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Step Aside Roubini - FX Concepts' John Taylor Is The New Dr. Doom: "2011 Will Be Worse Than 2008"
John Taylor, CIO of FX-Concepts, the world's biggest FX fund, is now officially the new Dr. Doom. We we gladly pay $29.95 to watch him live on a CNBC octobox that features him, Liesman, Cramer, Pisani, Burnett, A. Joseph Cohen, David Bianco and the guy who said AIG was going to $1,000, with occasional eye-rolling from the Fast Money brigade.
We’re Still Dancing – Round II
By John R. Taylor, Jr.
Chief Investment Officer
US employment numbers turned up last month with the help of some temporary $20 per hour jobs in the decennial census, at the same time retail sales jumped 1.6%, way outpacing any plausible rise in personal income. “Hooray!” cried the markets, the US consumer is alive and spending again. American trade figures deteriorated sharply as well, even though the oil import bill was down, as other imports grew rapidly while exports languished, making it very clear that the US had reclaimed its old position as the world’s consumer of last resort. The US recovery is now looking more like one of the standard post-World War II exercises with a distinct resemblance to the two “jobless” ones that started in 1992 and 2002. As a result of the very low interest rates, non-existent inflation, and rather weak dollar, the economy is in a sweet spot, a Goldilocks situation for corporations and wealthy families. Unfortunately this positive spell does not cover a significant portion of the country’s economic actors. The losers are the middle and lower-middle classes as well as the state and local governments and those who depend on them for jobs or their largesse. They are the first to lose as a result of the shrinking availability of debt financing – the de-leveraging of America. This economic recovery is different because these groups are already struggling even though liquidity is super-plentiful and riskfree rates are near zero. They are too leveraged to borrow more. Usually those who are going to be the victims don’t begin getting into trouble until Fed tightening starts, but this time they are in bad shape already.
The global risk markets are taking advantage of this excess liquidity and the Goldilocks situation. As the market players, whether in corporate or individual form, are among the blessed, they can and are rebuilding their leverage and playing the game. It’s like 2008 never happened, just a one in a thousand perfect wave, and the market participants have forgotten, just like they did in 1998 and 2003. As there is incredible liquidity available, those who can get their hands on it will use it. The authorities who saved the economy from destruction in 2008 are either busy patting themselves on the back or fighting for their own national interest. The Eurozone countries are blaming the ‘Anglo-Saxon’ hedge funds and free market philosophy, while, in many cases, the US authorities are in the forefront of the ‘perfect storm’ crowd – just a nip or a tuck here or there and everything will be fine. China has its own view of things and the other Asians are acting as though they were on a different planet – “what happens in Europe and North America stays there and has no impact on us.” This serious reluctance to replace parochial issues with a genuine desire to restructure world finance assures us that the next crisis will be far worse than the one in 2008. Although it seemed that the world was terrified by that collapse, it is now clear that the authorities and the players were not so bothered that they changed their stripes. The cycles and very simple fundamentals are enough to predict that 2011 will be worse than 2008. The medium-term cycles tell us that there is a very high probability of a serious bout of risk aversion beginning in the next five trading days and continuing into the week of May 3. This is likely to be most apparent in Europe, but it should also impact the equity and commodity markets around the world. The stream of strong economic and corporate news, plus continued benign inflation outside of Asia should assure us of a further risk rally, starting in May and running through July and possibly into early August. This decline after the August peak should be far more serious and we believe it will be the start of a major market rout continuing into the middle of 2011, at a minimum. The deflationary recession that will accompany this market collapse, at least in the developed world, will put extreme pressure on the Eurozone and the EMU structure. The second half of this decade will witness a very different world.
ht/ Teddy KGB
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"they use frn's to "bank" more gold"
Just like PRC is fixing to do,when they do(very shortly), bend over, and grab some asstroturf.
Who junked this?
Peak oil? Inevitable. All there is to debate is when and if we can land the planet gradually or not.
I despise it when they fuck with my money. My rage knows no bounds in this regard.
So why junk this?
.
Detailed Rationale for a Western-World Currency Collapse
A while back Jim Sinclair gave an audio interview where he said that reckless actions of out-of-control "criminal banking syndicates" made up of sociopaths are attacking countries.
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/2/15_Jim_Sinclair_files/Jim%20Sinclair%202%3A15%3A2010.mp3
Sinclair did not elaborate and I did not understand what he was saying until Mr. Long filled in the details for me. Gordon T Long is a former senior group executive with IBM & Motorola, a principle in a high tech public start-up and founder of a private venture capital fund.
His Web site is a jumble, but the man does have a point to make. First there is this article: "Extend & Pretend: Gaming the US Tax Payer" connects seven suspicious clues (inconsistencies) that we see in today's financial news.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/gtlong/2010/0416.html
Then, in Long's Web page, he develops the financial criminality to which Jim Sinclair was referring. We have seen this before in CDOs and CDSs, but not on this scale and now the victims will soon be every Western-World taxpayer.
=================================
SULTANS OF SWAP
<snip>
Why is everything hidden in the murky depths called “special” – like SPE, SPV or “Structured” – like SIV? The answer is to keep them off the balance sheet. Why would you not want something on the balance sheet where investors and interested parties could see what is happening? Obviously so you can camouflage them from what is happening.
