healthier. google for details. the more I study this issue, the more I realize that man is an obligate vegan. not too many weaned adults of other mammalian (or other) species that consume the milk of other creatures. errrr, that would be none. and yet we are bombarded with "got milk" bullshit advertising by big agribusiness. the only parallel between the rank dishonesty of banking and finance is, you guessed it, agribusiness. and I read the other day that health insurers invest heavily in fast food corporations. wake up zeropower dude and keep the cow for company instead!!!
Right.
That explains the canines, I suppose?
good question orly, I hear it a lot. my canines are very rudimentary as I am sure yours are. irrespective, just google skulls of chimpanzees, bonobos, orangutans, gorillas the great apes. closest cousins of homo sapiens. you will see that they are large and formidable. all are essentially 100% vegan. the reason for these canines is, of course, defense!
I have nothing against vegeterians or vegans, though i've found it's bothersome to argue with the latter. So firstly, let me say, while i appreciate your POV, i feel like youre extremely biased now after changing your lifestyle and believe all humans should do the same. How about i stick with my real food (no i dont mean processed garbage or fast food), and you stick with your foods. I saw Food Inc and know what a mess the whole industry is, but it won't distract me from trying to purchase local produce when i crave some meat in my diet.
To say vegan fare is carnivorous is about as much of a paradox as i can think of (leaving finance issues aside..). Some vegetables are even INEFFICIENT when it comes to providing 'fuel' to our bodies. It takes more calories to digest that stick of celery you chew on and so, in essence, eating celery actually detracts from your fullness.
So i hear you can get your protein in a select few items not consisting of meats or even dairy products, but really, who are you hurting when you eat an egg? When you drink a cow's milk, are you not helping it get rid of the excess when they have no calves to feed?
However i do agree with your latter point re insurers and food corporations. Absolutely zero transparency there and i doubt the public will ever find out what their true incentives are in their dealings with one another...
good thoughts ZP. luckily ZH readers are most often intellectually honest and usually seem open to the consideration of data that perhaps had not previously occurred to them. I have read ZH for quite a while and have been on board the Austrian school express for several years now. I am continually impressed by the likes of cheeky, chumba, CD et al. I dont place you ZP (or myself for that matter) in this select ZH pantheon of freethinkers, but have found your posts mostly logical and solid. so here are a few thoughts for you which I do hope you will not find too "bothersome;"
1. sorry you attack my "bias" instead of the logic of arguments. you are wrong about me caring too much about human diet (other than those truly in the ZH pantheon that is). the sheeple can eat/smoke/drink whatever they want. I love to see people smoking! no really I do!
2. agreed on MSM disinformation on nutrition. there is certainly an equivalence with disinformation on finance etc. so perhaps be more willing to examine the arguments of "contrarians." funny to read how many people are buying PM's these days. I can recall the ridicule of gold bugs a decade ago when I was piling in. just the logic sport, just the science.
3. you buy local produce. great. I am sure you read about the mis-labeled produce produced in china laden with melamine etc. whole foods aint what they used to be.
4. you misunderstood me. I did not say vegan fare was carniverous but vegan fare is/can be highly varied. my mistake for not making it clearer for you.
5. the GI tracts of obligate carnivores are very short in order to expel the toxic byproducts of digested meat (eg. big cats). The GI tracts of obligate vegans are very long, in order to digest fully vegetable matter. as you rightly said, a time consuming process. how long are human GI tracts.... very long, like obligate vegans. See my comment about canines above - I hear that (trite) argument often.
6. by all means eat an egg but review what the effects of high cholesterol will do to you. understand the unnatural schema of drinking the milk products of other mammals. no sport, it aint good for you. well, it is until you have your first stroke or MI and then the doc will tell you to cut it out. not difficult to understand. the argument about drinking milk to do the cow a favor because her calves have been slaughtered for veal is profoundly charitable but somewhat of a non-sequitor you will surely admit.
7. dont take my word for it, use google to get real facts about veganism. the MSM has done a job on joe 6pack and his comprehension of diet.
8. I used to live in the US but baled out to mediterranean europe (not one of those facing sovereign debt crises... hint, it is alpine!) thanks to the writings of john williams shadowstats, jim willie, fofoa, ZH, and the rest of the gang. so I am up to speed on dynamic matters financial. my point is that here, the people are so slim and seem to be a different subspecies of homo sapiens when compared with the corpulent slobs that inhabit the US. those corpulent slobs luurrv their meat and dairy. in the USSA even the thin people are FAT! you wont realise this until you travel to mediteranean europe. the difference is truly shocking. the difference is diet. the mediteranean diet is very close to vegetarian. I have extrapolated this data set and have concluded that veganism represents the safest, most natural, and therefore most healthy diet. I try to substantiate this with logic. Is a "bias" still a "bias," ZP, when founded on solid logic? that is the question. the hobbesian lives of americans (while already very short by OECD standards) are soon to become far more nasty and brutish!