The reason is fundamentally Credit Ratings. Keep your debts low and your credit ratings high and the cost of money is cheap. The cheaper money is, the more borrowing will occur. Everyone is happy except the unwitting lender.
It is here ladies and gentlemen that we discover the Sultans of Swap. The Bond Vigilantes are of a previous era. They are dead – RIP. Through the magic mix of Credit Default Swaps, Dynamic Hedging and Interest Rate Swaps the Sultans of Swaps effectively control interest rate spreads. Through Regulatory Arbitrage they extort tremendous political sway globally. They live in the world of risk free spreads. Low interest rates simply attract more volume for their concoctions. We have had an explosion in Money Supply globally as the charts (right) indicate. The parabolic rise matches the increase in these derivative products along with their ability to turn Interest Rate Swaps into high powered bank lending.
Like Achilles Heel in Greek mythology, there is an exposure. Everything is based on tax payers paying, GDP expanding and interest rates staying low. Titlos PLC shows severe structured collateral calls when these assumptions change even modestly (5).
http://lcmgroupe.home.comcast.net/~lcmgroupe/2010/Article-Sultans_of_Swap-605T_of_Derivatives.htm
http://lcmgroupe.home.comcast.net/~lcmgroupe/Tipping_Points.htm
You do not mean these guys? No?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2nQZPC2uTs
Put another way:
Let's do some quick math.If you add up the value of every stock on the planet, the entire market capitalization would be about $36 trillion. If you do the same process for bonds, you'd get a market capitalization of roughly $72 trillion.The notional value of the derivative market is roughly $1.4 QUADRILLION
Put another way..If you add up the value of every stock on the planet, the entire market capitalization would be about $36 trillion. If you do the same process for bonds, you'd get a market capitalization of roughly $72 trillion.The notional value of the derivative market is roughly $1.4 QUADRILLION <and no that money will never be paid back>
"The world does not have so much money to buy more US Treasuries." The comment by Zhu Min, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/print.asp?id=423054
"The medium-term cycles tell us that there is a very high probability of a serious bout of risk aversion beginning in the next five trading days and continuing into the week of May 3. This is likely to be most apparent in Europe, but it should also impact the equity and commodity markets around the world."
I wonder if the risk aversion will be so short lived. We may be looking at the mother of all Black Swans with the smothering of Europe under a cloud of ash. It will be interesting to see what the European markets do on Monday.
It will be interesting to see what the European markets do on Monday.
You may want to check Asian markets tonight; they'll be just as red. Remember China's real estate bubble? It's been pricked by new rules imposed by the State Council, as detailed in the link below. Welcome to the global waterfall!
http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-document-number-10-real-estate-20...
At times I think people insane........
Flight away from RISK aversion........
Every tangible item, of real value is pounded.
For what?.........useless paper?, damn people are stupid as hell.
But, then 90% of the planet, esp in the Western world are all sheeple.
Well, if folks do not have physical PM's now,they may soon be SOL. Physical is getting tougher to get, and it's going to get a whole lot worse, if not impossible.
Lear Cap, put a limit of $5k, on all purchases when the tickers off.
How does this quote below fit into the doom senerio? Who can honestly call a move down, move up, then crash. Either data support a crash or don't.
"The stream of strong economic and corporate news, plus continued benign inflation outside of Asia should assure us of a further risk rally, starting in May and running through July and possibly into early August."
Reminds me of Cramer saying the market is going to go up, down, and stay flat.
What I liked best was when the author told of not recognizing what will be. I think that this was the set up as well. Dow Jones 11,000 right now I mean come on! But with currentseas forming tsunamis of debt and such, the crash may not be recognizable to the untrained eye.
That is why ZH is so fascinating. This family has many brillant perspectives, and when combined, they form a pseudo 'Voltron'. And TD/Marla/other contributers are the HEAD, knowhatimean?
Voltron....hahaha....
I was recently watching Voltron on youtube after 20+ years. "The Missing Key" episode...gosh, I can't believe its been >2 decades since I first started watching that show...
.
Even in the case of falling empires, typically, it is only many years or decades after the fact that the turning point is identified, if at all (surprise attacks and wars tend to be the exceptions to this general rule that tends to apply more to economic and social decay). Even our own NBER waits until well after the fact to tell us what most of us know. As NWA pointed out, "the revolution will not be televised"; for it was, it probably wouldn't be a revolution.
It is my firm belief at this point that we passed the turning point in 2007-2008, the next few years to decade or so will determine how bad and how long it will suck and what remains on the other side (i.e., of our country). As some Russian guy noted after seeing the USSR go down the tubes, "collapse is a process". I would qualify it that it tends to be a process, but can ceratinly have dramatic events along the way.
Complex systems can fail catastrophically when mismanaged this badly. Thats why the comparison to Rome fails. Compared to the level of complexity required to keep this society running, Rome was relatively simple.
Throw in 100's of millions of folks completely dependent on cheap oil, and one can see that the next couple of years are going to be tragic...
Yes, that is true, but I am not really thinking of Rome, more Soviet Union. In the USSR case it seems to me we have another badly managed society where government control and supports keep it going until they just couldn't, then it just kind of faded away (albeit somewhat dramatically at times, e.g., the Berlin Wall). While certainly possible, I am not convinced most people that are unaware of what has happened and is happening will wake up one day and declare in virtual unison that a new day has dawned (e.g., we even have people on this website that keep declaring government is the solution and/or capitalism is inherently bad, or those who believe that if we just think positively all can be well, whom I doubt will just turn around one day soon to declare the reverse). Anyways, certainly a non-zero probability of catastrophic collapse, given the moves made over time, and certainly those moves made of late; but I still think more of a stair step down to a kind of economic and social purgatory.
This is all about oil...and gold...and silver...and steel. But mostly the oil.
Ouch. Gil Scott Heron said "The Revolution Will Not Be Televised!" NWA merely quoted him.
Yea I didnt get that comment line either, he says theres big risk aversion developing now till May, but there will be a further risk rally thru July. Cant make sense of it, seems there may have been some words left out in translation, or he's pulling a Cramer saying things will definitely either go up or down, depending on the direction things take.
Personally, I think we're fuked.
Anyone have any experience storing bullion w Anglo Far East?
Their vault is in Switzerland I believe.. allocated bullion.. any thoughts?
Short Dec NQs. Buy a small farm, some gold coins and some protection. That is the ultimate hedge.
It is very much a Madhouse.
If all this is cyclical, does it mean we are missing the end of the world (2012) by one year? Because 2012 could be like 2009...
The discussion of log cabins reminds me of an investment opportunity that turned out very well for me. Knowing that self constructed log cabins would become popular, I went to a well known big box do it yourself store several years ago and recommended they stock log cabin kits for the do it your selfer. Not only that, I told the store which log cabin manufacturer they should buy from. What the store didn't know -- I had researched log cabin kit manufacturers and found one that provided an inferior product. The store adopted my recommendation and stocked and sold thousands of the log cabin kits in just a few months time. Each cabin came with a life time money back warranty. The cabin company bought insurance to cover warranty loses from Acme International Group. In addition, they provided funding for a PBS show about restoring old cabins and got the show's host to endorse their cabins. The stock of the log cabin company sky rocketed and I sold the stock of the company short with all I had and all I could get my hands on for several months. After the first winter, the cabins deteriorated to the point where the cost of restoring the cabin exceeded the original cost of the cabin. The cabin company was overwhelmed with calls on the warranty. Acme International Group turned out to be dishonest, money hungry, thieves (imagine that) and they couldn't cover the warranties. Perhaps that's a little too harsh. I suppose, possibly, they made their decisions on the basis of forecasts that indicated it would never rain again. Needless to say the log cabin company went under and their stock went to zero (or close to it). I live out of country now; on a big boat; where the water is warm, the women are tanned and my hardest decision of the day is deciding what I want for dinner. Isn't America great? PS: the federal government eventually came in and provided financial assistance to the cabin owners for not only reconstruction of their cabins, but upgrading of the cabins to McMansions. Isn't America great?
ha!
So you became enriched by spreading lies/misinformation and betting on the outcome of your actions instead of contributing to the betterment of society.
Because of you, customers were conned into buying an inferior product and US taxpayers ended up paying to repair and upgrade their homes.
Yeah, ain't America great?
See a weakness, exploit it, drive companies with poor products out of business, companies with better products survive, are encouraged to cut their prices due to competition. Quality of goods increases over time, while prices decrease over time.
Wasn't America great?
Of course, in the USSA, we bail out the insurance company, and continue providing cheap shit replacements for those log cabins, and no-one ever learns their lesson, quality continues to deteriorate as prices go up (they only have to charge slightly less than the high quality manufacturers).
Ain't the USSA shitty?
This is another Ben Dover story..(Bend Over actually) Good Goldman analogy HillBillyFreak, how's that banjo playing ?
If you read between the lines, I think it's all actually a clever metaphor for Goldman and AIG and the ensuing federal bailouts.
Acme International Group = "AIG"
satire, dummy, satire.
I'm thick as a brick. Had to junk myself. And to think, I've procreated (twice no less). My contribution to society-an endless stream of addle brained worker bees for the smart people to exploit.
You're not thick, you are wound up and you were sprung. It would be great to confront a real cheat, wouldn't it? I think you can crave it so much you can miss satire and leap before you look.
That microcosmic moment could get repeated over and over again as things unravel. We all need level heads now. We are all ready to spring.
At least you have the integrity to own a misperception.
No further punishment required.
I love the ZH community. Quick to admit error, and learn from it. He got you good on this one Jendrzejczyk.
You MUST work for GS...........
hillbilly - you sound like you are completely full of shit
When I was in Australia, I learned that punters are what Americans call Johns (clients of hookers). Are you saying you are an "Australian_hooker's client?" It is okay if you are, just an interesting way of defining oneself.
Buy Low Sell High
Keep in mind that FX concepts is just a high tech momentum model. Taylor is a very bright guy but he does not look at fundamentals. He looks at waves on a graph.
So now he sees the graph first going down, then back up till August and then bck dow for a millenium. Who knows, maybe that is what is in store.