9. intersting study recently which performed brain MRI's on obese amercans and found early but florid changes similar to those found in alzheimer's patients. this is why many people think fat folks are stupid. they are not but they are in the early stages of dementia. it follows that their diet is poisoning them - while most apparent in their corpulence, no organ is spared, not even the brain. see catherine austin fitts' theories on dietary toxicology.
10. tons of other data; translational medicine studies tracking the health of vegans from developing nations who move to "omniverous" USA and find that their health plunges in half a generation; longevity of okinawa diet (vegetarian except for fish). however levels of mercury and other heavy metals are now toxic in fish in almost ALL specimens sampled (google for verification please).
11. tremendous cost savings of a vegan diet since the health question has been solved. for millions of middle class americans entering their own worst economic nightmare... may be time to consider the dogma that "vegans" are crazy and their diet is dangerous.
12. you are very mistaken if you think I am proselytizing. please believe me when I tell you that I am not. the planet is overpopulated. 6.3 billion is unsustanable. I wish humans didnt breed as they do. I dont really care what you eat ZP, and offer you some real science since you do at least read ZH. I do believe in economic darwinism and believe that those who have not heeded the first chill winds of a kondratieff winter deserve what they get. imprudence in matters economical will be brutally punished. I shall weep not though. the herd needs to be dramatically thinned.
worth a second look old sport! apologies for the long post, but I hope the above is not too bothersome. if you are carrying a few extra pounds, zeropower, and struggle with the zerohedge mathematical question, it may be time to get a brain MRI! the results may just surprise you............
Probably the only decent conversation ive had with a vegan to date (not that there have been many before, though i do remember the vegan club at college offering me reusable plates at the cafeteria and me thanking them). I believe i can say i respect one's choice to become vegan (despite my young age, i am pretty old fashioned and conservative with my beliefs) even though i never see myself coming close to venturing on said path.
Being of European descent and visiting EU at least once a year, i can say (Western EU is already Americanized but..) countries East of Germany are all on their way to changed lifestyles. Ever since popular fast food from the West started flowing into the countries (jobs! cheap food! USA commercials!) i feel the lifestyle there has indeed spiralled (not sure yet whether for the better or worse..) in a direction which mimics that of America.
I hope you enjoy your new home (the hint was sufficient enough!), ill probably keep this post in mind next time i try and NOT roll my eyes at a vegan.
Wow. Okay. Pretty simple:
canines=omnivore.
End of story.
orly... shurely you jest. A canine (in taxonomic categorical isolation) does not a carnivore OR omnivore make. How can I explain this for you? A human does not have the same diet as a leopard because of the presence of his/her (albeit rudimentary) canines. You must have the context of the same genus... no? comparative anatomy etc.
so look at the great apes which have real (and impressive) canines. They are all basically vegan. they are our closest cousins and have similar anatomies and physiologies. they are not omnivores but vegetarians/vegans.
the urge to simplify is dangerous. the presence of canines in hominids signifies defense not carniverous predilection.
hominid (great ape) canines = defense = vegan diet
hope this helps you.
often in the USA when asked the (predictable) questions about veganism by (often) obese interlocutors I would respond that ...... I in essence have the diet of a bushman from the northern kalahari (omaheki province which I inhabited for a time)... pulses, cereals, leaves, roots and OCCASIONALLY the flesh of the bushman's daughter.
the invariable incredulous mouth-agape reply.... dude whaaaaaaaaaat?
I've thought about becoming a Vegan, but I just can't get past the delivery time from Vega.
Great pic. "Revolution Calling?"
This site is beginning to freak me out a little bit and I say this as a person who has served prison time and lived a life few ever walk away from alive.
I am beginning to fear more than I did in the summer of '08 but I fear not for myself as I am as prepared as possible.
To hear people such as yourselves (I have vast respect for everyone here) speak like this is confirmation of my gut instincts. I'm a poor man but have learned to be content with very little and have recieved great knowledge at ZH. I have not the means to own property but feel more well suited to live on the waterways of the western interior US until this all blows over.
Thank you and good luck, gentlemen.
and ladies.
Yeah. Ladies.
I'll third that.
There is quite an interesting mix of people here.