But if something wierd were to happen like the Euro going over 1.40 the computer would spit out a different answer.
I don't trust computers to forecast the future. The are about a 50-50 shot. They are sucessful because they tend to ride profits and cut losses. But they really have very little predictive power.
Bruce, I was also thinking about a bit too narrow a focus as presented by Taylor.
I am expecting some fireworks before CY2011. I am watching closely the situation at the state level, especially California. I do not see any real easy way to QE money directly into California's general fund. For several reasons, some political and some constitutional. Also, it seems that an overall State aid package would probably come in at around $500B. Not a realistic option for the Administration or the FED.
Another area for me is the is the problem of the FED in controlling long term +5Y Treasury rates. An evolving problem of diminishing worldwide capacity to buy sovereign debt. When we get to the 5Y and beyond, my analysis shows that a limit is reached to the amount of capital available to buy debt. At some point the market gets depleated, and grinds to a halt. The deterioration can be pronounced. The first step is a shift to the shorter side of issuance.
If the FED steps in to buy our own debt, rates can be controlled but, the currency is all but dead. The key question here is how the Congress and Administration respond to the inability to fund government due to limited debt sales. How will they explain the situation after pronouncing victory over the financial crisis. Essentially, they will have to ask the FED to help pay the bills. But, Ben will not do this without an utter and complete dismemberment of the administration's fiscal irresponsibility. Forced QE will kill the USD and with it the FED. Prolonged QE is not a viable monetary policy, it is not a plausible coarse of action for a central bank, there is no real strategy for the FED other than to say it is an attempt to delay the inevitable.
Mark Beck
wow, looks like mr. taylor read the latest 'shape of things to come' report
China has been using the “export to grow” model, following the Japanese example which was so successful for that country after World War II. The model is relatively simple. Take a compliant, hard working workforce, pay them relatively little comparative to the developed economies which are the target market, and produce a flood of low cost goods of reasonable quality which undercut anything similar produced in the developed economies. Export these cheap goods to the developed market and ruthlessly suppress any rise in exchange rates which would be the natural consequence of such a one sided trade flow and would normally remove the competitive advantage.
The result, a rapidly growing economy and huge foreign currency reserves, which can be recycled to provide liquidity and credit in the developed economies to keep the whole merry-go-round turning. If the export starter motor can be kept running long enough then ultimately the domestic economy within the emerging country will reach critical mass and start to provide an internal home for what were previously exported goods.
For the system to work properly the consuming nations would need to see their incomes in real terms rising in order to be able sustainably to keep purchasing the exported goods. That patently has not happened. Rather in the west, incomes in real terms have either remained static or have fallen for a generation.
It was not rising real incomes that fuelled western consumerism but rising real debt, the like of which the world has never seen. The debt explosion was made possible by historically low central bank interest rates together with new forms of financial instruments, mainly based on securitisation and repackaging of loans to be sold on to investors, allowing banks in many cases to operate at reserve ratios far lower than would normally be considered prudent.
As we all now know the system finally hit the buffers when the least creditworthy began to default triggering a systemic collapse in the entire financial system which threatened Armageddon.
The “Great Collapse” of 2008 occurred because banks had run out of creditworthy customers to lend to. The emergence of the NINJA loan (no income, no job, no assets) was the last hurrah in the huge credit boom. Sub prime mortgages were in reality no hope mortgages
For the last two years we have been living through the “Great Postponement”. Losses that should have been taken by the banks instead were moved up the food chain to be borne by sovereign entities and their unwitting tax payers. Now we have both sub prime mortgages and sub prime states.
Keynsians would have you believe that in extremis, the state must become the lender and spender of last resort, replacing demand in the private sector lost to deleveraging, as people and companies rebuild their balance sheets.
This presupposes that there will come a time when the Keynsian stimulus will have worked its magic and can be withdrawn as the private sector economy picks up and once again becomes self sustaining, generating jobs and ultimately increased tax revenues, which will repay the benevolent state its investment.
That approach could well work were if the recovery were to be driven by rising real incomes. But that’s not going to happen because the same globalisation pressures which forced down incomes in the west are still there. So demand is going to have to come from consumers taking on more debt. But that’s not going to happen either as consumers were already maxed out before the Great Collapse – hence the problem.
This time all that government stimulus has done is jeopardise sovereign solvency and it is only a matter of time before interest rates begin to rise globally as governments compete for the limited capital to finance their borrowing habit. Western democracies will find it politically impossible to change their ways and cut their coat according to their cloth. There are just too many people of influence riding on the back of government largesse to make that possible.
We will have to wait for the real collapse before enough people in western democracies wake up to the fact that the game is up. Whether we can rebuild from there without massive social upheaval and civil unrest remains to be seen.
Gussiefink nottle:
Very nice synopsis; but I would add the ability to copy and/or take/steal technology without full economic compensation. In a sense that particular export led model has been dependent, at least in part, on turning the traditional notion of comparative advantage on its head. That is, one must be able to do that some other country's industry was doing previously and undercut it in pricing (via the labor and/or currency arbitrage), while developing the same expertise (or in some cases not as high a level of expertise but substituting an even lower price). The reason I add this point, is that products and services that are the most profitable tend not to be those that are well know and easily replicated. High real wages depend generally on relatively high margin products and services, and somebody somewhere must be producing these types of products and services or it truely would appear to be a race to mediocrity (i.e., in terms of wages). To be blunt, given the extent to which many products and services, especially recently, have been 'commoditized', for me it means that rebuilding will be especially tough.
Again, I liked your post.
You are of course correct. However, a great deal of that transferred technology was transferred by western global corporations looking for a cheaper manufacturing base.
In truth the future does look bleak. Some 750,000 engineering graduates in China, 400,000 in India but less than 50,000 in the USA and only 10,000 in the UK. In the case of the latter two countries, a significant proportion of those graduates headed not for the workbench but to the far more lucrative field of financial engineering. This is just one of the many adverse side effects caused by the the world of finance being grotesquely over rewarded comparative to the mainstream economy.
As an aside, this site could maybe do with some engineering graduates because it seems to crash with tedious regularity.
True but you have to make allowances. Even though the underground ZH site is hardened against EMP attacks, an occasional mega-gauss leak is bound to get through once in a while.
Having spent a great deal of time in India recently, I do want to point out something about the engineering "graduate" numbers. While the numbers sound very impressive, there are not enough jobs (partially due to the inefficiencies of the labor markets there) to absorb the supply. I have seen with my own eyes many of those engineering graduates working on the gangs building roads in Bangalore.
like lawyers here. wonder if the indian engineers have mountains of non discharge able student debt
"but less than 50,000 in the USA "
Yep, but WHY?.simple...................we imported them and hired them for LESS than American Enginners cost to employ.
Now, Big business has figured out a better way, don't relocate them here, keep them home, pay them less, BUT enough to live the same way they would HERE.
Win/Win..................World 95,USA -0-............
The Presidential cycle says 2011 a good one for stocks. This has worked for the first year of a new President's tenure since at least Nixon. And the 3rd year of term two also works with the minor exception of 1987, which was flat.
I have no idea what will happen tomorrow. Thinking beyond sell in May and go away is long-term these days.
Errr...sorry, Doc. That's not correct.
According to research done by Ken Fisher, one of the first two years of the president's term is very good, the third year okay and the last year mostly in the red.
Interestingly, he found that if the first year is the good one, the gains are moderate. If the second year is the one that gains, those gains are extraordinary. Since this year has been the moderate-gaining year, expect next year to be down and the third year not much of a recovery.
This analysis can be found in his must-have book, The Only Three Questions That Count.
"And the 3rd year of term two also works"
You are truely lost. There won't be a second term for this clown.
Pandora's Box
April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co. engaged in the same investor fraud that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission accused Goldman Sachs Group Inc. of committing, according to a bank that sued the firm in New York last year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_vJB04lghjc&pos=7
Bending the "cost curve "
The widespread litigations against all of the TBTF banks that will likely insue from the SEC's GS "case" combined with the effect of Iceland's Helka volcano may make mid-2010 worse than 2008. Recent Helka eruption lengths:
1970 - 2 months
1980 - 4 days
1981 - 8 days
1991 - close to 2 months
2000 - 11 days
No , no not Helga, watch Vulcano Katla, situated to the east of the smaller glacier Eyjafjallajökull:
Or is it all entertainment? http://is.gd/bvgoM
Can't believe everyone is stuck on the small impact of the Volcanoes in Iceland. Global cooling is the Black Swan. Tell Al Gore that the glaciers in the French Alps will reach the outskirts of Paris!
I have planted fruit trees, building a greenhouse and loaded up on reloading dies and components. Waiting for the whole thing to tank, and will pick up some cheap gold and silver and be done. Chickens next year. It won't be the end of the world, just the world as we knew it! For many, this will not end well....
You're right. I had the wrong volcano. The one erupting is Eyjafjallajokull and that name is probably the reason you almost never see anything more thna "Iceland volcano" in media reports: Here's the stas on the _correct_ volcano from Wikipedia and it could be worse that for the one I previously quoted beacuse the length of the eruptions are not listed:
"Over the past 1,100 years, Eyjafjallajökull has erupted four times: in 920, 1612, between 1821–1823, and in 2010. Each of the first three of these incidents preceded an eruption in the nearby subglacial volcano, Katla.[14] Katla – a much more active volcano known for its powerful subglacial eruptions and its large magma chamber, much larger than that of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano system – has not shown any unusual activity, such as expansion of the crust or seismic activity, in 2010. Some geophysicists in Iceland support the notion that the recent volcanic eruption at Eyjafjallajökull may trigger a second eruption at Katla, one which would cause major flooding due to melting of glacial ice."