I would highly recommend you read a few books by the likes of James Rawles, Tom Baugh, Charles Hugh Smith, and "FerFAL" Fernando Aguirre. You may find all interesting, and they are distinctly different takes on the future. All four of these authors also have blogs with a lot of interesting info (google is your friend). Beyond that either amazon.com or the library is your friend, depending on your budget and time availability.
Being mentally prepared for what are likely to be significant changes in a lot of things is key, I think. Physical preparation is good too, but nothing can substitute for mental preparation.
For what it's worth, and given circumstances I think are more similar to Argentina than Japan, I think money spent on Aguirre's book will prove money well spent. He seems to think that the mental and physical are critical, and it's hard to disagree with an economic collapse Renaisance man like that (this is serious stuff, and all kidding aside).
FerFAL is the only one writing based on personal, real-world recent past experience, and that is quite valuable. However I would get multiple perspectives because I think our situation could get worse than Argentina's, mainly because they are only a regional player with the rest of the world to provide some level of support, while if the US goes, it will cause a tsunami globally - there won't be anyone positioned to come bail us out or (gasp) keep us from starving if things get that bad.
I agree with you, I just would put a heavy weight on FerFAL because he has been there, done that, even though our case could very well be worse.
RFC on the government annuitizing our 401k's supports your case.
Good luck to you too, jdrose. Let's all be prepared for anything.
As best we can, I agree. There is a cloud of ash hovering over us that begs to differ. Could be an attitude change we will benefit from. Stolen from the Beatles and reformed oh so slightly. I have posted this before:
Blackswan singing in the dead of night...
Take these broken wings and learn to fly
All your life
You were only waiting for this moment to arise
Blackswan singing in the dead of night
Take these sunken eyes and learn to see
All your life
You were only waiting for this moment to be free
Blackswan fly, blackswan fly
Into the light of the dark black night
Blackswan fly, blackswan fly
Into the light of the dark black night
Blackswan singing in the dead of night
Take these broken wings and learn to fly
All your life
You were only waiting for this moment to arise
You were only waiting for this moment to arise
You were only waiting for this moment to arise
For some reason, this link seems at home on this thread.
http://www.liquorlocusts.com/the-whiskey-standard
"A fine hit" master Meriadoc
Thankyew.
I have stored three cases of vodka, for this reason. Funny that three thing, just seemed right to me at the time.
So if this guy is right, then gold/silver would probably crash along with the indexes?
I'm guessing he is hinting at the USD appreciating?
I'm long silver/gold bullion/miners/possession but fully aware I could be right and still end up being a loser in a market crash.
Well I think that their is the possabillity of a down turn in gold/silver and miners etc, the fact is that people will have a flight to saftey if stocks etc go down. It will be ultimately a loss for paper assets, not physcial. Now how long you can hold on along for the ride of what very well could be several generations in the making to remain solvent to reap your rewards is another matter.
Short GLD and Long GC ... guaranteed strategy ... GLD goes before commodity markets
Nobody but my wife believes me about this. She trusts me because we cashed out before the crash based on my google searches of the Bank for International Settlements articles.
Hey guys, here's a first, some guy whose wife believes him! You lucky dog, our wives think we are friggin nuts.....
+1 !!!!!
hmm, we need to think of a strategy to deal with this common problem. promise to let her pick the drapes in the compound?
Oh drapes are easy in the compound, black and thick to keep light from showing that you have power(solar, wind, back up gen) when the rest of the country is dark.
My husband believes me and goes along with whatever I do. Thing that pisses me off a bit is that I have it all in hand and he frolics along with out any worry. I have monitoring fatigue, he is happy go lucky. I am tense he is laid back. I save for retirement, he never did. He has gotten us squared away on home defense (and trained, he is ex military) and we are both working on physical fitness. He picked some tools. He supports my garden sometimes by doing big work with me. Still, I worry and report, he listens then glazes over. He always wants the bottom line, not the details. I probably let off some steam he does not want (or that bores him) by participating here.
Some wives get it and have to take point prepping for the unit.
That was a great analysis!
"The second half of this decade will witness a very different world."
Peak oil will make sure of that! The bankers did not even need to mess up the money for that to happen...but they did. Because thats what they do best. They fuck with our money. As the great actor Sean Pufy P.Diddy Widdy Colms said in the classic film "Made", the sequel to "Swingers", "You are fuckin' wit my money, and I DON'T like my MONEY to be FUCKED WITH!" America, they are fucking with your money. Get it back.
Did you mean currency? Its hard to mess with real money, it is what it is.
Gold $300, oil $20barrel; Gold $1200, oil $80barrel; or 15 barrels of oil per ounce of gold regardless of $. The Saud's like gold, they use frn's to "bank" more gold.