All this bad news tells me the DOW should hit 12500 by the end of the week.Seriously though, this mess pisses me off. I sold my house at the peak and moved into a rental.I have been stocking food and ammo but can't stock too much because I have to move it, can't move because the Gov has fuked the real estate market up so badly. It should have dropped another 40%, so I could be on my own 5 acres with my own damn chickens. What the hell am I supposed to do, you can only store so many Costco bulk toilet paper rolls into a single car garage that has a 45 year old truck in there with it. Sigh, maybe I should just go buy a house I can't afford and head to bankBama with my hand out saying " Please,please sir, can you spare me a trillion for a loaf of bread."
watch april 28th
it may then starts the major market rout
We are going negative GDP in Q3 after a barely positive number in Q2 and the manufactured stimulus/inventory rebuilding 3% growth in Q1 which will be trumpeted as prooof we are out of recession just like Q4 was. We will be in a very bad situiation until at least 2025 due to the changing demographics which is going to kill consumer demand and that is on top of all the debt saturation problems. 2010 will be a relatively good year compared to what is coming down the road.
However, America can and likely will import consumers. The health care bill is a gigantic welcome mat for those who will be using the newly upgraded African airport infrastructure.
There are deep structural problems in the US but demographics is not one of them.
US Birth Tourism becoming a flourishing business | Apr 14, 2010
Millions of foreign tourists visit the United States every year, and a growing number return home with a brand new U.S. citizen in tow.
Thousands of legal immigrants, who do not permanently reside in the United States but give birth here, have given their children the gift of citizenship, which the U.S. grants to anyone born on its soil.
The number of U.S. births to non-resident mothers rose 53 percent between 2000 and 2006, according to the most recent data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Total births rose 5 percent in the same period.
Among the foreigners who have given birth here, including international travelers passing through and foreign students studying at U.S. universities, are "birth tourists," women who travel to the United States with the explicit purpose of obtaining citizenship for their child.
Catering to the women is a nascent industry of travel agencies and hotel chains seeking to profit from the business.
The Marmara Manhattan, a Turkish-owned luxury hotel on New York's City Upper East Side, markets birth tourism packages to expectant mothers abroad... The hotel estimates the total cost of the package at $45,000. ...
For those with the means to pay, it's a small price to give a child the full benefits of U.S. citizenship, including the ability to travel freely to and from the United States, easy access to a U.S. education and a chance to start a life here. …
The greatest of those advantages may be the ability of the citizen child to later sponsor the legal immigration of his or her entire family permanently to this country, experts say. …
The State Department and Department of Homeland Security have no specific regulations banning pregnant foreigners from entering the United States. …
The United States is one of the few remaining countries to grant citizenship to all children born on its soil. The United Kingdom, Ireland, India and Australia, among others, have since revised their birthright laws, no longer allowing every child born on their soil to get citizenship.
Source: abcnews.go.com
http://www.eturbonews.com/15529/us-birth-tourism-becoming-flourishing-bu...
jr, you are very interesting.
your topics are intriguing.
Ah, velobabe. Of wine! …and roses.
Going to have to be ONE HELL OF A IMPORT.........
The most numerous generation(Boomers), is beginning to leave us, and the humongous numbers left, are the most wealthy class left.....
That is, until, they get bent over & double loaded up...when their portfolios go to ZERO, because they own little to no PM's........all paper bullship.
Can you spell Euthanasia boy's n gurls?.
Soylent Green................
I think even with immigration the baby boomers aging and the fact that people stop consuming nearly as much at 55 and up are going to be big drags on the economy.
Put another way..If you add up the value of every stock on the planet, the entire market capitalization would be about $36 trillion. If you do the same process for bonds, you'd get a market capitalization of roughly $72 trillion.The notional value of the derivative market is roughly $1.4 QUADRILLION <and no that money will never be paid back>
"The world does not have so much money to buy more US Treasuries." The comment by Zhu Min, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/print.asp?id=423054
As I understood it the original quote said that "Not enough money exist in the world to buy existing US Treasuries."
As I understood it the original quote said that "Not enough money exist in the world to buy existing US Treasuries."
As I understood it the original quote said that "Not enough money exist in the world to buy existing US Treasuries."
turn the selector to single-fire
three round bursts are good in the jungle.
your tits are realy distracting
I've finally parted ways with you guys last summer, when I realized that my daily consumption of relentless prophecies of doom on this site (& particularly in the comments section) were costing me serious money. So I stopped reading (at least every post) and played the swings in the market (but mostly playing the long side) and cashed in lovely.
But I'm ready to come back to papa, now. It all makes perfect sense.
This bitch is ready to come crashing down.
I made some "long" money to last year thanks to Marc Faber's call in March. I also agree with most of his long term predictions, including his "we are all doomed".
Take some of your profits and invest in long term storage food, I did.
Hulk, my husband doesn't believe me!
:)
Hey, Tyler - why don't you set up a stream comments section like the eyeglass one on littlegreenfootballs?
That would be cool, and it might direct a lot more traffic your way.
I think Mt. Eyjafjallajokull and Mt. GS are reason enough for a pullback to around S&P 1150.
I agree ... but if we don't pull back on all the bad news ... where then?
gold, gardens and guns won't be worth much when the hungry hoards find out you are the only one who has the things that they need. That is just another pipe dream.
And one I would cling to, as the Chairman said so eloquently;
"All political power comes from the barrel of a gun".
The "Hordes", will be less likely to be nearly as well armed, and supplied...........many here could start their own fricken armies.
The closer this get's, the shelves empty,and once it does, Bro, those folks 95+% are going to be SOL.
The average Large urban area's, only have approx 3 days "Normal" demand on the shelves........their suppliers Whses, only stock approx MAX, 3 weeks,that's why trucks and rails are running 24/7/365...........
After that.........your ass is grass.
Re: the idea that preparation is all for nought when the "starving hordes" find out who you are: some might be very surprised at the level of capabilities of others, including hardware, skill, and tactics. Or the number of rural neighbors who would enthusiastically work together for a common defense, and the skill level of many of those people.
Hopefully FEMA will keep the urban areas contained as necessary (which is about what they did during Katrina), as the alternative would be unpleasant.
USA Gun Owners Buy 14 Million Plus Guns In 2009 – More Than 21 of the Worlds Standing Armies Combined.
Plus, an estimated 14 billion rounds of ammunition.
http://www.ammoland.com/2010/01/13/gun-owners-buy-14-million-plus-guns-i...
It may be harder to steal food from the well prepared than you think.
Nobody likes a money system whereby the plutocracy of the Fed temple can knife you, hide the figures and manage the debate—even to the point of wiping out a nation’s savers with low interest rates.
The truth behind the Fed’s biased and often-manipulated government reporting tells a different story from the rosy picture the government paints. Here’s the perspective from John Williams’ Shadow Government Statistics (SGS), including the realistic inflation rate in the extensive commentary for subscribers.
Williams says that though the April 14 “numbers suggested contained inflation and good growth in retail sales, such happy reporting will prove fleeting. On the side of business activity, consumers lack the income and credit growth needed to support expanding…”
On the inflation front, Williams discusses the effects of higher oil prices pushing through the system, with U.S.-dollar denominated oil and states: “Key to explosive inflation growth ahead remains a savage sell-off in the U.S. dollar and dollar-denominated paper assets and/or heavy monetization of U.S. Treasury debt by the Federal Reserve. Both factors are likely to come into play in the next year, as an intensified economic downturn — ironically signaled by declining annual real growth in the broad money supply — blows apart projections for the federal budget deficit and related U.S. Treasury funding needs.”
John Williams’ Latest Commentary headlines:
April 16, 2010 - Housing Still Bottom-Bouncing * Production Set to Soften….
April 14, 2010 - Annual Inflation: 2.3% (CPI-U), 9.5% (SGS) * “Strong” Retail Sales Should Prove Fleeting * Trade Deficit Widened/Recession Is Not Over…
April 9, 2010 - Mounting Liquidity Squeeze Constrains Broad Business Activity…
April 2, 2010: - March Unemployment Rose to 9.8% Net of Census Hiring * Official Reporting: BLS U-3 Held at 9.7%, U-6 Rose to 16.9%, SGS Rose to 21.7% * March Employment Gain of 162,000 Was 114,000 Net of Temporary Census Hiring * Economic-Deterioration Signal Intensifies…
http://www.shadowstats.com/
Looking at most numbers it appears the big boost from restocking depleted inventories ends after Q1's numbers and the stimulus effect is 100% gone after Q2 so Q3 is almost a lock to be negative (the final number reported at least). Q2 will most likely barely stay positive at only about 1%.
Williams rocks! He predicted this stuff long ago.
I will start writing the blog in english. Hope you people appreciate and consult it. It has good charts and information from lot´s of sources. I think it will be usefull.
Good weekend and i want your colaboration people :)
http://midasfinancialmarkets.blogspot.com/
Iceland volcano. New Chinese real estate rules. Now GS and Merrill.
Holding my breath and eyeing the entrance to my bomb shelter.
Just about every high up official in World Gov'ts knows a huge economic crash is coming. They are geared up for the obvious. Are you.
I'm not sure what to make of this message on the US Mint site at
http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/CategoryDisplay?catalogId=10001&storeId=10001&categoryId=13738&langId=-1&parent_category_rn=10191&top_category=10191
It says:
Production of United States Mint American Eagle Silver Proof and Uncirculated Coins has been temporarily suspended because of unprecedented demand for American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins. Currently, all available silver bullion blanks are being allocated to the American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin Program, as the United States Mint is required by Public Law 99-61 to produce these coins “in quantities sufficient to meet public demand . . . .”
The United States Mint will resume the American Eagle Silver Proof and Uncirculated Coin Programs once sufficient inventories of silver bullion blanks can be acquired to meet market demand for all three American Eagle Silver Coin products.
Update: Due to the continued, sustained demand for American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins, 2009-dated American Eagle Silver Uncirculated Coins will not be produced.
You might want to change your handle to "Past Jim." The Mint's cranking out 2010-dated coins. Get all you want at tulving.com
ROFLMAO! I didn't write that update. I copied and pasted it from the US Mint's web site, and given that I provided a link to that page, you clearly did not perform your due diligence before spouting off.
Obviously you guys didn't read my post. I'm selling the fruit not eating it. Like I said I'm ready with everything...I'm just not posting every prep I've done. You people sound like a bunch of unprepared pussies. I did my homework. Tested the soil for PH, nitrogen, phosphorous, etc. Bought trees that would thrive in the Florida heat. This year I've set the fruit on the peaches, blackberries are flowering...customers are waiting. I didn't start a half ass farm. It's small but can produce an income I can live off if need be. I have no debt and a good job...this is all for the breakdown. Oh yes, I have fertilizer in storage...you name it I have it.
Don't cut me down because you have only fantasized about being prepared. I've work my ass off to get this going. I'm hedged in every way.
Bring it on...
chill dude! sounds like you have done your homework. i wish you good luck. we aren't all haters.
"I'm hedged in every way."
don't forget where you be posting mate.
Hope you're not in one of the Florida counties envisioned as part of the Republic of New Afrika. If all goes to hell in a handbasket in this country, it wouldn't surprise me to see it split up into multiple republics. I think I'll just stay out of the south, if you ask me!
But then maybe having your little farm collectivized into an Ujamaa community might not be so bad. Think of all the extra help you would get - for free! Ahh, diversity in action!
lol
You think societal meltdown cannot happen in America? Think again...
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rH6_i8zuffs
“I don’t want a stage of siege or to be a pawn of the International Monetary Fund,” she yelled amidst the noise and fires and police riding raging horses and bearing down with clubs and whips on the protesting Argentineans...
America, take note… of the ravages and impoverishment of billions for the bankers and debt for the people… These videos should be a must see for very American.
My emotions are totally exhausted; never seen anything like this. This is a terrifying reality of where America is headed if her growing pile of debt is not stopped! As davidwcooney commented:
Argentina HAD a vibrant economy where the people were well off. ? Monopolistic international corporations used their economic influence to bribe and otherwise manipulate government officials to pillage the county's wealth and send the people into dire poverty.
The results cannot be believed unless seen.
These snatches from the video commentary are becoming all too familiar in the United States:
What happened in Argentina? How was it possible that in so rich a country so many people were hungry… the counntry has been ransacked by a new form of aggression… a daily and silent violence… the never-ending debt…of impoverishment and corruption and the biggest scandal to enrich Argentinean financiers… to control finance and empty the county of its wealth.
Foreign debt…the policy of indebtedness favored banks and international corporations…19th century lobbyists…administrators of debts…fraudulent origins… depleted the public heritage…crisis and rising oil prices…birth of third-world debt…interest rates reach 16%…. bankruptcy of indebted countries…an alliance of foreign banks and mulitnationals comes to power in Argentina…bled dry…of which half is a private debt…23 billion is owed by multinationals operating in the country, like Citibank, First Boston, Chase Manhattan, Bank of America, Banco de Italila…. and by multinational corporations…the unending growth of debt… worst pillage ever suffered by the people…Thieves. Bankers. Government. …the police protecting the thieves…with government complicity…
Snatches of words from elderly protestors in fear they’ve lost their savings:
“A dollar at a time, I saved during the 25 years I worked so I could live decently when I retired, not on a State pension. Why don’t’ the banks treat us like their foreign customers?... Bombs are not my style. That’s why I’m banging on my pan…
“I’m the oldest newsvendor in Avellaneda. For 65 years I’ve sold newspaper. All of my saving are in Citibank. The manager of the agency says they’ll return them to me. It’s a lie! Everything I’ve saved by making sacrifices is in their hands…”
and from an official:
…in fact the foreign banks owe money to the Argentineans. In a way it’s a reverse debt. The parent companies must be responsible for the deposits…for the debts of their subsidiaries… it’s a swindle to make the government responsible for the debts of the banks…
Think it can’t happen here? As you say, TCE, "Think again." It’s already happening… Think bailout. Think unemployment. Think impoverishment. Think depleted savings. Think lost 401(k)s...
Thanks for the reality, Cynical. It blew my mind.
I'm hedged in every way.
Bring it on...
Never say "Bring it on."
I think I'm hedged...the guys who built the Maginot Line thought they were hedged. Everyone thinks they're hedged.
From Dad's Army series. Sadly I could not find a link to the video.
Cpt. George Mainwaring: I could have sworn that they would never break through the Maginot line.
Sgt. Arthur Wilson: Quite right sir, they didn't.
Cpt. George Mainwaring: I thought not. I'm a pretty good judge of these matters you know Wilson.
Sgt. Arthur Wilson: They went round the side.
Cpt. George Mainwaring: I see... they what!
Sgt. Arthur Wilson: They went round the side.
Cpt. George Mainwaring: That's a typical shabby Nazi trick, you see the sort of people we're up against Wilson.
Sgt. Arthur Wilson: Most unreliable sir
Anyone see this??? !!!!!
So Clinton said he was wrong to listen to Rubin and Summers about derivatives in an interview.
THEN, after the interview his relations guy sends an addendum saying that they "Rubin and Summers" AND Greenspan did a good job runnning the country.
Pretty funny huh???
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2010/04/clinton-rubin-and-summer...
With this Black Swan scenario playing itself out, Progressive Liberals will replace President Obama in a heart beat with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. -running the government from a bunker in Arkansas.
Absolutely 100% agree with him, glad I'm not alone.
dude, just nix the toilet paper and save the storage for food. do as the muslims (left hand) or as we did in the marines (right hand). get over it and dont be a wussie. the vast majority of the world's population dont use toilet paper and are more hygienic as a result. try it and see!
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